Shocks In Europe Research Articles

Which Crisis Support Fiscal Measures Worked During the Covid-19 Shock in Europe?

AbstractWe build a comprehensive database that categorizes COVID-19 fiscal measures announcements in 12 European Union countries into 7 distinct spending categories. Through our empirical analysis, we investigate the impact of these support packages on the economy. Overall, the fiscal measures played a crucial role in promoting output recovery without significant inflationary pressures. However, we observed substantial variations across different spending categories. Assistance provided to small and medium enterprises and specific sectors proved to be highly effective in stimulating the output while maintaining inflation. Direct pandemic spending and measures aimed at sustaining employment levels generated substantial output and employment multipliers and enhanced business sentiment without leading to inflationary costs. Conversely, universal help had inflationary effects and transfers to households primarily aroused consumer and business sentiment without producing significant economic impacts.

The reaction of the metal and gold resource planning in the post-COVID-19 era and Russia-Ukrainian conflict: Role of fossil fuel markets for portfolio hedging strategies

The prime objective of this article is to examine the policy-making role of metal markets, gold resources, and clean energy markets in the post-COVID-19 era and the Russia-Ukrainian military conflict. In doing so, we analyze the role of fossil fuels, clean energy, and metals markets, considering the military conflict in Ukraine in 2022. The study employs event study methodology (ESM), Total connectedness index (TCI), and network analyses. The results indicate that natural gas and clean energy prices are less affected by conflict in the aftermath of an invasion than traditional energy and metals markets. In addition, we observe an increase in the TCI in the energy markets during announcement days. The TCI of the metals market is greater than that of the energy market. According to network connectivity, the key asset class transmitters of the shock in Europe are the Geopolitical index (GPR), gold, and the clean energy stock index (ERIX). The U.S. markets are less affected by the situation in Ukraine. The average hedge suggests that the optimal hedge differs from one market to the next, with fossil fuels and renewable energy, respectively, being more hedge effective and reducing risk by an average of around 0.80 and 0.59, given their ability to function as a hedging instrument.

The macroeconomic effects of temperature shocks in Europe

The macroeconomic effects of temperature shocks in Europe

Uncovering the Past and Future Climate Drivers of Wheat Yield Shocks in Europe With Machine Learning

AbstractRecently, yield shocks due to extreme weather events and their consequences for food security have become a major concern. Although long yield time series are available in Europe, few studies have been conducted to analyze them in order to investigate the impact of adverse climate events on yield shocks under current and future climate conditions. Here we designated the lowest 10th percentile of the relative yield anomaly as yield shock and analyzed subnational wheat yield shocks across Europe during the last four decades. We applied a data‐driven attribution framework to quantify primary climate drivers of wheat yield shock probability based on machine learning and game theory, and used this framework to infer the most critical climate variables that will contribute to yield shocks in the future, under two climate change scenarios. During the period 1980–2018, our attribution analysis showed that 32% of the observed wheat yield shocks were primarily driven by water limitation, making it the leading climate driver. Projection to future climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 suggested an increased risk of yield shock and a paradigm shift from water limitation dominated yield shock to extreme warming induced shocks over 2070–2099: 46% and 54% of areas were primarily driven by extreme warming under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. A similar analysis conducted on yields simulated by an ensemble of crop models showed that models can capture the negative impact of low water supply but missed the impact of excess water. These discrepancies between observed and simulated yield data call for improvement in crop models.

Mortality in sepsis and septic shock in Germany. Results of asystematic review and meta-analysis

HintergrundVerschiedene Autoren diskutieren, ob fehlende Qualitätsinitiativen und Behandlungsstandards in Deutschland im internationalen Vergleich zu höherer Sterblichkeit bei Sepsis und septischem Schock führen könnten. Dem gegenüber steht eine international anerkannte intensivmedizinische Versorgung in Deutschland, z. B. während der COVID-19-Pandemie.Ziel der ArbeitZiel dieser Studie war es, die Sterblichkeit bei Sepsis und septischem Schock in Deutschland zu ermitteln und mit anderen Industrienationen zu vergleichen.Material und MethodenIn eine systematischen Literaturrecherche wurden alle zwischen 2009 und 2020 veröffentlichten Interventions- und Beobachtungsstudien aus den Datenbanken PubMed und Cochrane Library eingeschlossen. Die 30- und 90-Tages-Sterblichkeit bei Sepsis und septischem Schock wurde in einer Metaanalyse mittels „Random-effects“-Modells gepoolt.ErgebnisseInsgesamt wurden 134 Studien in die Meta-Analyse eingeschlossen. Die 30-Tages-Sterblichkeit bei Sepsis betrug in Deutschland 26,50 % (95 %-KI: 19,86–33,15 %), in Europa (ohne Deutschland) 23,85 % (95%-KI: 20,49–27,21 %) und in Nordamerika 19,58 % (95%-KI: 14,03–25,14 %). Die 30-Tages-Sterblichkeit bei septischem Schock betrug 30,48 % (95 %-KI: 29,30–31,67 %), 34,57 % (95 %-KI: 33,51–35,64 %) bzw. 33,69 % (95 %-KI: 31,51–35,86 %). Die 90-Tages-Sterblichkeit bei septischem Schock betrug 38,78 % (95 %-KI: 32,70–44,86 %), 41,90 % (95 %-KI: 38,88–44,91 %) beziehungsweise 34,41 % (95 %-KI: 25,66–43,16 %).DiskussionEs ergaben sich somit keine Anhaltspunkte dafür, dass die Sterblichkeit bei Sepsis/septischem Schock im internationalen Vergleich in Deutschland erhöht ist.Zusatzmaterial onlineDie Online-Version dieses Beitrags (10.1007/s00101-021-00917-8) enthält zusätzliche Informationen zu den eingeschlossenen Studien. Beitrag und Zusatzmaterial stehen Ihnen auf www.springermedizin.de zur Verfügung. Bitte geben Sie dort den Beitragstitel in die Suche ein, das Zusatzmaterial finden Sie beim Beitrag unter „Ergänzende Inhalte“.

The Research Agenda of POLITSOLID: The Ties that Bind - Experimental Analyses of Political Solidarities in Modern European Democracies

POLITSOLID (ERC funded Consolidator Grant 2021-5) investigates the micro-foundations of political solidarities in fast-changing European polities. It analyses why some ordinary citizens show a high overall willingness to shoulder costs of public redistribution to other people in a polity, while others do not; and why ordinary citizens have multiple levels of willingness to shoulder costs depending on who receives the benefit. Relevance: Having high levels of political solidarities is important for modern democracies to deal with exogenous shocks and long-term structural changes in their societies, which create pressures on the political system. Recent exogenous shocks in Europe that brought the necessity of political solidarities to light were the financial crisis (2007/8) with its extensive transnational bail-out policies across the European Union and the large refugee intake (2015/16). Relevant long-term structural changes are population ageing, rising income inequality and mass immigration. This project answers the overarching research question: What drives political solidarities in modern European democracies? Objectives • To create a novel theoretical and empirical framework that allows simultaneous modelling of multiple political solidarities and that includes the individual as well as the macro levels to enable better predictions about how people behave. • To test causal mechanisms with a range of mostly experimental methods to get a better understanding of causality where observational studies have so far dominated. • To isolate effective levers that political actors can pull to create political solidarities. Data: POLITSOLID collects and analyses new data from (1) lab experiments & online surveys, (2) a simulated artificial state ‘Novaland’ in which volunteers from Austria, Germany & Switzerland act as citizens in an online environment, with experimental treatments applied, (3) an international panel survey in six countries and (4) field experiments in collaboration with real political actors.

ECONOMIC SHOCKS OF THE PANDEMIC IMPACT: THE EUROPEAN CASE

The purpose of the paper is to identify a nature and forms of the economic shocks generated during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and to assess such shocks implications on the European countries. Such economic shocks have caused many of business companies freezing, contraction of industries and services, recession of economies. Economic shocks specifics and their influence on the European economy are considered. Shocks implications are causing economic recessions and influence on recovery prospects. Implications of economic shocks are argued in order to develop practical guidelines for economic policies. Methodology. Pandemic is a natural event of new coronavirus (COVID-19) spread, which influenced on economic and social life. Therefore a study of pandemic-generated economic shocks are based on interdisciplinary approach including inputs of methods from public health, psychology, classical economics, behavioral economics, institutional economics, systemic analysis. Selected relevant data of pandemic shocks impact of the European countries are assessed. Results. Pandemic of the COVID-19 coronavirus and governmental policies in response have generated a number of economic shocks. Such pandemic shocks are different from previously known economic shocks. Content and forces of pandemic – related shocks are a mixture of natural event and results of preventive public measures. The study has identified content and major forms of pandemic economic shocks, their implications. The major shocks of pandemic are considered: psychological, medical, economic, financial, social. Economic shocks have been defined such as: external shocks, supply and demand shocks, cross-border spillovers of pandemic economic shocks are considered as a major reason of national, regional and world economies slowdown. Specific features of shock in Europe are depending on country-specific levels of infection, economic structures and public policies. Cases of economic recession of shock-ignited countries are differentiated among the European countries and have unpredictable recovery tracks. Practical implications. Specific shocks and recession may require different policies responses. The European countries have used different combinations of monetary, fiscal and direct support instruments. The balance between national policies and international coordination is contradictory. Short-term economic policies should be focused on the economies’ recoveries. Medium-term policies should include structural and sustainability instruments, long-term policies should be focused on drivers of innovation, education, research and inclusive development.

Labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism to asymmetric shocks in Europe: evidence from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia

This paper assesses the nature and correlation of shocks in Visegrad countries and investigates the role of labour mobility in the process of adjustment to the effects of asymmetric shocks. Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models are employed to assess the nature and correlation of shocks while dynamic cointegrated panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are used to determine the role of labour mobility in the adjustment process. The dataset for the SVAR models is quarterly time series and covers the period 2000–2020. The dataset for the cointegrated panel ARDL models is annual and covers the period 2000–2019. The results show more asymmetries in external supply, domestic supply, demand and monetary shocks before the financial crisis. The findings also show that more symmetries occurred in Visegrad countries after the financial crisis in relation to external and domestic supply shocks. Asymmetries persisted with regard to demand and monetary shocks after the financial crisis. With labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism to asymmetric shocks, the paper finds that the capacity of labour mobility is very low. The percentage of net migration in the total population is less than 1% in the four countries compared to 15% in the United States. The size of the adjustment coefficients shows that it takes 3–5 years for countries to adjust to asymmetric shocks through labour mobility.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Markets

COVID-19 has had a marked impact on the global economy, resulting in uncertainty, pessimism, and adverse effects on financial markets. In light of this event, this paper aims to test whether the evolution of COVID-19 (confirmed cases and deaths) is responsible for the stock market indices in eight European countries, from December 31, 2019 to July 23, 2020. Two key research questions have been raised to determine this causal link: Does the increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths cause shockwaves in Europe's financial markets? If so, does the presence of long memories cause high levels of arbitration? The results show mostly structural breaks in March 2020. In contrast, the VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests model shows that the COVID-19 data series (confirmed cases and deaths) do not cause shocks in Europe's financial markets, which in return does not validate the first research question. The results of the exponents detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) shows significant long memories ranging between 0.61-0.73.

Mortality in sepsis and septic shock in Europe, North America and Australia between 2009 and 2019\u2014 results from a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundSepsis and septic shock remain drivers for mortality in critically ill patients. The heterogeneity of the syndrome hinders the generation of reproducible numbers on mortality risks. Consequently, mortality rates range from 15 to 56%. We aimed to update and extend the existing knowledge from meta-analyses and estimate 30- and 90-day mortality rates for sepsis and septic shock separately, stratify rates by region and study type and assess mortality rates across different sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores.MethodsWe performed a systematic review of articles published in PubMed or in the Cochrane Database, between 2009 and 2019 in English language including interventional and observational studies. A meta-analysis of pooled 28/30- and 90-day mortality rated separately for sepsis and septic shock was done using a random-effects model. Time trends were assessed via Joinpoint methodology and for the assessment of mortality rate over different SOFA scores, and linear regression was applied.ResultsFour thousand five hundred records were identified. After title/abstract screening, 783 articles were assessed in full text for eligibility. Of those, 170 studies were included. Average 30-day septic shock mortality was 34.7% (95% CI 32.6–36.9%), and 90-day septic shock mortality was 38.5% (95% CI 35.4–41.5%). Average 30-day sepsis mortality was 24.4% (95% CI 21.5–27.2%), and 90-day sepsis mortality was 32.2% (95% CI 27.0–37.5%). Estimated mortality rates from RCTs were below prospective and retrospective cohort studies. Rates varied between regions, with 30-day septic shock mortality being 33.7% (95% CI 31.5–35.9) in North America, 32.5% (95% CI 31.7–33.3) in Europe and 26.4% (95% CI 18.1–34.6) in Australia. A statistically significant decrease of 30-day septic shock mortality rate was found between 2009 and 2011, but not after 2011. Per 1-point increase of the average SOFA score, average mortality increased by 1.8–3.3%.ConclusionTrends of lower sepsis and continuous septic shock mortality rates over time and regional disparities indicate a remaining unmet need for improving sepsis management. Further research is needed to investigate how trends in the burden of disease influence mortality rates in sepsis and septic shock at 30- and 90-day mortality over time.

The role of national settings in the economic resilience of regions—Evidence from recessionary shocks in Europe from 1990 to 2014

AbstractThis paper focuses on the particular role of the national setting for the economic resilience of regions during the resistance and recovery phase. Our empirical set‐up introduces a spatial hierarchy of 249 NUTS‐2 regions nested in 22 European countries while it includes numerous recessionary shocks from 1990 to 2014. Our results suggest that the impact of the national setting is strongest during the resistance phase when the national level accounts for up to 44.9% of the variance in regional GDP development. During recovery, however, the national share decreases but still amounts to no less than 22.0%. Apart from the direct effects that originate from, for example, regulatory density and fiscal policy measures, the national impact takes the form of cross‐level moderation effects. These indirect effects indicate that the regional patterns of resilience are additionally shaped by the inter‐linkages of country‐specific institutional factors and regional determinants. Taking all this into account, regional economic resilience is anything but just a matter of regional capacities.

Household Debt and Economic Growth in Europe

We investigate the role and impact of household debt on the economic performance of the European economy during the double-dip recession of 2008-2013. We use a loan-level data set of millions of residential mortgages originated between 2000 and 2013 to calculate regional indicators of household debt and property prices. The detailed information allows us to construct a measure of interest rate mis-pricing during the housing boom that we use to identify the effect of a credit shock on household debt. Our analysis provides three main conclusions. First, in the period 2004-2006 the measure of credit shock was negative in most European regions which indicates that credit conditions were significantly relaxed relative to earlier years. Second, we find that regions in which household leverage increased more rapidly during the 2004-2006 period experienced a more severe decline in output and employment after 2008. These results are consistent with the view that an aggregate credit supply shock in Europe boosted household leverage and house prices. Third, we find that the credit shock had the largest effect on increasing leverage for the low-income and the middle-income households, although the change in leverage of the middle-income households represents a more powerful predictor of the decline in economic activity.

P1725Current spectrum and 1-year mortality of cardiogenic shock in Europe. Results of the CULPRIT-SHOCK randomized clinical trial and registry

Abstract Background An early invasive strategy with coronary revascularization has been shown to improve prognosis in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) complicated by cardiogenic shock (CS). Little is known about the current spectrum, treatment and 1-year mortality in patients with CS undergoing early angiography in Europe. Methods We evaluated baseline characteristics, treatments and 1-year outcome in a large number of patients with CS included into the prospective CULPRIT-SHOCK randomized trial and the accompanying registry. Between April 2013 and April 2017, a total of 1075 patients with cardiogenic shock were screened at 83 European centers, of whom 706 (65.6%) were included in the randomized trial RCTand 369 into the registry. Results The median age was 67 years and 25% were female. In total, 55% of patients had pre-hospital resuscitation, 6% underwent fibrinolysis before angiography, 65% presented with ST-elevation myocardial infarction, 15% with left bundle branch block, and 20% with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction. The majority of patients (80%) needed mechanical ventilation. Catecholamines were used in 90% and mechanical support in 29.5% of the patients (IABP 38.5%, ECMO 22%, Impella 33%, other 7%). Total 30-day and 1-year mortality was 46% and 52%, respectively. Mechanical complications were observed in 2.1% of patients, the latter had a 30-day and 1-year mortality of 62% and 67%, respectively. The mortality related to the extent of coronary artery disease is shown in the table. 1-vessel (14%) 2-vessel (31%) 3-vessel (55%) Left main (15%) 30-day mortality 36% 44% 51% 53% 1-year mortality 39% 50% 57% 64% Conclusions This first report including data of the prospective CULPRIT-SHOCK randomized trial as well as the accompanying registry demonstrates the high-risk clinical characteristics of patients with AMI complicated by CS undergoing contemporary treatment. Despite an early invasive strategy mortality in patients with AMI complicated by CS in Europe is still high and is related to the extent of coronary artery disease.

Frequency and mortality of septic shock in Europe and North America: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundSeptic shock is the most severe form of sepsis, in which profound underlying abnormalities in circulatory and cellular/metabolic parameters lead to substantially increased mortality. A clear understanding and up-to-date assessment of the burden and epidemiology of septic shock are needed to help guide resource allocation and thus ultimately improve patient care. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was therefore to provide a recent evaluation of the frequency of septic shock in intensive care units (ICUs) and associated ICU and hospital mortality.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from 1 January 2005 to 20 February 2018 for observational studies that reported on the frequency and mortality of septic shock. Four reviewers independently selected studies and extracted data. Disagreements were resolved via consensus. Random effects meta-analyses were performed to estimate pooled frequency of septic shock diagnosed at admission and during the ICU stay and to estimate septic shock mortality in the ICU, hospital, and at 28 or 30 days.ResultsThe literature search identified 6291 records of which 71 articles met the inclusion criteria. The frequency of septic shock was estimated at 10.4% (95% CI 5.9 to 16.1%) in studies reporting values for patients diagnosed at ICU admission and at 8.3% (95% CI 6.1 to 10.7%) in studies reporting values for patients diagnosed at any time during the ICU stay. ICU mortality was 37.3% (95% CI 31.5 to 43.5%), hospital mortality 39.0% (95% CI 34.4 to 43.9%), and 28-/30-day mortality 36.7% (95% CI 32.8 to 40.8%). Significant between-study heterogeneity was observed.ConclusionsOur literature review reaffirms the continued common occurrence of septic shock and estimates a high mortality of around 38%. The high level of heterogeneity observed in this review may be driven by variability in defining and applying the diagnostic criteria, as well as differences in treatment and care across settings and countries.

A life on the move: From the ravages of war to culture shock in Europe

Lucia Kula was only eight when war came to her doorstep and upended her life. A civil war had raged for years in her birthplace of Angola and her father was held political prisoner. To save her two daughters, Lucia’s mother picked up the family and fled for safer ground.

The Evolution of Regional Economic Interlinkages in Europe

This paper studies the dynamics of the propagation of regional business cycle shocks in Europe and uncovers new features of its underlying mechanisms. To address the lack of high frequency data at the regional level, we propose a new method to measure time-varying synchronization in small samples that combines regime-switching models and dynamic model averaging. The results indicate that: (i) in just two years, the Great Recession synchronized Europe twice as much as the European Union integration process did over several decades; (ii) Ile de France is the region acting as the main channel for the transmission of business cycle shocks in Europe; followed by Inner London and Lombardia; and (iii) we identify a nonlinear relationship between sectoral composition and regional synchronization, which was amplified in the wake of the Great Recession. Similarities in services sectors are primarily responsible for this nonlinear relationship.

Labour market adjustments and migration in Europe and the United States: how different?

We compare the labour market response to region-specific shocks in Europe and the United States and to national shocks in Europe and investigate changes over time. We employ a multilevel factor model to decompose regional labour market variables and then estimate the dynamic response of the employment level, the employment rate and the participation rate using the region-specific variables and the country factors. We find that both in Europe and in the United States labour mobility accounts for about 50% of the long-run adjustment to region-specific labour demand shocks and only a little more in the United States than in Europe, where adjustment takes twice as long. In Europe, labour mobility is a less important adjustment mechanism in response to country-specific labour demand shocks that cause stronger and more persistent reactions of the employment and the participation rate. However, we detect a convergence of the adjustment processes in Europe and the United States, reflecting both a fall in interstate migration in the United States and a rise in the role of migration in Europe. Finally, we show that part of the difference between Europe and the United States in previous studies may be due to the use of different data sources.

Septic shock in children in an urban area in Western Germany--outcome, risk factors for mortality and infection epidemiology.

Only sparse data exist about children with septic shock in Europe. The present study aimed to evaluate demographics, treatment, outcome and risk factors for mortality in Western Germany. Children with septic shock aged 2 months to 17 years. In a multi-center retrospective study of 20 children's hospitals data were obtained and analyzed by chart review. Risk factors for mortality were identified and assessed by multivariate regression analysis. Overall mortality in 83 cases with septic shock was 25% (21 patients). Significant risk factors were high PRISM III score, low pH, low arterial systolic blood pressure, presence of disseminated intravascular coagulation and extent of multi-organ failure, but not lactate (p=0.05) and base excess (p=0.065). Mortality in hospitals which treated 10 or more patients (category 1) was 17% and increased to 22% in hospitals which treated 3-6 patients (category 2). In hospitals with only 1 or 2 patients (category 3) mortality rate was 61% (p<0.01 when compared to category 1 or 2). A stepwise increase was also seen in the severely sick patients according to PRISM III (>19): category 1: 23%, category 2: 40%, category 3: 62.5% (p<0.05 for comparison of category 1 and 3). Multivariate analysis of significant risk factors revealed low number of treated patients as the only individual risk factor for mortality. Mortality from pediatric septic shock in an urban area in Western Germany is high. Disease severity and treatment in a department with few cases were associated with increased mortality.

Labour Market Adjustments in Europe and the US: How Different?

We compare the labour market response to region-specific shocks in Europe and the US and to national shocks in Europe and investigate changes over time. We employ a multi-level factor model to decompose regional labour market variables and then estimate the dynamic response of the employment level, the employment rate and the participation rate using the region-specific variables and the country factors. We find that both in Europe and the US labour mobility accounts for about 50% of the long run adjustment to region-specific labour demand shocks and only a little more in the US than in Europe, where adjustment takes twice as long. In Europe labour mobility is a less important adjustment mechanism in response to country-specific labour demand shocks that cause stronger and more persistent reactions of the employment and the participation rate. However, we detect a convergence of the adjustment processes in Europe and the US, reflecting both a fall in interstate migration in the US and a rise in the role of migration in Europe. Finally, we show that part of the difference between Europe and the US in previous studies may be due to the use of different data sources.

Measuring Sovereign Contagion in Europe

This paper analyzes the sovereign risk contagion using credit default swaps (CDS) and bond premiums for the major eurozone countries. By emphasizing several econometric approaches (nonlinear regression, quantile regression and Bayesian quantile regression with heteroskedasticity) we show that propagation of shocks in Europe's CDS has been remarkably constant for the period 2008-2011 even though a significant part of the sample periphery countries have been extremely affected by their sovereign debt and fiscal situations. Thus, the integration among the different eurozone countries is stable, and the risk spillover among these countries is not affected by the size of the shock, implying that so far contagion has remained subdue. Results for the CDS sample are conformed by examining bond spreads. However, the analysis of bond data shows that there is a change in the intensity of the propagation of shocks in the 2003-2006 pre-crisis period and the 2008-2011 post-Lehman one, but the coefficients actually go down, not up! All the increases in correlation we have witnessed over the last years come from larger shocks and the heteroskedasticity in the data, not from similar shocks propagated with higher intensity across Europe. This is the first paper, to our knowledge, where a Bayesian quantile regression approach is used to measure contagion. This methodology is particularly well-suited to deal with nonlinear and unstable transmission mechanisms.