A method for predicting the image covariance resulting from total-variation-penalized iterative image reconstruction (TV-penalized IIR) is presented and demonstrated in a variety of contexts. The method is validated against the sample covariance from statistical noise realizations for a small image using a variety of comparison metrics. Potential applications for the covariance approximation include investigation of image properties such as object- and signal-dependence of noise, and noise stationarity. These applications are demonstrated, along with the construction of image pixel variance maps for two-dimensional pixel images. Methods for extending the proposed covariance approximation to larger images and improving computational efficiency are discussed. Future work will apply the developed methodology to the construction of task-based image quality metrics such as the Hotelling observer detectability for TV-based IIR.