Significant Predictors Of All-cause Death Research Articles

Inhaled nitric oxide testing in predicting prognosis in pulmonary hypertension due to left-sided heart diseases.

The pathophysiology of pulmonary hypertension (PH) due to left-sided heart disease (Group 2 PH) is distinct from that of other groups of PH, yet there are still no approved therapies that selectively target pulmonary circulation. The increase in pulmonary capillary pressure due to left-sided heart disease is a trigger event for physical and biological alterations of the pulmonary circulation, including the nitric oxide (NO)-soluble guanylate cyclase-cyclic guanosine monophosphate axis. This study investigated inhaled NO vasoreactivity tests for patients with Group 2 PH and hypothesized that these changes may have a prognostic impact. This was a single-centre, retrospective study with a median follow-up of 365days. From January 2011 to December 2015, we studied 69 patients with Group 2 PH [age, 61.5±13.0 (standard deviation) years; male:female, 49:20; left ventricular ejection fraction, 50.1±20.4%; mean pulmonary arterial pressure, ≥25mmHg; and pulmonary arterial wedge pressure (PAWP), >15mmHg]. No adverse events were observed after NO inhalation. Thirty-four patients with Group 2 PH showed increased PAWP (ΔPAWP: 3.26±2.22mmHg), while the remaining 35 patients did not (ΔPAWP: -2.11±2.29mmHg). Multivariate analysis revealed that increased PAWP was the only significant predictor of all-cause death or hospitalization for heart failure (HF) after 1year (hazard ratio 4.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.27-14.83; P=0.019). The acute response of PAWP to NO differed between HF with preserved and reduced ejection fractions. Patients with Group 2 PH were tolerant of the inhaled NO test. NO-induced PAWP is a novel prognostic indicator.

Ordinal scoring of coronary artery calcification in low dose computed tomography is predictive factor of all-cause death and cardiovascular events

Abstract Background Lung cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are leading worldwide mortality causes firmly related to smoking. Lung cancer screening (LCS) consisted in performing low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) offers an opportunity for simultaneous coronary artery calcification (CAC) assessment. Purpose The study aimed to determine the usefulness of the visual assessment of CAC in the prediction of all-cause death and non-fatal cardiovascular outcomes including myocardial infarction and stroke. Methods The study involved 6580 participants aged 50–79 years, current or former smokers with a cigarette smoking history of at least 30 pack-years, who were qualified for lung cancer screening program performed between April 2016 and May 2018. CAC was visually scored on ungated LDCT scans in the range of 0–12 based on the length of calcification involvement in four main coronary arteries. CAC severity was categorized into groups of 0, 1–3, 4–12. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The secondary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (composite of CVD death, nonfatal myocardiaI infarction, nonfatal stroke). The outcomes data were obtained by using the National Health Care Provider Registry of death and hospitalizations. The mean time of follow-up was 41.1 months (SD 8.3). Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk of mortality according to the CAC category adjusted for age, pack-years of cigarette smoking, and sex. Results The rate of all-cause death substantially increased in groups of higher CAC and it was consecutively 2.7% (89 of 3288 subjects) for a score of 0, 4.2% (66 of 1582 subjects) for a score of 1–3 and 8.3% (145 of 1742 subjects) for a score of 4–12. With the use of subjects with a CAC score of 0 as the reference group, adjusted for sex, age, and pack-years of smoking, a CAC score of at least 4 was a significant predictor of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR], 1.89; 95% CI: 1.42; 2.52; P<0.05). Similar results were observed for the composite of CVD death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke with even greater significance. The rate of secondary outcames was 1.6% (51/3276) in a 0 score cohort, 3.0% (47/1570) in a 1–3 score cohort and 7.5% (130/1732) in a 4–12 score cohort. Both CAC score in the range 1–3 ([HR], 1.57; 95% CI: 1.05; 1.2.35; P<0.05), and 4–12 ([HR], 3.55; 95% CI: 2.50; 5.04; P<0.05) were a significant predictors of major adverse cardiovascular event incidence. Conclusions Visual assessment of CAC provides solid evidence of all-cause death and cardiovascular incidents independently of traditional coronary risk factors. Therefore evaluation of CAC in LDCT scans offers a unique opportunity for instituting CVD risk assessment in lung cancer screening program. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): National Centre for Research and Development of Poland.

Abstract 10141: Outcomes in Elderly Patients with Hospitalized Heart Failure Stratified by Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction

Introduction: The prevalence of heart failure (HF) has increased markedly with age. Given the influence of age and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) on the mortality in HF, the assessment of clinical outcomes in elderly patients stratified LVEF categories may provide better care decisions in clinical settings. Methods: Between 2006 and 2017, 3558 consecutive patients enrolled in a prospective multicenter registry in Japan (the West Tokyo Heart Failure registry) were analyzed. We divided the patients into three age groups: <65 years (younger), 75-84 years (elderly), and ≥85 years (very-elderly) by each LVEF subgroup (HF with preserved ejection fraction [HFpEF, LVEF ≥50%] or non-HFpEF [LVEF <50%]). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality after discharge. We performed a multivariate cox proportional hazards analysis to identify the risk factors for all-cause death using several covariates. Results: Overall, 1505 HFpEF (younger: n=182, elderly: n=894, very-elderly: n=429) and 2053 non-HFpEF (younger: n=575, elderly: n=1159, very-elderly: n=319) were included in this study. During the median follow-up period of 2.0 years, the incidence of all-cause death was almost similar in both HFpEF and non-HFpEF groups (19.2% vs. 20.3%, p=0.60 for log-rank test). The mortality increased substantially with increasing age categories, and also differed by LVEF categories (Figure). After multivariable adjustments, age (per 1-year increase) and LVEF (per 1% decrease) were the significant predictors of all-cause death (age: hazard ratio [HR] 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.05, p<0.001; LVEF: HR 1.01, 95% CI 1.01-1.02, p<0.01). Conclusions: In contemporary Japanese clinical practice with aging, age was closely associated with higher risks for all-cause death, and the mortality was stratified by LVEF categories.

Long-term clinical outcomes and cause of death after endovascular treatment for femoropopliteal artery lesions

BackgroundEndovascular treatment (EVT) for femoropopliteal artery disease is common in clinical practice. However, little is known about its prognostic factors, causes of death, and long-term clinical outcomes. MethodsTwo hundred eighty-five consecutive patients (mean age, 72±8 years, 73% men) undergoing their first EVT for de-novo femoropopliteal artery disease from 2009 to 2018 were studied. Patients were divided in two groups according to the presence of critical limb ischemia (CLI). We evaluated the incidence of major adverse limb events (MALE) including clinically driven target vessel revascularization and target limb major amputation, and all-cause death. ResultsThe procedure was successful in 97.9% of cases. The non-CLI group comprised 205 patients (72%), and the CLI group comprised 80 patients (28%). The CLI group exhibited higher high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels and a higher rate of hemodialysis than the non-CLI group. During the median follow-up period of 3.5 years, there were 62 deaths (21.8%) including cardiovascular (32.3%), infection (32,3%), and malignancy-related (22.6%) deaths. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the CLI group had a significantly higher incidence of MALE and all-cause death (log-rank, both p<0.001, respectively). The leading causes of death in the CLI group were cardiovascular- and infection-related death; the leading cause of death in the non-CLI group was malignancy-related. On multivariate Cox hazard analysis, hemodialysis, TASC II classification C/D lesions, and CLI were significant predictors of MALE (p<0.001, p=0.005, and p=0.012, respectively). Hemodialysis, age, higher hs-CRP levels, and CLI were significant predictors of all-cause death (p<0.001, p=0.003, p=0.009, and p=0.021, respectively). ConclusionsAlthough EVT for femoropopliteal artery disease appears feasible with a high rate of procedural success, a high incidence of MALE and all-cause death was observed. Further studies are needed to improve the outcomes in patients with CLI.

P0782PROGNOSTIC IMPACT OF NECK CIRCUMFERENCE ON CARDIVASCULAR OUTCOMES AND MORTALITY IN PATIENTS WITH MODERATE CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE: AN ANALYSIS FROM THE GERMAN CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE (GCKD) STUDY

Abstract Background and Aims Neck circumference (NC) is an approximator of upper body subcutaneous fat tissue and a marker of obesity. It has been shown to be associated with cardiovascular risk factors and incident chronic kidney disease (CKD). In CKD patients, the impact on cardiovascular events and all cause death has not been fully elucidated yet. The prognostic impact on these outcomes in a representative cohort of adult patients with moderate CKD of Caucasian origin was investigated here. Method We used data from the GCKD study, a German multi-centric prospective observational cohort study of 5217 adults with moderate chronic kidney disease, defined as eGFR 30–60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or eGFR &amp;gt;60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and significant proteinuria (albuminuria &amp;gt;300 mg/g creatinine or proteinuria &amp;gt;500 mg/g creatinine). Exclusion criteria were active malignancy, heart failure NYHA class IV, organ transplantation, and non-Caucasian origin. NC was measured repeatedly (annually, except at first year of follow-up) during the study, therefore, the mean value was analyzed. We report data from the 4-year follow-up visit regarding 1) a combined endpoint of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, cardiovascular death, and peripheral artery disease event (amputation or revascularization) and 2) all-cause death as another endpoint. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% CIs. In univariate analysis, ordinal regression with quintiles of NC was applied. Results NC was accrued in 4453 participants and analyzed. NC overall was 40±5 cm (43±4 cm in men and 37±4 cm in women, p&amp;lt;0.001), mean age 60±12 years, 41% were female, 96% had hypertension, 35% were diabetic, 58% had ever smoked, eGFR was 50±18 ml/min/1.73 m (CKD-EPI), BMI 28±6 kg/m, LDL-cholesterol 119±43 mg/dl. Higher quintiles of NC were associated increased risk of the cardiovascular outcome in univariate analysis: highest (44 cm) vs. lowest (36.5 cm), HR 2.34 (1.63–3.36; p&amp;lt;0.001). In multivariable analysis adjusted for age, sex, and BMI, this effect was reduced but still apparent: HR 1.04 (1.01–1.08, p=0.025). Age (HR per year 1.05, 1.04–1.07, p&amp;lt;0.001), and female sex (HR 0.69, 0.50–0.95, p=0.023), showed also significant effects, whereas BMI did not (p=0.831). The effect of higher quintiles of NC on the risk of all-cause death in univariate analysis was even stronger: highest vs. lowest, HR 3.2 (1.72–5.81, p=0.006). However, after adjustment this effect was abolished: HR 0.99 (0.95–1.04; p=0.85). Only age (HR 1.07, 1.04–1.09, p&amp;lt;0.001), and female sex (HR 0.45, 0.27-0.74, p=0.002), remained significant predictors of all-cause death in this model. Conclusion In patients with chronic kidney disease, we found higher NC to be associated with increased cardiovascular event risk, but not all-cause death, after adjustment for age, sex and BMI. The risk of cardiovascular outcomes and overall mortality was consistently lower in women. Our analysis supports evidence, that upper body subcutaneous adipose tissue might be an independent contributor to cardiovascular event risk.

Sex Differences in New York Heart Association Functional Classification and Survival in Acute Heart Failure Patients With Preserved or Reduced Ejection Fraction

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of sex on the relationship between the New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional classification and survival in acute decompensated heart failure (HF) patients with preserved or reduced ejection fraction (EF). MethodsOf 4842 patients enrolled in the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure Syndromes (ATTEND) registry, 4717 (2730 men and 1987 women) were investigated to assess the association of sex, NYHA functional class, and preserved or reduced EF with all-cause death. Men and women were divided into 6 groups based on left ventricular EF (preserved or reduced) and NYHA functional class (II, III, or IV) at admission. ResultsAmong both sexes with preserved EF, multivariable analysis confirmed that NYHA functional class IV was associated with a significantly higher risk of all-cause death than NYHA functional class II. Similarly, in women with reduced EF, NYHA functional class IV was a significant predictor of all-cause death compared with class II. However, in men with reduced EF, the adjusted risk of all-cause death was similar for those in NYHA functional classes II, III, and IV. Furthermore, the interaction between sex and NYHA functional classes II to IV was statistically significant for all-cause death in reduced EF patients (P for interaction = 0.037), but not in preserved EF patients (P for interaction = 0.711). ConclusionsNYHA functional class IV was a significant predictor of all-cause death in both sexes with preserved EF, whereas NYHA functional class IV was a significant predictor of all-cause death in women, but not in men, with reduced EF.

Changes to oral anticoagulant therapy and risk of death over a 3-year follow-up of a contemporary cohort of European patients with atrial fibrillation final report of the EURObservational Research Programme on Atrial Fibrillation (EORP-AF) pilot general registry

BackgroundContemporary European data regarding patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) allow us to assess the use of oral anticoagulants (OACs) and long-term outcomes. MethodsPatients with AF presenting to cardiologists in 9 European Society of Cardiology participating countries were enrolled and followed-up for 3-years. ResultsAmong the 2119 patients (40.4% female; mean age 69 ± 11 years) the prevalent types of AF at baseline were first-detected (30.5%) and paroxysmal AF (27.0%).The composite of stroke/TIA/peripheral embolism/all-cause death at 3-years occurred in 18.2%, with first detected AF and permanent AF reporting the highest event rates (22.5% and 27.3%, respectively; p < 0.0001). Age, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, restrictive cardiomyopathy, chronic kidney disease and no physical activity were significant predictors of all-cause death. Paroxysmal and persistent AF patients were more likely to be hospitalised than other types of AF (34.1% and 37.9%, p < 0.0001).At follow-up, OAC drugs were used in 80.1% of patients, with non-vitamin K antagonists (NOACs) accounting for 24.3% of patients. OAC treatment at follow-up visits changed throughout time, with a shift from VKA to NOACs reported in 5.4% of the cases, while the reverse shift (from NOACs to VKA) occurred in 8.6%. Discontinuation of OAC was recorded in while in 9.5% of visits. ConclusionsPatients outcomes at 3-years follow-up differ according to type of AF at baseline, with worse outcomes in patients presenting with first-detected or permanent AF. Changes in the type of OAC use with shifts from NOACs to VKA and vice-versa are not uncommon, as were interruptions of OAC.

Mortality and Sudden Cardiac Death Risk Stratification Using the Noninvasive Combination of Wide QRS Duration and Late Gadolinium Enhancement in Idiopathic Dilated Cardiomyopathy.

The aim of this study was to investigate whether the combination of QRS duration ≥120 ms (wide QRS duration [wQRS]) and late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) is a precise prognostic indicator for dilated cardiomyopathy. We investigated the association between the combination of LGE plus wQRS and the primary end point (all-cause death) and a composite of sudden cardiac death (SCD) or aborted SCD in 531 patients with dilated cardiomyopathy. We also analyzed the association between the combination of LGE and wQRS and these end points among patients with a class I indication for implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation. We divided study patients into 3 groups according to LGE status and QRS duration: 2 negative indices (LGE negative and narrow QRS), 1 positive index (LGE positive or wQRS), or 2 positive indices (LGE positive and wQRS), and followed them for 3.8 years. Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified 2 positive indices as a significant predictor of all-cause death (hazard ratio, 4.29 [1.19-15.47]; P=0.026). Among 317 patients with a class I indication for implantable cardioverter defibrillator, the 5-year event rate of SCD or aborted SCD was the lowest in the 2 negative indices group (1.4%). With propensity score-matching cohorts, the 2 negative indices group had a significantly lower event rate of SCD or aborted SCD than the other 2 groups (hazard ratio, 0.12 [0.01-0.97]; P=0.046). The combination of LGE and wQRS provides additional prognostic stratification compared with LGE status alone and might improve the appropriate use of implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

Utility of Growth Differentiation Factor-15, A Marker of Oxidative Stress and Inflammation, in Chronic Heart Failure: Insights From the HF-ACTION Study

ObjectivesThis study sought to determine the relationship between growth differentiation factor (GDF)-15 and clinical outcomes in ambulatory patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). BackgroundThe prognostic utility of GDF-15, a member of the transforming growth factor-β cytokine family, among patients with HF is unclear. MethodsWe assessed GDF-15 levels in 910 patients enrolled in the HF-ACTION (Heart Failure: A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise Training) trial, a randomized clinical trial of exercise training in patients with HFrEF. Median follow-up was 30 months. Cox proportional hazard models assessed the relationships between GDF-15 and clinical outcomes. ResultsThe median GDF-15 concentration was 1,596 pg/ml. Patients in the highest tertile of GDF-15 were older and had measurements of more severe HF (higher N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP] concentrations and lower peak oxygen uptake on cardiopulmonary exercise testing [CPX]). GDF-15 therapy was a significant predictor of all-cause death (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 2.03 when GDF-15 was doubled; p < 0.0001). This association persisted after adjustment for demographic and clinical and biomarkers including high sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) and NT-proBNP (HR: 1.30 per doubling of GDF-15; p = 0.029). GDF-15 did not improve discrimination (as measured by changes in c-statistics and the integrated discrimination improvement) in addition to baseline variables, including hs-TnT and NT-proBNP or variables found in CPX testing. ConclusionsIn demographically diverse, well-managed patients with HFrEF, GDF-15 therapy provided independent prognostic information in addition to established predictors of outcomes. These data support a possible role for GDF-15 in the risk stratification of patients with chronic HFrEF. (Heart Failure: A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise Training [HF-ACTION]; NCT00047437)

The Relation between eNOS −786 C/T, 4 a/b, MMP-13 rs640198 G/T, Eotaxin 426 C/T, −384 A/G, and 67 G/A Polymorphisms and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease

Aim. The purpose of this study is to determine the association between eotaxin 426 C/T, −384 A/G, 67 G/A, eNOS −786 T/C, 4 a/b, and MMP-13 rs640198 G/T and prognosis of patients with known CAD. Methods. From total of 1161 patients referred to coronary angiography, 532 patients with angiographically confirmed CAD were selected. Their long-term outcome was followed up using hospital database. Subsequent events were assessed in this study: death or combined endpoint-myocardial infarction, unstable angina pectoris, revascularization, heart failure hospitalization, and cardioverter-defibrillator implantation. Results. The multivariate Cox regression model identified age, smoking, and 3-vessel disease as significant predictors of all-cause death. Further analysis showed that eotaxin 67 G/A (GA + AA versus GG) and eotaxin −384 A/G (GG versus GA + AA) were significant independent prognostic factors when added into the model: HR (95% CI) 2.81 (1.35–5.85), p = 0.006; HR (95% CI) 2.63 (1.19–5.83), p = 0.017; eotaxin −384 A/G was significantly associated with the event-free survival, but it did not provide the prognostic information above the effect of two- or three-vessel disease. Conclusion. The A allele in eotaxin 67 G/A polymorphism is associated with worse survival in CAD patients.

Associations of all-cause mortality with census-based neighbourhood deprivation and population density in Japan: a multilevel survival analysis.

BackgroundDespite evidence that neighbourhood conditions affect residents' health, no prospective studies of the association between neighbourhood socio-demographic factors and all-cause mortality have been conducted in non-Western societies. Thus, we examined the effects of areal deprivation and population density on all-cause mortality in Japan.MethodsWe employed census and survival data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study, Cohort I (n = 37,455), consisting of middle-aged residents (40 to 59 years at the baseline in 1990) living in four public health centre districts. Data spanned between 1990 and 2010. A multilevel parametric proportional-hazard regression model was applied to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause mortality by two census-based areal variables —areal deprivation index and population density—as well as individualistic variables such as socioeconomic status and various risk factors.ResultsWe found that areal deprivation and population density had moderate associations with all-cause mortality at the neighbourhood level based on the survival data with 21 years of follow-ups. Even when controlling for individualistic socio-economic status and behavioural factors, the HRs of the two areal factors (using quartile categorical variables) significantly predicted mortality. Further, this analysis indicated an interaction effect of the two factors: areal deprivation prominently affects the health of residents in neighbourhoods with high population density.ConclusionsWe confirmed that neighbourhood socio-demographic factors are significant predictors of all-cause death in Japanese non-metropolitan settings. Although further study is needed to clarify the cause-effect relationship of this association, the present findings suggest that health promotion policies should consider health disparities between neighbourhoods and possibly direct interventions towards reducing mortality in densely populated and highly deprived neighbourhoods.

Comparison of predictive performance of various fatty acids for the risk of cardiovascular disease events and all-cause deaths in a community-based cohort

BackgroundThe issue of whether saturated fats and trans fats are superior predictors of all-cause death and cardiovascular disease than n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids, such as eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), remains a matter of contention. Furthermore, few studies have examined the relationship between fatty acids and the outcomes of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asian populations. The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of various plasma fatty acids as predictors for all-cause death and CVD events in an ethnic Chinese population. MethodsThis study assembled a community-based prospective cohort, comprising 1833 participants (60.6 ± 10.5 yrs, 44.5% women) who underwent a comprehensive evaluation of fatty acids in blood using gas chromatography. None of the subjects had a history of CVD at the time of recruitment. ResultsA total of 568 individuals died and 275 individuals developed CVD during the follow-up period (median of 9.6 years; interquartile range of 8.9–10.5 years). Following adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors, the relative risk of all-cause death in the highest quartile, compared with the lowest quartile, was 1.33 for saturated fats (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.75, test for trend, P = 0.015), 1.71 for trans fats (95% CI, 1.27–2.31, test for trend, P = 0.0003), 0.77 for EPA (95% CI, 0.59–1.00, test for trend, P = 0.048), and 0.89 for DHA (95% CI, 0.68–1.18, test for trend, P = 0.354). Similar patterns were observed for CVD events. Trans fats presented the largest area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.740, 95% CI, 0.716–0.766) for the prediction of all-cause death. A mutually adjusted two-marker model indicated that saturated fats and trans fats were significant predictors of all-cause death and CVD; however, the other fatty acids were not. In addition, trans fats presented the greatest improvement in net reclassification for all-cause death (7.7%, P = 0.003), followed by EPA (3.8%, P = 0.033). Saturated fats presented the greatest improvement in net reclassification for CVD events (5.6%, P = 0.039). ConclusionsOur data provides strong evidence to support that plasma saturated fats and trans fats can predict all-cause death and CVD more effectively than other fatty acid markers.

Mortality Risk Associated With Bundle Branch Blocks and Related Repolarization Abnormalities (from the Women's Health Initiative [WHI

Electrocardiographic bundle branch block (BBB) has higher cardiac and all-cause death. However, reports on the association between BBBs and mortality in the general populations are conflicting. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and all-cause death associated with left BBB (LBBB) and right BBB (RBBB) during 14 years of follow-up in 66,450 participants from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) study. Cox proportional-hazards regression was performed for mortality risk in Women with LBBB (n = 714) and those with RBBB (n = 832). In risk models adjusted for demographic and clinical risk factors in women with cardiovascular disease (CVD), hazard ratios for CHD death were 2.92 (95% confidence interval 2.08 to 4.08, p <0.001) for LBBB and 1.62 (95% confidence interval 1.08 to 2.43, p <0.05) for RBBB, and only LBBB was a significant predictor of all-cause death (hazard ratio 1.43, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 1.83, p <0.01). In CVD-free women, only LBBB was a significant predictor of CHD death (fully adjusted hazard ratio 2.17, 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 3.43, p <0.01), and neither blocks was predictive of all-cause death. From several repolarization variables that were significant mortality predictors in univariate risk models, after adjustment for other electrocardiographic covariates and risk factors, ST J-point depression in lead aVL ≤-30 μV in women with LBBB was an independent predictor of CHD death, with a more than fivefold increase in risk. None of the repolarization variables were independent predictors in women with RBBB. In conclusion, prevalent LBBB in CVD-free women and LBBB and RBBB in women with CVD were significant predictors of CHD death. In women with LBBB, ST J-point depression in lead aVL was a strong independent predictor of CHD death.

Incremental Effects of Endocrine and Metabolic Biomarkers and Abdominal Obesity on Cardiovascular Mortality Prediction

BackgroundBiomarkers may help clinicians predict cardiovascular risk. We aimed to determine if the addition of endocrine, metabolic, and obesity-associated biomarkers to conventional risk factors improves the prediction of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality.Methodology/Principal FindingsIn a population-based cohort study (the Study of Health in Pomerania) of 3,967 subjects (age 20–80 years) free of cardiovascular disease with a median follow-up of 10.0 years (38,638 person-years), we assessed the predictive value of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and the biomarkers thyrotropin; testosterone (in men only); insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1); hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c); creatinine; high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP); fibrinogen; urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio; and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) on cardiovascular and all-cause death.During follow-up, we observed 339 all-cause including 103 cardiovascular deaths. In Cox regression models with conventional risk factors, the following biomarkers were retained as significant predictors of cardiovascular death after backward elimination: HbA1c, IGF-1, and hsCRP. IGF-1 and hsCRP were retained as significant predictors of all-cause death.For cardiovascular death, adding these biomarkers to the conventional risk factors changed the C-statistic from 0.898 to 0.910 (p = 0.02). The net reclassification improvement was 10.6%. For all-cause death, the C-statistic changed from 0.849 to 0.853 (P = 0.09).Conclusions/SignificanceHbA1c, IGF-1, and hsCRP predict cardiovascular death independently of conventional cardiovascular risk factors. These easily assessed endocrine and metabolic biomarkers might improve the ability to predict cardiovascular death.

Decreasing systolic blood pressure and declining mortality rates in an untreated population: results from the Copenhagen City Heart Study

The aim of the present study was to evaluate developments in 30 years mortality risk that may be associated with developments in population systolic blood pressure (SBP) and to evaluate possible secular trends in BP-associated mortality risk in the untreated population. The Copenhagen City Heart Study is a prospective longitudinal epidemiological study. The present analysis comprised participants from survey 1 (1976-78) and 3 (1991-94). BP measurements and other methods were fully standardized and unchanged throughout the observation period. Questionnaires were completed by the participants and double checked by the technicians while they were interviewing the participants. 18 077 persons participated. Age, systolic BP, diastolic BP, cholesterol, BMI, diabetes, gender and habitual physical activity were significant predictors of all-cause death in all age groups. Risk factor adjusted risk for all-cause death was significantly lower in survey 3 compared with survey 1. Among elderly people, there was no development in mortality risk. In the age groups 40-49 years and 50-59 years there were survey differences indicating a significant trend towards longer life expectancy compared with their age-matched counterparts in survey 1. The association between BP and mortality remained unchanged. A declining risk of all-cause death was observed in the younger and middle-aged cohorts of the population. The decrease in systolic BP and decline in mortality risk in the same age groups points to a role of systolic BP in age-cohort differentiated improvements of life expectancy. The effect of systolic BP on mortality did not change during follow-up.

DECREASING SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE RESULT IN DECLINING MORTALITY RATES IN AN UNTREATED POPULATION. RESULTS FROM THE COPENHAGEN CITY HEART STUDY: 7B.04

Objective: The aim of the present study was to evaluate mortality risk and its association to developments in population systolic BP and to evaluate secular trends in BP associated mortality risk in the untreated population. Design: The Copenhagen City Heart Study is a prospective longitudinal epidemiological study. The present analysis comprised subjects from survey 1 and 3. Methods: BP measurements and other methods were fully standardised and unchanged throughout the observation period. Questionnaires were completed by the participants who were followed by public registers. Results: 18 077 persons participated. Age, systolic BP, diabetes, gender and habitual physical activity were significant predictors of all-cause death in all age groups. Risk-factor adjusted risk for all-cause death was significantly lower in survey 3 compared to survey 1. Among the elderly, there were no development in mortality risk, but in the age groups 40–49 years and 50–59 years there were survey differences indicating a significant trend towards longer life expectancy compared to their age-matched counterparts in survey 1. No secular trend in risk-factor adjusted mortality risk could be identified. Conclusion: A declining risk-factor adjusted risk of all-cause death was observed in the younger and middle-aged cohorts of the population. The association of decreasing systolic BP and declining mortality risk in the same age-groups points to a role of systolic BP in age-cohort differentiated improvements of life expectancy. The mortality risk associated with any given level of systolic BP was stationary throughout the observation period.