Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Research Articles

Hybrid short-term traffic flow prediction based on the effect of non-linear sequence noise

<abstract> <p>Short-term traffic flow prediction is crucial for intelligent transport systems and mitigating traffic congestion. Therefore, precise prediction of real-time traffic conditions is becoming more important. Currently, the existing prediction models lack the ability to effectively extract spatio-temporal characteristics and fail to adequately account for the impact of non-linear noise. To address these issues, the study proposes a hybrid short-term traffic flow prediction model based on spatio-temporal characteristics. First, the method decomposes the initial spatio-temporal traffic sequence data into multiple modal components using the complementary ensemble empirical modal decomposition method. Then, spatio-temporal characteristics are extracted from the decomposed spatio-temporal components using a deep residual network. The predicted values of each factor are combined to obtain the final predicted values. To validate the model, traffic flow data that is collected at point 4909A on the M25 motorway in London is used. The results indicate that the proposed model outperforms other models in terms of accuracy metrics such as root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, mean squared error, and coefficient of determination. Therefore, the model has high accuracy and practicality and exhibits great potential for short-term traffic flow prediction.</p> </abstract>

Construction of Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on IoT and Deep Learning Algorithms

Construction of Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on IoT and Deep Learning Algorithms

Retracted: A Multiscale and High-Precision LSTM-GASVR Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model

Retracted: A Multiscale and High-Precision LSTM-GASVR Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model

An efficient and intelligent traffic flow prediction method based on LSTM and variational modal decomposition

Traffic flow prediction is a very important research field in intelligent transportation system. The traditional prediction methods have a very wide application in traffic flow prediction. However, in the short-term traffic flow prediction, due to the complexity of its influencing factors, the traditional prediction methods cannot predict the short-term traffic flow well. In this paper, the short-term traffic flow prediction model is constructed by using the short-term and short-term memory network, and the modal aliasing problem is solved by using the variational modal decomposition. From the experimental results, the method proposed in this paper is very suitable for short-term traffic flow prediction, and can achieve good prediction effect and accuracy.

Short-term traffic flow prediction model based on a shared weight gate recurrent unit neural network

Accurate traffic flow prediction is critical for enhancing traffic network operational efficiency. With the continuous expansion of traffic networks, providing reliable and efficient multi-step traffic flow prediction for large-scale traffic networks with a large number of sensors deployed has become a challenging issue. In this paper, we propose a multi-step many-to-many traffic prediction model for large-scale traffic networks, called spatio-temporal Shared GRU (STSGRU), which receive inputs from multiple sensors and provides predictions for all sensors simultaneously. First, we model the weekly pattern of traffic flow, using periodicity to explore long-term temporal features and provide smooth traffic flow to reduce the impact of data volatility. Second, different from existing models, we propose a shared weight mechanism to achieve many-to-many prediction without mapping traffic networks to images or graph structures. The proposed model strikes a delicate balance between complexity and accuracy. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed method on the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS) dataset. The results show that our model achieves similar prediction performance with advanced graph neural networks and has higher flexibility.

Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Graph Convolutional Networks and Federated Learning

This study proposes a short-term traffic flow prediction model that combines community detection-based federated learning with a graph convolutional network (GCN) to alleviate the time-consuming training, higher communication costs, and data privacy risks of global GCNs as the amount of data increases. The federated community GCN (FCGCN) can achieve timely, accurate, and safe traffic state predictions in the era of big traffic data, which is critical for the efficient operation of intelligent transportation systems. The FCGCN prediction process has four steps: dividing the local subnetwork with community detection, local training based on the global parameters, uploading the local model parameters, and constructing a global model prediction based on the aggregated parameters. Numerical results on the PeMS04 and PeMS08 datasets show that the FCGCN outperforms four benchmark models, namely, the long short-term memory (LSTM), convolutional neural network (CNN), ChebNet, and graph attention network (GAT) models. The FCGCN prediction is closer to the real value, with nearly the same performance as the global model at a lower time cost, thus achieving accurate and secure short-term traffic flow predictions with three parameters: flow, speed, and occupancy.

Research on Short-Term Traffic Flow Combination Prediction Based on CEEMDAN and Machine Learning

Traffic flow has the characteristics of randomness, complexity, and nonlinearity, which brings great difficulty to the prediction of short-term traffic flow. Based on considering the advantages and disadvantages of various prediction models, this paper proposes a short-term traffic flow prediction model based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and machine learning. Firstly, CEEMDAN is used to decompose the original traffic flow time series to obtain multiple component sequences with huge complexity differences. In order to measure the complexity of each component sequence, the permutation entropy of each component sequence is calculated. According to the permutation entropy, the component sequence is divided into three types: high-frequency components, intermediate-frequency components, and low-frequency components. Secondly, according to the different volatility of the three types of components, the high-frequency components, intermediate-frequency components, and low-frequency components are predicted by long short-term memory (LSTM), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbor (KNN), respectively. Finally, the accurate traffic flow prediction value can be obtained by the linear superposition of the prediction results of the three component prediction models. Through a measured traffic flow data, the combined model proposed in this paper is compared to the binary gray wolf algorithm–long short-term memory (BGWO-LSTM) model, the improved gray wolf algorithm–support vector machine (IGWO-SVM) model, and the KNN model. The mean square error (MSE) of the combined model is less than that of the BGWO-LSTM model, the IGWO-SVM model, and the KNN model by 41.26, 44.98, and 57.69, respectively. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the combined model is less than that of the BGWO-LSTM model, the IGWO-SVM model, and the KNN model by 2.33, 2.44, and 2.70, respectively. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the combined model is less than that of the BGWO-LSTM model, the IGWO-SVM model, and the KNN model by 2.89, 3.11, and 3.80, respectively. The three error indexes of the combined model are far smaller than those of the other single models. At the same time, the decision coefficient (R2) of the combined model is also closer to 1 compared to the other models, indicating that the prediction result of the combined model is the closest to the actual traffic flow.

A Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on an Improved Gate Recurrent Unit Neural Network

With the increasing demand for intelligent transportation systems, short-term traffic flow prediction has become an important research direction. The memory unit of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network can store data characteristics over a certain period of time, hence the suitability of this network for time series processing. This paper uses an improved Gate Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network to study the time series of traffic parameter flows. The LSTM short-term traffic flow prediction based on the flow series is first investigated, and then the GRU model is introduced. The GRU can be regarded as a simplified LSTM. After extracting the spatial and temporal characteristics of the flow matrix, an improved GRU with a bidirectional positive and negative feedback called the Bi-GRU prediction model is used to complete the short-term traffic flow prediction and study its characteristics. The Rectified Adaptive (RAdam) model is adopted to improve the shortcomings of the common optimizer. The cosine learning rate attenuation is also used for the model to avoid converging to the local optimal solution and for the appropriate convergence speed to be controlled. Furthermore, the scientific and reliable model learning rate is set together with the adaptive learning rate in RAdam. In this manner, the accuracy of network prediction can be further improved. Finally, an experiment of the Bi-GRU model is conducted. The comprehensive Bi-GRU prediction results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Attention Mechanism With Spatial-Temporal Joint Model for Traffic Flow Speed Prediction

Intelligent transportation system (ITS) plays an important role in solving today’s transportation problems, and short-term traffic flow prediction is at its core. Deep learning can extract and capture abstract high-order features, and introducing attention mechanism to improve the performance of deep learning algorithm has been verified in many fields. Due to the complexity and randomness of traffic flow, accurate traffic flow prediction is not a simple task. Reasonable use of deep learning to predict traffic flow is of great significance to the whole transportation system. In this paper, the reason of choosing recurrent neural network (RNN) as the basic network for traffic flow prediction is explained. Aiming at the problem of gradient disappearance in practical application, the long short-term memory network (LSTM) is introduced to improve the model, and the model framework, algorithm and training process are described in detail. Attention mechanism is introduced into LSTM-RNN to build a short-term traffic flow prediction model. Applying the proposed model to observed traffic flow data, we found that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy and model efficiency.

Spatial–temporal short-term traffic flow prediction model based on dynamical-learning graph convolution mechanism

Short-term traffic flow prediction is a core branch of intelligent traffic systems (ITS) and plays an important role in traffic management. The graph convolution network (GCN) is widely used in traffic prediction models to efficiently handle the graphical structural data of road networks. However, the influence weights among different road sections are usually distinct in real life and are difficult to analyze manually. The traditional GCN mechanism, which relies on a manually set adjacency matrix, is unable to dynamically learn such spatial patterns during training. To address this drawback, this study proposes a novel location graph convolutional network (location-GCN). The location-GCN solves this problem by adding a new learnable matrix to the GCN mechanism, using the absolute value of this matrix to represent the distinct influence levels among different nodes. Subsequently, long short-term memory (LSTM) is employed in the proposed traffic prediction model. Moreover, trigonometric function encoding was used in this study to enable the short-term input sequence to convey long-term periodic information. Finally, the proposed model was compared with the baseline models and evaluated on two real-world traffic flow datasets. The results show that our model is more accurate and robust than the other representative traffic prediction models.

A Multifeature Fusion Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Deep Learnings

Short-term traffic flow prediction is an important component of intelligent transportation systems, which can support traffic trip planning and traffic management. Although existing predicting methods have been applied in the field of traffic flow prediction, they cannot capture the complex multifeatures of traffic flows resulting in unsatisfactory short-term traffic flow prediction results. In this paper, a multifeature fusion model based on deep learning methods is proposed, which consists of three modules, namely, a CNN-Bidirectional GRU module with an attention mechanism (CNN-BiGRU-attention) and two Bidirectional GRU modules with an attention mechanism (BiGRU-attention). The CNN-BiGRU-attention module is used to extract local trend features and long-term dependent features of the traffic flow, and the two BiGRU-attention modules are used to extract daily and weekly periodic features of the traffic flow. Moreover, a feature fusion layer in the model is used to fuse the features extracted by each module. And then, the number of neurons in the model, the loss function, and other parameters such as the optimization algorithm are discussed and set up through simulation experiments. Finally, the multifeature fusion model is trained and tested based on the training and test sets from the data collected from the field. And the results indicate that the proposed model can better achieve traffic flow prediction and has good robustness. Furthermore, the multifeature fusion model is compared and analyzed against the baseline models with the same dataset, and the experimental results show that the multifeature fusion model has superior predictive performance compared to the baseline models.

Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction with Structure-Optimized Deep Belief Network

This paper proposes a structure-optimized deep belief network method for short-term traffic flow forecast, which is used to solve the problems of too simple training data in deep learning short-term traffic flow forecast and random selection of model structure construction parameters. We constructed a deep belief network short-term traffic flow forecast model that can simultaneously train three types of traffic data related to the predicted node traffic volume, enhance the spatiotemporal correlation of predictions, and overcome the shortcomings of too single training data. At the same time, we optimize the short-term traffic flow prediction model structure of the deep belief network; and use the T-PSO algorithm to optimize the hidden layer structure parameters of the prediction model. It can avoid the decrease in the practicability of the model caused by the random selection of the model structure construction parameters. The experimental results show that the method of structure-optimized deep belief network is feasible and effective, and the prediction accuracy is better than the classic deep learning prediction model.

Short term traffic flow prediction of expressway service area based on STL-OMS

To improve the management ability of expressway service area and formulate strategies for traffic flow changes in time, a short-term traffic flow prediction model is proposed. Firstly, cleaning the extracted data according to the rules and constructing four kinds of features (temporal, spatial, statistical and external factors). Then, a short-term traffic flow prediction model WADNN (wide attention and deep neural networks) is constructed. In the model, LSTM (long and short-term memory neural network), CNN (convolution neural network) and self-attention mechanism are used to extract different features respectively. In addition, the STL (Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS) algorithm is used to decompose the traffic flow to fit the trend better. For the three decomposed components, the OMS (optimal model selection) operation is carried out, the prediction of each component is added to obtain the final predicted value, and the model effect is measured according to the RMSE (root mean square error), MAE (mean absolute error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and R2 coefficient. Finally, taking an expressway service area as an example, the proposed model is compared with some common models. The results show that the prediction effect of WADNN is better and STL-OMS can further improve the accuracy.

Prediction model for short‐term traffic flow based on a K‐means‐gated recurrent unit combination

Short-term forecasting of traffic flow is an indispensable part of easing traffic pressure. Considering that different traffic flow patterns will affect the short-term traffic flow prediction results, a combined method based on the K-means clustering algorithm and gated recurrent unit (GRU) is proposed to build a short-term traffic flow prediction model to overcome the above problems. The K-means algorithm is used to cluster historical traffic flow data to establish different traffic flow pattern libraries. The K-nearest neighbour (KNN) classification algorithm is used to determine the historical traffic flow pattern most similar to the traffic flow change trend of the date to be predicted. All historical traffic flow data in this category is used training samples to make targeted predictions. The traffic flow data of performance measurement system (PeMS) in California, USA is used to verify the performance of the proposed model. Compared with the GRU network, stacked auto encoders (SAEs), random forest (RF), and support vector machine regression (SVR), the results show that the proposed combination model K-means-GRU considers the diversity of traffic flow patterns and improves the prediction accuracy, it can better solve the short-term traffic flow prediction problem.

An Optimal Deep Learning for Cooperative Intelligent Transportation System

Cooperative Intelligent Transport System (C-ITS) plays a vital role in the future road traffic management system. A vital element of C-ITS comprises vehicles, road side units, and traffic command centers, which produce a massive quantity of data comprising both mobility and service-related data. For the extraction of meaningful and related details out of the generated data, data science acts as an essential part of the upcoming C-ITS applications. At the same time, prediction of short-term traffic flow is highly essential to manage the traffic accurately. Due to the rapid increase in the amount of traffic data, deep learning (DL) models are widely employed, which uses a non-parametric approach for dealing with traffic flow forecasting. This paper focuses on the design of intelligent deep learning based short-term traffic flow prediction (IDL-STFLP) model for C-ITS that assists the people in various ways, namely optimization of signal timing by traffic signal controllers, travelers being able to adapt and alter their routes, and so on. The presented IDL-STFLP model operates on two main stages namely vehicle counting and traffic flow prediction. The IDL-STFLP model employs the Fully Convolutional Redundant Counting (FCRC) based vehicle count process. In addition, deep belief network (DBN) model is applied for the prediction of short-term traffic flow. To further improve the performance of the DBN in traffic flow prediction, it will be optimized by Quantum-behaved bat algorithm (QBA) which optimizes the tunable parameters of DBN. Experimental results based on benchmark dataset show that the presented method can count vehicles and predict traffic flow in real-time with a maximum performance under dissimilar environmental situations.

A hybrid deep learning model with 1DCNN-LSTM-Attention networks for short-term traffic flow prediction

With the rapid development of social economy, the traffic volume of urban roads has raised significantly, which has led to increasingly serious urban traffic congestion problems, and has caused much inconvenience to people’s travel. By focusing on the complexity and long-term dependence of traffic flow sequences on urban road, this paper considered the traffic flow data and weather conditions of the road section comprehensively, and proposed a short-term traffic flow prediction model based on the attention mechanism and the 1DCNN-LSTM network. The model combined the time expansion of the CNN and the advantages of the long-term memory of the LSTM. First, the model employs 1DCNN network to extract the spatial features in the road traffic flow data. Second, the output spatial features are considered as the input of LSTM neural network to extract the time features in road traffic flow data, and the long-term dependence characteristics of LSTM neural network are adopted to improve the prediction accuracy of traffic flow. Next, the spatio-temporal characteristics of road traffic flow were regarded as the input of the regression prediction layer, and the prediction results corresponding to the current input were calculated. Finally, the attention mechanism was introduced on the LSTM side to give enough attention to the key information, so that the model can focus on learning more important data features, and further improve the prediction performance. The experimental results showed that the prediction effect of the 1DCNN-LSTM-Attention model under the weather factor was better than that without considering the weather factor. At the same time, compared with traditional neural network models, the prediction effect of the proposed model revealed faster convergence speed and higher prediction accuracy. It can be found that for short-term traffic flow prediction on urban roads, the 1DCNN-LSTM network structure considering the attention mechanism provides superior features.

Explanatory prediction of traffic congestion propagation mode: A self-attention based approach

Short-term traffic flow forecasting, an important component of intelligent transportation systems (ITS), is a challenging research direction as forecasting itself is affected by a series of complex factors. As more and more attention is paid to the data itself, deep learning methods have attained mainstream popularity for accomplishing traffic flow prediction tasks. In recent years, the attention mechanism has been widely used in various fields thanks to its excellent result interpretation ability and its capability to improve the performance of neural network models. In terms of time series data prediction, LSTM has demonstrated its powerful time feature extraction capability. Because of its ability to efficiently and quickly extract spatial–temporal features, CNN is often used in combination with LSTM and attention mechanisms to obtain accurate traffic flow prediction forecast results. In this paper, we propose a short-term traffic flow prediction model based on self-attention, and test the performance of the model experimentally with real data. The model can achieve the best prediction results compared with other classical models. In addition, the temporal and spatial features extracted by the model have certain physical characteristics making results easier to interpret.

An urban short-term traffic flow prediction model based on wavelet neural network with improved whale optimization algorithm

To solve the problem of urban traffic congestion is a major challenge to modern society. Short-term urban traffic flow prediction is the key to realizing traffic control and vehicle guidance on the relief of traffic congestion to make a better city experience. Short-term urban traffic flow is characterized by a high level of time-variation, nonlinearity and randomness. To tackle this problem and to improve the performance of short-term traffic flow prediction, the author of this paper comes up with an improved whale optimization algorithm (IWOA) and tries to introduce it into the wavelet neural network (WNN) so as to optimize its initial weights and wavelet factors via iteration and to establish a short-term traffic flow prediction model based on Wavelet Neural Network with Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm (IWOA-WNN). This model appears to predict traffic flow in a more effective manner and it can remedy the defects of wavelet neural network which usually leads to low prediction accuracy and slow response. The experimental results show that compared with the pure WNN model and WOA-WNN model, the IWOA-WNN model has turned out to be a great improvement in terms of absolute error and percentage of absolute error.

Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction for Urban Road Sections Based on Time Series Analysis and LSTM_BILSTM Method

The real-time performance and accuracy of traffic flow prediction directly affect the efficiency of traffic flow guidance systems, and traffic flow prediction is a hotspot in the field of intelligent transportation. To further improve the accuracy of short-term traffic flow prediction, a short-term traffic flow prediction model based on traffic flow time series analysis, and an improved long short-term memory network (LSTM) is proposed. First, perform time series analysis on traffic flow data and perform smoothing and standardization processing to obtain a stable time series as model input data, which can improve the accuracy of model training and eliminate the impact of a wide range of feature values. Then, an improved LSTM model based on LSTM and bidirectional LSTM networks are established. Combining the advantages of sequential data and the long-term dependence of forwarding LSTM and reverse LSTM, the bidirectional long-term memory network (BILSTM) is integrated into the prediction model. The first layer of the LSTM network learns and predicts the input time series and further learns and trains through the bidirectional LSTM network to effectively overcome the large prediction errors. Finally, the performance of the proposed method is evaluated by comparing the predicted results with actual traffic data. The model that is proposed in this paper is compared with the long short-term memory network (LSTM) model and the bidirectional long-term memory network (BILSTM) model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms both compared methods in terms of accuracy and stability.

Short-term traffic flow prediction model based on deep learning regression algorithm

Short-term traffic flow prediction model based on deep learning regression algorithm