Significant Predictor Of 1-year Mortality Research Articles

Impact of age over 70 years in the new allocation system on the outcomes of heart transplantation in the US.

United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) allocation criteria changed in 2018 to accommodate the increased prevalence of patients on a ventricular assist device as a bridge to heart transplant and prioritize sicker people in anticipation of a heart graft. We aimed to assess the impact of patient age in the new allocation policy on mortality following heart transplantation. Secondary outcomes included the effect of age ≥70 on post-transplant events, including stroke, dialysis, pacemaker, and rejection requiring treatment. The UNOS Registry was queried to identify patients who underwent heart transplants alone in the US between 2000 and 2021. Patients were divided into groups according to their age (over 70 and under 70 years old). Patients aged over 70 were more likely to require dialysis during follow-up, but less likely to experience rejection requiring treatment, compared with patients aged <70. Age ≥70 in the new allocation system was a significant predictor of 1-year mortality (adjusted HR: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.05-1.91; p=.024), but its effect on 5-year mortality was not significant after adjusting for potential confounders (adjusted HR: 1.27; 95% CI:.97-1.66; p=.077). Undergoing transplantation under the new allocation policy vs the old allocation policy was not a significant predictor of mortality in patients over 70 years old. Age ≥70 is a significant predictor of 1-year mortality following heart transplantation, but not at 5 and 10 years; however, the new allocation does not seem to have changed the outcomes for this group of patients.

Prediction of Admission to Intensive Care Unit and 1-Year Mortality After Acute Pancreatitis With Walled-Off Pancreatic Necrosis: A Retrospective, Single-Center Cohort Study.

Pancreatic walled-off necrosis (WON) carries significant mortality and morbidity risks, often necessitating intensive care unit (ICU) admission. This retrospective study aimed to evaluate whether routine biochemical parameters at the time of the index endoscopic procedure could predict ICU admission and 1-year mortality following endoscopic treatment of WON. We retrospectively identified 201 consecutive patients who underwent endoscopic drainage for WON between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2020. Associations between routine biochemical blood tests and outcomes were assessed using logistic regression models. Within 1 year of the index endoscopy, 31 patients (15.4%) died, and 40 (19.9%) were admitted to the ICU due to sepsis. Preoperative electrolyte disturbances were more prevalent among ICU-admitted patients and nonsurvivors. Hyperkalemia, hypoalbuminemia, and elevated urea were significant predictors of 1-year mortality, while hypernatremia, elevated serum creatinine, and hypoalbuminemia predicted ICU admission. Predictive models exhibited good discriminative ability, with an AUC of 0.84 (95% CI,0,75-0.93) for 1-year mortality and 0.86 (95%CI, 0.79-0.92) for ICU admission. Preoperative imbalances in routine blood tests effectively predict adverse outcomes in endoscopically treated WON patients.

Inpatient hyperglycaemia, and impact on morbidity, mortality and re-hospitalisation rates

Hyperglycaemia is related to poorer outcomes among hospital inpatients. We investigated the impact of hyperglycaemia at admission on length of hospital stay, readmission rate and mortality rate. We retrospectively analysed the records of 1,132 patients admitted to hospital in January 2019, April 2019, August 2019 and April 2020. Hyperglycaemia was present in 14.1% of patients. New-onset hyperglycaemia on admission (in 3.9% of patients) was related to a higher mortality rate than in patients known to have diabetes admitted with hyperglycaemia (43.3% vs 17.9%; p=0.006). Mortality at 90 days and 1 year increased with higher admission glucose levels (p=0.03 and p=0.005, respectively), severe hyperglycaemia (>20 mmol/L) having a 1-year mortality of 34.3%. After accounting for confounding variables, admission glucose and length of stay remained significant predictors of 1-year mortality (p=0.034 and p=0.003, respectively). Hyperglycaemia is an important prognostic marker and may indicate a more severe illness. These patients should be highlighted for a greater level of care.

MO477: Predicting 1-Year Mortality After Haemodialysis Start: The Role of the Cha₂Ds₂-VASC Score

Abstract BACKGROUND AND AIMS Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant cause of morbidity, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. CHA2DS2VASc is a score system used in patients with atrial fibrillation to predict thromboembolic risk. However, it also appears to be useful to predict mortality risk. The aim of the study was to evaluate the CHA2D2SVASc score as a tool to predict 1-year mortality after starting haemodialysis and identify factors associated with higher mortality. METHOD Retrospective analysis of patients who started haemodialysis between January of 2014 and December of 2019 at Centro Hospitalar Universitário Lisboa Norte. We evaluated mortality within 1 year of starting haemodialysis. The CHA2D2SVASc score was calculated at the start of haemodialysis. Variables were submitted to univariate and multivariate analysis to determine factors predictive of 1-year mortality after HD start. We assessed the logistic regression method of the CHA2DS2VASc to predict 1-year mortality and the discriminatory ability was determined using the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS Of 856 patients analyzed, the mean age was 68.3 ± 15.5 years, the majority were male (61.1%) and Caucasian (84.5%). Mortality within 1 year after haemodialysis started was 17.8% (n = 152). The CHA2D2SVASc score was significantly higher (4.4 ± 1.7 versus 3.5 ± 1.8; P &amp;lt; .001) in patients who died and accurately predicted the 1-year risk of mortality {AUC: 0.646, [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.6–0.7]; P &amp;lt; .001}, with a sensitivity 71.7% and specificity of 49.1%, a positive predictive value of 23.9% and a negative predictive value of 89.2%. In the multivariate analysis, CHA2D2SVASc ≥3.5 (adjusted OR: 2.24, 95% CI 1.48–3.37; P &amp;lt; .001] and central venous catheter at dialysis start (adjusted HR: 3.06, 95% CI 1.93–4.85) were significant predictors of 1-year mortality. CONCLUSION CHA2D2SVASc score ≥ 3.5 and central venous catheter at haemodialysis start were predictors of 1-year mortality, allowing for risk stratification in haemodialysis patients.

Does Inpatient Mobilization Predict 1-Year Mortality After Femoral Neck Fracture Treated With Hemiarthroplasty?

To determine whether inpatient mobilization (defined as ambulation before hospital discharge) is associated with 1-year mortality and 90-day hospital readmission in patients treated with a hip hemiarthroplasty for a femoral neck fracture. Retrospective case-control. Academic Level 1 trauma center. Two hundred twelve consecutive femoral neck fractures were treated with hip hemiarthroplasties with a minimum of 1 year of follow-up. All study patients were treated with a hip hemiarthroplasty and weight-bearing as tolerated postoperative day 1. Patients were prescribed daily physical therapy with the goal of mobilization before discharge from hospital. Mortality at 1 year; hospital readmission within 90 days. Two hundred twelve patients were included in the study. One-year mortality was 29%. One hundred thirty-two (62%) patients were able to ambulate before hospital discharge. Ambulation with physical therapy before discharge from hospital was a significant predictor of 1-year mortality when compared with patients who were unable to ambulate (hazard ratio 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.94; P = 0.03), which equates to 43% reduction in risk of mortality. There was no difference in the 90-day readmission rates for ambulatory versus nonambulatory patients. Ambulation with physical therapy before discharge reduced the risk of 1-year mortality by 43%, without an effect on 90-day readmission. Sixty-two percentage of our cohort was able to ambulate before discharge. Future investigations are warranted to further identify those patients at heightened risk of mortality and readmission and the role of early rehabilitation in recovery. Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

How Do Geriatric Scores Predict 1-Year Mortality in Elderly Patients with Suspected Pneumonia?

Background: Pneumonia has an impact on long-term mortality in elderly patients. The risk factors associated with poor long-term outcomes are understated. We aimed to assess the ability of scores that evaluate patients’ comorbidities (cumulative illness rating scale—geriatric, CIRS-G), malnutrition (mini nutritional assessment, MNA) and functionality (functional independence measure, FIM) to predict 1-year mortality in a cohort of older patients having a suspicion of pneumonia. Methods: Our prospective study included consecutive patients over 65 years old and hospitalized with a suspicion of pneumonia enrolled in a monocentric cohort from May 2015 to April 2016. Each score was analysed in univariate and multivariate models and logistic regressions were used to identify contributors to 1-year mortality. Results: 200 patients were included (51% male, mean age 83.8 ± 7.7). Their 1-year mortality rate was 30%. FIM (p < 0.01), CIRS-G (p < 0.001) and MNA (p < 0.001) were strongly associated with poorer long-term outcomes in univariate analysis. CIRS-G (p < 0.05) and MNA (p < 0.05) were significant predictors of 1-year mortality in multivariate analysis. Conclusion: Long-term prognosis of patients hospitalized for pneumonia was poor and we identified that scores assessing comorbidities and malnutrition seem to be important predictors of 1-year mortality. This should be taken into account for evaluating elderly patients’ prognosis, levels and goals of care.

Urgent transcatheter aortic valve implantation in an all-comer population: a single-centre experience

BackgroundWhen compared with older reports of untreated symptomatic aortic valve stenosis (AoS), urgent transcatheter aortic valve implantation (u-TAVI) seems to improve mortality rates. We performed a single centre, retrospective cohort analysis to characterize our u-TAVI population and to identify potential predictors of worse outcomes.MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of 631 consecutive TAVI patients between 2013 and 2018. Of these patients, 53 were categorized as u-TAVI. Data was collected from the local electronic database.ResultsUrgent patients had more often a severely decreased left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF < 30%) and increased creatinine levels (115.5 [88–147] vs 94.5 [78–116] mmol/l; p = 0.001). Urgent patients were hospitalised for 18 [10–28] days before and discharged 6 [4–9] days after the implantation. The incidence of peri-procedural complications and apical implantations was comparable among the study groups. Urgent patients had higher in-hospital (11.3% vs 3.1%; p = 0.011) and 1-year mortality rates (28.2% vs 8.5%, p < 0.001). An increased risk of one-year mortality was associated with urgency (HR 3.5; p < 0.001), apical access (HR 1.9; p = 0.016) and cerebrovascular complications (HR 4.3; p = 0.002). Within the urgent group, the length of pre-hospital admission was the only significant predictor of 1-year mortality (HR 1.037/day; p = 0.003).ConclusionsCompared to elective procedures, u-TAVI led to increased mortality and comparable complication rates. This detrimental effect is most likely related to the length of pre-procedural hospitalisation of urgent patients.

Outcomes post fragility fracture among members of an integrated healthcare organization

SummaryThis study highlights an unmet need in osteoporosis management, suggesting that beyond bone mineral density and fracture history, gender, fracture type, and age should be considered for fracture risk assessment. Following fragility fracture, men, patients with a spine or hip fracture, and those aged ≥ 65 have a higher disease burden.IntroductionThe objective of this study was to characterize osteoporosis-related fracture incidence and identify predictors of subsequent fractures and mortality.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study, conducted within Kaiser Permanente Southern California, included patients aged ≥ 50 years with qualifying fractures from 1/1/2007 to 12/31/2016, identified from diagnosis/procedure codes. Rates for fracture incidence, mortality, and resource utilization in the year post-fracture are reported. Associations between index fracture types and demographic/clinical characteristics, and mortality, subsequent fracture, and rehospitalization outcomes were estimated.ResultsOf 63,755 eligible patients, 66.7% were ≥ 65 years and 69.1% female. Index fractures included nonhip/nonspine (64.4%), hip (25.3%), and spine (10.3%). Age-adjusted subsequent fracture rate/100 person-years was higher for those with an index spine (14.5) versus hip fracture (6.3). Hospitalization rate/100 person-years was highest for patients ≥ 65 (31.8) and for spine fractures (43.5). Men (vs women) had higher age-adjusted rates of hospitalization (19.4; 17.7), emergency room visits (73.8; 66.3), and use of rehabilitation services (31.7; 27.2). The 30-day age-adjusted mortality rate/100 person-years was 46.7, 32.4, and 15.5 for spine, hip, and nonspine/nonhip fractures. The 1-year age-adjusted mortality rate/100 person-years was 14.7 for spine and 15.6 for hip fractures. In multivariable analyses, spine and hip fractures (vs nonhip/nonspine fractures) were significant predictors of 1-year mortality, all-cause and osteoporosis-related hospitalization, and nursing home use (all P-values < 0.0001).ConclusionMorbidity is high in the year following a fragility fracture and men, patients with a spine or hip fracture, and those aged ≥ 65 have a greater disease burden.

Predicting 1-Year Mortality on Admission Using the Mayo Cardiac Intensive Care Unit Admission Risk Score

ObjectiveTo determine whether the Mayo Cardiac Intensive Care Unit (CICU) Admission Risk Score (M-CARS) accurately predicts 1-year mortality. MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed adult CICU patients admitted from January 1, 2007, through April 30, 2018, and calculated M-CARS using admission data. We examined the association between admission M-CARS, as continuous and categorical variables, and 1-year mortality. ResultsThis study included 12,428 unique patients with a mean age of 67.6±15.2 years (4686 [37.7%] female). A total of 2839 patients (22.8%) died within 1 year of admission, including 1149 (9.2%) hospital deaths and 1690 (15.0%) of the 11,279 hospital survivors. The 1-year survival decreased incrementally as a function of increasing M-CARS (P<.001), and all components of M-CARS were significant predictors of 1-year mortality (P<.001). The 1-year survival among hospital survivors decreased incrementally as a function of increasing M-CARS for scores below 3 (all P<.001); however, there was no further decrease in 1-year survival for hospital survivors with M-CARS of 3 or more (P=.99). The M-CARS components associated with 1-year mortality among hospital survivors included blood urea nitrogen, red blood cell distribution width, Braden skin score, and respiratory failure (all P<.001). ConclusionM-CARS predicted 1-year mortality among CICU admissions, with a plateau effect at high M-CARS of 3 or more for hospital survivors. Significant added predictors of 1-year mortality among hospital survivors included markers of frailty and chronic illness.

Development and validation of a prediction model for 1-year mortality among older adults with Hodgkin Lymphoma who receive dose-intense chemotherapy

BackgroundOlder adults with Hodgkin Lymphoma (HL) have poorer outcomes than younger patients. There are little data about which baseline patient and disease factors inform prognosis among older patients. We sought to create a prediction model for 1-year mortality among older patients with new HL who received dose-intense chemotherapy. MethodsWe included adults ≥65 years old with a new diagnosis of classical HL between 2000–2013 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare dataset who received full-regimen chemotherapy. Through a non-random 2:1 split, we created development and validation cohorts. Multiple imputation was used for missing data. Using stepwise selection and logistic regression, we identified predictive variables for 1-year mortality. The model was applied to the validation cohort. A final model was then fit in the full cohort. ResultsWe included 1315 patients. In the development cohort (n = 813), we identified significant predictors of 1-year mortality including age, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), B symptoms at diagnosis, and advanced stage at diagnosis. The c-statistic was 0.70. When this model was applied to the validation cohort (n = 502), the c-statistic was 0.65. Predictors of 1-year mortality in the final model were CCI (OR = 1.41), B symptoms (OR = 1.54), advanced stage (OR = 1.44), and older age at diagnosis (OR = 1.33). ConclusionWe present a prediction model for use among older adults with HL who receive intensive chemotherapy. We identify risk factors for death within 1 year of diagnosis. Future work will build upon prognostication and shared decision-making after diagnosis for this population.

Relationship between admission neutrophil/lymphocyte, thrombocyte/lymphocyte, and monocyte/lymphocyte ratios and 1-year mortality in geriatric hip fractures: Triple comparison.

Elderly patients with hip fractures have a high post-operative 1-year mortality rate. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship of the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), thrombocyte/lymphocyte ratio (TLR), and monocyte/lymphocyte ratio (MLR) with mortality. The data of 350 patients who suffered femoral intertrochanteric fractures between January 2015 and January 2020 were examined, and the demographic data of 124 patients who met the study criteria were evaluated. During the 1-year follow-up, 92 patients (74%) who continued their lives and 32 patients (25%) who died were divided into two groups: Group 1 (survivors) and Group 2 (non-survivors). NLR, TLO, MLO, presence of comorbidities, age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification, length of hospital stay, fracture type, and fracture pattern values were statistically compared between the two groups. NLR, TLR, and MLR are the laboratory parameters assessed within the scope of the study. Preoperatively, the mean NLR was 6.59 (1.61-26.29), mean TLR was 197.94 (86-516), and mean MLR was 0.73 (0.19-15.68). In this study, a significant relationship was found between NLR, TLR, and MLR values and the occurrence of post-operative 1-year mortality (p=0.01). In addition, the result was significant in the correlation between these parameters. Cutoff values were found to be 7.53 for NLR, 192 for TLR, and 0.54 for MLR in receiver operator characteristic curve analysis (p<0.01). NLR, TLR, and PLR are significant predictors of 1-year mortality in patients aged over 60 years with hip fractures.

Cardiopulmonary Hemodynamic Profile Predicts Mortality After Transcatheter Tricuspid Valve Repair in Chronic HeartFailure.

This study was designed to assess hemodynamic changes in response to transcatheter tricuspid valve edge-to-edge repair (TTVR) and to identify hemodynamic predictors associated with mortality. Severe tricuspid regurgitation (TR) is associated with high mortality. TTVR effectively alleviates heart failure symptoms, but comprehensive hemodynamic characterization of patients undergoing TTVR is currently lacking. This international, multicenter study included 236 patients undergoing TTVR. Data from clinical assessment, echocardiography, intraprocedural right heart catheterization, and noninvasive cardiac output measurement were analyzed. Hemodynamic predictors for mortality were identified using linear Cox regression analysis and were used for stratification of patients with subsequent analysis of survival time. Patients (median age 78 years, 53% women) were symptomatic (89% in New York Heart Association functional class III or IV) because of severe TR (grade≥3+ in 100%). TTVR significantly reduced TR at discharge (grade≥3+ in 16%; p<0.001), with a corresponding 19% reduction of the right atrial v wave (21mmHg vs. 16mmHg; p<0.001) and an improvement in cardiac output (from 3.5 to 4.0 l/min; p<0.01). Invasive mean pulmonary artery pressure, transpulmonary gradient, pulmonary vascular resistance, and right ventricular stroke work were significant predictors of 1-year mortality (p<0.05 for all). Hemodynamic stratification by mean pulmonary artery pressure and transpulmonary gradient best predicted 1-year survival (p<0.001). Although patients with pre-capillary dominant pulmonary hypertension showed an unfavorable prognosis (1-year survival 38%), patients without or with post-capillary pulmonary hypertension had favorable outcome (1-year survival 92% or 78%, respectively). Invasive assessment of cardiopulmonary hemodynamic status predicts survival after TTVR. Invasivehemodynamic characterization may help identify patients profiting most from TTVR.

CT fatty muscle fraction as a new parameter for muscle quality assessment predicts outcome in venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

Impaired skeletal muscle quality is a major risk factor for adverse outcomes in acute respiratory failure. However, conventional methods for skeletal muscle assessment are inapplicable in the critical care setting. This study aimed to determine the prognostic value of computed tomography (CT) fatty muscle fraction (FMF) as a biomarker of muscle quality in patients undergoing extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). To calculate FMF, paraspinal skeletal muscle area was obtained from clinical CT and separated into areas of fatty and lean muscle based on densitometric thresholds. The cohort was binarized according to median FMF. Patients with high FMF displayed significantly increased 1-year mortality (72.7% versus 55.8%, P = 0.036) on Kaplan–Meier analysis. A multivariable logistic regression model was built to test the impact of FMF on outcome. FMF was identified as a significant predictor of 1-year mortality (hazard ratio per percent FMF, 1.017 [95% confidence interval, 1.002–1.033]; P = 0.031), independent of anthropometric characteristics, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Simplified Acute Physiology Score, Respiratory Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Survival Prediction Score, and duration of ECMO support. To conclude, FMF predicted 1-year mortality independently of established clinical prognosticators in ECMO patients and may have the potential to become a new muscle quality imaging biomarker, which is available from clinical CT.

Abstract 16699: The Mayo Cardiac Intensive Care Unit Admission Risk Score Predicts One-Year Mortality

Introduction: The Mayo Clinic Cardiac Intensive Care Unit Admission Risk Score (M-CARS) has been shown to predict hospital mortality in the CICU population better than conventional critical care scoring models. We tested the hypothesis that M-CARS could similarly be used to predict one-year mortality. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed adult CICU patients admitted from 2007 to 2018. M-CARS was calculated using admission data. Groups were compared using Wilcoxon test for continuous variables and chi-squared test for categorical variables. Results: This study included 12428 unique patients with a mean age of 67 ± 15 years (37% females), of whom 11279 (90.8%) survived hospitalization and 2839 patients (22.8%) died within 1 year of admission. The 1-year survival decreased incrementally as a function of increasing M-CARS ( Figure 1A , p&lt;0.0001), and all components of M-CARS were significant predictors of 1-year mortality (p&lt;0.001). 1690 hospital survivors (15.0%) died within 1 year. The 1-year survival decreased incrementally as a function of increasing M-CARS for scores &lt;3 (all p&lt;0.001); however, there was no further adverse 1-year survival for patients with M-CARS ≥3 ( Figure 1B, p=0.99). M-CARS components associated with 1-year mortality among hospital survivors included blood urea nitrogen, red blood cell distribution width, Braden score, and respiratory failure (all p&lt;0.001), while cardiac arrest, cardiogenic shock, and anion gap were not. Conclusions: M-CARS accurately predicts 1-year mortality among CICU admissions, with a plateau effects at high M-CARS scores ≥3. Significant predictors of 1-year mortality among CICU survivors include frailty markers rather than admission severity.

The DANish Comorbidity Index for Acute Myocardial Infarction (DANCAMI): Development, Validation and Comparison with Existing Comorbidity Indices.

ObjectiveTo develop and validate the DANish Comorbidity index for Acute Myocardial Infarction (DANCAMI) for adjustment of comorbidity burden in studies of myocardial infarction prognosis.MethodsUsing medical registries, we identified patients with first-time myocardial infarction in Denmark during 2000–2013 (n=36,685). We developed comorbidity indices predicting 1-year all-cause mortality from all comorbidities (DANCAMI) and restricted to non-cardiovascular comorbidities (rDANCAMI). For variable selection, we eliminated comorbidities stepwise using hazard ratios from multivariable Cox models. We compared DANCAMI/rDANCAMI with Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices using standard performance measures (Nagelkerke’s R2, Harrell’s C-statistic, the Integrated Discrimination Improvement, and the continuous Net Reclassification Index). We assessed the significance of the novel DANCAMI variables not included in the Charlson Comorbidity Index. External validation was performed in patients with myocardial infarction in New Zealand during 2007–2016 (n=75,069).ResultsThe DANCAMI included 24 comorbidities. The rDANCAMI included 17 non-cardiovascular comorbidities. In the Danish cohort, the DANCAMI indices outperformed both the Charlson and the Elixhauser comorbidity indices on all performance measures. The DANCAMI indices included multiple variables that were significant predictors of 1-year mortality even after controlling for all variables in the Charlson Comorbidity Index. These novel variables included valvular heart disease (hazard ratio for 1-year mortality=1.25, 95% CI: 1.14–1.35), coagulopathy (1.13, 95% CI: 1.05–1.22), alcohol and drug abuse (1.35, 95% CI: 1.15–1.58), schizophrenia (1.60, 95% CI: 1.46–1.76), affective disorder (1.29, 95% CI: 1.22–1.36), epilepsy (1.26, 95% CI: 1.05–1.50), neurodegenerative disorder (1.30, 95% CI: 1.10–1.54) and chronic pancreatitis (1.71, 95% CI: 1.14–2.56). The results were supported by the external validation in New Zealand.ConclusionDANCAMI assessed comorbidity burden of patients with first-time myocardial infarction, outperformed existing comorbidity indices, and was generalizable to patients outside Denmark. DANCAMI is recommended as a standard approach for comorbidity adjustment in studies of myocardial infarction prognosis.

Prognostic value of laboratory values in older patients with cervical spine fractures

ObjectivesTo understand the prognostic value of laboratory markers at presentation on post-treatment survival of patients 50 and older following cervical spine fracture. Patients and MethodsWe obtained clinical data on patients 50 and older treated for cervical spine fracture in a single healthcare system (2006–2016). Our primary outcome consisted of 1-year mortality, with mortality within 3-months of presentation considered secondarily. Our primary predictors included serum glucose, serum creatinine, platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) at presentation. We used multivariable logistic regression to adjust for confounding from sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Point estimates and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) from the final model were refined using Bayesian regression techniques. ResultsWe included 1781 patients in this analysis, with an average age of 75.3 (SD 12.0). The mortality rate at 3-months was 12 % and 17 % at 1-year. In multivariable testing, neither elevated PLR or NLR were significant predictors of 1-year mortality. Elevated serum creatinine was associated with increased mortality at 1-year (OR 1.89; 95 % CI 1.30, 2.74), as was hyperglycemia (OR 1.50; 95 % CI 1.06, 2.13). Elevated serum creatinine remained influential (OR 1.64; 95 % CI 1.06, 2.54) on mortality at 3-months. ConclusionsThis is the first study to evaluate laboratory values at presentation in conjunction with survival following cervical fractures. The results can be used to help forecast natural history and in expectation management. They may also help formulate treatment plans, especially when the need for surgical intervention is not clearly defined.

Enterococcal bacteraemia 'silent but deadly': a population-based cohort study.

The high mortality rate of patients with enterococcal infections has been shown to be associated with the severity of underlying comorbidities. To characterise the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, outcomes and predictors of mortality in patients with enterococcal bacteraemia. This was a retrospective cohort study of all enterococcal bacteraemia episodes in the Barwon region between January 2010 and March 2017. We assessed the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, outcomes and predictors of mortality using descriptive statistics and simple and multiple logistic regression analyses. The incidence of enterococcal bacteraemia was 19.9/100 000 person-years. Males comprised 68.4%, and the median age was 71 years. Common comorbidities were gastrointestinal tract disease, urological disease, malignancies and cardiovascular disease. Infective endocarditis was observed in 15% of patients, and 1 of 27 also had colorectal cancer. Twelve patients referred for colonoscopy demonstrated previously undiagnosed colorectal neoplasia in 75% of these cases. The 30-day and 1-year mortality rates were 11.7 and 40.2% respectively. Sixty-nine cases with vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus were observed. Multiple logistic regression suggested that the presence of underlying urological malignancy (adjusted odds ratio = 3.57, 95% confidence intervals = 1.10-11.65, P = 0.035) and colorectal cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 4.47, 95% confidence intervals = 1.36-14.66, P = 0.014) were significant predictors of 1-year mortality. Microbiological cure was inversely associated with 30-day mortality. The presence of underlying urological and colorectal malignancy was a predictor of 1-year mortality. We identified the importance of evaluating patients with Enterococcus faecalis bacteraemia for underlying colorectal neoplasia. Routine colonoscopy is recommended in patients with E. faecalis bacteraemia or infective endocarditis with an unclear source of infection.

Suitability of the German version of the Manchester Triage System to redirect emergency department patients to general practitioner care: a prospective cohort study

ObjectivesTo investigate the suitability of the German version of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) as a potential tool to redirect emergency department (ED) patients to general practitioner care. Such tools...

Malnutrition and Mortality in Frail and Non-Frail Older Adults Undergoing Aortic Valve Replacement.

Older adults undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR) are at risk for malnutrition. The association between preprocedural nutritional status and midterm mortality has yet to be determined. The FRAILTY-AVR (Frailty in Aortic Valve Replacement) prospective multicenter cohort study was conducted between 2012 and 2017 in 14 centers in 3 countries. Patients ≥70 years of age who underwent transcatheter or surgical AVR were eligible. The Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form was assessed by trained observers preprocedure, with scores ≤7 of 14 considered malnourished and 8 to 11 of 14 considered at risk for malnutrition. The Short Performance Physical Battery was simultaneously assessed to measure physical frailty, with scores ≤5 of 12 considered severely frail and 6 to 8 of 12 considered mildly frail. The primary outcome was 1-year all-cause mortality, and the secondary outcome was 30-day composite mortality or major morbidity. Multivariable regression models were used to adjust for potential confounders. There were 1158 patients (727 transcatheter AVR and 431 surgical AVR), with 41.5% females, a mean age of 81.3 years, a mean body mass index of 27.5 kg/m2, and a mean Society of Thoracic Surgeons-Predicted Risk of Mortality of 5.1%. Overall, 8.7% of patients were classified as malnourished and 32.8% were at risk for malnutrition. Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form scores were modestly correlated with Short Performance Physical Battery scores (Spearman R=0.31, P<0.001). There were 126 deaths in the transcatheter AVR group (19.1 per 100 patient-years) and 30 deaths in the surgical AVR group (7.5 per 100 patient-years). Malnourished patients had a nearly 3-fold higher crude risk of 1-year mortality compared with those with normal nutritional status (28% versus 10%, P<0.001). After adjustment for frailty, Society of Thoracic Surgeons-Predicted Risk of Mortality, and procedure type, preprocedural nutritional status was a significant predictor of 1-year mortality (odds ratio, 1.08 per Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form point; 95% CI, 1.01-1.16) and of the 30-day composite safety end point (odds ratio, 1.06 per Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form point; 95% CI, 1.001-1.12). Preprocedural nutritional status is associated with mortality in older adults undergoing AVR. Clinical trials are needed to determine whether pre- and postprocedural nutritional interventions can improve clinical outcomes in these vulnerable patients.

Long-term effects of iron deficiency in patients with heart failure with or without anemia: the RAID-HF follow-up study.

Iron deficiency (ID) has been recognized as a relevant comorbidity in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF); however, study data have shown that diagnostic and therapeutic efforts on ID are primarily performed in patients with anemia. The RAID-HF registry investigated consecutive patients with ID and HFrEF in 11 heart centers in Germany and Switzerland. The present analysis focuses on 1-year follow-up data in patients with versus without anemia. In 505 patients with HFrEF and ID and 418 patients with HFrEF without ID 1-year follow-up was performed. Patients with ID had a higher long-term mortality compared to those without ID (19.5% vs. 13.7%, p = 0.02) and reported a lower quality of life. Only a minority of patients with ID (9.3%) received iron supplementation during long-term course, just 4.7% intravenously. Anemia was associated with an elevated mortality whereas ID versus no ID did not predict mortality in anemic patients (log-rank p = 0.78). However, in patients without anemia ID versus no ID predicted mortality (log-rank p = 0.002). In the adjusted analysis a significant interaction remained, with ID being a significant predictor of 1-year mortality in patients without anemia (HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.12-3.78), but not in anemic patients (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.65-1.49). RAID-HF demonstrates the impact of ID on long-term mortality and quality of life in patients with HFrEF and reveals an underuse of iron supplementation in current clinical practice. Particularly in patients without anemia the diagnosis of ID is of clinical relevance to identify patients at higher mortality risk.