Short-term Demand Forecasting Research Articles

A short-term load demand forecasting: Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), Bayesian regularization (BR), and scaled conjugate gradient (SCG) optimization algorithm analysis

A short-term load demand forecasting: Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), Bayesian regularization (BR), and scaled conjugate gradient (SCG) optimization algorithm analysis

Short-term power load forecasting for integrated energy system based on a residual and attentive LSTM-TCN hybrid network

In the context of Integrated Energy System (IES), accurate short-term power demand forecasting is crucial for ensuring system reliability, optimizing operational efficiency through resource allocation, and supporting effective real-time decision-making in energy management. However, achieving high forecasting accuracy faces significant challenges due to the inherent complexity and stochastic nature of IES’s short-term load profiles, resulting from diverse consumption patterns among end-users and the intricate coupling within the network of interconnected energy sources. To address this issue, a dedicated Short-Term Power Load Forecasting (STPLF) framework for IES is proposed, which relies on a newly developed hybrid deep learning architecture. The framework seamlessly combines Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) with Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), enhanced by an attention mechanism module. By merging these methodologies, the network leverages the parallel processing prowess of TCN alongside LSTM’s ability to retain long-range temporal information, thus enabling it to dynamically concentrate on relevant sections of time series data. This synergy leads to improved prediction accuracy and broader applicability. Furthermore, the integration of residual connections within the network structure serves to deepen its learning capabilities and enhance overall performance. Ultimately, results from a real case study of a user-level IES demonstrate that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the proposed framework on the test set is 2.35%. This error rate is lower than the averages of traditional methods (3.43%) and uncombined single submodules (2.80%).

Power Demand Forecasting Using ANN and Prophet Models for the Load Despatch Center in Andhra Pradesh, India

This paper uses various data variables to develop and analyze ANN and Prophet models for power demand forecasting in Andhra Pradesh, India. The electricity power consumption in Andhra Pradesh was about 51,756.000 GWh in 2021. Currently, there is a great emphasis on saving power. Power Demand Forecasting is creating much interest, and many models, such as artificial neural networks combined with other techniques based on real-life phenomena, are used and tested. These models have become an essential part of the power and energy sector. This paper considered specific time-series analysis methods and deep-learning techniques for short-term power demand forecasting. This paper also analyzes and compares results between the prophet and ANN models to predict power demand in Andhra Pradesh, India. Our results comparatively revealed the model's appropriateness for the problem. Both models performed well in three performance metrics: accuracy, generalization, and robustness. However, the AI model exhibits better accuracy than Prophet for the historical data set. The time taken for model fitting is also comparatively less for the AI models. The forecast accuracy of the electricity was in the range of 95 to 97.65.

Short-Term Load Demand Forecasting Based on Weather and Influencing Factors Using Deep Neural Network Experts for Sustainable Development Goal 7

Short-Term Load Demand Forecasting Based on Weather and Influencing Factors Using Deep Neural Network Experts for Sustainable Development Goal 7

Impact of short-term wind forecast accuracy on the performance of decarbonising wholesale electricity markets

As the proportion of variable renewable generation capacity in our electricity systems rises, so too will the associated absolute forecast errors in their generation. This work quantifies the complex interactions between short-term renewable generation forecasts, short-term demand forecasts, generator unit commitment and economic dispatch in electricity systems with levels of variable renewable generation spanning 49–79% of annual electricity demand. When the short-term operational uncertainty caused by renewable generation becomes larger in absolute terms than that of demand, the accuracy of renewable generation forecasting has a critical influence on electricity market performance. That is, inaccurate short-term wind forecasts can increase hours of unserved energy and scarcity hours spent at market price cap, increase total system costs and prices, significantly increase returns to thermal generators and energy storage, reduce returns to wind generators, and increase greenhouse gas emissions slightly. For the generalised case study considered in this work, the value of improved short term wind generation forecasts looks to becomes significant once variable renewables generate more than roughly 60% of annual electricity demand. Reductions in average market prices of 5 $/MWh or more then appear plausible as acceptable levels of reliability are recovered. As such, improvements in short-term renewable generation forecasting are likely required in order to justify continued investment in variable renewables as the major means of achieving decarbonisation efficiently and reliably, and these could be achieved by any combination of improved forecasting, dispatch control or on-site firming.

Selected aspects of generating short-term electricity demand forecasts, taking into account renewable energy sources

The risk of a decline in the quality of electricity demand forecasts in the short term increases due to the increase in the installed capacity of renewable energy sources (RES). This is mainly due to the high daily variability of electricity production from renewable sources, which is strongly dependent on local weather conditions. Production from renewable energy sources is a very complex time series, additionally reinforced by a significant increase in its share in total production. This applies in particular to photovoltaic sources in low-voltage networks. There is therefore an urgent need to improve the quality of forecasts in this area. The main goal of the research was to verify statistical models that often achieve good results in the complex problem of forecasting electricity demand. The main objective, regarding daily forecasts of consumers' demand for electricity, was achieved through the implementation of intermediate objectives, including the development of a methodology for estimating electricity generated by photovoltaic installations.

Correction: Short-term urban water demand forecasting; application of 1D convolutional neural network (1D CNN) in comparison with different deep learning schemes

Correction: Short-term urban water demand forecasting; application of 1D convolutional neural network (1D CNN) in comparison with different deep learning schemes

Comparison of Artificial Intelligence Techniques for The UK Air Passenger Short-Term Demand Forecasting: A Destination Insight Study

Web search queries become essential drivers to forecast air passenger demand for operational benefits. Scholars and marketing experts. Forecasting passenger demand is one of the most important marketing problems that experts frequently encounter, but there are very few studies in the literature using search queries. The main novelty of this study is to show that Destination Insight (DI) can be useful as an air passenger demand proxy in the UK. To prove this primary objective, this work uses several machine and deep learning multi-layer perceptron (MLP) methods based on a big-data framework. The findings indicate that DI is a crucial predictor of the UK air passenger demand. Besides, popular error metrics (RMSE, MAPE, MAD and AIC) were compared to find the best model in this study. Specifically, results indicate that MLP following feed forward neural networks works better for the UK air passenger market.

Forecasting Short-Term Peak Load Demand in the Libyan Power Grid using Multiple Regression Model

The demand for energy, particularly electricity, has been rising rapidly around the world and plays an important role in socio-economic development, especially in developing countries. Electricity load forecasting is a key task in power plant planning, as well as in efficient operation and sustainable growth of modern electricity distribution networks. This is to make Balancing the relationship between electricity demand and supply. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of meteorological factors such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed on short-term electricity demand forecasts in Libya. A model has been developed by means of multiple regression analysis and trend method techniques. It was found that there is a good correlation between the factors and electricity use. Since the final model exhibits some little deviation, this approach has proven to be helpful for predicting Libya's electricity consumption. The findings are analyzed and discussed in order to offer recommendations for using this approach for forecasting the short-term demand of electricity.

Data-driven fair resource allocation for novel emerging epidemics: a COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma case study

Epidemics are a serious public health threat, and the resources for mitigating their effects are typically limited. Decision-makers face challenges in forecasting the supply and demand for these resources as prior information about the disease is often not available, the behaviour of the disease can periodically change (either naturally or as a result of public health policies) and can differ by geographical region. In this work, we discuss a model that is suitable for short-term real-time supply and demand forecasting during emerging outbreaks. We consider a case study of demand forecasting and allocating scarce quantities of COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma (CCP) in an international multi-site Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) involving multiple hospital hubs across Canada (excluding Québec). We propose a data-driven mixed-integer programming (MIP) resource allocation model that assigns available resources to maximize a notion of fairness among the resource-demanding entities. Numerical results from applying our MIP model to the case study suggest that our approach can help balance the supply and demand of limited products such as CCP and minimize the unmet demand ratios of the demand entities. We analyse the sensitivity of our model to different allocation settings and show that our model assigns equitable allocations across the entities.

Short-Term Power Demand Forecasting Using Blockchain-Based Neural Networks Models

With the rapid development of blockchain technology, blockchain-based neural network short-term power demand forecasting has become a research hot spot in the power industry. This paper aims to combine neural network algorithms with blockchain technology to establish a trustworthy and efficient short-term demand forecasting model. By leveraging the distributed ledger and immutability features of blockchain, we ensure the security and reliability of power demand data. Meanwhile, short-term power demand forecasting research using neural networks has the potential to increase the stability of the power system and offer opportunities for improved operations. In this paper, the root mean-square-error model evaluation indicator was used to compare the back propagation (BP) neural network algorithm and the traditional forecasting algorithm. The evaluation was performed on the randomly selected five household power datasets. The results show that, by comparing the long short-term memory network (LSTM) model with the BP neural network model, it was determined that the average prediction impact increases by about 25.7% under stable power demand. The short-term power prediction model of the BP neural network has the average error values more than two times lower than the traditional prediction model. It was shown that the use of the BP neural network algorithm and blockchain could increase the accuracy of short-term power demand forecasting, allowing the neural network-based algorithm to be implemented and taken into account in the research on short-term power demand forecasting.

Short-term urban water demand forecasting; application of 1D convolutional neural network (1D CNN) in comparison with different deep learning schemes

Short-term urban water demand forecasting; application of 1D convolutional neural network (1D CNN) in comparison with different deep learning schemes

Exploring Deep Learning Approaches for Short-Term Passenger Demand Prediction

An accurate short-term passenger demand forecast makes a contribution to the coordination of traffic supply and demand. Forecasting the short-term passenger demand for the on-demand transportation service platform is of utmost significance since it might incentivize empty cars to relocate from over-supply regions to over-demand regions. Yet, because spatial, temporal, and exogenous dependencies need to be evaluated concurrently, short-term passenger demand forecasting may be rather difficult. This article aims to investigate several methods that can be utilized to forecast short-term traffic demand, with a primary emphasis on deep learning approaches. We examine varying degrees of temporal aggregation and how these levels affect various architectural configurations. In addition, by analyzing 22 models representing 5 distinct architectural configurations, we illustrate the influence of varying layer configurations within each architecture. The findings indicate that the long-term short memory (LSTM) structures perform the best for short-term time series forecasting, but more complex architectures do not significantly enhance the outcomes. Moreover, considering the spatiotemporal aspects results in an improvement in the prediction of more than fifty percent. In addition, we investigate the vectorization of time, also known as Time2Vec, as a way of embedding to make it possible for a selected algorithm to recognize periodic characteristics in time series, and we show that the outcome is improved by fifteen percent.

Short-Term EV Charging Demand Forecast with Feedforward Artificial Neural Network

The global increase in greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles has brought about the manufacture and usage of large quantities of electric vehicles (EVs). However, to ensure proper integration of EVs into the grid, there is a need to forecast the charging demand of EVs accurately. This paper presents a short-term electric vehicle charging demand forecast using a feedforward artificial neural network optimized with a modified local leader phase spider monkey optimization (MLLP-SMO) algorithm, a proposed variant of spider monkey optimization. A proportionate fitness selection is employed to improve the update process of the local leader phase of the spider monkey optimization. The proposed algorithm trains a feedforward neural network to forecast electric vehicle charging demand. The effectiveness of the proposed forecasting model was tested and validated with electric vehicle public charging data from the United Kingdom Power Networks Low Carbon London Project. The model's performance was compared to a feedforward neural network trained with particle swarm optimization, genetic algorithm, classical spider monkey optimization, and two conventional forecasting models, multi-linear regression and Monte Carlo simulation. The performance of the proposed forecasting model was assessed using the mean absolute percentage error of forecast and forecasting accuracy. The model produced a forecast accuracy and mean absolute percentage error of 99.88% and 3.384%, respectively. The results show that MLLP-SMO as a trainer predicted better than the other forecasting models and met industry standard forecast accuracy.

Research On The Daily Electricity Forecast Model Based On LightGBM

Short-term electricity demand forecast is of great significance for guiding the Power Grid Company production operation, but the existing forecast mainly concentrated on load forecast, and most of them only use meteorological and date factors as input features, ignoring the economic factors as a basis to support the growth of electricity, also doesn’t take into account the influence of recent significant events. To improve the accuracy and rationality of short-term electricity demand forecast, based on the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model, in addition to the common meteorological and date factors, all kinds of economic and significant events are introduced into the model to forecast the daily electricity in this paper. The results show that economic and significant events provide useful information, making our model more accurate than previous short-term electricity demand forecasts. Moreover, due to the adoption of machine learning algorithms, our model is more stable and accurate than traditional measurement models with the same factors.

Hybrid deep learning models for short-term demand forecasting of online car-hailing considering multiple factors

ABSTRACT As an emerging force in the travel industry, online car-hailing (OCH) has been relying on digital and intelligent technologies for business innovation since its birth. Three hybrid deep learning models combining multi-factor external and internal features are proposed to predict the OCH demand. Convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) are selected to extract features. Attention mechanisms are used to combine the global parts so that the importance of feature sequences at different times can be distinguished. The effectiveness of the proposed models considering all factors is proved by comparative experiments. Then, ablation experiments are performed to analyze the effects of attention module, external and internal factors. The results showed that the hybrid models performed better than the existing models under different factors. Various factors had different impacts on the departure and arrival flows and the hybrid models.

Short-Term Demand Forecasting of Urban Online Car-Hailing Based on the K-Nearest Neighbor Model

Accurately forecasting the demand of urban online car-hailing is of great significance to improving operation efficiency, reducing traffic congestion and energy consumption. This paper takes 265-day order data from the Hefei urban online car-hailing platform from 2019 to 2021 as an example, and divides each day into 48 time units (30 min per unit) to form a data set. Taking the minimum average absolute error as the optimization objective, the historical data sets are classified, and the values of the state vector T and the parameter K of the K-nearest neighbor model are optimized, which solves the problem of prediction error caused by fixed values of T or K in traditional model. The conclusion shows that the forecasting accuracy of the K-nearest neighbor model can reach 93.62%, which is much higher than the exponential smoothing model (81.65%), KNN1 model (84.02%) and is similar to LSTM model (91.04%), meaning that it can adapt to the urban online car-hailing system and be valuable in terms of its potential application.

Electricity demand forecasting and risk management using Gaussian process model with error propagation

AbstractElectricity demand forecasting plays a vital role in power system planning, operation, transmission design, and financial risk management. In this study, we employ a Gaussian Process model to estimate the probability distributions of short‐term electricity demand. To account for input uncertainty in multi‐period ahead forecast, we adopt an error propagation procedure that improves upon the naive recursive forecasting. This method is shown to perform well in terms of multi‐step ahead point and probabilistic forecasts. We illustrate the usefulness of the suggested estimator with an application to short term demand forecasting of Texas electricity market.

LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models for Long-Term Tourism Demand Forecasting

Tourism demand forecasting comprises an important task within the overall tourism demand management process since it enables informed decision making that may increase revenue for hotels. In recent years, the extensive availability of big data in tourism allowed for the development of novel approaches based on the use of deep learning techniques. However, most of the proposed approaches focus on short-term tourism demand forecasting, which is just one part of the tourism demand forecasting problem. Another important part is that most of the proposed models do not integrate exogenous data that could potentially achieve better results in terms of forecasting accuracy. Driven from the aforementioned problems, this paper introduces a deep learning-based approach for long-term tourism demand forecasting. In particular, the proposed forecasting models are based on the long short-term memory network (LSTM), which is capable of incorporating data from exogenous variables. Two different models were implemented, one using only historical hotel booking data and another one, which combines the previous data in conjunction with weather data. The aim of the proposed models is to facilitate the management of a hotel unit, by leveraging their ability to both integrate exogenous data and generate long-term predictions. The proposed models were evaluated on real data from three hotels in Greece. The evaluation results demonstrate the superior forecasting performance of the proposed models after comparison with well-known state-of-the-art approaches for all three hotels. By performing additional benchmarks of forecasting models with and without weather-related parameters, we conclude that the exogenous variables have a noticeable influence on the forecasting accuracy of deep learning models.

A Review of Auto-Regressive Methods Applications to Short-Term Demand Forecasting in Power Systems

The paper conducts a literature review of applications of autoregressive methods to short-term forecasting of power demand. This need is dictated by the advancement of modern forecasting methods and their achievement in good forecasting efficiency in particular. The annual effectiveness of forecasting power demand for the Polish National Power Grid for the next day is approx. 1%; therefore, the main objective of the review is to verify whether it is possible to improve efficiency while maintaining the minimum financial outlays and time-consuming efforts. The methods that fulfil these conditions are autoregressive methods; therefore, the paper focuses on autoregressive methods, which are less time-consuming and, as a result, cheaper in development and applications. The prepared review ranks the forecasting models in terms of the forecasting effectiveness achieved in the literature on the subject, which enables the selection of models that may improve the currently achieved effectiveness of the transmission system operator. Due to the applied approach, a transparent set of forecasting methods and models was obtained, in addition to knowledge about their potential in the context of the needs for short-term forecasting of electricity demand in the national power system. The articles in which the MAPE error was used to assess the quality of short-term forecasts were analyzed. The investigation included 47 articles, several dozen forecasting methods, and 264 forecasting models. The articles date from 1997 and, apart from the autoregressive methods, also include the methods and models that use explanatory variables (non-autoregressive ones). The input data used come from the period 1998–2014. The analysis included 25 power systems located on four continents (Asia, Europe, North America, and Australia) that were published by 44 different research teams. The results of the review show that in the autoregressive methods applied to forecasting short-term power demand, there is a potential to improve forecasting effectiveness in power systems. The most promising prognostic models using the autoregressive approach, based on the review, include Fuzzy Logic, Artificial Neural Networks, Wavelet Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Neurofuse Inference Systems, Genetic Algorithms, Fuzzy Regression, and Data Envelope Analysis. These methods make it possible to achieve the efficiency of short-term forecasting of electricity demand with hourly resolution at the level below 1%, which confirms the assumption made by the authors about the potential of autoregressive methods. Other forecasting models, the effectiveness of which is high, may also prove useful in forecasting by electricity system operators. The paper also discusses the classical methods of Artificial Intelligence, Data Mining, Big Data, and the state of research in short-term power demand forecasting in power systems using autoregressive and non-autoregressive methods and models.