Significant Average Effect Research Articles

Correcting misperceptions about trends and norms to address weak collective action — Experimental evidence from a recycling program

Finding ways to encourage collective action in contexts where only a minority adopts the desired behavior is central to solving many of today’s global environmental problems. We study how correcting people’s beliefs about social norms and behavioral trends encourages collective action in a setting where the desired behavior is not yet prevalent. In a field experiment, we test whether low sign-up rates for a recycling program in urban Peru can be increased by providing information (1) that most people regard participation in the program as important, i.e., on the “injunctive norm”, (2) on an increasing recent trend in sign-up rates. We find that the effectiveness of the treatments depends on people’s prior beliefs: Correcting inaccurate beliefs increases sign-up decisions significantly among people who either substantially underestimate the injunctive norm or who underestimate the positive trend. As this sub-group of people is in the minority in our set-up, we do not observe statistically significant average treatment effects. We further find that the effects of the treatments increase in the level of underestimation. Our evidence demonstrates that belief updating can be used effectively to encourage collective action where it is weak as long as a meaningful number of people underestimates the relevant trends and norms.

The impact of financial inclusion initiatives: Evidence from meta‐analysis

AbstractDeveloping an inclusive financial system is an important policy intervention to improve livelihood and reduce poverty. Despite this, the empirical evidence on the impacts of financial inclusion remains mixed. This study reports a meta‐analysis of studies on the impact of financial inclusion. The findings show that financial inclusion outcomes reflect small, positive and statistically significant average effects on consumption, income, asset and other poverty‐related indicators. The results of meta‐regression analysis also show that financial inclusion has a significant positive effect on household consumption. We discuss some of the sources of inconsistencies in financial inclusion studies, policy implications and future research directions.

Effectiveness of internet-delivered psychological treatments for children and adolescents with anxiety and/or depressive disorders: Systematic review and network meta-analysis

BackgroundAnxiety and depression symptomatology has increased in the child and adolescent population. Internet-delivered psychological treatments (IDPT) can help to reduce this symptomatology, attending to the largest possible population. AimTo conduct a systematic review and network meta-analysis of IDPT to reduce anxiety and depression symptoms in children and adolescents. MethodsThe search for studies was conducted in SCOPUS, PsycINFO, PSICODOC, PsycARTICLES and Medline, between 2000 and 2022, in December 2022. Studies were selected if they were conducted with a sample of children and/or adolescents with previous symptoms of anxiety and depression, had applied IDPT, and included at least two comparative groups with pretest-posttest measures. Network meta-analyses were separately performed for anxiety and depression outcomes. Publication bias was analyzed using Egger's test and funnel plots, and mixed-effects meta-regression models were applied to account for heterogeneity. Results37 studies were included in the meta-analysis, providing a total of 74 comparative groups. IDPT exhibited low-to-moderate, statistically significant average effect sizes when compared to both inactive and active controls. No statistical significance was found when IDPT was compared with other types of interventions. DiscussionIDPT is recommended to reduce anxiety and depression symptomatology in children and adolescents, but more studies are needed which compare treatments with other types of interventions, such as face-to-face therapy.

Paranormal beliefs and core knowledge confusions: A meta-analysis

This meta-analysis examines the relationship between paranormal beliefs and Core Knowledge Confusions (CKC), a concept introduced by Lindeman and Aarnio (2007) to explore the link between ontological errors and belief in the paranormal. The CKC, which uses metaphor classification to assess ontological confusion, suggests that cognitive processes organize information into ontologies, and our interpretation of literal versus metaphorical expressions reflects these categorizations. Despite advancements in education, ontological confusion persists, manifesting in various forms like mentalization of matter, physicalization of the mental, and biologization of the mental. Our analysis, encompassing 25 effect sizes with 16,129 participants from 11 countries and publications over 14 years, found a significant average effect size (r = 0.40) in the relationship between paranormal beliefs and the CKC, indicating a robust and consistent association across various populations and contexts. The study observed that contextual factors specific to data from Finland enhance the estimated magnitude of the effect size. Despite considerable heterogeneity and potential influences of unexamined moderators, the results suggest a universal cognitive pattern linking paranormal beliefs with certain types of ontological confusion. This meta-analysis underscores the need for further exploration into contextual variations in understanding the complex relationship between paranormal beliefs and ontological errors.

Learning optimal biomarker-guided treatment policy for chronic disorders.

Electroencephalogram (EEG) provides noninvasive measures of brain activity and is found to be valuable for the diagnosis of some chronic disorders. Specifically, pre-treatment EEG signals in the alpha and theta frequency bands have demonstrated some association with antidepressant response, which is well-known to have a low response rate. We aim to design an integrated pipeline that improves the response rate of patients with major depressive disorder by developing a treatment policy guided by the resting state pre-treatment EEG recordings and other treatment effects modifiers. First, we design an innovative automatic site-specific EEG preprocessing pipeline to extract features with stronger signals than raw data. We then estimate the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) using causal forests and use a doubly robust technique to improve efficiency in the estimation of the average treatment effect. We present evidence of heterogeneity in the treatment effect and the modifying power of the EEG features, as well as a significant average treatment effect, a result that cannot be obtained with conventional methods. Finally, we employ an efficient policy learning algorithm to learn an optimal depth-2 treatment assignment decision tree and compare its performance with Q-Learning and outcome-weighted learning via simulation studies and an application to a large multi-site, double-blind, randomized controlled clinical trial, EMBARC.

Efficacy of mobile phone intervention to increase male partner antenatal care attendance for HIV testing in Moshi municipal, Tanzania: a randomized controlled trial

BackgroundHIV partner counselling and testing in antenatal care (ANC) is a crucial strategy to raise the number of males who know their HIV status. However, in many settings like Tanzania, male involvement in antenatal care remains low, and there is a definite need for innovative strategies to increase male partner involvement. This study was designed to evaluate the efficacy of mobile phone intervention increase male partner ANC attendance for HIV testing in Moshi municipal, Tanzania.MethodsBetween April and July 2022, we enrolled pregnant women presenting to a first ANC visit at Majengo and St. Joseph reproductive health facilities without their male partners. Eligible pregnant women were randomly assigned to invitation of their male partners either via phone calls, text messages from clinic staff and verbal invites from pregnant partners (intervention arm) or verbal invites only from the pregnant partners (control arm). Neither healthcare provider nor participant were blinded. The primary outcome was the proportion of male partners who attended ANC with their pregnant partners during a follow-up period of two consecutive visits. The secondary outcome measure was HIV testing among male partners following the invitation. Participants were analyzed as originally assigned (intention to treat).ResultsA total of 350 pregnant women presenting to ANC for the first time were enrolled, with 175 women enrolled in each arm. The efficacy of male attendance with their pregnant women following the invitations was 83.4% (147/175) in the intervention arm and 46.3% (81/175) in the control arm. Overall, the results suggest a positive and statistically significant average treatment effect among men who received mobile phone intervention on ANC attendance. For the secondary outcome, the percent of male partners who accepted HIV counselling and testing was 99.3% (146/147) in the intervention arm and 93.8% (76/81) in the control arm. Married men were having higher odds of ANC attendance compared with single men (aOR:6.40(3.26–12.56), Males with multigravida women were having lower odds of ANC attendance compared with primigravida women (aOR:0.17(0.09–0.33).ConclusionThe study demonstrates that supplementing verbal invitations with mobile phone calls and text messages from clinic staff can significantly increase male partner ANC attendance and HIV testing. This combined approach is recommended in improving ANC attendance and HIV testing of male partners who do not accompany their pregnant partners to antenatal clinics in the first visits.Trial registrationPACTR202209769991162.

Transition to Permitless Open Carry and Association with Firearm-Related Suicide.

Firearm-related death rates continue to rise in the US. As some states enact more permissive firearm laws, we sought to assess the relationship between a change to permitless open carry (PLOC) and subsequent firearm-related death rates, a currently understudied topic. Using state-level data from 2013 to 2021, we performed a linear panel analysis using a state fixed-effects model. We examined total firearm-related death, suicide, and homicide rates separately. If a significant association between OC law and death rate was found, we then performed a difference-in-difference (DID) analysis to assess for a causal relationship between changing to PLOC and increased death rate. For significant DID results, we performed confirmatory DID separating firearm and nonfirearm death rates. Nineteen states maintained a no OC or permit-required law, whereas 5 changed to permitless and 26 had a PLOC before 2013. The fixed-effects model indicated more permissive OC law that was associated with increased total firearm-related deaths and suicides. In DID, changing law to PLOC had a significant average treatment effect on the treated of 1.57 (95% CI 1.05 to 2.09) for total suicide rate but no significant average treatment effect for the total firearm-related death rate. Confirmatory DID results found a significant average treatment effect on the treated of 1.18 (95% CI 0.90 to 1.46) for firearm suicide rate. OC law is associated with total firearm-related death and suicide rates. Based on our DID results, changing to PLOC is indeed strongly associated with increased suicides by firearm.

Effects of Face Mask Mandates on COVID-19 Transmission in 51 Countries: Retrospective Event Study.

The question of the utility of face masks in preventing acute respiratory infections has received renewed attention during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, given the inconclusive evidence from existing randomized controlled trials, evidence based on real-world data with high external validity is missing. To add real-world evidence, this study aims to examine whether mask mandates in 51 countries and mask recommendations in 10 countries increased self-reported face mask use and reduced SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers and COVID-19 case growth rates. We applied an event study approach to data pooled from four sources: (1) country-level information on self-reported mask use was obtained from the COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey, (2) data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker provided information on face mask mandates and recommendations and any other nonpharmacological interventions implemented, (3) mobility indicators from Google's Community Mobility Reports were also included, and (4) SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers and COVID-19 case growth rates were retrieved from the Our World in Data-COVID-19 data set. Mandates increased mask use by 8.81 percentage points (P=.006) on average, and SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers declined on average by -0.31 units (P=.008). Although no significant average effect of mask mandates was observed for growth rates of COVID-19 cases (-0.98 percentage points; P=.56), the results indicate incremental effects on days 26 (-1.76 percentage points; P=.04), 27 (-1.89 percentage points; P=.05), 29 (-1.78 percentage points; P=.04), and 30 (-2.14 percentage points; P=.02) after mandate implementation. For self-reported face mask use and reproduction numbers, incremental effects are seen 6 and 13 days after mandate implementation. Both incremental effects persist for >30 days. Furthermore, mask recommendations increased self-reported mask use on average (5.84 percentage points; P<.001). However, there were no effects of recommendations on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers or COVID-19 case growth rates (-0.06 units; P=.70 and -2.45 percentage points; P=.59). Single incremental effects on self-reported mask use were observed on days 11 (3.96 percentage points; P=.04), 13 (3.77 percentage points; P=.04) and 25 to 27 (4.20 percentage points; P=.048 and 5.91 percentage points; P=.01) after recommendation. Recommendations also affected reproduction numbers on days 0 (-0.07 units; P=.03) and 1 (-0.07 units; P=.03) and between days 21 (-0.09 units; P=.04) and 28 (-0.11 units; P=.05) and case growth rates between days 1 and 4 (-1.60 percentage points; P=.03 and -2.19 percentage points; P=.03) and on day 23 (-2.83 percentage points; P=.05) after publication. Contrary to recommendations, mask mandates can be used as an effective measure to reduce SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers. However, mandates alone are not sufficient to reduce growth rates of COVID-19 cases. Our study adds external validity to the existing randomized controlled trials on the effectiveness of face masks to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Depression among older adults before and during the pandemic: Follow-up assessment of a three-wave longitudinal observation

Previous studies have documented the average impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on depressive symptoms among the older population. However, discerning specific individuals at a higher risk and developing targeted support based on the significant average effect has proven challenging. In response to this gap, this study explored the influence of personal histories, encompassing pre-existing depression and personal depression trajectories, as well as personal experiences such as pandemic-related financial and health impacts, on deviations in individual depression curves during the pandemic. The results of the study indicated that individuals with pre-existing depressive symptoms or those affected by pandemic-related financial and health challenges experienced an upward deviation from their original depression trajectory, signifying a more severe level of depression during the pandemic. Interestingly, individuals who demonstrated a steeper growth in depression prior to the pandemic exhibited less severe depressive symptoms during this period, showcasing a downward deviation in their personal depression trajectory. These findings contribute valuable insights into the diverse personal factors driving depression during the pandemic. They also provide guidance on prioritizing the allocation of social support resources to effectively manage depression among the older population.

인과 포레스트를 이용한 벤처기업 사회적 활동의 매출액에 대한 효과 분석

The impact of corporate's social activities on sustainable management is increasing, and this is not just for large companies, but also expanding to small and medium-sized companies and venture companies. Accordingly, in this paper, the effect of the social activities of venture companies on sales was empirically analyzed through the Causal Forest method. Causal Forest is a machine learning model that allows the effect (treatment effect) of the variable of interest to be tested through causal reasoning after controlling several other characteristic variables that affect the objective variable through random forest modeling. As a result of empirical analysis using detailed survey data of venture companies from 2015 to 2020, it was confirmed that the social activities of venture companies had a significant average treatment effect (ATE) on sales. In addition, it was confirmed that the difference in the individual conditional average treatment effect (CATE) on the sales of social activities was significant depending on the size of the company's debt and the degree of investment activation. At this time, the treatment effect of companies with low total debt and low investment activation was widely distributed, which can be attributed to the characteristics of venture companies that focus on investment and technological innovation and show various corporate forms.

Investigating the Effect of Halal Awareness on Purchase Decision for Halal Products in Indonesia: A Metadata Analysis

The purpose of this study was to examine the development of research on the influence of halal awareness on purchasing decisions for halal products in Indonesia. The method used is meta-analysis by reviewing 9 studies published in 2018-2023 with the help of the OpenMEE application. The results of this study indicate that there is a positive influence from halal awareness on purchase decisions with a p-value obtained of 0.002 and an estimated value of 0.404, which indicates that the strength of the relationship is in the weak category. It was also found that the most significant average effect size was in the halal cosmetics subgroups with a fairly high estimated value so that it was concluded that halal consumer awareness was more visible in the halal cosmetic industry type.

A meta-analysis of teachers’ provision of structure in the classroom and students’ academic competence beliefs, engagement, and achievement

Structure reflects a variety of practices teachers use with the intent to guide students’ behavior and increase academic success. A research synthesis was conducted on the role of classroom structure in the academic engagement, disengagement, competence beliefs, and achievement of preschool through high school students. A meta-analysis of 191 samples from 165 correlational studies revealed statistically significant correlations with achievement (.11), engagement (.28), and competence beliefs (.22), and a statistically non-significant relationship with disengagement (–.08). A meta-analysis of 71 samples from 46 structure intervention studies revealed a positive statistically significant average effect (g) on achievement (0.33), engagement (0.46), and disengagement (–0.34), but a statistically non-significant effect for competence beliefs (0.26). Consistent with a dual process model of engagement, associations were stronger for engagement than disengagement. Results related to variation suggested some universality, particularly across grade levels, and underscored the importance of emphasizing anticipatory strategies, minimizing the controlling aspects of structure, and considering the broader context, including the country context, income background of students, or whether structure is paired with other psychological supports. Methodological features also explained variation, highlighting the importance of using methods that center teachers’ and students’ experiences and align with the nature of the focal outcome.

A meta-analytic investigation of problem gambling and self-harm: A causal inference perspective.

Problem gambling may be an underappreciated treatment target for reducing self-harm. Multivariate studies examining the relationship between problem gambling and self-harm have returned inconsistent results, perhaps due to insufficient power or differences in study quality. We conducted a series of meta-analyses examining the effect of problem gambling on self-harm outcomes of varying severity. We assessed the sensitivity of results to study characteristics, publication bias, and influential cases. To highlight threats to causal inference, we evaluated each study for residual confounding bias. In total, two types of meta-analyses were adequately powered: those assessing (a) the effect of problem gambling (binary) on suicide ideation and (b) problem gambling (binary) on suicide attempt (k = 14 unique studies between the two meta-analyses). For both meta-analyses, we found a positive, statistically significant average effect of problem gambling on the respective self-harm outcome. We did not detect any influential studies among these two meta-analyses, nor residual confounding. However, these findings are limited by the overall quality of included literature. PET-PEESE analysis detected substantial potential publication bias in the main results, with both meta-analytic effects being reduced to statistical nonsignificance. All included studies also used a cross-sectional design for their analysis of interest, thus simultaneity bias cannot be ruled out. While these findings suggest there is an appreciable relationship between problem gambling and at least two forms of self-harm (suicide ideation and attempts), well-designed longitudinal research is needed to make more firm conclusions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Commodity storage and the cost of capital: Evidence from Illinois grain farms

AbstractCommodity inventories are the key state variable determining the magnitude of commodity price responses to supply and demand shocks. Many firms in commodity supply chains use storage, but we know little about which firms and why. The economic theory of storage asserts that firms in a competitive market for inventories will store based on current and expected market prices and the per‐unit cost of storing. We empirically test at the firm‐level the importance of one major cost of storage: the opportunity cost of capital used to value foregone revenue from deferred commodity sales. To do so, we use panel data from thousands of Illinois farms who hold inventories of corn and soybeans. Although interest rates as a measure of capital costs are unlikely to vary widely across firms in this context, we exploit variation in the weighted average cost of capital due to cross‐firm differences in capital structure. Using two‐way fixed effects regressions, we find a statistically significant average effect of capital costs on inventory that masks notable heterogeneity across firms. Panel quantile regressions reveal two groups of firms: one whose inventory holdings are responsive to changes in the opportunity cost of storage and another whose are not. Our results suggest some farms behave like the profit‐maximizing ones from theory but substantial inframarginal commodity inventories are held by farms for other reasons.

Effect of participation in goat keeping on household food security:A case study of Dowa district, Malawi

Goat keeping is a common practice among rural farmers due to the adaptability of goats to harsh environments, their efficient forage conversion and rapid growth, and their multiple benefits, including the production of manure and high-quality milk. However, limited research has been done on the direct effect of participation in goat keeping on food security in Malawi. Therefore, this study investigated the effect of participation in goat keeping on household food security in Dowa district in Malawi using the propensity score-matching technique. The results reveal a positive correlation between goat farming and household food security. This was evident from the significant average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), which indicated a lower value of the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) for goat keepers compared to non-keepers. These findings highlight the potential of goat farming to enhance food security among rural households, emphasising the importance of promoting this type of farming at the household level.

LGBT discrimination and harassment, firm value, and reputation repair

This paper analyzes the market reaction to the reported discrimination against or harassment of LGBT stakeholders (i.e., employees and customers) using a unique hand-collected sample consisting of 167 events worldwide. The results show a negative and significant average effect following the announcement of an LGBT misconduct incident, with an around 0.5% abnormal decrease in market value over the event day and the next trading day. The average magnitude of impact is significantly lower after the #MeToo movement, suggesting that investors tend to be less indulgent regarding inappropriate behavior based on sexual orientation. We also find that firms experiencing a large negative magnitude of impact perform concrete corrective actions to repair their tarnished reputation.

A meta-analysis of online learning, blended learning, the flipped classroom and classroom instruction for pre-service and in-service teachers

This is a study of two populations of learners/teachers: Pre-service teacher students (i.e., formal education for teaching certification) and In-service teachers (i.e., engaged in professional development), and involves an examination of their use of internet-based instructional applications. In these studies, the technologies are: a) Online Learning [OL]; b) Blended Learning [BL] and c) Flipped Classrooms [FC]. Treatments were compared to standard face-to-face classroom instruction (CI) on three dependent measures analysed separately to produce 77 achievement measures in the first meta-analysis, 21 attitude/satisfaction measures in the second, and 22 studies of self-efficacy in the third. Achievement data yielded a statistically significant, moderate effect size (i.e., g+= 0.44) in favor of the combined OL, BL and FC approaches versus CI, although OL showed only a small positive effect versus CI. Attitude yielded a non-significant effect size comparing CI with technology-supported strategies (g+= 0.12). Interestingly, self-efficacy produced a significant and moderate average random effect size of g+ = 0.45. Perhaps the most impactful finding of this analysis is related to improved performance of BL/FC when contrasted with OL, yielding significantly positive differences in all three measures. This confirms that improved outcomes are the result of better pedagogy, not the mere presence of technology. Finally, self-efficacy was found to be meaningfully improved when using BL/FC. This is the first meta-analysis with this target population implicating self-efficacy. These two outcomes offer important implications for institutions regarding the future design of instructional delivery for both pre- and in-service teachers.

Effects of goal orientation on online learning: A meta-analysis of differences in Korea and US.

This meta-analysis examines the correlation between goal orientation and related variables in online learning to examine the influence of individual goal orientation on online learning as well as the differences arising from diverse cultural backgrounds. The study analyzed 27 papers from 2000 to 2022, comprising 8 US and 19 Korean studies. The average effect size of goal orientation and related variables, such as learning satisfaction, self-efficacy, and task value, were also analyzed. In addition, moderating effect according to the country and type of goal orientation was examined to evaluate differences arising from cultures. It was found that learning immersion, learning participation, and intention to continue learning, showed a high average effect size with goal orientation, with the other related variables also demonstrating a significant average effect size. There was no moderating effect of the state in the relationship between goal orientation and academic achievement, although a moderating effect existed according to the type of goal orientation. Based on the results of this study, we analyzed the variables that can reinforce learning along with goal orientation in online learning situations. Therefore, our findings will help formulate various educational support directions that can lead students to successfully gain knowledge through online learning, which has been growing expeditiously in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of long-term care insurance on the health status of middle-aged and older adults.

With the increase of aging population, long-term care insurance (LTCI) systems have become important for improving individuals' health. However, the effect of LTCI on health is unclear, especially in developing countries, owing to the lack of random policy shocks and comprehensive databases. This study investigates the Chinese LTCI pilot program, using four waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study database (sample aged ≥45years) from 2011 to 2018. The recent difference-in-differences approaches for staggered design, which are capable of dealing with the negative weights issue, are used to investigate changes in health status, measured by self-rated health (SRH), (instrumental) activities of daily living, self-rated depression, and cognition, in pilot and non-pilot cities before and after LTCI implementation. Long-term care insurance has a significant average effect on SRH improvement and a long-term positive effect on cognition for middle-aged and older populations. This study provides the first evaluation of LTCI policy on health outcomes using the recent difference-in-differences approaches. It provides evidence for the overall health improvement achieved through the LTCI and offers positive reinforcement and potential areas for improvement in establishing LTCI worldwide.

The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation, and Productivity

AbstractWe build a dynamic heterogeneous-firm model in which real depreciations raise export demand and the cost of importing intermediates, and also affect borrowing constraints and the profitability of engaging in research and development (R&amp;D). A number of stylized facts on manufacturing firms for a large set of countries discipline our estimation: Firms in emerging East Asia are very export oriented and rely little on imported intermediates, whereas the opposite holds for Latin America and Eastern Europe; firms from industrialized countries export as much as they import. Exporters experience an increase in cash flow, R&amp;D, and productivity growth in response to real exchange rate (RER) depreciations; importers experience the opposite outcomes. In counterfactual simulations of temporary RER movements, the effects on innovation and productivity growth are heterogeneous across regions, sizeable and persistent. In emerging Asia, real depreciations are associated with higher probabilities to engage in R&amp;D, faster growth of average firm-level productivity and cash flow, and higher export entry rates; we find negative average effects on these outcomes for firms in other emerging economies, and no significant average effects for firms in industrialized economies.