Short-term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Research Articles

Application of three Transformer neural networks for short-term photovoltaic power prediction: A case study

In order to solve the potential safety hazards caused by the fluctuation of photovoltaic (PV) power generation, it is necessary to predict it in advance and take countermeasures as soon as possible. Based on the three models of vanilla Transformer, Informer, and Autoformer, this paper considers three prediction scenarios: zero-cost prediction, low-cost prediction, and high-cost prediction, and realizes the power prediction under two prediction horizons of 4 h and 24 h for a matrix of a centralized PV power station in Hubei Province, China. The results of some configurations meet the industry-recommended metric requirements, and the overall performance of the vanilla Transformer is better than Informer and Autoformer. After comparing the three models and different prediction intervals, and considering the practical industrial demand, this paper gives recommended configurations for both 4 h and 24 h predictions. The practical rolling prediction performance of the recommended configurations demonstrates the applicability and flexibility of the proposed methods.

Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on a Digital Twin Model

Due to the influence of meteorological conditions, shipboard photovoltaic (PV) systems have problems such as large fluctuation and inaccurate prediction of the output power. In this paper, a short-term PV power prediction method based on a novel digital twin (DT) model and BiLSTM is proposed. Firstly, a PV mechanism model and a data-driven model were established, in which the data-driven model was updated iteratively in real time using the sliding time window update method; then, these two models were converged to construct a PV DT model according to the DS evidence theory. Secondly, a BiLSTM model was built to make short-term predictions of the PV power using the augmented dataset of the DT model as an input. Finally, the method was tested and verified by experiments and further compared with main PV prediction methods. The research results indicate the following: firstly, the absolute error of the DT model was smaller than that of the mechanism model and the data-driven model, being as low as 5.62 W after the data update of the data-driven model; thus, the DT model realized data augmentation and high fidelity. Secondly, compared to several main PV prediction models, the PV DT model combined with BiLSTM had the lowest RMSE, MAE, and MAPE; the best followability; and the smallest absolute error under different weather conditions, which was especially obvious under cloudy weather conditions. In summary, the method can accurately predict the shipboard PV power, which has great theoretical significance and application value for improving the economy and reliability of solar ship operation.

Short-term Photovoltaic Power Prediction based on ICEEMDAN and Optimized Deep Hybrid Kernel Extreme Learning Machine

Short-term Photovoltaic Power Prediction based on ICEEMDAN and Optimized Deep Hybrid Kernel Extreme Learning Machine

Short-term photovoltaic power prediction model based on hierarchical clustering of K-means++ algorithm and deep learning hybrid model

In order to further improve the accuracy of photovoltaic (PV) power prediction and the stability of power system, a short-term PV power prediction model based on hierarchical clustering of K-means++ algorithm and deep learning hybrid model is proposed in this paper. First, hierarchical clustering of the K-means++ algorithm is used to cluster historical data into different weather scenes according to different seasons. Second, a hybrid model combining convolutional neural network (CNN), squeeze-and-excitation attention mechanism (SEAM), and bidirectional long short-term memory (BILSTM) neural network is constructed to capture long-term dependencies in time series, and the improved pelican optimization algorithm (IPOA) is used to optimize the hyperparameters in the prediction model. Finally, an example for modeling analysis is conducted by using the actual output and meteorological data of a PV power station in the Ili region of Xinjiang, China. The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model are verified by comparing with LSTM, BILSTM, CNN-BILSTM, and POA-CNN-SEAM-BILSTM models, and the superiority of IPOA is verified by comparing with particle swarm optimization and whale optimization algorithm. The results show that the proposed model can obtain better results under different weather scenes in different seasons, and the prediction accuracy of the model optimized by IPOA is further improved.

Short-term PV power prediction based on meteorological similarity days and SSA-BiLSTM

Accurate short-term photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting can reduce the un- certainty of PV power generation, which is crucial for grid operation as well as energy dispatch. Considering the influence of seasonal and meteorological factors on short-term PV power prediction, a short-term PV power predic- tion method based on meteorological similarity day and sparrow search algo- rithm and bi-directional long and short-term memory network combination (SSA-BiLSTM) is proposed. Firstly, the correlation between meteorological factors and PV power generation is calculated by using Pearson coefficients, getting the strongly correlated meteorological factors affecting PV power generation; afterwards,the historical data of the strongly correlated meteorological factors are clustered by fuzzy C-means clustering to achieve meteorological similar day clustering; then, the best similar day is selected from the meteorological similar day according to the test day seasonal features and meteorological data, and Forming a training set with historical data, and training the original BiLSTM network. the SSA algorithm was used to find the optimal BiLSTM network parameters. Finally, Using the optimal parameters construct BiLSTM network to achieve short-term PV power prediction. The experiments were conducted with historical data from a PV power plant in Xinjiang, and also compared with existing prediction algorithms.The results show that the accuracy of PV power prediction in different weather conditions is 33.1 %, 31.9 % and 24.1 % higher than that under the same intelligent optimization algorithm and different neural networks, the accuracy of PV power prediction in different weather conditions is 27.9 %, 24.7 % and 18.0 % higher than that under the different intelligent algorithms and same neural network. Therefore, the algorithm in this paper has better accuracy in short-term PV power prediction under different seasons and different weather conditions.

Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Extreme Learning Machine with Improved Dung Beetle Optimization Algorithm

Given the inherent volatility and intermittency of photovoltaic power generation, enhancing the precision of photovoltaic power predictions becomes imperative to ensure the stability of power systems and to elevate power quality. This article introduces an intelligent photovoltaic power prediction model based on the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) with the Adaptive Spiral Dung Beetle Optimization (ASDBO) algorithm. The model aims to accurately predict photovoltaic power generation under multi-factor correlation conditions, including environmental temperature and solar irradiance. The computational efficiency in high-dimensional data feature conditions is enhanced by using the Pearson correlation analysis to determine the state input of the ELM. To address local optimization challenges in traditional Dung Beetle Optimization (DBO) algorithms, a spiral search strategy is implemented during the dung beetle reproduction and foraging stages, expanding the exploration capabilities. Additionally, during the dung beetle theft stage, dynamic adaptive weights update the optimal food competition position, and the levy flight strategy ensures search randomness. By balancing convergence accuracy and search diversity, the proposed algorithm achieves global optimization. Furthermore, eight benchmark functions are chosen for performance testing to validate the effectiveness of the ASDBO algorithm. By optimizing the input weights and implicit thresholds of the ELM through the ASDBO algorithm, a prediction model is established. Short-term prediction experiments for photovoltaic power generation are conducted under different weather conditions. The selected experimental results demonstrate an average prediction accuracy exceeding 93%, highlighting the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed methodology for photovoltaic power prediction.

Short-Term Photovoltaic Output Prediction Based on Decomposition and Reconstruction and XGBoost under Two Base Learners

Photovoltaic power generation prediction constitutes a significant research area within the realm of power system artificial intelligence. Accurate prediction of future photovoltaic output is imperative for the optimal dispatchment and secure operation of the power grid. This study introduces a photovoltaic prediction model, termed ICEEMDAN-Bagging-XGBoost, aimed at enhancing the accuracy of photovoltaic power generation predictions. In this paper, the original photovoltaic power data initially undergo decomposition utilizing the Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN) algorithm, with each intrinsic mode function (IMF) derived from this decomposition subsequently reconstructed into high-frequency, medium-frequency, and low-frequency components. Targeting the high-frequency and medium-frequency components of photovoltaic power, a limiting gradient boosting tree (XGBoost) is employed as the foundational learner in the Bagging parallel ensemble learning method, with the incorporation of a sparrow search algorithm (SSA) to refine the hyperparameters of XGBoost, thereby facilitating more nuanced tracking of the changes in the photovoltaic power’s high-frequency and medium-frequency components. Regarding the low-frequency components, XGBoost-Linear is utilized to enable rapid and precise prediction. In contrast with the conventional superposition reconstruction approach, this study employs XGBoost for the reconstruction of the prediction output’s high-frequency, intermediate-frequency, and low-frequency components. Ultimately, the efficacy of the proposed methodology is substantiated by the empirical operation data from a photovoltaic power station in Hebei Province, China. Relative to integrated and traditional single models, this paper’s model exhibits a markedly enhanced prediction accuracy, thereby offering greater applicational value in scenarios involving short-term photovoltaic power prediction.

Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on CEEMDAN and Hybrid Neural Networks

Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on CEEMDAN and Hybrid Neural Networks

Combined IXGBoost-KELM short-term photovoltaic power prediction model based on multidimensional similar day clustering and dual decomposition

Accurate photovoltaic power prediction is important to ensure stable and safe operation of microgrids. However, due to the high volatility of photovoltaic power data, the prediction accuracy of traditional prediction models is often unsatisfactory. To ensure stable operation of microgrids, this study proposes a combined improved extreme gradient boosting-kernel extreme learning machine short-term photovoltaic power prediction model consisting of multidimensional similar day clustering and dual decomposition. Initially, gray relation analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient, and Kmeans++ are used for clustering to obtain high-precision similar days. Subsequently, a dual signal decomposition model based on variational modal decomposition and complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise is proposed. Finally, predictions are made using a combination of predictive models with complementary strengths and weaknesses, and the prediction results of each component are fitted with under three weather conditions, the average root mean square error is reduced by 78.02%,62.99%, and 62.48%, and the average mean absolute error is reduced by 82.55%, 71.13%, and 67.07% in comparison with the baseline model. The results show that the model is effective in improving the prediction accuracy in a variety of different environments.

A novel hybrid model for short-term prediction of PV power based on KS-CEEMDAN-SE-LSTM

Accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power plays a pivotal role in ensuring safe and stable grid operation, enhancing power supply quality, and facilitating proactive grid management to mitigate power fluctuations. This paper introduces a novel hybrid model named KS-CEEMDAN-SE-LSTM, which combines K-Shape (KS) clustering, Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), Sample entropy (SE), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) techniques. To improve the accuracy of PV power prediction, three advanced preprocessing techniques, KS clustering, CEEMDAN and SE, are employed for feature extraction before prediction. In the proposed approach, KS clustering is employed to capture the similarity features of PV power. Subsequently, CEEMDAN decomposes the PV power into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) to reduce the influence of non-stationary and noisy features in power prediction. To further enhance prediction accuracy and streamline computational complexity, SE methods and K-means clustering are utilized to reconstruct the decomposed IMFs into new sub-sequences with refined granularity features. Finally, the LSTM model is applied to predict each reconstructed sub-sequence, and the ultimate prediction results are obtained by aggregating the predictions from all sub-sequences. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated using real-world PV power data collected from China. Comprehensive experiments substantiate that the proposed KS-CEEMDAN-SE-LSTM model outperforms benchmark methods in short-term PV power prediction.

Short-term photovoltaic power prediction based on fractional Levy stable motion

Accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is the key to daily dispatch management and safe and stable grid operation. In order to improve the accuracy of the prediction, a finite iterative PV power prediction model with long range dependence (LRD) characteristics was developed using fractional Lévy stable motion (fLsm) and applied to a real dataset collected in the DKASC photovoltaic system in Alice Springs, Australia. The LRD prediction model considers the influence of current and past trends in the stochastic series on the future trends. Firstly, the calculation of the maximum steps prediction was introduced based on the maximum Lyapunov. The maximum prediction steps could provide the prediction steps for subsequent prediction models. Secondly, the order stochastic differential equation (FSDE) which describes the fLsm can be obtained. The parameters of the FSDE were estimated by using a novel characteristic function method. The PV power forecasting model with the LRD characteristics was obtained by discretization of FSDE. By comparing statistical performance indicators such as root max error, mean square error with Conv-LSTM, BiLSTM, and GA-LSTM models, the performance of the proposed fLsm model has been demonstrated. The proposed methods can provide better theoretical support for the stable and safe operation of PV grid connection. They have high reference value for grid dispatching department.

Photovoltaic power prediction method for zero energy consumption buildings based on multi-feature fuzzy clustering and MAOA-ESN

Due to their high efficiency and compatibility with building integration, photovoltaic (PV) power generation systems are frequently utilized in zero energy buildings. However, in zero energy buildings with a high proportion of PV systems, the instability of the PV power generation has resulted in various issues, including a significant influence on the primary grid and inadequate photovoltaic power generation utilization. Accurately predicting PV power is crucial for buildings to utilize solar energy and achieve zero energy consumption fully. Consequently, this paper proposed a novel hybrid short-term PV power prediction method based on an echo state network, fuzzy clustering, similar day, and an intelligent optimization algorithm to improve the accuracy of PV power prediction for zero energy buildings. First, the dataset is partitioned using an improved fuzzy C-mean clustering method (FCM), effectively reducing the effect of PV diversity on the model. Subsequently, an improved similarity day algorithm is employed to select the training data of Echo State Networks (ESN) to minimize the effect of randomness. The improved similarly day algorithm reduces the effect of randomness by retaining valuable samples. Moreover, the echo state network (ESN) parameters are sought using a multi-strategy collaborative improved Archimedean optimization algorithm (MAOA) to avoid poor prediction due to improper parameter settings. Finally, the model is evaluated using historical Australian PV data. The results show that the method effectively reduces the impacts of stochasticity and nonlinearity in the PV power generation process of zero-energy buildings and increases the accuracy of zero-energy building PV power prediction.

Research on short-term photovoltaic power prediction based on multi-scale similar days and ESN-KELM dual core prediction model

Research on short-term photovoltaic power prediction based on multi-scale similar days and ESN-KELM dual core prediction model

Hybrid model based on K-means++ algorithm, optimal similar day approach, and long short-term memory neural network for short-term photovoltaic power prediction

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is characterized by randomness and intermittency due to weather changes. Consequently, large-scale PV power connections to the grid can threaten the stable operation of the power system. An effective method to resolve this problem is to accurately predict PV power. In this study, an innovative short-term hybrid prediction model (i.e., HKSL) of PV power is established. The model combines K-means++, optimal similar day approach, and long short-term memory (LSTM) network. Historical power data and meteorological factors are utilized. This model searches for the best similar day based on the results of classifying weather types. Then, the data of similar day are inputted into the LSTM network to predict PV power. The validity of the hybrid model is verified based on the datasets from a PV power station in Shandong Province, China. Four evaluation indices, mean absolute error, root mean square error (RMSE), normalized RMSE, and mean absolute deviation, are employed to assess the performance of the HKSL model. The RMSE of the proposed model compared with those of Elman, LSTM, HSE (hybrid model combining similar day approach and Elman), HSL (hybrid model combining similar day approach and LSTM), and HKSE (hybrid model combining K-means++, similar day approach, and LSTM) decreases by 66.73%, 70.22%, 65.59%, 70.51%, and 18.40%, respectively. This proves the reliability and excellent performance of the proposed hybrid model in predicting power.

Short-term photovoltaic power prediction with similar-day integrated by BP-AdaBoost based on the Grey-Markov model

Short-term photovoltaic power prediction with similar-day integrated by BP-AdaBoost based on the Grey-Markov model

Short term photovoltaic power prediction based on transfer learning and considering sequence uncertainty

With the increasing proportion of solar grid-connected, the establishment of an accurate photovoltaic (PV) power prediction model is very important for safe operation and efficient dispatching of a power grid. Considering the multi-level periodicity of PV power caused by many factors, such as seasons and weather, a short-term PV power prediction model based on transfer component analysis is designed by introducing the idea of transfer learning. In order to measure the uncertainty of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and power sequence, a novel algorithm considering weather similarity and power trend similarity is proposed. First, the intrinsic trend is measured by extracting permutation entropy, variance, and mean from the historical PV power sequence. Second, weighting of NWP is accomplished based on the Pearson correlation coefficient. PV power data are divided into different clusters by K-medoids clustering. At the same time, the transfer component analysis alleviates the time-varying problem of data distribution caused by multi-level time periodicity and effectively improves the prediction accuracy of the model. Finally, simulation experiments are carried out on the PV power output dataset (PVOD). The results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is better than the traditional methods, and the accuracy and applicability of the proposed method are verified.

Multi-features fusion for short-term photovoltaic power prediction

Multi-features fusion for short-term photovoltaic power prediction

SSA-LSTM: Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Feature Matching

To reduce the impact of volatility on photovoltaic (PV) power generation forecasting and achieve improved forecasting accuracy, this article provides an in-depth analysis of the characteristics of PV power outputs under typical weather conditions. The trend of PV power generation and the similarity between simultaneous outputs are found, and a hybrid prediction model based on feature matching, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and a long short-term memory (LSTM) network is proposed. In this paper, correlation analysis is used to verify the trend of PV power generation; the similarity between forecasting days and historical meteorological data is calculated through grey relation analysis; and similar generated PV power levels are searched for phase feature matching. The input time series is decomposed by singular spectrum analysis; the trend component, oscillation component and noise component are extracted; and principal component analysis and reconstruction are carried out on each component. Then, an LSTM network prediction model is established for the reconstructed subsequences, and the external feature input is controlled to compare the obtained prediction results. Finally, the model performance is evaluated through the data of a PV power plant in a certain area. The experimental results prove that the SSA-LSTM model has the best prediction performance.

Development of MVMD-EO-LSTM Model for a Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction

The accuracy and stability of short-term photovoltaic (PV) power prediction is crucial for power planning and dispatching in a grid system. For this reason, the multi-resolution variational modal decomposition (MVMD) method is proposed to achieve multi-scale input features mining for short-term PV power prediction. Here, the MVMD combined with Spearman extracts correlation features of the weather data. An equilibrium optimizer (EO) is integrated with MVMD to achieve optimal values of the long short-term memory (LSTM) parameters. Firstly, the correlation of input features is determined and selected by Spearman. The MVMD model is used to mine the high correlation features of solar radiation and conduct cross-correlation analysis to extract input feature components. Secondly, the similar weather days of the sample set are classified to ensure a good adaptability in different weather situations. Finally, the high correlation features are introduced into the photovoltaic power prediction model of EO optimized LSTM. Performance analysis using actual output power data from a PV plant shows that the proposed MVMD feature extraction method can effectively mine correlation features to achieve an optimized dataset under different seasons. Compared with the gray wolf and particle swarm optimization algorithms, the proposed model has a better optimization performance in a low discrimination of input feature decomposition components and low correlation with output power.

Improved hybrid sparrow search algorithm for an extreme learning machine neural network for short‐term photovoltaic power prediction in 5G energy‐routing base stations

Given the advancements in solar power generation and fifth-generation (5G) technologies, it is crucial to reduce energy consumption based on accurate predictions of the photovoltaic power requirements of 5G base stations (BSs) connected to renewable energy sources. To ensure sufficient prediction performance even under complex weather conditions and promote two-way flow of energy and information in the power supply system of the 5G BS, this work first proposes a reference scenario for a 5G BS with an energy router. Then, the comprehensive grey relational analysis is used to determine the optimal photovoltaic input variables. Finally, the improved logistic distribution, Laplacian distribution with inverse incomplete gamma-function weight factor, and nonlinear mutation perturbation strategy are introduced to improve the ability of the sparrow search algorithm to avoid locally optimal solutions for an extreme learning machine of the short-term photovoltaic power prediction model. The proposed model is applied to actual measured data for validation, and the results show that this model has the lowest mean percentage error as well as highest prediction accuracy under different weather conditions. The coefficient of determination for the proposed prediction model is greater than 99%; therefore, it is expected to improve the photovoltaic prediction performances of 5G energy-routing BSs as well as promote sustainable development and sharing of energy and information.