Simulated Surface Mass Balance Research Articles

Strategies for regional modeling of surface mass balance at the Monte Sarmiento Massif, Tierra del Fuego

Abstract. This study investigates strategies for calibration of surface mass balance (SMB) models in the Monte Sarmiento Massif (MSM), Tierra del Fuego, with the goal of achieving realistic simulations of the regional SMB. Applied calibration strategies range from a local single-glacier calibration to a regional calibration with the inclusion of a snowdrift parameterization. We apply four SMB models of different complexity. In this way, we examine the model transferability in space, the benefit of regional mass change observations and the advantage of increasing the complexity level regarding included processes. Measurements include ablation and ice thickness observations at Schiaparelli Glacier as well as elevation changes and flow velocity from satellite data for the entire study site. Performance of simulated SMB is validated against geodetic mass changes and stake observations of surface melting. Results show that transferring SMB models in space is a challenge, and common practices can produce distinctly biased estimates. Model performance can be significantly improved by the use of remotely sensed regional observations. Furthermore, we have shown that snowdrift does play an important role in the SMB in the Cordillera Darwin, where strong and consistent winds prevail. The massif-wide average annual SMB between 2000 and 2022 falls between −0.28 and −0.07 m w.e. yr−1, depending on the applied model. The SMB is mainly controlled by surface melting and snowfall. The model intercomparison does not indicate one obviously best-suited model for SMB simulations in the MSM.

Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes

Abstract. The Antarctic ice sheet mass balance is a major component of the sea level budget and results from the difference of two fluxes of a similar magnitude: ice flow discharging in the ocean and net snow accumulation on the ice sheet surface, i.e. the surface mass balance (SMB). Separately modelling ice dynamics and SMB is the only way to project future trends. In addition, mass balance studies frequently use regional climate models (RCMs) outputs as an alternative to observed fields because SMB observations are particularly scarce on the ice sheet. Here we evaluate new simulations of the polar RCM MAR forced by three reanalyses, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2, for the period 1979–2015, and we compare MAR results to the last outputs of the RCM RACMO2 forced by ERA-Interim. We show that MAR and RACMO2 perform similarly well in simulating coast-to-plateau SMB gradients, and we find no significant differences in their simulated SMB when integrated over the ice sheet or its major basins. More importantly, we outline and quantify missing or underestimated processes in both RCMs. Along stake transects, we show that both models accumulate too much snow on crests, and not enough snow in valleys, as a result of drifting snow transport fluxes not included in MAR and probably underestimated in RACMO2 by a factor of 3. Our results tend to confirm that drifting snow transport and sublimation fluxes are much larger than previous model-based estimates and need to be better resolved and constrained in climate models. Sublimation of precipitating particles in low-level atmospheric layers is responsible for the significantly lower snowfall rates in MAR than in RACMO2 in katabatic channels at the ice sheet margins. Atmospheric sublimation in MAR represents 363 Gt yr−1 over the grounded ice sheet for the year 2015, which is 16 % of the simulated snowfall loaded at the ground. This estimate is consistent with a recent study based on precipitation radar observations and is more than twice as much as simulated in RACMO2 because of different time residence of precipitating particles in the atmosphere. The remaining spatial differences in snowfall between MAR and RACMO2 are attributed to differences in advection of precipitation with snowfall particles being likely advected too far inland in MAR.

Link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the surface mass balance components of the Greenland Ice Sheet under preindustrial and last interglacial climates: a study with a coupled global circulation model

Abstract. The relationship between the surface mass balance (SMB) components (accumulation and melting) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is examined from numerical simulations performed with a new atmospheric stretched grid configuration of the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Model (CNRM-CM) version 5.2 under three periods: preindustrial climate, a warm phase (early Eemian, 130 ka BP) and a cool phase (late Eemian, 115 ka BP) of the last interglacial. The horizontal grid of the atmospheric component of CNRM-CM5.2 is stretched from the tilted pole on Baffin Bay (72∘ N, 65∘ W) in order to obtain a higher spatial resolution on Greenland. The correlation between simulated SMB anomalies averaged over Greenland and the NAO index is weak in winter and significant in summer (about 0.6 for the three periods). In summer, spatial correlations between the NAO index and SMB components display different patterns from one period to another. These differences are analyzed in terms of the respective influence of the positive and negative phases of the NAO on accumulation and melting. Accumulation in south Greenland is significantly correlated with the positive (negative) phase of the NAO in a warm (cold) climate. Under preindustrial and 115 ka BP climates, melting along the margins is more correlated with the positive phase of the NAO than with its negative phase, whereas at 130 ka BP it is more correlated with the negative phase of the NAO in north and northeast Greenland.

Quantifying Energy and Mass Fluxes Controlling Godthåbsfjord Freshwater Input in a 5-km Simulation (1991–2012)*,+

Abstract Freshwater runoff to fjords with marine-terminating glaciers along the Greenland Ice Sheet margin has an impact on fjord circulation and potentially ice sheet mass balance through increasing heat transport to the glacier front. Here, the authors use the high-resolution (5.5 km) HIRHAM5 regional climate model, allowing high detail in topography and surface types, to estimate freshwater input to Godthåbsfjord in southwest Greenland. Model output is compared to hydrometeorological observations and, while simulated daily variability in temperature and downwelling radiation shows high correlation with observations (typically >0.9), there are biases that impact the results. In particular, overestimated albedo leads to underestimation of melt and runoff at low elevations. In the model simulation (1991–2012), the ice sheet experiences increasing energy input from the surface turbulent heat flux (up to elevations of 2000 m) and shortwave radiation (at all elevations). Southerly wind anomalies and declining cloudiness due to an increase in atmospheric pressure over north Greenland contribute to increased summer melt. This results in declining surface mass balance (SMB), increasing surface runoff, and upward shift of the equilibrium line altitude. SMB is reconstructed back to 1890 though regression between simulated SMB and observed temperature and precipitation, with added uncertainty in the period 1890–1952 because of possible inhomogeneity in the precipitation record. SMB as low as in recent years appears to have occurred before, most notably around 1930, 1950, and 1960. While previous low SMBs were mainly caused by low accumulation, those around 1930 and in the 2000s are mainly due to warming.

Northern Hemisphere Glacier and Ice Cap Surface Mass Balance and Contribution to Sea Level Rise

Abstract Mass changes and mass contribution to sea level rise from glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are key components of the earth’s changing sea level. GIC surface mass balance (SMB) magnitudes and individual and regional mean conditions and trends (1979–2009) were simulated for all GIC having areas greater or equal to 0.5 km2 in the Northern Hemisphere north of 25°N latitude (excluding the Greenland Ice Sheet). Recent datasets, including the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI; v. 2.0), the NOAA Global Land One-km Base Elevation Project (GLOBE), and the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) products, together with recent SnowModel developments, allowed relatively high-resolution (1-km horizontal grid; 3-h time step) simulations of GIC surface air temperature, precipitation, sublimation, evaporation, surface runoff, and SMB. Simulated SMB outputs were calibrated against 1422 direct glaciological annual SMB observations of 78 GIC. The overall GIC mean annual and mean summer air temperature, runoff, and SMB loss increased during the simulation period. The cumulative GIC SMB was negative for all regions. The SMB contribution to sea level rise was largest from Alaska and smallest from the Caucasus. On average, the contribution to sea level rise was 0.51 ± 0.16 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) yr−1 for 1979–2009 and ~40% higher 0.71 ± 0.15 mm SLE yr−1 for the last decade, 1999–2009.

Improved representation of East Antarctic surface mass balance in a regional atmospheric climate model

AbstractThis study evaluates the impact of a recent upgrade in the physics package of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 on the simulated surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet. The modelled SMB increases, in particular over the grounded ice sheet of East Antarctica (+44 Gt a–1), with a small change in West Antarctica. This mainly results from an increase in precipitation, which is explained by changes in the cloud microphysics, including a new parameterization for ice cloud supersaturation, and changes in large-scale circulation patterns, which alter topographically forced precipitation. The spatial changes in SMB are evaluated using 3234 in situ SMB observations and ice-balance velocities, and the temporal variability using GRACE satellite retrievals. The in situ observations and balance velocities show a clear improvement of the spatial representation of the SMB in the interior of East Antarctica, which has become considerably wetter. No improvements are seen for West Antarctica and the coastal regions. A comparison of model SMB temporal variability with GRACE satellite retrievals shows no significant change in performance.

The Antarctic surface mass balance in a stretched grid general circulation model

The Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) variable-grid atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) was used in this study for a five-year high-resolution simulation of the Antarctic climate. The horizontal resolution is about 100 km over a large part of the ice sheet. This study focuses on the simulated surface mass balance (precipitation-evaporation sublimation-melt) and on the spatial and temporal variability of snowfall in Antarctica. The simulated annual mean surface mass balance for the whole continent is close to the observed value, and the model simulates well the spatial distribution of the surface mass balance. The annual cycle of snowfall exhibits a clear minimum in summer over the high interior plateau as well as for Antarctica as a whole, in agreement with the observations. In the interior of the continent, the model produces a permanent light background snowfall that accounts for about 5% of the total annual precipitation. The bulk of the snowfall is produced irregularly during periods that generally last only two or three days that are caused by cyclones off the coast.

The Antarctic surface mass balance in a stretched grid general circulation model

The Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) variable-grid atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) was used in this study for a five-year high-resolution simulation of the Antarctic climate. The horizontal resolution is about 100 km over a large part of the ice sheet. This study focuses on the simulated surface mass balance (precipitation-evaporation sublimation-melt) and on the spatial and temporal variability of snowfall in Antarctica. The simulated annual mean surface mass balance for the whole continent is close to the observed value, and the model simulates well the spatial distribution of the surface mass balance. The annual cycle of snowfall exhibits a clear minimum in summer over the high interior plateau as well as for Antarctica as a whole, in agreement with the observations. In the interior of the continent, the model produces a permanent light background snowfall that accounts for about 5% of the total annual precipitation. The bulk of the snowfall is produced irregularly during periods that generally last only two or three days that are caused by cyclones off the coast.