Signs Of Overheating Research Articles

China venture market overview

Today the Chinese economy has rapidly begun the transition to a new stage of development. Its basis is high-tech production and national breakthrough technologies. This process happens due to the transformation of the government strategy in the direction of scaling up innovation through the inclusion of small and medium enterprises. China has been able to raise venture investments for its new development plan. However, since 2016, the rapid growth of the Chinese venture market has raised many concerns. The purpose of the study was to analyze and assess the current state of China's venture capital market. The research proved that, despite signs of overheating, it is still premature to talk about the formation of a “bubble” in the Chinese venture market. The article concludes with a discussion that China is transforming itself again and that the next wave of innovation and private entrepreneurship will be the wave of the future, with substantial global consequences.

Structural and Policy Changes in the Chinese Housing Market

AbstractHousing price becomes a popular topic among nearly most of the investors in major Chinese cities. Recently, the housing markets appears to have shown signs of overheating and nonstationary trends, attributable to the collapse of the global economic environment and the introduction of local policies. The purpose of this study is to investigate if abrupt structural changes, which can be viewed as the effectiveness of government regulations and economic events but hidden in the housing price index, exist. An improved nonparametric statistical model, namely the wavelet detection technique, is introduced in this paper, based on which jump point(s) can be identified. Our empirical study illustrates that the domino effect as suggested by the detected change points are, geographically, from south to north, and from east to west, in contrast with general understanding. This may be a result of the owner-occupier demand in China’s housing markets.

Russian Economic Report

After a decade of high growth, the Russian economy is experiencing a slowdown in the wake of the global financial crisis. While Russia's strong short-term macroeconomic fundamentals make it better prepared than many emerging economies to deal with the crisis, its underlying structural weaknesses and high dependence on the price of a single commodity make its impact more pronounced than otherwise. Prudent fiscal management and substantial financial reserves have protected Russia from deeper consequences of this external shock. The government's policy response so far swift, comprehensive, and coordinated has helped limit the impact. Short-term macroeconomic stabilization has to be the immediate priority as the authorities continue to adjust their short-term policy responses to changing economic circumstances. But the crisis also presents an opportunity to address the medium to longer term challenges of competitiveness, economic diversification, and financial sector modernization which are necessary to boost growth and living standards. This would ensure that Russia emerges from this global crisis with a stronger basis for dynamic, productivity-led growth and is better placed to take advantage of global integration. In the first six months of 2008, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Russia continued at a brisk pace of about 8 percent, reflecting a booming economy and strong macroeconomic fundamentals. This growth exceeds the long-term potential of the economy (estimated in the 6-7 percent range), with clear signs of overheating. An upturn in inflation, a decline in unemployment, a rise in capital utilization, and real wages significantly outpacing productivity growth all indicated an overheating economy against the backdrop of binding supply (infrastructure) constraints.

COUNTING THE COST OF HIGHER BASE RATES

It is a brave Chancellor of the Exchequer who raises interest rates when inflation is at record low levels and there are few signs of overheating. But Kenneth Clarke is clearly trying to give substance to his commitment ‐ made in June's Mansion House Speech ‐ to pursue stable monetary and fiscal policies. In that speech, the Chancellor told his City audience that the government had “not created the conditions for the strongest recovery in Europe in order to throw it away by creating yet another boom followed by bust”.There is widespread agreement with the Chancellor's objectives. But the difficult question for economic management is how high interest rates will need to go in order to contain inflation and keep the economy on course. In this Forecast Release, we examine this question as well as assessing the likely impact of the first rise in base rates for five years.