Situation In Venezuela Research Articles

Venezuela: An Example of a Stable Dictatorship in Latin America

Abstract
 
 The following article aims to analyse the current situation in Venezuela, identifying some helpful information written by academics on this topic. Thus, this essay will focus on the five stages a government faces when it loses legitimacy, as described by Samuel Huntington in his book Democracy's third wave. Furthermore, after analysing them, it will draw some arguments explaining why Venezuela has not made a U-turn into democracy yet, to end with a conclusion. 
 
 Key Words: illiberal Democracy, electoral democracy, Venezuela.

Justyna Trubalska. Venezuela – ¿la democracia en una encrucijada?, Episteme Wydawnictwo Naukowe, Lublin 2021, ISBN 978-83-65172-39-6, pp. 58.

In recent years, the economic, political and social situation in Venezuela has become an interesting topic for researchers around the world, including those studying democracy. Since this topic is also interesting from the point of view of my research and personal interests, I read with interest the scientific work entitled Venezuela – democracy at the crossroads?, prepared in Polish by Justyna Trubalska (Trubalska, 2021). The monograph was published in 2021 by Episteme Publishing House in Lublin, Poland. In her analysis, the author focused on the processes of Venezuela’s political transformation from 1999 to December 2020. The adoption of this period is justified due to the qualitative change in the systemic transformation process that began when Hugo Chávez took office in 1999 and the continuation of the process during the tenure of President Nicolás Maduro since 2013.

Mathematical Modeling of Physical Capital Diffusion Using a Spatial Solow Model: Application to Smuggling in Venezuela

This study proposes a mathematical modeling approach for the physical capital diffusion through the borders of countries. Physical capital is considered a crucial variable for the economic growth of a nation. Here, we use an extension of the economic Solow model to describe how smuggling affects the economic growth of countries. In particular, we focus on the situation in Venezuela from 2012 to 2015. In this regard, we rely on a nonconcave production function instead of the classical Cobb–Douglas production function. Moreover, we investigate the effect of different physical capital fluxes on economic growth. The physical capital diffusion through the borders of a country is modeled based on a parabolic partial differential equation describing the dynamics of physical capital and boundary conditions of the Neumann type. Smuggling is present at numerous borders between countries and may include fuel, machinery, and food. This smuggling through the borders places challenges on a particular country’s economy. The smuggling problem usually is related to a non-official exchange rate different from the official rate or subsidies. We study the effect of smuggling on the physical capital of a country using an extended Solow model. Numerical simulations are obtained using an explicit finite difference scheme describing how the physical capital diffusion through the border of a country affects its economic growth. The study of physical capital is a paramount aspect of the economic growth of several countries. The results show that when boundary conditions of Neumann type are different from zero, the dynamics of the physical capital differ from the classical economic behavior observed in the classical spatial Solow model without physical capital flux through the borders of countries. In particular, the numerical results show that the physical capital of a country decreases faster as the flux increases on the boundaries. Thus, we can conclude that avoiding smuggling through the frontiers is a crucial factor affecting economic growth.

A roadmap to make Peru regional power in Latin America

The Republic of Peru marked its bicentennial on July 28, 2021 with political instability, economic problems, a narco-terrorist movement, around one million Venezuelan refugees, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the Andean nation has many resources to obtain a greater international role, Peru’s geopolitical weight is limited. The article discusses the main factors that are taken into account to classify a country as a regional power. Moreover, a roadmap is offered for Peru to improve its international image for the tercentennial. These recommendations include ensuring the leading role of the Peruvian armed forces in United Nations (UN) peacekeeping missions; The Andean Community of Nations under the leadership of Peru to ensure its greatest relevance, as well as “soft power” proposals. Likewise, it is necessary that in Peru, not only the executive power, but also the different governmental agencies and civilian sectors, strive towards making their homeland a regional power. In 2021, in a fragmented Latin America, with no clear regional leader, and with problems such as the pandemic and the situation in Venezuela, there is room for the new regional power to emerge. Peru could take the role, if it has the ambition and a long-term strategic vision.

The Referral of the Situation in Venezuela to the International Criminal Court: The Office of the Prosecutor Should Not Step In… Yet

Abstract On 26 September 2018, six American States Parties to the Rome Statute referred the Situation in Venezuela to the Office of the Prosecutor (‘OTP’) of the International Criminal Court, regarding crimes against humanity. Those States rested on Article 14 of the Rome Statute to proceed. That referral – namely, crimes committed outside the territory of the referring State(s) – was the second of its kind received by the icc in its more than 15-year working history. The otp is currently considering the referral under the so-called ‘Preliminary Examination’ stage, wherein the admissibility test is likely to be addressed within the complementarity principle, according to Article 17 of the Rome Statute. Despite the duty to exercise their criminal jurisdiction, as the Preamble to the Rome Statue stipulates, and the fact that those six American States recognize some sort of extraterritorial jurisdiction, those States remained inactive. What should the otp do when six democracies, who are able to act, do not even try to launch an investigation for crimes they have expressed concerns about, without providing an explanation for their inactivity? This article will analyse how the otp should deal with this referral in terms of the complementarity principle, having regard to the positive approach to complementarity. Accordingly, it will be argued that the Prosecutor should refrain from intervening until those States attempt to act and/or, in case of legal or factual inability, justify the referral.

In times of crisis, the rise of CARICOM’s diplomacy: the case of the Venezuelan migrants within the Southern Caribbean

ABSTRACT This paper aims to serve as an exploration into the implications of the Venezuelan migration crisis into the South-Eastern Caribbean territories of Barbados, Grenada, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago. This paper seeks to present an analytical report of the exercise of soft and economic diplomacy practiced by the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) group. In the CARICOM Statement of January 2019, a call was made for ‘external forces to refrain from doing anything to destabilize the situation in Venezuela … which could have far reaching negative consequences for the wider region’. This paper seeks to use a geopolitical foresight methodology to examine these negative consequences ranging from the decimation of Caribbean trade as a result of military use of the Caribbean shipping routes, the continued ‘divide and rule’ over CARICOM by the United States Government as well as the decline in Caribbean Tourism receipts. A key question raised surrounds determining what is the capacity of several Caribbean Member States to simultaneously host Venezuelan migrants/refugees as well as participate in the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME)’s Free Movement of Labour Regime.

ESTIMATION OF A POSSIBILITY OF PRESERVING ORDER IN A STATE WITH USAGE OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

A political science-mathematical model has been built, designed to assess the possibility of maintaining order in the state. The model is based on a neural network trained on data on the state of many countries in different historical periods. The adequacy of the model is shown by comparing the simulation results with the real course of historical processes. The model was used to estimate the significance of the input parameters. It was found that the most significant parameters that have the greatest impact on the situation in the country are taxes, the state of the economy, and the availability of essential goods. The influence of the most significant parameters on the course of historical events is demonstrated by examples of the situation in France in the period 1629-1634 and in the Ottoman Empire during 1799-1804. Computer experiments were carried out by the scenario forecasting method: using a neural network, calculations were performed by enumerating the values of one parameter, or a small fixed group of parameters, while the values of the other parameters remained unchanged. An attempt has been made to predict the development of the situation in Venezuela for the next five years. A large number of options for forecasts of the development of events were carried out, depending on various combinations of possible measures taken by the government to stabilize the situation. Based on these forecasts, the most effective measures were selected to reduce tensions in the country. The practical value of the study lies in the fact that the created political science and mathematical model can be used to assess the possibility of maintaining order in modern states and to determine the steps necessary to prevent or trigger revolutions, civil wars, etc.

Contesting Narratives on the Situation in Venezuela as a 'Threat to Peace and Security'- Plural Interpretations of the Law of Peace within the UN Security Council

Contesting Narratives on the Situation in Venezuela as a 'Threat to Peace and Security'- Plural Interpretations of the Law of Peace within the UN Security Council

Venezuela: to be or not to be

The article deals with the most crucial components of the current political and institutional crisis in Venezuela. A brief historical deflection into the events of 1989-2020 was made, which indicate, among other things, deep-seated left-wing political views and feelings amidst the majority of the population. This situation serves as a solid platform for strengthening the role of the ruling PSUV party and the present head of State, N. Maduro, in the country’s domestic politics. The political and institutional crisis in the above-mentioned oil-rich South American country has expanded sharply, after being elected Juan Guaidó, a representative of the opposition party VP («People’s Will») as a Chairman of the National Assembly on January 5, 2019. He challenged the prevailing President, declaring himself as the Acting head of State just on January 23, 2019. In this context, the key social and economic aftermaths of the crisis in present-day Venezuela are revealed, in particular, such as the GDP contraction, hyperinflation, growth of the population living in extreme economic poverty, an increase of Venezuelans forced to leave the country due to, above all, obvious signs of a humanitarian crisis. Deepening of the Venezuelan society in destructive processes, escalating of the political debates at the level of parties’ leaders, a lack of the transparent discussion in the public arena concerning the country’s future, to be a necessary condition for realizing the citizen’s rights to democratic choice, appear as consequences of the failure of Guaidó’s strategy. It was built in particular on the desired, but not achieved cessation the usurpation of power by Maduro. The postures of the main international players (USA, EU, OAS, «Lima Group», International Contact Group) are outlined with regard to the assessments of the domestic situation in Venezuela and suggestions for resolving the political crisis and restoring democracy in this country, in particular via introducing sanctions against Venezuelan officials and legal entities, as well as establishing a constructive dialogue between Maduro and the opposition. The main items of Ukraine’s official position on the «Venezuelan issue» had also been notified. In a nutshell, a conclusion is made that for a certain category of Ukrainian voters and for the majority of Venezuelans, despite the obvious differences, the issue of the public administration model remains rhetorical, authoritative, as an outcome of the improvement of democratization, or authoritarian one.

Populism in Venezuela: The Nature of Chavismo

The situation in Venezuela is spinning out of control. The economy is shriveling at double-digit rates, corruption is generalized, and the nightmare of hyperinflation has returned with a vengeance. What happened? The difficulties suffered during the Chavismo era were predictable consequences of the policy choices of the past six decades. These policy choices led to the populist principles underlying Chavismo, which prioritizes the struggle against individual poverty and social exclusion at the expense of institutionalization and fiscal discipline.

The European Union’s Reaction to the Venezuelan Migration Crisis

<p>El objetivo principal de este artículo es analizar las acciones emprendidas por la Unión Europea (UE) como una reacción a la crisis política y económica que ha causado un éxodo masivo de ciudadanos venezolanos en los últimos años (desde 2015) y, en particular, tras las últimas elecciones presidenciales. La situación crítica actual en Venezuela se describirá, primero, presentando los antecedentes políticos y luego describiendo el panorama general de la economía venezolana y las dificultades que llevaron a este movimiento migratorio sin precedentes. Partiendo de la hipótesis de que la intervención de la UE está en consonancia con sus aspiraciones de ser un actor global, la segunda parte del artículo analiza las medidas tanto políticas como financieras emprendidas por diversas instituciones europeas para ayudar a mitigar esta crisis humanitaria.</p>

Venezuela: Political Confrontation and the World Community

The paper examines a complex web of domestic and external issues which have both provoked a systemic crisis in Venezuela and, at the same time, determined its specificity in comparison with the wave of protests sweeping across Latin America in 2019.The authors conclude that the escalation of the conflict in Venezuela was caused not only by the standoff between the legislative and the executive branches of the government, but also by the split of the whole society into proponents and opponents of ‘socialism of the 21st century’. The contradictions have led to the formation of the parallel branches of power: two presidents, two parliaments and two supreme courts (one of them in exile) which de facto coexist in the country and each claims exclusive rights and legitimacy.The authors also stress that the situation in Venezuela has obvious regional consequences. The miscalculations of the incumbent president were used in election campaigns in other Latin American countries and became one of the reasons for the defeat of left candidates, the subsequent ‘right drift’ leading to the isolation of the republic. The new political landscape has also affected the architecture of integration associations, which failed to develop a unified position toward the Bolivarian regime.Furthermore, in a current heightened state of international tensions Venezuela has turned into a theatre of international rivalry and conflict involving all the key subjects of world politics. The United States, China, Russia and the European Union compete for the energy resources of the country and pursue their own strategic interests. The inability or unwillingness of external forces to reach compromise and to bring the parties to the negotiating table can pose a threat to peace and international security.As a result, Venezuela has become one of the most turbulent countries in the region. At the same time, the repeated outbursts of protest waves are significantly different from popular uprisings in other Latin American states. In the worst-case scenario, a constantly worsening situation may result in a social explosion which threatens to make the Bolivarian Republic another hot spot of the planet.

THE EVOLUTION OF BILATERAL RELATIONS BETWEEN THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS THE BOLIVARIAN REPUBLIC OF VENEZUELA IN THE EARLY 21ST CENTURY

In the early 21st century, the Latin American region was one of the essential vectors of Belarusian foreign policy. The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela was noted for being the first country of Latin America which established close ties with the Republic of Belarus. The purpose of the article is to study the dynamics of the bilateral relations between Belarus and Venezuela at the present time, to determine the peculiarities of the cooperation between the states, and to identify the factors which affect the interrelation between the countries. The theoretical and methodological base of the research includes the following methods: analysis, synthesis, chronological, predictive and event analysis, etc. The paper contains the analysis of the evolution of Belarusian-Venezuelan relations at the present time. In particular, the authors study the progress of the relations between the countries and preform the complex analysis of their trade and economic cooperation, indicate the key top-level meetings which had a substantial impact on the development of the partnership, examine the legislation which was the starting point for establishing collaboration and partnership. Moreover, the authors found that the top-priority directions of Belarusian-Venezuelan relations were energy industry, construction, and agriculture as well as science and technology. The article stresses that the years 2007 – 2012 were the pinnacle of the bilateral relations intensity, preceding the gradual decline and the factual freeze of a series of projects, which is attributed to the political situation in Venezuela. The active dialogue between the states was renewed only in January 2019, yet no transition to the active phase of the cooperation can be observed. The authors concluded that in the present circumstances of its foreign policy, Belarus considers Venezuela, as well as the rest of Latin American countries, as the states of so-called “far arc,” prioritizing the development of the ties with the Russian Federation within the framework of CIS and the Eurasian Economic Community. Furthermore, Belarus’s support for N. Maduro can cause complication and worsening of relations between the country if H. Guaido wins in the Venezuelan internal conflict. Therefore, it is highly improbable that any significant progress in the bilateral cooperation between the states will be made before the Venezuelan internal political crisis is resolved.

Відносини США-Венесуела на сучасному етапі: геополітичний вимір

Relations with Venezuela play a significant role in the US policy towards Latin America. Venezuela is an important resource state and a promising sales market, therefore it attracts the attention not only of the United States, but also of other important geopolitical players such as the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China, which view the situation in Venezuela as an opportunity to challenge the United States and to advance their regional interests in Central and Eastern Europe and the South China Sea and Taiwan, respectively. Therefore, the crisis that has developed in Venezuela is acquiring geopolitical significance, because the state is becoming an area of confrontation between the leading powers. The objective of the article is to study and analyze the geopolitical dimension of bilateral relations between the United States and Venezuela at the current phase and find out how these relations affect the geopolitical situation on the regional and global scale, as well as predict possible scenarios for their further development. The article provides an analysis of the American-Venezuelan political and economic relations at the point and concludes that the United States have imposed a number of sanctions and restrictions that put significant pressure on the Venezuelan economy. Having studied the role and position of the United States in resolving the Venezuelan crisis, the authors have indicated that the US support J. Guaido and are working on a plan to resolve the political crisis. The study also identifies the role of third parties in relations between states, in particular the strategy of the Russian Federation regarding the Venezuelan crisis. Attention is also focused on the fact that the events in Venezuela caused the migration crisis – a significant geopolitical problem and requires the attention of not only the United States, but also the world community. Taking into account the geopolitical interests of the United States in Venezuela and concerns about the emergence of global geopolitical players in the state, the most favorable way for the United States would be to strengthen its role in the negotiation process to resolve the Venezuelan crisis, as well as join coordinated actions with the Lima Group.

Venezuela and its Neighbors: The Discursive Struggle for Latin America

Over the past decade, Venezuela has entered into a deep recession, which has resulted in millions migrating abroad. In February of 2019, the United States and its allies recognized the interim government of Juan Guaidó, creating a standoff with the Chavista government of Nicolás Maduro. This article conducts a nuanced analysis of the situation in Venezuela across multiple levels as it problematizes our ontological understanding of individuals, states, and international system. Through a post-structuralist approach to security, I argue that individuals have been portrayed in contradictory humanitarian discourses as a means of advancing particular political interests. Furthermore, I critically analyze the role of space, time, and multilateralism, and their subsequent effects for 21stcentury global order.

Grand Corruption and the International Criminal Court in the ‘Venezuela Situation’

Abstract Venezuela’s ongoing crisis has resulted in the first-ever joint request from states parties to the International Criminal Court (ICC) to open a preliminary examination. The evidence presented until now of crimes against humanity focuses on attacks on political opposition and demonstrators. We contend that the situation in Venezuela is not fully comprehensible, and the referral falls short, without the use of the lens of grand corruption. We describe what we mean by ‘grand corruption’, how it has corroded Venezuela, and why grand corruption and the atrocities are connected. We explain how every step of the preliminary examination process is better understood if a corruption-infused analysis is brought to bear upon it. We then turn to some caveats and limiting considerations. Finally, we draw some implications for other, increasingly common, situations where grave violations of international criminal law take place because of, and are maintained by, systems of kleptocracy.

Notes from the Editors, June 2019

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 The situation in Venezuela has become extremely dire due to Washington's heightened economic warfare, its continuing attempts to engineer a political coup, and its growing threats of massive military intervention—all aimed at bringing down the Bolivarian Republic. The recent seizure of Venezuelan oil assets in the United States and its gold reserves in British banks, as well as the sanctioning of Venezuelan oil sales, have come on top of a long series of economic sanctions—beginning with the Obama administration and now intensified under Trump's—that constitute nothing less than a modern form of siege warfare, extended to food supplies and medicine. But the Venezuelan Revolution has managed to resist in the face of the economic and political warfare of the most powerful imperialist nation in the world, and the reasons why are to be found in the nature of the Bolivarian Revolution and the Venezuelan people themselves.

The International Criminal Court Interconnection Between International Bodies Venezuela 2019

This article focuses on the current International Criminal Court (ICC) Venezuelan case over fundamental human rights violations and alleged international crimes. I will begin by outlining the situation in Venezuela and the history that led to this state of affairs. It will then review the non-judicial and quasi-judicial activities done in the Venezuelan situation by several international bodies and their inter-relation. Next, the article pays attention to the ICC activities on the Venezuelan case, particularly in its latest standards on timely justice, international cooperation, and budgetary efficiency. Following that, I will give an overview of the institutional international framework focusing on how the interconnection between the disparate international corps could be effective in protecting human rights. Subsequently, I will look into some doctrinal approaches to the legal relationship between international courts and national judiciaries, especially the inoperative ones. I will conclude with the complementarity and subsidiarity principles working in international human rights and international criminal law, especially in the Venezuelan case.

Venezuela, Grand Corruption, and the International Criminal Court

Venezuela’s ongoing crisis has resulted in the first-ever joint request from States Parties to the ICC to open a preliminary examination. The evidence presented until now of crimes against humanity focuses on attacks on political opposition and demonstrators. We contend that the situation in Venezuela is not fully comprehensible, and the referral falls short, without looking through the lens of grand corruption. We describe what we mean by grand corruption and how it has corroded Venezuela. We explain how applying a corruption lens to every step of the preliminary examination process – the existence of crimes against humanity, the unwillingness of local justice systems to operate, the gravity of the harm even with a relatively small number of killings, and the interests of justice – is better understood if a corruption-infused analysis is brought to bear. We then turn to some caveats and limiting considerations. Finally, we draw some implications for other, increasingly common, situations where grave violations of international criminal law take place because of, and maintained by, systems of kleptocracy.

THE CRISIS OF DEMOCRACY AND THE DIFFICULTY OF THE WAYS OF LIBERALISM: THE CAUSES, MECHANISMS AND PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT

Problem setting. In our opinion, the current crisis of democracy should be investigated in the broad context of the mutual influence of democracy and liberalism, the growth of populist tendencies in the world, the strengthening of authoritarianism, the crisis of liberal institutionalism and the complexity of the draft international law, and in connection with the sum of geopolitical factors.Recent research and publications analysis. The scientific literature discusses widely the problems of the modern crisis of democracy. They are at the center ofattention ofwell- known scholars (Irina Denisenko, Mykhailo Trebin, Ihor Polishchuk, Halyna Kuts, Victoria Pohribna, Olena Sakhan, Chantal Mouffe, Steven Levitsky, Lukan A. Way, Jan Zielonka, Larry Diamond, Daniel Ziblatt, Jordan Kyle, Yascha Mounk, Limor Gultchin, Nadia Urbinati).Paper objective. The purpose of this work is to find out where in the modern world the differences between liberalism and democracy begin. The task is to reach understanding of the threats and possible positive aspects of the affirmation ofpopulism, to point out the places and meaningful centers of critical joins, manifestations or «breakthroughs» of perspectives on political processes, values-orientation shifts, institutional changes.Paper main body. The article attempts to study the modern crisis of democracy in a diverse sense, in the broad context of the mutual influence of democracy and liberalism. The problem of growth of populist movements of various character in the world, their meaningful expression, influence on the transformation of democracy, threats to the combination of democracy and liberalism is analyzed. There are tendencies of increasing authoritarianism, deepening the crisis of the liberal model of institutionalism and the whole draft international law. The separate statistical data of international organizations concerning the degree andforms of distribution of populism have been researched, various scientific approaches concerning variants of further development of populist scenarios under conditions of newest geopolitical changes and strategic interests transformations are considered. An attempt was made to designate places and centers for the content of manifestations or critical moments, «breakthroughs» in prospects for political processes, changes in value orientations, institutional changes. to find the best ways and resources for further development. Attention is drawn to the fact that the crisis of democracy arose on the verge of links between the content of liberalism (with its uncertainty about the collective identity of the past and present) and democracy as a process of tolerance to the plurality of interests and opportunities for their legal representation and advocacy. It was emphasized that a change in the development tendency may occur depending on many factors, including readiness for the consolidated solutions of the elites of the modern worldto overcome all threats and find a balance of national-state and world-scale. interests. It is emphasized that the nature of the resolution of the conflict in Venezuela may have an important precedent that will lead to a quick and qualitative change, which can also create a certain trajectory for the future development ofpolitical processes at various levels. It is also noted that one of the centers of concentration trends is the situation with the final decision of the UK on membership in the European Union.Conclusions of the research. In our opinion, the change in the development trend (on monovectorality, the universality of the path, etc., the issue even is not discussed) can occur depending on many factors, including the readiness for the consolidated solutions of the elites of the modern world to overcome all threats andfind ways to balance the aggregate interests between levels of national-state character and world scale. An important position in designating the prospect is how the situation in Venezuela will end: what will be meaningful and in what style - ruptura pactada or armed conflict - may be a meaningful breakthrough of perspective which will mark orientations in the formation of tendencies. But, perhaps, this situation development, by the law of large numbers, will bring chaos to a level absurd with further non-obvious solutions and conflicting scenarios. One way or another, the solution to the conflict of interest in Venezuela and the solution to the issue of Brexit will be followed by a quick qualitative change, which may also set a certain trajectory for future shifts in political processes at different levels.