Socio-ecological System Model Research Articles

Will changing land use and cropping practices affect resource use efficiency and environmental sustainability of agricultural systems? A hierarchical emergy assessment approach

Rapid loss of agricultural land is occurring in fast-growing urbanizing regions in Asia, accompanied by shifts from conventional cultivation practices to cope with changing social and economic demands. To date, comprehensive analyses of the relationship between agricultural land changes and overall regional development remain scarce. In addition, more research is needed to assess the impacts of different cropping practices on the regional agriculture systems from a micro perspective. This study focuses on Changhua County in Taiwan, incorporating its socioeconomic and environmental components into a socio-ecological system model. A hierarchical emergy synthesis framework for the whole county was used to explore the changing role of the agricultural system within the socioeconomic system. We used emergy synthesis to analyze and compare the performance of three cropping practices. The results indicate that the role of these cropping practices in the county's overall socioeconomic system has gradually diminished over time despite improvements in their operational efficiency. Among them, multi-cropping received the highest emergy inflows from the economic system and resulted in the highest energy density, while rice-grain rotation had the lowest. Although higher economic investment in multi-cropping influenced environmental loading and sustainability, its impact was relatively minor in the context of the entire county. We demonstrate the transition of agricultural practices in response to regional land use changes and suggest that regions experiencing severe land use changes should prioritize the adaptation of agricultural practices within the overall regional socioeconomic system. As cropping practices evolve, their functional integration within the system also changes, and their implications for resource efficiency and environmental sustainability should be assessed.

Organ donation decision-making in ICU patients: from the perspectives of organ coordinators and physicians in China – a qualitative study

ObjectivesIntensive care unit (ICU) dying patients are the most important source of organ donation. This study explores the reasons affecting organ donation in the Chinese sociocultural context from the perspectives...

Robust sensitivity analysis to uncertainties in environmental and socio-economic scenarios: A perspective from a global socio-ecological system model

Uncertainties exist in modelling and simulating complex socio-ecological systems due to unknown, unmeasurable, and uncontrollable occurrence probabilities of future conditions, which are often expressed through multiple representative future scenarios. The sensitivities of uncertain scenario parameters that comprise these scenarios may be different under different scenarios. To largely reduce unnecessary efforts of refining insensitive parameters, it is helpful to identify scenario parameters that remain sensitive in all plausible future scenarios. Based on a well-established global socio-ecological system model—Functional Enviro-economic Linkages Integrated neXus (FeliX), this study conducted robust sensitivity analyses of the scenario parameters that defined five representative environmental and socio-economic scenarios. The study explored their sensitivities on eco-environmental carrying capacity represented by six planetary boundary (PB) indicators. A three-step method was proposed for these analyses. First, an uncertainty analysis was adopted to explore the impacts of uncertain scenario parameters on PB indicators in each scenario using the Latin hypercube sampling and nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis test. Second, a sensitivity analysis was utilized to quantify the global sensitivity of each parameter using the Extended Fourier Transform Sensitivity Test (eFAST). Third, we conducted a robust sensitivity analysis and identified 12 common sensitive parameters that remained sensitive under all five scenarios by combining the eFAST's results according to four decision criteria representing different decision preferences. This study provides a better understanding of the sensitivity of scenario parameters on PB indicators influenced by future uncertainties across five representative scenarios in a complex socio-ecological system modelled by FeliX. The findings make it easier to improve and apply FeliX or other socio-ecological system models by focusing on key parameters and understanding important linkages of sectors in socio-ecological systems.

Socio-ecological contagion in Veganville

In order to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement for 1.5 °C global warming, per capita emissions need to come down to 2.9 tonnes by 2030. Food systems are known to be a significant source of an individual's carbon footprint and demand attention in sustainability management. The objective of this research is to conceptualise and define an intersection between contagion theory and socio-ecological systems models. This is achieved using a population dynamics model between two groups characterised by a distinct food regime: omnivores and vegans. The greenhouse gas emissions of each food regime is used to estimate the city's changing carbon foodprint as the food regimes shift by social contagion. Social contagion is identified as a catalyst for social tipping points, and emission pathways are explored with a variety of different contagion variables to test sensitivity towards a tipping point. The main finding is that the urban carbon foodprint can be reduced significantly with widespread adoption of veganism, but that the foodprint reaches a minimum at 1.97 tonnes CO2-equivalent per capita. This demonstrates the need to embed food demand in urban climate governance such as nudging towards plant-based food alternatives. Nudging is discussed as a lever of ecological importance to social contagion. Lastly, socio-ecological contagion is defined as the interactions between social contagion and damage done to ecological systems to measure peer-to-peer spread of environmental stewardship agendas, such as the journey to Veganville.

Interactive effect between long-term and short-term thermal history on outdoor thermal comfort: Comparison between Guangzhou, Zhuhai and Melbourne

Thermal history can influence human thermal comfort through physiological (short-term) and psychological (long-term) aspects. However, the nature of the interaction between long-term and short-term thermal history is unclear. To investigate the interactive effects of long-term and short-term thermal history on outdoor thermal comfort, we conducted summer thermal comfort surveys in Melbourne (n = 3293, January–February 2014), Guangzhou, and Zhuhai (n = 4304, September 2018). The mean thermal sensation of residents of Guangzhou was higher than that of Melbourne and Zhuhai residents under a similar Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) range. The preferred UTCI was the highest for Melbourne residents (19.62 °C). When UTCI was 25.6–38.4 °C, respondents' mean thermal sensation from Köppen climate zones A, B, and C was significantly higher in Guangzhou than those of Zhuhai and Melbourne. A three-way ANOVA test revealed that peoples' thermal sensations depended on a significant interaction among UTCI thermal stress levels, climate zones, and prior exposure environment. The prior exposure environment could affect the difference in thermal perception between climate zones. However, there was no significant interaction between climate zones and activity engaged in before taking the survey on thermal sensation. The difference in the thermal perception of various climate zones diminished under universally uncomfortable conditions for specific prior exposure environments and activities. The socio-ecological system model, environmental perception theory, climatocultural adaptation, and alliesthesia are useful for understanding the interactive effect of long- and short-term thermal history on outdoor thermal comfort. By revealing how people adapt to different climatic environments, our results can help ensure that people with diverse climatic backgrounds can experience thermal comfort outdoors.

Contrasting stakeholder and scientist conceptual models of food-energy-water systems: a case study in Magic Valley, Southern Idaho

One of the factors for the success of simulation studies is close collaboration with stakeholders in developing a conceptual model. Conceptual models are a useful tool for communicating and understanding how real systems work. However, models or frameworks that are not aligned with the perceptions and understanding of local stakeholders can induce uncertainties in the model outcomes. We focus on two sources of epistemic uncertainty in building conceptual models of food-energy-water systems (FEWS): (1) context and framing; and (2) model structure uncertainty. To address these uncertainties, we co-produced a FEWS conceptual model with key stakeholders using the Actor-Resources-Dynamics-Interaction (ARDI) method. The method was adopted to specifically integrate public (and local) knowledge of stakeholders in the Magic Valley region of Southern Idaho into a FEWS model. We first used the ARDI method with scientists and modellers (from various disciplines) conducting research in the system, and then repeated the process with local stakeholders. We compared results from the two cohorts and refined the conceptual model to align with local stakeholders’ understanding of the FEWS. This co-development of a conceptual model with local stakeholders ensured the incorporation of different perspectives and types of knowledge of key actors within the socio-ecological systems models.

Agent-based modelling of socio-ecological systems: Models, projects and ontologies

Socio-Ecological Systems (SESs) are the systems in which our everyday lives are embedded, so understanding them is important. The complex properties of such systems make modelling an indispensable tool for their description and analysis. Human actors play a pivotal role in SESs, but their interactions with each other and their environment are often underrepresented in SES modelling. We argue that more attention should be given to social aspects in models of SESs, but this entails additional kinds of complexity. Modelling choices need to be as transparent as possible, and to be based on analysis of the purposes and limitations of modelling. We recommend thinking in terms of modelling projects rather than single models. Such a project may involve multiple models adopting different modelling methods. We argue that agent-based models (ABMs) are an essential tool in an SES modelling project, but their expressivity, which is their major advantage, also produces problems with model transparency and validation. We propose the use of formal ontologies to make the structure and meaning of models as explicit as possible, facilitating model design, implementation, assessment, comparison and extension.

Sensitivity Analysis in Socio-Ecological Models as a Tool in Environmental Policy for Sustainability

The assessment of environmental policies and sustainability in socio-ecological systems (SES) should be tackled from a holistic perspective, using methodologies such as dynamic system models. However, the integral assessment of SES generally suffers from high levels of uncertainty. In this work, the potential of sensitivity analysis (SA) to assess uncertainty and its implications in SES models, specifically in the Fuerteventura sustainability model, has been explored. An extensive SA was applied in different stages of model development and application. The different SA techniques applied allowed, besides a detailed assessment of robustness, the identification of leverage points and their application to define environmental policies and management measures intended to improve sustainability. The results suggest that measures based on leverage points identified by the SA in the model are more effective than others proposed so far by different agents. Furthermore, the assessment of uncertainty of measures thought to contribute to sustainability shows that, when uncertainty ranges are considered, the thresholds of some sustainability indicators might be exceeded, whereas mean values would not. Therefore, the surpassing of some sustainability thresholds might go unnoticed if uncertainties are not considered in the policy analysis. This work shows SA to be a powerful tool that provides important insights to policy makers and end users, with regard to improving environmental policies for sustainability.

Modelling Sustainability Transitions: An Assessment of Approaches and Challenges

Transition modelling is an emerging but growing niche within the broader field of sustainability transitions research. The objective of this paper is to explore the characteristics of this niche in relation to a range of existing modelling approaches and literatures with which it shares commonalities or from which it could draw. We distil a number of key aspects we think a transitions model should be able to address, from a broadly acknowledged, empirical list of transition characteristics. We review some of the main strands in modelling of socio-technological change with regards to their ability to address these characteristics. These are: Eco-innovation literatures (energy-economy models and Integrated Assessment Models), evolutionary economics, complex systems models, computational social science simulations using agent based models, system dynamics models and socio-ecological systems models. The modelling approaches reviewed can address many of the features that differentiate sustainability transitions from other socio-economic dynamics or innovations. The most problematic features are the representation of qualitatively different system states and of the normative aspects of change. The comparison provides transition researchers with a starting point for their choice of a modelling approach, whose characteristics should correspond to the characteristics of the research question they face. A promising line of research is to develop innovative models of co-evolution of behaviours and technologies towards sustainability, involving change in the structure of the societal and technical systems.

Study of thermal satisfaction in an Australian educational precinct

This study aimed to understand the role of thermal expectations in achieving thermal comfort in outdoor spaces. Three open spaces in an educational precinct located in the temperate setting of Australia were selected as case study sites to explore how thermal expectations may affect people's thermal responses to outdoor micrometeorological conditions. Three types of data collection methods including questionnaire survey, field measurement and on-site observations were employed to collect thermal comfort information in three consecutive seasons (November 2014, February 2015, and May 2015). Three measures of thermal satisfaction (preferred temperature, neutral temperature, and acceptable thermal range) extracted from people's thermal preferences and sensations were used to analyse the field survey data, determine thermal comfort requirements, and examine thermal stress in the study context. A multi-model theoretical framework was then adopted to explain the pattern of thermal satisfaction among the target population. This framework consisted of three models: “Socio-ecological system model (SESM)”, “theory of Alliesthesia” and “theory of rising expectations”. The study demonstrated the efficiency of above-mentioned framework to explore thermal comfort requirements in an educational precinct. Overall, the results challenged the validity of equivalency of thermal neutrality and thermal satisfaction enshrined in comfort standards in the study context.

An overview of the system dynamics process for integrated modelling of socio-ecological systems: Lessons on good modelling practice from five case studies

Similar to other modelling methodologies, the potential of system dynamics to contribute to system understanding and decision making depends upon the practices applied by the modeller. However lessons about many of these practices are often unreported. This paper contributes to the methodology of system dynamics modelling of socio-ecological systems by 1) examining issues modellers face during the modelling process, and 2) providing guidance on how to effectively design and implement system dynamics modelling. This is achieved through an investigation of five case studies, drawing on lessons from these experiences. This is complemented by a literature review of system dynamics applied within the context of integrated modelling and environmental DSS. The case studies cover a variety of environmental issues and system dynamics modelling methods and tools. Although we used system dynamics as the common lens from which lessons are drawn, many of these insights transcend to other integrated modelling approaches.

The effect of physical and psychological environments on the users thermal perceptions of educational urban precincts

Assessment of outdoor thermal comfort requirements is of primary importance in the development of sustainable outdoor environments, including urban precincts. The full understanding of thermally comfortable outdoor conditions requires investigating other factors that are beyond the thermophysiological aspect of thermal comfort, including those contextual factors that are contextually impacting people's thermal judgment. Using a socio-ecological system model (SESM) as the research framework, this study aimed to investigate the role of physical environmental factors (i.e. weather conditions, including solar radiation intensity and design descriptors, such as sky view factor and aspect ratio, length of residence, and time of exposure) and psychological environmental factors (i.e. users' overall comfort and thermal preference, purpose and frequency of visit, seasonal change, thermal history, consideration of weather forecasts, character and features of place, and naturalness). The data used in this study were collected during three rounds of field surveys consisting of on-site measurements and questionnaire surveys. The field surveys were conducted in three case study sites, which are on the premises of an educational precinct in Melbourne, Australia, from November 2014 to May 2015. The analytical results demonstrated a medium and low influence of physical and psychological factors on outdoor thermal sensations, respectively. The research outcome has shed light on those aspects of thermal comfort that are yet to be fully understood in outdoor spaces.

Building a translational science on children and youth affected by political violence and armed conflict: A commentary.

Articles in this timely Special Section represent an important milestone in the developmental science on children and youth involved in political violence and armed conflict. With millions of children worldwide affected by past and present wars and conflicts, there is an urgent and growing need for research to inform efforts to understand, prevent, and mitigate the possible harm of such violence to individual children, families, communities, and societies, for present as well as future generations. The four programs of research highlighted in this Special Section illustrate key advances and challenges in contemporary development research on young people growing up in the midst or aftermath of political violence. These studies are longitudinal, methodologically sophisticated, and grounded in socioecological systems models that align well with current models of risk and resilience in developmental psychopathology. These studies collectively mark a critically important shift to process-focused research that holds great promise for translational applications. Nonetheless, given the scope of the international crisis of children and youth affected by political violence and its sequelae, there is an urgent global need for greater mobilization of resources to support translational science and effective evidence-based action.

The effect of individual and social environments on the users thermal perceptions of educational urban precincts

Assessment of outdoor thermal comfort provides a valuable insight into the performance of outdoor built environments. During the last four decades the number of the thermal comfort studies focused on the impact of microclimate parameters on human health and wellbeing has increased. Meanwhile, advances in the thermal comfort studies have expanded to include non-thermal factors including the social and individual parameters indirectly interacting with thermal perceptions. These factors are believed to be contextual-based and this study aimed to understand their effects on the outdoor thermal perceptions in educational outdoor spaces. The data used in this study was collected during three rounds of the field surveys consisting of measurement and questionnaire surveys. The field surveys were conducted in three case studies which were the premises of a university campus in Melbourne, Australia, from November 2014 to May 2015. Using a Socio-ecological System Model (SESM) as the research framework, this study aimed to investigate the role of non-thermal factors that are classified under the individual environment (gender, age group, exposure to sun, level of activity and clothing insulation, skin colour) and the social environment (position, companionship and cultural background). The analytical results demonstrated the medium and low influence of individual and social environments on outdoor thermal sensation, respectively. The research outcome is specific to thermal comfort requirements in the educational precincts but also can apply to similar climate and contextual conditions. The results may be used to inform decisions made in the phase of design and planning for development of educational outdoor spaces.

Cooperation and collapse in a communal livestock production SES model – A case from South Africa

Institutional arrangements are considered necessary for successfully governing the commons. They are considered to be most effective if they are self-organized rather than imposed from outside. However, endogenous institutional arrangements, such as local norms, are specific to a particular socio-ecological system (SES). This paper presents a SES model of communal livestock producers in South Africa. Its bio-physical component accounts for the impact of biotic and abiotic factors on livestock population. The social agent-based component models individual and socially determined behaviour, the latter of which is a social norm specific to the case. Model results show that when cooperative agents obey and sanction the norm, there is less likelihood of SES collapse in terms of livestock population crashes. However, cooperation among agents only emerges in times of ecological crisis where social reorganization is fostered. The crisis creates an opportunity for initializing a self-enforcing process of mutual cooperation. Model specifications are based on survey data, and agents were parameterized according to individual household data. A sensitivity analysis shows that this empirical heterogeneity cannot be reduced without changing model outcomes.

Assessment of ecosystem integrity and service gradients across Europe using the LTER Europe network

Better integration of knowledge from ecological, social and economic science is necessary to advance the understanding and modelling of socio-ecological systems. To model ecosystem integrity (EI) and ecosystem services (ES) at the landscape scale, assessment matrices are commonly used. These matrices assign capacities to provide different services to different land cover types. We revised such an existing matrix and examined the regional heterogeneity in EI and ES provision in Europe and searched for spatial gradients in their provision to elucidate their suitability for large-scale EI and ES mapping in Europe. Overall, 28 sites belonging to the Long-Term Ecological Research network in Europe participated in this study, covering a longitudinal gradient from Spain to Bulgaria and a latitudinal gradient from Italy to Sweden. As a primary outcome, an improved and consolidated EI and ES matrix was achieved with 17.5% of all matrix fields updated. For the first time, this new matrix also contains measures of uncertainty for each entry. EI and ES provision assessments were more variable for natural and semi-natural than for more anthropogenically dominated land cover classes. Among the main types of EI and ES, cultural service provision was rated most heterogeneously in Europe, while abiotic provisioning services were more constant. Longitudinal and latitudinal EI and ES gradients were mostly detected in natural and semi-natural land cover types where temperature and precipitation are major drivers. In anthropogenically determined systems in which cultural services play a dominant role, temperature and precipitation gradients were less important. Our results suggest that this matrix approach to assess EI and ES provision principally works on broad spatial scales; however, local assessments for natural systems seem to be less generalizable than assessments from anthropogenically determined systems. Provisioning and regulating services are more generalizable than cultural services. Particularly in natural and semi-natural systems, spatial gradients need to be considered. We discuss uncertainties associated with this matrix-based EI and ES assessment approach and suggest that future large-scale studies should include additional land cover information and ecosystem disservices and may determine ES fluxes by differentiating between ES provision and consumption.

From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models

The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept.