Sino-US Trade Friction Research Articles

The Influence of Sino-US Trade Friction on the Export Volume of China's High-tech Products

With the rapid development of economy, witnessing the extraordinary progression of the economy, China has ascended as the second largest economy globally, and the gap with developed countries is getting smaller and smaller. For a long time, there has been a huge trade deficit from China to the United States. The United States provoked trade friction on the grounds of trade protectionism, restricting trade with China, high-tech industries being the focus. Employing the difference-in-differences (DID) methodology, this paper scrutinizes the influence of Sino-US trade frictions on the export value of China's high-tech industries, utilizing the export data of China's high-tech industries to the United States spanning from 2012 to 2022. It is found that after the Sino-US trade friction began, China's exports of high-tech products to the United States have declined significantly, which has caused trade destruction effect and trade deflection effect from China to the United States.

Empirical evidence on the impact of the "new round" of Sino-US trade frictions on China's foreign trade industrial policy and high-quality development.

The global attention on industrial policy's effectiveness spans across various sectors, particularly in international trade where the focus is on enhancing the quality of foreign trade, which is crucial to understand how research hotspots and key issues can synergize. We consider the 2018 "new round" of Sino-US trade friction as an external event and analyze panel data from 2009 to 2022 comprising 1141 Chinese A-share listed enterprises. Our empirical research unequivocally demonstrates that industrial policy has significantly propelled China's foreign trade towards high-quality development by 1.8240%. We conducted rigorous tests for robustness, heterogeneity, and endogeneity. Additionally, our results reveal that inhibitory influences arising from industrial policy on total assets or R&D investment attenuate this promotion effect; There exists a diminishing promotion effect between total assets and R&D investment. Our paper provides valuable insights into understanding their logical relationship while offering guidance for enterprises, markets, and governments in overcoming challenges collectively.

Does Sino-US trade friction hurt corporate resilience? Evidence from Chinese enterprises

As the world’s largest foreign trading country, China has faced numerous trade investigations in recent years. We select panel data from China’s manufacturing A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2021 to explore the impact of Sino-US trade friction on corporate resilience and its internal mechanisms. The results show that: (1) The intensification of Sino-US trade friction significantly reduces the resilience of Chinese microenterprises. This conclusion remains robust after a series of tests using PSM-DID and other methods. (2) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the resilience of export enterprises, high-tech enterprises, and enterprises in developed regions are more severely impacted by Sino-US trade friction. (3) Mechanism tests reveal that Sino-US trade friction damages enterprise resilience mainly through three channels: damaging the spirit of entrepreneurs, reducing internal operating profits, and exacerbating external financing constraints. The results provide theoretical and empirical support for understanding the survival effects of microeconomic entities under the impact of Sino-US trade friction.

Digital resilience in the internationalization of small and medium companies: how does it work?

Purpose Digital technologies over time are becoming increasingly pervasive and relatively affordable, finding a large diffusion in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) also for internationalization purposes. However, less is known about the specific mechanisms by which this can be achieved. Specifically, we focus on how SMEs can face the international environment, leveraging digital technologies and thanks to their intellectual capital (IC).Design/methodology/approach We analyze the relationship between digital technologies and the internationalization of SMEs, exploring the mediating role of IC in its three dimensions: human, relational and innovation capital, and assessing the possible moderating effects posed by international institutional conditions, specifically the Sino-US trade frictions. The relationships are tested using a sample of companies listed on China’s A-share Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) from 2010 to 2021.Findings Digital technologies help to internationalize SMEs. However, this positive relationship is affected (mediated) by the presence of an already consolidated IC. In addition, the institutional conditions of the international market, such as the Sino-US trade friction, moderate the components of IC differently. Specifically, the overall mediating effect of human and relational capital is boosted, while this does not happen for innovation capital.Originality/value First, this study contributes to the literature on organizational resilience, especially digital resilience, confirming its validity in the context of internationalization and, in particular, those processes adopted by SMEs. Second, we clarify the mechanisms through which digital technologies exert their impact on the process of internationalization and in particular the prominent necessity of having IC. Third, our conclusions enrich the understanding of how IC components react to turbulence in international markets.

Research on Risk Contagion in ESG Industries: An Information Entropy-Based Network Approach.

Sustainable development is a practical path to optimize industrial structures and enhance investment efficiency. Investigating risk contagion within ESG industries is a crucial step towards reducing systemic risks and fostering the green evolution of the economy. This research constructs ESG industry indices, taking into account the possibility of extreme tail risks, and employs VaR and CoVaR as measures of tail risk. The TENET network approach is integrated to to capture the structural evolution and direction of information flow among ESG industries, employing information entropy to quantify the topological characteristics of the network model, exploring the risk transmission paths and evolution patterns of ESG industries in an extreme tail risk event. Finally, Mantel tests are conducted to examine the existence of significant risk spillover effects between ESG and traditional industries. The research finds strong correlations among ESG industry indices during stock market crash, Sino-US trade frictions, and the COVID-19 pandemic, with industries such as the COAL, CMP, COM, RT, and RE playing key roles in risk transmission within the network, transmitting risks to other industries. Affected by systemic risk, the information entropy of the TENET network significantly decreases, reducing market information uncertainty and leading market participants to adopt more uniform investment strategies, thus diminishing the diversity of market behaviors. ESG industries show resilience in the face of extreme risks, demonstrating a lack of significant risk contagion with traditional industries.

How does trade policy uncertainty affect firms’ pollution emissions? Theory and evidence from China

Abstract The literature investigates trade-environment relationship at the firm level, but does not focus on the environmental effect of trade policy uncertainty. In the context of de-globalization and Sino-US trade friction, trade policy uncertainty significantly increases. How does trade policy uncertainty affect firms’ pollution emissions? In this study, we incorporate energy, pollution, and trade policy uncertainty into Melitz’s (2003) framework and construct a theoretical model to reveal the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and pollution emissions. Then, we employ the event that the USA granted permanent normal trade relationship to China as a quasi natural experiment. We use difference-in-difference-in-difference model and the data of Chinese manufacturing firms for empirical analysis. Our results indicate that the decrease in trade policy uncertainty reduces emission intensity of exporting firms, but has no significant impact on emission levels. Given that these firms do not aggravate emission levels under the condition of expanding output scale, we conclude that the decrease in trade policy uncertainty can improve environmental performance. Mechanism analysis shows an interesting finding that the decrease in trade policy uncertainty reduces emission intensity mainly by improving energy efficiency rather than improving abatement technology and optimizing energy structure. In addition, pollution reductions mainly occur in pollution-intensive and capital-intensive industries as well as coastal regions. Altogether, this study contributes to the literature on trade-environment relationship and trade policy uncertainty.

Financial Distress Early Warning for Chinese Enterprises from a Systemic Risk Perspective: Based on the Adaptive Weighted XGBoost-Bagging Model

This paper aims to tackle the problem of low accuracy in predicting financial distress in Chinese industrial enterprises, attributable to data imbalance and insufficient information. It utilizes annual data on systemic risk indicators and financial metrics of Chinese industrial enterprises listed on the China’s A-share market between 2008 and 2022 to construct the adaptive weighted XGBoost-Bagging model for corporate financial distress prediction. Empirical findings demonstrate that systemic risk indicators possess predictive potential independent of traditional financial information, rendering them valuable non-financial early warning indicators for China’s industrial sector; moreover, they help to enhance the predictive accuracy of various comparative models. The adaptive weighted XGBoost-Bagging model incorporating systemic risk indicators effectively addresses challenges arising from data imbalance and information scarcity, significantly improving the accuracy of financial distress prediction in Chinese industrial enterprises under the 2015 Chinese stock market crash, the Sino-US trade friction, and the COVID-19 epidemic; as such, it can be used as an efficient risk early warning tool for China’s industrial sector.

The Sino-US trade friction would exacerbate global inequalities in achieving SDGs

Trade has given rise to global inequalities in sustainable development, while the occurrence of trade frictions between China and the US has led to changes in the global trade market landscape. Whether these changes will exacerbate disparities in sustainable development between regions remains uncertain. Quantifying the impact of changes in the trade market landscape is of significant importance in accelerating global progress towards sustainable development. Therefore, this article, based on the GTAP 10.0 database and using the GTAP model, calculates the extent to which changes in tax policies affect the global achievement of sustainable development goals (SDGs) by assessing the impact of alterations in trade patterns. The research findings are as follows: (1) The decoupling of China and the US has intensified these inequalities. Economically advanced regions have made significant progress in sustainable development compared to relatively underdeveloped regions, such as the US and Sub-Saharan Africa. (2) Regions closer to China and the US are more affected by changes in trade taxes, with economically advanced regions in close proximity to China and the US benefiting more than those farther away. (3) Environmental aspects of SDGs have shown the lowest growth rates, with marginal variations across different regions. (4) Global inequalities in achieving SDGs primarily stem from inter-regional disparities. Over time, inter-regional inequalities decrease while intra-regional inequalities increase, with underdeveloped regions experiencing higher levels of intra-regional inequality compared to developed regions. The growth in tax rates between China and the US contributes to a comprehensive increase in both inter-regional and intra-regional inequalities. Based on these conclusions, this study aims to provide a scientific basis for promoting global sustainable development and reducing regional disparities in the process.

A Comparative Study on the Influencing Factors of Sino-US Trade Transactions from a Longitudinal Perspective Based on Principal Component Analysis

The restructuring of relations between the two global powers, China and the US, is one of the dominant elements in today's dynamic world. However, in recent years, with the intensification of mutual strategic contradictions, the restructuring of Sino-US economic and trade relations has increasingly become a consensus among all parties. In view of this, this thesis divides the Sino-US trade friction into three stages from 2002 to 2017, from 2018 to 2020 and from 2021 to 2023, and proposes a research model based on the influence factors of China-US trade exchanges based on the principal component analysis under each timeframe. Firstly, 17 tertiary indicators are selected as the influencing factors of China-US trade exchanges, and secondly, the Pearson's coefficient correlation is utilized to screen the indicators. Next, by using principal component analysis, multiple influencing factors were downscaled into 1 and 2 principal components. GDP per capita, the exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar, the amount of Chinese OFDI in the US, and the US import/export surplus (deficit) in trade with China are identified as the crucial factors affecting the US-China trade exchange in the three time periods.

Siquian City’s Exporting of Goods: Competitiveness and Survival Analysis Amidst Challenges

In 2020, in the face of the sudden impact of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, Suqian's economy has withstood the test of the epidemic, showing a good situation of "rapid stabilization and gradual recovery", and the "13th Five-Year Plan" has come to a successful end. In the year of 2020, when the Sino-US trade war has not ended and the new coronavirus epidemic is raging, Suqian's foreign trade can achieve such good results, which is worthy of affirmation. However, while affirming that Suqian can still achieve such excellent results in the export of goods in such a severe situation at home and abroad, we should also see that there are still many shortcomings in the development of Suqian's foreign trade. Based on this, this paper firstly analyzes the current situation of Suqian's goods export from four aspects, such as the scale of goods export, export goods, export trade mode and the export situation of goods in each sector. Secondly, the paper analyzes the existing problems of Suqian's export of goods. The main problems are: the gap between Suqian and southern Jiangsu, the unbalanced development of various sectors, the unreasonable structure of export of goods, etc. Thirdly, from the internal and external environment, this paper analyzes the reasons for these problems in Suqian's goods export. The internal reasons include: inter-regional industrial transfer, insufficient level of industrial development, and insufficient location advantage; The external reasons are as follows: the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, Sino-US trade friction, sluggish international market demand, the impact of international industrial transfer and trade barriers have weakened the competitiveness of Suqian's export goods; Finally, from the two levels of government and enterprises to improve the problems of Suqian goods export countermeasures and conclusions.

Clustering effects and evolution of the global major 10-year government bond market structure: A network perspective

This paper takes the 10-year government bond yields of 40 important economies in the world as the research object, aiming to establish a global major government bond market network based on the graph approach and construct an evaluation system to understand the clustering effects of different economies in some important global financial events and the evolution of market structure. Based on the rich information provided by the minimum spanning tree and planar maximally filtered graph, our empirical research results indicate that economies in the government bond market network exhibit clustering effects due to geographical proximity and similar yield levels. The GIIPS economies in Europe formed a core cluster during the European debt crisis period and the initial stage of the COVID-19 outbreak and formed clustering effects with other high-yield economies. In the initial stage of Sino-US trade friction, the market formed the phenomenon of European-American clusters and Asia-Pacific clusters. We also observed that in the complete research interval from 2010 to 2021, Germany and Netherlands had the strongest centrality, while the two largest economies in the world, the United States and China, also maintained close connections with them in the network structure. Through the interdisciplinary graph network approach, we hope to provide an effective perspective to observe and monitor the operation of the global government bond market.

Analysis of Financial Risks and Stock Price Fluctuations of Enterprises under Sino-US Trade Friction

In August 2017, the US initiated a Section 301 investigation against China’s trade practices, and on March 2018, the Office of the US Trade Representative accused China of unfair trade practices ranging from the forced transfer of technology to Chinese firms and intellectual property theft. For these reasons, the United States continues to impose tariffs on Chinese goods. China followed with a series of counter-measures, which became the beginning of a trade war between the two countries. It has a widespread influence on the global markets, international relations and the stability of national economies. This paper collects the stock price fluctuation and financial risk data of Intel before and after the trade war and makes a comparative analysis of the data. We explore how and when the US Trade War came and was framed. Besides China and USA, is there any other country that has had a substantial positive or negative impact from the US Trade War. Finally, we found that how the trade war affects the stock price and change the financial risk of the firms in China and the USA. According to research findings, the trade war had a negative impact on Internet stock prices and financial risks in both countries.

Development of the Petroleum Trading System and Countermeasures under the Trade Friction Between China and the US

Since 2018, the trade relationship between China and the United States has gradually become tense. Under these circumstances, China has been impacted from many aspects. As one of the world's largest importers of crude oil, the impact of Sino-US trade friction on Chinas oil trade cannot be ignored. This thesis discusses the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China's oil trade system and analyzes the impact on oil trade after the outbreak of the Sino-US trade war, as well as the dilemma and countermeasure analysis brought by the trade war. This thesis begins with the background and causes of the trade friction between China and the United States. Through overviewing the development of China's petroleum trade system, this paper explores the impact of the U.S.-China trade friction on China's oil trading system, the dilemmas posed by the trade war, and proposes countermeasures. These experiences and suggestions have certain guiding significance for promoting the reform and development of China's oil trade system.

The Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on China's Manufacturing Industry

Against the backdrop of rapid economic development and globalization, the trade environment for Chinas manufacturing industry to integrate into the global value chain has undergone changes. The trade frictions between China and the United States have escalated from time to time, and how to face the challenges has become a major issue. Based on the background of trade frictions between China and the United States, this article first introduces the current development status of Chinas manufacturing industry, and then conducts an in-depth analysis of the changes in international and domestic market demand for Chinas manufacturing industry. Secondly, it analyzes the part of the Entity List of the China-United States trade war that affects the Chinese market, and analyzes the impact of Sino-US trade friction on the integration of Chinas manufacturing industry and the global value chain. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for the Chinese manufacturing industry to cope with trade frictions between China and the United States, providing strategies for industry protection and the path to achieve the transition of the manufacturing industry in the global value chain.

Summary of the Impact of Sino Vietnamese Trade on Vietnam's Economic Growth

International trade is an important driving force for a country's economic development. However, with the development of the COVID-19 and Sino US trade frictions, the development of international trade and economic globalization in recent years have faced many challenges. However, the author still need to recognize that economic globalization is still an objective trend in the development of the world economy. At present, ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, and Vietnam, as a member of ASEAN, has climbed to the position of China's sixth largest trading country. At the same time, China is also Vietnam's largest trading partner, and China Vietnam trade has become an important driving force for Vietnam and even China's economic development. At the same time, the establishment of RCEP has injected new vitality into the development of China Vietnam trade. This article analyzes the promoting effect of China Vietnam trade on Vietnam's economic development by studying China's economic transformation, the impact of RCEP, and trade frictions between China and the United States. This article mainly consists of three parts. The first part introduces the current situation of Vietnam's trade, analyzes its main trade objects and trade categories. The second part introduces China's economic transformation, the impact of RCEP, and the promoting effect of trade frictions between China and the United States on Vietnam's economic growth. The third part is a summary and conclusion of the entire article.

China's Economic Rejuvenation Policy Adjustment in the Post-Epidemic Period -- Against the Background of Local Financial Problems, Rapid Aging of Society, and Sino-US Trade Tension

Since China officially lifted the nationwide blockade and entered the post-epidemic era, various problems have gradually surfaced. The real estate industry is suffering, unemployed people have reached a new high, medical insurance reform has been hindered, import and export trade has shrunk, and economic growth has slowed sharply. There are many reasons behind it, but they are all related to three major backgrounds: local financial difficulties, a rapidly aging society, and Sino-US trade frictions. Judging from the current situation, China's economic downturn will not change in the short term. There is an urgent need for a response to the question of how to stop economic decline as much as possible, lessen the burden on the populace, manage this crisis effectively, and use it as a chance to release risks, upgrade industrial capacity, and set the groundwork for a future economic revival. Based on the obtained secondary documents, this paper mainly uses Japan, which has a similar cultural background and economic development process, as a comparison object to study the relevant policies and regulations newly promulgated by the Chinese government in the fields of local debt, social aging, and Sino-US trade frictions. Through the analysis of this paper, the current Chinese government should not continue the active and loose economic policy it adopted after the Reform and Opening in 1978, but rather should weaken government operations, cut spending, loosen market economy restrictions, and eventually reform the economic system.

Economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and the heterogeneity of commodity price fluctuations in China ——an empirical study based on TVP-SV-VAR model

The combination of geopolitical conflicts and economic shocks could cause severe volatility in the global commodity market. Based on the monthly data from June 2006 to March 2023, this paper employs the TVP-SV-VAR model to investigate the time-varying impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and China's geopolitical risk (GPRC) on China's commodities prices (CCPI). The findings reveal that: (1) CCPI can be collectively influenced by EPU and GPRC shocks, with time-varying impulse responses showing notable fluctuations with alternating positive and negative values. The response of CCPI to EPU is more intense than that to GPRC shock after 2019; (2) Under the financial crisis, GPRC has a significantly positive impact on CCPI, while positive responses to global EPU and China's EPU are more pronounced under the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Under the Sino-US trade friction, the responses of CCPI to various shocks are mostly positive, with a continuing positive impact of EPU; (3) The responses of energy prices, agricultural product prices, and non-ferrous metal prices align with that of overall commodity prices. However, under the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the positive impulse responses of non-ferrous metal prices to EPU and GRPC shocks are persistent.

The Impact of Sino-Us Trade Friction on China’s Argo-forest Products: Stylized Facts and Prospect

Sino-US trade friction is a crucial issue in the economic relationship between China and the USA. This paper analyzes how friction influences the bilateral trade of agroforestry products from the perspective of changes in trade volume, using recent-year data. The results show that Sino-US trade friction dissevers and reconstructs the global value chain of agroforestry products. This variation imposes more harm than good on the related global trade pattern. Furthermore, this paper lists and illustrates three measures taken by the Chinese government to deal with the trade friction: expanding the alternative market to meet domestic demand and fill the supply gap, improving the added value to ameliorate the structure of foreign trade and enhancing core competitiveness, and establishing an early warning mechanism to guard against abnormal changes in the international market and increase trade security. Finally, in response to the situation of trade friction, this paper puts forward two politically-sound suggestions that should be adopted by China and the USA for rebuilding a mutually beneficial pattern: negotiating rationally and following the rules of the WTO.

How does home and host-country policy uncertainty affect outward FDI? Firm-level evidence from China.

How the foreign direct investment behavior of enterprises changes in response to the risks and instability of government economic policy changes is a relevant issue which, however, has not been extensively studied yet. Accordingly, this paper establishes a linear probability regression model to study the foreign direct investment behavior of Chinese A-share listed companies in 13 countries between 2003 and 2020 and explores whether multinational companies change their OFDI decisions when the economic policy environment of China and trade-related countries are unstable. A firm heterogeneity analysis and phased discussions were conducted, and a robust conclusion was finally drawn. The results show that (1) China's economic policy uncertainty promotes China's foreign direct investment, while the host country's monetary policy uncertainty inhibits China's foreign direct investment. (2) The foreign direct investment decisions of enterprises are affected not only by the macroeconomic and policy environment of the two trading countries but also by their development characteristics. (3) Sino-US trade frictions and the financial crisis have different effects on China's foreign direct investment.

Connectedness of International Stock Market at Major Public Events: Empirical Study via Dynamic Time Warping-Based Network

Several public events have drawn renewed attention to the connectedness of the international stock market since the financial crisis of 2008. We investigate systemic and regional connectedness among stock markets around the world at major public events by constructing correlation networks for 46 markets based on the dynamic time-warping method. We find that (i) geographic regionalization is typically observed in the stock market network, in which France is dominant, (ii) Europe has the greatest and the Middle East and Africa the least within-region connectedness, (iii) the correlation network structure is highly integrated and compact at major public events, and global events influence the international stock market more significantly than regional events do, and (iv) the importance of China reaches its peak during the era of Sino-US trade friction, showing that public events have enormous impacts on the countries involved.