Simultaneous Local Election Research Articles

여론조사에서 무응답 대체를 통한 선거 결과 예측

In the results of the election polls, the candidates' approval ratings are not only a major concern of the people, but also an important factor in establishing the election strategy of the party concerned. However, if there is an inaccurate or distorted result of the election poll, it can cause a big problem because of its influence, and the controversy about the poll often arises. There are many cases in which the actual election results are different from the results of the polls, and political parties and research institutes, which are related to the polls, are making efforts to improve the accuracy of the election forecasts. The purpose of this study is to improve the accuracy of election prediction by replacing non-response through machine learning algorithm using the survey data of the 20th Presidential Election, the 2021 Busan Mayor By-election, and the 8th National Simultaneous Local Election (Busan Metropolitan City, Nam-gu, Gimhae Mayor). For this purpose, first, the data excluding the non-response (I do not know/don't know) was separated into train data and the data selected as non-response (I do not know/don't know) was separated into test data. Second, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM methods were applied, and only the top three questions were used by deriving the importance of questions when predicting candidates through train data. Third, through the model learned based on the train data, the non-response of the test data was replaced with the response of one candidate, and the corresponding data and the train data were combined to calculate the percentage of votes for each candidate. As a result of comparing the actual election results with the percentage of votes for each candidate by replacing the non-response, it was confirmed that the Random Forest method is suitable for the model for improving the accuracy of election prediction through non-response substitution.

Vernacular Politics Revisited: The Role of Ulama in the 2020 Simultaneous Local Elections in Indonesia

Vernacular Politics Revisited: The Role of Ulama in the 2020 Simultaneous Local Elections in Indonesia

Dynamics of Personalization of Political Parties in the Recruitment of Prospective Candidates for Mayor of Solo 2020 (Case Study of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P))

This study aims to explain the dynamics that occur in the recruitment process for candidates for Mayor of Solo in the 2020 simultaneous local elections. These dynamics are influenced by personalized action within the party characterized by the dominance of the general chairperson and the weakness of the party organization. The method used in this research is descriptive qualitative using primary and secondary data including interviews, documentation, and literature study. The results obtained from this study indicate that there are problems in the recruitment function for candidates for Mayor of Solo, including intervention from the Party Chairperson as a result of his strong domination in political parties so that the party structure at the local level, namely the PDI-P DPC Surakarta City cannot implementing a bottom-up scheme by nominating candidates based on the election results. The weakness of party institutions can also be seen in party regulations regarding the recruitment of regional heads which are not implemented properly, not reflected in the principles of democracy within the party, the lack of independence of the party structure at the local level, to the pragmatism of the party by nominating a solo mayoral candidate based on the candidate's social background. is the son of the son of President Joko Widodo who is currently in office.

Oligarchy and Elite Politics in The 2020 Local Election: Short Review

This article analyzes the political practices of oligarchy and elite politics in the context of the 2020 local elections in Indonesia. Despite the high number of Covid-19 cases, Indonesia continued to hold simultaneous local elections, making the regional elections even more controversial. The significance of this research lies in understanding the existence of oligarchic and elite political practices in Indonesia's election administration. The article employs a qualitative method using desk study by analyzing relevant literature to answer the research problem. The novelty of this research is in providing an analysis of the political practices of oligarchy and elite politics in the context of the 2020 local election. The findings indicate that the 2020 local elections were characterized by the re-strengthening of kinship politics, high single candidates, and the involvement of actors with oligarchic interests. These are indications that oligarchic and elite politics are returning to dominate election administration in Indonesia. The implications of this research are essential for understanding the challenges of democratization in Indonesia and the need to strengthen democratic institutions and practices.

GAGASAN PENATAAN PILKADA CALON TUNGGAL

The existence of single candidate in the 2015-2020 simultaneous Local Election (Pilkada) period tends to dramatically increase along with the rise of the political parties coalition supporting single candidate, thus closing the opportunity for other candidates to advance through a political party. In the practice of organizing single-candidate elections, several cases have been exposed to the public, which suggests that there were problems before the single candidate was decided. This study describes the various phenomena that arise in the organization of single-candidate elections and formulates appropriate structuring strategies. This research was normative and sociological legal research. Normatively using a statute approach and case approach, while sociologically using a qualitative approach. Several phenomena were found, namely; the increasing support of political parties for single candidate is due to the pragmatic political parties that are oriented towards victory and instant profit (political dowry), resulting in a large financial burden that must be prepared by prospective candidates. This condition is exceptionally favorable for candidates with sufficient financial capabilities which then motivates political parties to smooth the victory. Appropriate structuring measures are needed, including; first, the need to reduce the nomination threshold for political parties. Second, organizing party coalitions both related to the time of formation and the maximum limit of the coalition, and third, tightening the eligibility requirements for single candidate by considering the level of voter turnout.

Regional Heads' Discretionary Spending in Local Election

Various research in several nations showed that incumbent regional leader who ran for a second term exploited their budgetary authority to win re-election. The budget components used are primarily expenditures on people and capital. The purpose of this study was to examine whether discretionary spending on social assistance and capital expenditure occurred during Indonesia's simultaneous local elections in which the incumbent was re-run for a second term. We used panel data regression analysis to examine district-city leaders' 2017 and 2018 simultaneous local elections. The sample of 504 municipal districts showed empirical evidence that the incumbent increased spending on social assistance, equipment and machinery, and road irrigation and network maintenance. This finding is consistent with prior research indicating the incidence of discretionary spending in incumbent led local elections.

The Implementation of Simultaneous Local Elections: An Overview of Constitutional Law and Its Impact on Democracy in Indonesia

This study aims to examine and analyze the execution of Simultaneous Local Elections within the study of constitutional law and its impact on democracy in Indonesia. This study uses normative legal research with the statute and conceptual approaches. The collected legal material is then qualitatively analyzed to describe the problem and answer study purposes. The results show that implementing the 2024 Simultaneous Local Elections presents some crucial impacts on the Local Elections held in 2017, 2018, and 2020. The first impact, related to the 2017 and 2018 Local Elections, involves the ASN as Interim Regional Heads during the transition toward the 2024 Simultaneous Local Elections. However, this provision reflects principles of accountability and continuity of government, which are also critical parts of a democratic system. The second impact, particularly for the 2020 Local Elections, reduces the Regional Head’s term, initially set to serve until 2026. In contrast, legal considerations in Decision Number 18/PUU-XX/2022 decided that reducing the term of Regional Head due to the 2024 Simultaneous Local Elections does not contradict the 1945 Constitution. Therefore, several recommendations can be formulated for relevant parties. First, the appointment process of Interim Regional Heads should be more transparent and involve public consultation where possible. Second, serious consideration should be given to the impact of reduced terms for Regional Heads elected in 2020. Mechanisms should be in place to ensure that the reduction does not adversely affect the quality of governance or disrupt ongoing projects. Finally, the consideration in Decision Number 18/PUU-XX/2022 and the 1945 Constitution should guide all decision-making processes related to the 2024 Simultaneous Local Elections. Thus, a careful, balanced approach is needed in the execution of the 2024 Simultaneous Local Elections to maintain democratic integrity, the rule of law, and public trust.

Addressing challenges in simultaneous implementation of regional head elections during the Covid-19 Pandemic

This study describes and evaluates the implementation of the simultaneous continuation of local elections in 2020 and the challenges faced during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. This pandemic has disrupted the economic and societal order, including the governance aspect, which encompasses the electoral process for selecting local leaders to continue the previous simultaneous local elections held in the preceding year. The Indonesian government has decided to proceed with the local elections that were initially postponed. Several other countries worldwide have also chosen to hold general elections, although some countries have opted to delay them. This study adopts an ex post facto research design with a qualitative approach. The research object is implementing the simultaneous continuation of local elections in Bantul Regency, DIY Province, in 2020, with the selection of research subjects conducted purposively. Data collection is carried out through interviews and documentation. This paper highlights various challenges encountered during the implementation of local elections in 2020 while Indonesia was still amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

REGIONAL HEAD OFFICIAL APPOINTMENT MECHANISM DURING THE CONDITIONAL REGIONAL HEAD ELECTION TRANSITION PERIOD

After the Decision of the Constitutional Court Number 14/PUU-XI/2013, ordered the General Election and Pilkada to be carried out simultaneously. since then simultaneous regional elections nationally and all aspects of its implementation have begun to be established in stages, based on Article 201 of Law no. 10 of 2016 will be implemented in 2024. This is the basis for legitimacy for the central government to appoint acting regional heads in taking control of local government. As a consequence of the implementation of the simultaneous local elections in 2024, there will be a vacancy in the post of Regional Head whose term of office expires in 2022 and 2023. Filling in positions is an important element in constitutional law. Without being filled in by officials, the functions of the follow-up position may be carried out as they should. The government needs to consider making implementing regulations, the mechanism for appointing Acting (Pj) regional heads and their authority is clear so that the appointment of these officials does not ignore democratic principles and at the same time provides guarantees for the community. This research is to find out the mechanism for the appointment and authority of Acting (Pj) Regional Heads during the simultaneous local election transition period. Normative legal research methods using statutory approaches (Statute Approach) and conceptual approaches (Conceptual Approach). The results of the study show that the Acting (Pj) is the definitive replacement for the regional head when there is a vacancy in the positions of the regional head and deputy regional head simultaneously during the simultaneous Pilkada transition period. The Acting Governor is appointed by the President through the proposal of the Minister of Home Affairs while the Acting Regent/Mayor is determined by the Minister of Home Affairs.

Legal arrangements and election oversight during the COVID-19 pandemic

In several regencies or cities in Indonesia, simultaneous local elections will be held. However, the implementation of the 2020 regional head elections this time is different from the previous year due to the COVID-19 outbreak that has hit the whole world. The direct election of regional heads certainly has broad implications for the Indonesian constitutional system. The purpose of this research is to explain the factors that cause violations and solutions for handling election campaign violations during the pandemic in Indonesia (Mahapatra & Plagemann, 2019; Nwankwo, 2021). This research was conducted using a normative juridical approach and data analysis using a qualitative descriptive approach. The results of the study concluded that the causes and solutions for campaign violations include substance, structure, and culture. In substance, there are regulatory weaknesses in handling election campaign violations as a contributing factor. The structure as the cause of campaign violations can be seen from the election organizers, in this case, the General Election Commissions and Election Supervisory Body, so the solution must be cooperation between parties related to the holding of regional elections. Therefore, the solution that can be done is socialization to the community and increased supervision of election campaigns conducted by the community.

Political Segmentation Voters of Local Political Contests in Bulukumba, Indonesia

The objective of this research is to address the posed problem by examining the outcomes of the political segmentation of voters in the 2020 Bulukumba Regency local elections. The utilized research methodology is descriptive qualitative. The present study employs observation, interviews, and documentation as research instruments to elucidate the Political Segmentation of Voters Winning Pairs of Simultaneous Local Elections in Bulukumba Regency in the year 2020. The study's informants comprised individuals such as Candidates for Regent and Deputy Regent, Political Consultants, Leaders of the Winning Team, and members of the Community. The findings of this investigation suggest that the political segmentation of voters, as conducted by researchers, is based on interviews conducted with team leaders and candidate pairs before the election of the Regent of Bulukumba. The discussions centered on the superior programs that have been conveyed by the incumbent regent, with a particular emphasis on the welfare of the middle class. The equitable distribution of policies implemented by the government has resulted in the participation of various social classes, including those from the agricultural sector and fishermen, in the Bulukumba district. Additionally, the current administration has continued to pursue previously established government programs that were previously unrealized.

Characteristics and Meanings of the 2022 Superintendent Election in S. Korea

본 연구는 2022년 6월에 치러진 제8회 전국동시지방선거 교육감 선거의 특징을 분석하고 그 의미를 논한 것이다. 교육감 선거의 결과, 이전 교육감 선거 대비 이른바 진보 진영의 후보들이 대거 낙선하였고, 보수 진영의 후보들이 다수 당선되었다. 이번 교육감 선거의 특징으로는 후보자간 낮은 경쟁률, 약한 정책 경쟁, 당선자에 대한 낮은 유권자 지지율, 지자체장 등 타 선거와 판이한 선거 결과 등을 들 수 있다. 이와 같은 교육감 선거의 결과는 진보 진영의 패배, ‘혁신교육’에 대한 성찰 요구를 의미하는 것으로 논의하였다. 본 연구는 교육감 선거에서의 높은 무효표 비율, 양 진영 공약의 수렴 현상, 10대 유권자 등 교육 당사자의 선거 영향력 문제 등을 교육감 선거 제도 개선을 위해 논의가 필요한 과제로 제시하였고, 향후 지방교육자치 발전을 위해 교육감 선거 제도 유지 노력, 교육감 선거 제도 개선 논의, 교육자치 영역 확대, 교육자치 시행 단위 하향 등이 필요함을 주장하였다.This study analyzes the characteristics of the 8th Korean National Simultaneous Local Election for Superintendent of Education held in June 2022 and discusses its meaning. As a result of the election, compared to the previous election for superintendent, the candidates from the so-called progressive camp were largely defeated, and a majority of candidates from the conservative camp were elected. Characteristics of this superintendent's election include low competition, weak policy competition, low voter support for the elected candidate, and different results from other elections such as local government heads. The results of the superintendent’s election were discussed as meaning the defeat of the progressive camp and the demand for reflection on ‘innovative education’. In this study, the high percentage of invalid votes in the election for the superintendent of education, the convergence of promises from both camps, and the influence of the parties in education, such as teenage voters, were presented as tasks that need discussion to improve the superintendent's election system. To this end, this study argued that it was necessary to maintain the superintendent's election system, discuss the improvement of the superintendent's election system, expand the area of educational autonomy, and lower the unit for implementing autonomous education.

Maintaining Direct Regional Head Elections, Solutions or Challenges?

The discourse of simultaneous local elections in 2024 is still being debated by by-election and democracy observers. Based on Article 201 paragraph (8) of Law Number 10/2016 concerning the Election of Governors, Regents, and Mayors, simultaneous national voting for regional elections in all regions of Indonesia will be held in November 2024. This event, known as Pilkada, is being discussed by the government with the DPR and is nearing its end. One of the prominent debates is whether the Pilkada will be changed from where the Governor and the Regent/Mayor are elected directly through elections to where the Provincial DPRD elects the Governor. The Regent/Mayor is still elected through elections. Does the question arise whether the direct or indirect Pilkada is a solution or a challenge? Direct Pilkada means that the filling of regional head positions is carried out through a general election (election) or is elected directly by the people-voters. Indirect elections seem to mean that regional heads are elected not directly by the people's voters but by the Regional People's Representative Council (DPRD) or appointed (appointed) by officials above them. Does this paper examine whether the Pilkada, conducted directly or indirectly, is a solution to democracy in Indonesia, or is it a challenge?

The Effectiveness Of The Implementation Of The 2020 Simultaneous Elections In The Time Of The Covid-19 Emergency Pandemic In Kab.Wonosobo

The effectiveness of the 2020 Simultaneous Local Elections in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic has both positive and negative impacts. The positive impacts include the implementation of the mandate of the applicable regulations, the fulfillment of the constitutional rights of the Pilkada participants and the community, reducing the practice of local government leadership which is led by too many temporary officials, and preventing budget swelling. While the negative impacts include the higher risk of COVID-19 transmission, the potential for fraudulent practices that are increasingly vulnerable, the refusal of the Regional Head Elections has the potential to increase the number of abstentions. Efforts so that the 2020 simultaneous regional elections can be carried out properly include increasing the supervision of health protocols, maintaining integrity in the implementation of regional elections, there must be a commitment for both Pilkada participants and implementers, community discipline, there are 55 countries postponing national or local elections and national referendums. However, there are 21 countries that have not postponed elections, 9 of which have been held in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. South Korea became one of the countries that successfully held elections on April 15, 2020 (International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, 2020). In Indonesia, the scheduling of the simultaneous regional elections to be held in December 2020 is considered unrealistic. Due to the fact, until December 2020, the number of positive cases of COVID-19 continued to increase nationally. Many people are worried that if the local elections are held in December 2020, it will become a new cluster for the spread of COVID-19. there are 21 countries that have not postponed elections, 9 of which have been held in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. South Korea became one of the countries that successfully held elections on April 15, 2020 (International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, 2020). In Indonesia, the scheduling of the simultaneous regional elections to be held in December 2020 is considered unrealistic. Due to the fact, until December 2020, the number of positive cases of COVID-19 continued to increase nationally. Many people are worried that if the regional elections are held in December 2020, it will become a new cluster for the spread of COVID-19. there are 21 countries that have not postponed elections, 9 of which have been held in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. South Korea became one of the countries that successfully held elections on April 15, 2020 (International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, 2020). In Indonesia, the scheduling of the simultaneous regional elections to be held in December 2020 is considered unrealistic. Due to the fact, until December 2020, the number of positive cases of COVID-19 continued to increase nationally. Many people are worried that if the regional elections are held in December 2020, it will become a new cluster for the spread of COVID-19.

The Level of Community Political Participation related to the Elections of the Regent and Deputyregent and Empty Boxes in the Simular Elections in 2024

Direct regional head elections can be said to be one of the real forms of implementing regional autonomy, where the people can directly elect the leaders they want directly. This study tries to describe how the level of community political participation is related to the election of the Regent and Deputy Regent as well as the empty box in holding the simultaneous local elections in 2024. This study tries to describe the level of political participation of the community in a substantial and procedural manner through a review of normative literature studies and immediately goes down to see how the residents' enthusiasm for the 2024 simultaneous regional elections and interviewed several residents regarding how they are prepared to face the simultaneous regional elections in the future. It turned out that the formal procedural implementation that went well was not in line with the substantive democracy to be achieved. Democracy will be based on the principle of equality in the sense that every human being is equal; therefore there is no specialization of any particular group or assumption that one is more honorable than another.
 Keywords: Simultaneous Pilkada, Empty Column, Voter Participation

PRAKTIK POLITIK UANG DI KOTA SERANG PROVINSI BANTEN

The Regional Head Election (Pilkada) of Serang City in 2018 is the third batch of simultaneous local elections held simultaneously throughout Indonesia. The problems of the 2018 Regional Head Elections in Serang City, leaving various obstacles and weaknesses. One of them is related to the phenomenon of money politics. The focus of this research examines the monitoring of money politics practices in the 2018 regional elections in Serang City. The results of this study attempt to describe the supervision of money politics in Serang City in the 2018 regional elections by the Serang City Supervisory Committee (Bawaslu) which found that there were money politics practices carried out by sympathizers of the candidate pair team. The research method in this study uses a qualitative method approach

Educational Intervention Program for Young Voters: Improving Political Knowledge and Voting Behavior in the 2020 Simultaneous Local Elections

Young voters' low level of political knowledge, which impacts political participation, is still a phenomenon today. The influence of political knowledge on young voters' behavior is still being debated, and there is little empirical evidence, especially regarding political knowledge and voting behavior enhanced through specific educational programs. Therefore, an effective education program is needed to increase political knowledge and the desire of young voters to participate in general elections. This study aims to determine the effectiveness of educational programs in increasing political knowledge and shaping voting behavior among young voters in South Kalimantan Local Elections (Pilkada). We used a quasi-experimental research design by providing extension activities as an online educational intervention program to 41 participants. All participants took three measurement phases, starting from the pre-education program, post-education program, and post-Pilkada phase. The education program was conducted online by providing materials related to the reasons for using the right to vote, information on candidates, considerations for making choices, election techniques, and time and place for the election. The results of the analysis found that educational programs influenced the political knowledge and voting behavior of young voters. Thus, this educational program can significantly and effectively improve young voters' political knowledge and voting behavior.

MODALITY AND NEW ARENA: NU AND MUHAMMADIYAH IN THE LOCAL ELECTION GUNUNG KIDUL REGENCY

The relation of NU - Muhammadiyah in the history of modern Indonesia is indeed very interesting. Throughout the course of this largest Islamic organization is often colored by coordination, competition, and even confrontation. Reflecting on the Regent's election contestation in Gunung Kidul Regency, Yogyakarta became a real "battleground" for Muhammadiyah and NU organizations to show its existence. The stretching of the relationship between NU and Muhammadiyah is strongly influenced by the existence of their political machines, namely PKB and PAN. Therefore, this study will focus to identify the capital owned by NU and Muhammadiyah and to track the strategies undertaken between NU and Muhammadiyah in utilizing this capital in the simultaneous post-conflict local election as a structure of opportunities. To answer that questions above, this research was carried out through a case study method and used the modality framework as stated by Pierre Bourdieu. The results of this study indicate that there was no increase in exchange between CSOs and candidates in the election of the Regent in the Regency. Gunung Kidul. The post-conflict local election only gives a new field to habitus that has been settled, because the exchange that occurs is a manifestation of relations that have been institutionalized before.

LANGUAGE POLITENESS STRATEGIES OF LEADER CANDIDATE IN REGIONAL ELECTION GORONTALO PROVINCE

This study examines how language politeness strategies are used in simultaneous regional election debates in Gorontalo Province. This study used a descriptive qualitative approach to language politeness strategies. Data collection were carried out by observation and direct observation by recording the utterances of regional leader candidates in the simultaneous local election debates in Gorontalo Province. Data were analyzed qualitatively. The results showed that there are three language politeness strategies in the simultaneous Regional Leader election debates in Gorontalo Province, (1) bold on-record strategies, (2) positive politeness, and (3) negative politeness strategy. It is suggested that politicians are able to understand politeness and language behavior in political campaigns.

Urgensi Realisasi Badan Peradilan Pilkada Untuk Menciptakan Sistem Penyelesaian Sengketa Hasil Pilkada Yang Efektif dan Konstitusional

Election of regional heads (pilkada) simultaneously is one of the democratic parties in the regional autonomy regime that has been going on since 2015. In the implementation of the elections there is certainly the possibility of disputes over the results of the elections. During this time the dispute resolution over the results of the elections carried out by the Constitutional Court. From 2008 to 2019, 982 disputes over the results of the elections were handled by the Constitutional Court. However, based on Decision of the Constitutional Court No. 97/PUU-XI/2013 stated that the addition of the authority of the Constitutional Court to adjudicate disputes over the results of local elections is an unconstitutional act. Then in Law No. 8 of 2015 concerning Pemilukada in Article 157 stipulates that the resolution of disputes over the results of the elections will be carried out by a special judicial body. In the law stated that the special judicial body was formed before the simultaneous election. Until now the special judicial body has never been realized even though the simultaneous local election has been rolling for 5 years. In this paper, we will discuss the urgency of establishing a special judiciary as an institution for the resolution of regional election disputes as determined by the Constitutional Court and the General Election Law. The method used in this study is the juridical method normative with the statutory approach and conceptual approach.