Short-term Wind Speed Prediction Model Research Articles

A short-term wind speed prediction method based on the IDBO-BPNN

Wind energy is known for its uncertainty and volatility, necessitating accurate wind speed prediction for stable wind farm operations. To enhance wind speed prediction accuracy, this study proposes a BP neural network (BPNN) short-term wind speed prediction model based on the Improved Dung Beetle Optimization (IDBO) algorithm. Addressing the issue of local optimization and reduced accuracy in the BPNN optimized by the Dung Beetle Optimization (DBO) algorithm, the circle chaotic mapping is utilized for population initialization to achieve a more uniform initial distribution. The improved sine-cosine algorithm, triangle wandering strategy, and adaptive weight coefficient are then employed to optimize dung beetle positions, balancing global exploration and local development capabilities and improving the algorithm’s search performance. Finally, the improved DBO algorithm optimizes the weights and thresholds of the BPNN, and the IDBO-BPNN prediction model was constructed. Simulation experiments were conducted based on wind speed data from a wind farm in Ohio, USA. The IDBO-BPNN model was compared with other prediction models, and error evaluation indexes were introduced to evaluate the experimental results. The findings demonstrate that the suggested model yields the most accurate predictions and achieves the optimal error evaluation indexes. MAE, MSE, RMSE, NSE and R2 of dataset 1 are 0.42247, 0.28775, 0.53642, 88.8785%, 89.161%, those of dataset 2 are 0.28283, 0.14952, 0.38668, 85.7383%, 86.577%, and those of dataset 3 are 0.45406, 0.39268, 0.62664, 84.3859%, 84.931%. In particular, compared with BPNN model, the five evaluation indexes of the IDBO-BPNN model promoted by 41.53%, 57.38%, 34.71%, 24.91%, and 11.44%, respectively in dataset 3. Therefore, that the proposed IDBO-BPNN model exhibits higher accuracy in short-term wind speed prediction, indicating its feasibility and superiority in the realm of wind energy.

Interpretable wind speed forecasting with meteorological feature exploring and two-stage decomposition

Wind speed plays a pivotal role in ensuring the stability of power grid operations. However, the inherent high volatility and non-stationarity of wind patterns pose significant challenges to achieving accurate predictions. To tackle this issue and enhance the interpretability of existing wind speed prediction models, this study proposes an innovative short-term wind speed prediction model that combines two-stage decomposition, meteorological data feature engineering, adaptive differential evolution with optional external archive (JADE) algorithm, and temporal fusion transformers (TFT). To begin, the wind speed data is subjected to decomposition using improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (IEEMD), yielding multiple eigenmode functions. Subsequently, the nonlinear decomposition subsequence undergoes further decomposition into multiple submodes via empirical wavelet transform (EWT), followed by the careful screening of nonlinear quadratic decomposition submodes. Additionally, meteorological features are ingeniously reconstructed into combined and statistical meteorological features, enhancing the effectiveness of input features. Next, the hyperparameters of the TFT are meticulously optimized using the powerful JADE algorithm. Empirical results unequivocally demonstrate that the IEEMD-EWT-JADE-TFT model achieves remarkably high prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, this interpretative experimental process and its results chart a novel path for decision-makers seeking reliable wind speed forecasting processes and outcomes.

A wind speed forcasting model based on rime optimization based VMD and multi-headed self-attention-LSTM

Due to the nonlinearity, fluctuation, and intermittency of wind speed, its accurate prediction is essential for improving efficiency in wind power operation systems. In this regard, a hybrid model that combines the rime optimization algorithm (RIME), variational mode decomposition (VMD), multi-headed self-attention (MSA) mechanism and long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed for wind speed prediction. First, the number of modes and VMD penalty parameter are optimized with RIME, the optimized parameters are brought into the VMD to decompose the raw wind speeds, and a Lagrange multiplier and quadratic penalty function are introduced to obtain the input series. Then, a LSTM short-term wind speed prediction model is constructed based on the MSA mechanism and solved for the hidden states and weights of each layer of attention in the model. Finally, a ReLU activation function is used to activate the hidden states of the LSTM model, and a weighted sum vector is used as the final sequence representation, which is inputted to the output layer for specific prediction to obtain the short-term wind speed prediction results. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, wind speed data from four wind farms in Ningxia, China, and two sets of wind speed data from an M2 tower in the USA are selected, and 19 models are built to compare the performance of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model outperforms other models on all datasets in terms of all five performance metrics, with smaller errors and higher prediction accuracy.

Forecasting model for short-term wind speed using robust local mean decomposition, deep neural networks, intelligent algorithm, and error correction

Wind power generation has aroused widespread concern worldwide. Accurate prediction of wind speed is very important for the safe and economic operation of the power grid. This paper presents a short-term wind speed prediction model which includes data decomposition, deep learning, intelligent algorithm optimization, and error correction modules. First, the robust local mean decomposition (RLMD) is applied to the original wind speed data to reduce the non-stationarity of the data. Then, the salp swarm algorithm (SSA) is used to determine the optimal parameter combination of the bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) to ensure prediction quality. In order to eliminate the predictable components of the error further, a correction module based on the improved salp swarm algorithm (ISSA) and deep extreme learning machine (DELM) is constructed. The exploration and exploitation capability of the original SSA is enhanced by introducing a crazy operator and dynamic learning strategy, and the input weights and thresholds in the DELM are optimized by the ISSA to improve the generalization ability of the model. The actual data of wind farms are used to verify the advancement of the proposed model. Compared with other models, the results show that the proposed model has the best prediction performance. As a powerful tool, the developed forecasting system is expected to be further used in the energy system.

Short-term wind speed forecasting based on two-stage preprocessing method, sparrow search algorithm and long short-term memory neural network

Wind energy, as an environment-friendly and renewable energy source, has become one of the most effective alternatives to conventional power sources. However, the intermittent nature of wind speed and the interference of noise signal bring several challenges to the safety and reliability of power grid operation. To tackle this issue, a two-stage preprocessing strategy is designed, and the short-term wind speed prediction model based on long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed. Firstly, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is introduced to extract the target data and filter the noise data. Next, the denoised sequence is decomposed by variational mode decomposition (VMD) into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are further aggregated by sample entropy (SE). Besides, the hyper-parameters of LSTM neural network are optimized by the newly sparrow search algorithm (SPSA) possessing excellent global optimization ability. Subsequently, the aggregated sequences are coupled with the SPSA-LSTM modules synchronously. The ultimate wind speed forecasting results are obtained by superimposing the predicted values of all sequences. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed approach, two case studies are conducted based on two datasets collected from different sites with 10-min and 1-hour intervals by comparing seven relevant models. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed SSA-VMD-SE-SPSA-LSTM can adequately extract the inherent features of wind speed series, thus achieving higher prediction accuracy.

An efficient short-term wind speed prediction model based on cross-channel data integration and attention mechanisms

With the growing focus on renewable energy, wind power is increasingly valued and advocated. In order to guarantee the stability of wind power system dispatch and management, reliable prediction of future wind speeds is essential. In this study, a short-term wind speed prediction model based on cross-channel data convolution, intelligent signal extension and attention mechanisms is proposed to enhance the prediction efficiency. The model first classifies the wind speed signal into IMFs (intrinsic mode functions) and residual data with the EMD (empirical mode decomposition) method, and then divides IMFs into rough prediction part and accurate prediction part according to the signal characteristics. CNN (convolutional neural network) modules are adopted for the rough prediction part to ensure a speedy process, whereas a CNN-AM (attentional mechanism)-LSTM (long short-term memory)-ECA (efficient channel attention) hybrid network is developed to for the accurate prediction part. Through the time-history prediction on measured 10 min average wind speed data, the results show that: (a) The channel-crossing one-dimensional (1D) convolution, intelligent signal extension, and attention mechanisms applied in the proposed model can effectively improve the accuracy of predictions; (b) The proposed prediction model is superior to the compared baseline models in precision and efficiency; and (c) The proposed model features strong migration learning ability for fast application on new datasets.

Short-term wind speed prediction based on feature extraction with Multi-task Lasso and Multilayer Perceptron

The vigorous development of wind energy will help to promoting the adjustment of energy structure, the control of atmospheric smog, and the transformation of economic development mode. However, the randomness and volatility of wind speed make it difficult to predict with high accuracy. High-precision short-term wind speed prediction is inseparable from effective variable selection. In order to select highly relevant variables for short-term wind speed prediction, Multi-Task Lasso is applied to extract features, so the change trend of wind speed can be expressed exactly, and the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) is applied to predict based on the extracted features. Firstly, Multi-Task Lasso is used to establish a linear regression model, the leading periods and the original input variables are determined from the perspective of prediction accuracy; Secondly, according to the optimization results of Multi-Task Lasso, the optimal features that can best express the wind speed fluctuation is extracted from different influencing factors and different leading periods based on the weight; Finally, the extracted optimal feature set is used as the input variable of MLP to establish prediction model. The results show that the effect of feature selection is obvious, the prediction accuracy is improved by more than 17%, and the short-term wind speed prediction model has good prediction accuracy and good generalization ability.

Predicting short wind speed with a hybrid model based on a piecewise error correction method and Elman neural network

The effective utilization of wind energy is a positive development trend in renewable energy that provides an effective impetus to alleviate global warming. However, the complex volatility and extreme suddenness of wind speeds make it difficult to accurately predict wind speeds. To overcome this challenge, a novel short-term wind speed prediction model based on double decomposition, piecewise error correction, Elman neural network and the autoregressive integrated moving average model is proposed. In this model, the fuzzy entropy is applied to judge the complexity of each subseries generated by variational mode decomposition. To address error correction, a piecewise error correction method that needs to extract only a part of the error sequence as a training set is proposed. Three experiments utilizing 6 Datasets and 14 compared models are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results show that (i) the hybrid strategy based on double decomposition and piecewise error correction can improve the final prediction accuracy of different single models; (ii) the proposed hybrid model can effectively handle both linear and nonlinear problems; (iii) the root mean squared error of the proposed model for Dataset1-6 in seven-step forecasting are 0.1243, 0.1444, 0.0233, 0.1015, 0.1846 and 0.2513, respectively.

A multi-location short-term wind speed prediction model based on spatiotemporal joint learning

Using temporal and spatial correlations to predict wind speed is still one of the most challenging and least-researched fields in wind speed prediction. How to make full use of the spatial correlation of wind speed between adjacent wind turbines to improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction is significant. Therefore, to address the challenges of making multi-location, short-term wind speed predictions, we propose a multi-location wind speed prediction model based on spatiotemporal joint learning, which called Mixed-SqueezeNet-BiGRU. By designing the SqueezeNet model with a deformable convolutional network, the spatial correlation of a multi-location time series is learned by using the spatial wind speed matrix; by introducing the Channel Shuffle operation of ShuffleNet, the characteristics of multi-location and multi-channel are output to ensure the orderly flow of information among the channels. To describe the dynamic information of the time series, a time series dynamic network model based on the bi-directional gating cycle unit, BiGRU, is introduced to model the long-term and nonlinear dependence of the time series. Experiments were carried out on three wind farm's wind speed dataset to verify that the Mixed-SqueezeNet-BiGRU short-term wind speed prediction model has a better prediction performance than some advanced methods.

Machine Learning-Based Predictive the Forecasting of Short Term Wind Speed

As a possible emerging technology for electricity generation, wind power is rapidly evolving world’s mainstream influence. However, the inherent spontaneous wind instability poses great obstacles to stable grid usage and power supply stability. One way of efficiently addressing the wind instability problem is to enhance accurate wind velocity forecasts. However, the intrinsic regularity of wind speed data cannot be for the bulk of the wind speed estimation method. Therefore, this paper introduces machine learning (ML) based genetic algorithm (GA) and the Short-term Wind Speed Prediction Model, which can effectively improve wind speed prediction accuracy. The work of study will help evaluate the power grid risks adequately. The appropriate electricity system divisions are expected to create a realistic generation schedule, minimize cost effectively, and significantly encourage green-energy growth.

Short-term wind speed prediction based on CEEMDAN-SE-improved PIO-GRNN model

In this paper, a short-term wind speed prediction model, called CEEMDAN-SE-Improved PIO-GRNN, is proposed to optimize the accuracy of the short-term wind speed forecast. This model is established on account of the optimized General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) method optimized by three algorithms, which are Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), Sample Entropy (SE), and Pigeon Inspired Optimization (PIO), separately. Firstly, decomposing the original wind speed sequences into several subsequences with different complexity by CEEMDAN. Then, the complexity of each subsequence is judged by SE and the similar subsequences are combined into a new sequence to reduce the scale of calculation. Afterwards, the GRNN model optimized by improved PIO is used to predict each new sequence. Finally, the predicted results are superposed as the eventual predicted value. Implementing the prediction for the wind speed data of a wind field in north China within 30 days by applying the different prediction models, namely, GRNN, CEEMDAN-GRNN, Improved PIO-GRNN, and CEEMDAN-SE-Improved PIO-GRNN which are proposed in this paper. Comparing the prediction curves of different models with the fitting curve of the actual wind speed shows that the optimal fitting effect and minimum error value are included in CEEMDAN-SE-Improved PIO-GRNN model. Specifically, the values of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and weighted mean absolute percentage error (WMAPE) separately decrease by 0.6222, 0.3334, and 8.5766%, which compare with the single prediction model GRNN. Meanwhile, diebold-mariano (DM) test shows that the prediction ability of the two models is significantly different. The above statements indicate the proposed model does great advance in the precision of short-term wind speed prediction.

Short-term wind speed prediction model based on GA-ANN improved by VMD

Wind power, as a potential new energy generation technology, is gradually developing towards to the mainstream energy in the world. However, the inherent random volatility of wind brings severe challenges to the safe operation of the grid and the reliability of power supply, one of the effective ways to solve the problem is to improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction. However, most of wind speed prediction model cannot well mine the inherent regularity of wind speed data. Therefore, this paper introduces variational mode decomposition (VMD) algorithm. And the Short-term Wind Speed Prediction Model based on GA-ANN improved by VMD is proposed, which can effectively improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction. Firstly, hierarchical cluster method in this paper is employed to extract the historical data with high similarity to the predicted day. And then the appropriate number of decompositions K is selected by judging the value of sample entropy, so that the extracted historical data is decomposed into K subsequences by the variational mode decomposition. Next, with the global optimization ability of genetic algorithm, the artificial neural network is optimized to improve the forecasting performance. Finally, the short-term wind speed forecasting model based on GA-ANN improved by VMD is employed to predict the wind speed of each subsequence and superimposed them to obtain the final wind speed prediction sequence. The results in this paper show that (1) the model can find the periodic fluctuation of wind speed through historical data by hierarchical cluster method, so that significantly improving the accuracy of short-term wind speed prediction; (2) for the wind speed prediction, the error value of GA-ANN model is smaller than that of BP neural network; (3) in view of the inherent nature of the wind, the model proposed in this paper can use VMD to decompose the wind speed signal to obtain different scale fluctuations or trends, so as to fully exploit the potential information of wind speed, and obtain more accurate prediction results. The research work can help the relevant departments of the power system to accurately assess the risk of power grid operation, make a reasonable generation plan, effectively reduce the cost of power operation, and then greatly promote the development of green energy.

Application of hybrid model based on double decomposition, error correction and deep learning in short-term wind speed prediction

As wind power accounts for an increasing proportion of the electricity market, the wind speed prediction plays a vital role in the stable operation of the power grid. However, owing to the stochastic nature of wind speed, predicting wind speeds accurately is difficult. Aims at this challenge, a new short-term wind speed prediction model based on double decomposition, error correction strategy and deep learning algorithm is proposed. The complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise and variational mode decomposition are applied to decompose the original wind speed series and error series, respectively. The deep learning algorithm based on long short term memory neural network, is utilized to detect the long-term and short-term memory characteristics and build the suitable prediction model for each sub-series. In the four real forecasting cases, nine models were built to compare the performance of the proposed model. The experimental results show that the proposed model performs better than all other considered models without double decomposition, and the variational mode decomposition for error series can improve the effect of error correction strategy.

Short-term wind speed prediction based on EEMD-LSTM

Accurate wind speed prediction is of great significance for the smooth output of wind farms. To this end, this paper proposes a short-term wind speed prediction model based on the combination of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and long-term and short-term memory model (LSTM). Firstly, in order to reduce the nonlinearity and volatility of wind speed, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition technique is used to decompose the original wind speed time series into a plurality of different sub-sequences; then LSTM is used to predict each sub-sequence to obtain multiple prediction results. Finally, the prediction results of each LSTM model are superimposed to obtain the final wind speed prediction result of the combined model. The prediction model is verified by historical wind speed data of a wind farm in Hebei Province, and compared with ARIMA, GRNN and LSTM models. The simulation results show that the combined wind speed prediction model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition and long-term and short-term memory model proposed in this paper has a higher prediction accuracy.

An application of backtracking search optimization–based least squares support vector machine for prediction of short-term wind speed

Wind speed prediction is an important technology in the wind power field; however, because of their chaotic nature, predicting wind speed accurately is difficult. Aims at this challenge, a backtracking search optimization–based least squares support vector machine model is proposed for short-term wind speed prediction. In this article, the least squares support vector machine is chosen as the short-term wind speed prediction model and backtracking search optimization algorithm is used to optimize the important parameters which influence the least squares support vector machine regression model. Furthermore, the optimal parameters of the model are obtained, and the short-term wind speed prediction model of least squares support vector machine is established through parameter optimization. For time-varying systems similar to short-term wind speed time series, a model updating method based on prediction error accuracy combined with sliding window strategy is proposed. When the prediction model does not match the actual short-term wind model, least squares support vector machine trains and re-establishes. This model updating method avoids the mismatch problem between prediction model and actual wind speed data. The actual collected short-term wind speed time series is used as the research object. Multi-step prediction simulation of short-term wind speed is carried out. The simulation results show that backtracking search optimization algorithm–based least squares support vector machine model has higher prediction accuracy and reliability for the short-term wind speed. At the same time, the prediction performance indicators are also improved. The prediction result is that root mean square error is 0.1248, mean absolute error is 0.1374, mean absolute percentile error is 0.1589% and R2 is 0.9648. When the short-term wind speed varies from 0 to 4 m/s, the average value of absolute prediction error is 0.1113 m/s, and average value of absolute relative prediction error is 8.7111%. The proposed prediction model in this article has high engineering application value.

Short-term wind speed prediction based on improved PSO algorithm optimized EM-ELM

ABSTRACTShort-term wind speed prediction is of importance for power grids. It can mitigate the disadvantageous impacts of wind farms on power systems and enhance the competitiveness of wind power in electricity markets. A short-term wind speed prediction model is proposed. Many useless neurons of incremental extreme learning machine have little influences on the final output, at the same time, reduce the efficiency of the algorithm. In order to solve this problem, based on error minimized extreme learning machine, an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed to decrease the number of useless neurons, achieve the goal of reducing the network complexity and improving the efficiency of the algorithm. The stability and convergence of the algorithm are proved. The actual short-term wind speed time series is used as the research object. Multistep prediction simulation of short-term wind speed is performed out. Compared with the other prediction models, the simulation results show that the prediction model proposed in this paper reduces the training time of the model and decreases the number of hidden layer nodes. The prediction model has higher prediction accuracy and reliability, meanwhile improve the prediction performance indicators.

Artificial bee colony algorithm–optimized error minimized extreme learning machine and its application in short-term wind speed prediction

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-term wind speed, a short-term wind speed prediction model based on artificial bee colony algorithm optimized error minimized extreme learning machine model is proposed. The extreme learning machine has the advantages of fast learning speed and strong generalization ability. But many useless neurons of incremental extreme learning machine have little influences on the final output and, at the same time, reduce the efficiency of the algorithm. The optimal parameters of the hidden layer nodes will make network output error of incremental extreme learning machine decrease with fast speed. Based on the error minimized extreme learning machine, artificial bee colony algorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of the hidden layer nodes, decrease the number of useless neurons, reduce training and prediction error, achieve the goal of reducing the network complexity, and improve the efficiency of the algorithm. The error minimized extreme learning machine prediction model is constructed with the obtained optimal parameters. The stability and convergence property of artificial bee colony algorithm optimized error minimized extreme learning machine model are proved. The practical short-term wind speed time series is used as the research object and to verify the validity of the prediction model. Multi-step prediction simulation of short-term wind speed is carried out. Compared with other prediction models, simulation results show that the prediction model proposed in this article reduces the training time of the prediction model and decreases the number of hidden layer nodes. The prediction model has higher prediction accuracy and reliability performance, meanwhile improves the performance indicators.