Short-term Power Research Articles

Seasonal short-term photovoltaic power prediction based on GSK–BiGRU–XGboost considering correlation of meteorological factors

Seasonal short-term photovoltaic power prediction based on GSK–BiGRU–XGboost considering correlation of meteorological factors

Short-term power load forecasting based on SKDR hybrid model

Short-term power load forecasting based on SKDR hybrid model

An integrated frequency domain decomposition and deep neural network approach for short-term PV power forecast

An integrated frequency domain decomposition and deep neural network approach for short-term PV power forecast

Small-Sample Short-Term Photovoltaic Output Prediction Model Based on GRA-SSA-GNNM Method

The precision of photovoltaic (PV) output forecasting results is crucial to the reliability of the intelligent distribution network and multi-energy supplementary system. This work aims to address problems of insufficient research related to the short-term prediction of small-sample PV power generation and the low prediction accuracy in the previous research. A hybrid prediction model based on grey relation analysis (GRA) combined with the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) and the grey neural network model (GNNM) is proposed. In this paper, GRA is utilized to reduce the dimension of meteorological features of the samples. Then, the GNNM is used to perform regression analysis on the input features after reducing the dimension of meteorological features of the samples, and the parameters of the GNNM are optimized via SSA. A limited dataset was used to compare several models in different seasons and weather conditions. The prediction results agree well with the data from the PV power plant in Xinjiang, indicating that the GRA-SSA-GNNM model developed in this work effectively achieves a high precision estimation in short-term PV power generation output prediction and has a promising application in this field.

Short-term power load forecast using OOA optimized bidirectional long short-term memory network with spectral attention for the frequency domain

Accurate short-term power load forecasting is crucial for maintaining the stability and efficiency of modern power systems, especially in the face of increasing volatility and complexity. This paper introduces a novel approach for short-term power load forecasting by integrating the Osprey Optimization Algorithm (OOA) with a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network enhanced by a spectral attention mechanism. The OOA optimizes the hyperparameters of the BiLSTM, improving the model's global search capability and avoiding local optima. The spectral attention mechanism further refines the model by focusing on key frequency components in the time series data. Experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed model, achieving an RMSE of 0.1382, MAE of 0.0659, and MAPE of 1.14 %, significantly outperforming traditional methods. The model's effectiveness is particularly notable in capturing complex patterns during critical peak and trough periods, making it a valuable tool for enhancing grid operation and management.

The short-term wind power prediction based on a multi-layer stacked model of BO-CNN-BiGRU-SA

Wind power generation is influenced by various meteorological factors, exhibiting significant volatility and unpredictability. This variability presents considerable challenges for accurate wind power forecasting. In this study, we propose an innovative method for short-term wind power prediction that integrates a Bayesian-optimized Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Units (BiGRU), and a Self-Attention Mechanism (SA) within a multi-layer architecture. Initially, we preprocess features using Pearson correlation analysis and input them into the CNN to investigate complex nonlinear spatial relationships among multiple feature variables and the current load. Subsequently, the BiGRU captures long-term dependencies from both forward and backward time sequences. Finally, we implement the Self-Attention Mechanism to weigh the features and generate the predicted wind power. We optimize the model's numerous hyperparameters utilizing a Bayesian algorithm. Through comparative ablation experiments with varying time segment lengths on wind farm datasets from four regions, our method significantly outperforms 11 models, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and surpasses several state-of-the-art (SOTA) prediction models, such as iTransformer, PatchTST, Non-stationary Transformers, TSMixer, and DLinear. The highest coefficient of determination (R²) achieved was 0.981, with the Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) decreasing by 11.22% to 62.04% compared to other models. The results demonstrate the predictive accuracy and generalization performance of our proposed model.

A distributed photovoltaic short-term power forecasting model based on lightweight AI for edge computing

Abstract In recent years, an immense amount of distributed photovoltaics are integrated into low-voltage distribution network, producing a substantial volume of operational data. The centralized cloud data center cannot process massive amounts of data precisely and promptly. Therefore, the operational status of distributed photovoltaic systems in low-voltage distribution network becomes difficult to predict. However, edge computing in the distribution network enables local data processing to improve the forecasting service’s real-time reliability. In this regard, this paper proposes a distributed photovoltaic short-term power forecasting model based on lightweight AI algorithms. Firstly, based on the Pearson correlation coefficient method, an analysis is conducted on the historical operational data in the network to extract important meteorological features correlated with the photovoltaic power output. Secondly, a distributed photovoltaic power forecasting model for the distribution network is constructed based on the Xception and attention mechanism. Finally, the model is trained using pruning, which removes redundant parts of the model, resulting in a compact and efficient forecasting model. By validating real-world datasets, the results demonstrate that the model presented in this article has a smaller size and higher forecasting accuracy than other state-of-the-art forecasting models.

A short-term load forecasting method based on QRLSTM considering multiple factors analysis

Abstract Complex characteristics of power loads terribly affect the safety of the power grid. Thus, accurate short-term load forecasting is regarded as a solution to mitigate the effect of load complications. In this regard, this work is putting forward a Long Short-Term Memory Network Quantile Regression (LSTMQR) for power load, obtaining the probability density function (PDF). Firstly, the quantile of future power load was obtained using the LSTMQR model. The conditional quantile obtained by the LSTMQR model is used as the input of the Kernel Density Estimation model (KDE) to predict the future probability density distribution of short-term power load at different prediction times. Furthermore, an assessment method is proposed to quantify the effect of different factors on power load to improve prediction accuracy. Finally, a numerical simulation based on actual data in China is established to validate the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting algorithm, indicating the proposed forecasting algorithm can effectively evaluate the relationship between different factors and power load, and probability density prediction can accurately quantify the uncertainty of load information. The proposed algorithm results in a reduction of 37.6% in forecast error compared to the traditional forecasting algorithm.

Very short-term wind power forecasting considering static data: An improved transformer model

The randomness and fluctuations in wind power generation present significant challenges for grid and wind farm dispatching. Accurate very short-term wind power forecasting (WPF) is therefore essential for the efficient operation of modern power systems. Data-driven models, such as Transformers, have demonstrated their effectiveness in WPF due to their ability to efficiently capture global features in long sequences. However, limited research has examined the impact of incorporating static data into WPF, which may limit forecasting accuracy. This paper proposes a Temporal Fusion Transformer forecasting model to address this challenge. This approach employs static data as the input features for the model. The model includes feature selection through a variable selection network and employs a specialized temporal fusion decoder to learn effectively from these static features. The case results show that the results of the proposed model are more accurate than the state-of-the-art methods, reducing MAPE by at least 1.32%, RMSE by 0.0091, and improving R2 by 0.035 in case studies. Additionally, the model maintains a manageable computational burden, underscoring its practical applicability.

Based on Deep Learning Model and Flink Streaming Computing Short Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Prediction for Suburban Distribution Network

With the advancement of global energy internet construction, accurate prediction of new energy generation power such as photovoltaic is an important foundation for ensuring the safety and economic working of new power systems. A short-term photovoltaic power generation prediction method for suburban distribution networks based on deep learning model fusion and Flink flow calculation is proposed to address the challenges of complex power grids, diversified disturbance factors, and isolated monitoring points. This method uses Bi directional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM) to extract cross sequential nonlinear characteristic of photovoltaic power generation time series data. Compared with standard LSTM, BiLSTM can consider both historical and future information simultaneously, thus extracting richer extracted features from power generation time series data. This method also integrates attention mechanism to capture the importance distribution of historical temporal features for power generation prediction, effectively solving the problem of long-term temporal dependence in standard LSTM models. The Flink streaming computing framework embeds a trained BiLSTM-Attention photovoltaic power generation prediction model, enabling real-time prediction and monitoring analysis of photovoltaic power generation at various monitoring points in the suburban distribution network. This article uses a dataset of a suburban photovoltaic power station for validation, and trains the model with historical power generation data, meteorological factors, weather types, seasons, and other information as inputs. The BiLSTM-Attention fusion model studys the temporal characteristics of power generation, and has high accuracy in predicting short-term photovoltaic power generation in different scenarios. The Flink streaming computing platform can not only process high throughput predicted power data, but also has low time delay.

A Short-term PV Power Prediction and Uncertainty Analysis Model Based on CEEMDAN and AHA-BP

The stochastic and intermittent nature of photovoltaic (PV) generation brings a series of scheduling problems to the power system. An effective prediction of PV power is essential to minimize the impact of uncertainty. Therefore, this paper presents an integrated prediction model with complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), the artificial hummingbird algorithm (AHA), and the BP neural network (BPNN) for predicting power generation from PV power plants, and a methodology for uncertainty analysis by using the nonparametric kernel density estimation (NPKDE). First, one month of PV power is decomposed into an array of components using CEEMDAN. Then, the weights and thresholds of the BPNN are optimized by using AHA. These components are trained using the BPNN. Finally, the final prediction results are obtained by superimposing the components, and NPKDE is employed to compute the probability density and confidence interval of the prediction error. The proposed prediction method demonstrates superior predictive performance in comparison with other models. Also, the NPKDE approach better describes the accuracy of the probability density distribution.

Short-term power consumption forecasting using neural networks with first- and second-order differencing

Short-term power consumption forecasting using neural networks with first- and second-order differencing

Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Method Based on Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm, Variational Mode Decomposition, and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network

Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Method Based on Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm, Variational Mode Decomposition, and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network

A study of short-term wind power segmentation forecasting method considering weather on ramp segments

The short-term fluctuation of wind power can affect its prediction accuracy. Thus, a short-term segmentation prediction method of wind power based on ramp segment division is proposed. A time-series trend extraction method based on moving average iteration is proposed on the full-time period to analyze the real-time change characteristics of power time-series initially; secondly, a ramp segment extraction method based on its definition and identification technique is proposed based on the results of the trend extraction; and a segmentation prediction scheme is proposed to lean the power prediction under different time-series: the LightGBM-LSTM is proposed for the non-ramping segment using point prediction, and the CNN-BiGRU-KDE is proposed for probabilistic prediction of ramp segments. From the results, this ramp segment definition and identification technique can effectively identify the ramp process of wind power, which makes up for the misidentification and omission of the classical climbing event definition; meanwhile, the segment prediction scheme not only meets the prediction accuracy requirements of the non-ramping segment, but also provides the effective robust information for the prediction of the ramping period, which offers reliable reference information for the actual wind farms. In particular, it is well adapted to wind power prediction under extreme working conditions caused by ramping weather, which is a useful addition to short-term wind power prediction research.

Application of SHAP and Multi-Agent Approach for Short-Term Forecast of Power Consumption of Gas Industry Enterprises

Currently, machine learning methods are widely applied in the power industry to solve various tasks, including short-term power consumption forecasting. However, the lack of interpretability of machine learning methods can lead to their incorrect use, potentially resulting in electrical system instability or equipment failures. This article addresses the task of short-term power consumption forecasting, one of the tasks of enhancing the energy efficiency of gas industry enterprises. In order to reduce the risks of making incorrect decisions based on the results of short-term power consumption forecasts made by machine learning methods, the SHapley Additive exPlanations method was proposed. Additionally, the application of a multi-agent approach for the decomposition of production processes using self-generation agents, energy storage agents, and consumption agents was demonstrated. It can enable the safe operation of critical infrastructure, for instance, adjusting the operation modes of self-generation units and energy-storage systems, optimizing the power consumption schedule, and reducing electricity and power costs. A comparative analysis of various algorithms for constructing decision tree ensembles was conducted to forecast power consumption by gas industry enterprises with different numbers of categorical features. The experiments demonstrated that using the developed method and production process factors reduced the MAE from 105.00 kWh (MAPE of 16.81%), obtained through expert forecasting, to 15.52 kWh (3.44%). Examples were provided of how the use of SHapley Additive exPlanation can increase the safety of the electrical system management of gas industry enterprises by improving experts’ confidence in the results of the information system.

Enhancing Photovoltaic Power Predictions with Deep Physical Chain Model

Predicting solar power generation is a complex challenge with multiple issues, such as data quality and choice of methods, which are crucial to effectively integrate solar power into power grids and manage photovoltaic plants. This study creates a hybrid methodology to improve the accuracy of short-term power prediction forecasts using a model called Transformer Bi-LSTM (Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory). This model, which combines elements from the transformer architecture and bidirectional LSTM (Long–Short-Term Memory), is evaluated using two strategies: the first strategy makes a direct prediction using meteorological data, while the second employs a chain of deep learning models based on transfer learning, thus simulating the traditional physical chain model. The proposed approach improves performance and allows you to incorporate physical models to refine forecasts. The results outperform existing methods on metrics such as mean absolute error, specifically by around 24%, which could positively impact power grid operation and solar adoption.

MC-VMD-CNN-BiLSTM short-term wind power prediction considering rolling error correction

Abstract Wind energy is a clean and renewable source that has the potential to alleviate the global fossil fuel crisis and environmental pollution by generating electricity. However, accurately predicting wind energy output remains challenging due to its inherent uncertainty. To enhance the accuracy of wind power prediction, a short-term wind power forecasting method for power systems, MC-VMD-CNN-BiLSTM, is proposed, which considers error rolling correction. The method begins with feature selection and outlier handling using the quadrature method. Then, wind power data is decomposed into multiple sub-sequences using the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) technique to reduce the raw volatility of wind power. Then, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) followed by a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) model is used for wind power prediction. Finally, the proposed method utilizes the Monte Carlo method for rolling error correction by using known errors from previous time frames to correct subsequent predictions. The MC-VMD-CNN-BiLSTM proposed in this paper considering error rolling correction is compared with ELM, SVM, PSO-BP and ARIMA models through an example analysis of the data of a city, and the proposed model in this paper reduces 61.78%, 50.35%, 62.30% and 73.05% in the NRMSE index in the spring as an example, respectively. The results show that the prediction model proposed in this paper has higher prediction accuracy compared with the traditional prediction model.

CGAformer: Multi-scale feature Transformer with MLP architecture for short-term photovoltaic power forecasting

Accurately predicting the output power of photovoltaic (PV) systems is an effective means to ensure the reliable and economical operation of grid-connected PV systems. Aiming at the characteristics of PV power generation such as strong volatility, high intermittency and obvious periodicity, a hybrid model named CGAformer based on One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN1D), Global Additive Attention (GADAttention), and Auto-Correlation is proposed for short-term PV power generation prediction. The model uses CNN1D to extract local features and obtains global weights by improving the GADAttetion obtained by additive attention. Auto-Correlation integrates local features and global weights and identifies repeated patterns in the sequence to obtain highly coupled multi-scale features, and finally generates the final prediction results through Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). In order to verify the effectiveness of the model, this paper uses a historical dataset from a PV system located in Uluru, Australia for sufficient experiments. In the comparative experiments, The overall average RMSE and MAE of CGAformer are improved by 6.82% and 20.46% respectively compared with long short-term memory (LSTM). In addition, ablation experiments and seasonal analysis are used to verify the effectiveness of the model and its excellent generalization ability for different seasons.

Flexibility potential quantification of electric vehicle charging clusters

A significant obstacle to providing flexibility services with electric vehicles (EVs) is the uncertainty surrounding the profitability and flexibility potential of charging clusters when utilised as a flexible load. Currently, there is a lack of comprehensive and easily applicable methods for quantifying flexibility in the literature. This paper introduces an evaluation tool and a set of flexibility indexes to assess the capability of charging clusters to deliver flexibility services. The method is designed to evaluate and quantify the flexibility potential of charging clusters in terms of short-term and long-term power adjustments and charge scheduling. Through sensitivity analysis, we examine how connection capacity, EV battery capacities, power capabilities, and the number of daily charging sessions influence the flexibility potential of charging clusters. Our findings highlight a direct relationship between the grid connection capacity of clusters and their ability to perform short-term power adjustments. Moreover, while larger batteries tend to reduce energy and time flexibility, their increased storage capability facilitates managing and scheduling a larger energy volume. Furthermore, for the days analysed, the flexibility potential showed minimal sensitivity to the number of daily charging sessions. Instead, the amount of energy requested and connection patterns emerge as key determinants of overall flexibility. In summary, this research provides valuable insights that can inform the design, monitoring, and assessment of EV charging clusters when evaluating their suitability for various flexibility services.

A short-term wind power forecasting model based on CUR

Abstract Wind power forecasting plays a crucial role in the contemporary renewable energy system. During the process of forecasting wind power, the establishment of LSTM models requires a lot of time and effort, and the interpretability of prediction results is poor, making it difficult to understand and verify the results. To accomplish interpretable and precise wind power predictions, this paper introduces a wind power prediction algorithm model leveraging CUR matrix decomposition. The CUR matrix decomposition method first obtains the original matrix A (wind power data matrix). The statistical influence scores of rows and columns in A are calculated, and several columns and rows with higher scores are selected to form a low dimensional matrix C and R. Matrix C contains the main characteristic factors that affect wind power, while matrix R contains time series features. Then, the matrix U is approximated by A, C, and R to transform the preference feature extraction problem in high-dimensional space into a matrix analysis problem in low-dimensional space, making it more interpretable and accurate. The efficacy of the wind power forecasting approach utilizing CUR matrix decomposition is assessed and confirmed on openly accessible datasets. The results indicate that the CUR matrix decomposition method has good prediction accuracy and interpretability.