Significant Predictor Of Myocardial Infarction Research Articles

Predictors of cardiovascular disease risk: findings from the National Survey of Health and Development Cohort

Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a significant cause of mortality and morbidity within the UK. CVDs and all-cause mortality can be predicted with varying levels of certainty with different models. Purpose This study aimed to explore the incremental effect of risk factors and respective biomarkers on CVD events risk estimation models. Methods The National Survey for Health and Development (NSHD) birth cohort study, including 2547 women 2815 men, was used to model relationships between conventional and emerging risk factors and cardiometabolic and vascular outcomes, including myocardial infarction and stroke between 1999 and 2009. Logistic regression or XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models were used to predict the outcomes (myocardial infarction and strokes). Model fit was assessed by comparing predicted and known incident events in a two-by-two error matrix for binary outcomes. Results In a model including both sex and smoking alcohol intake (β = -0.029g; p < 0.05), body mass index (BMI) (β = 0.095 kg/m2; p < 0.05), glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) (β = 0.033 mmol/mol; p < 0.01) and total cholesterol/high density lipoprotein (TC/HDL) ratio (β = 0.459 mg/dL; p < 0.0001) waist-to-hip ratio (β = 5.632cm; p = 0.05) and waist circumference (β = 0.031cm; p < 0.01) were significant predictors of myocardial infarction. A lower risk was observed among those with higher average alcohol intake, whereas higher risk being observed among those with higher BMI, HbA1c levels, total cholesterol/HDL ratio, waist-to-hip ratio and waist circumference. For stroke, exercising 5+ times (β = -1.47; p < 0.01), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (β = 0.040mmHg; p < 0.001), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (β = 0.027mmHg; p < 0.001), pulse pressure (β = 0.033mmHg; p < 0.01), triglycerides (β = 0.388; p < 0.05) and total cholesterol/HDL ratio (β = 0.419; p < 0.01) were all significant predictors of stroke. We found that higher values of SBP, DBP, pulse pressure, triglycerides and total cholesterol/HDL ratio were associated with higher risk of stroke, whereas higher levels of physical activity were associated with a lower risk. Additionally, by combining BMI, HbA1c and total cholesterol/HDL ratio to the baseline model it provided the greatest F1 score of all models (0.123) and the greatest precision (6.7%), with a recall of 72.4%. With XGBoost we observed a reduced F1 score from 0.123 to 0.079, although adding information on alcohol intake and waist to hip ratio to this model, as previous analysis indicated great improvements in prediction, the F1 score obtained using the XGBoost increased from to 0.079 to 0.103. Conclusion This research shows that clinical and laboratory measurements play a potentially powerful role in predicting health outcomes when using evidence-based risk calculators. Using large cohorts allows for real-life long-term associations to be explored and quantified with a higher level of certainty for replicability across other populations.

Optimal Pair Matching Combined with Machine Learning Predicts a Significant Reduction in Myocardial Infarction Risk in African Americans Following Omega-3 Fatty Acid Supplementation.

Conflicting clinical trial results on omega-3 highly unsaturated fatty acids (n-3 HUFA) have prompted uncertainty about their cardioprotective effects. While the VITAL trial found no overall cardiovascular benefit from n-3 HUFA supplementation, its substantial African American (AfAm) enrollment provided a unique opportunity to explore racial differences in response to n-3 HUFA supplementation. The current observational study aimed to simulate randomized clinical trial (RCT) conditions by matching 3766 AfAm and 15,553 non-Hispanic White (NHW) individuals from the VITAL trial utilizing propensity score matching to address the limitations related to differences in confounding variables between the two groups. Within matched groups (3766 AfAm and 3766 NHW), n-3 HUFA supplementation's impact on myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was assessed. A weighted decision tree analysis revealed belonging to the n-3 supplementation group as the most significant predictor of MI among AfAm but not NHW. Further logistic regression using the LASSO method and bootstrap estimation of standard errors indicated n-3 supplementation significantly lowered MI risk in AfAm (OR 0.17, 95% CI [0.048, 0.60]), with no such effect in NHW. This study underscores the critical need for future RCT to explore racial disparities in MI risk associated with n-3 HUFA supplementation and highlights potential causal differences between supplementation health outcomes in AfAm versus NHW populations.

An Evaluation of Platelet Indices in Newly Diagnosed Cases of Acute Myocardial Infarction

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is characterized by prothrombotic phenotype associated with endothelial dysfunction, an increase in platelet activation and systemic inflammation. Platelet aggregation and activation are crucial in the formation of thrombi and acceleration of atherosclerosis, associated with unstable angina, sudden cardiac death is brought on by an acute myocardial infarction. Objective: To evaluate the platelet-indices in newly diagnosed cases of acute myocardial infarction. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted during November 2022 to December 2023 in Pathology Department of Sheikh Zayed Medical College/Hospital Rahim Yar Khan. Samples were collected from the patients of AMI admitted to Emergency Ward and from healthy controls as well. Complete Blood Count (CBC) with platelet indices, platelet count, Mean Platelet Volume (MPV), Platelet Crit (PCT) and Platelet Distribution Width (PDW) were investigated on five-part automated hematology analyzer BT-PRO 2300. Analysis of the data was done by using SPSS version 20.0. Results: Total 140 patients were divided into a healthy control group (70) and newly diagnosed cases of acute myocardial infarction (70). Among diagnosed cases of AMI 46 (65.7%) had ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 24 cases (34.2%) got non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). It was found that AMI patients had lower platelet counts and PCT with higher MPV and PDW. Conclusions: It was concluded that the platelet indices (PDW, and PCT, MPV) are significant predictors of myocardial infarction. They might be applied as an easy, reliable, and economical way to anticipate an impending acute coronary event.

A Weighted Composite of Endodontic Inflammatory Disease is Linked to a First Myocardial Infarction.

To explore a weighted composite of endodontic inflammatory disease (EID) as a risk factor for suffering a first myocardial infarction (MI). Seven tooth-specific conditions related to EID were assessed radiographically in 797 patients suffering a first MI and 796 controls. A weighted composite of EID was calculated as the sum of all teeth, excluding third molars. Using maximum likelihood estimation, each condition was assigned a specific weight. With multivariable conditional regression, EID variables, periodontal disease, and missing teeth were assessed as predictors of a first MI. Periodontal disease (OR 1.38; 95% CI 1.13-1.69, p = 0.0016) and missing teeth (OR 1.03; 95% CI 1.002-1.05, p = 0.034) were related to the risk of a first MI, while none of the EID-related conditions individually were. However, when assessed as an aggregate, a weighted composite of EID (OR 1.97; 95% CI 1.23-3.17, p = 0.0050) and periodontal disease (OR 1.34; 95% CI 1.09-1.63, p = 0.0046) was associated with the risk of MI. Missing teeth did not remain a statistically significant predictor of MI in the final model. A weighted composite of EID was associated with the risk of MI and strengthens the evidence for a direct connection between oral inflammatory diseases and cardiovascular disorders.

Use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score to predict subsequent myocardial infarction in atrial fibrillation

BackgroundThe risk of subsequent myocardial infarction (MI) varies widely in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). No convenient scoring system currently exists to identify MI in AF. While each element of the CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure; hypertension; age ≥75 years [doubled]; type 2 diabetes; previous stroke or thromboembolism [doubled]; vascular disease; age 65–75 years; and sex category) score can increase the likelihood of MI, this retrospective longitudinal study aimed to determine the accuracy of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting subsequent MI risk in AF. MethodsA total of 29,341 patients with AF were enrolled and followed up from January 2010 until the first occurrence of MI or until December 2020. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of subsequent MI. ResultsThe average age of the study population was 71 years, and 43.2% were male. The mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was found to be higher in patients with AF who had experienced an MI than in those who had not (3.56 ± 1.92 vs. 3.32 ± 1.81, p < 0.001). During the long-term follow-up, the risk of subsequent MI increased by 22% with every one-point increase in the CHA2DS2-VASc score (hazard ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.19–1.25; p < 0.001). Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed that high CHA2DS2-VASc scores were more likely to experience an MI than those with low CHA2DS2-VASc scores (log-rank p < 0.001). Furthermore, the CHA2DS2-VASc score was a significant predictor of MI in multivariate regression analysis. ConclusionThe CHA2DS2-VASc score is a valuable predictor of subsequent MI risk in patients with AF.

Failure to Normalize Risk Profile of Spine Fusion Patients With Coronary Artery Disease Previously Treated With Percutaneous Stent Revascularization.

The impact of an initially less invasive cardiac intervention on outcomes of future surgical spine procedures has been understudied; therefore, we sought to investigate the effect of coronary stents on postoperative outcomes in an elective spine fusion cohort. Elective spine fusion patients were isolated with International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Edition and current procedural terminology procedure codes in the PearlDiver database. Patients were stratified by number of coronary stents: (1) 1 to 2 stents (ST12); (2) 3 to 4 stents (ST34); (3) no stents. Mean comparison tests compared differences in demographics, diagnoses, comorbidities, and 30-day and 90-day complication outcomes. Logistic regression assessed the odds of complications associated with coronary stents, controlling for levels fused, age, sex, and comorbidities (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]). Statistical significance was P < 0.05. A total of 726,061 elective spine fusion patients were isolated. Of those patients, 707,396 patients had no stent, 17,087 ST12, and 1578 ST34. At baseline (BL), ST12 patients had higher rates of morbid obesity, chronic kidney disease, congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes mellitus compared with no stent and ST34 patients (all P < 0.001). Relative to no stent patients, ST12 patients had a longer length of stay and, at 30 days, significantly higher complication rates, including pneumonia, myocardial infarction (MI), sepsis, acute kidney injury, urinary tract infection (UTI), wound complications, transfusions, and 30-day readmissions (P < 0.05). Controlling for age, sex, comorbidities, and levels fused, ST12 was a significant predictor of MI within 30 days (OR 2.15 [95% CI 1.7-2.7], P < 0.001) and 90 days postoperatively (OR 1.87 [95% CI 1.6-2.2], P < 0.001). ST34 patients compared with no stent patients at 30 days presented with increased rates of complication, including pneumonia, MI, sepsis, UTI, wound complications, and 30-day readmissions. Regression analysis showed no significant differences in complications between ST12 vs ST34 at 30 days, but at 90 days, ST34 was associated with significantly increased rate and odds of death (1.1% vs 0.3%, P = 0.021; OR 1.94 [95% CI 1.13-3.13], P = 0.01). Cardiac stents failed to normalize risk profile of patients with coronary artery disease. Postoperatively at 90 days, elective spine fusion patients with 3 or more stents were significantly at risk of mortality compared with patients with fewer or no stents.

Assessing the Risks of Bleeding vs Thrombotic Events in Patients at High Bleeding Risk After Coronary Stent Implantation

Patients who are candidates for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and are at high bleeding risk constitute a therapeutic challenge because they often also face an increased risk of thrombotic complications. To develop and validate models to predict the risks of major bleeding (Bleeding Academic Research Consortium [BARC] types 3 to 5 bleeding) and myocardial infarction (MI) and/or stent thrombosis (ST) for individual patients at high bleeding risk and provide assistance in defining procedural strategy and antithrombotic regimens. This prognostic study used individual patient data from 6 studies conducted from July 1, 2009, to September 5, 2017, for 6641 patients at more than 200 centers in Europe, the US, and Asia who underwent PCI and were identified as being at high bleeding risk using the Academic Research Consortium criteria. In 1 year of follow-up (excluding periprocedural events), individual patient risks of MI and/or ST and major bleeding were evaluated using 33 baseline variables. To validate these models, a subgroup of 1458 patients at high bleeding risk from the ONYX ONE trial were analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed from February 1, 2019, to April 30, 2020. All patients underwent PCI with bare metal, drug-coated, or drug-eluting stent implants. Forward, stepwise multivariable proportional hazards models were used to identify highly significant predictors of MI and/or ST and BARC types 3 to 5 bleeding. A total of 6641 patients (4384 men [66.0%]; median age, 77.9 years [interquartile range, 70.0-82.6 years]) were included in this study. Over 365 days, nonperiprocedural MI and/or ST occurred in 350 patients (5.3%), and BARC types 3 to 5 bleeding occurred in 381 patients (5.7%). Eight independent baseline predictors of risk of MI and/or ST and 8 predictors for risk of BARC types 3 to 5 bleeding were identified. Four of these predictors were in both risk models. Both risk models showed moderate discrimination: C statistic = 0.69 for predicting MI and/or ST and 0.68 for predicting BARC types 3 to 5 bleeding. Applying these same models to the validation cohort gave a similar strength of discrimination (C statistic = 0.74 for both MI and/or ST and BARC types 3-5 bleeding). Patients with MI and/or ST had a mortality hazard ratio of 6.1 (95% CI, 4.8-7.7), and those with BARC types 3 to 5 bleeding had a mortality hazard ratio of 3.7 (95% CI, 2.9-4.8) compared with patients free of both events. Taking these data into account, the risk scores facilitate investigation of the individual patient trade-off between these 2 risks: 2931 patients (44.1%) at high bleeding risk in the 6 studies had a greater risk of MI and/or ST than of BARC 3 to 5 bleeding, 1555 patients (23.4%) had a greater risk of BARC 3 to 5 bleeding than of MI and/or ST, and 2155 (32.4%) had a comparable risk of both events. In a large cohort of patients at high bleeding risk undergoing PCI, 2 prognostic models have been developed to identify individual patients' risk of major coronary thrombotic and bleeding events. In future clinical practice, using an application on a smartphone to evaluate the trade-off between these 2 quantifiable risks for each patient may help clinicians choose the most appropriate revascularization strategy and tailor the duration and intensity of antithrombotic regimens.

The inflammation link between periodontal disease and coronary atherosclerosis in patients with acute coronary syndromes: case\u2013control study

BackgroundCoronary atherosclerosis and periodontal disease, due to their prevalence, are a serious epidemiological problem. Pathophysiological evidence points to their possible common inflammatory etiopathological background. The aim of the study was to analyze the relationship between the presence and severity of periodontitis, systemic inflammation and selected parameters of myocardial injury and heart function in patients with acute myocardial infarction.MethodsThe study group consisted of 71 patients 54.22 (7.05)-year-old hospitalized due to acute myocardial infarction. The patients underwent a coronary angiographic examination and echocardiography. The following laboratory parameters were determined: blood morphology, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), fibrinogen, troponin I, creatine kinase myocardial band (CK-MB), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), lipidogram, glucose, creatinine, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), thyroid stymulating hormone (TSH), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). Dental assessment of the patients was performed and the following indicators were included: the number of teeth preserved, approximal plaque index (API), bleeding on probing (BoP), pocket depth (PD), the number of bleeding periodontal pockets ≥ 4 mm in depth (NoPD ≥ 4 mm), the percentage of bleeding periodontal pockets ≥ 4 mm in depth (%PD ≥ 4 mm), clinical attachment loss (CAL). The control consisted of 40 patients 52 (± 8.43)-year-old without a history of coronary heart disease. These patients were subjected to a periodontal examination using the above parameters and classification methods. The following statistical tests were implemented: Shapiro–Wilk test, Levene's test, Mann Whitney's U analysis, Univariate Analysis of Variance (ANOVA); the post-hoc analysis was performed with the use of Tukey's honest significant difference test (HSD), Kruskal–Wallis's non-parametric test, Spearman's rank correlation, logistic regression analysis, linear regression analysis and ROC analysis.ResultsThe BoP (bleeding on probing) significantly correlated with fibrynogen (R-0.36; p-0.006). All indices regarding the pocket depth correlated significantly with the number of leukocytes: PD (R-0.27; p-0.02), NoPD ≥ 4 mm (R-0.28, p-0.02), %PD ≥ 4 mm (R-0.27; p-0.02). PD (R-0.28; p-0.01) and NoPD ≥ 4 mm (R-0.24; p-0.04) were also associated significantly with the level of hsCRP. The BoP is correlated closely with the levels of BNP (R-0.29, p-0.02). The multifactorial analysis showed that significant predictors of myocardial infarction are API and BoP. The analysis showed that API and BoP are important predictors of troponin levels. Linear regression analysis showed that only CAL is a significant predictor of BNP.ConclusionsPatients with acute myocardial infarction have worse periodontal status compared to people without coronary heart disease. Greater severity of periodontitis, plaque accumulation and bleeding on probing are associated with acute myocardial infarction. Periodontitis is a risk factor for myocardial infarction and also affects the degree of post-infarction left ventricular damage, which means that there is an inflammatory link between these two diseases.

2286Clinical correlates and outcomes of methamphetamine-associated cardiovascular disease among hospitalised patients in California

Abstract Background Methamphetamine abuse is a growing public health crisis, affecting an estimated 33 millions users worldwide. It is associated with the development of several cardiac pathologies, however the incidence and predictors of cardiovascular disease among methamphetamine users remains unclear. Purpose We aim to describe the clinical characteristics of methamphetamine users identified from a large cohort of hospitalised patients. Through comparison of methamphetamine users who develop cardiovascular disease (CVD) with those who do not, we aim to identify predictors of these cardiac conditions. Methods We studied the clinical and sociodemographic characteristics (via ICD-9 codes) of methamphetamine users using a database of hospitalised patients in California, captured by the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) between 2005–2011. We used Cox proportional hazards model for incidence of methamphetamine-associated cardiac pathologies (pulmonary hypertension, congestive heart failure, stroke and myocardial infarction) among methamphetamine users. Results Amongst 20,249,026 persons in HCUP, we identified n=66,199 patients as methamphetamine users. Methamphetamine users were younger (33±11.6 years) and more frequently male (63.3%) when compared to non-users (45±19.5 years, 44.4% male). They were also more likely to smoke (26% vs 4%) and concurrently abuse alcohol (7% vs 1%). Methamphetamine use was associated with a 32% increased risk of CVD (HR 1.32, CI 1.26–1.38); higher than those who abuse alcohol (HR 1.28, CI 1.27–1.38), but lower than in those who abuse cocaine (HR 1.47, CI 1.40–1.54), when compared to non-users. Of the 4 CVD types studied, methamphetamine use was most strongly associated with the development of congestive heart failure (HR 1.53) and pulmonary hypertension (HR 1.42). Whilst male gender (HR 1.73) was a significant predictor of myocardial infarction among methamphetamine users, female gender was not found to be a significant risk factor for the development of any of the studied pathologies. Chronic Kidney Disease (HR 2.38, CI 1.74–3.25) and hypertension (HR 2.26, CI 2.03–2.51) were the risk factors most strongly associated with development of CVD among methamphetamine users. A Kaplan-Meier plot was constructed (figure 1), comparing the time-to-event for development of CVD among users of either methamphetamine, alcohol or cocaine, with non-users. Methamphetamine and cocaine users both had a higher incidence of CVD after 5 years, when compared to those who abuse alcohol only. Conclusions Methamphetamine users are at increased risk of CVD when compared to the general hospitalised population. They have a similar risk of CVD as users of cocaine and a higher risk than those who abuse alcohol. Whilst male gender appears to be a risk factor for myocardial infarction among methamphetamine users, there was no significant association found between female gender and the development of CVD in this population.

Effects of long-term glycemic variability on incident cardiovascular disease and mortality in subjects without diabetes

Increased glycemic variability (GV) is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular complications in patients with diabetes. We evaluated the risk of future development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death according to GV in a general population without diabetes.We used the National Health Insurance Service, providing a population-based, nationwide database of Koreans. We included individuals without diabetes who underwent glucose measurement at least 3 times during 2002 to 2006. GV was calculated as standard deviation (SD) of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels. We observed development of CVD or all-cause death from 2007 to 2015, and also evaluated the mortality within 1 year after CVD.Among 3,211,319 people, we found 23,374 incident cases of myocardial infarction (MI), 27,705 cases of stroke, and 63,275 deaths during 8.3 years of follow-up. After multivariate adjustment, GV was found to be a significant predictor of MI, stroke and all-cause death for their highest quartile, with corresponding hazard ratios (HR) of 1.08 (95% confidence interval, CI 1.04-1.11), 1.09 (95% CI 1.06-1.13), and 1.12 (95% CI 1.10-1.15), respectively. The risk of death increased more in those who had both impaired fasting glucose and the highest quartile of GV (HR 1.24 [95% CI 1.21-1.28]). Moreover, early death rate after 1 year of CVD was higher in the highest quartile of GV compared to the lowest quartile (HR 1.21 [95% CI 1.03-1.41]).Long-term FPG variation was independently associated with CVD and mortality in a general population without diabetes.

Epicardial adipose tissue thickness can be used to predict major adverse cardiac events.

Increase in epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) thickness is associated with subclinical and manifest coronary artery disease. In addition, it is associated with the severity and extent of coronary atherosclerosis. We aimed to investigate whether increased EAT thickness is associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Two hundred consecutive patients who were admitted with stable angina pectoris, unstable angina pectoris or acute myocardial infarction (MI), and had undergone coronary angiography were included and followed for revascularization, nonfatal MI, hospitalization for heart failure and cardiovascular death for 26 (5-30) months. There were significantly more revascularizations, nonfatal MI and cardiovascular death in patients with an initial EAT thickness more than 7 mm (P<0.001 for all). Significant predictors of cardiovascular death were identified as an EAT thickness more than 7 mm [hazard ratio (HR) 1.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4-8.3, P=0.039] and diabetes (HR 3.42, 95% CI 0.7-17.5, P=0.014) in the multivariate Cox regression analysis. Event-free survival for cardiovascular death in the EAT up to 7 mm group was 97.9%, whereas it was 90.7% in the EAT more than 7 mm group (P=0.021). In addition, significant predictors of MI were identified as an EAT thickness more than 7 mm (HR 2.4, 95% CI 0.6-10.0, P=0.021) and diabetes (HR 3.4, 95% CI 1.0-11.2, P=0.04). Event-free survival for MI in the EAT up to 7 mm group was 96.4%, whereas it was 68.2% in the EAT more than 7 mm group (P=0.001). Increase in EAT thickness independently predicts adverse cardiac events including MI and cardiovascular death.

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is a novel, independent predictive marker of myocardial infarction in HIV-1-infected patients: a nested case-control study.

ObjectivesPatients infected with HIV are at increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI). Increased plasma levels of the inflammatory biomarker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) have been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), including MI in the general population. We tested suPAR as a predictive biomarker of MI in HIV‐1‐infected individuals.MethodssuPAR levels were investigated in a nested case‐control study of 55 HIV‐1‐infected cases with verified first‐time MI and 182 HIV‐1‐infected controls with no known CVD. Controls were matched for age, gender, duration of antiretroviral therapy (ART), smoking and no known CVD. suPAR was measured in the four plasma samples available for each patient at different time‐points; 1, Before initiation of ART; 2, 3 months after initiation of ART; 3, 1 year before the case's MI; and 4, The last sample available before the case's MI.ResultsIn unadjusted conditional regression analysis, higher levels of suPAR were associated with a significant increase in risk of MI at all time‐points. Patients in the third and fourth suPAR quartiles had a three‐ to 10‐fold higher risk of MI compared to patients in the lowest suPAR quartile at all time‐points. suPAR remained a strong significant predictor of MI, when adjusting for HIV‐1 RNA, total cholesterol, triglycerides and high‐density lipoprotein.ConclusionElevated suPAR levels were associated with increased risk of MI in HIV‐infected patients, suggesting that suPAR could be a useful biomarker for prediction of first‐time MI in this patient group, even years before the event.

PP.30.16

Objective: The relationship between blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been extensively documented. However the benefit of anti-hypertensive drugs is less pronounced for coronary prevention than for stroke prevention. Because coronary and cerebral circulation obey different regulatory mechanisms we questioned the role of BP level per se (estimated by mean BP (MBP)) and aortic stiffness (estimated by aortic atherosclerosis and pulse pressre (PP)) on 2 different outcomes: acute myocardial infarction (MI) and acute stroke. The analysis was also repeated for 2 more liberal outcomes: coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. Design and method: 1031 subjects referred in the seventies for hypertension work-up were included and outcomes assessed 30 years later. A 3-grade aortic atherosclerotic score was built on the aortography, initially performed to seek for renal artery stenosis. Results: At baseline, mean age was 44 years with two third of men; MBP and PP were 136 ± 22 and 77 ± 23 mmHg, respectively. MBP, PP, and aortic atherosclerotic score were all significantly associated with MI and stroke in univariate analysis (p < 0.001 for all). In multivariate analysis taking into account the major risk factors (see Table on the following page), PP and atherosclerotic score, but MBP appeared as significant predictors of MI. On the contrary, only MBP appeared as a significant predictor of stroke. Similar results were obtained for coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease.Conclusions: These results highlight that MI is primitively a vascular problem tightly related to aortic stiffness; this may explain why strategy only aimed at lowering BP do not confer a complete reversion of the risk (i.e. a residual risk remains despite treatment). Some new strategy aimed at aortic destiffnening could be more efficient on this outcome. On the contrary, stroke is a “pure BP disease”. No destiffening is needed provided that BP is lowered.

Anhedonic depression, history of depression, and anxiety as gender-specific risk factors of myocardial infarction in healthy men and women: The HUNT study

This prospective study examines gender-specific psychological risk factors of myocardial infarction. Out of 41,248 participants free of coronary heart disease at baseline, 822 cases of myocardial infarction were identified in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study or the mortality register. The participants completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Cholesterol, blood pressure, and waist–hip ratio were measured by medical staff. Smoking, diabetes, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and history of depressive episode were self-reported. Anhedonic depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-D ≥8) was a significant predictor of myocardial infarction in women but not in men. Gender difference in risk estimate based on Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-D was significant (p < .01). History of depressive episode was a significant predictor of myocardial infarction in men. Symptoms of anxiety (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-A ≥8) reduced the risk of having a myocardial infarction.

Risk Factors, Incidence, and Effect of Cardiac Failure and Myocardial Infarction in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Patients

Cardiac dysfunction is a well-known complication of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). However, the clinical significance of cardiac complications is largely unknown. To determine whether cardiac complications are independently related to outcomes and to identify potential predictors associated with these complications. We extracted all hospitalizations for aSAH from the National Inpatient Sample database for years 2002 to 2009. We used generalized estimating equations to determine whether cardiac complications were associated with the patient outcomes and to evaluate potential predictors of cardiac complications. Among 53713 cases of aSAH, there were 3609 (6.72%) and 151 (0.28%) incidences of cardiac failure (CF) and myocardial infarction (MI), respectively. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 24.8%, whereas the mortality rate for patients with CF was 34.4% and the mortality rate for patients with MI was 29.8%. Patients who experienced CF were significantly more likely than other patients to die in the hospital (odds ratio: 1.6, 95% confidence interval: 1.47-1.68; P < .001). The difference in mortality rates between MI patients and other patients, however, was not statistically significant. The generalized estimating equation model identified 7 factors that were predictive of CF: age, sex, race, primary payer, diabetes, smoker, and cardiac disease. For MI, the model identified age, race, and primary payer as significant predictors of MI. Our results suggest that an important association exists between cardiac complications and mortality/morbidity in aSAH patients. aSAH patients with CF appear to have a higher mortality rate, longer hospital length of stay, and higher hospitalization costs compared with those without CF.

Reprinted Article “The Fate of the Claudicant—A Prospective Study of 1969 Claudicants”

A prospective study of 1969 patients with intermittent claudication receiving placebo medication for a minimum of 1 year is reported. Patients were carefully monitored and only four patients were lost to follow-up. Annual mortality was 4.3%. Thirty-six patients developed a definite myocardial infarction, 27 a major stroke, 32 required a major amputation and 111 required surgical or radiological intervention for deteriorating ischaemia of the leg. The entry characteristics of the patients were analysed as a predictor of serious cardiovascular events. The most sensitive predictors of total mortality were age, history of coronary heart disease and an ankle/arm pressure ratio below 0.5. Of the laboratory measurements performed only the initial white cell count was a significant predictor of myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular deaths.

Myocardial infarction and heart failure hospitalization rates in Maine, USA - variability along the urban-rural continuum

Cardiovascular disease, including myocardial infarction (MI) and heart failure (HF), remains the leading cause of death in wealthy countries and is of increasing concern in low- and middle-income countries as risk factors such as smoking and obesity become more common around the globe. Within each country the health burden of MI and HF generally falls more heavily on those who live in rural areas and on those who live in communities with lower average socioeconomic status (SES). Hospitalization rates are an important measure of community health because high rates may indicate a high burden of poor health, while inappropriately low rates (low hospitalization rates absent evidence of average good health) may indicate underutilization of health services. The objective of this study was to determine the predictors of MI and HF hospitalization rates at town level in the State of Maine, USA. Maine has large variations in wealth and along the urban-rural continuum at town level. Because our results shed light on variations in health and health-seeking behavior for different Maine populations (such as those living closer vs further from hospitals) they may be of interest to providers of healthcare to people who live in areas remote from healthcare, and to people who face other barriers to good cardiovascular health. To determine predictors of HF and MI hospitalization in Maine, we constructed a geographic information system (GIS) for Maine's towns using publicly available electronic map layers, year 2000 census data, and electronic hospitalization records for all Maine hospitals. This GIS generated age-corrected MI and HF hospitalization rates for 1998-2002 as dependent variables and the following independent variables: poverty rate, unemployment rate, median income, educational attainment, rurality, physician density, and distance to the closest hospital. Univariable and multiple linear regression analysis were then performed to determine the significant predictors of MI and HF hospitalization rates. During the 5-year study period there were 24 452 hospitalizations of Maine residents to Maine hospitals for MI and 20 330 for HF. In multiple linear regression analysis, greater unemployment, a larger fraction of the population living in poverty, and proximity to a hospital predicted higher MI hospitalization rate (p = 0.000, r-sq = 19.1%) while greater unemployment and proximity to a hospital predicted higher HF hospitalization rate (p = 0.000, r-sq = 8.4%). Our finding that higher MI and HF hospitalization rates were predicted for towns that had lower SES is in agreement with many previous studies and shows the importance of these variables to health, even in a setting such as Maine with large variability in rurality. The negative relationship between the distance to a hospital and hospitalization rates likely does not represent better health in those living remotely from healthcare. Rather, it may indicate that people who live in communities distant from hospitals are less likely to seek hospitalization. This suggests that patient behavior as well as socioeconomic status may impact heart-related hospitalization in Maine. It highlights the importance of patient and provider education to ensure that people who live remotely from health care are hospitalized appropriately.

Angiopoietin‐2 levels as a biomarker of cardiovascular risk in patients with hypertension

Background. Abnormal angiogenesis is a pathophysiological component of cardiovascular disease (CVD), where circulating biomarkers of angiogenesis are associated with increased CVD risk in hypertension. We hypothesized that raised levels of angiopoietin (Ang)‐1 and ‐2 would predict events in patients with hypertension treated for CVD.Methods. We measured angiopoietin levels by enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in 251 hypertensive participants (85% male; mean age 63.5 years; 192 free of previous CVD events). Plasma angiopoietin levels were related to the subsequent CVD events over a mean follow‐up period of 57.1 (SD 11) months.Results. There were 11 cases of myocardial infarction (MI) and 18 cases of stroke during follow‐up. Ang‐2 was a significant predictor of MI, stroke, and composite CVD events, with the greatest event‐free survival amongst those in the lower tertile (all P<0.05). Ang‐1 was not predictive of CVD outcomes. Of CVD risk factors at recruitment (blood pressure, body mass index, plasma glucose, serum and high‐density lipoprotein (HDL)‐cholesterol), Ang‐2 was the only discriminator of incident MI (area under curve (AUC) = 73%, P = 0.013), where a value >4.3 ng/mL optimized specificity and sensitivity. On Cox regression analysis (CVD treatments and risk factors), raised Ang‐2 was an independent predictor of MI, P<0.05, but not stroke or composite outcomes.Conclusions. Among patients with hypertension, raised levels of Ang‐2 were predictive of MI, and further study is warranted to evaluate the use of this biomarker in CVD management, risk stratification, and prevention.

Exercise Tolerance as a Predictor of Acute Myocardial Infarction in Emergency Department Patients with Potential Acute Coronary Syndromes

There is mounting evidence that exercise tolerance is an important predictor of heart disease. Our objective was to determine if decreased exercise tolerance, as estimated by physicians, may be useful in stratifying risk in Emergency Department (ED) patients with potential acute coronary syndromes. We conducted a prospective cohort study on a convenience sample of ED patients at an urban teaching hospital. Patients with chest pain, dyspnea, syncope, or epigastric pain who were evaluated for acute coronary syndromes were included. Clinical and laboratory data were recorded. In addition, the Emergency Physicians were asked to estimate the exercise tolerance of the patient as excellent, good, bad, or very poor. The primary outcome of the study was myocardial infarction (MI) or death in patients stratified by physician-perceived exercise tolerance (excellent or good vs. bad or very poor). There were 166 patients enrolled in the study. Nine patients (5%) had an MI; there were no deaths. Physicians reported exercise tolerance as excellent in 33 patients, good in 63, bad in 50, and very poor in 20. The unadjusted risk of MI was significantly elevated in patients with physician-perceived decreased exercise tolerance (relative risk = 4.8, 95% confidence interval 1.03–22). After adjustment for age, sex, and major cardiovascular risk factors, decreased exercise tolerance remained a significant predictor of MI (adjusted odds ratio = 7.3, 95% confidence interval 1.2–46). Exercise tolerance, as estimated by clinical impression, may be an important predictor of complications in ED patients presenting with potential acute coronary syndromes.

Prognostic value of plasma soluble P‐selectin and von Willebrand factor as indices of platelet activation and endothelial damage/dysfunction in high‐risk patients with hypertension: a sub‐study of the Anglo‐Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial

Abnormal levels of prothrombotic markers have been described in hypertension, but no such marker has yet been shown to reliably predict cardiovascular outcomes in hypertension. We hypothesized that raised circulating levels of soluble P-selectin (sP-sel, an index of platelet activation) and/or von Willebrand factor (vWF, an index of endothelial damage/dysfunction) would predict vascular events in patients treated for cardiovascular risk. We measured vWF and sP-sel levels by an ELISA in 234 hypertensive participants with no prior cardiovascular events who were participating in the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial (ASCOT). Plasma vWF and sP-sel levels were related to the subsequent cardiovascular events over a mean (SD) follow-up period of 59.6 (19) months. Plasma sP-sel was a significant predictor of myocardial infarction (P = 0.03), with the greatest risk amongst those with the highest sP-sel levels. sP-sel did not predict cerebrovascular events (P = 0.53) or composite cardiovascular events (P = 0.06). No significant relationships were found between vWF levels and outcomes. There was no relationship to the presence or absence of diabetes mellitus (DM) at baseline or subsequent development of DM during the follow-up period. Among 'high-risk' patients with hypertension, raised levels of sP-sel (platelet activation) were predictive of myocardial infarction. Levels of vWF (endothelial damage/dysfunction) were not associated with coronary events and neither marker predicted cerebrovascular or composite cardiovascular endpoints. Platelets (or P-selectin) might represent a target for novel therapies or an adjunctive aid to risk stratification in the setting of hypertension.