Snow-rich Winters Research Articles

Century-long multi-source analyses highlight decreasing vulnerability for a small, debris-covered and avalanche-fed glacier in the eastern Italian Alps

Small, debris-covered and avalanche-fed glaciers are widespread in high-relief areas of the world. However, their climatic response is poorly known because they cannot be investigated with ‘traditional’ techniques, like the glaciological mass-balance method, and long-term observations series are very rare. This work documents changes in elevation, mass balance rate and surface cover in the last century (from 1920 to 2020) for the small, debris-covered and avalanche-fed Montasio Glacier, where recent investigations show unusual response to climatic changes, but it is unclear whether this response is a short- or a long-term characteristic. Glacier response is analysed primarily through Digital Elevation Models reconstructed from different types of data sources (maps, terrestrial and aerial images, point clouds). Glacier changes are analysed jointly with trends in the most relevant climatic variables. The glacier experienced phases of rapid mass loss between 1920 and 1948 (−0.49 m w.e. y-1) and between 1982 and 2006 (−0.36 m w.e. y-1). Smaller imbalance occurred between 1948 and 1982 (−0.14 m w.e. y-1) and, remarkably, between 2006 and 2020 (−0.03 m w.e. y-1). Whereas the 1948–1982 was a favourable time-window for most glaciers in the Alps, the last fifteen years were characterized by rapid warming and show a clear divergence between the behaviour of the Montasio Glacier and of the rest of Alpine glaciers. A century-long increase in debris cover, now 2–3 m thick in the lower half of the glacier, explains largely this divergence. Snow-rich winters in recent years also played a role, because the glacier reacts sensitively to changes in solid precipitation. Even in the case of possible decreased snowfalls and increased melt associated with warming temperatures during the next decades, the glacier is not expected to vanish soon, because it will likely survive under a thick layer of debris and shadowed by the north walls of the Mount Jôf di Montasio. On the other hand, the results of this study, paired with the current distribution of permafrost in the study area, suggest that the Montasio Glacier will unlikely evolve into a rock glacier or a glacial-permafrost composite landform.

How catchment characteristics influence hydrological pathways and travel times in a boreal landscape

Abstract. Understanding travel times and hydrological pathways of rain and snowmelt water transported through the landscape to recipient surface waters is critical in many hydrological and biogeochemical investigations. In this study, a particle-tracking model approach in Mike SHE was used to investigate the pathway and its associated travel time of water in 14 partly nested, long-term monitored boreal sub-catchments of the Krycklan catchment (0.12–68 km2). This region is characterized by long and snow-rich winters with little groundwater recharge and highly dynamic runoff during spring snowmelt. The geometric mean of the annual travel time distribution (MTTgeo) for the studied sub-catchments varied from 0.8 to 2.7 years. The variations were related to the different landscape types and their varying hydrological responses during different seasons. Winter MTTgeo ranged from 1.2 to 7.7 years, while spring MTTgeo varied from 0.5 to 1.9 years. The modelled variation in annual and seasonal MTTgeo and the fraction of young water (<3 months) was supported by extensive observations of both δ18O and base cation concentrations in the different streams. The travel time of water to streams was positively correlated with the area coverage of low-conductive silty sediments (r=0.90, P<0.0001). Catchments with mixed soil–landscape settings typically displayed larger variability in seasonal MTTgeo, as contrasting hydrological responses between different soil types (e.g. peat in mires, till and silty sediments) are integrated. The areal coverage of mires was especially important for the young water contribution in spring (r=0.96, P<0.0001). The main factor for this was attributed to extensive soil frost in mires, causing considerable overland flow during the snowmelt period. However, this lower groundwater recharge during snowmelt caused mire-dominated catchments to have longer stream runoff MTTgeo than comparable forest catchments in winter. Boreal landscapes are sensitive to climate change, and our results suggest that changes in seasonality are likely to cause contrasting responses in different catchments depending on the dominating landscape type.

Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics.

Species conservation in a rapidly changing world requires an improved understanding of how individuals and populations respond to changes in their environment across temporal scales. Increased warming in the Arctic puts this region at particular risk for rapid environmental change, with potentially devastating impacts on resident populations. Here, we make use of a parameterized full life cycle, individual-based energy budget model for wild muskoxen, coupling year-round environmental data with detailed ontogenic metabolic physiology. We show how winter food accessibility, summer food availability, and density dependence drive seasonal dynamics of energy storage and thus life history and population dynamics. Winter forage accessibility defined by snow depth, more than summer forage availability, was the primary determinant of muskox population dynamics through impacts on calf recruitment and longer term carryover effects of maternal investment. Simulations of various seasonal snow depth and plant biomass and quality profiles revealed that timing of and improved/limited winter forage accessibility had marked influence on calf recruitment (±10-80%). Impacts on recruitment were the cumulative result of condition-driven reproductive performance at multiple time points across the reproductive period (ovulation to calf weaning) as a trade-off between survival and reproduction. Seasonal and generational condition effects of snow-rich winters interacted with age structure and density to cause pronounced long-term consequences on population growth and structure, with predicted population recovery times from even moderate disturbances of 10years or more. Our results show how alteration in winter forage accessibility, mediated by snow depth, impacts the dynamics of northern herbivore populations. Further, we present here a mechanistic and state-based model framework to assess future scenarios of environmental change, such as increased or decreased snowfall or plant biomass and quality to impact winter and summer forage availability across the Arctic.

Clinging on to alpine life: Investigating factors driving the uphill range contraction and population decline of a mountain breeding bird.

Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are widely regarded as important drivers of environmental change in alpine habitats. However, due to the difficulties working in high-elevation mountain systems, the impacts of these drivers on alpine breeding species have rarely been investigated. The Eurasian dotterel (Charadrius morinellus) is a migratory wader, which has been the subject of uniquely long-term and spatially widespread monitoring effort in Scotland, where it breeds in alpine areas in dwindling numbers. Here we analyse data sets spanning three decades, to investigate whether key potential drivers of environmental change in Scottish mountains (snow lie, elevated summer temperatures and nitrogen deposition) have contributed to the population decline of dotterel. We also consider the role of rainfall on the species' wintering grounds in North Africa. We found that dotterel declines-in both density and site occupancy of breeding males-primarily occurred on low and intermediate elevation sites. High-elevation sites mostly continued to be occupied, but males occurred at lower densities in years following snow-rich winters, suggesting that high-elevation snow cover displaced dotterel to lower sites. Wintering ground rainfall was positively associated with densities of breeding males two springs later. Dotterel densities were reduced at low and intermediate sites where nitrogen deposition was greatest, but not at high-elevation sites. While climatic factors explained variation in breeding density between years, they did not seem to explain the species' uphill retreat and decline. We cannot rule out the possibility that dotterel have increasingly settled on higher sites previously unavailable due to extensive snow cover, while changes associated with nitrogen deposition may also have rendered lower lying sites less suitable for breeding. Causes of population and range changes in mountain-breeding species are thus liable to be complex, involving multiple anthropogenic drivers of environmental change acting widely across annual and migratory life cycles.

Climatic effects on a cold stenotherm species Lepidurus arcticus (Branchiopoda, Notostraca) on the southern outreach of its distribution range

On the Norwegian mainland, the Arctic tadpole shrimp Lepidurus arcticus is a typically alpine species mainly co-occurring with fish. The Hardangervidda mountain plateau is the main area of the southernmost L. arcticus populations. Here L. arcticus is widely distributed, especially in the central and eastern parts of the plateau. Lepidurus arcticus has a univoltine life cycle emerging from resting eggs at ice break-up and fulfil development during the short mountain summer, before they reproduce and die. The main goal in this study was to investigate the thermal thresholds for L. arcticus. Timing of ice break-up and the proceeding water temperature are hypothesized to constitute the primary drivers of L. arcticus's development and growth. Stomach analyses of brown trout is the most sensitive method for sampling L. arcticus, especially at low densities. Analyses of 4 460 brown trout stomachs revealed that at least 400 degree-days are needed for development and growth from hatching in to adults. It is a significant gradient in climatic conditions on Hardangervidda with a coastal impact in the western part of the plateau with a three - to fourfold winter deposition compared to a dryer inland region in the east. The snow deposits have increased since the 1980s and snow rich winters have been more frequent. An additional increase is projected. This may give lower water temperature and shorter ice-free seasons. Thus, the cold western lakes could be even more hostile habitats for L. arcticus. During the same period, an abrupt increase in spring-summer temperatures was detected. This has improved the conditions for L. arcticus in many lakes. However, as a cold stenotherm species a further increase in temperature may be detrimental. Especially in shallow lakes in the central and eastern parts this may be a problem even without reaching critical levels by inducing life cycle mismatches.

Seasonal streamflow forecasts for Europe – Part I: Hindcast verification with pseudo- and real observations

Abstract. Seasonal predictions of river flow can be exploited among others to optimise hydropower energy generation, navigability of rivers and irrigation management to decrease crop yield losses. This paper is the first of two papers dealing with a physical model-based system built to produce probabilistic seasonal hydrological forecasts, applied here to Europe. This paper presents the development of the system and the evaluation of its skill. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model is forced with bias-corrected output of ECMWF's seasonal forecast system 4. For the assessment of skill, we analysed hindcasts (1981–2010) against a reference run, in which VIC was forced by gridded meteorological observations. The reference run was also used to generate initial hydrological conditions for the hindcasts. The skill in run-off and discharge hindcasts is analysed with monthly temporal resolution, up to 7 months of lead time, for the entire annual cycle. Using the reference run output as pseudo-observations and taking the correlation coefficient as metric, hot spots of significant theoretical skill in discharge and run-off were identified in Fennoscandia (from January to October), the southern part of the Mediterranean (from June to August), Poland, northern Germany, Romania and Bulgaria (mainly from November to January), western France (from December to May) and the eastern side of Great Britain (January to April). Generally, the skill decreases with increasing lead time, except in spring in regions with snow-rich winters. In some areas some skill persists even at the longest lead times (7 months). Theoretical skill was compared to actual skill as determined with real discharge observations from 747 stations. Actual skill is generally substantially less than theoretical skill. This effect is stronger for small basins than for large basins. Qualitatively, the use of different skill metrics (correlation coefficient; relative operating characteristics, ROC, area; and ranked probability skill score, RPSS) leads to broadly similar spatio-temporal patterns of skill, but the level of skill decreases, and the area of skill shrinks, in the following order: correlation coefficient; ROC area below-normal (BN) tercile; ROC area above-normal (AN) tercile; ranked probability skill score; and, finally, ROC near-normal (NN) tercile.

Show Me Your Rump Hair and I Will Tell You What You Ate - The Dietary History of Muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) Revealed by Sequential Stable Isotope Analysis of Guard Hairs.

The nutritional state of animals is tightly linked to the ambient environment, and for northern ungulates the state strongly influences vital population demographics, such as pregnancy rates. Continuously growing tissues, such as hair, can be viewed as dietary records of animals over longer temporal scales. Using sequential data on nitrogen stable isotopes (δ15N) in muskox guard hairs from ten individuals in high arctic Northeast Greenland, we were able to reconstruct the dietary history of muskoxen over approximately 2.5 years with a high temporal resolution of app. 9 days. The dietary chronology included almost three full summer and winter periods. The diet showed strong intra- and inter-annual seasonality, and was significantly linked to changes in local environmental conditions (temperature and snow depth). The summer diets were highly similar across years, reflecting a graminoid-dominated diet. In contrast, winter diets were markedly different between years, a pattern apparently linked to snow conditions. Snow-rich winters had markedly higher δ15N values than snow-poor winters, indicating that muskoxen had limited access to forage, and relied more heavily on their body stores. Due to the close link between body stores and calf production in northern ungulates, the dietary winter signals could eventually serve as an indicator of calf production the following spring. Our study opens the field for further studies and longer chronologies to test such links. The method of sequential stable isotope analysis of guard hairs thus constitutes a promising candidate for population-level monitoring of animals in remote, arctic areas.

Variability of snow line elevation, snow cover area and depletion in the main Slovak basins in winters 2001–2014

Abstract Spatial and temporal variability of snow line (SL) elevation, snow cover area (SCA) and depletion (SCD) in winters 2001–2014 is investigated in ten main Slovak river basins (the Western Carpathians). Daily satellite snow cover maps from MODIS Terra (MOD10A1, V005) and Aqua (MYD10A1, V005) with resolution 500 m are used. The results indicate three groups of basins with similar variability in the SL elevation. The first includes basins with maximum elevations above 1500 m a.s.l. (Poprad, Upper Váh, Hron, Hornád). Winter median SL is equal or close to minimum basin elevation in snow rich winters in these basins. Even in snow poor winters is SL close to the basin mean. Second group consists of mid-altitude basins with maximum elevation around 1000 m a.s.l. (Slaná, Ipeľ, Nitra, Bodrog). Median SL varies between 150 and 550 m a.s.l. in January and February, which represents approximately 40–80% snow coverage. Median SL is near the maximum basin elevation during the snow poor winters. This means that basins are in such winters snow free approximately 50% of days in January and February. The third group includes the Rudava/Myjava and Lower Váh/Danube. These basins have their maximum altitude less than 700 m a.s.l. and only a small part of these basins is covered with snow even during the snow rich winters. The evaluation of SCA shows that snow cover typically starts in December and last to February. In the highest basins (Poprad, Upper Váh), the snow season sometimes tends to start earlier (November) and lasts to March/April. The median of SCA is, however, less than 10% in these months. The median SCA of entire winter season is above 70% in the highest basins (Poprad, Upper Váh, Hron), ranges between 30–60% in the mid-altitude basins (Hornád, Slaná, Ipeľ, Nitra, Bodrog) and is less than 1% in the Myjava/Rudava and Lower Váh/Danube basins. However, there is a considerable variability in seasonal coverage between the years. Our results indicate that there is no significant trend in mean SCA in the period 2001–2014, but periods with larger and smaller SCA exist. Winters in the period 2002–2006 have noticeably larger mean SCA than those in the period 2007–2012. Snow depletion curves (SDC) do not have a simple evolution in most winters. The snowmelt tends to start between early February and the end of March. The snowmelt lasts between 8 and 15 days on average in lowland and high mountain basins, respectively. Interestingly, the variability in SDC between the winters is much larger than between the basins.

Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Decline on Weather and Climate: A Review

The areal extent, concentration and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas have strongly decreased during the recent decades, but cold, snow-rich winters have been common over mid-latitude land areas since 2005. A review is presented on studies addressing the local and remote effects of the sea ice decline on weather and climate. It is evident that the reduction in sea ice cover has increased the heat flux from the ocean to atmosphere in autumn and early winter. This has locally increased air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover and reduced the static stability in the lower troposphere. Several studies based on observations, atmospheric reanalyses, and model experiments suggest that the sea ice decline, together with increased snow cover in Eurasia, favours circulation patterns resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. The suggested large-scale pressure patterns include a high over Eurasia, which favours cold winters in Europe and northeastern Eurasia. A high over the western and a low over the eastern North America have also been suggested, favouring advection of Arctic air masses to North America. Mid-latitude winter weather is, however, affected by several other factors, which generate a large inter-annual variability and often mask the effects of sea ice decline. In addition, the small sample of years with a large sea ice loss makes it difficult to distinguish the effects directly attributable to sea ice conditions. Several studies suggest that, with advancing global warming, cold winters in mid-latitude continents will no longer be common during the second half of the twenty-first century. Recent studies have also suggested causal links between the sea ice decline and summer precipitation in Europe, the Mediterranean, and East Asia.

New evidence of Holocene atmospheric circulation dynamics based on lake sediments from southern Sweden: a link to the Siberian High

Oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotope records of calcitic carbonate components (Chara sp. algal encrustations and Bithynia tentaculata gastropod opercula) from a lake-sediment succession on the Baltic Sea island of Gotland, south-eastern Sweden, have been obtained to investigate regional climate dynamics during the Holocene. The hydrological sensitivity of the small lake, particularly in terms of spring snowmelt contribution to the local water budget, provides a means of tracing past changes in the influence of snow-bearing easterly winds across the Baltic Sea Proper, which signifies the wintertime strength of the Siberian High. Repeated episodic depletions in 18O at the centennial scale correlate with events of increased potassium concentration in the GISP2 ice-core record from Greenland, which indicates a coupling to large-scale fluctuations in atmospheric circulation patterns. A corresponding correlation with simultaneous depletions in 13C suggests repeated responses of the local lake hydrology to snow-rich winters through decreasing water residence time, perhaps augmented by methanogenesis due to prolonged ice-cover seasons under the influence of an expanding Siberian High. Frequency analysis of the isotopic records reveals well-defined fluctuations at quasi-500-520-, 670-, 830- and 1430-yr periodicities, and a gradually stronger impact of Polar air outbreaks across the southern Baltic Sea region with time after ca 6000 cal. BP.

Climate change increases frequency of shallow spring landslides in the French Alps

Research Article| May 01, 2013 Climate change increases frequency of shallow spring landslides in the French Alps Jérôme Lopez Saez; Jérôme Lopez Saez 1Institut National de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies pour l’Environnement et l’Agriculture, UR EMGR, 38402 St-Martin-d’Hères cedex, France Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Christophe Corona; Christophe Corona 2Laboratory of Dendrogeomorphology, Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Berne, 3012 Bern, Switzerland3CNRS UMR6042 Geolab, Clermont-Ferrand cedex, France Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Markus Stoffel; Markus Stoffel 2Laboratory of Dendrogeomorphology, Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Berne, 3012 Bern, Switzerland4Climatic Change and Climate Impacts, Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 1227 Carouge-Geneva, Switzerland Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Frédéric Berger Frédéric Berger 1Institut National de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies pour l’Environnement et l’Agriculture, UR EMGR, 38402 St-Martin-d’Hères cedex, France Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Geology (2013) 41 (5): 619–622. https://doi.org/10.1130/G34098.1 Article history received: 04 Oct 2012 rev-recd: 20 Dec 2012 accepted: 23 Dec 2012 first online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Jérôme Lopez Saez, Christophe Corona, Markus Stoffel, Frédéric Berger; Climate change increases frequency of shallow spring landslides in the French Alps. Geology 2013;; 41 (5): 619–622. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G34098.1 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyGeology Search Advanced Search Abstract In this contribution, past process activity is reconstructed on seven landslide bodies of the Riou Bourdoux catchment (southeastern French Alps). Based on an unusually dense data set of 3036 tree-ring series extracted from 759 conifers, we provide evidence for 61 landslide reactivations since A.D. 1898. Based on logistic regressions and threshold analyses of monthly rainfall data and temperature anomalies, we determine that the combination of snow-rich winters and positive temperature anomalies in spring (enhanced snowmelt) seems to have driven landslide reactivations in the past. Since the early 1990s, however, landslide reactivations clearly have been on the rise and thereby exhibit excessive and unprecedented rates of activity (12.5 events per 10 yr) at the scale of the Riou Bourdoux catchment. From the data, evidence exists for a shift from snowmelt-induced landslides (controlled by winter precipitation) to reactivations controlled by spring temperatures. Therefore, this contribution also adds evidence to the hypothesis that climate change (and related warmer springs) could further enhance landslide activity in the course of the 21st century. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.

Modeling Snow–Canopy Processes on an Idealized Mountain

Abstract Snow interception in a coniferous forest canopy is an important hydrological feature, producing complex mass and energy exchanges with the surrounding atmosphere and the snowpack below. Subcanopy snowpack accumulation and ablation depends on the effects of canopy architecture on meteorological conditions and on interception storage by stems, branches, and needles. Mountain forests are primarily composed of evergreen conifer species that retain their needles throughout the year and hence intercept snow efficiently during winter. Canopy-intercepted snow can melt, fall to the ground, and/or sublimate into the air masses above and within the canopy. To improve the understanding of snow–canopy interception processes and the associated influences on the snowpack below, a series of model experiments using a detailed, physically based snow–canopy and snowpack evolution model [Alpine Multiscale Numerical Distributed Simulation Engine (AMUNDSEN)] driven with observed meteorological forcing was conducted. A cone-shaped idealized mountain covered with a geometrically regular pattern of coniferous forest stands and clearings was constructed. The model was applied for three winter seasons with different snowfall intensities and distributions. Results show the effects of snow–canopy processes and interactions on the pattern of ground snow cover, its duration, and the amount of meltwater release, in addition to showing under what conditions the protective effect of a forest canopy overbalances the reduced accumulation of snow on the ground. The simulations show considerable amounts of canopy-intercepted snowfall can sublimate, leading to reduced snow accumulation beneath the forest canopy. In addition, the canopy produces a shadowing effect beneath the trees that leads to reduced radiative energy reaching the ground, reduced below-canopy snowmelt rates, and increased snow-cover duration relative to nonforested areas. During snow-rich winters, the shadowing effect of the canopy dominates and snow lasts longer inside the forest than in the open, but during winters with little snow, snow sublimation losses dominate and snow lasts longer in the open areas than inside the forest. Because of the strong solar radiation influence on snowmelt rates, the details of these relationships vary for northern and southern radiation exposures and time of year. In early and high winter, the radiation protection effect of shadowing by the canopy is small. If little snow is available, an intermittent melt out of the snow cover inside the forest can occur. In late winter and spring, the shadowing effect becomes more efficient and snowmelt is delayed relative to nonforested areas.

21st Century changes in snow climate in Northern Europe: a high-resolution view from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

Changes in snow amount in northern Europe are analysed from 11 regional model simulations of 21st century climate under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. These high-resolution models collectively indicate a future decrease in the water equivalent of the snow pack (SWE). Although winter precipitation increases, this is insufficient to compensate for the increased fraction of liquid precipitation and increased snowmelt caused by higher temperatures. The multi-model mean results suggest a slight increase in March mean SWE only locally in mountains of northern Sweden, and even there, snow is reduced earlier in winter and later in spring. The nature of the changes remains the same throughout the 21st century, but their magnitude increases with time as the greenhouse gas forcing grows larger. The geographical patterns of the change support the physically intuitive view that snow is most vulnerable to warming in areas with relatively mild winter climate. A similar relationship emerges when comparing the 11 simulations with each other: the ratio between the relative SWE decrease and winter mean temperature change is larger (smaller) for simulations with higher (lower) late 20th century winter temperatures. Despite the decrease in long-term mean SWE, individual snow-rich winters do occur in the simulations, but they become increasingly uncommon towards the end of the 21st century.

Climate change drives microevolution in a wild bird

To ensure long-term persistence, organisms must adapt to climate change, but an evolutionary response to a quantified selection pressure driven by climate change has not been empirically demonstrated in a wild population. Here, we show that pheomelanin-based plumage colouration in tawny owls is a highly heritable trait, consistent with a simple Mendelian pattern of brown (dark) dominance over grey (pale). We show that strong viability selection against the brown morph occurs, but only under snow-rich winters. As winter conditions became milder in the last decades, selection against the brown morph diminished. Concurrent with this reduced selection, the frequency of brown morphs increased rapidly in our study population during the last 28 years and nationwide during the last 48 years. Hence, we show the first evidence that recent climate change alters natural selection in a wild population leading to a microevolutionary response, which demonstrates the ability of wild populations to evolve in response to climate change.

Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) and climate change: Importance of winter forage

As a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, climate change is predicted to be particularly pronounced, although regionally variable, in the vast arctic, sub-arctic and alpine tundra areas of the northern hemisphere. Here, we review winter foraging conditions for reindeer and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) living in these areas, and consider diet, forage quality and distribution, accessibility due to snow variation, and effects of snow condition on reindeer and caribou populations. Finally, we hypothesise how global warming may affect wild mountain reindeer herds in South Norway. Energy-rich lichens often dominate reindeer and caribou diets. The animals also prefer lichens, and their productivity has been shown to be higher on lichen-rich than on lichen-poor ranges. Nevertheless, this energy source appears to be neither sufficient as winter diet for reindeer or caribou (at least for pregnant females) nor necessary. Some reindeer and caribou populations seem to be better adapted to a non-lichen winter diet, e.g. by a larger alimentary tract. Shrubs appear to be the most common alternative winter forage, while some grasses appear to represent a good, nutritionally-balanced winter diet. Reindeer/caribou make good use of a wide variety of plants in winter, including dead and dry parts that are digested more than expected based on their fibre content. The diversity of winter forage is probably important for the mineral content of the diet. A lichen-dominated winter diet may be deficient in essential dietary elements, e.g. minerals. Sodium in particular may be marginal in inland winter ranges. Our review indicates that most Rangifer populations with lichen-dominated winter diets are either periodically or continuously heavily harvested by humans or predators. However, when population size is mainly limited by food, accessible lichen resources are often depleted. Plant studies simulating climatic change indicate that a warmer, wetter climate may cause an altitudinal upward shift in the production of mat-forming lichens in alpine, sub-arctic regions. This is due to an increased potential for lichen growth at high altitudes, combined with increased competition from taller-growing vascular plants at lower altitudes, where the biomass of Betula nana in particular will increase. Matforming lichens dominant on dry, windblown ridges are easily overgrazed at high reindeer densities. This has longterm effects due to lichens’ slow regeneration rate, but may also reduce competition from vascular plants in a long time perspective. Fires may act in a similar way in some forested areas. Accessibility of winter forage depends on plant biomass, snow depth and hardness; ice crusts or exceptionally deep snow may result in starvation and increased animal mortality. Calf recruitment appears to be low and/or highly variable where winter ranges are overgrazed and hard or deep snow is common. Population decline in several Rangifer tarandus spp. has been associated with snow-rich winters. Effects tend to be delayed and cumulative, particularly on calves. This is mainly ascribed to feeding conditions for young animals which later affect age at maturation. Global warming may increase the frequency of deep or hard snow on reindeer ranges in Norway, due to increased precipitation and more frequent mild periods in winter. We hypothesise that potential benefits from increased plant productivity due to global warming will be counteracted by shifts in the distribution of preferred lichen forage, reduction of the areas of suitable winter ranges, and generally reduced forage accessibility in winter.