Socio-economic Projects Research Articles

The fire weather in Europe: large-scale trends towards higher danger

Abstract The climate over Europe has been recorded to be hotter, drier, and more fire-prone over the last decade than ever before, leading to concerns about how climate change will alter fire weather in the future. A typical measure to estimate fire weather severity based on climate is the Canadian fire weather index (FWI). In this study, we used high-resolution, bias-corrected climate model output (∼9 km) from six CMIP6 climate models and four shared socio-economic pathway projections (SSPs) to calculate consistent and comparable daily FWI datasets for Europe from 1950 to 2080. Our study aims to identify regional and large-scale shifts in fire weather severity and its predictability over time to support adaptive planning. We show that irrespective of the future SSP, fire weather will become more severe, but the increase is much stronger under high greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to new areas being exposed to severe fire weather, such as central Europe and rapidly warming mountainous areas. Already fire-prone regions in southern Europe will experience more extreme conditions. We conclude that only the low-emission SSP1-2.6 pathway can prevent strong increases in fire weather beyond the 2050s. Fire surveillance and management will become more important, even in areas and in seasons where they have not been in the focus so far.

Precarious privileges: glimpses into the post-Ottoman transition through the papers of a Salonican family

ABSTRACT As cousins, we discovered a treasure trove of family papers, revealing the intricate relationship between precarity and privilege of our family from Salonica navigating the post-Ottoman transition. Recognising the potential of family history to provide a more intimate and complex historiography, this article offers our initial study of these family papers. By highlighting the challenges posed by the scarcity of such documents in Middle Eastern studies, emphasising women’s roles in preserving family memory and focussing on the interplay between personal and political domains, we identify the preparation of a family tree as a gendered and socioeconomic project of preserving the past and shaping the present. By tracing our family's origins, including unsettling discoveries, we address matters of identity and memory before embarking on our analysis. By reconstructing the biographies of two generations, we characterise the family’s socioeconomic struggle to sustain their precarious privilege amid shifting frontiers and along their journey from Ottoman Salonica to Kemalist Turkey. Ultimately, this article underscores the significance of family history as a transnational, intergenerational, intersectional and social history that enriches our understanding of the post-Ottoman transition through the lives of ordinary (and some extraordinary) Ottomans.

Environmental satisfaction of resettlement households after land acquisition in vietnam: a case study in Hai Phong city

Land acquisition and resetlement are sensitive issues because of its large impacts on the life of local people and communities, especially in developing nations. In Vietnam, recently, land acquisition is increasingly popular to serve infrastructure development and socio-economic projects. This study aims to identify factors affecting household environmental satisfaction after land acquisition and resetlement in Hai Phong city. The empirical study model is proposed based on theoretical model by Shin (2016) and empirical studies on environmental satisfaction. We conducted 2 focus group discussions with stakeholders and a survey sample of 585 households in 03 resetlement areas to collect data. Cronbach’ Alpha test, exploratory factor analysis, and multiple regressions were used for data analysis. Results showed 6 main factors affecting the extent of respondents’ environmental satisfaction after land acquisition, including employment and income, local government, public services and facilities, social networks, environment and health and education. Among them, employment and income is strongest impact factor. From the results, some solutions were proposed to increase satifactions and stabilize livelihoods for people after land acquisition in Hai Phong and Vietnam.

Advancing SSP-aligned scenarios of shipping toward 2050

Developing comprehensive scenarios for the shipping sector has been a challenge for the Integrated Assessment Model (IAMs) community, influencing how attainable decarbonization is in the sector, and for Earth System Models (ESMs), impacting the climate contribution of shipping emissions. Here we present an approach to develop spatially explicit energy demand projections for shipping in alignment with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework and IAMs projections of global fossil fuel demand. Our results show that shipping could require between 14 and 20 EJ by 2050, corresponding to a 3% and 44% increase from 2018 for the SSP1-1.9 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Furthermore, the energy projections we present in this publication can be combined with different fuel mixes to derive emission inventories for climate modeling and, thus, improve our understanding of the various challenges in mitigating emissions for shipping. Through that, we aim to present a framework to incorporate detailed spatial shipping inventories and increase transparency for the scientific community.

Integration of energy system and computable general equilibrium models: An approach complementing energy and economic representations for mitigation analysis

Energy system and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models play vital roles in climate change mitigation studies. These models have advantages and disadvantages, and attempts have been made to integrate them. This study aimed to describe the method for integrating energy system and CGE models and demonstrate the new model that captures the strengths of both models. The method developed in this study ensured the detailed convergence of the energy system by exchanging the results iteratively. We demonstrated the model integration by adopting the method to MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and AIM/Hub and estimating a mitigation scenario that limits the temperature rise to below 2 °C under the middle-of-the-road socioeconomic projection in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. As a result of the integration, the index showing the difference between the two models proposed in this study decreased from 1.0 to 0.066. Therefore, we confirmed that these models estimated consistent scenarios. The diagnostic indicators showed that compared to its counterpart CGE model, the newly-developed model was characterized by a higher contribution of demand-side reductions, a lesser alteration in the primary energy supply composition, and lower abatement costs. Given the convergence and advantages of the integrated framework, the proposed method is useful for further application to mitigation studies.

Understanding Fertigation Adoption: An Investigation into the Theory of Planned Behaviour among Indigenous Communities in Perak, Malaysia

The Orang Asli Resettlement Programme (RPS) aimed to uplift the indigenous community, particularly in the Titiwang Range area of Perak. Despite socio-economic development projects under the RPS, poverty persists among the indigenous people, and conventional farming practices persist. They also refuse to implement fertigation technology due to negative perceptions of fertigation technology. This study aims to determine the relationship between attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behaviour control towards fertigation technology among indigenous people in Perak. This study adopted a quantitative survey design conducted in Perak, Malaysia. A sample size of 150 indigenous people in Perak was selected as the respondents through purposive sampling. The collected data was subjected to descriptive and correlation analysis using Statistical Package for the Social Science (SPSS) version 26. The findings showed that there is a significant relationship between attitude (r=0.776, p=0.000), subjective norm (r=0.591, p=0.000) and perceived behavioural control (r=0.726, p=0.000) with the perception of indigenous people towards fertigation systems. The study recommended increasing agriculture-related programmes, particularly training initiatives, by organisations such as MUHAMMAD KAMALHAMDI BIN NAZAN (IMS ADA, EXCEL XDOP) JAKOA, DOA and non-profit organisations to improve indigenous technical training.

Refugees, Labour and Sectarianism in Syria under the French mandate (1921-1950)

This article analyses the Syrianization of post–World War One refugees in Syria under the French mandate (1921–1946) through their involvement in two interrelated fields: the labour they spent in the opening up of the Jazira to agriculture, and their engagement in the highly contested politics of the mid-1930s. The scholarly literature on refugees in the Middle East usually operates within the fields of refugee, minority, and empire studies. This article aims to go beyond these fields by analysing the political and economic experiences of Christian and Kurdish refugees in French Syria. It demonstrates how which the French socio-economic project of making the Jazira was appropriated by local residents through labour and politics. It demonstrates how these refugee groups, with diverse histories of past violence and present dispositions, participated in pro-French colonial order and negotiated their terms of belonging to French-Syria in different ways in the decade following their arrival. It explores the centrality of the refugee question in the making of Syriannness both for the locals and the newcomers. Furthermore, the article investigates how ethnicity, religion and labour as the markers of Syrianness were negotiated through both the refugee issue and the involvement of former refugees in national politics.

State of the art: “social and solidarity economy as a driver of sustainability

The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the current state of convergence between Social and Solidarity Economy (SSE) and sustainability, covering the period from 2009 to 2023. SSE, with its principles of cooperation, equity, and citizen participation, is considered a key tool for addressing inequality and promoting decent employment, while sustainability focuses on improving living conditions without compromising the future. The article argues that SSE promotes sustainable economic practices aligned with the 2030 Agenda. The proposed methodology combines heuristic and hermeneutic approaches, allowing for a thorough and up-to-date review of the literature on SSE and sustainability. The application of SSE in various regions is illustrated through case studies that encompass areas such as urban agriculture, circular economy, recycling cooperatives, and socioeconomic development projects. Overall, it is emphasized that the combination of SSE and sustainability offers a promising approach to addressing socio-environmental challenges, highlighting cooperation, inclusion, and the pursuit of a sustainable and equitable future.

СУЧАСНІ ФОРМИ СПІВПРАЦІ УКРАЇНИ З МІЖНАРОДНИМИ ФІНАНСОВИМИ ІНСТИТУТАМИ

In this article, the importance of modern forms of Ukraine’s cooperation with international financial institutions (IFSs) is discussed. The author systematised IFIs by classification criteria and looked into the main forms of financial cooperation between the government of Ukraine and IFIs. The analysis indicates that in today’s global economic system, the most common form of cooperation between governments and IFIs lies in lending. The structural and dynamic analysis of the forms of financial assistance from IFIs to Ukraine also confirmed this. The analysis of the cooperation between the Ukrainian government and IFIs also confirmed that loans from IFIs are the main source of long-term financing for socio-economic development projects in Ukraine’s priority sectors. Additionally, the author analyses the aspects of Ukraine’s cooperation with the IMF, the World Bank Group, and the IBRD, and identifies the areas of use of credit and investment resources in 2020-2023. Hence, the borrowed credit resources received by Ukraine from the IMF are used to service external debt, finance the budget deficit and deficits in the balance of payments and trade. In times of crisis for Ukraine’s economy, the IMF’s loans help replenish the NBU’s foreign exchange reserves, maintain the stability of the national currency, and optimize the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine which stimulates lending to the real economy. Ukraine used the loan resources from the IFIs of the World Bank Group to cover the budget deficit, to implement institutional and structural reforms as well as long-term investment projects. The author also defines the importance and role of international technical assistance in the framework of Ukraine’s cooperation with IFIs, proving that international technical assistance is provided to Ukraine on a free and non-refundable basis by donor countries and international institutions. In conclusion, the author underlines the expected risks and necessity of this cooperation.

Developing Socioeconomic Projects that Inspire Values – Case of Poultry Farm in Nyaruguru District (Rwanda)

Developing Socioeconomic Projects that Inspire Values – Case of Poultry Farm in Nyaruguru District (Rwanda)

Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets

The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of CO2 humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5 °C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative adjustments. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and present more recent data, calculation refinements and robustness checks that increase confidence in them. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5 °C is around 250 GtCO2 as of January 2023, equal to around six years of current CO2 emissions. For a 50% chance of 2 °C the RCB is around 1,200 GtCO2. Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and potential warming after net zero CO2.

Projected Change in the Burden of Excess Cardiovascular Deaths Associated With Extreme Heat by Midcentury (2036-2065) in the Contiguous United States.

Climate change is causing an increase in extreme heat. Individuals with cardiovascular disease are at high risk of heat-related adverse health effects. How the burden of extreme heat-associated cardiovascular deaths in the United States will change with the projected rise in extreme heat is unknown. We obtained data on cardiovascular deaths among adults and the number of extreme heat days (maximum heat index ≥90 °F [32.2 °C]) in each county in the contiguous United States from 2008 to 2019. Based on representative concentration pathway trajectories that model greenhouse gas emissions and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) that model future socioeconomic scenarios and demographic projections, we obtained county-level projected numbers of extreme heat days and populations under 2 scenarios for the midcentury period 2036 to 2065: SSP2-4.5 (representing demographic projections from a "middle-of-the-road" socioeconomic scenario and an intermediate increase in emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (demographic projections in an economy based on "fossil-fueled development" and a large increase in emissions). The association of cardiovascular mortality with extreme heat was estimated with a Poisson fixed-effects model. Using estimates from this model, the projected number of excess cardiovascular deaths associated with extreme heat was calculated. Extreme heat was associated with 1651 (95% CI, 921-2381) excess cardiovascular deaths per year from 2008 to 2019. By midcentury, extreme heat is projected to be associated with 4320 (95% CI, 2369-6272) excess deaths annually, which is an increase of 162% (95% CI, 142-182) under SSP2-4.5, and 5491 (95% CI, 3011-7972) annual excess deaths, which is an increase of 233% (95% CI, 206-259) under SSP5-8.5. Elderly adults are projected to have a 3.5 (95% CI, 3.2-3.8) times greater increase in deaths in the SSP2-4.5 scenario compared with nonelderly adults. Non-Hispanic Black adults are projected to have a 4.6 (95% CI, 2.8-6.4) times greater increase compared with non-Hispanic White adults. The projected change in deaths was not statistically significantly different for other race and ethnicity groups or between men and women. By midcentury, extreme heat is projected to be associated with a significantly greater burden of excess cardiovascular deaths in the contiguous United States.

Impact of transient shocks to productivity on long-term social discounting

The cost-benefit analysis of long-run climate mitigation projects and valuations of a social cost of carbon critically depend on the long-term social discount factor. Here, we consider the problem of the socially optimal risk-adjusted ‘Gamma discounting’ in the presence of strong exogeneous shocks to productivity of capital. We establish that the declining schedule of the long-term forward discount rates over time is very sensitive to the average frequency of shocks, λ, and the difference between the key model parameters: the intergenerational inequality aversion of a social planner η and the shape parameter a of the assumed Gamma distribution of productivity rates. We establish that for a relatively small intergenerational inequality aversion, η≤a−1, the lowest possible forward discount rate is equal to λ. Qualitatively, this important conclusion can be explained by a higher sensitivity of the discount factor to technological breakthroughs bringing back high productivity rates (positive shocks) than to disasters (negative shocks). However, if η>a−1>0, the socially optimal forward discount rate can decline further down, towards zero, with a growth of the time horizon. Thus, socioeconomic projections of long-term discount rates require account of potential advances in technology.

PECULIARITIES OF FINANCIAL AND BUDGETARY CONTROL IN MODERN REALITIES

The article discusses the main features and problems of implementing financial and budgetary control at the current stage of development. The basis for the study of key features was the control activities of the Office of the Federal Treasury in the Udmurt Republic. The main points that the Federal Treasury focuses on when exercising the functions of financial and budgetary control are highlighted. The importance of monitoring the need to use digital technologies, expanding the role of monitoring the efficiency of the use of budgetary funds, the transparency of budgetary processes, and the use of budgetary funds for socio-economic programs and projects is growing. Responsibility for committed budget violations has been strengthened.The volume of funds allocated to the Udmurt Republic, the volume of concluded contracts (contracts), the volume of funds checked by the Federal Treasury Department for the Udmurt Republic, the structure of detected violations, especially violations of the legislation on the contract system, were analyzed. It was determined that in order to ensure a higher level of efficiency of financial and budgetary control, it is necessary to improve the existing system of financial and budgetary control, work to improve the system of public finance management, continue to digitalize financial and budgetary control, in connection with which high hopes are pinned on the implementation of the project of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation “Electronic SMART control (controlling) and accounting of public finances for management decisions”.

Еволюція ролі державних банків у економіці

The aggravation of global challenges of economic instability, climate change and local physical destruction of infrastructure as a result of war and man-made disasters leads to a review of assessments regarding the expediency of the existence of banks with state participation. The successful experience of using them to solve large socio-economic projects in a number of countries encourages this. Based on a theoretical generalization of the methodological recommendations of scientists and specialists of international institutions and a comparative analysis of current foreign experience, the article presents a scientific rationale for the feasibility of preserving the state share in the capital of leading banking institutions in Ukraine to ensure the stability of the economy during the war and post-war recovery. It was determined that the key directions of solving these tasks with the participation of state banks should be the preservation of the financial market stability, the support of solvent demand and the solvency of small enterprises, and the implementation of large infrastructure projects. At the same time, it was noted that a significant risk of an excessive share of the state in the banking market is the restriction of competition and the deterioration of the quality of services. Due to existing preferences, state banks are prone to violating the laws of market competition. At the same time, acting not according to the laws of the market, but in line with the government’s socially oriented policy, state banks limit the self-regulatory function of the market, which determines their transitional status. The general conclusion states that at certain stages of economic cycles, banks with state participation are a necessary tool that ensures the achievement of macroeconomic goals, infrastructure reconstruction, financing of priority sectors of the economy and, thereby, increasing the country’s competitiveness on the international market. In the presence of such tasks, banks with state participation take on the role of temporarily leading institutions of the development of the transitional stage.

The Social Cost of Ozone-Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions.

Atmospheric methane directly affects surface temperatures and indirectly affects ozone, impacting human welfare, the economy, and environment. The social cost of methane (SC-CH4) metric estimates the costs associated with an additional marginal metric ton of emissions. Current SC-CH4 estimates do not consider the indirect impacts associated with ozone production from changes in methane. We use global model simulations and a new BenMAP webtool to estimate respiratory-related deaths associated with increases in ozone from a pulse of methane emissions in 2020. By using an approach consistent with the current SC-CH4 framework, we monetize and discount annual damages back to present day values. We estimate that the methane-ozone mechanism is attributable to 760 (95% CI: 330-1200) respiratory-related deaths per million metric tons of methane globally, for a global net present damage of $1800/mT (95% CI: $760-$2800/Mt CH4; 2% Ramsey discount rate); this would double the current SC-CH4 if included. These physical impacts are consistent with recent studies, but comparing direct costs is challenging. Economic damages are sensitive to uncertainties in the exposure and health risks associated with tropospheric ozone, assumptions about future projections of NOx emissions, socioeconomic conditions, and mortality rates, monetization parameters, and other factors. Our estimates are highly sensitive to uncertainties in ozone health risks. We also develop a reduced form model to test sensitivities to other parameters. The reduced form tool runs with a user-supplied emissions pulse, as well as socioeconomic and precursor projections, enabling future integration of the methane-ozone mechanism into the SC-CH4 modeling framework.

Early adopters of residential solar PV distributed generation: Evidence from Brazil, Chile and Mexico

Substantial adoption of solar rooftop systems in the residential sector resulting from the implementation of net metering policies can lead to worsening socioeconomic inequalities. This is because of the lack of information on the socioeconomic profiles of distributed solar generators. To fill this information gap and shed light on the determinants of solar photovoltaic distributed generation uptake, this paper aims to identify the profile of the first adopters of solar PV distributed generation by merging different databases. Using multilevel regression analysis, this study investigates how socioeconomic factors, project viability, and neighborhood variables, matter for adopting solar PV distributed generation in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. Results differ across countries, as institutional frameworks matter. In Brazil, adopters live in urban areas and are highly responsive to solar energy potential. In Chile, the size of the project matters. Finally, in Mexico, results show that demonstration effects play a crucial role in adoption. Income as a determining factor is inconclusive. Average spending on electricity matters in all countries. This study highlights the existence of heterogeneity in the distribution of solar distributed generators. To mitigate these distortions, this work suggests some recommendations to improve solar distribution net metering policies in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico.

Socioeconomic exposure to drought under climate warming and globalization: The importance of vegetation‐CO2 feedback

AbstractClimate change has intensified drought severity, duration, frequency, and the spatial extent, promoting considerable concern about the socioeconomic exposure to drought. Some previous studies have suggested the overestimation of drought indices and more drying due to neglecting the impact of vegetation response to CO2. Using models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and the socioeconomic projections, we quantified the impact of vegetation‐CO2 feedback on extreme drought frequency and the corresponding exposure of population and GDP under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios. Results show that extreme drought frequency will increase significantly, affecting over 70% of global land by the 2050s. Along with rapid growth of socioeconomic factors, population and GDP exposure will increase by 26.90%–36.12% and 2.51–2.95 folds in the 2030s and 67.78%–78.72% and 3.41–5.94 folds in the 2050s. Underdeveloped countries are projected to face the most significant challenges, with substantial increases in population and GDP exposure to extreme drought. By incorporating the impact of vegetation‐CO2 feedback, we address biases of around 2% in extreme drought frequency, particularly in arid and semi‐arid regions, showing underestimations of more drying across around half of global land in the baseline period and the 2030s. The biases, however, shift to be overestimations globally in the 2050s. As a result, early underestimations of extreme drought frequency will lead to significant underestimations in exposed population and GDP by 5.25% and 6.07% in the baseline period, as well as in the 2030s. In contrast, later overestimations will lead to overestimations of exposed population by 3.16%–8.54% and exposed GDP by 2.82%–6.65% in the 2050s. This study provides a more accurate estimation of socioeconomic exposure to extreme drought and highlights the potential risks associated with global warming.

Ten questions concerning prospective LCA for decision support for the built environment

It is essential to provide quantitative decision support when pursuing environmental impact mitigation efforts, particularly when considering resource and energy-demanding sectors such as the built environment. Life cycle assessment (LCA) provides widely recognized quantitative decision support regarding environmental performance. However, for long-lived products such as buildings, the usefulness of conventional LCA is limited as it relies on databases that only give a current or past representation of industrial processes. The emerging field of prospective LCA (pLCA) allows us to evaluate the results at a future point in time based on technological and socio-economic projections. This article builds on a systematic literature screening, ongoing discussions in the pLCA academic community, and hands-on experimentation with available software. The goal of the study is to 1) understand implications of how pLCA is conducted, and how it relates to the built environment; 2) Improve the documentation and credibility of pLCA and applied scenarios; And 3) identify practical tools and workflows that can make pLCA more accessible to practitioners. The study raises ten relevant questions when considering how to use pLCA for decision support in the built environment. This list of questions is not exhaustive nor definite, and recommendations are possible answers suggested by the authors. Using scenario narratives from energy and Integrated Assessment Models allows for systematic and consistent transformation of LCA databases to represent possible futures. However, there is a need for pLCA practitioners to improve documentation to ensure that the goal and scope of the LCA are compatible with the chosen future scenario. In the case of built environment, it is relevant to consider different projection years when modeling construction, operation, renovation, and demolition phases, respectively, as they span several decades. Not doing so can misestimate the effects changing socio-economic and technological contexts have on the life-cycle impact of buildings.

Project Risk Management Strategies and Performance of Socio-Economic Projects in Rwanda: A Case of Urban Economic Development Initiative Project

The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of Project risk Management Strategies on the Performance of the Urban Economic Development Initiative Project. The study was guided by the following specific objectives: To assess the effect of project risk planning strategy on the performance of the Urban Economic Development Initiative Project, to evaluate the effect of risk assessment strategy on the performance of the Urban Economic Development Initiative Project, to assess the effect of risk responses on the performance of the Urban Economic Development Initiative Project. A descriptive design was used for this research project. The study’s target population was equal to sample size of 45 due to population less than 100. Both primary and secondary research approaches were utilized in order to compile the data. For the primary data collection, the researcher adopted questionnaires, and for the secondary data collection, the researcher applied a documentary review. The gathered data was evaluated using both descriptive statistics, such as the use of frequency and percentage as well as the mean and standard deviation, and inferential statistics, such as the use of multiple linear regression analysis. Tables were employed to exhibit the results of the investigation, and a pilot study was carried out to evaluate the validity and reliability of the instrument that was utilized in the data collection process. The results showed that Pearson Coefficient Correlation indicated that .694 relationship between project risk assessment strategy on the performance of Urban Economic Development Initiative Project. The third specific objective revealed the effect of project risk responses on the performance of the Urban Economic Development Initiative Project, the results showed that 8.9% strongly agreed and 88.9% agreed that reducing project risks contributes to the performance of the Urban Economic Development Initiative Project. In addition, project risk response improves the performance of the Urban Economic Development Initiative Project at r=.861 which is a strong positive correlation. The study concluded that risk planning, risk assessment, and risk response contribute highly to the performance of the project. In recommendation, project key stakeholders should apply risk avoidance strategy to improve the performance of socioeconomic project Keywords: Project Risk Management, Performance Measurement, Socio-Economic Projects, Urban Economic Development, Risk Management Strategies, Rwanda's Development Initiatives