Shorter Lag Time Research Articles

Responses of vegetation to hydroclimatic variables on the Loess Plateau after large scale vegetation restoration

AbstractUnderstanding plant‐water relations is essential for effective regional water management and promoting ecologically sustainable development on the Loess Plateau, especially in the context of the Grain for Green project initiated in 1999. This study evaluated the variations in vegetation variables (leaf area index, enhanced vegetation index, solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence and gross primary production) and hydroclimatic variables (precipitation, total water storage, aridity index and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) from 2003 to 2020, along with their interactions across the Loess Plateau. Our analysis revealed a general increase in vegetation variables, with the largest increase observed in the forest expansion areas. Precipitation and the aridity index exhibited significant upwards trends, while total water storage showed a significant decline, particularly in the forest expansion areas. Vegetation variables were more sensitive to changes in total water storage across the Loess Plateau. In the northwest region, where large‐scale croplands and grasslands expansion occurred, vegetation variables also showed sensitivity to precipitation. Lag effect analysis revealed short time lags (1–3 months) between vegetation and hydroclimatic variables, expect for total water storage (6 months). Overall, human activities and climate factors contributed 58.4% and 41.6% to the increase in leaf area index, and 52.2% and 47.8% to the increase in gross primary production, respectively. In relatively arid environments, precipitation contributed over 50% to the observed vegetation greening. This study underscores the increasingly significant role of human activities in driving vegetation greening on the Loess Plateau, particularly in large‐scale afforestation areas.

Seasonal nitrate variation as a tracer of preferential flow in bedrock aquifers

Short-term nitrate variations in streams are common, but the extent of groundwater contributions to such variability has been unclear. Analysis of well, spring and stream nitrate concentrations plus well water levels and stream flow for a chalk aquifer in Dorset (UK) shows that nitrate variation in streams lags discharge peaks by days to weeks. Spring monitoring also shows a short lag time, showing that high nitrate concentrations are rapidly transmitted from aquifers to streams. The lag time reflects the difference between the celerity (pressure wave speed) and the advective velocity of groundwater flow through the fracture network. Results give celerities of ∼500 m/d, advective velocities of 100–200 m/d, and kinematic porosities of ∼0.001. In addition, long-term nitrate data gives time lags of several decades, reflecting the matrix porosity of ∼0.3. Consequently, nitrate can be used an environmental tracer for both preferential flow through fracture networks and for retarded matrix flow and storage in this dual-porosity bedrock aquifer. Dual porosity is common in bedrock aquifers, so it is possible that this methodology may be widely applicable to understand the hydraulic characteristics of bedrock aquifers and to explain short-term nitrate variation in streams.

Adjusting the timing of inseminations to the time lag on luteolysis alerts results in higher conception in dairy cattle

Dairy cow fertility is a complex trait that depends on the cow's physiological status, the farm's environmental and management conditions, and their interactions. Already the slightest improvement in fertility can positively impact a farm's profitability and sustainability. In research, milk progesterone (P4) has often been used as an accurate and feasible way to identify a dairy cow's reproduction status. Moreover, in Europe and Canada, it has been used to improve fertility management on commercial farms as it allows to accurately identify reproduction issues, pregnancy and the optimal insemination window. An on-farm P4 device (OPD) automatically samples, measures and monitors the milk P4 concentration of individual cows. To this end, the P4 data is smoothed to be robust for measurement errors and outliers, and fixed thresholds are used to estimate the time of luteolysis preceding ovulation, thereby generating a luteolysis alert (LA). By smoothing the P4 data, the OPD introduces a time lag on the LA. Variation in this time lag is not considered in the estimation of the optimal insemination window that is advised to the farmer. Ignoring this variation might decrease the accuracy of the optimal insemination window and, therefore, decreases the likelihood of conception. We hypothesize that considering the length of the time lag and adapting the advice accordingly improves the conception rate. This observational retrospective study uses an extensive data set from 17 commercial dairy farms that are equipped with an OPD. We estimated the time lag on the alerts and evaluated their relationship with the interval from LA to insemination for successful (n = 3721) and unsuccessful inseminations (n = 3896) separately. Results showed that the probability of conception increases when a longer LA time lag is compensated with a shorter interval from LA to insemination and vice versa. In addition, for successful inseminations, we found a clear negative relation between the time lag and the interval from LA to insemination and the interval was significantly shorter when the time lag of the LA was longer. This negative relation between time lag and interval from LA to insemination was less pronounced for unsuccessful inseminations. Additionally, we evaluated the conception rates for inseminations that are performed too early, in time or too late with respect to the optimal insemination window advised by the OPD, in function of their associated time lags. We found that, for inseminations that were preceded by a short time lag (<8 h), the conception rate was 17.5 percentage points higher when cows were inseminated later than advised. Likewise, when inseminations were preceded by a long time lag (≥24 h), we found that the conception rate was 13 percentage points higher when cows were inseminated earlier than advised. Our results suggest that farmers using an OPD could potentially increase their conception success by compensating the variable time lag on the LA by adapting the interval from alert to insemination accordingly. This could be used to develop reproductive management strategies to improve reproductive performance on those farms, which can positively impact their sustainability.

Binning method for artifact-free time-tag based correlation function calculations.

Correlation functions are nowadays routinely computed using time-tagged photon information instead of a hardware autocorrelator. The algorithm developed by Laurence et al. [Opt. Lett.31, 829 (2006)10.1364/OL.31.000829] is a powerful example. Despite its ease of implementation and fast computation process, it presents a prevalent noisy feature at the short time-lag range when computed on commonly used logarithmically spaced bins. We identified that arbitral logarithmic spacing produces the mismatch between the edges of generated bins and acquisition frequency, resulting in an aliasing artifact at the short time-lag range of the correlation function. We introduce a binning method that considers the acquisition frequency during the bin generation. It effectively eliminates the artifact and improves the accuracy of the autocorrelation. Applying the binning method herein can be particularly crucial when one extracts photophysical processes from fluorescence correlation spectroscopy or the diffusion coefficient of nanoparticles from dynamic light scattering at the time range below 10-5 s lag time.

Divergent rainfall infiltration patterns on the Chinese Loess Plateau between growing and non-growing seasons after long-term revegetation

Rainfall infiltration into hillslopes on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) undergoes noticeable changes during the growing season following long-term revegetation. However, infiltration patterns during the non-growing season have been understudied. In this study, we monitored soil moisture over three years (May 2016-December 2018) at 10-minute intervals, spanning five soil depths (10, 20, 40, 60, and 100 cm). Monitoring was conducted in both a forestland catchment and an adjacent grassland catchment on the CLP, with two monitoring sites per catchment: one downhill in the gully, and the other uphill on the slope. Our findings reveal pronounced seasonal variations in meteorological conditions and vegetation index. We observed divergent rainfall infiltration patterns and their governing factors between the growing (May to October) and non-growing seasons (November to April). During the growing season, rainfall facilitated a quicker response with shorter lag time (23.34 h vs. 56.84 h in the non-growing season) and noticeable soil moisture increments (up to 35.7 % cm3/cm3 vs. only up to 6.4 % cm3/cm3). The wetting depth often extended to 40–100 cm (compared to 10–40 cm in the non-growing season), with a higher wetting front velocity (17.44 mm/h vs. 6.24 mm/h) and an increased occurrence frequency of preferential flow (19.77 % vs. 9.72 %). The impact of rainfall amount and peak intensity on infiltration was more pronounced during the non-growing season, whereas, in the growing season, infiltration was additionally influenced by antecedent moisture conditions and vegetation type. Notably, in the growing season, the enhanced soil moisture recharge due to rainfall infiltration exceeded the rise in evapotranspiration, resulting in higher soil water storage. The findings of this study shed new light on seasonal infiltration dynamics on the greening CLP, contributing valuable insights into hillslope hydropedological processes post-revegetation.

Nitrate trend reversal in Dutch dual-permeability chalk springs, evaluated by tritium-based groundwater travel time distributions

Historical use of fertilizer and manure on farmlands is known to have a lasting impact on ecosystems and water resources, but few studies assess the legacy of nitrate pollution on groundwater and surface water after farming applications were reduced. We studied the response of nitrate in spring water to a reduction of nitrogen fertilizer applications in agriculture realized since the mid-1980s. We assessed the travel time distribution of groundwater based on a time series of tritium measurements for 90 springs and small brooks that drain a dual porosity chalk aquifer. The travel time distributions were constrained using the tritium data in combination with time series of nitrate concentrations, applying a shape-free travel time distribution model. A clear trend reversal of nitrate concentrations was observed and simulated for springs with a large fraction of young water (< 30 years old) whereas the nitrate response in springs with relatively older water was attenuated and delayed. We conclude that obtaining a time series of tritium data helps to constrain age distributions of water that is discharged from dual permeability aquifers. The fraction of water aged <30 years was a meaningful parameter to distinguish between different types of springs. Nitrate trends in springs that drain large fractions of young water (> 0.6) show higher peak concentrations, shorter lag-time between leaching and outflow peaks and steeper declines after trend reversal, relative to trends in springs which are dominantly fed by older groundwater. The study thus shows that the nitrate legacy of groundwater systems is strongly determined by the range of their travel time distributions, and trend reversal in receiving springs and surface waters may appear within 10 to 15 years after measures to reduce nitrate losses from farming.

Osmotic stress response of the coral and oyster pathogen Vibrio coralliilyticus: acquisition of catabolism gene clusters for the compatible solute and signaling molecule myo-inositol.

Marine bacteria experience fluctuations in osmolarity that they must adapt to, and most bacteria respond to high osmolarity by accumulating compatible solutes also known as osmolytes. The osmotic stress response and compatible solutes used by the coral and oyster pathogen Vibrio coralliilyticus were unknown. In this study, we showed that to alleviate osmotic stress V. coralliilyticus biosynthesized glycine betaine (GB) and transported into the cell choline, GB, ectoine, dimethylglycine, and dimethylsulfoniopropionate, but not myo-inositol. Myo-inositol is a stress protectant and a signaling molecule that is biosynthesized and used by algae. Bioinformatics identified myo-inositol (iol) catabolism clusters in V. coralliilyticus and other Vibrio, Photobacterium, Grimontia, and Enterovibrio species. Growth pattern analysis demonstrated that V. coralliilyticus utilized myo-inositol as a sole carbon source, with a short lag time of 3 h. An iolG deletion mutant, which encodes an inositol dehydrogenase, was unable to grow on myo-inositol. Within the iol clusters were an MFS-type (iolT1) and an ABC-type (iolXYZ) transporter and analyses showed that both transported myo-inositol. IolG and IolA phylogeny among Vibrionaceae species showed different evolutionary histories indicating multiple acquisition events. Outside of Vibrionaceae, IolG was most closely related to IolG from a small group of Aeromonas fish and human pathogens and Providencia species. However, IolG from hypervirulent A. hydrophila strains clustered with IolG from Enterobacter, and divergently from Pectobacterium, Brenneria, and Dickeya plant pathogens. The iol cluster was also present within Aliiroseovarius, Burkholderia, Endozoicomonas, Halomonas, Labrenzia, Marinomonas, Marinobacterium, Cobetia, Pantoea, and Pseudomonas, of which many species were associated with marine flora and fauna.IMPORTANCEHost associated bacteria such as Vibrio coralliilyticus encounter competition for nutrients and have evolved metabolic strategies to better compete for food. Emerging studies show that myo-inositol is exchanged in the coral-algae symbiosis, is likely involved in signaling, but is also an osmolyte in algae. The bacterial consumption of myo-inositol could contribute to a breakdown of the coral-algae symbiosis during thermal stress or disrupt the coral microbiome. Phylogenetic analyses showed that the evolutionary history of myo-inositol metabolism is complex, acquired multiple times in Vibrio, but acquired once in many bacterial plant pathogens. Further analysis also showed that a conserved iol cluster is prevalent among many marine species (commensals, mutualists, and pathogens) associated with marine flora and fauna, algae, sponges, corals, molluscs, crustaceans, and fish.

Estimated Time of Arrival: Impact of Healthcare Disparities on Access to and Outcomes of Multidisciplinary Cleft Lip and Palate Care.

To determine the impact of sociodemographic and clinical factors on patient presentation into the cleft care pathway and determine how delayed interventions may affect post-surgical outcomes. Retrospective study. Multidisciplinary craniofacial clinics of two university hospitals. 135 patients with cleft lip and/or palate. Primary cheiloplasty, primary palatoplasty. Age at initial presentation, age at first surgery, lag time, delayed surgery, rate of return to the emergency department (ED), readmission rate, reoperations, and oronasal fistula development. Patients referred by OBGYN who underwent cheiloplasty had an earlier age at initial presentation (p < 0.01), earlier age at first surgery (p = 0.01), and a shorter lag time (p < 0.01) compared to children from other referral pathways. African American children had an older age at first surgery (p = 0.01) and a longer lag time (p = 0.02) when compared to non-African American children. Children with syndromes had an older age at first surgery (p < 0.01) and a longer lag time (p < 0.01) than children without syndromes. Patient race, cleft type, and syndromic status increased the odds of receiving delayed surgery. Patients who received delayed palatoplasty returned to the ED at a higher rate than patients who received non-delayed palatoplasty (p = 0.02). Our data suggest that referral source, race, and syndromic status influence the timeliness of cleft care. Surgeons should develop strong referral networks with local OBGYNs and hospitals to allow for an early entry into the cleft care pathway.

A benchmark of individual auto-regressive models in a massive fMRI dataset

Abstract Dense functional magnetic resonance imaging datasets open new avenues to create auto-regressive models of brain activity. Individual idiosyncrasies are obscured by group models, but can be captured by purely individual models given sufficient amounts of training data. In this study, we compared several deep and shallow individual models on the temporal auto-regression of BOLD time-series recorded during a natural video-watching task. The best performing models were then analyzed in terms of their data requirements and scaling, subject specificity, and the space-time structure of their predicted dynamics. We found the Chebnets, a type of graph convolutional neural network, to be best suited for temporal BOLD auto-regression, closely followed by linear models. Chebnets demonstrated an increase in performance with increasing amounts of data, with no complete saturation at 9 h of training data. Good generalization to other kinds of video stimuli and to resting-state data marked the Chebnets’ ability to capture intrinsic brain dynamics rather than only stimulus-specific autocorrelation patterns. Significant subject specificity was found at short prediction time lags. The Chebnets were found to capture lower frequencies at longer prediction time lags, and the spatial correlations in predicted dynamics were found to match traditional functional connectivity networks. Overall, these results demonstrate that large individual functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) datasets can be used to efficiently train purely individual auto-regressive models of brain activity, and that massive amounts of individual data are required to do so. The excellent performance of the Chebnets likely reflects their ability to combine spatial and temporal interactions on large time scales at a low complexity cost. The non-linearities of the models did not appear as a key advantage. In fact, surprisingly, linear versions of the Chebnets appeared to outperform the original non-linear ones. Individual temporal auto-regressive models have the potential to improve the predictability of the BOLD signal. This study is based on a massive, publicly-available dataset, which can serve for future benchmarks of individual auto-regressive modeling.

High potential lignocellulose-degrading microbial seed exploration from various biogas plants for methane production

Converting lignocellulosic materials into renewable energy through anaerobic digestion (AD) often has low degradation efficiency and thus needs improvement. Inoculum seeds from biogas plants fed with cow manure (CM), pig manure (PM), Napier grass (NG), and goat manure (GM) were explored for high-potential lignocellulose-degrading inocula based on the biochemical methane potential. Overall, CM, PM, and GM seeds could degrade lignocellulose. However, PM inoculum exhibited the highest CH4 production rate from cellulose powder, xylan, and Napier grass degradation by 46.32, 49.61, and 18.56 NmL/gVSadded·d, indicating the shortest lag phase but lagged behind GM and CM for alkali lignin. Microbial community analysis revealed lignocellulose-degrading microorganisms in the inocula. A high relative abundance of cellulose-degrading bacteria, such as Anaerolineaceae, Romboutsia, Bacteroidetes vadinHA17, and Clostridium sensu stricto 1, was detected. Anaerobic lignin-degrading bacteria were found in CM, PM, and GM inocula. Moreover, Bathyarchaeia from the archaeal group involved in lignocellulose degradation was found in CM and GM inocula. Keystone methanogens for methanogenesis were also detected in all inocula. PM inoculum possesses a promising inoculum seed for shortening the start-up period of the lignocellulose-degrading reactor with high AD performance and stability as it provides a short lag time and a high rate of methanogenesis.

Eocene exhumation of the High Andes at ~30°S differentiated by detrital multimethod U-Pb-He thermochronology

Abstract The southern Central Andes (~25–40°S) exhibit a complex tectonic history, crucial for understanding orogenic processes in subduction-related orogens, yet debate on the timing and mechanisms of early Cenozoic topographic growth persists. We present double-dated detrital zircon U-Pb and (U-Th)/He thermochronology data from the early Oligocene–Miocene Bermejo Basin at ~30°S to investigate source unroofing during development of the High Andes. (U-Th)/He results yield dates of ca. 565–16 Ma (n = 73), with distinct detrital modes that indicate a mixing of sediment sources characterized by variable cooling and exhumation histories. We employ a novel approach for modeling detrital thermochronology data that leverages the shared basin subsidence history of multiple detrital modes to resolve provenance and source unroofing histories. Results from the lower Oligocene Vallecito Formation (northwestern Argentina) reveal that detritus was sourced from Permian–Triassic Choiyoi Group rocks that underwent rapid late Eocene cooling, indicated by short lag time (2–5 m.y.) between source cooling and deposition. Our findings are consistent with bedrock studies of Eocene exhumation in the High Andes and establish source-to-basin connectivity during this time. Other detrital modes with pre-Cenozoic cooling histories were derived from Carboniferous Elqui-Colangüil and Choiyoi Group rocks or recycled from Paleozoic basins. We propose that an early Oligocene drainage divide in the High Andes was located west of the Punilla–La Plata fault, an active thrust front at ~30°S. These findings challenge Paleogene neutral stress-state models for the Andes and underscore the importance of improved knowledge of erosion and deformation histories for refining models of Andean orogenesis.

HIV infection and ART use are associated with altered plasma clot characteristics in Black South Africans.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) are both associated with hypercoagulability. Altered clot properties could be a potential mechanism thereof. We aimed to investigate the association of HIV and ART, with fibrinogen and plasma clot properties in a group of Black South Africans. At baseline, 151 newly diagnosed people living with HIV (PLWH) and 176 controls were recruited. Some PLWH subsequently commenced with ARTs (n = 70) while others remained ART-naïve (n = 81). Fibrinogen and clot properties (turbidity assay) were investigated from baseline to 5-year follow-up. A sub-group of 21 women (n = 10 ART-treated; n = 11 ART-naïve) with HIV was systematically selected and matched with 12 controls, and additional clot properties (rheometry, permeability and fibre diameter) were investigated. Fibrinogen was lower in the HIV groups compared to the controls, while % γ' fibrinogen was higher. PLWH had shorter lag times and lower maximum absorbance than the controls (p<0.05). Their CLTs on the other hand were longer. Most variables increased over time in all groups, but differences in the degree of change over time was observed for lag time (p = 0.024) and permeability (p = 0.03). Participants who commenced with ART had a tendency of delayed clot formation (p = 0.08) and increased clot permeability (p = 0.005). PLWH had lower total fibrinogen concentration and formed less dense clots. They also formed clots that were more difficult to lyse, which likely not resulted from altered clot properties. ART use (NNRTI's) had a moderately protective effect, delaying clot formation, and increasing clot permeability.

Polymeric Microneedles Enhance Transdermal Delivery of Therapeutics.

This research presents the efficacy of polymeric microneedles in improving the transdermal permeation of methotrexate across human skin. These microneedles were fabricated from PLGA Expansorb® 50-2A and 50-8A and subjected to comprehensive characterization via scanning electron microscopy, Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy, and mechanical analysis. We developed and assessed a methotrexate hydrogel for physicochemical and rheological properties. Dye binding, histological examinations, and assessments of skin integrity demonstrated the effective microporation of the skin by PLGA microneedles. We measured the dimensions of microchannels in the skin using scanning electron microscopy, pore uniformity analysis, and confocal microscopy. The skin permeation and disposition of methotrexate were researched in vitro. PLGA 50-8A microneedles appeared significantly longer, sharper, and more mechanically uniform than PLGA 50-2A needles. PLGA 50-8A needles generated substantially more microchannels, as well as deeper, larger, and more uniform channels in the skin than PLGA 50-2A needles. Microneedle insertion substantially reduced skin electrical resistance, accompanied by an elevation in transepidermal water loss values. PLGA 50-8A microneedle treatment provided a significantly higher cumulative delivery, flux, diffusion coefficient, permeability coefficient, and predicted steady-state plasma concentration; however, there was a shorter lag time than for PLGA 50-2A needles, base-treated, and untreated groups (p < 0.05). Conclusively, skin microporation using polymeric microneedles significantly improved the transdermal delivery of methotrexate.

Cross-shelf transport of high chlorophyll-a coastal waters by frontal eddies in the south of Java sea

Intense mesoscale eddy activity has been observed off the southern Java coast (SJC), yet its impact on local ecosystems remains largely unknown. To investigate this, we examined remotely sensed altimetry, chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), and sea surface temperature (SST) data, focusing on their response to eddies in the region. Our eddy detection and tracking analysis revealed a unique cyclonic frontal eddy near the SJC coast and a large anticyclonic eddy offshore, active from July to September 2019. The cyclonic frontal eddy induced water transport through eddy filaments, upwelled subsurface cold water, and enhanced Chl-a concentrations by horizontally entraining Chl-a-rich shelf water offshore. The anticyclonic eddy then contributed to further distributing this enriched water southward. The mean cross-shelf transport associated with the frontal eddy was estimated at 1.80–2.33 Sv offshore, exporting approximately 1.87–2.40 × 103 tons of Chl-a to the Indian Ocean during its lifetime. Additionally, the spatial cross-correlation analysis of zonal and meridional wind stress with Chl-a revealed relatively high correlation values (0.6–1) and short lag times (<5 days) in offshore areas, indicating that the role of wind in the Chl-a advection cannot be ignored. We propose a three-stage mechanism to explain the presence of high Chl-a offshore:1) Wind-driven upwelling intensifies coastal nutrients, elevating Chl-a concentrations in coastal waters, 2) Frontal cyclonic eddy facilitates the retention and offshore export of these upwelling-enriched waters. and 3) Anticyclonic eddy advects these nutrient-rich waters further south. The combination of enhanced coastal upwelling and eddies can explain nutrient-rich coastal waters in offshore regions.

Volatility Analysis of Financial Time Series Using the Multifractal Conditional Diffusion Entropy Method

In this article, we introduce the multifractal conditional diffusion entropy method for analyzing the volatility of financial time series. This method utilizes a q-order diffusion entropy based on a q-weighted time lag scale. The technique of conditional diffusion entropy proves valuable for examining bull and bear behaviors in stock markets across various time scales. Empirical findings from analyzing the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) indicate that employing multi-time lag scales offers greater insight into the complex dynamics of highly fluctuating time series, often characterized by multifractal behavior. A smaller time scale like t=2 to t=256 coincides more with the state of the DJI index than larger time scales like t=256 to t=1024. We observe extreme fluctuations in the conditional diffusion entropy for DJI for a short time lag, while smoother or averaged fluctuations occur over larger time lags.

Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?

Abstract. Floods are the primary natural hazard in the French Mediterranean area, causing damages and fatalities every year. These floods are triggered by heavy precipitation events (HPEs) characterized by limited temporal and spatial extents. A new generation of regional climate models at the kilometer scale have been developed, allowing an explicit representation of deep convection and improved simulations of local-scale phenomena such as HPEs. Convection-permitting regional climate models (CPMs) have been scarcely used in hydrological impact studies, and future projections of Mediterranean floods remain uncertain with regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, we use the CNRM-AROME CPM (2.5 km) and its driving CNRM-ALADIN RCM (12 km) at the hourly timescale to simulate floods over the Gardon d'Anduze catchment located in the French Mediterranean region. Climate simulations are bias-corrected with the CDF-t method. Two hydrological models, a lumped and conceptual model (GR5H) and a process-based distributed model (CREST), forced with historical and future climate simulations from the CPM and from the RCM, have been used. The CPM model confirms its ability to better reproduce extreme hourly rainfall compared to the RCM. This added value is propagated on flood simulation with a better reproduction of flood peaks. Future projections are consistent between the hydrological models but differ between the two climate models. Using the CNRM-ALADIN RCM, the magnitude of all floods is projected to increase. With the CNRM-AROME CPM, a threshold effect is found: the magnitude of the largest floods is expected to intensify, while the magnitude of the less severe floods is expected to decrease. In addition, different flood event characteristics indicate that floods are expected to become flashier in a warmer climate, with shorter lag time between rainfall and runoff peak and a smaller contribution of base flow, regardless of the model. This study is a first step for impact studies driven by CPMs over the Mediterranean.

Determination of the process effect on cocoa butter crystallization by rheometer: Kinetic modeling by Gompertz equation.

In this study, the effects of temperature (22, 24, 26, 28, and 30°C) and strain (0.1%, 1%, and 5%) on cocoa butter (CB) crystallization were investigated by oscillatory test, and the four-parameter Gompertz model was used to interpret the effect of parameters on pre-crystallization, nucleation, and crystal growth stages of CB. Lag time and growth rate were calculated using the Gompertz model using time-dependent storage modulus (G') data. According to the results, CB crystallization at 26°C with a 1% strain value had the highest growth rate value, the shortest lag time, and the formation of βv polymorph type. Followingly, polymorphic types of the CB crystals were determined based on the melting points of polymorphs via the temperature ramp step, and the results obtained were correlated with a polarized light microscope. In conclusion, using a rheometer in both the observation of the pre-crystallization process and the determination of polymorph types is very important for research and development studies in the chocolate industry for process and formulation optimization. PRACTICAL APPLICATION: This study demonstrates the feasibility of a novel approach for investigating crystallization and oscillatory shear of CB using a rheometer, both for observing crystallization kinetics and determining polymorph type, accompanied by the Gompertz equation to model the crystallization kinetics. According to the results, the effect of process parameters (temperature and shear) on the crystallization behavior of CB can be observed by rheometer, which can provide a detailed perspective for chocolate manufacturers and researchers in research and development studies.

Decision for Carpal Tunnel Surgery: High-deductible Health Plans versus Traditional Health Plans.

Delay in surgical treatment for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) may result in long-term decreased functional outcomes. Few investigators have examined the relationship between type of health insurance plan and time to definitive treatment of CTS following diagnosis. We investigated the relationship between insurance type, treatment decision, and the time between diagnosis and surgery across groups. This was a retrospective cohort study using the MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database 2011-2020. We used χ2 tests, linear regression, and logistic regression models to analyze demographic data and the time lag interval between CTS diagnosis and treatment. Overall, 28% of high-deductible health plan (HDHP) patients underwent carpal tunnel release, compared with 20% of traditional insurance patients (P < 0.001). HDHPs are defined by the internal revenue service as a deductible of $1400 for an individual or $2800 for a family per year. The odds of undergoing surgery versus no treatment for HDHP patients were 47% higher than traditional patients (P < 0.001). Among the patients who underwent surgery, HDHP patients underwent surgery 65 days earlier on average following diagnosis compared with traditional patients (P < 0.001). Patients with HDHPs who receive a diagnosis of CTS are more likely to undergo surgery, with a shorter time lag between diagnosis and surgery. The results from this study call attention to differences in surgical decision-making between patients enrolled in different insurance plans.

Relationship between Glucagon-like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and Cardiovascular Disease in Chronic Respiratory Disease and Diabetes.

The purpose of this paper is to assess the effect of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) on stroke or heart disease in patients having chronic respiratory disease and diabetes (CD) with underlying diseases related to COVID-19. From 1998 to 2019, we adjusted competing risk by assessing the effect of GLP-1RAs on stroke or heart disease in a CD cohort after propensity matching based on the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. We also used the time-dependent method to examine the results. GLP-1 RA and non-GLP-1 RA user groups included 15,801 patients (53% women and 46% men with a mean age of 52.6 ± 12.8 years). The time between the diagnoses of DM and the initial use of the GLP-1 RA among the stroke subcohort (<2000 days) was shorter than that of the heart disease subcohort (>2000 days) (all p-values < 0.05). The overall risks of stroke, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke were significantly lower in GLP-1 RA users than nonusers. The adjusted subhazard ratio (aSHR) was 0.76 [95% CI 0.65-0.90], 0.77 [95% CI 0.64-0.92], and 0.69 [95% CI 0.54-0.88] (p < 0.05 for all). Furthermore, a ≥351-day use had a significantly lower stroke risk than GLP-1 RA nonusers (aSHR 0.35 [95% CI 0.26-0.49]). The time-dependent method revealed the same result, such as lower stroke, and ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke risk. In contrast, the cardiac arrhythmia incidence was higher in GLP-1 RA users with an aSHR of 1.36 [95% CI 1.16-1.59]. However, this risk disappeared after the ≥351-day use with 1.21 (0.98, 1.68) aSHR. Longer GLP-1 RA use was associated with a decreased risk of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke and the risk of cardiac arrhythmia disappears in a CD cohort. Both a shorter lag time use of the GLP-1 RA and a longer time use of GLP-1 RA were associated with a decreased risk of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke in the CD cohort. The GLP-1 RA use in the early stage and optimal time use in the CD cohort may avoid the stroke risk.

Growth kinetics and patulin production by Penicillium setosum in pineapple juice under different temperatures and initial pH values

Penicillium setosum, a member of the Penicillium section Lanata-divaricata, is known for its ability to produce high levels of patulin. However, there is a notable lack of information regarding the influence of environmental factors on the growth and patulin production in fruit juice of this species. In this study, we investigated the impacts of temperature (25, 30, 35, or 40 °C), initial pH value (3, 5, or 7), and incubation time (2, 4, or 6 days) on the growth and patulin production in pineapple juice of the selected P. setosum strain HR9-5. The modified Gompertz model was applied to estimate the maximum growth rate and lag time prior to growth. This strain had the highest growth rate with the shortest lag time within the temperature range 30–35 °C, with an initial pH range of 3–5. Furthermore, it had the greatest biomass dry weight and patulin production at 35 °C with an initial pH of 3, and at 25 °C with an initial pH of 7, respectively. The growth rate and lag time prior to growth of P. setosum HR9-5 were significantly influenced by the initial pH, whereas the biomass dry weight was strongly affected by temperature and incubation time. Additionally, all factors and their interactions had a significant impact on patulin production. This study provided the first report on the effect of environmental factors on growth and patulin production by P. setosum in pineapple juice. These findings can contribute to formulating effective prevention strategies to control the growth of P. setosum and subsequent patulin production in pineapple and other fruit juices.