Shifting Demand Patterns Research Articles

Stress-Testing Framework for Urban Water Systems: A Source to Tap Approach for Stochastic Resilience Assessment

Optimizing the design and operation of an Urban Water System (UWS) faces significant challenges over its lifespan to account for the uncertainties of important stressors that arise from population growth rates, climate change factors, or shifting demand patterns. The analysis of a UWS’s performance across interdependent subsystems benefits from a multi-model approach where different designs are tested against a variety of metrics and in different times scales for each subsystem. In this work, we present a stress-testing framework for UWSs that assesses the system’s resilience, i.e., the degree to which a UWS continues to perform under progressively increasing disturbance (deviation from normal operating conditions). The framework is underpinned by a modeling chain that covers the entire water cycle, in a source-to-tap manner, coupling a water resources management model, a hydraulic water distribution model, and a water demand generation model. An additional stochastic simulation module enables the representation and modeling of uncertainty throughout the water cycle. We demonstrate the framework by “stress-testing” a synthetic UWS case study with an ensemble of scenarios whose parameters are stochastically changing within the UWS simulation timeframe and quantify the uncertainty in the estimation of the system’s resilience.

Volatility drivers on the metal market and exposure of producing countries

The paper focuses on minor metals and coupled elements and aspires to understand individual incidents of imbalance on the mineral markets during the last 100 years and gain insight into the acting dynamics—those dynamics are commodity-specific but remain largely unchanged in their nature to date—and to identify the factors in play. The conclusions allow for a critical analysis of the widespread security-of-supply narrative of industrialized countries. They point at a market that is mostly a buyers’ market, in which prices and their volatility are largely dictated by shifting demand patterns and much less by supply constraints. Neither high country concentration nor poor governance seem to have a substantial or lasting impact on market balance. Short-term market imbalances are generally neutralized by a dynamic reaction on the demand side via substitution, efficiency gains or technological change. The paper also assesses the impact of those quickly shifting demand patterns and the related price volatilities on producing countries. It shows how mineral price volatilities can expose developing countries’ economies to significant economic risk, if their economy is heavily dependent on mineral production. Two cases that illustrate country exposure are explored in detail—the saltpeter crisis in Chile and the tin crisis in Bolivia. Both led to state bankruptcy. The paper concludes with an attempt to quantify economic exposure of producing countries to price volatilities of specific metals and suggests policies that adapt to the characteristic challenges of highly volatile demand.

A qualitative study on human resources for primary health care in Iran.

According to World Bank Group report, while Primary Health Care (PHC) services in Iran were appropriate to the needs of the population in the late 1970s and 1980s, the changing burden of diseases and shifting demand patterns have rendered the existing PHC system no longer suitable to meet current and emergent needs. Based on previous studies, one of the main PHC challenges in Iran relates to human resources issues. This study was conducted in 2012 at 3 scales of local (Tabriz city), provincial (East Azerbaijan), and national levels. Two qualitative methods were used in the study: free-focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. Framework analysis was used to analyze collected data. Categories of analysis were developed using framework analysis approach, and main themes were emerged. Four themes were developed and finalized out of focus group discussions and interviews: availability of health workers in PHC, competency, PHC health workers' motivation, and PHC managerial issues. Based on findings and issues discovered in this study, several suggestions can be made, including development, implementation, and evaluation of needs assessment strategies for various vocational posts, promotion of educational courses and PHC-based training, strengthening of relationships and coordination between practical and scientific bodies, application of incentive programs in PHC, and strengthening of system management capacity through use of qualified managers.

Deindustrialisation and productivity in the EU

This article is envisioned as a first step in a comprehensive analysis of the European Union’s (EU) industrial base, designed to inform the current debate, and future policy decisions regarding deindustrialisation and reindustrialisation in the EU. We focus on the study of deindustrialisation and productivity, to determine the causes of deindustrialisation and its relation to productivity in the EU, and whether it can be explained primarily as a natural process, or alternatively as a negative economic trend. Our results indicate that the main causes of deindustrialisation in the EU were shifting demand patterns caused by rising GDP per capita, followed by growing international trade which corroborates the hypothesis that the process is natural. In the second part we take a closer look at manufacturing productivity as an integral cause of deindustrialisation. We analyse the impact of market dynamics, concentration and firm size on manufacturing productivity, where we find evidence which supports the conclusion that a higher level of market dynamics increases productivity, while firm size and market concentration seem to decrease industry productivity.

Cost and revenue synergies in airline mergers – Examining geographical differences

Deregulation, privatization and shifting demand patterns in the airline industry, combined with the emergence of low-cost airlines and rising fuel prices have increased the competitive pressure on legacy airlines. Since alliances do not deliver sufficient benefits to counterbalance these trends, many airlines have engaged in mergers to seek for additional cost and revenue synergies. An extent body of literature investigates the synergy potential in mergers and alliances, but there is no study on how synergies differ among mergers and what potential influence factors cause these differences. This paper aims at explaining differences in synergy estimates and realized synergies in recent airline mergers and places a special focus on geographical influence factors.The research methodology uses a comparative case study comprising six large airline mergers between 2003 and 2012 from Europe, North America and Latin America. After analyzing the cases individually, the pre-merger situation of the merging airlines, the synergy estimates and the realized synergies of the cases were compared.The results show considerable geographical differences in pre-merger cost structures, synergy estimates, and synergy realization. The European mergers present lower synergy estimates but also lower integration costs than mergers in the Americas. Whereas European airlines estimate cost synergies higher than revenue synergies, both North and Latin American airlines expect more revenue synergies than cost synergies from airline mergers. Only one merger showed superior post-merger profitability which indicates that the achieved synergies in the broad majority of the cases are insignificant.

Recent Developments in Dynamic Pricing Research: Multiple Products, Competition, and Limited Demand Information

Dynamic pricing enables a firm to increase revenue by better matching supply with demand, responding to shifting demand patterns, and achieving customer segmentation. In the last 20 years, numerous success stories of dynamic pricing applications have motivated a rapidly growing research interest in a variety of dynamic pricing problems in the academic literature. A large class of problems that arise in various revenue management applications involve selling a given amount of inventory over a finite time horizon without inventory replenishment. In this study, we identify most recent trends in dynamic pricing research involving such problems. We review existing research on three new classes of problems that have attracted a rapidly growing interest in the last several years, namely, problems with multiple products, problems with competition, and problems with limited demand information. We also identify a number of possible directions for future research.

Performance Measures For Managing UrbanTraffic Signal Systems

Most urban traffic control systems go through a rather rigorous design phase based upon a set of fixed design volumes that do not capture the stochastic variation in traffic due to weather, incidents, special events, and shifting demand patterns. Once these systems are built, their operation is relatively open loop, with public feedback (complaints) often the primary feedback for assessing operations and initiating changes. This paper describes procedures and case studies that illustrate how fundamental traffic engineering concepts can be integrated with traffic signal system detection and controller status information to provide real time performance measures. These performance measures characterize the operation of a traffic signal system and identify operation improvement opportunities. Several example performance measure graphics are provided to illustrate how these tools can be used for making operations decisions, evaluating field deployments, and preparing reports for decision makers. The paper concludes by discussing how these performance measures can be extended to include other surface transportation modes, particularly pedestrians, railroads, and transit.

Weaknesses and Challenges of Primary Healthcare System in Iran: A Review

While the primary healthcare (PHC) services in Iran were appropriate to the needs of the population in the late 1970s and 1980s, the changing burden of disease and shifting demand patterns have rendered the existing PHC system no longer suitable for meeting current and emergent needs. This has serious implications for the PHC system in Iran, which has clearly succeeded in addressing high levels of communicable diseases, maternal deaths and infant mortality, but appears less well prepared to address the emerging challenges of noncommunicable diseases (NCD). We conducted a systematic review of the available literature in the past 10 years related to the PHC system in Iran to assess its weaknesses and challenges. This paper categorizes PHC system weaknesses from the studied articles into two groups: (i) those related to the key functions of PHC, and (ii) others, which refer to health system weaknesses existing with the current PHC model. Iran can draw on international experience and evidence regarding interventions, which can be used to develop an effective and responsive PHC system designed to address current and emerging needs, in particular the NCD burden.

The Salient Implications of Geo-Strategic Policies on Stablizing the Oil Market in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) Region

Oil as a Geo-strategic economic commodity will continue to play at least for the next 100 years a prominent worldly role in shaping Energy Security strategies and policies. This is why the Geo-strategic implications relating to the degree of stabilizing the oil market has increasingly started to gain more attention, concern, interest and momentum by multivariate parties. Another serious dimension that needs to be analyzed further in the foreseeable future in a cautious and calculating manner is the question of the implications of the ‘Arab Spring Revolutions or Uprising’ as fit to be categorized. Thus, according to the recent EIU Study under the title: “Spring Tide: Will the Arab Risings yield democracy, dictatorship or disorder?” Popular uprisings in the Arab world have produced the most dramatic changes in the region since the end of the colonial era in the middle of the 20th century. Admittedly, the fate of these popular uprisings remains in the balance. Building on this dramatic development, Frank A. Verrastro in his article entitled “Security implications of the changing energy landscape” asserted that there is a new energy landscape characterized by five prominent trends or dynamics as follows: shifting demand patterns; the changing resource base; price volatility and investment uncertainty; new players, alignments, and evolving rules; and the threat of climate change and efforts to impose carbon constraints on a fossil fuel – dependent world”. From a wider perspective, the Geo-strategic dimensions will continue to be determined not just by new players, but increasingly by multivariate areas of specific interests or concerns: security, politics, economics, social, status, and the ever changing technologies whereby innovative projects or solutions are constantly surprising the markets particularly with regards to the question of “renewable non-fossil energy options” such as the American Green Project (best known as Obama’s dream for energy security). It seems perceptive to note, that David L. Goldwyn is realistic in stating that “Energy insecurity is greater today than it has been in nearly 30 years. The global oil market is more fragile, more competitive, and more volatile.”

Fuel efficiency of the Austrian passenger vehicle fleet—Analysis of trends in the technological profile and related impacts on CO 2 emissions

This paper analyzes trends in the technological profile of the Austrian personnel vehicle fleet from 1990 to 2007. This includes the parameters of power, engine size and weight, which beyond the technological efficiency of the motor engine itself, are considered to be the main determinants of the fuel efficiency of the average car stock. Investigating the drivers of ever rising transport related greenhouse gas emissions is crucial in order to derive policies that strive towards more energy-efficient on-road passenger mobility. We focus on the efficacy of technological efficiency improvements in mitigating climate-relevant emissions from car use in light of shifting demand patterns towards bigger, heavier and more powerful cars. The analysis is descriptive in nature and based on a bottom-up database that was originally collated for the purpose of the present study. Technological data on car models, which includes tested fuel consumption, engine size, power and weight, is related to registered car stock and, in parts, to newly registered cars. From this, we obtain an original database of the Austrian passenger car fleet, i.e. information on consumer choice of specific car models, segregated by gasoline and diesel fuelled engines. Conclusions are derived for policies aimed at reducing the fossil fuel consumption of the moving vehicle fleet in order to contribute to a low carbon society.

Changing consumption patterns: impacts on retailers and their suppliers

New consumption patterns – expressed in demands for increasing variety, quality and individuality in the goods purchased – are said to be developing. They are held to be leading to an increasing demand for flexibility in supply, both in meeting variations in the size of order and in meeting rapidly shifting demand patterns for particular products. Where these changes in demand are occurring, they will be articulated through the demands made by retailers on their suppliers and through the attempts of manufacturers to provide retailers with the goods they believe the consumer is now demanding. This paper examines how these changing patterns of consumption and demands for flexibility of supply are altering the formof retailer-supplier relationships in Britain today. It draws on empirical evidence from the hosiery and bread industries. It also engages with current debates concerning the directions of retail restructuring in contemporary Britain.

The Trend of Structural Change in the International Oil Industry in the 1980s

Few industries during the last ten years have undergone such rapid changes as the international oil industry. During this decade, radical changes occurred in the conditions under which international oil companies acquire and trade crude oil. These external events initiated a far-reaching adjustment process that is likely to continue. In addition to changes in the upstream sector of the oil industry (exploration and production), the two quantum jumps in oil prices in 1973 and 1979 have drastically altered the conditions of downstream operations (refining and marketing). Two decades of unprecedented growth in oil demand, which had made the world economy heavily dependent on oil, have been reversed. Since 1979, oil demand has fallen more sharply than total energy demand, thereby reducing the relative importance of oil in the energy economy. While GNP in real terms in the Western industrialized countries (OECD)/sup 1/ rose slightly (by 3%) from 1979 to 1982, primary energy demand fell by 8%, and oil demand slipped by 19%, or a total of 7 mbd (million barrels per day). These developments forced the oil industry to shrink and adjust to the new environment. The oil industry is facing a two-sided problem: Under heavy competitive pressure it ismore » forced to reduce refining, transportation, and marketing capacities and at the same time to invest considerable amounts in rebuilding its resource base and modifying its refineries to meet shifting demand patterns.« less