Single Hypothesis Test Research Articles

The Influence of Personal Selling and E-Marketing Marketing Communications of Dapurnya Ami UMKM on Consumer Brand Awareness in Banuhampu District, Agam Regency

This study aims to analyze the impact of marketing communication through personal selling on consumer brand awareness in Banuhampu District, Agam Regency. Additionally, this study evaluates the effect of electronic marketing communication (e-marketing) by the micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME) Dapurnya Ami on consumer brand awareness in the area. The research method used is a quantitative approach conducted in Banuhampu District, which consists of seven villages. The sample was selected using proportionate stratified random sampling, purposive sampling, and accidental sampling techniques, with a total of 400 respondents. Data was collected through questionnaires distributed to consumers who are the target market of the MSME Dapurnya Ami. Data analysis was performed using various techniques, including single table analysis, cross-tabulation analysis, and hypothesis testing using Spearman's rho rank. The results show a positive correlation between the personal selling marketing communication of Dapurnya Ami and consumer brand awareness, indicated by r=0.001 and p=0.718. This suggests that the first hypothesis is accepted with a significance level of less than 0.05. Furthermore, the correlation between electronic marketing communication (e-marketing) of Dapurnya Ami and consumer brand awareness is also positive, with r=0.001 and p=0.836, indicating that the second hypothesis is accepted at the same significance level

Reusing Natural Experiments

ABSTRACTAfter a natural experiment is first used, other researchers often reuse the setting, examining different outcome variables. We use simulations based on real data to illustrate the multiple hypothesis testing problem that arises when researchers reuse natural experiments. We then provide guidance for future inference based on popular empirical settings including difference‐in‐differences, instrumental variables, and regression discontinuity designs. When we apply our guidance to two extensively studied natural experiments, business combination laws and the Regulation SHO pilot, we find that many results that were statistically significant using single hypothesis testing do not survive corrections for multiple hypothesis testing.

Permutation confidence region for multiple regression and fidelity to asymptotic approximation

The permutation inference distribution (PID) introduced in Wu and Vos (2019), The Journal of Nonparametric Statistics 31(3), 722-742) is extended to the joint PID for multiple regression. The joint PID is used for both hypothesis testing and the construction of confidence regions and its computational burden is similar to that of conducting a single hypothesis test. Asymptotic normality results show that PID confidence regions are asymptotically ellipsoidal and exact. In finite samples, the PID confidence regions can be used to check the fidelity of normal approximations. In some cases, normal theory-based confidence regions may be adjusted to approach nominal confidence errors. Simulation studies and real data applications are used to evaluate inferences obtained from the PID.

Reusing Natural Experiments

<ns3:p>After a natural experiment is first used, other researchers often reuse the setting, examining different outcome variables. We use simulations based on real data to illustrate the multiple hypothesis testing problem that arises when researchers reuse natural experiments. We then provide guidance for future inference based on popular empirical settings including difference-in-differences regressions, instrumental variables regressions, and regression discontinuity designs. When we apply our guidance to two extensively studied natural experiments, business combination laws and the Regulation SHO pilot, we find that many results that were statistically significant using single hypothesis testing do not survive corrections for multiple hypothesis testing.</ns3:p>

Failures to disagree are essential for environmental science to effectively influence policy development.

While environmental science, and ecology in particular, is working to provide better understanding to base sustainable decisions on, the way scientific understanding is developed can at times be detrimental to this cause. Locked‐in debates are often unnecessarily polarised and can compromise any common goals of the opposing camps. The present paper is inspired by a resolved debate from an unrelated field of psychology where Nobel laureate David Kahneman and Garry Klein turned what seemed to be a locked‐in debate into a constructive process for their fields. The present paper is also motivated by previous discourses regarding the role of thresholds in natural systems for management and governance, but its scope of analysis targets the scientific process within complex social‐ecological systems in general. We identified four features of environmental science that appear to predispose for locked‐in debates: (1) The strongly context‐dependent behaviour of ecological systems. (2) The dominant role of single hypothesis testing. (3) The high prominence given to theory demonstration compared investigation. (4) The effect of urgent demands to inform and steer policy. This fertile ground is further cultivated by human psychological aspects as well as the structure of funding and publication systems.

Treatment strategies for reducing early and late recurrence of colonic diverticular bleeding based on stigmata of recent hemorrhage: a large multicenter study

Treatment strategies for colonic diverticular bleeding (CDB) based on stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH) remain unstandardized, and no large studies have evaluated their effectiveness. We sought to identify the best strategy among combinations of SRH identification and endoscopic treatment strategies. We retrospectively analyzed 5823 CDB patients who underwent colonoscopy at 49 hospitals throughout Japan (CODE-BLUE J-Study). Three strategies were compared: find SRH (definitive CDB) and treat endoscopically, find SRH (definitive CDB) and treat conservatively, and without finding SRH (presumptive CDB) treat conservatively. In conducting pairwise comparisons of outcomes in these groups, we used propensity score-matching analysis to balance baseline characteristics between the groups being compared. Both early and late recurrent bleeding rates were significantly lower in patients with definitive CDB treated endoscopically than in those with presumptive CDB treated conservatively (<30 days, 19.6% vs 26.0% [P< .001];<365 days, 33.7% vs 41.6% [P< .001], respectively). In patients with definitive CDB, the early recurrent bleeding rate was significantly lower in those treated endoscopically than in those treated conservatively (17.4% vs 26.7% [P= .038] for a single test of hypothesis; however, correction for multiple testing of data removed this significance). The late recurrent bleeding rate was also lower, but not significantly, in those treated endoscopically (32.0% vs 36.1%, P= .426). Definitive CDB treated endoscopically showed significantly lower early and late recurrent bleeding rates than when treated conservatively in cases of SRH with active bleeding, nonactive bleeding, and in the right-sided colon but not left-sided colon. Treating definitive CDB endoscopically was most effective in reducing recurrent bleeding over the short and long term, compared with not treating definitive CDB or presumptive CDB. Physicians should endeavor to find and treat SRH for suspected CDB.

Improvements of Statistical Learning Skills Allow Older Children to Go Beyond Single-Hypothesis Testing When Learning Words.

Children learn words in ambiguous situations, where multiple objects can potentially be referents for a new word. Yet, researchers debate whether children maintain a single word-object hypothesis - and revise it if falsified by later information - or whether children establish a network of word-object associations whose relative strengths are modulated with experience. To address this issue, we presented 4- to 12-year-old children with sets of mutual exclusivity (fast-mapping) trials: offering them with obvious initial hypotheses (that the novel object is the referent for the novel word). We observe that children aged six years and above, despite showing a novelty bias and retaining this novel word - novel object association, also formed an association between the novel word and the name-known object, thereby suggesting that older children attend to more than one word-object association, in a manner similar to associative learning. We discuss our findings in the context of competing theoretical accounts related to word learning.

Semantic and cognitive tools to aid statistical science: replace confidence and significance by compatibility and surprise

BackgroundResearchers often misinterpret and misrepresent statistical outputs. This abuse has led to a large literature on modification or replacement of testing thresholds and P-values with confidence intervals, Bayes factors, and other devices. Because the core problems appear cognitive rather than statistical, we review some simple methods to aid researchers in interpreting statistical outputs. These methods emphasize logical and information concepts over probability, and thus may be more robust to common misinterpretations than are traditional descriptions.MethodsWe use the Shannon transform of the P-value p, also known as the binary surprisal or S-value s = −log2(p), to provide a measure of the information supplied by the testing procedure, and to help calibrate intuitions against simple physical experiments like coin tossing. We also use tables or graphs of test statistics for alternative hypotheses, and interval estimates for different percentile levels, to thwart fallacies arising from arbitrary dichotomies. Finally, we reinterpret P-values and interval estimates in unconditional terms, which describe compatibility of data with the entire set of analysis assumptions. We illustrate these methods with a reanalysis of data from an existing record-based cohort study.ConclusionsIn line with other recent recommendations, we advise that teaching materials and research reports discuss P-values as measures of compatibility rather than significance, compute P-values for alternative hypotheses whenever they are computed for null hypotheses, and interpret interval estimates as showing values of high compatibility with data, rather than regions of confidence.Our recommendations emphasize cognitive devices for displaying the compatibility of the observed data with various hypotheses of interest, rather than focusing on single hypothesis tests or interval estimates. We believe these simple reforms are well worth the minor effort they require.

User-Specified General-to-Specific and Indicator Saturation Methods

General-to-Specific (GETS) modelling provides a comprehensive, systematic and cumulative approach to modelling that is ideally suited for conditional forecasting and counterfactual analysis, whereas Indicator Saturation (ISAT) is a powerful and flexible approach to the detection and estimation of structural breaks (e.g. changes in parameters), and to the detection of outliers. To these ends, multi-path backwards elimination, single and multiple hypothesis tests on the coefficients, diagnostics tests and goodness-of-fit measures are combined to produce a parsimonious final model. In many situations a specific model or estimator is needed, a specific set of diagnostics tests may be required, or a specific fit criterion is preferred. In these situations, if the combination of estimator/model, diagnostics tests and fit criterion is not offered by publicly available software, then the implementation of user-specified GETS and ISAT methods puts a large programming-burden on the user. Generic functions and procedures that facilitate the implementation of user-specified GETS and ISAT methods for specific problems can therefore be of great benefit. The R package gets, version 0.20 (September 2019), is the first software - both inside and outside the R universe - to provide a complete set of facilities for user-specified GETS and ISAT methods: User-specified model/estimator, user-specified diagnostics and user-specified goodness-of-fit criteria. The aim of this article is to illustrate how user-specified GETS and ISAT methods can be implemented. The aim of this article is to illustrate how user-specified GETS and ISAT methods can be implemented with the R package gets.

Bayes Factor with Lindley Paradox and Tow Standard Methods in Model

For any statistical analysis, Model selection is necessary and required. In many cases of selection, Bayes factor is one of the important basic elements. For the unilateral hypothesis testing problem, we extend the harmony of frequency and Bayesian evidence to the generalized p-value of unilateral hypothesis testing problem, and study the harmony of generalized P-value and posterior probability of original hypothesis. For the problem of single point hypothesis testing, the posterior probability of the Bayes evidence under the traditional Bayes testing method, that is, the Bayes factor or the single point original hypothesis is established, is analyzed, a phenomenon known as the Lindley paradox, which is at odds with the classical frequency evidence of p-value. At this point, many statisticians have been worked for this from both frequentist and Bayesian perspective. In this paper, I am going to focus on Bayesian approach to model selection, starting from Bayes factors and going within Lindley Paradox, which also briefly talks about partial and fractional Bayes factor. Trying to use a simple way to consider this paradox is the thing what I want to do in the paper. On the other hand, a detailed derivation of BIC and AIC is given in Section 4. The guiding principle of selecting the optimal model is to investigate from two aspects: one is to maximize the likelihood function, the other is to minimize the number of unknown parameters in the model. The larger the likelihood function value, the better the model fitting, but we can not simply measure the model fitting accuracy, which leads to more and more unknown parameters in the model, and the model that becomes more and more complex would have caused an overmatch. Therefore, a good model should be the combination of the fitting accuracy and the number of unknown parameters to optimize the configuration.

Reusing Natural Experiments

After a natural experiment is first used, other researchers often reuse the setting, examining different outcome variables. We use simulations based on real data to illustrate the multiple hypothesis testing problem that arises when researchers reuse natural experiments. We then provide guidance for future inference based on popular empirical settings including difference-in-differences regressions, instrumental variables regressions, and regression discontinuity designs. When we apply our guidance to two extensively studied natural experiments, business combination laws and the Regulation SHO pilot, we find that many results that were statistically significant using single hypothesis testing do not survive corrections for multiple hypothesis testing.

Timing of indomethacin suppositories for the prevention of post-ERCP pancreatitis – from the pathomechanism to the optimal therapy. Protocol of a randomized, double-blind, two-armed, non-inferiority study (PEPPER)

Our previous study suggested that a combination of ulinastatin and risperidone reduced post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) compared with ulinastatin alone.The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of risperidone alone for prevention of PEP.A multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial.Two academic hospitals and 5 referral hospitals in Tokyo and Saitama, Japan.Patients undergoing therapeutic or interventional-diagnostic ERCP.The patients were randomized to receive 2 mg of oral risperidone or oral placebo at 0.5 to 2 hours before ERCP.The primary endpoint was the incidence of PEP. Secondary endpoints were the incidence of hyperenzymemia and enzyme levels (amylase, pancreatic amylase, lipase). Risk factors for PEP were evaluated.We initially enrolled 500 patients in the study (250 in the risperidone group and 250 in the placebo group), but 17 (11 in the risperidone and 6 in the placebo group) were excluded after randomization. PEP developed in 24 patients (10.0%) in the risperidone group and 21 patients (8.6%) in the placebo group (P = .587). Serum amylase levels at 3 hours after ERCP were lower in the risperidone group (P = .007 in a single test of hypothesis, significance removed by Bonferroni correction for multiple testing). In multivariate analysis, a small papilla of Vater, total procedure time ≥40 minutes, and stenosis of the intrahepatic duct were significantly associated with PEP.Multiplicity of study centers and a relatively wide time range of drug administration time.Risperidone did not show a benefit in prevention of PEP in this trial. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT000004592.)

Asymptotic Properties of Maximum Quasi-Likelihood Estimators in Generalized Linear Models with Diverging Number of Covariates

In this paper, for the generalized linear models (GLMs) with diverging number of covariates, the asymptotic properties of maximum quasi-likelihood estimators (MQLEs) under some regular conditions are developed. The existence, weak convergence and the rate of convergence and asymptotic normality of linear combination of MQLEs and asymptotic distribution of single linear hypothesis test statistics are presented. The results are illustrated by Monte-Carlo simulations.

The pinnacle of statistics education is not a single hypothesis test

The pinnacle of statistics education is not a single hypothesis test

Abstract 630: Detection of copy number variations in breast cancer using targeted sequencing without normal tissue controls

Abstract Cancer exome sequencing including recent studies of TCGA and ICGC consortia revealed the landscapes of somatic mutations and copy number variations (CNVs) in multiple cancers. CNVs represent an important genetic change that may contribute to tumorigenesis, tumor growth and metastatic spread. HER2 amplification in breast cancer represents a paradigm of a molecular target and personalized cancer therapy. As part of the breast cancer routine diagnostics, HER2 status is determined by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and subsequent in situ hybridization (ISH) when necessary. HER2 breast cancer patients are known to benefit from blockage of HER2 signaling, for example by treatment with the therapeutic antibody trastuzumab. A large cohort of frozen breast cancer tissues (184 patients) was investigated by semiconductor sequencing. A customer-designed panel of 154 amplicons was used including regions of mutations and CNVs known to be recurrent from preceding exome-wide studies. After sample-wise normalization, a null distribution of copy numbers was estimated using outlier robust statistics and the sequencing data of all patients and amplicons. Significance of gene amplifications was assessed by comparison with the null distribution leading to cutoff values of 2.77 copies for single hypothesis testing (p &amp;lt; 0.05) and 3.59 copies for multiple hypotheses testing (p &amp;lt; 0.05/154). First, we evaluated the accuracy of targeted sequencing and the new algorithm compared to the gold standard of IHC and ISH. The amplicon panel included three regions of HER2 located in exons 19, 20 and 21. Based on the target region in exon 20 and the single hypothesis cutoff, we obtained a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 95% in the detection of HER2 amplifications. Correlations between the copy number estimated from the coverage of exon 19, 20 and 21 where high (Pearson correlation R = 0.92, 0.96 and 0.97). Second, we did an unsupervised search for gene amplifications with the 154 amplicons of the sequencing panel using the multiple testing method. We detected gene amplifications that were abundant in at least 8 patients (&amp;gt;5% of the cohort) in the following 17 genes: CCND1, CDH1, CDKN1B, ERBB2, FGFR1, GRB7, MDM2, MED1, MYC, PAK1, PIK3CA, PIK3R3, RB1, STARD3, TBL1XR1, TSHZ2 and ZNF703. In conclusion, the new algorithm allowed detecting of CNVs from semiconductor sequencing without the need of normal tissue controls. Thus, using targeted sequencing, CNV detection and simple somatic mutation detection can be integrated in an easy and efficient manner. Citation Format: Jan Budczies, Volker Endris, Nikola Bangemann, Thomas Wolf, Jens-Uwe Blohmer, Abrecht Stenzinger, Manfred Dietel, Wilko Weichert, Carsten Denkert. Detection of copy number variations in breast cancer using targeted sequencing without normal tissue controls. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 106th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2015 Apr 18-22; Philadelphia, PA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(15 Suppl):Abstract nr 630. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2015-630

The effects of species properties and community context on establishment success

Understanding whether factors important for species establishment in a local community are predictable or context‐ dependent is key for determining the features that affect community stability and species coexistence. A major challenge for scientists addressing this question is that natural systems are complex. This makes it difficult to test multiple properties of species and features of the resident community simultaneously to determine what factors are most important for establishment success of a species into a novel community. We used the model aquatic system inside the leaves of the pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea to test whether properties predicted to be important for establishment success of a species (initial density, competitive ability, body size) are generalizable across communities varying in resource availability and the presence of a top predator. For intermediate trophic‐level species, we found that both competitive dominance and initial density were important for establishment success. Although a less competitive species was also able to successfully establish in the communities, high resource availability and high initial density were important for its establishment success. Body size of the introduced species, although correlated with competitive ability, was not an important characteristic for establishment success. The presence of a top predator significantly decreased the densities of the introduced species when resources were low, but did not completely inhibit establishment success. The relative importance of each of these factors, and interactions among them, could not have been discerned through single hypothesis testing. The results from this work show the need for detailed experiments that focus on combinations of factors to understand if mechanisms determining community assembly and species establishment can be generalized across systems.

Cross-situational word learning in the right situations.

Upon hearing a novel word, language learners must identify its correct meaning from a diverse set of situationally relevant options. Such referential ambiguity could be reduced through repetitive exposure to the novel word across diverging learning situations, a learning mechanism referred to as cross-situational learning. Previous research has focused on the amount of information learners carry over from 1 learning instance to the next. In the present article, we investigate how context can modulate the learning strategy and its efficiency. Results from 4 cross-situational learning experiments with adults suggest the following: (a) Learners encode more than the specific hypotheses they form about the meaning of a word, providing evidence against the recent view referred to as single hypothesis testing. (b) Learning is faster when learning situations consistently contain members from a given group, regardless of whether this group is a semantically coherent group (e.g., animals) or induced through repetition (objects being presented together repetitively, just like a fork and a door may occur together repetitively in a kitchen). (c) Learners are subject to memory illusions, in a way that suggests that the learning situation itself appears to be encoded in memory during learning. Overall, our findings demonstrate that realistic contexts (such as the situation in which a given word has occurred; e.g., in the zoo or in the kitchen) help learners retrieve or discard potential referents for a word, because such contexts can be memorized and associated with a to-be-learned word.

Multiple Testing in Economics

We propose a new way to conduct multiple hypothesis testing in economics research. Our framework allows for correlation among tests and incomplete data, both of which are prevalent in economic meta-analysis. Our simulations show that that our method is able to produce the correct p-value cutoff that controls the overall rate of false discoveries at a prespecified level of significance. The single hypothesis test, as used by most researchers, leads to too many false discoveries and should be avoided.

Results of the Tokyo Trial of Prevention of Post-ERCP Pancreatitis with Risperidone-2: a multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial

Our previous study suggested that a combination of ulinastatin and risperidone reduced post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) compared with ulinastatin alone. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of risperidone alone for prevention of PEP. A multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial. Two academic hospitals and 5 referral hospitals in Tokyo and Saitama, Japan. Patients undergoing therapeutic or interventional-diagnostic ERCP. The patients were randomized to receive 2 mg of oral risperidone or oral placebo at 0.5 to 2 hours before ERCP. The primary endpoint was the incidence of PEP. Secondary endpoints were the incidence of hyperenzymemia and enzyme levels (amylase, pancreatic amylase, lipase). Risk factors for PEP were evaluated. We initially enrolled 500 patients in the study (250 in the risperidone group and 250 in the placebo group), but 17 (11 in the risperidone and 6 in the placebo group) were excluded after randomization. PEP developed in 24 patients (10.0%) in the risperidone group and 21 patients (8.6%) in the placebo group (P = .587). Serum amylase levels at 3 hours after ERCP were lower in the risperidone group (P = .007 in a single test of hypothesis, significance removed by Bonferroni correction for multiple testing). In multivariate analysis, a small papilla of Vater, total procedure time ≥40 minutes, and stenosis of the intrahepatic duct were significantly associated with PEP. Multiplicity of study centers and a relatively wide time range of drug administration time. Risperidone did not show a benefit in prevention of PEP in this trial. ( NCT000004592.).

The optimal power puzzle: scrutiny of the monotone likelihood ratio assumption in multiple testing.

In single hypothesis testing, power is a non-decreasing function of type I error rate; hence it is desirable to test at the nominal level exactly to achieve optimal power. The puzzle lies in the fact that for multiple testing, under the false discovery rate paradigm, such a monotonic relationship may not hold. In particular, exact false discovery rate control may lead to a less powerful testing procedure if a test statistic fails to fulfil the monotone likelihood ratio condition. In this article, we identify different scenarios wherein the condition fails and give caveats for conducting multiple testing in practical settings.