Societal Vulnerability Research Articles

Ripples of Negligence: Unravelling Iraq’s Descent from Water Abundance to Scarcity

ABSTRACT This study critically assesses security dynamics in developing nations, centering on water scarcity in Iraq. It challenges the reductionist perspective that equates security solely with the absence of military threats, positing instead that the governing body itself can constitute an existential threat to the state. Many developing countries, typified by a myopic conception of security, have engendered internal insecurity. Iraq exemplifies this paradigm, where successive ruling elites, marked by military adventurism and administrative incompetence, directly precipitate water scarcity. The nation’s ominous trajectory results from governmental prioritization of external threats over essential societal well-being. This article elucidates the intricate interplay between governance priorities and societal vulnerabilities, advocating for a more comprehensive understanding of security that transcends conventional militaristic frameworks. The analysis underscores the urgent need for recalibrating security paradigms in developing countries to address internal threats emanating from governmental neglect and skewed priorities.

A comparison of intense rainfall characteristics and mechanisms between monsoon onset and retreat over the Yangtze River Basin

ABSTRACT The thermodynamic and convective characteristics of the seasonal progression of the monsoon over eastern China are examined, with the aim of understanding why regional heavy rainfall events (RHREs) over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) are more frequent and intense during the monsoon progression from mid-June to mid-July than during the retreat from mid-August to mid-September. During the monsoon progression, the southerly monsoon flow at low and mid-levels intensifies and moves northward, while the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts northeastward. These changes result in enhanced moisture advection over eastern China. The stronger southerly flow brings warmer and moist air into the YRB, leading to a higher equivalent potential temperature (θE) and favouring convection. Conversely, during the monsoon retreat, the northerly flow becomes stronger and drier, causing lower θE air over the YRB. Additionally, as the Western Pacific subtropical anticyclone retreats, easterly prevailing winds prevail over eastern China, causing reduced specific humidity. The monsoon progression period exhibits higher convective available potential energy but also higher convective inhibition, which is overcome by the presence of the monsoon front providing sufficient dynamical uplift. Understanding the severity of RHREs, particularly over the YRB, is crucial for improving forecasting capabilities and reducing societal vulnerability.

Climatological distribution of ocean acidification variables along the North American ocean margins

Abstract. Climatologies, which depict mean fields of oceanographic variables on a regular geographic grid, and atlases, which provide graphical depictions of specific areas, play pivotal roles in comprehending the societal vulnerabilities linked to ocean acidification (OA). This significance is particularly pronounced in coastal regions where most economic activities, such as commercial and recreational fisheries and aquaculture industries, occur. In this paper, we unveil a comprehensive data product featuring coastal ocean acidification climatologies and atlases, encompassing the fugacity of carbon dioxide, pH on the total scale, total hydrogen ion content, free hydrogen ion content, carbonate ion content, aragonite saturation state, calcite saturation state, Revelle factor, total dissolved inorganic carbon content, and total alkalinity content. These variables are provided on 1° × 1° spatial grids at 14 standardized depth levels, ranging from the surface to a depth of 500 m, along the North American ocean margins, defined as the region between the coastline and a distance of 200 nautical miles (∼370 km) offshore. The climatologies and atlases were developed using the World Ocean Atlas (WOA) gridding methods of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) based on the recently released Coastal Ocean Data Analysis Product in North America (CODAP-NA), along with the 2021 update to the Global Ocean Data Analysis Project version 2 (GLODAPv2.2021) data product. The relevant variables were adjusted to the index year of 2010. The data product is available in NetCDF (https://doi.org/10.25921/g8pb-zy76, Jiang et al., 2022b) on the NOAA Ocean Carbon and Acidification Data System: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/ncei/ocads/metadata/0270962.html (last access: 15 July 2024). It is recommended to use the objectively analyzed mean fields (with “_an” suffix) for each variable. The atlases can be accessed at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/ocean-carbon-acidification-data-system/synthesis/nacoastal.html (last access: 15 July 2024).

Severe magnitude of dental and skeletal fluorosis and its impact on society and environment in a part of Manbhum-Singhbhum Plateau, India

BackgroundNumerous approaches have been adopted to evaluate limited freshwater resources and the associated health hazards due to excessive amounts of fluoride in drinking water. The study aims to assess the degree and severity of dental and skeletal fluorosis and examine the broader effects of fluorosis on human health and society in the Manbhum-Singhbhum Plateau region, India.MethodsThe Community Fluorosis Index (CFI) and Dean’s Index have been used to measure the magnitude and severity of dental and skeletal fluorosis. Questionnaire surveys, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), and appropriate statistical methods have been applied to identify the social impacts. Risk-prone zones have been identified through overlay analysis using geoinformatics.ResultsAbout 54.60% of people in 67 villages of this part of the Manbhum-Singhbhum Plateau are affected in varying degrees of fluorosis ranging from very mild to mild, moderate, and severe dental fluorosis. Among these 67 villages, Janra (Manbazar I) and Hijla (Barabazar) have the most severely affected people. School dropout (n = 426), social isolation (n = 149), remarriage (n = 21), and physically disabled (n = 75) have also been reported. The study shows that about 414.29 km2 of the Manbhum-Singhbhum Plateau comes under the high-risk-prone category.ConclusionsThe societal and environmental awareness of the fluorosis-affected individuals is almost absent in this region. Economic hardships, lack of education, inadequate health care facilities, water scarcity, and lack of awareness increase the magnitude of health hazards and societal vulnerability of the people in this region, who are largely dependent on natural resources.

Joining forces: Developing a smoking prevention intervention in social work organisations through co-creation with adolescents and youth workers

BackgroundAdolescents experiencing societal vulnerability confront a higher risk of smoking initiation, thereby perpetuating health disparities. To develop a smoking prevention intervention tailored to these adolescents, employing a participatory approach such as co-creation with adolescents and key stakeholders can ensure alignment with their needs. Navigating a co-creation process, especially concerning a sensitive topic like smoking, remains uncharted territory in existing literature, particularly when engaging with hard-to-reach youth. ObjectiveThis paper describes the co-creative process underpinning the KickAsh!-intervention, a smoking prevention program involving youth workers and 10–15-year-olds experiencing societal vulnerability. MethodsFour youth workers (Mage = 23.75 ± 0.96 years) and nine adolescents (Mage = 13.56 ± 0.73 years) from two social work organisations in Ghent, Belgium, participated in an eight-month co-creation trajectory together with two academic researchers and one design thinking specialist. The Double Diamond Model (DDM) and the Intervention Mapping Protocol (IMP) facilitated this trajectory. The objectives and working methods from each co-creation session are described. ResultsThe outcomes of each co-creation session and how these findings have shaped the development of the KickAsh!-intervention – a comprehensive website consisting of materials developed in collaboration with youth workers and adolescents – are described. ConclusionThis paper emphasises the value of prioritising participatory designs (such as DDM) structured by a theory- and evidence-based framework for intervention development (such as IMP). This approach enabled us to devise intervention strategies rooted in the lived experiences of adolescents and youth workers, ensuring practicality within the given context. The developed KickAsh!-intervention closely aligns with the preferences of both adolescents and youth workers. It prioritises creative elements informed by theory and scientific evidence with the expectation of achieving impact. However, further research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of the KickAsh!-intervention.

Changes in tornado risk and societal vulnerability leading to greater tornado impact potential

Tornado risk, as determined by the occurrence of atmospheric conditions that support tornado incidence, has exhibited robust spatial trends in the United States Southern Plains and Mid-South during recent decades. The consequences of these risk changes have not been fully explored, especially in conjunction with growing societal vulnerability. Herein, we assess how changes in risk and vulnerability over the last 40 years have collectively and individually altered tornado-housing impact potential. Results indicate that escalating vulnerability and exposure have outweighed the effects of spatially changing risk. However, the combination of increasing risk and exposure has led to a threefold increase in Mid-South housing exposure since 1980. Though Southern Plains tornado risk has decreased since 1980, amplifying exposure has led to more than a 50% increase in mean annual tornado-housing impact potential across the region. Stakeholders should use these findings to develop more holistic mitigation and resilience-building strategies that consider a dynamically changing tornado disaster landscape.

Challenges in the Prevention and Management of Adolescent Pregnancy and School Dropout by Adolescent Mothers in South Africa

Owing to the social, economic, health, educational and psychological implications of adolescent pregnancy, there had been many attempts to stop this phenomenon. These efforts, however, do not seem to be succeeding given its acceleration, generally in South Africa. The schooling of many adolescent girls gets disturbed by their pregnancy and others discontinue with schooling postpartum. This exacerbates South Africa’s challenges of unemployment, poverty, intergenerational illiteracy, and general societal vulnerability. The Pregnant Learner Management Policy contributed to the dropout rates as it prohibited adolescent mothers from returning to school before they had spent two years with their babies. It has since been replaced with the National Policy on the Prevention and Management of Learner Pregnancy in Schools, but reintegration remains a challenge. The pregnancy and reintegration challenges are aggravated by institutional, social, economic, cultural, and religious barriers. The pregnancies are due to several factors such as poor and inconsistent uptake of contraceptives, and inadequate parental involvement and guidance on the sexual and reproductive health education of the adolescents. The study used qualitative research techniques to delve deeper into the adolescent pregnancy and school dropout phenomenon; research participants were sampled from the three provinces with the highest number of births that were delivered by adolescents, namely KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo, and Eastern Cape.

Critical perspective on infodemic and infodemic management in previous Ebola outbreaks in Uganda.

This research investigates the complex dynamics of Uganda's recent Ebola outbreaks, emphasizing the interplay between disease spread, misinformation, and existing societal vulnerabilities. Highlighting poverty as a core element, it delves into how socioeconomic factors exacerbate health crises. The study scrutinizes the role of political economy, medical pluralism, health systems, and informal networks in spreading misinformation, further complicating response efforts. Through a comprehensive analysis, this study aims to shed light on the multifaceted challenges faced in combating epidemics in resource-limited settings. It calls for integrated strategies that address not only the biological aspects of the disease but also the socioeconomic and informational ecosystems that influence public health outcomes. This perspective research contributes to a better understanding of how poverty, medical pluralism, political economy, misinformation, and health emergencies intersect, offering insights for future preparedness and response initiatives.

The publicness of voluntary action during crisis: From resilience mechanisms to resistance tactics

ABSTRACT Although the volunteerism approach is regarded as a helpful strategy, critical concerns arise regarding the dynamics of vulnerability and the publicness of disaster-affected communities’ collective action. This study aims to examine the publicness meaning of public interest and its function in enhancing resilience capacity through voluntary action. Using a hermeneutic approach, this study investigates the collective action of “Canthelan” food sharing within the environmental structure of the Special Region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia, during the COVID-19 outbreak. The findings indicate that voluntary action in the context of “Canthelan” is a response to crises accumulated by the pandemic’s socioeconomic threat, the emergence of societal vulnerabilities, and the failure of social protection policies. Voluntary action functions as an alternative resilience mechanism for vulnerable and disadvantaged communities by providing access to and control over food resources in an egalitarian interaction space. Simultaneously, the constructed mechanisms become structurally aggregated knowledge narratives and manifestations of contestation concerning the development of resilience. Voluntary action mechanisms contribute to the development of social resilience through the mediation process, which is a process of mutual support and interaction to face and adapt to threats. However, the deterministic view of power authority hinders the transformative capacity of voluntary action.

Analysing barriers to humanitarian logistics for distributing relief aid in pre- and post-disaster situations

The purpose of this paper is to analyze key challenges in implementing the relief measures of humanitarian logistics (HL) in the pre- and post-occurrence of the disaster. Analyzing the severity of barriers to humanitarian logistics assists decision-makers and policymakers in reducing societal vulnerability and ensuring efficient allocation of resources in a disastrous environment. An integrated decision-making framework comprising Grey-Delphi and Grey-DEMATEL is employed based on the survey results obtained from various experts and stakeholders in humanitarian logistics. A recent natural calamity that happened in the state of Assam, India, has been selected as a viable case study for the study. Existing barriers to HL have been identified from the prior literature. The factors are further validated by the practitioners and experts in the case context using the Grey-Delphi technique. Further, the causal-prominence relation between HL barriers is revealed by using the Grey-DEMATEL tool. The findings of the study suggest that obsolete IT infrastructure, inconsistent quality monitoring procedures of the relief aids, uncertain and complex geographical conditions, failure of early warning systems, difficulties in last-mile deliveries, and poor coordination among stakeholders serve as critical factors that hinder the efficient functioning of humanitarian logistics in the Indian context. Several managerial and theoretical implications are based on the findings of the study.

Intersecting social-ecological vulnerabilities to and lived experiences of sexually transmitted infections among Syrian refugee women in Lebanon: A qualitative study.

Conflict-affected women and girls living in protracted forced displacement settings are vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Yet, little is known about the risk factors for and lived experiences of STIs in complex humanitarian settings, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, where STIs have long been understudied. This qualitative study adapts the social ecological model to characterize the multi-level risks for and lived experiences of STIs among Syrian refugee women resettled in an urban refugee camp in Beirut, Lebanon. Adopting a community-based sampling strategy, community health workers, who were refugee women from the camp, recruited and conducted in-depth interviews (IDIs) with 30 adult Syrian refugee women. Data were analyzed using an interpretative phenomenological approach and thematically organized according to the levels of the social ecological model. We identified a confluence of individual, interpersonal, community-based, and societal vulnerabilities to STIs, including extreme poverty and insecurity, patriarchal gender norms, stigma, sexual exploitation and trafficking, poor healthcare accessibility, intimate partner violence, including marital rape, transactional sex, sexual harassment, social isolation, and internalized stigma. Participants described experiencing bothersome symptoms and sequelae of advanced and untreated STIs in the setting of limited access to health services and challenges with engaging their partners in STI treatment, largely due to STI stigma. These novel findings suggest dynamic, interrelated social and health disparities across all social ecological levels influencing refugee women's sexual health, including their risk of STIs. Comprehensive, multi-sectorial interventions, which transcend traditional public health methods and which adopt a sexual well-being approach, are urgently needed to address systemic and intrapersonal violence against refugee women, examine and mitigate the burden of STIs, and ensure sexual justice and health equity in this protracted forced displacement setting.

Risk Assessment and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors of Debris Flows in Typical Arid Mountain Environment: A Case Study of Central Tien Shan Mountains, China

The Tien Shan Mountain range connects Central Asia with northwestern China and is a crucial transport junction between East and West Asia. It is a common location for regional debris flows, which pose a significant risk to ecological security and the safety of people and property. Nevertheless, limited knowledge exists about the distribution of disaster risks and the impacted populations. This study uses advanced machine learning techniques to identify the key natural and social factors influencing these hazards and incorporates the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) to assess societal vulnerability. The outcomes demonstrate that (1) the debris flow hazard in the Tien Shan Mountain area is primarily governed by the geological structure, which dictates the material source and, in turn, dictates the onset of debris flows. (2) The vulnerability demonstrates a high spatial tendency in the north and a low one in the south, with evident spatial clustering characteristics. (3) A total of 19.13% of the study area is classified as high-hazard, with specific distribution zones including the northern foothills of the Tien Shan Mountains, the low-mountain zones of the southern foothills of the Tien Shan Mountains, and the Yili Valley zone. This holistic approach offers valuable insights into the spatial distribution of risks, aiding in prioritizing disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts. Also, our findings and conclusions are beneficial for local decision makers to allocate resources effectively and promote sustainable development practices in the region.

Psychological Underpinnings of Terror Awareness: A Comprehensive Dive into Ukrainians’ Perception of Terrorist Threats Amidst War Tensions

This article delves into the intricate dynamics of terrorist threat perceptions, particularly within the context of the Russian–Ukrainian war. By weaving together narrative understanding, cognitive and metacognitive styles, the challenges of information warfare, neuropsychological reactions, and resilience mechanisms, the research casts light on the complex interplay of psychological factors that shape Ukrainians’ perception of terrorist threats. Drawing from a diverse participant pool, the study identifies four major factors: “Comprehensive Threat Response and Socio-Psychological Terror Impact,” “Eco-Social Strain Perception and Cultural Identity and Societal Concerns,” “Physical and Societal Vulnerability and Intrinsic Fears and Moral Evolution,” and “Interpersonal Strains and Behavioral Indicators.” These elements offer an intricate understanding of how terrorist threats are perceived at both individual and societal levels. The findings underscore the importance of interdisciplinary and holistic approaches in comprehending and navigating the nuances of perceived threats amidst geopolitical unrest.

Verifying empirical predictive modeling of societal vulnerability to hazardous events: A Monte Carlo experimental approach

Verifying empirical predictive modeling of societal vulnerability to hazardous events: A Monte Carlo experimental approach

Agents of Economic Resilience and the Role of Islamic Approach Towards Financial Inclusion During the Covid-19 Pandemic: A Case of Pakistan

In times of hyperinflation, these days Pakistan is confronted with health financing and food crises. It is essential to decrease the likelihood of food insecurity and economic vulnerability. This study aims to investigate the Vulnerability of society to pandemic shocks and the resilience of an Islamic nation such as Pakistan, as well as to investigate and identify the agents of Economic resilience in Pakistan. This study also investigated the function of Islamic financial inclusion strategies during pandemics. This study utilizes a variety of data categories and methods. The study's conclusion was reached using both primary and secondary qualitative and quantitative data. The study found that the majority of individuals are susceptible to such disruptions in terms of health, income, and social construction. The study revealed that there are numerous economic resilience agents in Pakistan, which play a significant role in bolstering support for small households and poor families. The analysis of quantitative data sets revealed that interventions or agents of change/resilience have had a significant impact on reducing hunger risk, infant deprivation, and other societal vulnerabilities. The conclusion of the study is that both formal and informal service providers contribute to enhancing the community's resilience through financial inclusion and a transitory support system. The conclusion of the study argues that the Islamic approach to financial transactions is more dependable and satisfactory for households and community-oriented organizations.

Global trends in disruptive technological change: social and policy implications for education

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to identify global trends in disruptive technological change and map the social and policy implications, particularly as they relate to the educational ecosystem and main stakeholders across all levels of education.Design/methodology/approachThe authors conducted a two-stage meta-analysis of 1,155 scholarly, peer-reviewed articles. The investigation involves a systematized literature review for data identification and collation adhering to defined selection criteria, and a network analysis to scrutinize data, consolidate information and unveil correlations and patterns from the literature review to produce a set of recommendations.FindingsThe study unveiled educational trends related to disruptive technologies and delineated four principal clusters representing how these technologies are transforming the education ecosystem. Additionally, a series of transversal aspects that reveal a societal vulnerability toward future prospects in the realms of ethics, sustainability, resilience, security, and policy were identified.Practical implicationsThe findings spotlight an enlarging chasm between industry (and society at large) and conventional education, where many transformations triggered by disruptive technologies remain absent from teaching and learning systems. The study further offers recommendations and envisions potential scenarios, urging stakeholders to respond based on their positions concerning disruptive technologies.Originality/valueExpanding from the meta-analysis of pertinent literature, this paper offers four collections of curated resources, four mini case studies and four scenarios for policymakers and local communities to consider, enabling them to plot courses for their optimal futures.

GLOBAL CLIMATIC TRANSFORMATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

Global climate change has tremendous economic, environmental and social implications for Pakistan. Recently, there has been increased awareness about inevitability of climate change and the realization that though everyone is affected, yet not equally. The central argument of this paper is that Pakistan is the victim of global climate change and facing consequences of the action it has not committed. We will analyze the global perspective of climate change, how Pakistan is being affected by climate change and what is policy response of Pakistan for adapting and responding. We will apply qualitative approach for our analysis. Developing world is facing challenges of poor governance, resource scarcity and violence, thus suffer greater because of natural disasters. Pakistan is among those countries which have experienced increasing frequency of flooding and droughts, erratic weather and agricultural pattern, loss of biodiversity and decline in freshwater availability. Social theory forms the basis of understanding of climate related threats to developing countries. It gives rise to conceptual framework of societal vulnerability, which can be used to explain why Pakistan is the major victim of global climate change. Pakistan has experienced serious impacts of climate change in various sectors like agriculture, water scarcity, inter provincial conflicts over resources, public heath, floods and other extreme weather events. This calls for rapid climate action and concrete policy for addressing this rapidly deteriorating situation. The country should enhance is disaster management and coping capacity and work on building the resilience of people and institutions. Availability and distribution of fresh water must be guided by laws formed by coordination of central ad provincial government. For efficient administration, interaction, and implementation, it is crucial to combine the relevant ministries under the aegis of provincial and federal disaster response organizations. Keywords: climate change, Pakistan, social theory, floods, food security, water scarcity.

STATUS OF CLIMATE VULNERABILLIES, HUMAN RESPONCIBILLIES AND CHALLENGES

As global climate change continues to manifest in various forms, the urgency to comprehensively assess its implications for human societies is paramount. This article presents a thorough examination of climate vulnerabilities and their imminent consequences, highlighting the critical role of human responsibility in addressing these challenges. The study synthesizes a wide range of empirical evidence and expert insights to provide an integrated assessment of the multifaceted impacts of climate change on various sectors, including ecosystems, health, agriculture, migration, and socio-economic equity. Drawing from a substantial body of literature, including reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other reputable sources, this article underscores the complexity and interconnectedness of climate vulnerabilities. It delves into the consequences of rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events on ecosystems and biodiversity, underscoring the pressing need for conservation efforts. It’s elucidates the pronounced impacts of climate change on human health, infectious diseases, and food security, emphasizing the importance of adaptive strategies and policy interventions. The article also examines the intricate relationship between climate change and human migration, exploring how environmental stressors amplify societal vulnerabilities and raise ethical considerations. In sum, this article provides a comprehensive assessment of climate vulnerabilities and emphasizes the shared responsibility of human society in tackling these challenges. By recognizing the intricate web of consequences that climate change presents, this study serves as a call to action for policymakers, researchers, and individuals alike, urging coordinated efforts to safeguard our planet’s future.

Review of Vulnerability Factors Linking Climate Change and Conflict

This systematic literature review gathers societal vulnerability factors linking climate change and conflict from 53 existing studies. The findings reveal three main points. First, four relevant factors are missing from a previous vulnerability analysis framework proposed by Pearson and Newman: land degradation/land cover, gender, customs, and geographical conditions. Second, two factors, access to technology (e.g., for climate change adaptation) and partially democratic states, are insufficiently studied. Third, classification criteria in the previous framework need revision for accuracy. Considering these points, this study proposes a modified vulnerability analysis framework and offers five suggestions for future research directions in climate security research. First, more qualitative case studies are needed to complement the quantitative work. Second, in particular, cases where conflict was avoided or cooperation was established in high vulnerability areas need further research. Third, further research is needed on understudied factors (e.g., access to technology and partial democracy) and on factors the conventional framework cannot explain (e.g., land degradation/land cover, gender, customs, and geographical conditions). Fourth, no single vulnerability factor leads to conflict in isolation, but only in interaction; their connections must be studied. Finally, case studies are needed on vulnerability factors in countries and regions that have suffered from climate change but have not experienced conflict.

What were we thinking? A scoping review of crisis management pandemic literature (1984–2019)

AbstractPandemics are now the focus of research attention in the fields of preparedness and crisis management. As pandemics are some of the largest crises to occur, an important question becomes ‘what were the field of crisis management thinking about pandemic management’. This paper investigates how the field of crisis management have incorporated the body of knowledge arising from pandemics into its science (from 1984 to 2019). We performed a scoping review of 4 journals on crisis management and what they have written about pandemics (230 papers). The findings are summarized in eight different categories. The main result is that the field of crisis management have shown sparse interest in pandemics. We attribute this to factors such as fragmentation of academic sciences when the problem‐solving needs integration, perceived incommensurability and the organization of attention. We argue that the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic can provide a basis for posing new questions in research on, and the political debate around, societal vulnerability at large and not only restricted to recent experiences of particular crises. Finally, we argue that this will need a stronger integration of research strands and communities, which in turn require the ability to ‘connect the dots’ between different sources of knowledge.