Observations Of Solar Activity Research Articles

The Extreme Space Weather Event of 1872 February: Sunspots, Magnetic Disturbance, and Auroral Displays

We review observations of solar activity, geomagnetic variation, and auroral visibility for the extreme geomagnetic storm on 1872 February 4. The extreme storm (referred to here as the Chapman–Silverman storm) apparently originated from a complex active region of moderate area (≈ 500 μsh) that was favorably situated near disk center (S19° E05°). There is circumstantial evidence for an eruption from this region at 9–10 UT on 1872 February 3, based on the location, complexity, and evolution of the region, and on reports of prominence activations, which yields a plausible transit time of ≈29 hr to Earth. Magnetograms show that the storm began with a sudden commencement at ≈14:27 UT and allow a minimum Dst estimate of ≤ −834 nT. Overhead aurorae were credibly reported at Jacobabad (British India) and Shanghai (China), both at 19.°9 in magnetic latitude (MLAT) and 24.°2 in invariant latitude (ILAT). Auroral visibility was reported from 13 locations with MLAT below ∣20∣° for the 1872 storm (ranging from ∣10.°0∣–∣19.°9∣ MLAT) versus one each for the 1859 storm (∣17.°3∣ MLAT) and the 1921 storm (∣16.°2∣ MLAT). The auroral extension and conservative storm intensity indicate a magnetic storm of comparable strength to the extreme storms of 1859 September (25.°1 ± 0.°5 ILAT and −949 ± 31 nT) and 1921 May (27.°1 ILAT and −907 ± 132 nT), which places the 1872 storm among the three largest magnetic storms yet observed.

A Catalog of Geoefficient Flare Events of the Current 25th Solar Cycle in a Modern Presentation

To study the phenomena occurring on the Sun and in interplanetary space and their influence on near-Earth space and on processes in the outer and inner shells of the Earth, the results of continuous long-term observations of solar activity become very valuable. A representative collection of such long-term homogeneous series of systematic observations obtained by the worldwide network of solar and astronomical observatories, as well as by spacecraft, has been collected at the World Data Center for Solar–Terrestrial Physics in Moscow. The article describes a cumulative interactive catalog of the main characteristics of significant solar-flare events of the current 25th cycle of solar activity.

ВЛИЯНИЕ ЦИКЛИЧЕСКОЙ СОЛНЕЧНОЙ АКТИВНОСТИ НА ПОКАЗАТЕЛИ НАСИЛЬСТВЕННОЙ СМЕРТИ

The article is devoted to the study of the influence of solar activity on mortality from violent causes (by the example of various kinds of violent death). Research material: astronomical observations of solar activity; demographic indicators of Russia; statistical indicators of the activities of the Bureau of Forensic Medical examination of the country and St. Petersburg over the past 25 years; database of murderers. Methods: isolation and fixation of information, grouping of data, frequency analysis, correlation analysis, comparison, analysis and generalization of the revealed patterns. It was found that the number of sudden deaths suspected of violent death (as a result of diseases of the cardiovascular or nervous system, oncological or infectious diseases) directly correlates with the Wolf–Schwabe number (correlation coefficient from 0.21 to 0.40, p<0.05). For the specific number of suicides, the correlation coefficient is 0.24 (p<0.01), for the specific number of murders – 0.46 (p<0.05), for the specific number of accidents (for example, fatal cold injury) – 0.50 (p<0.01). The coefficient of linear correlation between the number of future murderers born during the year and the number of sunspots in the previous year (year of conception) is 0.36 (p<0.05). In the control group (men with no criminal history), the correlation coefficient of the number of births and the Wolf-Schwabe number is 0.12 (p<0.05). The data obtained indicate a significant influence of solar activity on the processes taking place in society, affecting various elements – from the economy and public health to public safety. Currently, there is an increase in solar activity, the peak of which is projected to reach in 2025, which requires adequate consideration when planning health resources.

Heliophysics and space weather science at ∼1.5 AU: Knowledge gaps and need for space weather monitors at Mars

This perspective article discusses the knowledge gaps and open questions regarding the solar and interplanetary drivers of space weather conditions experienced at Mars during active and quiescent solar periods, and the need for continuous, routine observations to address them. For both advancing science and as part of the strategic planning for human exploration at Mars by the late 2030s, now is the time to consider a network of upstream space weather monitors at Mars. Our main recommendations for the heliophysics community are the following: 1. Support the advancement for understanding heliophysics and space weather science at ∼1.5 AU and continue the support of planetary science payloads and missions that provide such measurements. 2. Prioritize an upstream Mars L1 monitor and/or areostationary orbiters for providing dedicated, continuous observations of solar activity and interplanetary conditions at ∼1.5 AU. 3. Establish new or support existing 1) joint efforts between federal agencies and their divisions and 2) international collaborations to carry out #1 and #2.

Application of historic datasets to understanding open solar flux and the 20th-century grand solar maximum. 2. Solar observations

We study historic observations of solar activity from the 20th-century rise towards the peak of the Modern Grand Solar Maximum (MGSM) and compare with observations of the decline that has occurred since. The major difference in available solar observations of the rise and of the fall are accurate magnetograms from solar magnetographs: we here use synthetic magnetograms to interpret the rise and employ historic observations of Polar Crown Filaments to test them and verify their use. We show that eclipse images at sunspot minimum reveal the long-term variation of open flux deduced from geomagnetic observations in Paper 1 (Lockwood et al., 2022). We also make use of polar coronal hole fluxes derived from historic white light images of polar faculae, but have to consider the implications of the fact that these facular images do not tell us the polarity of the field. Given this caveat, the agreement between the polar coronal hole fluxes and the values derived from open flux continuity modelling based on sunspot numbers is extremely good. This comparison indicates that one possible solution to the “open flux problem” is open flux within the streamer belt that potential-based modelling of coronal fields from photospheric fields is not capturing. We take a detailed look at the solar cycle at the peak of the MGSM, cycle 19, and show the variation of the polar coronal hole fluxes and the inferred poleward flux surges are predictable from the asymmetries in flux emergence in the two hemispheres with implied transequatorial flux transfer and/or “anti-Hale” (or more general “rogue” active region flux) emergence late in the sunspot cycle.

Eleven-year solar cycles over the last millennium revealed by radiocarbon in tree rings

The Sun provides the principal energy input into the Earth system and solar variability represents a significant external climate forcing. Although observations of solar activity (sunspots) cover only the last about 400 years, radionuclides produced by cosmic rays and stored in tree rings or ice cores serve as proxies for solar activity extending back thousands of years. However, the presence of weather-induced noise or low temporal resolution of long, precisely dated records hampers cosmogenic nuclide-based studies of short-term solar variability such as the 11-yr Schwabe cycle. Here we present a continuous, annually resolved atmospheric 14C concentration (fractionation-corrected ratio of 14CO2 to CO2) record reconstructed from absolutely dated tree rings covering nearly all of the last millennium (ad 969–1933). The high-resolution and precision 14C record reveals the presence of the Schwabe cycle over the entire time range. The record confirms the ad 993 solar energetic particle event and reveals two new candidates (ad 1052 and ad 1279), indicating that strong solar events that might be harmful to modern electronic systems probably occur more frequently than previously thought. In addition to showing decadal-scale solar variability over the last millennium, the high-temporal-resolution record of atmospheric radiocarbon also provides a useful benchmark for making radiocarbon dating more accurate over this interval.

Observation of Disturbed Plasma Structures in the Environment of the Sun and Near-Earth Space with Radio Sounding and Local Measurements

An experiment on radio sounding of the circumsolar plasma by signals from the Mars Express spacecraft in 2013 was carried out in the period from March 4 through May 31. The investigated characteristics were the frequency of signals in the centimeter and decimeter ranges and the differential frequency. A number of events were recorded in which the intensity of the frequency fluctuations of the signals probing the plasma was several times higher than the background values. As shown by the analysis of observations of solar activity, such as an increase in the flux of X-rays and SOHO LASCO coronagraph data, this is explained by the passage of disturbed plasma streams generated in the solar corona through the spacecraft radio communication path with the Earth. The comparison of the radio transmission data with the results of measurements of the parameters of the near-Earth plasma using the Wind spacecraft in adjacent periods of time. As a result of the analysis of the data on the proton concentration, it became clear that sharp increases in both the average values and fluctuations of this characteristic were also observed near the Earth. The time lag between the events observed in the circumsolar and near-Earth plasma shows that the cause of the disturbances is the increased activity of the same coronal region rotating with the Sun.

New evidence of the Suess/de Vries cycle existing in historical naked-eye observations of sunspots

AbstractSolar activity affects geophysical and heliophysical processes. Long-term changes in solar activity are closely related to climate change. Solar physicists and earth science researchers need longer observations of solar activity. Current continuous observations of solar activity are only about 400 years. Some scholars have compiled naked-eye observations of sunspots from 200 BC to 1918 AD from historical documents. In this present work, the authors use the weighted wavelet transform to study the observations series. The results show the Suess - de Vries cycle with a period from 195- to 235-year existing in the discontinuous sunspot series. Meanwhile, the cycle signal changes with time. Especially, the Suess/de Vries cycle is relatively obvious from 200 BC to 400 AD, 800 AD to 1340 AD, 1610 AD to 1918 AD, with a period of about 211-year, about 195-year, and about 235-year, respectively.

Closing up onto our sun: solar imaging

Solar activity research provides insight into the Sun’s past, future (Science Daily, 2018). The solar activity includes observations of large numbers of intense sunspots, flares, and other phenomena; and demands a wide range of techniques and measurements on the observations. This research needs long term data collection before critical analyses can occur, to generate meaningful learning and knowledge. In this project, we will use solar imaging to make observations of solar activity, and take our baby steps to make contributions in citizen science. Observations will be made in 3 wavelengths to gain a more thorough analysis by looking at different perspectives of the Sun, namely H-Alpha, Calcium-K, and white light.

Meteospace, a New Instrument for Solar Survey at the Calern Observatory

High cadence observations of solar activity (active regions, flares, filaments) in the Hα line were performed at Meudon and Haute Provence Observatories from 1956 to 2004. More than 7 million images were recorded, mainly on 35 mm films. After a review of the scientific interest of solar surveys at high temporal resolution and the historical background, we describe the new instrument which will operate automatically in 2020 at the Calern station of the Cote d’Azur observatory (1270 m). It will replace the former heliographs with improved cadence, seeing and time coverage. We summarize the capabilities of the optical design and present new scientific perspectives in terms of flare onset and Moreton wave detection.

A Study of Variation of the 11-yr Solar Cycle before the onset of the Spoerer Minimum based on Annually measured 14C Content in tree Rings

ABSTRACTProxy-based observations of solar activity in the past have revealed long-term variations, such as the Gleissberg cycle (~88 yr), de Vries cycle (~200 yr), and the Hallstatt cycle (~2000 yr). Such long-term variations of solar activity sometimes cause the disappearance of sunspots for several decades. Currently, solar activity is becoming weaker, and there is a possibility that another long-term sunspot minimum could occur. However, the detailed mechanism of the weakening in solar activity is unknown, and the prediction of solar activity is ambiguous. In this study, we investigate the transitions of solar cycle length before the onset of the Spoerer Minimum, the longest grand minimum in the past 2000 yr. We measured the 14C content in an asunaro tree (Thujopsis dolabrata) excavated at Shimokita Peninsula from 1368–1420 CE using the compact AMS system at Yamagata University. It is found that the solar cycle lengthened to be 14–16 yr from 2 cycles before the onset of the Spoerer Minimum.

An automated system in detecting solar radio bursts type II and IV associated to multiple Coronal Mass Ejections

This paper presents an automated system named as CALLISTO which is implemented to record solar radio bursts emissions associated to solar activity. CALLISTO is a spectrometer used in solar activity observations in order to monitor the Sun’s activity and behaviour and also as an indicator of upcoming solar events. Solar radio bursts type II is known as slow drift going from high to low frequency at a range of 20 MHz-150 MHz. It is found to be associated to Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) travelling at a very high speed. On 4th November 2015, type II and IV bursts were detected by Almaty and Bir station respectively along with multiple formation of CMEs throughout the day. Due to the shock wave from CMEs, a minor G1 storm was triggered on 7th November 2015 leaving an aurora scenery over the skies of several states in USA. However, no damages on power systems were reported. Comprehensive discussions on this event are discussed in this paper.

Observation of a time lag in solar modulation of cosmic rays in the heliosphere

The solar modulation effect of Galactic cosmic rays is a time-dependent phenomenon that is caused by the transport of these particles through the magnetized plasma of the heliosphere. Using a data-driven model of cosmic-ray transport in the heliosphere, in combination with a large collection of data, we report the evidence for a eight-month time lag between observations of solar activity and measurements of cosmic-ray fluxes in space. As we will discuss, this result enables us to forecast the cosmic ray flux at Earth well in advance by monitoring solar activity. We also compare our predictions with the new multi-channel measurements of cosmic rays operated by the AMS experiment in space.

Solar Activity Observations at the World Data Center for Solar–Terrestrial Physics

Solar Activity Observations at the World Data Center for Solar–Terrestrial Physics

On the critical mass of greenhouse gas

In recent years, changes in the Earth’s climate have raised concern all around the globe. Climatologists have been drawing connections between global warming and a growing number of natural disasters, unexpected temperature fluctuations in some regions of the world and a number of other climatic aberrations. Within the scientific community, the opinions as to the nature and mechanism of the Earth’s climate change have split. Some contend that since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the carbon dioxide levels in the air have been steadily rising due to human production activities. Along with other gases, carbon dioxide has been inculpated for the greenhouse effect. In connection with this, a number of recent international conferences have adopted resolutions to reduce carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. Another group of climatologists bases its findings on observations of solar activity, arguing that global warming is caused by a recurring spike in solar activity, with the current increase due to end soon, potentially giving way to a new ice age down the road. In the following work, we put forth yet another hypothesis regarding global warming. The influence of four main positive feedback loops caused by the secondary emission of water vapor, NI 2 , NI 4 , and decreased albedo on the earth climate system is shown on the basis of the general theory of feedback. If the present level of primary anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gas (GhG) keeps, the total mass of atmospheric greenhouse gas can run up to such a critical value that the mentioned feedbacks, which give rise to self-amplification of the greenhouse effect, can cause the bifurcation transition of the climate system to the state of self-heating tending to the unlimited rise of mean temperature of the earth surface.

Quasi ~500-year Cycle Signals in Solar Activity

Direct observations of solar activity are available for the past four century, so some proxies reflecting solar activity such as 14C, 10Be and geomagnetic variations are used to reconstruct solar activity in the past. In this present paper, the authors use rectified wavelet power transform and time-averaged wavelet power spectrum to investigate long-term fluctuations of the reconstructed solar activity series. Results show obvious a quasi ~500-year cycle exists in the past solar activity. Three reconstructed solar activity series from 14C variations confirm the periodic signals.

Space Weather Parameters: Modeling and Prediction from the Data of Groundbased Observations of Solar Activity

We consider the prospects for developing a forecast system for space weather (SPW) parameters with the use of home facilities for groundbased observations of solar activity. The space weather forecast can be conventionally divided into three components: (i) the prediction of recurrent, slowly changing events connected with the topology of the large-scale magnetic field, (ii) the estimation of fluxes of UV and high-energy radiation, and (iii) the observation of high-speed phenomena, such as solar flares and eruption processes, and the prediction of their consequences at the the Earth’s orbit. At present, to predict recurrent events, data from regular observations of the large-scale field of the Sun by the solar telescope–magnetographs for operative (realtime) prediction (STOP) are effectively used. To estimate high-energy fluxes, to register eruption events, and to estimate their geoefficiency, data from the patrol optical telescope–spectrographs may be used. Patrol telescopes operate in automatic mode and register the processes with an interval of approximately one minute. To detect eruption processes, we propose a method based on the difference between the intensity values in the wings of chromospheric spectral lines. The results of the use of the observational complex of the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station for the SW forecast are considered in the paper.

Comparison of Helioseismic Far-Side Active Region Detections with STEREO Far-Side EUV Observations of Solar Activity

Seismic maps of the Sun's far hemisphere, computed from Doppler data from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) are now being used routinely to detect strong magnetic regions on the far side of the Sun (http:/jsoc.stanford.edu/data/farside/). To test the reliability of this technique, the helioseismically inferred active region detections are compared with far-side observation of solar activity from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO), using brightness in extreme ultraviolet light (EUV) as a proxy for magnetic fields. Two approaches are used to analyze nine months of STEREO and HMI data. In the first approach, we determine whether or not new large east-limb active regions are detected seismically on the far side before they appear Earth side and study how the detectability of these regions relates to their EUV intensity. We find that, while there is a range of EUV intensities for which far-side regions may or may not be detected seismically, there appears to be an intensity level above which they are almost always detected and an intensity level below which they are never detected. In the second approach, we analyze concurrent extreme ultraviolet and helioseismic far-side observations. We find that 100% (22) of the far-side seismic regions correspond to an extreme ultraviolet plage; 95% of these either became a NOAA-designated magnetic region when reaching the east limb or were one before crossing to the far side. A low but significant correlation is found between the seismic signature strength and the EUV intensity of a farside region.

The anisotropy of kinetic and current helicity

A three-dimensional model for thermal convection with a dynamo in a rotating planar layer heated from below is used to investigate the behavior of the mean kinetic and current helicities. In spite of the presence of gravity and rotation, which introduce anisotropy into the system, the components of the helicity determined from the field components in the directions tangent and normal to the boundary have similar values. The existence of a separation by scale, when the current helicity has different signs on different spatial scales, is demonstrated. The number of regions where the sign of the helicity does not coincide with the sign of its mean value in that region is estimated (∼43−45% of the total number of regions). The estimates presented are relevant for interpretations of observations of solar activity and analysis of the properties of rotating magnetohydrodynamical turbulence.

Testing the Reliability of Predictions of Far-Side Active Regions from Helioseismology Using STEREO Far-Side Observations of Solar Activity

We test the reliability of helioseismic far-side active-region predictions, made using Dopplergrams from both the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG), by comparison with far-side observation of solar activity from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO). Both GONG and HMI produce seismic Carrington maps that show strong magnetic-field regions, labeling predictions of far-side active regions that have a probability ≥ 70 %. By visual comparison of these prediction maps with STEREO extreme ultraviolet (EUV) Carrington maps, we determine whether or not solar activity, as evidenced as brightness in EUV, is observed at the predicted locations. We analyzed nine months of data from 2011 and 2012. For both GONG and HMI, we find that for approximately 90 % of the active-region predictions, activity/brightness is observed in EUV at the predicted location. We also investigated the success of GONG and HMI at predicting large active regions before they appear at the east limb as viewed from Earth. Of the 27 identified large east-limb active regions in the nine months of data analyzed, GONG predicted 15 (55 %) at least once within the week prior to Earth-side appearance and HMI predicted 13 (48 %). Based on the STEREO far-side EUV observations, we suggest that 9 of the 27 active regions were probably too weak to be predicted while on the far side. Overall, we conclude that HMI and GONG have similar reliability using the current data-processing procedures.