Single-trial Prediction Research Articles

Prefrontal cortex represents heuristics that shape choice bias and its integration into future behavior

Goal-directed behavior requires integrating sensory information with prior knowledge about the environment. Behavioral biases that arise from these priors could increase positive outcomes when the priors match the true structure of the environment, but mismatches also happen frequently and could cause unfavorable outcomes. Biases that reduce gains and fail to vanish with training indicate fundamental suboptimalities arising from ingrained heuristics of the brain. Here, we report systematic, gain-reducing choice biases in highly trained monkeys performing a motion direction discrimination task where only the current stimulus is behaviorally relevant. The monkey's bias fluctuated at two distinct time scales: slow, spanning tens to hundreds of trials, and fast, arising from choices and outcomes of the most recent trials. Our findings enabled single trial prediction of biases, which influenced the choice especially on trials with weak stimuli. The pre-stimulus activity of neuronal ensembles in the monkey prearcuate gyrus represented these biases as an offsetalong the decision axis in the state space. This offset persisted throughout the stimulus viewing period, when sensory information was integrated, leading to a biased choice. The pre-stimulus representation of history-dependent bias was functionally indistinguishable from the neural representation of upcoming choice before stimulus onset, validating our model of single-trial biases and suggesting that pre-stimulus representation of choice could be fully defined by biases inferred from behavioral history. Our results indicate that the prearcuate gyrus reflects intrinsic heuristics that compute bias signals, as well as the mechanisms that integrate them into the oculomotor decision-making process.

The influence of psychological and cognitive states on error-related negativity evoked during post-stroke rehabilitation movements

BackgroundRecently, error-related negativity (ERN) signals are proposed to develop an assist-as-needed robotic stroke rehabilitation program. Stroke patients’ state-of-mind, such as motivation to participate and active involvement in the rehabilitation program, affects their rate of recovery from motor disability. If the characteristics of the robotic stroke rehabilitation program can be altered based on the state-of-mind of the patients, such that the patients remain engaged in the program, the rate of recovery from their motor disability can be improved. However, before that, it is imperative to understand how the states-of-mind of a participant affect their ERN signal.MethodsThis study aimed to determine the association between the ERN signal and the psychological and cognitive states of the participants. Experiments were conducted on stroke patients, which involved performing a physical rehabilitation exercise and a questionnaire to measure participants' subjective experience on four factors: motivation in participating in the experiment, perceived effort, perceived pressure, awareness of uncompleted exercise trials while performing the rehabilitation exercise. Statistical correlation analysis, EEG time-series and topographical analysis were used to assess the association between the ERN signals and the psychological and cognitive states of the participants.ResultsA strong correlation between the amplitude of the ERN signal and the psychological and cognitive states of the participants was observed, which indicate the possibility of estimating the said states using the amplitudes of the novel ERN signal.ConclusionsThe findings pave the way for the development of an ERN based dynamically adaptive assist-as-needed robotic stroke rehabilitation program of which characteristics can be altered to keep the participants’ motivation, effort, engagement in the rehabilitation program high. In future, the single-trial prediction ability of the novel ERN signals to predict the state-of-mind of stroke patients will be evaluated.

EEG-Based Prediction of Successful Memory Formation During Vocabulary Learning.

Previous Electroencephalography (EEG) and neuroimaging studies have found differences between brain signals for subsequently remembered and forgotten items during learning of items - it has even been shown that single trial prediction of memorization success is possible with a few target items. There has been little attempt, however, in validating the findings in an application-oriented context involving longer test spans with realistic learning materials encompassing more items. Hence, the present study investigates subsequent memory prediction within the application context of foreign-vocabulary learning. We employed an off-line, EEG-based paradigm in which Korean participants without prior German language experience learned 900 German words in paired-associate form. Our results using convolutional neural networks optimized for EEG-signal analysis show that above-chance classification is possible in this context allowing us to predict during learning which of the words would be successfully remembered later.

Single-trial prediction of reaction time variability from MEG brain activity.

Neural activity prior to movement onset contains essential information for predictive assistance for humans using brain-machine-interfaces (BMIs). Even though previous studies successfully predicted different goals for upcoming movements, it is unclear whether non-invasive recording signals contain the information to predict trial-by-trial behavioral variability under the same movement. In this paper, we examined the predictability of subsequent short or long reaction times (RTs) from magnetoencephalography (MEG) signals in a delayed-reach task. The difference in RTs was classified significantly above chance from 550 ms before the go-signal onset using the cortical currents in the premotor cortex. Significantly above-chance classification was performed in the lateral prefrontal and the right inferior parietal cortices at the late stage of the delay period. Thus, inter-trial variability in RTs is predictable information. Our study provides a proof-of-concept of the future development of non-invasive BMIs to prevent delayed movements.

Group-regularized individual prediction: theory and application to pain

Multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) has become an important tool for identifying brain representations of psychological processes and clinical outcomes using fMRI and related methods. Such methods can be used to predict or ‘decode’ psychological states in individual subjects. Single-subject MVPA approaches, however, are limited by the amount and quality of individual-subject data. In spite of higher spatial resolution, predictive accuracy from single-subject data often does not exceed what can be accomplished using coarser, group-level maps, because single-subject patterns are trained on limited amounts of often-noisy data. Here, we present a method that combines population-level priors, in the form of biomarker patterns developed on prior samples, with single-subject MVPA maps to improve single-subject prediction. Theoretical results and simulations motivate a weighting based on the relative variances of biomarker-based prediction—based on population-level predictive maps from prior groups—and individual-subject, cross-validated prediction. Empirical results predicting pain using brain activity on a trial-by-trial basis (single-trial prediction) across 6 studies (N=180 participants) confirm the theoretical predictions. Regularization based on a population-level biomarker—in this case, the Neurologic Pain Signature (NPS)—improved single-subject prediction accuracy compared with idiographic maps based on the individuals' data alone. The regularization scheme that we propose, which we term group-regularized individual prediction (GRIP), can be applied broadly to within-person MVPA-based prediction. We also show how GRIP can be used to evaluate data quality and provide benchmarks for the appropriateness of population-level maps like the NPS for a given individual or study.

Single trial prediction of self-paced reaching directions from EEG signals.

Early detection of movement intention could possibly minimize the delays in the activation of neuroprosthetic devices. As yet, single trial analysis using non-invasive approaches for understanding such movement preparation remains a challenging task. We studied the feasibility of predicting movement directions in self-paced upper limb center-out reaching tasks, i.e., spontaneous movements executed without an external cue that can better reflect natural motor behavior in humans. We reported results of non-invasive electroencephalography (EEG) recorded from mild stroke patients and able-bodied participants. Previous studies have shown that low frequency EEG oscillations are modulated by the intent to move and therefore, can be decoded prior to the movement execution. Motivated by these results, we investigated whether slow cortical potentials (SCPs) preceding movement onset can be used to classify reaching directions and evaluated the performance using 5-fold cross-validation. For able-bodied subjects, we obtained an average decoding accuracy of 76% (chance level of 25%) at 62.5 ms before onset using the amplitude of on-going SCPs with above chance level performances between 875 to 437.5 ms prior to onset. The decoding accuracy for the stroke patients was on average 47% with their paretic arms. Comparison of the decoding accuracy across different frequency ranges (i.e., SCPs, delta, theta, alpha, and gamma) yielded the best accuracy using SCPs filtered between 0.1 to 1 Hz. Across all the subjects, including stroke subjects, the best selected features were obtained mostly from the fronto-parietal regions, hence consistent with previous neurophysiological studies on arm reaching tasks. In summary, we concluded that SCPs allow the possibility of single trial decoding of reaching directions at least 312.5 ms before onset of reach.