Slow-onset Disasters Research Articles

Exposure to Multiple Natural Disasters and Externalising and Internalising Behavior: A Longitudinal Study of Adolescents

PurposeAs natural disasters become more frequent and more severe, there is a corresponding need to understand their relationship with child and adolescent mental health, and in particular, to understand exposure to multiple natural disasters. This study assesses the relationship between exposure to both single and multiple disasters and adolescent internalising and externalising behavior. MethodsThe study used five waves of a nationally representative longitudinal Australian dataset. Exposure to sudden-onset (fires, floods, storms) and slow-onset (drought) disasters was collected across five waves. Adolescent internalising and externalising behavior collected in the final three waves using the self-reported Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Random effects regressions assessed sudden- and slow-onset disasters and multiple disaster exposure, controlling for geographic and socioeconomic variables. ResultsExposure to multiple disasters was associated with adverse adolescent outcomes. Two or more sudden- and slow-onset disaster exposures in the last 12 months was related to more conduct problems. Exposure to multiple sudden-onset disasters in the current and previous waves was related to increased problems with peers. A single exposure to either sudden- or slow-onset disasters was not associated with Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire outcomes. DiscussionThe study findings suggest that multiple exposure to disasters has a negative association with adolescent wellbeing. These findings suggest that, rather than adapting to disasters, youth exposed to multiple disasters suffer more than their peers, including peers exposed to a single disaster.

Farmers Adaptation Strategies to Adverse Impacts of Drought on Agriculture of the Central Barind Tract of Bangladesh: An Empirical Study

Drought is a reoccurring phenomenon which is considered as one of the topmost slow-onset disasters in the central Barind Tract of northwestern Bangladesh. Due to the consequences of drought, agriculture of this area is highly impacted as well as the farmers fall in multidimensional livelihoods disruption. The objective of the paper is to investigate the existing adaptive measures practicing by farmers to combat adverse impacts of agricultural drought in two representative drought-prone locations of Rajshahi District of Bangladesh. The present study is mainly based on semi-structured household questionnaire survey. Eventually, the survey was conducted in 2019 among 303 households out of 1421 by using Kothari (2004) sampling formula considering 95% significance level and samples are determined through simple random sampling. Both descriptive and inferential statistics are used to analyze the adoption options of the cultivators of the study areas from geographical perspectives. It is found that most of the farmers adopted several measures rely on their traditional knowledge and experiences, participation in community trainings as well as receiving the facilities and support from different GOs and NGOs. Farmers are cultivating drought tolerant crop varieties, adopting rainwater harvesting, intercropping with rice, temporally changing occupation, using fertilizer and composting to accelerate crop production rate, changing irrigation system, participating in agro-training for coping with modern technologies, seeking to draw the compensation from GOs and microcredit of NGOs etc. to minimize drought impacts. However, the findings of present study are expected to provide useful guidelines to policy makers for facilitating farmers in sustaining their livelihoods against adverse impacts of agricultural drought in Barind Tract of Bangladesh.

Mapping the Multi-Vulnerabilities of Outdoor Places to Enhance the Resilience of Historic Urban Districts: The Case of the Apulian Region Exposed to Slow and Rapid-Onset Disasters

Recent critical events brought attention to the increasing exposure of urban environments to both slow and rapid onset disasters, which arise from both anthropogenic and natural causes. These events have particularly severe effects on historic centres, which are characterized by high levels of vulnerability and valuable assets exposed to risk. To minimize the impact on tangible and intangible cultural heritage values, especially in outdoor public areas such as squares and streets, it is crucial to establish coherent mitigative and adaptive solutions for different types of hazards. This research presents a methodology aimed at defining levels of multi-vulnerabilities in historic districts in the Apulia Region (Italy), considering the recurrent hazards to which the latter is prone. It uses a multi-step process based on structured and non-structured methodologies and tools for single risks, examined in combination, to determine the main properties characterizing the vulnerability assessment. The dataset was analyzed in a GIS environment to evaluate the selected Apulian case study (Molfetta) in Multi-Asynchronous Hazard scenarios, showing the compounded levels of criticalities for open areas and streets. This information is intended to support authority and emergency managers in identifying priority interventions and increasing the resilience of the outdoor public places.

An approach to the background, methods and challenges of research in disasters

Disasters are phenomena of global distribution and increasing impact, with a social and interdisciplinary nature and that often require the use of quantitative and qualitative methods to be investigated. The purpose of this paper is to explore the historical background of disaster research, the current use of epidemiological methods in disasters, as well as the difficulties and future challenges of research in this field. This study considers bibliographic elements and specific non-bibliographic events that have determined the historical evolution of disaster research, as well as its conceptual framework, particularly in relation to the approaches from which the research has been carried out and the range of methods epidemiological used. This is not a standard review. Current disaster research is developed for a wide variety of purposes, including the identification and characterization of populations exposed or at risk of disaster; the study and establishment of the exposure model for each specific type of disaster; the estimation of the incidence and prevalence of the different types of disaster and the quantification of the impacts in the short, medium and long term. Research is also carried out in the field of disasters to assess needs, plan relevant and efficient types of aid; model and predict the occurrence and to design adequate and efficient prevention, preparedness, mitigation and rehabilitation strategies. Even so, the predominant research on disasters is still very much focused on certain partial aspects of the phenomenon such as the response to the disaster and directed towards specific types of disasters, especially those of rapid onset. There is still little multidisciplinary and collaborative research among researchers from the different areas of interest that constitute the disaster phenomenon. Important challenges persist in disaster research, including the design of a common conceptual framework that allows multidisciplinary research in disasters, the development of specific methods to investigate complex emergencies (complex humanitarian emergencies) or disasters related to climate change; the development of a specific approach to investigate slow-onset disasters and their social, political and cultural factors, as well as research to develop feasible and cost-efficient prevention and response strategies. Solving these challenges will depend to a large extent to which the investigative capacity of managers and heads of organizations and field personnel working in disasters is improved.

A Robust Stochastic Programming Model for the Well Location Problem: The Case of The Brazilian Northeast Region

Slow-onset disasters, such as drought, are usually more destructive in the long term since they affect the productive capacity of a community, thereby preventing it from recovering using its resources. This requires the leaders and planners of drought areas to establish the best strategies for effective drought management. In this direction, the present work develops a robust stochastic programming approach for the problem of locating artesian wells for the relief of drought-affected populations under uncertainty. Our model considers different demand scenarios and proposes a novel perspective which considers both social and hydrogeological aspects for the location choice, aiming to maximize the affected area’s satisfaction through its prioritization using a composite drought risk index as well as to maximize the probability of success in water prospecting. We present a case study of our robust stochastic optimization approach for the Brazilian Semiarid Region using demand points from the database of Operação Carro-Pipa. Our findings show that a robust solution has a better expected value for the objective function considering all scenarios, so it can help decision makers to plan facility location and demand allocation under demand uncertainty, pointing out the best solution according to their degree of risk aversion.

An approach to the background, methods and challenges of research in disasters

Disasters are phenomena of global distribution and increasing impact, with a social and interdisciplinary nature and that often require the use of quantitative and qualitative methods to be investigated. The purpose of this paper is to review the historical background of disaster research, the current use of epidemiological methods in disasters, as well as the difficulties and future challenges of research in this field. This study is a review of bibliographic elements and specific non-bibliographic events that have determined the historical evolution of disaster research, as well as its conceptual framework, particularly in relation to the approaches from which the research has been carried out and the range of methods epidemiological used. Current disaster research is developed for a wide variety of purposes, including the identification and characterization of populations exposed or at risk of disaster; the study and establishment of the exposure model for each specific type of disaster; the estimation of the incidence and prevalence of the different types of disaster and the quantification of the impacts in the short, medium and long term. Research is also carried out in the field of disasters to assess needs, plan relevant and efficient types of aid; model and predict the occurrence and to design adequate and efficient prevention, preparedness, mitigation and rehabilitation strategies. Even so, the predominant research on disasters is still very much focused on certain partial aspects of the phenomenon such as the response to the disaster and directed towards specific types of disasters, especially those of rapid onset. There is still little multidisciplinary and collaborative research among researchers from the different areas of interest that constitute the disaster phenomenon. Important challenges persist in disaster research, including the design of a common conceptual framework that allows multidisciplinary research in disasters, the development of specific methods to investigate complex emergencies (complex humanitarian emergencies) or disasters related to climate change; the development of a specific approach to investigate slow-onset disasters and their social, political and cultural factors, as well as research to develop feasible and cost-efficient prevention and response strategies. Solving these challenges will depend to a large extent to which the investigative capacity of managers and heads of organizations and field personnel working in disasters is improved.

The simulation of urban development with the consideration of ground deformation threats in Sidoarjo Regency, East Java Province of Indonesia

Sidoarjo plays a role as buffer zone for the expanding urban growth of Surabaya City, which results in the rapid development of built areas. After the Lapindo mudflow in 2006, subsidence occurred in the surrounding area of Porong District. Land subsidence is a slow-onset disaster that impact people's lives due to vertical displacement. Urban development in areas that are geologically prone to subsidence may have long-term impacts, both on settlements and infrastructure. Therefore, it is necessary to acknowledge its ground deformation trait and how it interacts with urban spatial development. The characteristics of ground deformation were identified utilizing Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) processing with Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) method which resulted in 10 levels of ground deformations. The map of ground deformation level was overlaid with the map of future land use of 2041 which was generated from Cellular Automata (CA) based land use simulation. Areas with alarming ground deformation level, that are “at-risk”, are found around the Lapindo area, and extends to Sidoarjo's north side. Meanwhile, the built area is estimated to grow around the major roads, in the central side from north to south, and in the middle-south part of Sidoarjo. The interaction between urban development and ground deformation provides an overview of areas that may encounter ground deformation threats, such as land subsidence and uplift movement, in the future. The results of this study can be used for spatial planning decisions with consideration of ground deformation threats by directing urban development to the “safe” areas.

Determining behavioural-based risk to SLODs of urban public open spaces: Key performance indicators definition and application on established built environment typological scenarios

A behavioural-based approach can be used to assess how users’ reactions to surrounding environmental conditions can alter the urban Built Environment (BE) risk to Slow Onset Disasters (SLODs). Public Open Spaces (POSs) in the BE are relevant scenarios, due to micro-climate-related stress, users’ vulnerabilities (e.g., age, health frailty) and exposure time. Simulation methods can support behavioural-based risk-assessment, but results are generally site-specific. Performing analysis on BE Typologies (BETs) can improve robustness, since BETs represent archetypes from real-world scenarios. This work adopts a behavioural-based approach to evaluate time-dependant users’ risks of POSs in different BETs due to SLODs-related stress (i.e., heat, air pollution). UTCI and AQI values are mapped within each BET. Users’ distributions are then calculated depending on thermal acceptability correlations. Key Performance Indicators are developed associating users’ distribution to SLODs effects on health (i.e., sweat rate, water loss; health affection rate probability). The approach is applied to Italian BETs, under one relevant climate, rating their heat and air pollution risks. Results suggest critical conditions for toddlers. In detail, about 2-hour high heat exposure could result in dehydration, while 1-hour exposure to low NO2 concentration could result in +1% mortality probability. This approach could potentially support decision-makers on BE risk-assessment.

How Do Left-Behind Families Adapt to the Salinity-Induced Male Out-Migration Context? A Case Study of Shyamnagar Sub-District in Coastal Bangladesh

The knowledge regarding male out-migration due to climate change and large-scale, rapid-onset disasters and their impacts on the left-behind families is well known. However, research on the adaptation strategies for the families left behind due to disaster-induced male-out seasonal migration is rarely carried out. Thus, this study attempts to explore the coping and adaptation strategies adopted by the left-behind families in the salinity-induced male out-migration context. Analyzing the factors affecting the adaptation behaviors is also a major objective of this study. The study was carried out in Shyamnagar sub-district of coastal Bangladesh, where male-out seasonal migration for both rapid and slow-onset disasters is evidenced. The data regarding the adaptation measures were explored through different participatory rural appraisal techniques. Primary data were collected from 213 women from the left-behind families through a semi-structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics as well as multiple linear regression for analyzing the factors affecting adaptation behaviors were applied. The results revealed that the left-behind families, especially the women and children, adopted a total of 35 coping and adaptation strategies in five different aspects, such as economic adaptation, social adaptation measures, environmental measures, educational measures, and health-related measures. Migrant husbands’ age and their education, the household’s alternative income sources’ availability, receiving loans, disaster history, and migration history variables contributed most significantly to the adaptation behavior. This study provides a new perspective on seasonal male out-migration and the adaptation strategies of the left-behind families, which could be helpful for disaster-induced human migration management and enhancing the resilience of vulnerable communities.

The right to adequate housing for IDPs in the context of slow-onset climate-induced disasters within the European Union

Abstract The effects of climate change are projected to lead to significant displacement within the European Union (EU). However, internal displacement caused by slow-onset disasters has been neglected from discourse, and the EU lacks a legal framework for internal displacement. This article deploys an interdisciplinary approach to assess the protection offered to internally placed persons (IDPs) in this context: a legal analysis evaluates the right to adequate housing and a discourse analysis unpacks the construction of ‘forced displacement’ surrounding the non-binding Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement. Special attention will be paid to individual vulnerabilities and structural socio-economic constraints as drivers for internal displacement. The findings reveal that the human-rights-based framework provides relatively weak socio-economic housing rights. Protection of adequate housing is only offered in reactive claims requiring proof of severe environmental impact. Moreover, IDPs were initially constructed as a distinct group characterized by direct violence and imminent disasters rather than structural constraints. While the discourse recently shifted to recognize the complexity of individual displacement experiences, no corresponding concept has been institutionalized. Thus, this article recommends that the EU draw inspiration from the Kampala Convention regarding its definition of internal displacement, the legally binding nature and proactive state obligations.

Zoonoses in the margins: environmental displacement and health outcomes in the Indus Delta

BackgroundIt remains unclear how human and animal displacement impacts zoonotic disease risk with little contextualized primary data available. This study investigates zoonotic disease dynamics in populations regularly displaced due to slow onset disasters and annual monsoons in the Indus Delta in Sindh province in southeast Pakistan.MethodsUsing a case study methodology, semi-structured key informant interviews and focus group discussions with 35 participants, as well as observational studies were conducted in seven communities in Thatta district.ResultsKey factors affecting zoonotic disease dynamics in environmental displacement in Thatta identified in the study include disasters and loss of forage, a lack of veterinary and healthcare access, and socio-economic status. Animal and human health are an important consideration in displacement disrupting communities and livelihoods, affecting safety, health, and food security. Displacement results in a poverty spiral whereby the displaced find themselves at continuous peril from poverty and disaster, with zoonotic disease dynamics shifting based on environmental changes, and an expectation of future movement and loss.ConclusionThe precarious conditions generated through the disruption of communities and livelihoods makes environmentally displaced populations vulnerable to zoonotic disease. To prevent further displacement and disease, broader political economy issues need to be addressed, and comprehensive assistance provided to support sustainable livelihoods.

Applying a disaster recovery framework to racism as a public health crisis: From theory to practice

ABSTRACT Amidst the intersecting crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing police brutality against Black people, jurisdictions across the United States declared racism to be a public health crisis in the summer of 2020. According to the American Public Health Association (APHA), 233 jurisdictions have published such declarations as of January 2022, with 92% of declarations being made at the city or county level. What does it mean to frame racism as a public health crisis? This paper explores and compares theoretical and practical definitions of disasters and crises from the planning field through a review of the literature. The author concludes that racism can be conceptualized as a slow-onset disaster. With the understanding that racism can be understood as a disaster, the author demonstrates the utility of leveraging a disaster recovery framework to drive a comprehensive response to address racism as a public health crisis.

Methodological challenges in assessing loss and damage from climate-related extreme events and slow onset disasters: Evidence from India

Estimations of losses and damages (L&Ds) from climate-related extreme events and slow-onset disasters have received significant attention in all the Conference of Parties (CoP) meetings in the last two decades, particularly after the CoP-13 held in Bali in 2007. Society incurs two types of L&D, i.e., economic and non-economic, and the latter is mostly found ignored in L&D assessment reports, because it cannot be estimated directly, either in pecuniary or non-pecuniary terms. While the financial part of L&Ds has taken centre stage in international negotiations, estimations of ex-ante and ex-post L&Ds could assist policymakers in assessing unavoided and unavoidable L&Ds, provide inputs to demand compensation, insurance, and risk management options, and facilitate further progression of L&D scholarship. Although the computation of L&Ds is imperative, a few estimations are available from developing nations, including India, because of a lack of clarity in the existing definition, methods and several limitations associated with estimating L&Ds. Hence, this paper points out methodological issues that emerged while assessing post-disaster L&Ds in India from extreme events and slow-onset disasters, particularly cyclonic storms, floods, and droughts. This study, on the one hand, provokes scholarly communities and policymakers to address these methodological gaps to further increase the number of L&D studies, and on the other hand, furnishes suggestions to redefine L&D and to improvise estimation methods, so that both economic and non-economic L&D indicators may be covered to a large extent.

Pedestrian Single and Multi-Risk Assessment to SLODs in Urban Built Environment: A Mesoscale Approach

Pedestrians are increasingly exposed to slow-onset disasters (SLODs), such as air pollution and increasing temperatures in urban built environments (BEs). Pedestrians also face risks that arise from the combination of the BE features, the effects of SLODs on the microclimate, their own characteristics (e.g., health and ability), and the way they move and behave in indoor and outdoor BE areas. Thus, the effectiveness of sustainable risk-mitigation solutions for the health of the exposed pedestrians should be defined by considering the overlapping of such factors in critical operational scenarios in which such emergency conditions can appear. This work provides an innovative method to define a BE-oriented pedestrian risk index through a dynamic meso-scale approach that considers the daily variation of risk conditions. The method is ensured by a quick-to-apply approach, which also takes advantage of open-source repositories and tools to collect and manage input data, without the need for time-consuming in situ surveys. The resulting risk conditions are represented through meso-scale maps, which highlight the risk differences between BEs by focusing on their open spaces as fundamental parts of the urban road network. The method is applied to a significant case study (in Milan, Italy). The results demonstrate the ability of the approach to identify key input scenarios for risk assessment and mapping. The proposed methodology can: (1) provide insights for simulation activities in critical BE conditions, thanks to the identification of critical daily conditions for each of the factors and for single and multiple risks and (2) support the development of design and regeneration strategies in SLOD-prone urban BEs, as well as the identification of priority areas in the urban BE.

Housing challenges in sinking coastal city: rethinking urban housing in subsidence area for a more resilient community

Housing in coastal cities is facing complex environmental hazards. The risk of being permanently submerged caused by sea level rise-related flooding is aggravated by the localized hazards, which is land subsidence. We explored the land subsidence conditions in the housing zone of Semarang City using overlay spatial analysis, and we expand the discussion to the regulatory aspect and local adaptation through content analysis. We found that challenges in housing zone are the severe subsidence that is occurring on dense housing zone, regulation that still less sensitive towards incorporating the slow onset disaster and not properly provided housing hydrological consideration nor the water provision, and poor drainage system as well as limited adaptation capacity that makes people lives in a false harmony of being resilient. Affordable alternative housing such as stilt house and drainage infrastructure improvement as well as detailing and reframing building regulation that is adequate to address both subsidence and flooding is undeniably important to ensure the adequate housing is accessible for all coastal city residents.

The vulnerability of Antandroy women to droughts in Ambovombe Androy (Madagascar)

Droughts are slow-onset disasters with devastating impacts that can last for months and even years. The poorest communities are usually the hardest hit by droughts. In the Androy region of Madagascar, droughts are a constant major handicap for agriculture and farming which are the two main local economic activities. Human vulnerability to droughts differs according to age, sex, and physical conditions. The precariousness of the situation of Antandroy women caused by droughts motivated the choice of this study, which sought to understand the factors behind women's vulnerability to this risk. To study these factors, documents on gender, vulnerability, droughts and the Androy region were collected and analysed. We then conducted interviews and a survey to understand the Antandroy's living conditions. Several factors lead to women's high degree of vulnerability, such as the particular climate of Androy, household's size, duties, difficulties faced by the agricultural production, early marriage, migration and low educational levels. To contribute to the reduction of their vulnerability to droughts, Antandroy women should reinforce their adaptability by developing income-generating activities in diversified sectors, using varied seeds and protecting the environment, with the definitive eradication of slash-and-burn cultivation and bushfires.

Cash versus in-kind transfer programs in humanitarian operations: An optimization program and a case study

Humanitarian organizations, mandated with responding to emergencies, generally provide food assistance via in-kind and/or cash transfers. Although cash and in-kind transfers have had varying effects across different regions, the superiority of one over the other has been debated. This study considers a mixed strategy that includes both cash and in-kind transfer in the presence of finite budget, given a slow-onset disaster such as famine or drought. Importantly, it proposes an evidence-based framework based on the given data. Specifically, a two-stage stochastic program with recourse is proposed, where uncertainty stems from the slow-onset disaster that has non-uniform impact across a given geographical region. The proposed program is first used to study the slow-onset disaster situation in Kenya, and then to evaluate the performance of the cash versus in-kind transfer programs. We also solved larger size problem instances using the sample average approximation (SAA) algorithm, and the resulting analyses underscore the deductions of the case study that although cash transfer is more efficient than in-kind transfer, however, the latter is inevitable due to local unavailability of certain commodities.

Informal social support and disaster preparedness: Mediating roles of perceived collective efficacy and self-efficacy

This study investigates the mechanisms of informal social support on individuals' disaster preparedness. Specifically, we examine the mediating roles of perceived collective efficacy and self-efficacy. Drawing on survey data of 1056 drought-prone and 203 earthquake-prone villagers in two rural areas of China, we found that informal social support affected preparedness positively in the drought contexts but negatively in the earthquake contexts. Moreover, as mediators, perceived collective efficacy and self-efficacy differed in their effects on people's disaster preparations. The findings provide important insights for risk managers in showing that interventions involving collective efficacy can be effective in stimulating individual preparation in the slow-onset disaster environment, such as drought, whereas those involving self-efficacy can be effective for sudden onset disaster environment, such as earthquakes.

Land Value in a Disaster-Prone Urbanized Coastal Area: A Case Study from Semarang City, Indonesia

Coastal areas have been growing massively worldwide. The fast growth also affects the land value in either a positive or a negative way. Many scholars have studied land value and the factors that affect it in areas prone to sudden-onset disasters. In contrast, studies on urbanized coastal areas that suffer from slow-onset disasters are still lacking. Using a case study from Semarang City in Indonesia, this research aims at ameliorating this limitation. To comprehensively understand the aim, two research questions are addressed: (1) What is the distribution of land value in urbanized coastal areas? (2) How do the different distribution factors determine the land value? Based on in-depth interviews with key persons, map analyses, and desk studies, this research discovers that land value is distributed randomly among coastal areas. The dynamics of land value are determined by road access, distance, and accessibility to the city center and CBD, public facilities, transportation facilities, population composition, physical environment, and disasters. Surprisingly, the coastal areas in Semarang that experience combined disasters showed that disasters could not decrease the land value; the value in some areas is constant or even increasing. This shows the different impacts of disasters on land value for slow-onset disasters and sudden-onset disasters.

Managing city-scale slow-onset disasters: Learning from Cape Town's 2015–2018 drought disaster planning

Disaster planning for slow-onset city-wide shocks will be become increasingly necessary, particularly as cities face increasingly severe climate hazards. This paper provides unique insight into the disaster planning and management that was undertaken by the City of Cape Town government in response to its most severe hydrological drought on record. It describes how risk was understood and why decisions were made on key elements of the plan, including trigger points, risk prioritisation and mitigation, and the location and design of points of distribution of water rations for the public. Reflecting upon the authors’ experience and interviews with senior City officials who worked on the drought disaster planning and response, the paper extracts five key lessons learnt that have since been applied during the COVID-19 pandemic: (i) the need for cross-functional planning and response skills, (ii) the need for integrated, up-to-date and scale-appropriate data; (iii) the importance of scenario-based simulations, communication and rapid costing to enable the rapid scaling-up of a response; (iv) the value of being able to use outsourced expert capacity effectively; and (v) the application of previously used disaster management and planning experience to build resilience in cities. These lessons, captured in a visual framework, help reflect on capabilities required for responding to future city-scale disasters. The paper provides an informative case study for other cities and risk managers, and will be particularly useful for global South contexts that face drought and other slow-onset disasters, most recently illustrated by the COVID-19 pandemic.