Short-run Changes Research Articles

Impact of Energy Consumption from Renewable Energy Sources on Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria

This study examines the impact of renewable energy consumption and electricity tariff on the economy of Nigeria. The study considers the casual relationship and vector decomposition between various renewable energy sources (solar, hydro and biomass), electricity price and Gross domestic product (GDP) using an unrestricted vector error correction model (VECM). In addition, other robust econometric techniques were applied to the time series of GDP, electricity price and energy consumption from renewable energy sources from 1980 to 2021. The findings indicated a 1% increase in biomass consumption causes increase in GDP by 0.14% in the long-run. Mixed result in the short-run with the difference in the log value of the current lag of solar and bio electricity consumption having positive impact on GDP. The coefficient of the Error Correction Model (ECM) was negative (-0.49) and statistically significant indicating that short-run change from the long-run equilibrium is corrected by 49% annually. Unidirectional causality from GDP to solar electricity consumption. Solar, hydro, biomass and electricity price explain 1.4%, 0.4% 2.2% & 12% respectively of fluctuations in GDP in the long-run. The study results demonstrates that regulations need to be put in place to control the adverse effect of consuming biomass on the environment which could cause mixed impact on gross domestic product in the short run whereas, policies to foster development of solar projects could impact positively on GDP and alleviate the electricity supply deficiency in Nigeria.

Childhood circumstances, social mobility and the obesity transition: Evidence from South Africa

The distribution of obesity tends to shift from rich to poor individuals as countries develop, in a process of shifting sociodemographic patterns of obesity that has been called the ‘obesity transition’. This change tends to happen with economic development, but little is known about the specific mechanisms that drive the change. We propose that improvements in childhood circumstances with economic development may be one of the drivers of the obesity transition. We explore whether the social gradient in body weight differs by childhood socioeconomic status (SES), proxied by the respondent’s mother having Grade 12, using South Africa’s nationally representative panel National Income Dynamics Study. In support of our hypothesis, we find that the social gradient in body weight is less positive for adults who had a high childhood SES, and already appears to have reversed among high-SES women who also had a high childhood SES. Upward social mobility over an individual’s life course or across a single generation is associated with higher body weight compared to a stable high SES. But a high SES sustained in childhood and adulthood – or across more than one generation – may decrease adult obesity risk, and result in a reversal of the social gradient in body weight. Random effects within-between models show that the social gradient in body weight and its interaction with childhood SES are driven more by differences in income between individuals than by short-run changes in income within individuals, again suggesting that the obesity transition is driven by long-run changes rather than by very short-run changes. Our results are broadly robust to using several alternative measures of body weight, childhood SES and adult SES. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that widespread improvements in childhood circumstances and nutrition with economic development may contribute to the shift to later stages of the obesity transition.

IMPACT OF FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE ON THE OUTPUT, EXPORT AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN BEEF INDUSTRY

The purpose of the study is to analyse the impact of floating exchange rate through the long-run and short-run changes or dynamic relations amongst total production, Volume of exports and total employment from 1995 to 2020, using a time-series analysis. The study adopts the secondary time series data for total production, volume of exports and total employment. Descriptive statistics was adopted to describe the features of the data quantitatively and to profile the beef industry. Unit root test was performed for the integration of variables where data exabits mixture of level and first integration. Bound test shows that variables are somehow associated in the long run due to their short run cointegration. The results from the cointegration test and the ARDL-ECM estimation suggest a long-run effect among total production, volume of exports and total employment. The adjustment term or coefficient of ECT of dependent variables suggests that the past year’s errors are corrected for the current year at a convergence speed of 0.93, 1.72 and 1.06 percentage points, respectively. Furthermore, Causal relation or effect results for beef industry shows that single directional causality effect exists between, or which runs from volume of exports total production output, exchange rate to volume of exports and lastly, causal effect run from volume of exports to total employment. The overall conclusion is that floating exchange rate impact on total production, volume of exports and total employment in the beef industry of the South African red meat industry.

Health care expenditure and income in Canada: Evidence from panel data.

This paper investigates the long-run relationship between health care expenditures (HCE) and income using Canadian provincial data spanning a period of 40years from 1981 to 2020. We study the non-stationary and cointegration properties of HCE and income and estimate the long-run income elasticities of HCE. Using heterogeneous panel models that incorporate cross-section dependence via unobserved common correlated factors to capture global shocks, we estimate long-run income elasticities that lie in the 0.11-0.16 range. Our results indicate that health care is a necessity good for Canada. These elasticity estimates are much smaller than those estimated in other studies for Canada. We find that HCE and income in Canada are cointegrated and that short-run changes in federal transfers significantly and positively affect HCE.

Novel evidence on the asymmetric causality between the Chinese stock and real estate markets: evidence from city-level data

Our study re-examines the asymmetric causality between the Chinese stock and real estate markets in 70 cities. Prior research using symmetry hypotheses, has not yet linked these two markets or paid attention to their heterogeneity. We uniquely employed the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model, which permits the exploration of bidirectional asymmetric causality. Decreases and increases in stock prices caused short-run changes to real estate prices in 18 of the cities studied; this short-run effect was ultimately carried on in Guangzhou and in three cities. Even after switching the study variables, similar results were obtained. Our findings show that real estate policymakers in specific cities need to take into consideration the asymmetric performance of real estate prices as caused by the asymmetry within stock prices. If government stabilises the real estate market, it can in turn facilitate stock-market stability.

Effects of Energy Pricing on the Mining Sector Performance in South Africa: An Econometric Approach

Mining plays a very substantial role in the economy of South Africa. This sector remains to be amongst the greatest consumers of energy in the country, especially electricity. It is against these background that the main objective of this study is to determine the effects of energy pricing on the mining sector performance in South Africa from 1990 to 2019. Johansen and ADRL procedures were used to determine the effects of energy pricing on the mining sector performance in South Africa. The results of the Error correction model (ECM) under Johansen cointegration technique are negative as expected but they are not statistically significant. The study error term is -0.122975, which meant that cointegration relationship is established. The results show that capital stock and labour play an important role in balancing mining productivity, while energy prices, Gross Domestic Product and import prices, on the other hand, play a lesser role in balancing mining productivity. The results of the Error correction model (ECM) under ARDL designate the short-run coefficient for D (LNCT) and D (GDP2) are statistically significant at 1% level and the coefficient of error correction term ecm (-1) valued at -1.037410 is negative and highly significant signifying that in the short-run changes in Capital stock and Gross Domestic Product are associated with mining production. The long-run relationship is illustrated by a negative sign on the coefficient of the ECT. Policy implication of a long-run optimistic relationship between electricity pricing and Mining Sector productivity is that mines should invest on producing their own energy, in that way they will be responsible for reducing their costs and that could results in mines increasing their productive capacity in the long-term.

Dynamic risks from climate policy uncertainty: A case study for the natural gas market

A series of policies proposed to deal with climate change has affected the development of the natural gas market. This study aims to investigate whether climate policy uncertainty (CPU) affects natural gas from a dynamic perspective. First, we employ the time-varying Granger causality test to test the impact of CPU on natural gas over time. The results show that events related to climate policy can lead to changes in this impact. Then, we detect the long-, mid-, and short-run changes in this impact by using the frequency-domain Granger causality test. We find that the CPU only holds a significant long-run effect on natural gas. However, considering that raised CPU and declined CPU may have different effects on natural gas, we further apply the asymmetric frequency-domain test, and the results verify that this unidirectional risk transmission has asymmetry. Particularly, we find that increased CPU may lead to a decline in natural gas in the medium run, and this impact lasts until the end of the sample. Thus, market participants invested in natural gas markets should pay attention to the events related to climate policies and the long-run impact of CPU, especially of increased CPU shocks.

Is Remote Sensing Data Useful for Studying the Association between Pandemic-Related Changes in Economic Activity and Intimate Partner Violence?

Using a survey conducted in Peru, we explore the use of remote sensing data in predicting income and intimate partner violence (IPV). We find that remote sensing measures correctly predict short-run changes in income during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the remote sensing data fail to explain any corresponding change in IPV. In contrast, using individualized information from our survey, we find that negative economic shocks result in higher levels of IPV. We conclude that remote sensing data may be useful when studying changes in income during the pandemic, but may be inappropriate when studying behavioral responses like IPV.

COMPARATIVE STUDY OF DETERMINANTS OF THE MALAYSIAN HOUSEHOLD NONPERFORMING LOANS: EVIDENCE FROM NARDL

This study compares the sensitivity of each household nonperforming loans (NPLs) category in Malaysia, allowing asymmetry across different household credit types, credit cards, personal uses, purchase of residential properties and purchase of transport vehicles. Differences in the impact of household debt on the Malaysian household NPLs are found evident. In the sample period from 2006 to 2018, the findings suggest an asymmetric impact of credit card debts on the household NPLs. This linkage is explained by only short-run negative changes in credit card outstanding loans. Besides that, the residential property loans behave asymmetrically in the long and short run, with higher impact sources from the negative changes. In a disaggregated NPL analysis focusing on a different type of loan portfolio, the asymmetry further enhances policy and regulation-making in managing household credit risk.

The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices on Unemployment in the MENA Region

AbstractWe examine the effects of oil prices on unemployment rates in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the period of 1991–2017. Using the panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (panel NARDL) model, the results show that in the long run, positive changes of oil prices exert a positive (increasing) impact on the unemployment rate. However, negative changes in oil prices have a significant decreasing effect on the unemployment rate in the MENA region. We also find that the short run changes in oil prices do not show a significant effect on unemployment rates. Our findings are robust to an alternative measure of oil rents per capita and in line with predictions of the resource curse hypothesis. Countries with higher dependency on natural resource rents experience, on average, a slower long run economic growth rate (and thus higher unemployment rates), compared with countries with lower dependency.

Does an Exchange-Traded Fund Converge to its Benchmark in the Long Run? Evidence from Ishares MSCI in Asia-Pacific Countries

This study examines the linkages between exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and their benchmark indices from 2013 to 2019 using iShares MSCI of ten Asia-Pacific countries. Our results show, first, that there is a long-run causality running from the benchmark index to ETFs. These findings imply that ETFs may replicate the performance of the benchmark index over the long run. Second, there is a unidirectional causal relationship from ETFs to the benchmark index in the short run, which indicates that benchmark index prices respond to the short-run changes in the ETF prices when new information is available. Third, there is a significant tracking error between ETFs and the benchmark index. This finding justifies the existence of stock selection and market timing abilities among the ETF managers. Lastly, fund managers add value to the ETFs and generate better than the market returns. This paper provides new evidence to support this new stylized fact of ETFs.

Does financial development influence renewable energy consumption to achieve carbon neutrality in the USA?

In order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, as defined in the Paris climate agreement, the United States, the second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, must intensify its use of zero-carbon sources such as renewable energy. In this paper, we use the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to investigate the influence of financial development on renewable energy consumption in the U.S. from 1975Q1 to 2019Q4. More precisely, three measures of financial development are considered: the overall financial development, bank-based financial development, and stock-based financial development indices. The model is augmented to control for the effects of real oil prices, real GDP, and trade openness. The empirical results show evidence of a long-run asymmetric effect of overall and stock-based financial development measures. Positive and negative changes in financial development measures dictate renewable energy consumption. In the short run, only negative changes of overall and stock-based financial development measures significantly impact renewable energy consumption. The latter impact is contemporaneously positive and negative at the one-lagged period. Renewable energy consumption does not react to a short-run change in bank-based financial development. Our empirical findings possess important policy implications.

Imposing versus Enacting Commitments for the Long‐Term Energy Transition: Perspectives from the Firm

Imposing versus Enacting Commitments for the Long‐Term Energy Transition: Perspectives from the Firm

People adapt more slowly to social income changes than to temporal income changes.

People hedonically adapt to most changes, but they adapt more slowly to some changes than to others. This research examines hedonic adaptation to income changes, and asks whether people adapt more slowly to social or temporal income changes. Four experiments, manipulating the actual pay rate of online workers, find that people adapt more slowly to social income changes (e.g., a decrease in others' income but not in one's own income) than to temporal income changes (e.g., an increase in everyone's income). This pattern holds for both negative changes (Experiment 1) and positive changes (Experiments 2, 3, and 4) and can be explained by a differential-consideration account (Experiment 3). These results suggest that in the short run, both temporal and social changes influence one's hedonic experience, but in the long run, what influences one's hedonic experiences is how much one earns relative to how much others earn, and not how much one earns now relative to how much one earned in the past. This research enriches the existing literature on hedonic adaptation, and on social versus temporal changes, and yields practical implications for the impact of income changes on subjective well-being over time. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

ON THE ANALYSIS OF FOOD AND OIL MARKETS IN NIGERIA: WHAT PRICES TELL US FROM ASYMMETRIC AND PARTIAL STRUCTURAL CHANGE MODELING?

The relationship between energy price and food price has been dominated by co-movement debate among empirical submissions. However, these are widely criticized based on economic structure and uncertain economic events. In this paper, using data spanning from January 2000 to September 2019, we applied asymmetric and partial structural change models to examine the impact of oil price on food prices in Nigeria. Results from the asymmetric model showed that positive margins in crude oil price reduce the price of food, while negative margins co-move with food price in the long-run. The story is different in the short-run, where both positive and negative changes in oil price exert positive effects on food price. Thus, margins in the oil price are a source of incentives/disincentives to stabilize food price through supply channels in Nigeria. However, results of the partial structural change regression suggest that, in isolation, oil price co-moves with food price in regimes 1 and 4 (slump in oil price), while the impact is negative during regimes 2 and 3 (stable oil price). Therefore, the paper argues that the relationship between food price and oil price depends on timely events and the structure of the economy in question, and accounting for these events (regimes) improves timely and appropriate policies on food security and price stability.

Bubbling Away: Forecasting Real Estate Prices, Rents, and Bubbles in a Transition Economy

Real housing prices have both surged and swooned in formerly socialist countries. We use 2000–2017 aggregate housing sales and rental price data from Kazakhstan to explore price movements during boom and stagnation eras, investigating the rent–price ratio’s (RPR) capacity to predict housing returns and rent growth for an emerging post-Soviet economy. RPR predicts returns better during periods of price increases than declines, and its importance in predicting the bubble component diminishes with time. Short-run RPR changes are consistent with rational bubble behavior during the period of secular upswing but different predictive variables matter during price increases and declines.

When is money smart? Mutual fund flows and disposable income

This study shows that the representative mutual fund investor's ability increases with the time-varying constraints on household disposable income at the aggregate level. I use changes in retail energy prices to proxy for short-run changes in the disposable income of potential investors. Flows to actively-managed U.S. equity funds decrease with the constraints on disposable income. The representative investor shows fund selection and timing ability in periods when the constraints on disposable income sharply increase, but no discernable ability otherwise. The results are consistent with money being smarter when the constraints on household disposable income in the economy are more binding.

Modelling the employment, income and price elasticities of outbound tourism demand in OECD countries

This study examines how employment affects demand for tourism in the short and long run, controlling for the effects of income and relative prices within a panel of 32 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries throughout the 1995–2016 period. To this end, we employ second-generation panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests and panel data estimation techniques. Panel cointegration tests uncovered a long-run relationship between international tourism expenditure per adult, gross domestic product per adult, effective exchange rates adjusted relative prices and employment to adult population ratio. A particular implication of the result would be that the quality of employment by way of remuneration which is sufficient enough to sustain outbound tourism expenditure does not move in synchrony with workforce expansion. The failure of employment to be a significant determinant of long-run outbound tourism demand may have to do with economic and demographic factors in OECD countries as well as employment business cycles. Diminishing returns to employment, a general decline in the labour income share, a rising inequality of wage distribution among the working population due to relative adjustments in factor intensities as well as an aging population may have played contributory roles to this phenomenon. Therefore, tourism stakeholders should take note of median wage changes of possible departure countries in relation to destination costs when developing marketing frameworks for tourist locations. Moreover, reduction in unemployment rates is only indicative of short-run changes, implying that a significant impact on average tourism demand should not be expected unless average income also rises.

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE VALUE OF PMI AND MANUFACTURING SECTOR GROWTH IN PREDICTING OVERALL ECONOMIC OUTPUT (GDP) IN SOUTH AFRICA

Macroeconomic indexes are useful tools in forecasting long and short-run changes in the economy. The purpose of this study is to assess the usefulness of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and changes in the manufacturing sector as predictors of economic output. This study is quantitative in nature and employed an ARDL econometric model, vector error correction (VEC) and Granger causality approaches to determine the short and long-run relationships amongst the variables. The ARDL method was used as the variables had a mixture of stationarity at levels I(0) and first difference I(1). The model used economic output measured as GDP, as the dependent variable, while PMI, output in the manufacturing sector and CPI (used as the control variable) were the independent variables. Quarterly data sets were obtained from Statistics South Africa and the Bureau of Economic Research (BER) for the period 2000 to 2017. Findings of the ARDL estimation revealed that the variables cointegrate in the long run and changes in manufacturing output had the highest impact on long-run economic growth of the three variables. In the short run, all independent variables had a significant impact on economic growth. The main findings from the Granger causality tests indicate that bi-directional causality exists between both PMI and GDP as well as between PMI and manufacturing output. Additionally, bi-directional causality was found between GDP and manufacturing, while CPI just causes manufacturing changes. The implications of the research is the confirmation of the importance of PMI, CPI and output of the manufacturing sector as indicators for changes in overall economic activity on a macro level.

Public opinion on Reasons for Emigration

This paper centers around a conceivable impact of displacement on human capital development. Emigration on a higher comes back to expertise nation gives an impetus to put resources into human capital. The level of human capital arrangement in the source nation can accordingly be emphatically corresponded with the likelihood of displacement. Unexpectedly a flood in emigration can lead the source nation out of being worked on snare. The ramifications of the model for the combination debate are likewise discussed.Preferred resettlement goals among young people reflect pictures and generalizations of different nations that persistently develop in a huge number of neighborhood and worldwide talks and from solid encounters with other countries.The results bolster the model firmly in many regards. Both wage rates and business rates in the sending and in the accepting nations affected vacillations in migration. The short-run changes were driven to a great extent by varieties in work rates while the long-run level of migration was resolved generally by the relative wage. Convenient sampling method is used in this study to collect the sample.1860 samples are recorded .The independent variables used are gender,educational qualifications,monthly income. The dependent variables prefer setting in abroad ,preference of aboard, reason for emigration.The statistics used are independent sample t,chi-square,Anova.The objective is to understand the reasons for emigration It is concluded that emigration is most major things in the world.The emigration is mainly due to higher income and good governance country