Effects Of Shocks Research Articles

On the Detection of Structural Breaks: The Case of the Covid Shock

ABSTRACTBoth the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have been criticized for not having perceived that the outbreak of Covid at the beginning of 2020 would lead to a structural change in inflation in the early 2020s. Both central banks viewed the initial inflation surge in 2021 as temporary and delayed monetary tightening until 2022. We argue that the existing literature on structural breaks could not have been useful to policymakers because it identifies the breaks in an arbitrary way. The tests used to identify breaks do not incorporate prior knowledge that a break may have occurred so that the tests have very little power to detect a break that occurs at the end of the sample. We show that, in the event of a major shock, such as Covid, using knowledge that a break may have occurred and testing for a break in a recursive way as new data become available could have alerted policymakers to the break in inflation. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations suggesting that our method would have identified that a break had occurred in inflation by the end of 2020, well before policymakers had perceived the break.

Bioinformatic Analysis of Actin-Binding Proteins in the Nucleolus During Heat Shock

Background/Objectives: Actin plays a crucial role not only in the cytoplasm, but also in the nucleus, influencing various cellular behaviors, including cell migration and gene expression. Recent studies reveal that nuclear actin dynamics is altered by cellular stresses, such as DNA damage; however, the effect of heat shock on nuclear actin dynamics, particularly in the nucleolus, remains unclear. This study aims to elucidate the contribution of nucleolar actin to cellular responses under heat shock conditions. Methods: Nuclear actin dynamics in response to heat shock were investigated using nAC-GFP, a GFP-tagged actin chromobody, to visualize nuclear actin in HeLa cells. Bioinformatic analyses were also performed. Results: Heat shock induced the reversible assembly of nAC-GFP in the nucleolus, with disassembly occurring upon recovery in a heat shock protein (Hsp) 70-dependent manner. Because the nucleolus, formed via liquid–liquid phase separation (LLPS), sequesters misfolded proteins under heat shock to prevent irreversible aggregation, we hypothesized that nucleolar actin-binding proteins might also be sequestered in a similar manner. Using several databases, we identified 47 actin-binding proteins localized in the nucleolus and determined the proportion of intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs) known to promote LLPS. Our analysis revealed that many of these 47 proteins exhibited high levels of IDRs. Conclusions: The findings from our bioinformatics analysis and further cellular studies may help elucidate new roles for actin in the heat shock response.

“We have limited time, so it's a zero-sum game”: Influence of secondary organizational socialization on the forms of physical education teacher education provided by European, Asian, and North American-based mid-career faculty members

The purpose of this study was to describe the influence of secondary organizational socialization on six mid-career faculty members’ provision of physical education teacher education (PETE). The specific research questions we sought to answer were: (a) what forms of PETE did mid-career faculty members provide for their preservice teachers? and (b) what factors aided or undermined mid-career faculty members’ provision of PETE? The faculty members worked in universities situated on three continents. The primary data source was a semi-structured interview with each faculty member. Optional supplementary data were supplied by three of the participants in the form of artifacts and film. Data were reduced to themes through analytic induction and constant comparison. Key findings were that faculty members provided two forms of PETE that were combinations of the critical-inquiry, traditional/craft, personalistic, and behavioristic orientations to teacher education. Three faculty members worked in what they perceived to be negative cultures, two in positive cultures, and one in a neutral culture. All six faculty members worked in what they perceived to be unfavorable conditions. Collectively, this situation made it difficult for faculty members to provide PETE as they intended. Faculty members dealt with adverse cultures and conditions by attempting to strategically redefine them or by strategically complying with them. The findings of the study may help to improve the culture and conditions in which sport pedagogy faculty members work, negate the effects of reality shock on neophyte faculty members, and promote faculty members’ thinking about the forms of PETE they provide.

A bipartite network analysis of international trade volatility

This study examines the unprecedented global trade disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and their propagation through international supply chains. By analyzing monthly data for 75 countries across 1260 product categories, we find that declining trade disruptions are more concentrated than surge disruptions, indicating a broader impact of negative shocks on global trade. Our findings also suggest that disruptions in export flows tend to have a more significant effect than imports and that trade disruptions within a given commodity are more likely to spread to other countries trading in that same commodity rather than to other commodities traded by the same country. These insights offer lessons for firms and policymakers seeking to mitigate the effects of future exogenous shocks on global markets and supply chains.

Climate, crops, and postharvest conflict

AbstractI present new evidence of the effects of climate shocks on conflict. Focusing on political violence in Africa, I find that El Niño Southern Oscillation shocks during the crop‐growing season affect harvest‐related conflict in croplands exposed to this climate phenomenon. Specifically, a 1°C warming of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean, a proxy for a moderate‐strength El Niño event, reduces political violence in exposed locations with crop agriculture, relative to other areas, by approximately 3%, during the early postharvest season. This effect attenuates toward zero as the crop year progresses. This effect can reach as much as 15% after a strong El Niño event, such as that of 1997 or 2015, in highly exposed croplands, such as parts of Southern Africa and the Sahel. Conversely, a La Niña event, which is a counterpart of an El Niño event, has the opposite effect and thus increases conflict in the exposed croplands during the early postharvest season. Because these events can be predicted several months in advance, the findings of this research can contribute to creating a platform for early warnings about transitory spatiotemporal shifts in political violence in predominantly agrarian societies.

Surviving the COVID-19 pandemic: European and African SMEs and domestic public policies compared

Purpose The paper investigates factors that contribute to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) surviving major exogenous shocks. Global crises such as the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have increasingly heightened scholarly interest in post-crises responses. However, studies that compare the relative responses to external shocks and the outcomes for SMEs operating in different institutional settings are limited. We examine the relative degrees of success European and African SMEs experienced in avoiding the worst consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachWe use the resource dependency theory (RDT) with variants of institutional theory since the RDT has been shown in practice to have greater explanatory power when used in this way. We augment our framework with a feminist theory dimension. To test our hypotheses, we apply regression analyses using cross-sectional data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES), which include responses from private enterprises in 26 European and eight African countries. We construct our data by combining the COVID-19 follow-up surveys with relevant firm-specific characteristics from the WBES conducted in 2020–2021 using firm-specific unique IDs. After removing the firms with missing observations, the sample number of SMEs is 15,178.Findings Our empirical findings support the theoretically posited positive effects of innovativeness, institutional connectedness and governance capability on SMEs’ survival in the face of external shocks. Further, we confirm the importance of firm-specific characteristics (financial status, size and age) for SMEs’ survival. Female-owned SMEs are more likely to suffer during COVID-19, especially in Africa. The results are more nuanced when we consider industry specificity and heterogeneity of government support.Originality/value Our article helps answer the theoretical (and policy-relevant) question of whether SMEs that are resilient to major exogenous shocks may share certain characteristics despite operating in different institutional environments. If that is so, then it may be that lessons from one continent may have at least some relevance for the other. Our approach’s broad value lies in its capacity to test the degree to which established bodies of theory developed in the Northern Hemisphere may be deployed in Africa, well beyond the contexts which provided their initial empirical basis. This paper also contributes to the literature on the effect of environmental-change shocks on entrepreneurship performance outcomes.

Characteristics of Three-Dimensional Pore-Fracture Network Development and Enhanced Seepage Heat Transfer in Hot Dry Rock Stimulated by Temperature Shock Effects

Characteristics of Three-Dimensional Pore-Fracture Network Development and Enhanced Seepage Heat Transfer in Hot Dry Rock Stimulated by Temperature Shock Effects

A high effectiveness impact‐optimized piezoelectric energy harvesting interface system

AbstractThis paper presents a novel high‐performance impact‐optimized interface system for an impact‐driven piezoelectric energy harvester (PEH) which utilizes two independent parallel harvesting plans, that is, low‐efficiency self‐powered passive path and high‐efficiency active maximum power point tracking (MPPT)‐based path, for different situations based on the characteristics of the input excitation and stored energy content which are evaluated by the mode detection unit. It uses a synchronous electrical charge extraction‐based self‐powered passive circuit as a primary energy extraction strategy. Thus, the proposed structure is self‐sustained with cold start capability. When the determined prerequisites are met, the system switches to the secondary energy extraction strategy, that is, high‐efficiency MPPT‐based path, in which during the maximum power point sensing phase, the PEH is sensed without disconnecting it from the interface and during the maximum power point setting phase, a bidirectional DC/DC converter performs a fully bidirectional energy transfer, increasing the extraction efficiency. The proposed system is designed and simulated using standard 180 nm complementary metal‐oxide semiconductor (CMOS) technology. Post‐layout simulation results show that when the input energy content is around 50 µJ, the FoMMOPIR, periodic harvesting efficiency, shock harvesting efficiency, MPPT efficiency, and effectiveness of the proposed system are 505%, 65%, 80%, 70%, and 56%, respectively.

Shocking projections: The rise of the [x-shock] construction complex in macroeconomics

How do economists think and talk about contingency? They express shock, but not in the typical sense of being surprised. In fact, mainstream economists build models in which shocking events are expected variables. An investigation of nominal forms in the [x-shock] construction (e.g., “technology shock,” “supply shock,” or “monetary shock”) among economists reveals a steep increase in the late twentieth century. We report on a large-scale empirical investigation of influential economic textbooks, top economic journals, and US Federal Reserve documents. Each corpus shows a steep rise in the frequency of nominal [x-shock] beginning in the 1980s. This quantitative analysis lays the groundwork for a qualitative analysis of the various uses of [x-shock] among economists from different schools. First, the rise of nominal shock typifies a process of de-subjectification in which shock moves from its more direct experiential uses toward a role of abstract causation. Second, the steep rise in usage coincides with the rise of general equilibrium models in some economic schools of thought. These models assume a particular type of force dynamic logic. In response, other schools invoke a contrasting force dynamic logic. These developments in the [x-shock] construction show not only semantic change but also the disciplinary logics consolidating that change.

European Firms’ Delisting Around Major Regulatory Shocks: The Cost-Benefit Tradeoff of the Financial Services Action Plan

ABSTRACT Between 1999 and 2005, the EU adopted the Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP) to reshape its financial markets. In this paper, we examine the firm-level effect of this major regulatory shock. In pre/post-2005 analyses, we compare the probabilities of companies voluntarily or involuntarily delisting in seven European economies that strongly commit to implementing regulations and seven economies that apply regulations more leniently. Our findings indicate an increased probability of delisting after 2005, primarily due to involuntary delistings in economies that implement regulations strictly. Furthermore, we examine a core element of the FSAP, the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) mandate, which aimed to improve public firms’ reporting and disclosure quality. IFRS continued to undergo rapid changes after 2005, and we document an incremental association between delisting and the post-2005 changes. Our results highlight the firm-level consequences of the FSAP across jurisdictions with varying institutional environments. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: G15; G18; G38; K22; M48.

An Investigation into the Effects of Culture Shock on Freshmen EFL Students at the University of Labor and Social Affairs, Ho Chi Minh City Campus

This study explores the impacts of culture shock on freshmen English as a Foreign Language (EFL) students at the University of Labor and Social Affairs (Ho Chi Minh City Campus), with a particular focus on the psychological, emotional, and academic challenges they encounter during their transition to urban life. Culture shock, a multifaceted phenomenon involving emotional, psychological, and cognitive stressors, can significantly hinder students’ adjustment to new cultural and academic environments. The study identifies several key negative effects, including confusion, fear, homesickness, and discomfort, all of which interfere with language learning and social integration. Through qualitative methods, including semi-structured interviews and group discussions, the research uncovers students' experiences of psychological distress and their struggles with adapting to urban lifestyles and communication barriers. In addition to these challenges, the study highlights effective coping mechanisms, such as pre-arrival preparation programs, fostering cultural acceptance, and cultivating a positive mindset, which help students navigate the adjustment process. The findings emphasize the importance of pre-arrival training and the integration of Social Emotional Learning (SEL) strategies within the curriculum to promote both academic success and emotional resilience. The research concludes by advocating for a holistic approach to student support, where universities implement comprehensive strategies that address the emotional, social, and academic needs of EFL students. By focusing on these areas, institutions can reduce the negative impacts of culture shock, ensuring students’ successful integration into the academic community and enhancing their overall well-being.

Adverse effects of heat shock in rice (Oryza sativa L.) and approaches to mitigate it for sustainable rice production under the changing climate: A comprehensive review

Adverse effects of heat shock in rice (Oryza sativa L.) and approaches to mitigate it for sustainable rice production under the changing climate: A comprehensive review

A Study of Slow-mode Shocks in the Near-Earth Magnetotail with MMS Observations and Hybrid Simulations

The structure of the magnetic reconnection boundary, particularly the presence of slow-mode shocks in the near-Earth magnetotail was studied by using magnetospheric multiscale (MMS) observations and 2.5D hybrid simulations. A total of 51 crossings of MMS from 2017 to 2021 were analyzed. We found that the detection percentage of slow-mode shocks in the near-Earth magnetotail is 41%–55%. Previous studies have only reported one slow-mode shock event in the near-Earth magnetotail and a slow-mode shock detection percentage of 10% or lower in the mid-to-distant magnetotail. It was observed that if the high-energy beam region data is removed from the slow-mode shock downstream observations then the detection of slow-mode shocks reduces, implying that the kinetic effects play an important role in the detection of slow-mode shocks. For the crossings where the interface was not identified as a slow-mode shock, it was found that the turbulence in those crossings can change the mass flux values and disrupt the detection of slow-mode shock. However, the macroscopic slow-mode shock-like structure stably exists around the magnetic reconnection interface, as most of the conditions for slow-mode shocks were satisfied. This result suggests that slow-mode shocks are a general feature of magnetic reconnection geometry. We find that the lack of detection of slow-mode shocks in previous observations and simulations can be explained by taking into account the kinetic structure of slow-mode shocks and the presence of turbulence.

Do disaggregated oil price shocks drive the Chinese non-ferrous metal market across different time horizons and quantiles?

ABSTRACT This study uses a wavelet-based quantile approach to document the effects of disaggregated oil shocks on the Chinese non-ferrous metal market under various time horizons and quantiles. Oil shocks are decomposed into supply, aggregate demand, and oil-specific demand shocks based on a structural vector autoregressive model. Empirical results suggest that oil shocks have notable impacts on the Chinese non-ferrous metal market in the middle and long term, whereas the impacts in the short term are not significant. The impacts remain remarkably heterogeneous across quantile levels in the long term. Oil supply shocks significantly affect the non-ferrous metal market positively, but only at higher quantiles. The positive effect of aggregate demand shocks and the negative effect of oil-specific demand shocks are significant at lower quantiles. Moreover, copper is susceptible to oil shocks, compared with aluminium. These findings provide several implications for policymakers and investors.

Markers of Endothelial Injury in Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation: A New Risk Assessment Method

IntroductionExtracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has become more widely used in recent years. However, ECMO remains a resource-intensive modality, and identifying patients most likely to benefit from it can be a complex task. Few methods exist to help risk stratify potential ECMO patients. Syndecan-1 (SDC-1) and soluble thrombomodulin (sTM) are markers of endothelial dysfunction and are used as a sign of disease severity in various forms of trauma. Our study aims to evaluate the association between precannulation levels of SDC-1 and sTM with mortality, current scoring systems, and their ability to predict mortality on ECMO. MethodsPatients initiated on venoarterial ECMO were retrospectively analyzed. Clinical data were collected, and precannulation Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation scores were calculated. Blood samples from precannulation collection were assayed for SDC-1 and sTM by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. The primary outcome was mortality on ECMO. ResultsThirty-four patients were included in the analysis. Most were male (76.5%), with a median age of 61.5 y and body mass index of 28.2. Overall mortality was 61.7%. sTM was significantly higher in patients who died on venoarterial ECMO compared to those who lived. Pre–SDC-1 level of ≥951 ng/mL is marginally predictive of a higher mortality risk (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.70; P = 0.070). Pre-sTM levels of ≥5348 pg/mL predicted mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.89; P = 0.003). ConclusionsSDC-1 and sTM are associated with a higher mortality risk in patients on ECMO. These biomarkers may be a valuable addition to current scoring systems. Furthermore, more work should focus on characterizing the effects of cardiogenic shock on the endothelium.

Macroeconomic responses to financial stress shocks: Evidence from the US and the Eurozone

This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of an unexpected financial stress shock in the United States and the Eurozone, focusing mainly on the effect on unemployment and the response of monetary policy. First, we estimate Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) based on a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model with short-run restrictions according to economic theory. Next, we perform panel data analysis shedding light on the factors that affect unemployment in the two regions. Our findings indicate a significant impact of financial stress shocks on the macroeconomic environment, but with different policy responses from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). The impact of higher financial stress on economic activity and employment is negative in both regions, but the duration of the impact on unemployment is shorter in the US, suggesting a quicker recovery in the US labor market compared to the Eurozone. The faster recovery of the US labor market is primarily due to the superior institutional and regulatory performance in the US. These findings provide policymakers with valuable lessons about the importance of continuous monitoring and quick action to mitigate the negative effects of financial instability on economic activity.

Cooperative Innovation Under the “Belt and Road Initiative” for Reducing Carbon Emissions: An Estimation Based on the Spatial Difference-in-Differences Model

The Belt and Road Initiative holds significant importance for achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, particularly Goals 9 and 17. Drawing on data from the Web of Science database, the BRI database, and the World Bank database, this study explores the potential carbon emission reduction effects that cooperative innovations may bring to participating countries under the Belt and Road Initiative. The study constructs variable endogenous spatio-temporal weight matrices based on initial spatial weight matrices and, drawing on trends in co-authored publications, innovatively establishes time dummy variables and event dummy variables in a difference-in-differences (DID) model. This approach fully considers the interconnected, shared model of the Belt and Road Initiative and the spatial effects of policy implementation. A spatial DID model was established for 106 BRI participating countries and regions from 2005 to 2021. The results reveal the following: first, cooperative innovation under the BRI significantly reduces carbon emission intensity in participating countries. Second, the BRI primarily achieves carbon reduction through investment, innovation, and trade mechanisms. Third, the results of the global SDID model indicate that cooperative innovation with China negatively impacts carbon emission intensity. Also, this effect exhibits spatial spillover, suggesting that there is a policy spillover effect. Fourth, the decomposition of local policy shock effects indicates that the influences of cooperative innovation exhibit spatial heterogeneity, with varying degrees of direct and indirect effects on carbon emission intensity across different countries.

Vertical vibration characteristics of wheelset-gearbox-bogie frame system in different track irregularity conditions: simulation and full-scale test

ABSTRACT The vibration characteristics of a wheelset-gearbox-bogie frame system are studied under wheel-roller roughness and varying track irregularities utilizing a full-scale rolling test rig. A corresponding dynamic model is developed based on the discrete time transfer matrix method, which integrates a modular flexible wheelset model. The results reveal that, (1) low-frequency vibrations (0–50 Hz): dominated by track irregularities below 200 km/h but by wheel-roller rotation above 350 km/h; (2) mid-frequency vibrations (50–500 Hz): prominent shock effects appear at discrete frequencies above 350 km/h, related to wheel-roller roughness; (3) high-frequency vibrations (500–1000 Hz): great differences under various irregularities and distinguishing structural natural frequencies becomes difficult. Amplitude contributions at speeds below 200 km/h are mid (57–62%), low (26–32%), and high (11–14%). Above 350 km/h, mid-frequency increases while low-frequency decreases by 15%, respectively. To improve vibration performance at superspeed (e.g., 500 km/h), stricter wheel-rail roughness control becomes imperative.

Transition shock experience of newly graduated nurses: a qualitative study

Aim This study aims to gain an in-depth understanding of the experience and requirements of newly employed nurses during their transition into professional roles. Furthermore, it aims to analyze the effects of transition shock on these nurses, identify the typical coping mechanisms they employ, and provide a reference for nursing administrators to explore and improve relevant interventions. Background In the early stages of their careers, newly graduated nurses frequently encounter various challenging situations that might impact their job performance and professional growth. Over the past few years, experts have increasingly focused on transition shock. However, limited studies have been undertaken on the role adaptation factors related to freshly graduating nurses during their transition. Methods The study’s design and implementation were guided by the phenomenological method. Purposive sampling and semi-structured in-depth interviews were used to recruit 16 participants. Interviews were transcribed verbatim, and the data were analyzed using thematic techniques assisted by Nvivo coding software. Results We analyzed interview data based on Duchscher’s transition shock theoretical framework. A total of 3 themes and 12 sub-themes were distilled, which include perceptions and feelings when facing transition shocks (4 sub-themes), impacts of transition shocks (4 sub-themes), and strategies for coping with transition shocks (3 sub-themes). Discussion and Conclusion Newly recruited nurses are prone to suffer multidimensional problems and impacts during the transition process, mostly characterized by physical discomfort, psychological anxiety, and the need for social support and career development. Nursing managers should pay attention to the mental health status and changes of new nurses at different stages and proactively investigate and implement personalized interventions.

Transition climate risks and corporate risky asset holdings: evidence from US firms

Using data from US firms over 22 years, this paper shows that firms’ risky asset holdings are negatively associated with their transition climate risks exposure. The evidence remains robust across model specifications and robustness checks, while is more pronounced for financially constrained firms. The findings are consistent with the precautionary motive framework and imply that firms need to reduce their risky asset holdings in the event of negative shocks of transition climate risks.