Population Research Articles

Optimal vaccination policy to prevent endemicity: a stochastic model

We examine here the effects of recurrent vaccination and waning immunity on the establishment of an endemic equilibrium in a population. An individual-based model that incorporates memory effects for transmission rate during infection and subsequent immunity is introduced, considering stochasticity at the individual level. By letting the population size going to infinity, we derive a set of equations describing the large scale behavior of the epidemic. The analysis of the model’s equilibria reveals a criterion for the existence of an endemic equilibrium, which depends on the rate of immunity loss and the distribution of time between booster doses. The outcome of a vaccination policy in this context is influenced by the efficiency of the vaccine in blocking transmissions and the distribution pattern of booster doses within the population. Strategies with evenly spaced booster shots at the individual level prove to be more effective in preventing disease spread compared to irregularly spaced boosters, as longer intervals without vaccination increase susceptibility and facilitate more efficient disease transmission. We provide an expression for the critical fraction of the population required to adhere to the vaccination policy in order to eradicate the disease, that resembles a well-known threshold for preventing an outbreak with an imperfect vaccine. We also investigate the consequences of unequal vaccine access in a population and prove that, under reasonable assumptions, fair vaccine allocation is the optimal strategy to prevent endemicity.

Allele ages provide limited information about the strength of negative selection.

For many problems in population genetics, it is useful to characterize the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of de novo mutations among a certain class of sites. A DFE is typically estimated by fitting an observed site frequency spectrum (SFS) to an expected SFS given a hypothesized distribution of selection coefficients and demographic history. The development of tools to infer gene trees from haplotype alignments, along with ancient DNA resources, provides us with additional information about the frequency trajectories of segregating mutations. Here, we ask how useful this additional information is for learning about the DFE, using the joint distribution on allele frequency and age to summarize information about the trajectory. To this end, we introduce an accurate and efficient numerical method for computing the density on the age of a segregating variant found at a given sample frequency, given the strength of selection and an arbitrarily complex population size history. We then use this framework to show that the unconditional age distribution of negatively selected alleles is very closely approximated by re-weighting the neutral age distribution in terms of the negatively selected SFS, suggesting that allele ages provide little information about the DFE beyond that already contained in the present day frequency. To confirm this prediction, we extended the standard Poisson Random Field (PRF) method to incorporate the joint distribution of frequency and age in estimating selection coefficients, and test its performance using simulations. We find that when the full SFS is observed and the true allele ages are known, including ages in the estimation provides only small increases in the accuracy of estimated selection coefficients. However, if only sites with frequencies above a certain threshold are observed, then the true ages can provide substantial information about the selection coefficients, especially when the selection coefficient is large. When ages are estimated from haplotype data using state-of-the-art tools, uncertainty about the age abrogates most of the additional information in the fully observed SFS case, while the neutral prior assumed in these tools when estimating ages induces a downward bias in the case of the thresholded SFS.

Identification of Environmental Factors Influencing the Population of Endangered Epilobium hirsutum L. in Korea

Epilobium hirsutum has been identified as a Class II endangered species in Korea. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop habitat conservation and improvement strategies for the protection of E. hirsutum. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the environmental characteristics of E. hirsutum habitats and identify key environmental factors influencing the population size. To this end, we conducted field surveys and performed a spatial data analysis to collect data on 38 environmental characteristics associated with the population size of E. hirsutum. We performed factor and path analyses to identify the environmental factors influencing the population size and the correlations between the population size and environmental factors. The common factors identified in both analyses were the average temperature in March, available P, soil pH, and soil humidity. Therefore, to manage E. hirsutum habitats or create alternative habitats, areas with a low air temperature and high soil moisture must be selected. It is necessary to remove tall plants and amend soils with alkaline fertilizers containing P. Additionally, it may be effective to implement a management strategy that induces vegetative propagation and seed germination by replacing agricultural waterways made of concrete with those made of rock and soil.

Using population register data and capture-recapture models to estimate over-coverage in Sweden

Over-coverage occurs when individuals who reside in a country leave or pass away, and this demographic event is not recorded in population registers, leading to population size overestimation. This problem can have important policy and decision-making consequences. With the increased reliance on incomplete but overlapping official registers for documenting whole populations or subgroups of populations, there is a need for more sophisticated modelling techniques that reliably estimate population size, and hence over-coverage, from such registers. Previous approaches have considered multiple systems estimation (MSE) for monitoring over-coverage, but MSE does not naturally extend to cases where individuals are followed over time. In this paper, motivated by the case study of Sweden, we develop a capture-recapture (CR) modelling framework for population registers that allows us to estimate the population size each year, the probability of presence for each individual in the population, conditional on their records, each year and to quantify the effect of demographic characteristics on the probability of emigration and re-immigration, amongst other parameters. Our results suggest that the CR approach, which accounts for the whole time series for each individual, gives a more realistic estimate of the population size compared to existing, deterministic approaches, especially when considering the subgroup of newly arrived individuals, and that it provides new insights on individual behaviour in terms of migration patterns than existing MSE approaches.

Impact of Immigration Policy on future US population size

Immigration will be the key factor determining whether populations in the developed world increase or decrease over the coming century. New policy-based population projections illustrate this for the United States. Expansive immigration policies could increase the US population by hundreds of millions by 2100, while more restrictive policies could lead to population stabilisation or significant reductions. For the US, there is no plausible high-immigration path to a sustainable population. Because larger populations increase human environmental impacts, sustainability advocates in the US and other countries with high net immigration levels have strong prima facie reasons to support immigration reductions. Such reductions could achieve smaller populations in receiver countries and encourage smaller populations in sender countries, contributing to global ecological sustainability.

Functional Central Limits Theorem for epidemic model with varying infectivity and waning immunity

We study an individual-based stochastic epidemic model in which infected individuals become susceptible again following each infection (generalized SIS model). Speci cally, after each infection, the infectivity is a random function of the time elapsed since the infection, and each recovered individual loses immunity gradually (equivalently, becomes gradually susceptible) after some time according to a random susceptibility function. The epidemic dynamics is described by the average infectivity and susceptibility processes in the population together with the numbers of infected and susceptible/uninfected individuals. In [12], a functional law of large numbers (FLLN) is proved as the population size goes to in nity, and asymptotic endemic behaviors are also studied. In this paper, we prove a functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for the stochastic ™uctuations of the epidemic dynamics around the FLLN limit. The FCLT limit for the aggregate infectivity and susceptibility processes is given by a system of stochastic non-linear integral equation driven by a two-dimensional Gaussian process.

Allee pits in metapopulations: critical dispersal rates for connectivity to be beneficial

Habitat fragmentation divides populations into smaller subpopulations. At the same time, the Allee effect reduces the growth and thereby the viability of small populations. Hence, habitat fragmentation and the Allee effect can synergistically amplify negative impacts on spatially distributed populations. To support endangered populations, management and conservation strategies aim to improve connectivity between subpopulations by creating corridors and stepping stones, for instance. This study investigates how enhanced connectivity (strength of connections between subpopulations in terms of dispersal rate) influences a fragmented population subject to the Allee effect. Using a generic two-patch discrete-time model with a positively density-dependent growth function, we study the impact of connectivity on the asymptotic total population size through simulations. Due to the Allee effect, low connectivity can lead to a decline in the asymptotic total population size, which we call the Allee pit. However, increased connectivity facilitates the rescue effect, wherein a persistent subpopulation in one patch can save an extinction-prone subpopulation in another patch. We find that for connectivity to benefit the asymptotic total population size, dispersal must be sufficiently large to push the smaller subpopulation above its Allee threshold. If dispersal is below this critical dispersal rate, there remains a detrimental effect on the asymptotic total population size. Therefore, this study implies that conservation strategies should not only aim to increase connectivity in fragmented populations subject to Allee effects but also ensure that the critical dispersal rate is surpassed.

Using microbes to suppress overwintering inoculum of Monilinia laxa on mummified fruits and to protect cherry blossoms and fruit from infection

Cherry brown rot, primarily caused by Monilinia laxa, poses a significant threat to cherry production in the UK. Traditional control methods are labour-intensive or environmentally damaging, favouring alternative solutions such as using biological control agents (BCAs). This study investigated the survival and efficacy of two BCAs, Bacillus subtilis (B91) and Aureobasidium pullulans (Y126), in reducing M. laxa populations on mummified fruits and cherry blossoms. Field experiments were conducted to assess the survival of B91 and Y126 on mummified fruits over winter and their effect on M. laxa sporulation in spring. Additionally, the efficacy of the two BCAs when applied to cherry blossoms was evaluated, at different times of application relative to M. laxa inoculation. Y126 could persist on blossoms and throughout the growing season. B91 population level declined rapidly on blossoms but recovered once fruits appeared. Neither BCA usefully reduced the concentration of M. laxa. Y126 was marginally more effective at long-term reduction. On mummified fruits, Y126 population size declined rapidly within the first two weeks after inoculation before stabilising. B91 survived slightly longer. Longer interaction times between M. laxa and the BCAs in the late winter resulted in lower spore counts of M. laxa from mummified fruits. While both BCAs reduced M. laxa populations when applied close to M. laxa inoculation, BCA populations were not maintained at effective levels throughout the growing season. These results suggest that multiple applications targeting critical periods (blossom and pre-harvest) are necessary for effective control of M. laxa by either of these BCAs.

Environmental drivers of seed persistence and seedling trait variation in two Neltuma species (Fabaceae)

Abstract The endemic tree Neltuma caldenia Burk. and the shrub Neltuma flexuosa var depressa F.A. Roig (Fabaceae; subfam: Mimosoideae) are two promising species from the central region of Argentina, with high potential for use in the restoration of disturbed environments, for extensive livestock grazing and apiculture. Both species have seeds with physical dormancy. Ecological study of native species is important from the point of view of rehabilitation of degraded areas by natural regeneration or via seed-based programmes. The objective of this study was to evaluate soil seed bank persistence and seedling traits to understand variation among different populations of each of the study species growing along an ecological gradient and to identify potential components driving this variation. Home environments influenced seed bank persistence, which was higher in populations originating from more arid and unpredictable environments where it could act as a bet-hedging strategy between years and seasons. We also observed differences associated with seedling growth traits between the species and populations. Populations with higher seed persistence were associated with greater seedling growth in N. caldenia. The rapid elongation rate of N. caldenia seedlings growing in large populations and unstable environments could help their ability to escape drought by accessing deeper soil moisture and would confer a high relative competitive ability. In contrast, N. f. var depressa displayed higher seed persistence, which was associated with more arid and unstable conditions and correlated with lower seedling growth, possibly due to an inbreeding depression effect, resulting from the presence of mother plants in low-densities or being isolated from other individuals. There was no effect of population size on seed persistence. To better understand seed persistence and associated seedling trait variation, future studies need to consider the genotype, environment and landscape conditions.

The risk status, signatures of adaptation, and environmental suitability of village-based indigenous chickens from certain regions of Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal provinces of South Africa

Indigenous chickens are an important Farm Animal Genetic Resource (FAnGR) in South Africa as they alleviate poverty and are a source of protein. Climate change and market demand for high-performing exotic breeds threaten and undermine locally adapted village chickens. The current study explored the risk status and signatures of adaptation of village-based indigenous chickens from two provinces and mapped their environmental suitability across the country. A total of 244 village chickens from rural areas of the Capricorn (n = 85) and Sekhukhune (n = 113) districts of Limpopo province; the Harry Gwala (n = 21) and uMzinyathi (n = 25) districts of KwaZulu-Natal province were genotyped using the Illumina 60K BeadChip. The conservation flock comprised Ovambo (OV; n = 10), Potchefstroom KoeKoek (PK; n = 20), and Venda (VD; n = 20). Naked Neck (NN; n = 20), New Hampshire (NH; n = 10), White Leghorn (WL; n = 10), and White Plymouth Rock (WR; n = 10) from the Agricultural Research Council Poultry Breeding Unit were used as reference populations and representative of flocks under conservation. The effective population size (Ne) in village chickens and conserved flocks ranged from 18 to 53 and 26 to 38 at 12 generations ago, respectively. PC1 and PC2 explained 5.64% of the total variation, which resulted in five clusters with the Venda, Naked Neck, and White Leghorn being separated from village chickens. The first three redundancy analysis (RDA) axes capture 46.8% of the total genetic variation used to detect significant outlier SNPs. A total of 386 outlier SNPs associated with all 10 environmental variables were detected. Using ecological niche modeling, chickens from Dipakakeng, Mgababa, and Podu villages, Limpopo, had a localized predicted suitability probability, while chickens originating from Nhlonga village, KwaZulu-Natal, had a broader distribution of predicted suitability habitats with elevation and BIO6 being important variables. The results of this study provide insight into the risk status, geographic suitability, and contributing environmental factors of indigenous chickens that can be used to influence conservation and improvement decisions.

Breaking the Hybrid Myth of Paphiopedilum wenshanense: Double Bifurcated Divergence Followed by Adaptive Introgression Formed a Morphological Intermediate.

Species with intermediate phenotypes are usually hypothesised to have originated from hybrid speciation. However, other mechanisms, such as double bifurcated speciation with introgression may create the same phenotypes. Clarifying the underlying process generating the observed intermediate morphology is important for conservation efforts, as it provides insights into the species' evolutionary background and adaptability. Here, we utilised genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism data to test evolutionary history models for Paphiopedilum wenshanense Z. J. Liu & J. Yong Zhang, an orchid species that is widely considered to be a hybrid with intermediate morphology of other two closely related species, P. concolor Pfitzer and P. bellatulum Pfitzer, distributed in Indochina. Our results rejected the hybrid speciation hypothesis and ascribed the intermediate floral phenotypes of P. wenshanese to introgression from P. concolor after it diverged from P. bellatulum during the last glacial maximum. Excluding the geographic covariate, the current genetic mixing rate of P. wenshanense from P. concolor is stronger in the south part of its range and is associated with precipitation in the early summer, indicating that population divergence in P. wenshanense is being driven by adaptive introgression. These genetic patterns also correspond to the observed floral variation across P. wenshaense populations. The introgression from P. concolor, along with the intermediate and varying floral morphologies, may expand the ecological opportunities for P. wenshanense, providing an explanation for why high genetic diversity has been maintained despite a high level of inbreeding and small census population size. Our study provides a framework for future research to investigate the characteristics and underlying mechanisms of intermediate morphologies in general.

Genetic Structural Changes While Maintaining Effective Population Size of Bighead Catfish in Nong Han Lake: Implications of Metapopulation Dynamics or Release Activities

ABSTRACTThe Bighead Catfish (Clarias macrocephalus) plays crucial roles in the ecosystem and as a protein source for humans in Nong Han Lake, Thailand, but their ecological and population dynamics, along with their genetic diversity and structure, are poorly understood. Therefore, the dynamics of genetic diversity and differentiation of bighead catfish populations in Nong Han Lake were investigated during 2018–2023 to provide essential insights into preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecological balance. Microsatellite genotyping was used to assess the genetic diversity of one bighead catfish population in 2018, two populations in 2023, and one hatchery population. Potentially stable, effective population sizes and distinct genetic clusters of these populations were identified, which represented the resilience of populations and the complexity of their genetic dynamics. Genetic differentiation between sample dates and among populations suggested that limited recent and historical genetic exchanges could potentially influence genetic structure. The impact of ecological factors, including flooding, metapopulation dynamics, and human interventions, was indicated by unique and shared gene pools among populations and subpopulations in different years. Ongoing assessment of genetic diversity and structure of bighead populations is essential for developing conservation strategies and ensuring sustainable management.

The silent barrier: exploring data availability in Small Island Developing States.

To quantify three aspects of data-related developmental progress across 57 Small Island Developing States (SIDS) recognized by the United Nations: statistical capacity measured using the Statistical Performance Indicators (SPI), data availability using the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators, and gender-stratified indicators. SIDS as a single country group were compared with other World Bank regions, using SPI, availability of SDG metrics, and availability of gender-stratified metrics. Using population size as a proxy for "smallness," its association with data capacity and availability was modeled. SPI among SIDS was lower than in any world region - broadly equivalent to Sub-Saharan Africa. Two-thirds of SDG indicators were available for SIDS in 2022; other world regions having between 71% and 87% availability. One-third of gender-stratified indicators were available for SIDS in 2022; other world regions having between 58% and 68% availability. Population size was strongly associated with each outcome, with SIDS having a statistical capacity 18.0 percentage points lower than other countries [95% CI (8.5, 27.4)], SDG data availability 17.4 percentage points lower [95% CI (13.1, 21.7)], and gender-stratified indicator availability 28.8 percentage points lower [95% CI (24.5, 33.0)]. As global demand and associated rewards for electronic data increase, our analysis highlights the challenges introduced by island "smallness" in the global push for digital transformation. Regional cooperation mechanisms, sustained international support, and systematic monitoring of data availability are urgently required to monitor capacity development.

An Improved Spider Wasp Optimizer for UAV Three-Dimensional Path Planning

This paper proposes an Improved Spider Wasp Optimizer (ISWO) to address inaccuracies in calculating the population (N) during iterations of the SWO algorithm. By innovating the population iteration formula and integrating the advantages of Differential Evolution and the Crayfish Optimization Algorithm, along with introducing an opposition-based learning strategy, ISWO accelerates convergence. The adaptive parameters trade-off probability (TR) and crossover probability (Cr) are dynamically updated to balance the exploration and exploitation phases. In each generation, ISWO optimizes individual positions using Lévy flights, DE’s mutation, and crossover operations, and COA’s adaptive update mechanisms. The OBL strategy is applied every 10 generations to enhance population diversity. As the iterations progress, the population size gradually decreases, ultimately yielding the optimal solution and recording the convergence process. The algorithm’s performance is tested using the 2017 test set, modeling a mountainous environment with a Gaussian function model. Under constraint conditions, the objective function is updated to establish a mathematical model for UAV flight. The minimal cost for obstacle-avoiding flight within the specified airspace is obtained using the fitness function, and the flight path is smoothed through cubic spline interpolation. Overall, ISWO generates high-quality, smooth paths with fewer iterations, overcoming premature convergence and the insufficient local search capabilities of traditional genetic algorithms, adapting to complex terrains, and providing an efficient and reliable solution.

Pengaruh Institusi Terhadap Derajat Desentralisasi Fiskal di Indonesia

The main issue underlying this research is the significant disparity in the degree of fiscal decentralization among provinces in Indonesia, particularly between provinces in Java and outside Java, and the persistently high fiscal dependency of several regions on the central government. This study aims to analyze the influence of democracy, economic growth, Gini ratio, and population size on the degree of fiscal decentralization in Indonesia. Using panel data from 32 provinces during the 2012-2023 period, this research applies a Random Effect Model (REM) with robust standard error. The results show that democracy, economic growth, and population size have positive and significant effects on the degree of fiscal decentralization, while the Gini ratio shows no significant influence. These findings imply that improvements in democratic quality, economic growth, and optimization of demographic potential can strengthen regional fiscal independence. This research recommends that local governments focus their policies on strengthening democratization, increasing economic growth, and optimizing human resource potential to enhance regional fiscal independence.

A bibliometric analysis of inflammatory bowel disease research in the Arab world.

The prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) continues to increase worldwide, including in the Arab world. This study investigates IBD research output in Arab countries from 2009 to 2023, alongside prevalence and incidence trends. We utilized bibliometric analysis with data from Clarivate Analytics, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, and the World Bank. We compared the research output, citation impact, and funding across 22 Arab countries with global averages. Spearman's correlation examined relationships between IBD publications and prevalence, incidence rates, gross domestic product (GDP), and population size. Between 2009 and 2023, Arab countries produced 1004 IBD-related publications (2.9% of global output), with Saudi Arabia (37.7%) and Egypt (27.5%) being the leading countries. The median IBD incidence rose from 2.42 to 3.06 per 100,000, with the prevalence increasing from 28.93 to 33.95 per 100,000 from 2009 to 2019. Arab IBD research had a citation impact of 14.49 compared to the global average of 23.98. Funded research constituted 18.7% of Arab publications, lower than the global rate of 32.4%. We found positive correlations between IBD publication counts and prevalence (r s = 0.753), incidence rates (r s = 0.734), and GDP (r s = 0.782), all with P < 0.001. Population size showed a nonsignificant correlation (r s = 0.371, P = 0.090) with IBD publication counts. Arab nations contribute 2.9% of global IBD research, with lower citation impact and funding than the global average. Enhanced local support is crucial to improving research impact and addressing the rising prevalence of IBD in the Arab world.

Development of a panel of SNP loci in the emblematic southern damselfly (Coenagrion mercuriale) using a hybrid method: pitfalls and recommendations for large-scale SNP genotyping in a non-model endangered species.

Genomic markers are essential tools for studying species of conservation concern, yet non-model species often lack a reference genome. Here we describe a methodology for identifying and genotyping thousands of SNP loci in the southern damselfly (Coenagrion mercuriale), a bioindicator of freshwater stream quality classified as near-threatened, with locally declining populations. We used a hybrid approach combining reduced representation sequencing and target enrichment. First, we identified putative SNP loci using ddRADseq and de novo assembly. Then, single primer enrichment technology targeted 6,000 of these SNPs across 1,920 individuals. Challenges encountered included sequence recapture failure, coverage depth discrepancies, and aberrant FIS values. We provide recommendations to address such issues. After multiple filtering steps, 2,092 SNPs were retained and used to analyse the genetic structure of 131 individuals belonging to 11 populations in France, comparing central and marginal populations. Genetic differentiation was lower among central populations, with no sign of inbreeding. As compared to microsatellite loci, SNPs exhibited greater resolution in detecting fine-scaled genetic structure, identifying putative hybrids in adjacent populations. In this study, we emphasise the difficulties of large-scale SNP genotyping in non-model species via a hybrid method that ultimately did not offer the expected cost and time saving compared to classical ddRAD approaches. However, SNPs showed greater power than previously available markers in identifying conservation units or admixture events, and the panel of reusable probes we describe here offers the potential to improve conservation efforts through future diachronic studies or finer estimations of key parameters like effective population size.

Comparative analysis of cancer statistics in China and the United States in 2024.

Cancer patterns in China are becoming similar to those in the United States (US). Comparing the recent cancer profiles, trends, and determinants in China and the US can provide useful reference data. This study used open-source data. We used GLOBOCAN 2022 cancer estimates and United Nations population estimates to calculate cancer cases and deaths in both countries during 2024. Data on cancer incidence and mortality trends were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and National Centre for Health Statistics in the US and cancer registry reports of the National Cancer Center (NCC) of China. Data from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) and a decomposition approach were used to estimate the contributions of four determinants to the change in cancer deaths. In 2024, there are an estimated 3,246,625 and 2,510,597 new cancer cases and 1,699,066 and 640,038 cancer deaths in China and the US, respectively. The highest estimated cancer cases are lung cancer in China and breast cancer in the US. The age-standardized incidence rates of lung and colorectal cancer in the US, and stomach, liver, and esophageal cancer in China have decreased, but the incidence rates of liver cancer in the US and colorectal cancer, prostate cancer in men, and cervical cancer in women in China have increased. Increases in the adult population size and population aging are main reasons for the increase in cancer deaths; case fatality rates are a main reason for the decrease in cancer deaths in both countries. China has made progress in cancer control but lags the US. Considering the transformation in China's pattern of cancers epidemiology, it is imperative to develop stronger policies by adopting the cancer prevention and control strategies used in the US to address population aging and curb growing cancer trends.

Four new genome sequences of the Pallas’s cat (Otocolobus manul): an insight into the patterns of within-species variability

Manul (Otocolobus manul) is the only representative of the genus Otocolobus, which makes up the Leopard Cat lineage along with the genus Prionailurus. Their habitat is characterized by harsh environmental conditions. Although their populations are probably more stable than previously thought, it is still the case that their population size is declining. Conservation programs exist to protect manuls, but those based on captive breeding are often unsuccessful due to their increased susceptibility to diseases. The manul is therefore a suitable model species for evolutionary and diversity studies as well as for studying mechanisms of adaptation to harsh environment and mechanisms of susceptibility to diseases. Recently, the genome of the O. manul based on nanopore long-range sequencing has been published. Aiming to better understand inter- and intraspecific variation of the species, we obtained information on genome sequences of four other manuls, based on whole genome resequencing via the Illumina platform. On average, we detected a total of 3,636,571 polymorphic variants. Information on different types of structural variants and on the extent of SNP homozygosity, not available from the reference genome, was retrieved. The average whole-genome heterozygosity was almost identical to that found in the O. manul reference genome. In this context, we performed a more detailed analysis of the candidate gene EPAS1 potentially related to adaptation to the hypoxic environment. This analysis revealed both inter- and intraspecific variation, confirmed the presence of a previously described non-synonymous substitution in exon 15 unique to manuls and identified three additional unique non-synonymous substitutions located in so far not analyzed EPAS1 exonic sequences. The analysis of lncRNA located in the intron 7 of EPAS1 revealed interspecific variability and monomorphic nature of the sequence among analyzed manuls. The data obtained will allow more detailed analyses of the manul genome, focusing on genes and pathways involved in their adaptation to the environment and in susceptibility to diseases. This information can be helpful for optimizing conservation programs for this understudied species.

Future Subnational Population Change in Germany: The Role of Internal and International Migration

ABSTRACTPopulation change in Germany at the subnational level is particularly driven by changes in net international migration and shifts in internal migration flows between urbanisation, suburbanisation and counter‐urbanisation. Official population projections at the county level use a single scenario, thereby omitting uncertainty that arises from changing patterns in the assumed components of demographic change. We use a cohort‐component model that incorporates the spatial distribution of a net number of international migrants and internal migration matrices to provide population projections for 401 counties in Germany until 2070, encompassing nine total international and internal migration scenario combinations. Our results show a full potential outcome space of future subnational population change in Germany and highlight the variability in this possible change in terms of population structure, size, and spatial distribution. Across the scenarios, the total population of Germany is projected to be between 74.25 and 86.84 million people in 2040 (83.4 in 2023). There are also considerable differences in how the total population and its distribution might change spatially, both between urban and rural areas and in age structure. Thus, depending on the assumed absolute level of net international migration and the direction of internal migratory patterns we, highlight how internal and international migration patterns will continue to play a large role in future population development in Germany at the county level.