Abstract Performing Health Impact Assessment of tobacco policies requires to have insights into how smokers will react to policy measures such as price increases. In the Netherlands, a series of 3 substantial price increases has been implemented in 2020 (10% increase), 2023 (10% increase) and 2024 (24% increase). We performed three consecutive studies comparing the ex-ante stated preferences about behavioural response to actual and hypothetical future price increases, and compared these stated preferences with actual behaviour changes 6 months after the increase in excise tax. Two of these possible behavioural reactions actually will impact smoking prevalence or smoking intensity, e.g. stopping altogether and decreasing the number of cigarettes smoked. Other behavioural responses are less favourable and will not impact health, such as buying more and cheaper tobacco abroad and smoking less expensive brands or transferring from cigarettes to roll-your-own or e-cigarettes. For the price increases of 2020 and 2023, we have observed a substantial number of about 10% of smokers quitting successfully and about one third attempting to quit smoking. (Attempting to) quit smoking was much more prevalent among those with a more pronounced intention to stop smoking at the ex-ante measurements. At the same time, cross-border shopping increased significantly as well, with a 10 percent-point growth in the absolute amount of all tobacco consumed originating from abroad following the 10 percent price increase of April 2023. This big increase in cross-border shopping appeared to be independent of distance to the border. We conclude that every significant price increase stimulates smokers to consider to stop smoking. However, unilateral price increases in one country will eventually also stimulate smokers to buy cross-border. Behavioural data as presented should inform HIA to make them more realistic with regard to actual behaviour changes and health impacts of smoking policies.
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