Shoreline Retreat Research Articles

The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards

Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), to projected SLR and storm hazards over the twenty-first century. We estimate that with 0.5 m of SLR, 47% of current subaerial barrier island area would be flooded daily, and the 1-year return period storm would flood 74%. For 20-year return period storms, over 85% is projected to be flooded for any SLR. The modelled groundwater table is already shallow (< 2 m deep), and while projected to shoal to the land surface with SLR, marine flooding is projected to overtake areas with emergent groundwater. Projected shoreline retreat reaches an average of 178 m with 1 m of SLR and no interventions, which is over 60% of the current island width at narrower locations. Compounding these hazards is subsidence, with one-third of the study area currently lowering at > 2 mm/yr. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of managing natural barrier systems such as those managed by federal park systems tasked with maintaining natural ecosystems and protecting cultural resources.

Research on comprehensive assessment of coastal erosion intensity based on multi index method

The intensity of coastal erosion is a measure of the strength of erosion processes affecting coastal areas. Traditionally, assessments of coastal erosion intensity have relied on singular indices, such as the rate of shoreline retreat or erosion, often prioritizing higher rates over lower ones. This approach, however, lacks comprehensive consideration and scientific rigor. In this study, we adopt a more holistic approach by examining the Qionghai-Wanning coast on the eastern side of Hainan Island. We selected four indices that reflect local conditions and influence coastal erosion strength: Annual rate of shoreline change (T1), Beach annual down-cutting rate (T2), Beach slope (T3), Average particle size of the beach (T4). These indices were used to comprehensively evaluate the erosion intensity of the Qionghai-Wanning coast. The evaluation results categorized the study area into six grades: serious erosion (3.45%), strong erosion (6.90%), erosion (20.69%), micro erosion (44.38%), stabilization (20.69%), and accretion (3.45%). The findings indicate that, under the broader environmental trends of global warming and rising sea levels, most sandy coasts exhibit micro-erosion intensity. Areas experiencing strong and serious erosion are predominantly influenced by human activities, such as those occurring in promenade bays, artificial islands, and harbors. To further understand the relationship between these factors and erosion intensity, we employed the Spearman correlation coefficient method. The analysis revealed that the T1 and the T2 are the primary factors influencing coastal erosion intensity, with the T4 serving as a secondary factor. These factors collectively impact the force and energy absorption of the coast through wave and tidal actions, ultimately determining the intensity of coastal erosion. The multi-index assessment method for coastal erosion intensity demonstrated an accuracy of 82.75%, providing a scientific basis for the management, protection, and restoration of coastal areas.

The impact of a storm on the microtidal flat in the Yellow River Delta

Strong hydrodynamic forces generated by storms are key in shaping coastal tidal flats. Most tidal flats achieve equilibrium by adapting to hydrodynamic conditions and sediment inputs. However, high-energy wave activity during storms disrupts this equilibrium, causing rapid and significant changes, particularly in tidal flats, especially in microtidal flats, which are characterized by low tidal ranges. In this study, we conducted an 11-d field campaign on a microtidal flat in the Yellow River Delta (YRD), capturing data during both stormy and calm weather conditions. We measured tidal currents, wave activity, suspended sediment concentrations and sediment grain sizes. The results demonstrated that the tidal flat maintained equilibrium under calm conditions, with minimal fluctuations in bed level (within ±2 mm). Contrastingly, severe erosion and sediment removal during the storm significantly altered the equilibrium of the area. The storm-induced high shear stresses, ranging from 1.02 to 1.48 , along with alongshore sediment transport, resulted in an elevation change of -10 mm. Furthermore, the subsequent bed level recovery was minimal and insufficient to offset the erosion. Compared to that of the mesotidal and macrotidal flats, post-storm recovery on microtidal flats was limited due to shorter inundation periods and weaker hydrodynamic forces. Therefore, frequent storms may lead to continuous shoreline retreat on microtidal coasts. Conclusively, the present findings underscore the significant impact of storm-induced erosion on the evolutionary processes of microtidal flats and suggest that greater attention should be given to protecting these areas during storms in the Yellow River Delta. The insights can guide the development of more effective coastal protection strategies, highlighting the need for enhanced measures to mitigate erosion and promote resilience in microtidal regions.

Study into the reshaping process of large reservoir banks using remote sensing

Background. During the first 10—20 years after the creation of large reservoirs, the process of processing of coastal territories is activated, which leads to the loss of land resources, has a negative impact on the existing coastal infrastructure and changes in the depth of the reservoir as a result of activation of the process of rock accumulation, destruction of coastal slopes. Shoreline retreat is 10—15 meters per year. The paper considers the process of recycling of reservoir banks on the example of the Volgograd reservoir.Aim. Development of a methodology for studying and forecasting the process of reshaping of reservoir banks using remote sensing.Materials and methods. The data of 1980—1990 on the actual magnitude of bank reprocessing of the Volgograd reservoir were collected, processed and analyzed, and the coastal territory was typified. It is proposed to use remote sensing materials to obtain the values of coastal overbanking for the period from the 1990s to the present time. Forecasting of the process of reformation of reservoir banks is carried out on the basis of application of mathematical statistics methods.Results. On the basis of solving the set tasks, a universal new methodology for studying and forecasting reservoir bank reformation was proposed. The methodology was tested on the materials of the Volgograd reservoir.Conclusion. The proposed new methodology makes it possible to obtain data on the dynamics of the Volgograd reservoir bank reformation process and to make a forecast for the next 10 years. This methodology can be used to study the process of bank reformation of large reservoirs.

Unraveling the decadal–scale coastal evolution and hazards of the Salamanca Barrier (Colombia)

This study aims to characterize the primary coastal hazards operating at both medium-term and episodic scales along the Salamanca barrier in the Caribbean coast of Colombia. On a medium-term (decadal) scale, we analyzed satellite images spanning the past 40 years to characterize shoreline evolution, the associated coastal sediment budget and the responsible sediment transport pattern. At this scale, the barrier has experienced intense shoreline retreat, with erosion rates gradually decreasing over time. For the last analyzed period, 2009–2019, maximum erosion rates have exceeded −20 m/yr. This erosion is primarily driven by a net longshore sediment transport pattern directed towards the west, induced by a wave climate concentrated in a narrow direction arc from the NE. Peak transport rates, reaching an order of magnitude of 106 m3/yr, have been estimated for the westernmost (more exposed) part of the barrier. At an episodic scale, we estimated hazards by evaluating storm-induced erosion and flooding potential. The eastern zone of the barrier showed greater susceptibility to overwash, while potential erosion was only relevant in the western and central sectors. Notably, the most impactful events were associated with waves from directions of 30 and 40°. The cumulative contribution of hazards operating at both scales contribute to various challenges affecting infrastructures, ecosystems, and communities along the Salamanca barrier.

Coastal processes and dune stability: Insights from wave transmission and runup modeling

Dunes not only serve as natural landscapes but also act as crucial natural barriers protecting coastlines from storm surges. However, the stability of coastlines and dunes is further affected by climate change-induced sea level rise and increased storm activity. An effective evaluation of dune stability necessitates the collection of parameters such as wave height, changes in dune crest elevation, and dune erosion rates. This research employs wave flumes and high-speed camera technology in laboratory settings to observe and simulate coastal dynamics under overwash and collision regimes. The study investigates wave propagation under both regimes using the XBeach model. In the overwash regime, the model slightly overestimates the values of infragravity waves, whereas its accuracy improved under the collision regime. Moreover, in the overwash regime, higher wave skewness results in more sediment transport to the shore, exhibiting a linear relationship between sediment erosion volume and shoreline retreat distance. Through comparison with time series wave runup data obtained by cameras and traditional predictive formulas, the study validates the applicability of the formula proposed by Stockdon as a predictive tool for wave runup in this experiment. To evaluate dune stability, the study introduces the dimensionless overwash threshold parameter Cs, which is based on wave runup and dune crest elevation, to distinguish between dunes in a collision regime or an overwash regime. These findings help identify dune stability patterns, aiding in early detection of coastal erosion and assisting authorities in ecosystem management.

Nearshore Flow Dynamics Over Shore‐Oblique Bathymetric Features During Storm Wave Conditions

AbstractShore‐oblique bathymetric features occur around the world and have been statistically correlated with enhanced shoreline retreat on sandy beaches. However, the physical mechanisms that explain a causal relationship are not well understood. In this study, radar remote sensing observations and results from a phase‐resolved numerical model explore how complex morphology alters nearshore hydrodynamics. Observations at selected times during high‐energy storm events as well as a suite of idealized simulations indicate that shore‐oblique features induce strong spatial variations in the water surface elevation, wave breaking patterns, and mean current pathways. Re‐emergent offshore flows and longshore current accelerations occur near the shoreward apex of the oblique nearshore features. The results suggest that complex bathymetric morphology exerts a powerful control on nearshore hydrodynamics and increases the potential for enhanced cross‐shore and alongshore sediment transport.

GIS-BASED ESTIMATION OF SHORELINE CHANGE AT THE OLIE PIER HARBOR HERITAGE SITE, MANGGAR, EAST BELITUNG, INDONESIA

The coastal area is a dynamic region influenced by continuous interactions between land and the sea. Changes in coastal compositions are closely related to shoreline instability. This study analyzes coastline changes at the Olie Pier Heritage Site, Manggar, East Belitung, Indonesia, using statistical-based techniques EPR (End Point Rate) and NSM (Net Shoreline Movement) 2015 to 2023. The DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) was employed to calculate the shoreline alterations in every transect with a distance of about 100 m. The study area is generally predominated by a moderate abrasion. The EPR and NSM values indicate a potential for future shoreline changes, considering the present status and future estimations of oceanographic parameters (currents, wind, waves, tides). The highest erosion is identified in the Lalang Village with a shoreline retreat (NSM) of -65.38 m and a retreat rate (EPR) of 8.78 m/year. On the other hand, the highest accretion is observed in the Baru Village with a NSM of -56.68 m and EPR of 7.61 m/year. The implications of these shoreline changes on the heritage site and the coastal environment contribute to the management of coastal areas amidst global environmental challenges. This study provides valuable insights into conservation and sustainable development efforts in the coastal region of East Belitung.

On the Bruun Rule suitability for modelling shoreline change

Modelling and understanding shoreline response to sea-level rise over decadal to centennial timescales is crucial for managing sandy coasts. Globally, the Bruun Rule is one of the most common shoreline model applied to facilitate this. However, there are several limitations to the Bruun Rule, which can compromise coastal management decisions. Here, we provide a novel assessment of the suitability of the Bruun Rule for application in sandy coasts by applying it to hindcast and project shoreline change in three morphologically different sandy beaches over yearly and decadal timescales. We also compare the Bruun Rule predictions against associated observations, published predictions from a hybrid shoreline model, and historical shoreline changes. Results show that the Bruun Rule fails to accurately hindcast and provide realistic projections of future shoreline change in sandy coasts. We attribute this to the Bruun Rule's assumption of linearity between shoreline retreat and relative sea-level rise and its inability to account for nearshore circulation. We, therefore, recommend limiting the use of the Bruun Rule for informing policy and the management of sandy coasts.

Detection of Shoreline Changes With Automated Water Extraction Index (AWEI) In Galur District, Kulon Progo Regency

Abstract Monitoring shoreline change is one of the efforts in the management and protection of the coastal environment. Through digital image processing as the utilization of shoreline extraction index can be used as a reference in measuring the rate of shoreline change. Galur District is one of the sub-districts in Kulon Progo Regency that experiences the highest abrasion process, the worst abrasion that has occurred in recent years is located at Trisik Beach where abrasion threatens the existence of stalls, turtle conservation sites and also coastal vegetation that grows along the beach. The purpose of this study is to determine changes in the coastline starting in 2013, 2018, and 2023 and also to analyze numerically through DSAS the rate of change in the coastline both the influence of abrasion and accretion processes in Galur District. The method used in this research is Quantitative Descriptive assisted by Landsat 8 image transformation using Automated Water Extraction Index (AWEI) and measuring the rate of shoreline change using DSAS based on EPR and NSM values. The results of this study show that Banaran Village has the highest shoreline retreat changes where in 2013 - 2018 the shoreline retreat reached 70 meters and in 2018 - 2023 the coastal retreat reached -75.7 meters, while for the rate of change in Karang Sewu Village in 2013 - 2018 the shoreline retreat reached -33.2 meters and in 2018 - 2023 showed the highest abrasion of -33.5 meters.

Shoreline retreat and beach nourishment are projected to increase in Southern California

Sandy beaches in Southern California are experiencing rising coastal erosion due to changes in precipitation patterns and urban growth. As a result, beach nourishment is necessary for mitigation. In our study, we forecast the rates of shoreline retreat and the required volumes of sand nourishment to mitigate it for the coming decades. We employ photogrammetric multi-decadal shoreline positioning and Digital Shoreline Analysis System methods to measure and predict the coastal evolution of the Gulf of Santa Catalina in Southern California. This region is hypothesized to be globally representative of other semi-arid sandy coasts facing similar hydroclimatic and anthropogenic challenges. Our findings indicate that Southern California’s shoreline retreat rates for sandy beaches will increase from the present average value of ~−1.45 to −2.12 meters per year in 2050 and to −3.18 meters per year in 2100. Consequently, the annual volume of sand required for beach nourishment could triple by 2050, increasing from the present-day amount of ~1223 to ~3669 cubic meters per year per kilometer. However, the associated cost for this nourishment will grow five times, exacerbating several coastal communities’ economic and logistical pressures. Similar trends are emerging globally, with semi-arid developing nations already grappling with coastal hazards and may struggle to manage the escalating costs of curbing beach nourishment.

Effects of major storms over a spit-tidal flat interaction system (Punta Rasa-Samborombón, Argentina)

Sandy coastal areas are very dynamic systems in which morphological changes occur over different time scales from hours to decades. However, it has been widely reported that major storms are the main responsible of the most significant changes in short to medium time scales. Major storms have been defined using a variety of environmental variables, but they are normally associated with high values of wave height, duration, return period and direction.Here, we aim to characterize types of major storms and to categorize associated morphological impacts over a complex coastal system. The study site, known as Punta Rasa, is located in the Samborombón bay in the outer part of the Río de La Plata estuary (Argentina) and corresponds to a zone of interaction between a large sandy spit and a backwash tidal flat system. Methods combine statistics of wave climate time-series, analysis of wave energy using nearshore numerical modelling (SWAN) and comparison of pre- and post-storm morphological changes by means of shoreline change detection and satellite images derived indexes (CoastSat Toolkit and NDWI index respectively).Results allowed to characterize four types of major storms impacting the study area: High-Energy Storms (HES), defined by an average storm wave below the 1 % exceedance (>2.6 m), Long-Lived Storms (LLS) represented by an exceedance of the 1 % of Du (>60 h), Storm Groups (SG) in which storm return period is <6 days and Northeastern moderate storms (NMS) defined by their eastern, onshore oriented direction. Under HES and NMS storms erosional areas are dominant over depositional, causing shoreline retreat, a growth of the end-spit and the increase on sand deposition on the back-barrier areas. Under LLS and SG storms, the morphological impact varies alongshore, with multiple erosional hotspots found along the shoreline accompanied by a general flattens of the end-spit system.

Lower Cretaceous holostratigraphy in Svalbard: the Arctic key piece of the Boreal basin puzzle

Abstract Lower Cretaceous stratigraphy of the high palaeo-latitude Arctic-Boreal Realm is generally more poorly understood than its lower-latitude Tethyan counterpart, prohibiting regional correlations and evaluation of global climate dynamics during this important high- p CO 2 period. In this paper, a holostratigraphic scheme and lithostratigraphic revision are presented for the Valanginian–lower Barremian, siliciclastic ramp succession of the Rurikfjellet Formation in Svalbard, drawn from synthesis of the latest published sedimentological, biostratigraphic, petrophysical, sequence stratigraphic, chemostratigraphic and chronostratigraphic results, supplemented by new measured sections from five localities. The offshore mudstone-dominated Wimanfjellet Member (Valanginian–lower Barremian) is retained, whereas three new members are defined according to their distinct geographical, sedimentological and stratigraphic characteristics. The Adventpynten Member (upper(?) Valanginian–lowermost upper Hauterivian) constitutes a thick, relatively localized succession of mass-transport deposits. The Kikutodden Member (Hauterivian–lower Barremian) is discarded and replaced by the northern Bohemanneset Member and southern Fotografryggen Member, representing respectively: heterogeneous prodelta to delta front deposits; and sandy offshore transition to shoreface deposits. The Rurikfjellet Formation records Valanginian–earliest late Hauterivian shoreline progradation followed by late Hauterivian–early Barremian shoreline retreat and flooding across a low-gradient ramp, which never experienced full regression into continental deposits within the extent of the present-day outcrop belt.

Tidal Flat Erosion Processes and Their Dynamic Mechanisms on the South Side of Sheyang River Estuary, Jiangsu Province

Tidal flats are accumulations of fine-grained sediment formed under the action of tides and play a very important role in coastal protection. The northern part of Jiangsu coast, as a typical example of muddy coasts found all over the world, has experienced serious erosion since the Yellow River shifted northward, and the range of erosion has been gradually extending southward, now reaching the south of the Sheyang River estuary (SYRE). In order to address coastal erosion near the SYRE through protective measures, there is an urgent need for research on the spatial and temporal variation of coastal erosion processes and their control mechanisms in the SYRE and adjacent coastal areas. For this study, the tidal flats on the south side of the SYRE were selected as the study area, and the sediment dynamics in the upper and lower intertidal flat were observed in different seasons to investigate the erosion processes and their dynamic mechanisms. The results show that the tidal current and wave action in the observed intertidal flats are stronger in winter than in summer, and these intertidal flats erode under the combined action of waves and currents. During winter, the net transport of the near-bottom suspended sediment and bedload is primarily towards the southeast, while in summer, the direction tends toward the north and northeast. The net transport fluxes are larger in the lower part of the intertidal flat than in the upper part in summer and also larger in winter than in summer within the lower intertidal flat. Furthermore, the tidal flat erosion in the study area manifests as shoreline retreat and flat surface erosion. The average shoreline retreat rate increased from 23.3 m/a during 2014–2019 to 43.5 m/a during 2019–2021, and the average erosion depth of the lower and upper parts of the intertidal flat over a tidal cycle is, respectively, 1.98 cm and 0.24 cm in winter and 1.65 cm and 0.26 cm in summer. The ratio of the wave-induced bottom shear stress to the tidal current-induced bottom shear stress is 0.40~0.46 in the lower intertidal flat and increases to 0.66~0.67 in the upper intertidal flat, indicating that the intertidal flat erosion in the study area is primarily driven by tidal currents, with significant contributions from wave action, especially in the upper intertidal flat.

Impacts of anthropogenic structures in long- and short-term shoreline evolution of Santa Marta Bay (Colombian Caribbean)

Interaction of Anthropic interventions (rigid structures) with coasts is an essential aspect for understanding their geomorphic evolution and incorporating these data into adequate coastal management. This study analyses the short and long-term behavior (1985 to 2019) of shoreline at Santa Marta Bay (Caribbean - Colombia) and their relationship with coastal protection structures. The shoreline variations were analyzed through aerial photographs and satellite images using DSAS tools. The short-term assessment showed initial intense 1985–1991 erosion, with an average retreat speed rate of − 1.6 m·y− 1. It changed gradually since 2003, due to the construction of rigid structures and beach nourishment, decreasing shoreline retreat and even a progradation rate of 0.2 m·y− 1 was observed. The 2009–2019 period, despite recording a positive average value, exhibited a high percentage of erosion profiles. Therefore, in a decadal or long-term analysis (1985–2019), despite engineering works present positive results in the short term, new interventions are required. The coastal erosion is not uniform along the shoreline, because the area is a closed bay with small sediment inputs, the variations in erosion and accretion rates change with human intervention and the installation of new structures. Therefore, quantifying the scale and rate of shoreline changes and correlating them with anthropogenic structures is an essential step in assessing shoreline vulnerability.

The Future of Developed Barrier Systems: 2. Alongshore Complexities and Emergent Climate Change Dynamics

AbstractDeveloped barrier systems (barrier islands and spits) are lowering and narrowing with sea‐level rise (SLR) such that habitation will eventually become infeasible or prohibitively expensive for most communities in its current form. Before reaching this state, choices will be made to modify the natural and built environment to reduce relatively short‐term risk. These choices will likely vary substantially even along the same developed barrier system as these landscapes are rarely uniformly managed alongshore. Building on the results from a companion paper, here we use a new modeling framework to investigate the complexities in barrier system dynamics that emerge as a function of alongshore variability in management strategies, accelerations in SLR, and changes in storm intensity and frequency. Model results suggest that when connected through alongshore sediment transport, barriers with alongshore variable management strategies—here, the construction of dunes and wide beaches to protect either roadways or communities—evolve differently than they would in the absence of alongshore connections. Shoreline stabilization by communities in one location influences neighboring areas managed solely for roadways, inducing long‐term system‐wide lags in shoreline retreat. Conversely, when barrier segments managed for roadways are allowed to overwash, this induces shoreline curvature system‐wide, thus enhancing erosion on nearby stabilized segments. Feedbacks between dunes, storms, overwash flux, and alongshore sediment transport also affect outcomes of climate adaptation measures. In the case of partial, early abandonment of roadway management, we find that system‐wide transitions to less vulnerable landscape states are possible, even under accelerated SLR and increased storminess.

Photogrammetric Investigation of Storm-Induced Erosion Process on Sandy Beach Profile in Medium-Scale Flume

In this study, laboratory experiments were conducted to investigate the influence of changes in storm wave height and water level on beach response in a medium-scale wave flume. A schematic storm was simulated (rising, apex, and waning phases). A non-intrusive photogrammetric method was used to collect high-resolution and synchronous data regarding the free surface water elevation and bed level, from which shoreline location, sandbar position, cross-shore sediment transport rates, and nonlinear wave parameters were derived. The cross-shore sediment transport was in agreement with previous laboratory measurements, including the monotonous exchange from foreshore erosion to shoaling zone accretion in most stages of the storm simulation. The surf zone was the main region supplying sediment for beach morphology modification and sandbar generation. The degree of storm erosion was not completely determined by the largest wave height and water level or the cumulative wave power of the apex phase. The largest gradients of the wave parameter sequence change occurred in the rising phase, and this was the main factor generating efficient beachface erosion. It induced an increase in sandbar size, accompanied by the cross-shore motion of maximum velocity amplitude, more violent disturbances of wave nonlinearity, and increased surf zone erosion, with these factors increasing beach instability and leading to more severe storm erosion. The large wave height and water level resulted in shoreline retreat, with a more significant swash zone erosion under a higher runup. The offshore sediment transport turned toward the onshore direction as the original large sandbar deteriorated under the decreasing wave parameter sequence in the waning phase.

Variations in biophysical characteristics of mangroves along retreating and advancing shorelines

Mangrove shoreline retreat or advance is a natural process in a mangrove delta. However, due to various natural and anthropogenic stressors, mangrove shoreline retreat is the second largest cause of mangrove loss globally. It is important to understand the scale at which mangrove shoreline changes are causing biophysical changes along the mangrove shorelines and, in turn, understand if certain biophysical characteristics can explain the changes along the shoreline. This will help identify the response of mangroves to shoreline changes. Videography and spatial mapping were used to study temporarily and permanently changing mangrove shorelines in the Sundarbans, the largest mangrove forest in the world (~10,000 km2), located in India and Bangladesh. Data was collected along a ~ 239 km shoreline at 54 sites. 36.4 % of all the studied shorelines were experiencing major retreat, 63.8 % and 27.2 % of all (major and minor) retreating areas had 1–25 % and > 25 % dead trees. The biophysical characteristics statistically (P < 0.0001) associated with retreating mangrove shorelines were – cliff-type shoreline profiles, number of dead trees, and absence of stream and grass, with shoreline profiles as the strongest predictor of shoreline retreat. Moreover, 68.7 % and 73 % of historically retreating shorelines had a cliff-type shoreline profile and Excoecaria agallocha as the dominating species, respectively. Moreover, due to the strong correlation between historical changes and current shoreline types, it was concluded that characteristics along the shoreline are partly a product of historical shoreline transitions. Thus, the present status of the shoreline can not only predict the history of the shoreline but can also give insights into the future biophysical changes in the mangrove forests.

Adaptation to sea level rise in France

Sea level rise due to climate change is an ongoing process that will continue for centuries and millennia. In response to this, France is increasingly considering sea level rise in its coastal risks and land use policies. Here, we show that despite real progress in coastal adaptation policies made so far, major challenges remain. We report progress regarding the consideration of ongoing erosion and flooding during storms, in particular owing to an evolving national regulation increasingly supporting the implementation of a nationally defined integrated coastal zones management strategy. Yet, chronic flooding at high-tides in ports and cities expected to emerge in the 2030s, as well as permanent flooding and shoreline retreat projected to take place within centuries without major protection works remain largely unaddressed to date. Major questions remain in terms of adaptation finance and other measures supporting coastal adaptation such as climate services. Finally, the topic of coastal adaptation lacks connections with the broader context of transformations needed to address climate change, biodiversity losses, and meet the sustainable development goals. The case of France exemplifies how an evolving adaptation planning, which takes decades to implement, can ultimately fall short of effectively addressing major transformational challenges and achieving climate resilient development. We argue that a clear and transparent public debate on climate change and the nature of solutions could help bridge the gap between ongoing adaptation and transformative measures in line with the challenges.

Climate change influences on the streamflow and sediment supply to the Chao Phraya River basin, Thailand

This study investigates the effects of climate change on the sediment loads of the Ping and Wang River basins and their contribution to the sediment dynamics of the lower Chao Phraya River basin in Thailand. The various climate models under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios are employed to project sediment loads in future. The findings indicate a significant increase in river flow approximately 20% in the Ping River (PR) and 35% in the Wang River (WR) by the mid-21st century and continuing into the distant future. Consequently, this is expected to result in sediment loads up to 0.33 × 106 t/y in the PR and 0.28 × 106 t/y in the WR. This escalation is particularly notable under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which assumes higher greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, the research provides insights into the potential positive implications for the Chao Phraya Delta's coastal management. Without further damming in the Ping and Wang River basins, the anticipated rise in sediment supply could aid in mitigating the adverse effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise, which have historically caused extensive shoreline retreat in the delta region, particularly around Bangkok Metropolis. The paper concludes that proactive adaptation strategies are required to manage the expected changes in the hydrological and sediment regimes to protect vulnerable coastal zones and ensure the sustainable management of the Chao Phraya River Basin in the face of climate change.