Solar Cycle Effects Research Articles

The Solar Magnetic Hump, Heliopause, and the Very Local Interstellar Medium

The magnetic hump was observed from 2020.4 to ∼2022 by Burlaga et al. who offered the hypothesis that it originated at the Sun during the declining phase of the solar cycle. Voyager 1 observed intermittency of 1 hr increments of the magnetic field from 2013 through 2019, as well as in the magnetic hump that began at the jump pf2 at 2020.4 and ended at ∼2022. Throughout this interval, the intermittency in the components of B and the magnitude B was described by the Tsallis distribution (q-Gaussian distribution). The q-Gaussian distributions have been observed throughout the solar wind and heliosheath. However, there was little or no intermittency in the 1 hr increments of the magnetic field observed by Voyager 1 from ∼2022.0 through day 270, 2023. During this interval Voyager 1 observed intermittency with a Gaussian distribution, which is associated with Boltzmann–Gibbs statistics. The boundary between these two regions, at ∼2022.0, coincides with the heliopause predicted by Fisk & Gloeckler. Alternatively, the Voyager 1 observations might be a solar cycle effect.

Seasonal Dependency of the Solar Cycle, QBO, and ENSO Effects on the Interannual Variability of the Wind DW1 in the MLT Region

AbstractThe migrating diurnal tide (DW1) is derived by fitting Hough Mode Extensions to the TIMED/TIDI near‐global wind measurements within the mesosphere and lower thermosphere between 85 and 100 km from 2004 to 2014. The tidal amplitude peaks around the equinoxes with a large interannual variability of up to 50%. The correlation coefficients between the tidal amplitude variability and the solar cycle as represented by F10.7, stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are calculated every 10 days revealing seasonal dependencies. The interannual variability is positively correlated with QBO from spring to fall, maximizing around the equinoxes; anti‐correlated to the solar cycle in early winter; and anti‐correlated to ENSO in early winter and slightly in March. Multivariate linear regressions are performed to quantitatively analyze the linear relationships between the DW1 amplitude and those factors. The fittings perform best with the QBO at 30 and 50 hPa both being considered. The contribution of QBO peaks around January and October may be related to the polar vortex modulated by QBO in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The correlation between the DW1 amplitude and ENSO is negative with time lags <∼5 months during early winter and spring.

Solar cycle effects in future measurements of low-energy atmospheric neutrinos

Solar cycle effects in future measurements of low-energy atmospheric neutrinos

The Variation of Ionospheric O+ and H+ Outflow on Storm Timescales

AbstractGeomagnetic storms are primarily driven by stream interaction regions (SIRs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Since SIR and CME storms have different solar wind and magnetic field characteristics, the magnetospheric response may vary accordingly. Using FAST/TEAMS data, we investigate the variation of ionospheric O+ and H+ outflow as a function of geomagnetic storm phase during SIR and CME magnetic storms. The effects of storm size and solar EUV flux, including solar cycle and seasonal effects, on storm time ionospheric outflow, are also investigated. The results show that for both CME and SIR storms, the O+ and H+ fluences peak during the main phase, and then declines in the recovery phase. However, for CME storms, there is also significant increase during the initial phase. Because the outflow starts during the initial phase in CME storms, there is time for the O+ to reach the plasma sheet before the start of the main phase. Since plasma is convected into the ring current from the plasma sheet during the main phase, this may explain why more O+ is observed in the ring current during CME storms than during SIR storms. We also find that outflow fluence is higher for intense storms than moderate storms and is higher during solar maximum than solar minimum.

Cosmic radiation exposure of airline crews in France over the period 2015–2019

Cosmic particle flux increases with latitude and altitude and is significantly higher on-board aircraft than at ground level. Furthermore, its intensity depends on solar activity and eruptions. Due to their professional activity, flight crews (FCs) may receive an annual dose of some millisieverts. Therefore, the European directive adopted in 1996 requires the aircraft operators to assess the dose. The effective dose is to be estimated using various experimental and calculation means. In France, it is carried out by the computerized system for flight assessment of exposure to cosmic radiation SIEVERTPN, which sends to SISERI, the national dose registry, the monthly effective dose of each crew member. The average annual effective dose of French FCs was 2.19 mSv in 2019, i.e. between the standard permissible limits set for the public and the limit set for occupationally exposed persons. The effective dose received by the most exposed French FCs increased during the period 2015–2019 and that could be due to the solar cycle effect, changes in the staff flight time or the aircraft model. It can also be noted that more technical flight crews (TFCs) received a dose greater than 5 mSv over the 2016 to 2019 period than commercial flight crew (CFCs). Our study indicates that the number of FCs having received a dose greater than 5 mSv also increased over the period 2016 to 2019. Some parameters, that may affect the assessment of the aircrew effective dose, are not considered in SIEVERTPN calculations, as for example the Forbush decreases and the location in the plane. Lastly, several factors lead us to expect a decrease in the doses received by French aircrew staff in the coming years, such as the peak activity of the 25th eleven-year solar cycle expected in July 2025. However, some unexpected events, as for instance the war in Ukraine, can alter this prediction.

Three-day Forecasting of Solar Wind Speed Using SDO/AIA Extreme-ultraviolet Images by a Deep-learning Model

In this study, we forecast solar wind speed for the next 3 days with a 6 hr cadence using a deep-learning model. For this we use Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly 211 and 193 Å images together with solar wind speeds for the last 5 days as input data. The total period of the data is from 2010 May to 2020 December. We divide them into a training set (January–August), validation set (September), and test set (October–December), to consider the solar cycle effect. The deep-learning model consists of two networks: a convolutional layer–based network for images and a dense layer–based network for solar wind speeds. Our main results are as follows. First, our model successfully predicts the solar wind speed for the next 3 days. The rms error (RMSE) of our model is from 37.4 km s−1 (for the 6 hr prediction) to 68.2 km s−1 (for the 72 hr prediction), and the correlation coefficient is from 0.92 to 0.67. These results are much better than those of previous studies. Second, the model can predict sudden increase of solar wind speeds caused by large equatorial coronal holes. Third, solar wind speeds predicted by our model are more consistent with observations than those by the Wang–Sheely–Arge–ENLIL model, especially in high-speed-stream regions. It is also noted that our model cannot predict solar wind speed enhancement by coronal mass ejections. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of deep learning for solar wind speed prediction, with potential applications in space weather forecasting.

Climatologies of Various OH Lines From About 90,000 X‐Shooter Spectra

AbstractThe nocturnal mesopause region of the Earth's atmosphere radiates chemiluminescent emission from various roto‐vibrational bands of hydroxyl (OH), which is therefore a good tracer of the chemistry and dynamics at the emission altitudes. Intensity variations can, for example, be caused by the general circulation, gravity waves, tides, planetary waves, and the solar activity. While the basic OH response to the different dynamical influences has been studied quite frequently, detailed comparisons of the various individual lines are still rare. Such studies can improve our understanding of the OH‐related variations as each line shows a different emission profile. We have therefore used about 90,000 spectra of the X‐shooter spectrograph of the Very Large Telescope at Cerro Paranal in Chile in order to study 10 years of variations of 298 OH lines. The analysis focuses on climatologies of intensity, solar cycle effect (SCE), and residual variability (especially with respect to time scales of hours and about 2 days) for day of year and local time. For a better understanding of the resulting variability patterns and the line‐specific differences, we applied decomposition techniques, studied the variability depending on time scale, and calculated correlations. As a result, the mixing of thermalized and nonthermalized OH level populations clearly influences the amplitude of the variations. Moreover, the local times of the variability features shift depending on the effective line emission height, which can mainly be explained by the propagation of the migrating diurnal tide. This behavior also contributes to remarkable differences in the effective SCE.

Long-term variabilities in thermal structure, CO2 concentration and associated cooling rates in the Earth's middle atmosphere: Observations and model simulations

Enhanced anthropogenic activities in the recent decades are ensuing in the large-scale accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the Earth's atmosphere. CO2 in the atmosphere induces warming in the troposphere and cooling in the middle atmosphere. A systematic analysis of the middle atmospheric thermal structure and its variability at decadal scale is need of the hour to perceive the consequences of increased anthropogenic activity in totality. In this regard, long-term variations of temperature, CO2 concentration and associated cooling rates in the middle and upper atmosphere (30–110 km) are investigated using Sounding of Atmosphere by Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) on board Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite observations during 2002–2021 and Specified Dynamics-Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) simulations during 2002–2017 over 50 N–50 S latitudes. The results show that CO2 concentration measured by SABER is significantly underestimated by the WACCM simulations, especially above 90 km altitude. In order to find the long-term trends in each variable, Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR) technique is employed to the residual data obtained after removing seasonal variations. SABER observations show decreasing trend in temperature with a rate of 0.5–2.5 K/decade and an increase in CO2 vmr of 16–18 ppmv/decade. The effect of Solar Cycle, QBO and ENSO on each of the variables is also investigated. The significance of the present study lies in evaluating the SD-WACCM simulations of long-term variabilities in the thermal structure, CO2 vmr and associated cooling rates using two decades of observations.

Phase-Locked Impact of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability

Abstract As an important external forcing, the effect of the 11-yr solar cycle on the tropical Pacific decadal variability is an interesting question. Here, we systematically investigate the phase-locking of the atmosphere and ocean covariations to the solar cycle in the tropical Pacific and propose a new mechanism to explain these decadal covariations. In both observation/reanalysis datasets and a solar cycle forced sensitivity experiment (named the SOL experiment), the ocean heat content anomalies (OHCa; 300 m) resemble a La Niña–like pattern in the solar cycle ascending phase, and the Walker circulation shifts westward. In the declining phase, the opposite is true. The accumulative solar irradiation directly contributes to this coherent decadal variability via changing the warm water volume and the solar-related heat is redistributed by the ocean dynamic processes. During the 11-yr solar cycle, the Pacific Walker circulation anomalies maintain the OHCa in the western equatorial Pacific and work as negative feedback for the eastern Pacific to help the OHCa phase transition. In addition, oceanic meridional heat transport via the subtropical cells and the propagation of off-equatorial Rossby waves also provide a lagged negative feedback to the OHCa phase transition according to the 11-yr solar cycle. The decadal coupled responses of the tropical Pacific climate system are 2 years more lag in the SOL experiment than in the observation/reanalysis. Significance Statement Here, we propose a new mechanism that the heating effect of the accumulative solar irradiation during the 11-yr solar cycle can be “integrated” into the tropical Pacific OHC and then provide a bottom-up effect on the atmosphere at decadal time scales. The strongly coupled processes in this region amplify the decadal phase-locking of the covariations to the 11-yr solar cycle. Our study demonstrates the role of the 11-yr solar cycle in the tropical Pacific decadal variability and provides a new explanation for the “bottom-up” mechanism of the solar cycle forcing. Our results update the understanding of the tropical Pacific decadal variability and may help to improve climate predictions at decadal time scales.

Solar Rotation Effects in Earth's and Mars' Thermospheric Densities as Revealed by Concurrent MAVEN, Swarm‐C, and GOES Observations

AbstractThe responses of Earth's and Mars' thermospheric densities to quasi‐periodic (∼27‐day) solar rotation variations in flux were measured contemporaneously by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, and Swarm‐C satellites. While large solar rotation variability is found in both planetary thermospheres, correlation analyses performed on over 6 years of observations reveal that, independently of extreme ultraviolet flux level, Earth's daytime density response is about 10%–50% larger than Mars' at a similar density level. Important altitude dependencies in the density sensitivity to the solar rotation in solar flux are found in the Martian thermosphere, while the terrestrial thermosphere is shown to exhibit only small (±5%) day/night and latitude variations in the response. Detailed analyses focused on correlative periods in 2015–2016 and 2020 indicate important solar cycle effects in the sensitivities of both planetary thermospheres, with increased slopes under low solar flux conditions. These results provide important new insights into processes relevant to the interpretation of the sources of short‐term density variability in Mars' and Earth's thermospheres associated with solar drivers and point to the need for targeted modeling efforts along with dedicated data analyses to help resolve current unknowns in thermal balance processes.

72‐Hour Time Series Forecasting of Hourly Relativistic Electron Fluxes at Geostationary Orbit by Deep Learning

AbstractIn this study, we forecast hourly relativistic (>2 MeV) electron fluxes at geostationary orbit for the next 72 hr using a deep learning model based on multilayer perceptron. The input data of the model are solar wind parameters (temperature, density and speed), interplanetary magnetic field (|B| and Bz), geomagnetic indices (Kp and Dst), and electron fluxes themselves. All input data are hourly averaged ones for the preceding 72 consecutive hours. We use electron flux data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)‐15 and ‐16, and perform a mapping for matching these two data. Total period of the data is from 2011 January to 2021 March (GOES‐15 data for 2011–2017 and GOES‐16 data for 2018–2021). We divide the data into training set (January–August), validation set (September), and test set (October–December) to consider the solar cycle effect. Our main results are as follows. First, our model successfully predicts hourly electron fluxes for the next 72 hr. Second, root‐mean‐square error of our model is from 0.18 (for 1 hr prediction) to 0.68 (for 72 hr prediction), and prediction efficiency is from 0.97 to 0.53, which are much better than those of the previous studies. Third, our model well predicts both diurnal variation and sudden increases of electron fluxes associated with fast solar winds and interplanetary magnetic fields. Our study implies that the deep learning model can be applied to forecasting long‐term sequential space weather events.

Three decades of remote sensing of NO2 vertical distribution and column content at the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics

The paper reviews the results of 30-year spectrometric measurements of vertical distribution and column content of NO2 at the Zvenigorod Scientific Station (ZSS) of the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics and presents analysis of NO2 long-term trends and interannual variations. The station is located in the western Moscow region. It is part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). Measurements are done in the morning and evening twilight by zenith-scattered visible solar radiation. Vertical NO2 profiles are retrieved and column NO2 contents are calculated by profile integration. Long term trends and inter-annual variations of NO2 are analysed by multivariate regression method taking into account autocorrelation of data in a wide range of time scales. Seasonally dependent estimates of NO2 trends and interannual variations due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, El Nino–Southern oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and the 11-year solar cycle are obtained. Most pronounced (in per cent units) trends and circulation and solar cycle effects are peculiar to the winter–spring period of the year. Mutual influence is assessed between the estimates of the trend and the solar cycle effect in stratospheric NO2.

A machine learning-based electron density (MLED) model in the inner magnetosphere

The plasma density is an important factor in determining wave-particle interaction in the magnetosphere. We develop a machine learning-based electron density (MLED) model in the inner magnetosphere using a data set of electron density from Van Allen Probes between September 25, 2012 and August 30, 2019. This MLED model is a physics-based nonlinear network that employs fundamental physical principles to represent the variation of electron density. It predicts the plasmapause location under different geomagnetic activities and models the electron density of the plasmasphere and trough separately. We train the model using gradient descent and backpropagation algorithms, which can be widely used to deal effectively with nonlinear relationships among physical quantities in space plasma environments. The model gives explicit expressions with few parameters and describes the association of electron density with geomagnetic activity, solar cycle, and seasonal effects. Under various geomagnetic conditions, the electron densities calculated by this model agree well with the observation and provide a good description of the plasmapause movement. This MLED model, which can be easily incorporated into the previously developed radiation belt model, would be very helpful in modeling and forecasting the radiation belt electron dynamics.

Heliospheric effects caused by Sun-originating versus LISM-advected fluctuations

Context. We investigate the response of the heliosphere to fluctuations in the local interstellar medium (LISM) as compared to the influence of solar-cycle fluctuations. Aims. We discuss the differences between effects coming from the two types of drivers of time-dependent effects in the heliosphere in the context of the shape of the heliosphere, the thickness of the inner heliosheath, and the position of the ribbon of enhanced energetic neutral particle emission, as observed by the IBEX mission. Methods. Our study is based on a comparison of fully time-dependent simulations obtained with a three-dimensional (3D) model of the heliosphere. Results. We show that density fluctuations, taking the form of entropy waves and originating from the LISM, may reduce the thickness of the inner heliosheath to a similar extent as the solar-cycle effects. However, the relative motions of the termination shock and the heliopause in the two types of simulations are different. The amplitude of variation of the heliopause position is greater for the LISM fluctuation. The IBEX ribbon position is shown to be not significantly affected by the two types of drivers, although the effect of LISM fluctuation is stronger than that of the solar cycle. In this context, slight systematic changes of the position of the IBEX ribbon in its different sectors (i.e., changes in the heliospheric nose followed by variations in the heliospheric flanks) may serve as an indicator of the passage of a density fluctuation in the LISM, as suggested by our study. We also discuss the difficulties in fitting the LISM parameters in the presence of time-dependent effects.

Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article)

Abstract. Floods in the Venice city centre result from the superposition of several factors: astronomical tides; seiches; and atmospherically forced fluctuations, which include storm surges, meteotsunamis, and surges caused by atmospheric planetary waves. All these factors can contribute to positive water height anomalies individually and can increase the probability of extreme events when they act constructively. The largest extreme water heights are mostly caused by the storm surges produced by the sirocco winds, leading to a characteristic seasonal cycle, with the largest and most frequent events occurring from November to March. Storm surges can be produced by cyclones whose centres are located either north or south of the Alps. Historically, the most intense events have been produced by cyclogenesis in the western Mediterranean, to the west of the main cyclogenetic area of the Mediterranean region in the Gulf of Genoa. Only a small fraction of the inter-annual variability in extreme water heights is described by fluctuations in the dominant patterns of atmospheric circulation variability over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Therefore, decadal fluctuations in water height extremes remain largely unexplained. In particular, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle does not appear to be steadily present if more than 100 years of observations are considered. The historic increase in the frequency of floods since the mid-19th century is explained by relative mean sea level rise. Analogously, future regional relative mean sea level rise will be the most important driver of increasing duration and intensity of Venice floods through this century, overcompensating for the small projected decrease in marine storminess. The future increase in extreme water heights covers a wide range, largely reflecting the highly uncertain mass contributions to future mean sea level rise from the melting of Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets, especially towards the end of the century. For a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), the magnitude of 1-in-100-year water height values at the northern Adriatic coast is projected to increase by 26–35 cm by 2050 and by 53–171 cm by 2100 with respect to the present value and is subject to continued increase thereafter. For a moderate-emission scenario (RCP4.5), these values are 12–17 cm by 2050 and 24–56 cm by 2100. Local subsidence (which is not included in these estimates) will further contribute to the future increase in extreme water heights. This analysis shows the need for adaptive long-term planning of coastal defences using flexible solutions that are appropriate across the large range of plausible future water height extremes.

The ionosphere of Mars from solar minimum to solar maximum: Dayside electron densities from MAVEN and Mars Global Surveyor radio occultations

Conditions in the ionosphere of Mars vary from solar minimum to solar maximum due to changes in the ionizing solar irradiance. Although changes in the main ionospheric layers, namely the M2 layer and the lower M1 layer, over the solar cycle have been well-characterized by previous work, corresponding changes in the upper regions of the photochemical ionosphere (∼140–200 km) have not. Here we investigate those changes using ionospheric electron density profiles acquired at solar zenith angles of 70°–90° under solar minimum conditions by the MAVEN Radio Occultation Science Experiment (ROSE) and under solar maximum conditions by a similar radio occultation experiment on Mars Global Surveyor. Due to the increase in ionizing irradiance from solar minimum to solar maximum, we expect that densities at all altitudes will increase from solar minimum to solar maximum. Due to the eccentricity of Mars’s orbit, observed electron density profiles must be adjusted to a common Mars–Sun distance to highlight solar cycle effects. This process involves increasing observed electron density values by a factor proportional to the Mars–Sun distance, which mitigates for variations in incident irradiance, and expressing altitude relative to the main ionospheric peak, which mitigates for variations in heating and expansion of the neutral thermosphere.We find that the scale height of the upper regions of the photochemical ionosphere is remarkably constant between solar minimum and solar maximum, whereas the corresponding neutral temperature increases by 50%. Yet these two quantities are thought to be proportional. Electron density values in the upper regions of the photochemical ionosphere and peak electron density values increase similarly from solar minimum to solar maximum.

Systemic lupus Erythematosus and geomagnetic disturbances: a time series analysis

BackgroundTo examine the influence of solar cycle and geomagnetic effects on SLE disease activity.MethodsThe data used for the analysis consisted of 327 observations of 27-day Physician Global Assessment (PGA) averages from January 1996 to February 2020. The considered geomagnetic indices were the AP index (a daily average level for geomagnetic activity), sunspot number index R (measure of the area of solar surface covered by spots), the F10.7 index (measure of the noise level generated by the sun at a wavelength of 10.7 cm at the earth’s orbit), the AU index (upper auroral electrojet index), and high energy (> 60 Mev) proton flux events. Geomagnetic data were obtained from the Goddard Space Flight Center Space Physics Data Facility. A time series decomposition of the PGA averages was performed as the first step. The linear relationships between the PGA and the geomagnetic indices were examined using parametric statistical methods such as Pearson correlation and linear regression, while the nonlinear relationships were examined using nonparametric statistical methods such as Spearman’s rho and Kernel regression.ResultsAfter time series deconstruction of PGA averages, the seasonality explained a significant fraction of the variance of the time series (R2 = 38.7%) with one cycle completed every 16 years. The analysis of the short-term (27-day) relationships indicated that increases in geomagnetic activity Ap index (p < 0.1) and high energy proton fluxes (> 60 Mev) (p < 0.05) were associated with decreases in SLE disease activity, while increases in the sunspot number index R anticipated decreases in the SLE disease activity expressed as PGA (p < 0.05). The short-term correlations became statistically insignificant after adjusting for multiple comparisons using Bonferroni correction. The analysis of the long-term (297 day) relationships indicated stronger negative association between changes in the PGA and changes in the sunspot number index R (p < 0.01), AP index (p < 0.01), and the F10.7 index (p < 0.01). The long-term correlations remained statistically significant after adjusting for multiple comparisons using Bonferroni correction.ConclusionThe seasonality of the PGA averages (one cycle every 16 years) explains a significant fraction of the variance of the time series. Geomagnetic disturbances, including the level of geomagnetic activity, sunspot numbers, and high proton flux events may influence SLE disease activity. Studies of other geographic locales are needed to validate these findings.

Cross‐Shock Electrostatic Potentials at Mars Inferred From MAVEN Measurements

AbstractA bow shock is generated by the interaction of the solar wind with the planetary global dipole field (e.g., Earth), or with (mainly) the planetary ionosphere (e.g., Mars). The cross‐shock potential has been well studied at Earth but not yet for Mars. We infer and approximate the peak in the frame invariant de Hoffmann‐Teller shock potential profile at Mars (ϕ) with data from the Mars Atmospheric and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission. We find that ϕ and its ratio to the solar wind ram ion energy (Eram) vary similarly against solar zenith angle (SZA, a proxy for the angle between the solar wind flow and the shock normal) and magnetic latitudes. Our results also reveal no significant dependence of the shock potential on parameters such as the angle between the upstream interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and the shock normal and plasma beta of upstream solar wind. There is a somewhat positive correlation with the magnetosonic Mach number and the magnetic amplification ratio across the shock. We also find a solar cycle effect on the shock location, closer to the planet near the solar minimum, as expected. Lastly, similarities and differences of cross‐shock potentials at Mars and Earth are discussed. Characterizing electron energization and high‐altitude ion loss at Mars is influenced by the bow shock and thereby the work here.

Interannual variations and long-term trends in total ozone over the North Caucasus

Results of analysis of variations in the total column ozone content measured at the Kislovodsk High-Altitude Scientific Station are presented. The station is located at a height of 2070 m in the North Caucasus 50 km north of the Main Caucasian Ridge and Mt. Elbrus, the highest summit in Europe. The total ozone content has been measured since 1989 with the Brewer MkII #043 spectrophotometer using standard methods. The 31-year series of observations has made it possible to analyze interannual variations and long-term trends in total ozone. The multiple regression method taking into account data autocorrelation in a wide range of time scales has been used. Seasonally dependent estimates of linear trends and interannual variations in total ozone associated with effects of the 11-year solar cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the equatorial stratosphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been obtained. The trends in total ozone over the North Caucasus contrast in sign from the trends of zonal mean total ozone. The annual trend in total ozone at the station was positive in 1989–2002 (1.6% per decade) and negative in 2003–2020 (−1.2% per decade). The strongest trends are characteristic of spring; they reach 4% per decade (in absolute value). Changes in total ozone during the 11-year solar cycle are especially significant in summer and amount to about 4%. The QBO-related interannual variations of total ozone with amplitude of about 6% are manifested in the cold season. The total ozone variations due to the NAO are pronounced in the winter-spring period. The ENSO effect on total ozone is noticeable in summer and lags approximately a year behind variations in sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region so that total ozone decreases after El Niño events and increases after La Niña events. The obtained characteristics of total ozone variability point at the evidence of a special character of interannual and multiyear evolutions of total ozone over the North Caucasus.

Long-term trend and solar cycle in the middle atmosphere temperature revealed from merged HALOE and SABER datasets

The middle atmosphere temperature trend and solar cycle have been studied with long-term ground-based and satellite datasets and/or model simulations. Single satellite observations for middle atmosphere temperature are not long enough (less than 2 solar cycles) to derive long-term trend and solar cycle effects with great confidence. Using a nearly 30-year dataset merged from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) observations between 1991 and 2005 and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) observations between 2002 and 2019, we study the long-term trend and solar cycle in the middle atmosphere temperature between 45°S and 45°N. The cooling trend is significant below 75 km with a maximum value of ~ -1.2 K/decade near 60–70 km in the southern hemisphere (SH) tropical and subtropical region. The SH cooling trend is larger than its counterpart in the northern hemisphere (NH). The trend derived from the SABER only dataset is ~1.5 times smaller than that derived from the merged dataset, which is consistent with the upper stratospheric ozone recovery after 1995. The positive temperature response to the 11-year solar cycle is ~1 K/100 solar flux units (sfu) in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere and increase to more than 2 K/100 sfu in the upper mesosphere of the middle latitudes. The temperature responses show clear hemispheric asymmetry with stronger responses below 70 km but weaker above in the SH than those in the NH. This is likely related to hemispheric asymmetry of wave activities induced by indirect solar radiation.