Smooth Transition Error Correction Model Research Articles

Spot–Futures Price Adjustments in the Nikkei 225: Linear or Smooth Transition? Financial Centre Leadership or Home Bias?

This paper studies price discovery in Nikkei 225 markets through the nonlinear smooth transition price adjustments between spot and future prices and across all three futures markets. We test for smooth transition nonlinearity and employ an exponential smooth transition error correction model (ESTECM) with exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH), allowing for the effects of transaction costs, heterogeneity, and asymmetry in Nikkei price adjustments. We show that the ESTECM-EGARCH is the appropriate model as it offers new insights into Nikkei price dynamics and information transmission across international markets. For spot–futures price dynamics, we find that futures led spot prices before the crisis, but spot prices led afterwards. This can be explained by the lower level of heterogeneity in the underlying spot transaction costs after the crisis. For cross-border futures prices, the foreign exchanges (Chicago and Singapore) lead in price discovery, which can be attributed to their roles as global information centres and their flexible trading conditions, such as a more heterogeneous structure of transaction costs. The foreign leadership is robust to the use of linear or nonlinear models, the time differences between Chicago and the other markets, and the long-run liquidity conditions of the Nikkei futures markets, and strongly supports the international centre hypothesis.

Exploring the dynamic relationship between Bitcoin and commodities: New insights through STECM model

This paper investigates the dynamic relationships between Bitcoin, Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Coal in the short- and long-run over the period 2011–2018. For this end, we use a Smooth Transition Error Correction Model (STECM) to accommodate the presence of some stylized facts (the nonlinearity and asymmetry) in the adjustment process of Bitcoin towards their long-run equilibrium. We show significant long-run equilibrium links for Bitcoin, which seems to be asymmetric and nonlinear. Gold and Oil Brent Crude logarithmic prices potentially and significantly influence the Bitcoin logarithmic prices. Our empirical results also indicate that the current Bitcoin logarithmic prices have a significant and positive impact on their lagged values for both regimes, implying some symmetric memory effects over time. Such analysis of the interlinkages between different assets could be interesting from investment and academic perspectives.

Non-linear adjustment of the Bitcoin–US dollar exchange rate

This paper analyses the relationship between BitCoin price and social media. The aim of the study was to investigate the adjustment process of the Bitcoin/dollar exchange rate towards its long-run equilibrium value in a nonlinear panel framework. A smooth transition error correction model is estimated to empirically validate the adjustment of the Bitcoin/dollar exchange rate in relation to its fundamental value. Results depict the presence of a nonlinear adjustment mechanism that reduces the Bitcoin/dollar rate to a partially stable long-term situation. Further, we find empirical evidence that the social media is an effective tool in today’s Bitcoin/dollar exchange rate process.

부드러운 국면전환 오차수정모형(ST-ECM)을 이용한 우리나라 취업자수와 GDP의 비선형 관계 분석

경제정책의 성과가 ‘일자리 창출’을 기준으로 평가되는 경향이 짙어지면서, 취업자수 지표에 대한 관심이 커졌다. 일반적으로 취업자수는 경기변동에 후행한다는 사실이 잘 알려져 있으며, 기존 연구들에서는 주로 두 변수 사이의 선형관계를 분석하는 데 초점을 맞추어 왔다. 본고에서는 우리나라 취업자수 증가율과 GDP성장률 사이에 비선형의 관계가 있는지 점검하였다. 이를 위해 취업자수 증가율을 GDP성장률의 움직임으로 설명하는 회귀분석 모형에 비선형성을 추가하였다. ‘부드러운 국면전환 오차수정모형(ST-ECM)’을 이용한 분석결과, 취업자수 증가율과 GDP성장률의 관계는 장기적으로 공적분 관계에 있으며, 단기적으로는 두 변수의 동학에 비선형성이 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 즉, GDP성장률이 취업자수 증가율에 미치는 영향이 경기 확장국면에 비해 수축국면에서 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 다만, 취업자수에 대한 조건부 예측 결과, 비선형모형이 선형모형에 비해 예측력이 뛰어나다는 일관된 증거는 발견하지 못했다.

Rezerv Opsiyonu Mekanizması ve Kredi İlişkisi

Küresel kriz sonrası gelişmiş ülkelerce tercih edilen genişletici para politikası uygulamaları, risk iştahının yükselmesiyle birlikte finansal piyasalarda ani fon hareketlerinin yaşanmasına neden olmuştur. Bu gelişmeler, fiyat istikrarını sağlama temel hedefi ile hareket eden merkez bankalarını yeni politika arayışlarına yönlendirmiştir. Geleneksel olmayan para politikası araçları çerçevesinde Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası tarafından geliştirilen araçlardan biri de rezerv opsiyonu mekanizmasıdır. Bu çalışmada 2011: 09 – 2019: 02 dönemine ilişkin Türkiye’de rezerv opsiyonu mekanizması kullanımı ile işletme ve tüketici kredileri arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmiştir. Hepsağ (2019)’ın geliştirdiği doğrusal olmayan asimetrik yumuşak geçişli hata düzeltme modeline göre değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli eşbütünleşik ilişkiye ulaşılmıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Rezerv Opsiyonu Mekanizması, Tüketici Kredileri, İşletme Kredileri JEL Sınıflandırması: E4, E5

Computing stock price comovements with a three-regime panel smooth transition error correction model

This paper studies the hypothesis of stock price comovements toward the US market for a large sample of developed and emerging stock markets (G6, BRICS, and MENA) over the periods of February 1970–June 2012, January 1995–June 2012, and June 2005–June 2012. To consider cross-market heterogeneity and asymmetrical time-variation in stock market integration, we propose an innovative threshold panel cointegration specification based on a panel smooth transitions error correction model. This specification enables us to identify different integration regimes that transit smoothly, which further reproduces the effects of market frictions and behavioral heterogeneity among the markets under consideration. Accordingly, we distinguish between efficient and inefficient market states. Further, we show that, while MENA and BRICS are segmented with the US market, a nonlinear mean-reversion of stock prices is observed for the G6 markets, suggesting evidence of heterogeneous threshold market integration. This suggests global diversification benefits from a US-MENA portfolio, while only per-regime investment opportunities appear for US-G6 and US-BRICS portfolios.

Financial linkages between US sector credit default swaps markets

We investigate the dynamic relationships between the US five-year financial CDS sector index spreads for the banking, financial services and insurance sectors in the short- and long-run over the recent period which is marked by the onset of the global financial crisis. For this purpose, we implement a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model (STECM) to accommodate the presence of nonlinearities and asymmetry in the adjustment process of the CDS variables toward their long-run equilibrium. Our findings provide evidence of significant long-run equilibrium links for two out of the three CDS indices, which are found to be typically asymmetric and nonlinear. These findings are more potent and more strongly policy oriented when the control variables are introduced into an extended STECM.

Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities

We investigate the relationship between employment and GDP in the United States. We disentangle trend and cyclical employment components by estimating a non-linear smooth transition error-correction model that simultaneously accounts for long-term relationships between growth and employment and short-run instability over the business cycle. Based on out-of-sample conditional forecasts, we conclude that, since the end of the 2008–09 recession, US employment is on average around 1% below the level implied by the long run output–employment relationship, meaning that about 1.2million of the trend employment loss cannot be attributed to the identified cyclical factors.

Information technology sector and equity markets: an empirical investigation

The aim of this article is to study linkages between equity and information technology sector prices. We thus investigate the price adjustment dynamics of the Information Technology (IT) sector in response to the 2007–2009 worldwide market shock for two representative developed countries (France and the USA). Using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology and different econometric specifications of a smooth transition Error-Correction Model (ECM), we find significant price reactions from the USA and French IT sectors to changes in the global capital markets over the period between 11 February 2005 and 9 July 2009. The IT price response is however stronger for the USA than for France. The empirical results suggest that the IT price convergence process towards equilibrium is typically asymmetric and nonlinearly mean-reverting for the USA.

Revisiting the empirics of inflation in China: A smooth transition error correction approach

Using the same data as Chow and Wang (2010) [Chow, Gregory C., Wang, Peng, 2010. The empirics of inflation in China. Economics Letters 109, 28–30], as well as a smooth transition regression model, this paper reconsiders the empirics of inflation in China. The estimated smooth transition error correction model indicates the significant regime-switching behavior of inflation in China, in contrast to the results derived with Chow and Wang’s model of constant parameters.

How Smooth Is Price Discovery? Evidence from Cross-listed Stock Trading

The adjustment to parity can be nonlinear for a cross-listed pair: Convergence may be quicker when the price deviation is sufficiently profitable. We propose a threshold error correction model (ECM) to gauge the market-respective information shares of Canadian listings traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Since dynamics may alternatively be gradual, we further generalize the threshold framework to a smooth transition ECM. First, the TSX and the NYSE appear to have integrated over time. Second, parity-convergence accelerates upon discounts on the cross-listings on the NYSE. Third, we find a larger feedback from the NYSE if the price gap exceeds the threshold (required arbitrage return). Fourth, informed traders tend to cluster on the NYSE upon discounts on the cross-listings. Fifth, the information share and threshold are affected by the relative degree of private information, market friction and liquidity measures, and firm-level characteristics.

Testing for co-integration and nonlinear adjustment in a smooth transition error correction model

This article introduces a testing procedure for cointegration and nonlinear adjustment in a smooth transition vector error correction model. To overcome the unidentified parameters problem under the null of no-cointegration, the Wald statistic is optimized over the unidentified parameter space. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is shown to be non-standard but nuisance parameter-free and hence critical values are obtained by simulations, Simulations show that the proposed test outperforms the alternatives in small sample sizes both in terms of size and power. Application to the exchange rate-monetary fundamentals relationship show that the proposed test works considerably well. This article also finds that nonlinear adjustment dynamics are symmetric for some currencies and therefore the speed of adjustment depends on the size of the deviations and is asymmetric for others, hence, the adjustment dynamics depend not only on the size but also on the sign of the deviations.

Arbitrage costs and nonlinear adjustment in the G7 stock markets

This article aims to study stock price adjustments towards fundamentals due to the existence of arbitrage costs defined as the sum of transaction costs and a risky arbitrage premium associated with the uncertainty characterizing the fundamentals. Accordingly, it is shown that a two regime Smooth Transition Error Correction Model (STECM) is appropriate to reproduce the dynamics of stock price deviations from fundamentals in the G7 countries during the period 1969 to 2005. This model takes into account the interdependences or contagion effects between stock markets. Deviations appear to follow a quasi random walk in the central regime when prices are near fundamentals (i.e. when arbitrage costs are greater than expected arbitrage profits, the mean reversion mechanism is inactive), while they approach a white noise in the outer regimes (i.e. when arbitrage costs are lower than expected arbitrage profits, the mean reversion is active). Interestingly, as expected when arbitrage costs are heterogeneous, the estimated STECM shows that stock price adjustments are smooth and that the convergence speed depends on the size of the deviation. Finally, using two appropriate indicators proposed by Peel and Taylor (2000), both the magnitudes of under and overvaluation of stock price and the adjustment speed are calculated per date in the G7 countries. These indicators show that the dynamics of stock price adjustment are strongly dependent on both the date and the country under consideration.

Nonlinear adjustment of short-term deviations impacts on the US real estate market

This study examines whether nonlinear adjustment of short-term deviations impacts US real estate market returns by applying an exponential smooth transition threshold error-correction model with Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (ESTECM-GARCH). Empirical results demonstrate that the ESTECM-GARCH captures the dynamics of returns more effectively than the Error-Correction Model (ECM) and Exponential Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model (ESTECM). Consequently, the nonlinear behaviour of returns is driven by momentum noise traders and heterogeneous arbitrageurs in Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) markets.

Nonlinear short-run adjustments in US stock market returns

Using the considerably powerful nonparametric cointegration tests proposed by Bierens (1997, 2004), we do not find any evidence indicative of the existence of rational bubbles in the US stock market during the long period of 1871 to 2002. In addition, with the application of a logistic smooth transition error-correction model designed to detect the nonlinear short-run adjustments to the long-run equilibrium, we also obtain substantial empirical evidence in favour of the so-called noise trader models where arbitrageurs are reluctant to immediately engage in trading when stock returns deviate insufficiently from their fundamental value.

Non‐Linear Error Correction: Evidence for UK Interest Rates

Recent empirical finance research has suggested the potential for series to exhibit non‐linear adjustment to equilibrium. This paper examines a variety of such models and compares their performance with the linear alternative. Using short‐ and long‐term UK interest rates we report evidence that a logistic smooth transition error‐correction model is best able to characterize the data and to provide superior out‐of‐sample forecasts over both linear and non‐linear alternatives. This model suggests that market dynamics differ depending on whether the deviations from long‐run equilibrium are above or below the threshold value. Further, the logistic smooth transition model indicates that agents’ actions imply quicker reversion to equilibrium when the long rate exceeds the short rate, and supports a central bank inflation targeting interpretation of the non‐linearity.

Testing For Government Intertemporal Solvency: A Smooth Transition Error Correction Model Approach

Applied macroeconomists have tested for the government intertemporal solvency condition by either testing for linear stationarity in the total government deficit series or testing for linear cointegration between total government spending and total tax revenues. A number of authors have focused, in particular, on structural breaks in the government deficit process. In this paper, we use a smooth transition error correction model to test and estimate a shift in the adjustment toward a linear cointegration relationship between the government spending to output ratio and the total tax revenues to output ratio. Estimation results show that government authorities react only to large (in absolute value) changes in the government spending to output ratio. Residual diagnostic tests are provided and they show that the model is not misspecified.