Solar Activity Oscillations Research Articles

Retraction

‘Retraction: Antero Ollila and Mauri Timonen, ‘Two main temperature periodicities related to planetary and solar activity oscillations', International Journal of Climatology, Volume 42, Issue 16 (30 December 2022), pp. 10407–10421.This article was retracted by agreement between the journal's Editors‐in‐Chief, Dr Enric Aguilar and Professor William Collins, the Royal Meteorological Society and John Wiley and Sons, Ltd. The retraction is due to the article containing scientific errors and unreliable data that render the conclusions of this article invalid. Following publication, concerns were raised by third parties regarding errors in the scientific data presented. An investigation was undertaken which confirmed these concerns. The authors were given an opportunity to reply, but their responses did not satisfactorily address these concerns.’

Retracted: Two main temperature periodicities related to planetary and solar activity oscillations

AbstractThe mechanism and even the existence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) have remained under debate among climate researchers, and the same applies to general temperature oscillations of a 60–90‐year period. The objective of this study is to show that these temperature oscillations are real and not artifacts and that these oscillations have different external cosmic origins. The authors have studied how well the variations of astronomical harmonic resonances (AHR) could explain the 60‐year temperature variations, which are based on instrumental records and on the tree‐ring data of the supra‐long Scots pine tree‐ring record for northern Finnish Lapland (subsequently called the Finnish timberline pine chronology [FTPC]), stretching to the year 5634 BC. Powerful volcanic eruptions have significant temperature‐decreasing impacts, and they are the major disturbances to eliminate in analysis. The similarities between the temperatures of the tree‐ring trend and the AHR trend are easy to observe even by the naked eye. The statistical analysis shows that these two signals are statistically related. The analyses also show that the well‐known Gleissberg cycle of 88 years is the dominating cycle caused by the Suns' activity changes but the observed 60‐year cycle can be connected to the AHR cyclicity.

Shape of solar cycles and mid-term solar activity oscillations

ABSTRACT The evolution of solar activity comprises, apart from the well-known 11-year cycle, various temporal scales ranging from months up to the secondary cycles known as mid-term oscillations. Its nature deserves a physical explanation. In this work, we have considered the 5–6 year oscillations as derived both from sunspots and solar magnetic dipole time series. Using a solar dynamo model, we have deduced that these variations may be a manifestation of dynamo non-linearities and the non-harmonic shape of the solar activity cycles. We have concluded that the observed mid-term oscillations are related to the non-linear saturation of dynamo processes in the solar interior.

On a role of quadruple component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cycles

In this paper we revise our prediction of solar activity using a solar background magnetic field as a proxy by the inclusion of eigen vectors of solar magnetic waves produced by quadruple magnetic sources, in addition to the principal eigen modes generated by two-layer dipole sources (Zharkova et al., 2015). By considering the interference of two dipole and one quadruple waves we produce the revised summary curve for the last 400 years accounting for the additional minima of solar activity occurred at the beginning of 19th (Dalton minimum) and 20th centuries. Using the dynamo model with meridional circulation and selecting the directions of circulation for quadruple waves, we estimate the parameters of quadrupole waves best fitting the observations in the past grand cycle. The comparison shows that the quadruple wave has to be generated in the inner layer of the solar convective zone, in order to provide the additional minima observed in 19 and 20 centuries, thus, naturally accounting for Gleissberg centennial cycle. The summary dynamo wave simulated for the dipole and quadruple sources reveals much closer correspondence of the resulting summary curve derived from the principal components of magnetic field variations to the solar activity oscillations derived from the average sunspot numbers in the current grand cycle.

Relationship between phases of quasi-decadal oscillations of total ozone and the 11-year solar cycle

Temporal variability of the relationship between the phases of quasi-decadal oscillations (QDOs) of total ozone (TO), measured at the Arosa station, and the Ri international sunspot number have been analyzed for the period of 1932–2009. Before the 1970s, the maximum phase of ozone QDOs lagged behind solar activity variations by about 2.5–2.8 years and later outstripped by about 1.5 years. We assumed that the TO QDOs in midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were close to being in resonance with solar activity oscillations in the period from the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s and assessed the characteristic delay period of TO QDOs. The global distribution of phases and amplitudes of TO QDOs have been studied for the period from 1979 to 2008 based on satellite data. The maximum phase of TO QDOs first onsets in northern middle and high latitudes and coincides with the end of the growth phase of the 11-year solar cycle. In the tropics, the maximum oscillation phase lags behind by 0.5–1 year. The maximum phase lag near 40–50° S is about two years. The latitudinal variations of the phase of TO QDOs have been approximated.

Relation between quasi-decadal and quasi-biennial oscillations of solar activity and the equatorial stratospheric wind

We have established that quasi-decadal and quasibiennial oscillations of zonal wind velocity in the equatorial stratosphere are coherent with similar oscillations of the solar activity (SA). The time lag of wind velocity oscillations at the isobaric surface 15 hPa (~28 km) relative to SA index F10.7 is approximately equal to 1 yr at both periods. During the period of SA maximum in the 1990s, coherent behavior of the equatorial stratospheric wind (ESW) and the SA was observed at all time scales from 1 to 10 yr. After a distortion in the coherency in 1994, a high coherency was observed again in 2001‐2005, but with a simultaneous change of its sign at the scales of the periods of the solar cycle and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The amplitudes of variations in the ESW velocity are maximal at the 15 hPa level. Quasi-decadal variations in the ESW above and below the 20‐30 hPa layer are generally in opposite phase to each other. At the boundary of the 50‐15 hPa layer, they are exactly in opposite phase to each other. Recently, the influence of the solar activity on the circulation of the Earth’s stratosphere has been studied intensely. The results obtained in a number of works (for example, [1‐4]) evidence that 11-yr variations in the SA affect the polar stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere (in particular, the stratospheric polar vortex), depending on the QBO phase of the zonal wind velocity in the equatorial stratosphere. Thereby, the important role of the QBO of the ESW in the variations of large-scale stratospheric circulation was found at the scale of oscillations of approximately 10 yr. The authors of [5, 6] showed that the QBO of the ESW is realized mainly in the form of alternating series of oscillations with periods of about 2 and 2.5 yr. Moreover, alteration of the series is coherent with the 11-yr cycle of the SA. Variations with such periods were also found in ozone, temperature, and wind in the mid-latitude stratosphere and troposphere [7]. We note that the existence of variations with these periods can lead to variations with a period of 10 yr owing to nonlinear atmospheric dynamics [5, 6]. This can create difficulties in distinguishing the sources of such variations in the Earth’s atmosphere and their relation to the SA variations.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillations of Global Solar-Activity Indices

Quasi-biennial oscillations of solar activity are investigated using several global indices. The Singular Spectrum Analysis is used to separate out and study quasi-biennial oscillations; this method is one of the modifications of the main components method. The principal components of the solar cycle are stable 11-year, secular, and quasi-biennial variations. The periods and shapes of individual variations in each quasi-biennial train depend on the length and power of the particular 11-year cycle.

The 11-year solar cycle, the Sun's rotation, and the middle stratosphere in winter. Part II: Response of planetary waves

The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the response of planetary wavenumbers 1 and 2 at 10 and 30 hPa in winter to solar activity oscillations on the time scale of the Sun's rotation (27.2 day) is discussed in terms of statistical spectral analysis. The three oscillations studied are the 27.2 d (period of the Sun's rotation), 25.3 d (periodicity caused by modulation of the 27.2 d stratospheric response by annual atmospheric variation), and 54.4 d (doubled period of the solar rotation). A significant effect of the 11-year solar cycle is found for the 54.4 d periodicity in planetary wavenumber 1, and for the 27.2 and 25.3 d periodicities in planetary wavenumber 2. The effect of the 11-year solar cycle is expressed in the evident differences between the amplitudes of responses of planetary waves at maximum and minimum of the solar cycle: the amplitudes are much larger at high than at low solar activity. The 11-year modulation of planetary wave activity is most pronounced at mid-latitudes, mainly at 40–60°N, where the observed variability of planetary waves is large. The results obtained are in good agreement with results of the recent modeling study by Shindell et al. (Science 284 (1999) 305).

The 11-year solar cycle, the 27-day Sun's rotation and the area of the stratospheric Aleutian high

The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the 30-hPa geopotential height and temperature fields in the area of the Aleutian high caused by solar activity oscillations resulting from the Sun's rotation (27.2 d) is investigated, applying methods of statistical cross-spectral analysis to daily data for the period from 1965 to 1998. The area of the stratospheric Aleutian high is considered as an indicator of the solar influence on the winter stratosphere proceeding from the results by LABITZKE and VAN LOON (1988), and VAN LOON and LABITZKE (1990). An effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the response of the summer middle stratosphere to solar activity oscillations on the time scale of the Sun's rotation is not found. In contrast to summer, the atmospheric responses in winter demonstrate clear differences between maximum and minimum of the 11-year solar cycle for the 27.2 d solar rotation periodicity and for the two other oscillations of 29.4 d and 25.3 d, resulting from the modulation of the 27.2 d solar-induced periodicity by the annual atmospheric variation. The atmospheric response for the fourth periodicity studied, the 17 d oscillation, which is supposed to be a normal mode of the atmosphere, close to the known 16-day wave (MADDEN, 1978), also shows a clear dependence on the 11-year solar cycle. For all the periodicities studied the coherence between the 10.7 cm solar radio flux and the 30-hPa height/temperature fields in the Aleutian high area in winter is on the average stronger at maxima than at minima of the 11-year solar cycle. The corresponding amplitudes of the solar-induced geopotential height and temperature perturbations are also larger at high than at low solar activity, with the largest differences revealed at the moderate and polar latitudes. Thus, we conclude that the response of the winter 30-hPa height/temperature fields in the area of the Aleutian high to solar oscillations on the time scale of the Sun's rotation is on the average stronger at high than at low solar activity. We suppose that the influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the stratospheric Aleutian high area includes the modulation of the intensity of interaction between the solar induced 27 d oscillation and seasonal atmospheric variations.

The 11-year solar cycle, the sun’s rotation, and the middle stratosphere in winter: Part I: Response of zonal means

The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the response of the stratospheric geopotential height and temperature fields at 10 and 30 hPa in winter to solar activity oscillations with periods related to the period of the Sun’s rotation (27.2 days) is discussed, applying methods of statistical spectral analysis to daily data for the period from 1965 to 1996. Atmospheric responses for three periodicities — 27.2 days (period of the Sun’s rotation), 25.3 days (periodicity caused by the modulation of the 27.2 days oscillation by annual atmospheric variation), and 54.4 days (doubled period of the solar rotation) — are studied. A significant effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the atmospheric response to the 27.2 days solar periodicity has not been found. We explain it by a frequency shift of the response from the 27.2 days to the 25.3 days periodicity via amplitude modulation. For the 25.3 days oscillation, prominent differences between the maximum and minimum of the 11-year solar cycle have been found in the coherence between the 10.7 cm solar radio flux and the height/temperature fields: the relationships are stronger at solar maximum than at the minimum of the 11-year cycle. The same differences, but to a greater extent, are revealed for the oscillation with a period of 54.4 days. Coherence and amplitude estimates for this doubled solar rotation periodicity exhibit strong differences between extrema of the 11-year solar cycle. Phase estimates also demonstrate a clear difference between high and low solar activity: on the average, the delay of the atmospheric response after the solar signal is smaller at solar maximum than at solar minimum. Thus, we conclude that the mechanism of the influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the winter middle stratosphere can include both a direct effect of the frequency corresponding to the doubled solar rotation periodicity and an indirect effect of modulation of the intensity of the interaction between the solar 27.2 days oscillation and seasonal atmospheric variations.

The common oscillations of solar activity, the geomagnetic field, and the Earth's rotation

An oscillation with a period around 5.5 years is identified as being common to the geomagnetic field, the Earth's rotation, and solar activity variations. The large extrema of the cross-correlation functions and their oscillatory character are considered to be indicators of a physical relation between geophysical and solar phenomena.

Response of stratospheric circulation at 10 mb to solar activity oscillations resulting from the sun's rotation

Indices, which reflect variations of the zonal geostrophic wind at the 10-mb-surface of the northern hemisphere, are compared with solar activity fluctuations applying methods of statistical frequency analysis. At a frequency corresponding to half the synodic rotation period of the sun, a significant response of the stratospheric circulation to solar activity is found for nearly all latitudes between 10 and 80° N. Considering the detailed coherency spectra it is suggested that a stratospheric “system”, e.g. a high or low pressure belt with an average position near 50° N, oscillates with the synodic period of the solar rotation. The periodic variations are probably modulated by annual, semiannual and 4-monthly oscillations of the solar radiation or of stratospheric quantities. Satellite measurements of the stratospheric radiance (temperature) indicate that the response to solar activity fluctuations resulting in quasiperiodic changes of stratospheric properties with half the rotation period of the sun, is a global phenomenon. DOI: 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1977.tb00707.x

Sunspots and Human Affairs

Two papers by W. G. Bowerman (Pop, Astron., 52, March, April, May, 1944) discuss the rather indefinite subject of the relations between sunspots and terrestrial conditions. The first illustrates a close parallelism between sunspot numbers and the total mortgage loans on residential property in the United States. This held during 1923–38 but broke down in 1939, presumably owing to the disturbance caused by the War. The second and longer paper describes in a 'popular' manner the quasi-periodic nature of outbreaks of sunspots and a good deal of recent American literature on relations between sunspot numbers and extremes of temperature and precipitation, as well as such indirect effects as industrial activity, forest fires and outbreaks of tropical diseases. The author accepts the views of Ellsworth Huntington and C A. Mills that the major economic and cultural cycles of historical times result from long-period oscillations of solar activity, acting through average temperature, which in turn controls both the spread of disease organisms and the power of man to resist or cope with them. Within the 11-year cycle there is a 'sharp upthrust' of temperature near sunspot minimum, but the relations are complicated by volcanic eruptions.