Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Research Articles

Very short-term wind power forecasting considering static data: An improved transformer model

The randomness and fluctuations in wind power generation present significant challenges for grid and wind farm dispatching. Accurate very short-term wind power forecasting (WPF) is therefore essential for the efficient operation of modern power systems. Data-driven models, such as Transformers, have demonstrated their effectiveness in WPF due to their ability to efficiently capture global features in long sequences. However, limited research has examined the impact of incorporating static data into WPF, which may limit forecasting accuracy. This paper proposes a Temporal Fusion Transformer forecasting model to address this challenge. This approach employs static data as the input features for the model. The model includes feature selection through a variable selection network and employs a specialized temporal fusion decoder to learn effectively from these static features. The case results show that the results of the proposed model are more accurate than the state-of-the-art methods, reducing MAPE by at least 1.32%, RMSE by 0.0091, and improving R2 by 0.035 in case studies. Additionally, the model maintains a manageable computational burden, underscoring its practical applicability.

Short-term wind power prediction method based on multivariate signal decomposition and RIME optimization algorithm

Accurate characterization of the dynamics of wind power systems under highly unstable conditions is essential for short-term wind power forecasting. Multivariate factors, such as wind speed, wind direction and climatic factors at different heights, as well as the relationships between them, need to be fully considered. To this end, after the Pearson correlation coefficient is used to identify the main influencing variables, the empirical modal decomposition (MEMD) method is utilized to decompose the data in order to capture the deep coupling relationship and the spatio-temporal pattern of change among the variables. Combined with a bidirectional long and short-term memory network (BiLSTM) optimized through the RIME algorithm, a short-term wind power prediction model was constructed. Data analysis of two wind farms in Xinjiang and Gansu, China, shows that the model has higher prediction accuracy compared to the baseline model. The effectiveness of RIME and MEMD is verified through component ablation experiments and comparison experiments with other optimization algorithms and signal decomposition algorithms. To cope with large-scale data, dimensionality reduction of IMF features using Elastic Net (EN) is explored to reduce computational requirements and maintain good prediction performance. The method provides strong support for power system scheduling and efficient utilization of renewable energy.

Short-term wind power forecasting method based on spatial-temporal graph neural network

Abstract In order to solve the problem that the weather factor is neglected in the current short-term wind power forecasting process, which leads to a big difference between the power forecasting result and the actual power, a short-term wind power forecasting method based on the spatial-temporal graph neural network is proposed. According to the operating power data, the short-term wind power forecasting sequence is calculated, and the wind farm is regarded as a graph. The dependence of space and time series is captured by a graph neural network, and the spatial-temporal graph neural network model is constructed. Combined with the wavelet decomposition process, short-term wind power forecasting is realized. The experimental results show that the average absolute error and average relative error of this method are less than 10%, and the wind power prediction results at different times are all on the actual wind power curve, which shows that this method can accurately predict short-term wind power.

Short-term wind power prediction based on improved variational modal decomposition, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and BiGRU networks

Wind energy is a clean resource widely utilized as a renewable energy source. However, due to its inherent strong volatility and the multitude of influencing factors, it is challenging to accurately predict wind power. To address these issues, an IVMD-LASSO-BiGRU model, comprising Improved Variational Mode Decomposition (IVMD), Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), and Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU), is proposed for forecasting. Firstly, based on the sparse prior knowledge of each component constructed in the variational model by VMD, the optimal decomposition mode number K is determined at the inflexion point where the sparsity index shifts from rising to falling. The original wind power sequence is then decomposed into a series of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) using VMD with the optimal K value, thereby reducing the volatility of the original sequence. Secondly, LASSO is employed to select key features from meteorological data, historical wind power, and IMFs, thereby reducing the data dimension. Subsequently, BiGRU is utilized to fully extract the temporal features of the input data, establishing the mapping between input and output. Experimental results demonstrate that on three different datasets, the R2 values of the proposed forecasting method reach 0.9872, 0.9917, and 0.9941, respectively. Compared to the traditional BiGRU model, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are reduced by an average of 57.56% and 58.88%, respectively. Thus, it is evident that the proposed method enhances the accuracy of short-term wind power forecasting, providing a basis for adjusting power generation plans.

Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Based on Error Traceability and Numerical Weather Prediction Wind Speed Correction

Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Based on Error Traceability and Numerical Weather Prediction Wind Speed Correction

Short-term Wind Power Forecasts based on VMD-KPCA and CFSBOA-BiLSTM

Accurate prediction of wind power is of great significance to reduce the impact of large-scale wind power connection and improve the security and stability of power grid. A short-term wind power forecasting method based on VMD-KPCA and CFSBOA-BiLSTM is proposed. Firstly, the key environmental factors restricting the volatility of wind power are fully considered, and the variational mode decomposition method is used to decompose the wind power and meteorological factors. Secondly, the kernel principal component analysis method is used to reduce the dimension and construct the sub-sequence characteristic data set. Finally, the multi-strategy improved butterfly algorithm is used to optimize the BiLSTM network hyperparameters and establish the CFSBOA-BiLSTM prediction model. The simulation analysis uses the measured data of a wind farm in northwest China. The experimental results show that the combined forecasting model can fully mine the hidden information of the data and improve the accuracy of short-term wind power forecasting. Compared with the BiLSTM model, RMSE, MAE and MAPE decreased by 60.37%, 66.6% and 67.59%, respectively.

A novel Bagged-CNN architecture for short-term wind power forecasting

ABSTRACT Wind power forecasting plays a pivotal role in ensuring the dependable integration of wind energy into power grids. This research introduces a novel Bagged-CNN architecture tailored for short-term wind power forecasting. This architecture harnesses the combined strengths of the Bagging ensemble technique and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) to enhance prediction accuracy and robustness. Our approach demonstrates superior forecasting capabilities by exploiting the spatial and temporal features captured by CNNs. To validate our proposed architecture, we have conducted a comprehensive evaluation across three distinct wind farms, each characterized by unique geographical and climatic conditions. We systematically compared the performance of our Bagged-CNN model against several standalone machine-learning algorithms commonly employed in wind power forecasting. The hyperparameters of our Bagged-CNN model are meticulously optimized using the GRID search algorithm, which systematically explores a predefined parameter space. Notably, our predictions shed light on the substantial impact of training data period length on wind power prediction accuracy. Our research underscores the potential of coupling Bagging and CNN techniques for short-term wind power forecasting. The Bagged-CNN architecture, as proposed, serves as a robust framework for capturing intricate spatial and temporal patterns in wind power data, thereby facilitating more precise and dependable predictions.

Wavelet decomposition and neural networks: a potent combination for short term wind speed and power forecasting

The forecast of wind speed and the power produced from wind farms has been a challenge for a long time and continues to be so. This work introduces a method that we label as Wavelet Decomposition-Neural Networks (WDNN) that combines wavelet decomposition principles and deep learning. By merging the strengths of signal processing and machine learning, this approach aims to address the aforementioned challenge. Treating wind speed and power as signals, the wavelet decomposition part of the model transforms these inputs, as appropriate, into a set of features that the neural network part of the model can ingest to output accurate forecasts. WDNN is unconstrained by the shape, layout, or number of turbines in a wind farm. We test our WDNN methods using three large datasets, with multiple years of data and hundreds of turbines, and compare it against other state-of-the-art methods. It’s very short-term forecast, like 1-h ahead, can outperform some deep learning models by as much as 30%. This shows that wavelet decomposition and neural network are a potent combination for advancing the quality of short-term wind forecasting.

Adaptive temporal transformer method for short-term wind power forecasting considering shift in time series distribution

In wind power prediction, the input probability distributions in the different sub-periods are shifted owing to the strong randomness of the input features, such as wind speed and direction. This may violate the assumption for machine learning that the training and test data meet the condition of being independent and identically distributed, resulting in an insufficient generalization ability of the prediction model that is trained with the training data and applied to unknown test data. To address this problem, this study proposes an adaptive temporal transformer method for short-term wind power forecasting. First, a temporal transformer model with a gate recurrent unit and multi-head attention layers was used to extract the short- and long-term temporal information of the multiple input variables. Then, an adaptive learning strategy consisting of two stages—temporal distribution characterization and temporal distribution matching—was developed to explore the common knowledge hidden in each sub-period. The case results for an actual wind farm in northwest China showed that the proposed method could effectively weaken the adverse effects of the shifts in time series distribution on forecasting and improve the accuracy and generalization of short-term wind power prediction.

Short-term wind power forecasting based on dual attention mechanism and gated recurrent unit neural network

Accurate wind power forecasting is essential for both optimal grid scheduling and the massive absorption of wind power into the grid. However, the continuous changes in the contribution of various meteorological features to the forecasting of wind power output under different time or weather conditions, and the overlapping of wind power sequence cycles, make forecasting challenging. To address these problems, a short-term wind power forecasting model is established that integrates a gated recurrent unit (GRU) network with a dual attention mechanism (DAM). To compute the contributions of different features in real time, historical wind power data and meteorological information are first extracted using a feature attention mechanism (FAM). The feature sequences collected by the FAM are then used by the GRU network for preliminary forecasting. Subsequently, one-dimensional convolution employing several distinct convolution kernels is used to filter the GRU outputs. In addition, a multi-head time attention mechanism (MHTAM) is proposed and a Gaussian bias is introduced to assign different weights to different time steps of each modality. The final forecast results are produced by combining the outputs of the MHTAM. The results of the simulation experiment show that for 5-h, 10-h, and 20-h short-term wind power forecasting, the established DAM-GRU model performs better than comparative models on the basis of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R-squared (R2), Square sum error (SSE), Mean absolute percentile error (MAPE), and Relative root mean square error (RRMSE) index.

Wind Power Short-Term Time-Series Prediction Using an Ensemble of Neural Networks

Short-term wind power forecasting has difficult problems due to the very large variety of speeds of the wind, which is a key factor in producing energy. From the point of view of the whole country, an important problem is predicting the total impact of wind power’s contribution to the country’s energy demands for succeeding days. Accordingly, efficient planning of classical power sources may be made for the next day. This paper will investigate this direction of research. Based on historical data, a few neural network predictors will be combined into an ensemble that is responsible for the next day’s wind power generation. The problem is difficult since wind farms are distributed in large regions of the country, where different wind conditions exist. Moreover, the information on wind speed is not available. This paper proposes and compares different structures of an ensemble combined from three neural networks. The best accuracy has been obtained with the application of an MLP combiner. The results of numerical experiments have shown a significant reduction in prediction errors compared to the naïve approach. The improvement in results with this naïve solution is close to two in the one-day-ahead prediction task.

Least Squares-based Optimal Reconciliation Method for Hierarchical Forecasts of Wind Power Generation

Wind power generation is hierarchically organized and can be aggregated/disaggregated based on geography and electrical network structure. Forecasts are required at all levels of such a hierarchy for different operational requirements, which are also known as “hierarchical forecasts”. In this paper, we propose a new method to produce hierarchical wind power forecasts which performs better than the conventional top-down or bottom-up method. At first, wind power generation at all levels of the hierarchy is independently forecasted using state-of-the-art techniques. Then, a least squares regression model is used to optimally reconcile these base forecasts. Adjusted forecasts are as close as possible to base forecasts but also satisfy the requirement of the aggregate consistency (i.e., the lower-level forecasts add up exactly to the higher-level forecasts). Case studies validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for very short-term wind power forecasts. The accuracy improvement of reconciled forecasts over benchmarks is confirmed at all levels of the hierarchy, regardless of forecast horizons and hierarchical structures.

Short-Term Wind Power Forecast Based on Continuous Conditional Random Field

Short-Term Wind Power Forecast Based on Continuous Conditional Random Field

A Principle-Constrained Wind Field Image Generation Framework for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

A Principle-Constrained Wind Field Image Generation Framework for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

Relative evaluation of probabilistic methods for spatio-temporal wind forecasting

Short-term wind power forecasting has become a de facto tool to better facilitate the integration of such renewable energy resources into modern power grids. Instead of point predictors, which produce single-value predictions for the expected power, probabilistic forecasts predict probability distributions over the expected power output or associated confidence intervals. In this study, three different parametric and non-parametric methods for uncertainty modelling in wind power forecasting were studied, namely quantile regression (QR), variational inference and a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method. Johnson’s SU distribution was studied as a novel candidate for modelling wind power, which is a transformed normal distribution that exhibits both skew and heavy tails. This was one of the first studies to provide a thorough investigation of Johnson’s SU distribution for uncertainty modelling in a complex deep learning framework for wind forecasting. It was found that Johsnon’s SU likelihood and QR-based models significantly outperformed models using Gaussian likelihoods, based on a range of quantitative metrics to evaluate probability distributions and qualitative investigation of produced forecasts. Variational inference models using Johnson’s SU likelihoods performed remarkably well, with near-perfect calibration and higher precision than models using any of the other methods for uncertainty modelling, as evaluated through the pinball loss, Average Coverage Error (ACE) and Prediction Interval Coverage Percentage (PICP) metric. With the superior performance of Johnson’s SU likelihood models, the study mainly contributes to the literature by introducing another candidate distribution for probabilistic wind forecasting, which is analytical, unbounded and easy to integrate into modern deep learning frameworks.

Short-term wind power forecasting based on multivariate/multi-step LSTM with temporal feature attention mechanism

Precision enhancement for short-term wind power forecasting can alleviate negative impact of the forecasting results on wind power generation. Due to complexities and nonlinearities among factors and facets in wind power, it is essential to achieve reliable and stable power generation via the long short-term memory (LSTM) forecasting. To this purpose, multi-task temporal feature attention (MTTFA) based LSTM, namely MTTFA-LSTM, is proposed for multivariate/multi-step wind power forecasting with historical power and meteorological data, in which task-sharing and task-specifying layers are designed for task co-features extracting and task specifics discriminating, respectively. More specifically, in the task-sharing layer, multi-dimensional inputs are fed into LSTM to extract long-term trends, while in the task-specifying layer, one-dimensional convolution operations extract temporal features hidden in each and all time steps. Furthermore, an attention mechanism is adopted to adaptively tune weights for temporal features. Finally, the proposed model is leveraged to cope with different short-term wind power forecasting (SWPF) problems based on the national renewable energy laboratory’s (NREL) wind power data. Simulation results show that the proposed MTTFA-LSTM achieves persistent excellent forecasting accuracy, comparing its backbone STL model, TFA-LSTM as well as the benchmark MTL models in the same setting, which indicate that the complex and non-linear interdependencies among multi-dimensional data can be well depicted by the proposed model.

Multistep short-term wind power forecasting model based on secondary decomposition, the kernel principal component analysis, an enhanced arithmetic optimization algorithm, and error correction

Wind power forecasting can effectively improve the energy utilization efficiency of a power system and ensure its stable operation. In this study, a novel hybrid multistep prediction model, including the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), variational mode decomposition (VMD), the kernel principal component analysis (KPCA), an enhanced arithmetic optimization algorithm (ENAOA), a bidirectional long short-term memory (BILSTM) neural network, and error correction, was designed for short-term wind power forecasting. First, the collected original wind power data were decomposed into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) through a secondary decomposition composed of the CEEMDAN and VMD, which eliminated the interactions between different components to achieve denoising. Second, the KPCA was adopted to reduce the dimensionality of the multiple IMFs by extracting the principal components, effectively reducing the complexity of the multidimensional IMF data and improving the forecasting efficiency of the proposed prediction model. Subsequently, an ENAOA was proposed based on the Sobol sequence, adaptive T-distribution, and random walk strategy to optimize the BILSTM parameters. Finally, multiple preprocessed components were predicted by the optimized BILSTM, after which error correction was performed to obtain the final prediction results, which could further reduce the forecast error of the designed prediction model. Based on two sets of data collected from a wind farm in northwest China, the simulation results of 1-step, 4-step, 7-step, and 10-step forecasting revealed that compared with other incomplete models, the various algorithms adopted in the hybrid forecasting model reduced the prediction errors to different degrees, significantly enhanced the wind power prediction performance, and validated the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.

Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting for Smart City Power Grid With a Hybrid Machine Learning Framework

To address foreseeable challenges during the penetration of wind energy into the power grid, including accurate wind power forecasting and smart power generation scheduling, this study proposes a novel short-term wind speed forecasting model, named EMD-KM-SXL, which is based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD), K-means clustering and machine learning, and a new two-stage short-term wind power forecasting model based on wind speed forecasting and wind power curve modeling. The former wind speed forecasting model regards historical wind speed observations as model inputs, and the latter power forecasting model utilizes knowledge augmentation, introducing wind power conversion relationship, environmental factors as well as wind power system status parameters. In the proposed wind speed forecasting model, three machine learning models, including support vector regressor, XGBoost regressor, and Lasso regressor, are employed to forecast three types of frequency components that are generated via EMD and K-means clustering. Then, the wind power curve model is utilized to compute potential outpower based on the predicted wind speed, which is regarded as the first stage of the proposed wind power forecasting model. In the second stage, environmental factors and wind power system status parameters are introduced and an artificial neural network model, considering preliminary predicted power, environmental factors, and wind power system status parameters as model inputs, is built to make final power prediction. Computational results show that proposed models achieve the best performance in terms of wind speed and power forecasting over different forecasting horizons ranging from 10 to 40 minutes, compared with benchmarking methods.

A Multichannel-Based CNN and GRU Method for Short-Term Wind Power Prediction

Incorporating wind energy on a large scale into power systems presents challenges for the operation and control of the grid. To enhance the safety of power grid operation, accurate short-term forecasting of wind power is necessary, as it minimizes the impact of randomness. Considering the uncertainty and prediction issues associated with wind power, this paper introduces a CNN–GRU ultra-short-term wind power prediction model. This model relies on multichannel signals, including data such as wind speed, wind direction, climate conditions, and historical power outputs collected from wind farms. These data types contribute to the formation of a comprehensive multichannel signal for wind power. Following that, the CNN method extracts both global and partial features from these signals. Concurrently, features are extracted from past power outputs based on their time series. These features are then combined with the ones obtained from the convolution process. Subsequently, these combined features are input into a fully connected network. This step is crucial for blending multichannel information and generating forecast results. To validate the model, it was tested using data from a wind farm located in a specific region of Sichuan Province. According to our experimental results, the model demonstrates a high level of accuracy in computation and robust generalization ability.

A hybrid model based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and bidirectional recurrent neural networks for wind speed prediction

Wind speed is the main driver of wind power output, but its inherent fluctuations and deviations present significant challenges for power system security and power quality. Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is necessary to ensure the stability and seamless integration of wind energy into the grid, thereby bolstering grid reliability, optimizing power flow management, and minimizing disruptions, ultimately contributing to a more sustainable and efficient energy ecosystem. Non-stationarity is a major challenge in analyzing wind speed data, and change-point detection is essential for optimal resource allocation. This paper addresses the issue of short-term wind power forecasting for stable and effective wind energy system operation. To predict non-stationary data and detect change points, non-stationary data must first be transformed into stationary data. Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is used to decompose wind speed traces into low- and high-frequency components for more accurate predictions using deep learning algorithms. The proposed approach utilizes a combination of DWT and recurrent neural network (RNN) models, including Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) and Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU), complementing each other to efficiently predict short-term and long-term dependencies in wind speed data and achieve the most accurate prediction results. Experimental results substantiate the consistent superiority of the proposed approach over the baseline method, showcasing a significant enhancement in prediction accuracy, with improvements spanning from 11.36% to 16.63% for MAPE, 16.67%–26.47% for RMSE, and 21.74%–30.77% for MAE.