Socio-economic Development Pathways Research Articles

A double-edged sword into a plowshare: Analyzing geopolitical implications of alternative socioeconomic development pathways

A double-edged sword into a plowshare: Analyzing geopolitical implications of alternative socioeconomic development pathways

Assessing ambitious nature conservation strategies in a below 2-degree and food-secure world

Global biodiversity is projected to further decline under a wide range of future socio-economic development pathways, even in sustainability-oriented scenarios. This raises the question how biodiversity can be put on a path to recovery, the core challenge for the implementation of the CBD Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We designed two ambitious global conservation strategies, ‘Half Earth’ (HE) and ‘Sharing the Planet’ (SP), and evaluated their ability to restore terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and to provide nature's contributions to people (NCP), while also limiting global warming below 2 degrees and ensuring food security. We applied the integrated assessment framework IMAGE with the GLOBIO biodiversity model, using the ‘Middle of the Road’ Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) with its projected human population growth as baseline. We found that the HE strategy performs generally better for terrestrial biodiversity (biodiversity intactness (MSA), Area of Habitat, Living Planet Index, Red List Index) in currently still natural regions. The SP strategy yields more improvements for biodiversity in human-used areas, for freshwater biodiversity and for regulating NCP (pest control, pollination, erosion control, water quality). However, both strategies were insufficient to restore biodiversity and corresponded with considerable increases in food security risks and global temperature. Only when we combined the conservation strategies with a portfolio of ‘integrated sustainability measures’, including climate change mitigation and reductions of food waste and animal product consumption, our scenarios resulted in a restoration of biodiversity and NCP while keeping global warming below two degrees and food security risks below the baseline projection.

A deep learning architecture for energy service demand estimation in transport sector for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Meeting current global passenger and freight transport energy service demands accounts for 20% of annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and mitigating these emissions remains a considerable challenge for climate policy. Pursuant to this, energy service demands play a critical role in the energy systems and integrated assessment models but fail to get the attention they warrant. This study introduces a novel custom deep learning neural network architecture (called TrebuNet) that mimics the physical process of firing a trebuchet to model the nuanced dynamics inherent in energy service demand estimation. Here we show, how TrebuNet is designed, trained, and used to estimate transport energy service demand. We find that the TrebuNet architecture shows superior performance compared with traditional multivariate linear regression and state of the art methods like densely connected neural network, Recurrent Neural Network, and Gradient Boosted machine learning algorithms when evaluated for regional demand projection for all modes of transport demands at short, decadal, and medium-term time horizons. Finally, TrebuNet introduces a framework to project energy service demand for regions having multiple countries spanning different socio-economic development pathways which can be replicated for wider regression-based task for timeseries having non-uniform variance.

Implications of changes in climate and human development on 21st-century global drought risk.

Climate change is expected to exacerbate drought conditions over many global regions. However, the future risk posed by droughts depends not only on the climate-induced changes but also on the changes in societal exposure and vulnerability to droughts. Here we illustrate how the consideration of human vulnerability alters global drought risk associated with runoff (hydrological) and soil moisture (agriculture) droughts during the 21st-century. We combine the changes in drought frequency, population growth, and human development as a proxy of vulnerability to project global drought risk under plausible climate and socioeconomic development pathways. Results indicate that the shift toward a pathway of high greenhouse gas emissions and socioeconomic inequality leads to i) increased population exposure to runoff and soil moisture droughts by 81% and seven folds, respectively, and ii) a stagnation of human development. These consequences are more pronounced for populations living in low than in very high human development countries. In particular, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where the majority of the world's less developed countries are located, fare the worst in terms of future drought risk. The disparity in risk between low and very high human development countries can be substantially reduced in the presence of a shift toward a world of rapid and sustainable development that actively reduces social inequality and emissions. Our results underscore the importance of rapid human development in hotspots of drought risk where effective adaptation is most needed to reduce future drought impacts.

Unraveling the environmental impact of current and future food waste and its management in Chinese provinces

Major environmental and climate changes are driven by changes in socioeconomic development. The problem of food waste, its unsustainable management, and associated environmental consequences are becoming great concerns due to the rapid socioeconomic development in many Chinese provinces. This study assessed the current and future status of food waste and its management, and the associated environmental impact in all Chinese provinces from life cycle perspective. Based on result, food waste in China was estimated as 61.37 Mt in 2020 and could be as high as 100.95–139.82 Mt by 2040, under various socioeconomic pathways. Average per capita food waste has increased by 29.67% from 2016 and Tianjin was found to have the highest per capita food waste. Correspondingly, GHG emission of food waste in China was estimated as 149.25 Mt CO 2 eq in 2020, and is largely influence by the varieties of food wasted in each province. The environmental burden of food waste is projected to increase by 70%–148% under different socioeconomic development pathways. Anaerobic digestion demands freshwater and may pose challenges for Chinese provinces facing water scarcity. Diverting food waste to anaerobic digestion can reduce GHG emissions of food waste by ∼ 74% by 2040. China’s transition to sustainable waste management may be impeded and unsustainable economic-wise if many Chinese provinces continue to build on their current food waste management trend. These findings could be pivotal in setting food waste reduction goals at provincial level and devising strategies to ensure active involvement of community in food waste reduction programs. • Food waste in Chinese provinces is estimated to be 61.37 Mt in 2020. • Food waste will keep increasing in China and could reach 100–139.82 Mt by 2040. • Distinctive consumption pattern of a province affects FW and its environmental burden. • Reducing food waste is more economical and environmentally friendly than treatment. • Food rescue programs could lessen the environmental impact of FW and its treatment.

Optimizing renewable-based energy supply options for power generation in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia unveiled homegrown economic reform agenda aimed to achieve a lower-middle status by 2030 and sustain its economic growth to achieve medium-middle and higher-middle status by 2040 and 2050 respectively. In this study, we evaluated the optimal renewable energy mix for power generation and associated investment costs for the country to progressively achieve upper-middle-income countries by 2050. Two economic scenarios: business as usual and Ethiopia’s homegrown reform agenda scenario were considered. The study used an Open Source energy Modeling System. The model results suggest: if projected power demand increases as anticipated in the homegrown reform agenda scenario, Ethiopia requires to expand the installed power capacity to 31.22GW, 112.45GW and 334.27GW to cover the current unmet and achieve lower, medium and higher middle-income status by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. The Ethiopian energy mix continues to be dominated by hydropower and starts gradually shifting to solar and wind energy development towards 2050 as a least-cost energy supply option. The results also indicate Ethiopia needs to invest about 70 billion US$ on power plant investments for the period 2021–2030 to achieve the lower-middle-income electricity per capita consumption target by 2030 and staggering cumulative investment in the order of 750 billion US$ from 2031 to 2050 inclusive to achieve upper-middle-income electricity consumption rates by 2050. Ethiopia has enough renewable energy potential to achieve its economic target. Investment and financial sourcing remain a priority challenge. The findings could be useful in supporting decision-making concerning socio-economic development and investment pathways in the country.

Global projections of future wilderness decline under multiple IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

Globally, wilderness areas are being lost at a rate that outpaces their protection, which has adverse effects on the global environment. Rapid action is needed to understand the trends and consequences of global wilderness change. We present projections of global wilderness decline in 2100 under the influence of land-use change within the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES). The projections revealed that the decline of wilderness was deeply affected by different global socioeconomic development pathways. The total wilderness loss (4.74%) in scenario A2 (with slow technological innovation and traditional demand for biofuels) was much higher than in the other scenarios. Around 76.51% of the loss of global wilderness globally occurs occurred in South America, which will occur in Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forests. The smallest loss (0.08%) occurred in scenario B1 (with a high level of environmental consciousness). We found that wilderness losses in 2100 will be concentrated in some important biomes, which have relatively high-density carbon storage. These findings stress the importance of targeted wilderness protection to ensure the long-term integrity of ecosystems and the balance of the carbon cycle.

Increasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China.

BackgroundIn recent years, frequent outbreaks of dengue fever (DF) have become an increasingly serious public health issue in China, especially in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) with fast socioeconomic developments. Previous studies mainly focused on the historic DF epidemics, their influencing factors, and the prediction of DF risks. However, the future risks of this disease under both different socioeconomic development and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios remain little understood.Methodology and principal findingsIn this study, a spatial dataset of gross domestic product (GDP), population density, and land use and land coverage (LULC) in 2050 and 2070 was obtained by simulation based on the different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), and the future climatic data derived from the RCP scenarios were integrated into the Maxent models for predicting the future DF risk in the PRD region. Among all the variables included in this study, socioeconomics factors made the dominant contribution (83% or so) during simulating the current spatial distribution of the DF epidemics in the PRD region. Moreover, the spatial distribution of future DF risk identified by the climatic and socioeconomic (C&S) variables models was more detailed than that of the climatic variables models. Along with global warming and socioeconomic development, the zones with DF high and moderate risk will continue to increase, and the population at high and moderate risk will reach a maximum of 48.47 million (i.e., 63.78% of the whole PRD) under the RCP 4.5/SSP2 in 2070.ConclusionsThe increasing DF risk may be an inevitable public health threat in the PRD region with rapid socioeconomic developments and global warming in the future. Our results suggest that curbs in emissions and more sustainable socioeconomic growth targets offer hope for limiting the future impact of dengue, and effective prevention and control need to continue to be strengthened at the junction of Guangzhou-Foshan, north-central Zhongshan city, and central-western Dongguan city. Our study provides useful clues for relevant hygienic authorities making targeted adapting strategies for this disease.

Water Scenarios Modelling for Renewable Energy Development in Southern Morocco

Water and energy are two pivotal areas for future sustainable development, with complex linkages existing between the two sectors. These linkages require special attention in the context of the energy transition. Against this background, this paper analyses the role of water availability in the development of solar thermal and photovoltaic power plants for the case of the Draa Valley in southern Morocco. Located in a semi-arid to arid mountainous area, the Drâa Valley faces high water stress - a situation expected to worsen due to climate change. At the same time, the region has one of the greatest potentials for solar energy in the world. To examine whether limited water availability could accelerate or delay the implementation of solar thermal and photovoltaic power plants, this paper compares regional water availability and demand in the Draa Valley for different scenarios, paying particular attention to potential socio-economic development pathways. The Water Evaluation and Planning System software is applied to allocate the water resources in the study region. The water supply is modelled under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario, while the water demand for the Drâa Valley is modelled for a combination of three socio-economic and two energy scenarios. The climate scenario describes a significant decrease in water availability by 2050, while the socio-economic and energy scenarios show an increase in water demand. The results demonstrate that during a sequence of dry years the reservoirs water availability is reduced and shortages in water supply can result in high levels of unmet demand. If this situation occurs, oasis farming, water for drinking and energy production could compete directly with each other for water resources. The energy scenarios indicate that the use of dry cooling technologies in concentrated solar power and photovoltaic hybrid systems could be one option for reducing competition for the scarce water resources in the region. However, given that energy generation accounts for only a small share of the regional water demand, the results also suggest that socio-economic demand reduction, especially in the agricultural sector, for example by reducing the cultivated area, will most likely become necessary.

Implications to the electricity system of Paraguay of different demand scenarios and export prices to Brazil

Paraguay's power system is based entirely on hydropower. It serves as the largest net electricity exporter in Latin America. Nonetheless, the country´s electricity consumption per capita is one of the lowest in the world and the transmission and distribution network has one of the highest losses in Latin America. This paper presents an electricity expansion investment outlook (2018–2040) for Paraguay using OSeMOSYS, analyzing three electricity demand scenarios under different electricity export prices to Brazil. The study identifies the least-cost power generation mix, future investments and the financial requirements to meet the needs of different demand scenarios. We find that Paraguay will need to invest in hydropower plants, by mainly expanding the capacity of Yacyreta to cover its electricity needs and sustain national electricity exports levels. In the High demand scenario, where the electricity demand could approximately double by 2040, the country's overall electricity exports decrease by 50% compared to the Reference scenario. Based on the different scenarios examined, the government spends approximately 18.3–31.2 billion USD on power plant investments for the period 2018–2040 to cover future electricity demand. The findings could be useful in supporting decision-making concerning socio-economic development pathways in the country.

Restoring farmlands for food and nature

Changes in the intensity and extent of farmland have a profound impact on life on Earth. Although nature-rich farmlands have conservation value, their promotion competes with the protection and restoration of natural habitat. Restoring the productive capacity of existing farmland can help maximize opportunities for the restoration of both nature-rich farmlands and natural habitat.

Climate Change Policy Implications of Sustainable Development Pathways in Korea at Sub-National Scale

Climate action is goal 13 of UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Future impacts of climate change depend on climatic changes, the level of climate change policy, both mitigation and adaptation, and socio-economic status and development pathways. To investigate the climate change policy impact of socio-economic development pathways, we develop three pathways. Climate change affects socio-economic development in many ways. We interpret global storylines into South Korean contexts: Shared Socio-economic Pathway 1 (SSP1), SSP2, and SSP3 for population, economy, and land use. SSP elements and proxies were identified and elaborated through stakeholder participatory workshops, demand survey on potential users, past trends, and recent national projections of major proxies. Twenty-nine proxies were quantified using sector-specific models and downscaled where possible. Socio-economic and climate scenarios matrixes enable one to quantify the contribution of climate, population, economic development, and land-use change in future climate change impacts. Economic damage between climate scenarios is different in SSPs, and it highlights that SSPs are one of the key components for future climate change impacts. Achieving SDGs generates additional incentives for local and national governments as it can reduce mitigation and adaptation policy burden.

An inverted U-shaped curve relating farmland vulnerability to biological disasters: Implications for sustainable intensification in China

Sustainable farmland intensification is necessary in order to harmonize relationships between food security, socioeconomic development, and ecological civilization. However, the degradation of farmland sustainability because of biological disasters represents a major challenge if we are to achieve this intensification. Our understanding of farmland vulnerability to biological disasters (FVBD) remains relatively rudimentary and subjective, limiting its effectiveness as a tool for farmland sustainability analysis. Limited research has also been carried out on FVBD changes taking into account human decisions on farmland use. The aim of this study is to achieve a novel understanding of FVBD change and its implications for sustainable intensification using evidence from Chinese farmland use. A theoretical framework based on an inverted U-shaped curve that depicts FVBD as well as an assessment framework for FVBD were established using induced substitution of agricultural production. Across China and considering 15 provincial districts with scarce farmland, the relationship between FVBD and socio-economic development was identified as consistent with an inverted U-shaped curve at both national and provincial levels. FVBD values in 2016 across Southern China, on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, and on the middle-lower Yangtze Plain were 45.44, 40.58, and 37.22, respectively. These values also decreased in provinces on the middle-lower Yangtze Plain between 1995 and 2016, but increased markedly across provinces in Southern China and on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Contributions to FVBD changes during stages of growth and decline were also analyzed between 1995 and 2016. An inverted U-shaped curve was effective in investigating the responses of farmland sustainability to a range of alternative future socioeconomic development pathways. Thus, in the Chinese settings, a typical country with scarce farmland, policies on FVBD control are essential if we are to promote sustainable farmland intensification. The findings of this work are important and present us with a new way to understand FVBD from a human perspective.

Projecting China's future water footprint under the shared socio-economic pathways

Increasing water scarcity in China is further exacerbated by the rapid socio-economic development and uneven spatial distribution of water resources. Current studies on water footprint have mainly focused on historical accounting and trend analysis at the provincial scale. However, a comprehensive exploration of future water footprint would be vital to a better understanding of future water shortage challenges, and more importantly, would allow the mitigation of water scarcity and inequal water distribution. In this paper, we present an approach to project the future water footprint of China at a fine resolution (0.125 arc-degree) under the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenario framework, which described five future alternative socio-economic development pathways over the 21st century. We first simulated the future spatial patterns of built-up land using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model and derived the future population growth and urbanization rate from the population projection provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Then future water footprint was projected according a log-transformed linear regression calibrated with historical data during 2007–2012. We found that the total volume of China's water footprint will increase significantly in the future under the SSP1, SSP4 and SSP5 scenarios, reaching up to nearly 400 billion m3 in 2050, equivalent to almost 40% increase compared to that in 2010. The spatial patterns of future water footprint show dramatic increase (up to 100–130%) in the eastern provinces (Shandong, Henan, and Hebei), and slight decrease were found in the western provinces (Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Qinghai). In addition, the future water footprints were found to share very similar spatial patterns at local pixel scale among different SSP scenarios in three of the largest metropolitan areas of China (Beijing-Hebei-Tianjin, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta). These findings provide extensive knowledge of the future water footprint and suggest a more severe water scarcity in the future from a consumption-oriented perspective. More effective water management policies are urgently needed to mitigate future water resource scarcity and inequality.

Tracing the trade-offs at the energy-water-environment nexus in drought-prone urbanising regions

Strategies for managing water stress negotiate a complex series of trade-offs and opportunities. Game-changing opportunities for water stressed regions are emerging with new emissions reduction strategies and energy options. These have particular significance for socio-economic development pathways in the marginal drought-prone regions. In this paper, we explore the energy-water-environment nexus in watersheds undergoing acute water stress and energy transitions in the Arab region and the Horn of Africa. A review of published and ongoing scientific activity was used to elaborate four case studies and identify common trade-offs between objectives to reduce water stress, increase productivity and lower energy costs and emissions. The available scientific evidence base for assessment of these trade-offs was then compared via a discursive process amongst review team members. Collectively, the case studies present a state of the art in available geoscientific methods currently applied in the Arab region to quantify nexus trade-offs for decision-making concerning increasing groundwater use, water harvesting and wastewater reuse across the case studies. The review pursues the wider geographic relevance and scope of this emerging scientific agenda. It identifies global opportunities to boost and progressively enhance the geoscientific information bases for decision-making in the most water stressed regions, as well as direct comparisons with emerging discussion in the Horn of Africa region. Insights for sustainable development decision-makers are highlighted and further scope for the transfer of insights within and beyond the Arab region are discussed.

CCUS in China’s mitigation strategy: insights from integrated assessment modeling

China is the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter. China has committed to limit its greenhouse gas emissions. With its heavy reliance on domestic coal resources, China faces an enormous challenge of transitioning its economy to a low-carbon energy mix to achieve long-term climate and local air quality goals. Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is widely recognized as an important option for emissions mitigation. The near-term readiness and cost of CCUS technologies, the sectors and regions of CO2 capture, and the location and adequacy of CO2 storage sites all affect the application of CCUS in China’s low-carbon development. This study uses GCAM-China, a global integrated assessment model with details for 31 provinces in China, to examine the role of CCUS as part of China’s climate mitigation strategy over the period of its Nationally Determined Contributions as well as in the transition to deeper emissions reductions toward mid-century. The inclusion of new provincial CO2 storage cost curves gives a more detailed evaluation of where, in terms of geography and sector, and when CCUS deployment in China may take place. The results suggest that the scale of deployment varies depending on socioeconomic development pathways and the level of deployment of other low-carbon technologies. Across provinces and development pathways, early deployment of CCUS occurs within industrial and synthetic fuel production sectors, followed by increased deployment in the power sector by mid-century. Several provinces, such as Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, and Henan, emerge as particularly important in CCUS deployment, as a result of large CO2 point sources and storage availability. Results indicate that storage resource availability is unlikely to constrain CCUS deployment in most provinces through the end of the century.

Quantifying the impact of diet quality on hunger and undernutrition

Food and nutrition security has been a persistent major challenge to human societies and this challenge continues into the 21st century, especially taking into consideration the targets set by the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which call for eradicating hunger (goal 2), ending poverty (goal 1), sustainably managing and using natural resources and ecosystems (goal 15), and combating climate change (goal 13). The way food is consumed and produced affects the human well-being as well as the environment. Avoiding food losses and adopting a balanced healthy diet is also an important step towards sustainability. Promoting dietary standards and monitoring their adoption is a potentially important policy tool for mitigating environmental impacts of food production as well as monitoring food security and nutrition. There is relatively little research to measure nutritional adequacy of food intake according to dietary standards, and to explore the relationship with health outcomes. In this study we choose the well-established WHO global-level dietary recommendations as a reference to quantify nutritional adequacy by developing an energy and macronutrient intake index (ENI), and to assess its relation to indicators of hunger and undernutrition. We find strong negative association between nutritional adequacy of dietary intake and prevalence of undernutrition at national level, and we illustrate that ENI could be an effective tool to inform national food security strategies. Under different future socioeconomic development scenarios, almost all sub-Saharan African countries achieve an adequate per capita energy intake level but their nutritional status varies with many countries deviating from recommended levels because of the unbalanced development of macronutrient intake levels; more improvement exists in fat and energy intake levels and less agreement in fruit-vegetable and animal protein intake levels. Scenario application proves that the relationship between ENI and undernutrition could readily be applied in future scenarios generated by integrated assessment models to provide insights into the impacts of various climate change scenarios, socioeconomic development pathways and alternative global trade policies on global hunger and undernutrition status.

Decoupling Livestock from Land Use through Industrial Feed Production Pathways.

One of the main challenges for the 21st century is to balance the increasing demand for high-quality proteins while mitigating environmental impacts. In particular, cropland-based production of protein-rich animal feed for livestock rearing results in large-scale agricultural land-expansion, nitrogen pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. Here we propose and analyze the long-term potential of alternative animal feed supply routes based on industrial production of microbial proteins (MP). Our analysis reveals that by 2050, MP can replace, depending on socio-economic development and MP production pathways, between 10-19% of conventional crop-based animal feed protein demand. As a result, global cropland area, global nitrogen losses from croplands and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions can be decreased by 6% (0-13%), 8% (-3-8%), and 7% (-6-9%), respectively. Interestingly, the technology to industrially produce MP at competitive costs is directly accessible for implementation and has the potential to cause a major structural change in the agro-food system.

An integrated assessment of INDCs under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: an implementation of C3IAM

A series of global actions have been made to address climate change. As a recent developed climate policy, Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) have renewed attention to the importance of exploring temperature rise levels lower than 2 °C, in particular a long-term limit of 1.5 °C, compared to the preindustrial level. Nonetheless, achieving the 2 °C target under the current INDCs depends on dynamic socioeconomic development pathways. Therefore, this study conducts an integrated assessment of INDCs by taking into account different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). To that end, the CEEP-BIT research community develops the China’s Climate Change Integrated Assessment Model (C3IAM) to assess the climate change under SSPs in the context of with and without INDCs. Three SSPs, including “a green growth strategy” (SSP1), “a more middle-of-the-road development pattern” (SSP2) and “further fragmentation between regions” (SSP3) form the focus of this study. Results show that after considering INDCs, mitigation costs become very low and they have no evident positive changes in three SSPs. In 2100, a temperature rise would occur in SSP1-3, which is 3.20, 3.48 and 3.59 °C, respectively. There are long-term difficulties to keep warming well below 2 °C and pursue efforts toward 1.5 °C target even under INDCs. A drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is needed in order to mitigate potentially catastrophic climate change impacts. This work contributes on realizing the hard link between the earth and socioeconomic systems, as well as extending the economic models by coupling the global CGE model with the economic optimum growth model. In C3IAM, China’s energy consumption and emissions pattern are investigated and refined. This study can provide policy makers and the public a better understanding about pathways through which different scenarios could unfold toward 2100, highlights the real mitigation and adaption challenges faced by climate change and can lead to formulating effective policies.

Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios

At the current rate of global warming, the target of limiting it within 2 degrees by the end of the century seems more and more unrealistic. Policymakers, businesses and organizations leading international negotiations urge the scientific community to provide realistic and accurate assessments of the possible consequences of so called “high end” climate scenarios.This study illustrates a novel procedure to assess the future flood risk in Europe under high levels of warming. It combines ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios with recent advances in European flood hazard mapping. Further novelties include a threshold-based evaluation of extreme event magnitude and frequency, an alternative method to removing bias in climate projections, the latest pan-European exposure maps, and an improved flood vulnerability estimation.Estimates of population affected and direct flood damages indicate that by the end of the century the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe is projected to increase by an average 220% due to climate change only. When coherent socio-economic development pathways are included in the assessment, central estimates of population annually affected by floods range between 500,000 and 640,000 in 2050, and between 540,000 and 950,000 in 2080, as compared to 216,000 in the current climate. A larger range is foreseen in the annual flood damage, currently of 5.3 B€, which is projected to rise at 20–40 B€ in 2050 and 30–100 B€ in 2080, depending on the future economic growth.