Shift In Opinion Research Articles

A cultural evolution theory for contemporary polarization trends in moral opinions

While existing theories of political polarization tend to suggest that the opinions of liberals and conservatives move in opposite directions, available data indicate that opinions on a wide range of moral issues move in the liberal direction among both liberals and conservatives. Moreover, some political scientists have hypothesized that this movement follows an S-shaped curve among liberals and a similar, but later, S-shaped curve among conservatives, so that polarization on a given issue first increases (as opinions at an initial stage move faster among liberals) and then decreases (as opinions at a later stage move faster among conservatives). Here we show that these dynamics are explained by Moral Argument Theory, a cultural evolution theory positing that opinion shifts on moral issues arise from a certain content bias in social opinion transmission. This theory also yields several other specific predictions about trends and polarization in moral opinions, which we test against longitudinal data on 55 moral issues from the General Social Survey (sample sizes between 1798 and 57,809 per issue). The predictions are generally confirmed. We conclude that a cultural evolution perspective can provide valuable insights for social science in understanding contemporary societal changes.

Sentiments Unleashed : Pioneering the Frontier of Sentiment Analysis through Cutting-Edge Applications and Methodologies

Sentiment analysis is a powerful tool within Natural Language Processing (NLP), assists businesses and researchers in discerning the emotions, attitudes, and beliefs conveyed in written language. The increasing availability of textual data, including social media posts, product reviews, and customer feedback, has driven a significant increase in the demand for sentiment analysis. The primary goal is to uncover underlying emotions expressed through diverse word combinations, sentences, or paragraphs. By scrutinizing language nuances, it identifies a wide range of emotions, from joy and sadness to criticism and admiration. This profound understanding, facilitated by sentiment analysis, provides valuable insights into public perception, market trends, and consumer behaviours, empowering businesses to refine strategies, improve products, and enhance customer experiences. As sentiment analysis tools and techniques continue to advance, they present opportunities for progress, assisting businesses in navigating shifts in public opinion and enabling researchers to delve into the intricacies of human expression through text. With the continuous surge in textual data, sentiment analysis retains its significance in guiding stakeholders from diverse industries toward informed decisions and a comprehensive understanding of human sentiment. This research explores advanced approaches in sentiment analysis, including machine learning, lexicon-based methods, hybrid and ontology-based models, and multi-modal techniques, examining various levels, classifications, and methodologies.

Exploring Food Safety Emergency Incidents on Sina Weibo: Using Text Mining and Sentiment Evolution

Food safety remains a crucial concern in both public health and societal stability. In the age of information technology, social media has emerged as a pivotal channel for shaping public opinion and disseminating information, exerting a substantial influence on how the public perceives incidents related to food safety. This study specifically focuses on the “Rat-Headed Duck Neck” incident as a case study, conducting a comprehensive analysis of extensive social media data to investigate how online public discourse molds perceptions of such events. To accomplish this research, data were initially gathered using a custom web crawler technology. These data encompassed various aspects, including user interactions, emotional expressions, and the evolution of topics. Subsequently, the study employed an innovative approach by combining BERT-TextCNN and BERTopic models for a thorough analysis of sentiment and thematic aspects of the textual data. This analysis provided insights into the intricate emotions and primary concerns of the public regarding incidents related to food safety. Furthermore, the research harnessed Gephi, a network analysis tool, to scrutinize the dissemination of information within the network and to monitor dynamic shifts in public opinion. The findings from this study not only shed light on the role of online public sentiment in the propagation of food safety events but also provide fresh perspectives for policymakers and business leaders when responding to similar crises, taking into account the subtleties of online public sentiment. These innovative methodologies and findings significantly enhance our comprehension of public responses to food safety incidents within the realm of social media.

Deterrence and Missed Opportunities: Insights from the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The paper critiques the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a nuclear-armed alliance, exploring whether enlargement provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the role of deterrence in conflict escalation. Despite NATO's efforts to bolster Ukraine’s defenses without direct intervention, questions remain about the effectiveness of its deterrence strategy. Public opinion shifts in Sweden and Finland toward NATO membership after Russia’s actions highlight broader implications for European security. The paper also assesses the non-implementation of the Minsk agreements, exploring missed opportunities for conflict resolution and peacebuilding. By examining these dynamics, it contributes to debates on NATO's future, the efficacy of nuclear deterrence, and the prospects for cooperative security amidst escalating global tensions.

Analytic network process (ANP) based decision support tool for nuclear power plant location and reactor type selection

The nuclear energy industry has seen a resurgence due to interest in sustainable energy. Regulatory agencies are evaluating innovative technology and facility designs for the first time in a long time. The nuclear energy business needs a workable instrument for decision-making in light of the shift in public and regulatory opinion. This study has two main motivations. The first is to determine the set of criteria to be used in determining suitable locations for a nuclear power plant (NPP) to be established in Turkey and to determine suitable regions with Analytic Network Process (ANP) based analyzes in the light of these criteria. The second is to select the most suitable nuclear reactor type for the specified location. Plant efficiency and lifetime vary depending on the reactor type used. For this reason, in the study, both the location of the nuclear power plant and the selection of the appropriate reactor type for the plant were evaluated together. In this context, a criterion set consisting of 3 main criteria and 20 sub-criteria to be used in NPP installation location and reactor selection was determined. In the study, site selection was made by focusing on economic, social and technical factors, and reactor selection was made by focusing on technical factors. Giresun, Trabzon, Rize and Artvin provinces located in the Eastern Black Sea region were evaluated for NPP installation. For reactor selection, we focused on reactor types according to their coolants and in this context, PWR, PHWR, GCR and BWR reactors were examined. NPP location and reactor selection in the study; It was realized as Giresun (PWR) > Rize (PWR) > Trabzon (BWR) > Artvin (BWR).

Rally around the flag? Explaining changes in Swedish public opinion toward NATO membership after Russia's invasion of Ukraine

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden changed its historic position of non-alignment and applied for membership in the NATO military alliance. This decision coincided with a shift in public opinion in favor of NATO membership, in what has been described as the largest and fastest shift in public opinion that has ever been measured in Swedish history. We examine two aspects of this “rally around the flag effect” to explain this change, the effect of the crisis event itself and the effect of political elite influence by analyzing within-individual changes of a Swedish university student population at three different time points. We find that after the Russian invasion but before the decision was made to join NATO, public opinion was still split with roughly 40% still opposed. However, after the decision was made to apply for membership to the alliance many people changed their position (32%), either making up their minds or switching position entirely. We show that these changes were likely in response to the decision to join, and that they were moderated by individuals’ previously established political preferences.

Fluctuations in Cortisol and Testosterone Map to Fluctuations in Opinion Strength in Healthy Men

PurposeOpinions are often linked to emotions and stress. It is well established that testosterone and cortisol are useful biomarkers of stress and can predict human emotion and behavior. Therefore, the purpose of this work was to explore whether changes in testosterone and cortisol concentration map to shifts in opinions.MethodsWe present three studies with healthy men, where we (1) monitored diurnal changes in testosterone and cortisol alongside political opinion change using a descriptive longitudinal design, (2) assessed testosterone, cortisol and political opinion change in an experimental trial using a physical exercise intervention designed to decrease cortisol concentration and/or increase testosterone concentration, and (3) monitored testosterone and cortisol change with political opinion in a trial with psychosocial intervention designed to increase cortisol concentration/decrease testosterone concentration.ResultsTestosterone concentration and opinion changes were observed across the day (p < 0.05). Furthermore, opinions changed similarly to exercise-induced increases in testosterone (8.6–11.5%), but inversely to exercise-induced reductions in cortisol (p < 0.05). Opinion changes also occurred in similar fashion to testosterone changes following psychosocial intervention (-5.6% to -10.0%), and inversely to cortisol changes (p < 0.05). Finally, opinion change and testosterone change correlated at the within person level (r = 0.17 to 0.33; p < 0.05).ConclusionWe showed natural fluctuations in testosterone and cortisol covaried in parallel with shifts in opinion. Further, given the emergence of relationships for opinion change with hormone change, we contend that physiological stress response (i.e., testosterone and cortisol change) may predict, or even cause, opinion change.

Exploring changes in attitudes towards doping in sport in different groups of the russian population: a mixed methods study with policy recommendations

Introduction: This article examines the evolution of anti-doping culture in Russia through a comparative analysis of sociological surveys conducted in 2019, 2020, and 2021. It focuses on the changing attitudes of Russian citizens towards doping in sports, their awareness of anti-doping regulations, and the underlying causes and motivations for violations of anti-doping rules. The significance of understanding public opinion on doping and countermeasures is highlighted, underscoring its value for specialists, researchers, and executive authorities in addressing and mitigating the issue. Materials and Methods: The study employed sociological surveys across various categories and groups within the Russian population, spanning three consecutive years. These surveys aimed to gather comprehensive insights into the public's perception of doping, knowledge of anti-doping efforts, and attitudes towards the effectiveness of existing anti-doping measures. The methodology was designed to enable a detailed comparative analysis, shedding light on trends and shifts in public opinion over time. Results: Findings from the surveys reveal a noticeable development in the anti-doping culture among the Russian population, marked by changes in attitudes towards doping use and a growing awareness of anti-doping rules. The research identified specific causes and motives behind anti-doping rule violations, illustrating the complex nature of the issue. Additionally, the study provided an objective assessment of the problem's scale, based on the attitudes of various social groups towards the use of banned substances, whether of natural, narcotic, or synthetic origin. Conclusions: The paper concludes with up-to-date data on the anti-doping situation in the Russian Federation and perspectives from scientists on enhancing anti-doping efforts. Based on the analysis, the authors propose a set of measures aimed at improving anti-doping activities in Russia. These recommendations are intended to bolster the fight against doping, reflecting the study's contribution to forming a comprehensive understanding of societal attitudes towards this challenge and paving the way for more effective countermeasures. Keywords: doping, sports, anti-doping rules, anti-doping measures, anti-doping culture, attitudes toward doping in sports, opinion poll.

Swayed by leading questions

AbstractThe use of leading questions as part of interrogation techniques and the factors associated with the witness suggestibility are well researched in the scientific literature. Nevertheless, literature on suggestibility in intentionally or unintentionally poorly designed social opinion surveys and push polls is scarce. The objective of this paper was to test how easily the public is swayed by leading questions in poorly designed surveys, whether certain group types of respondents in terms of their susceptibility exist, and to investigate the relationship between several demographic and personality characteristics and susceptibility. For this purpose, an online self-administered survey was conducted, containing a block of neutral and several blocks of leading questions about the respondents’ opinions on minority groups. The results indicated that the negative wording in questions was reflected in a more negative opinion on minority groups, while there are differences between respondents in their level of suggestibility. Three groups of respondents exist, i.e., non-suggestible (with no shift in opinion), suggestible (who express a more negative opinion on minorities following the suggestion), and contra-suggestible respondents (who react on the contrary and give a more positive opinion after a negative suggestion). Susceptibility to suggestion is associated with respondents’ age, openness to experience, conscientiousness, and social desirability. The results suggest that contra-suggestibility might counterbalance the error made by the leading questions, at least when more controversial topics are being surveyed.

Bottom‐up foreign policy? Finland, NATO and public opinion

AbstractFinland's decision to apply for membership in NATO is a case of bottom‐up driven foreign policy. Public opinion had been rather stable for more than 25 years in the NATO issue with less than 30 per cent of the people supporting Finland's membership in NATO but almost overnight during the week when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, a majority of Finns were in favour of it. Only after that shift in public opinion did the decision‐makers support the idea of joining NATO. How was the bottom‐up driven change possible? First, the resistance to NATO membership in Finland was common but not deep. Second, in the run‐up to the war, Russia had demanded that NATO put a stop to its open door policy not only with regard to Ukraine but also for Finland. Third, Russia's unprovoked war on Ukraine constituted a particular frame in Finland, because the 1939 Winter War analogy was a key part of the collective memory. Finally, due to a strong tradition of national consensus in foreign and security policy, the shift in the public opinion became overwhelming: when the tide had turned, only very few resisted. In sum, four factors enabled the public opinion change: a rational basis for opinion change, a sense of urgency, an emotional push and the consensus effect. Although public opinion is often seen as stabilising and retardant force particularly in foreign and security policy, it can also be a driver for change when suitable conditions such as those in Finland exist.

Public opinion, racial bias and labour market outcomes in the USA.

Here we study the role of negative shifts in public opinion in the economic lives of under-represented racial groups by investigating sudden changes in views towards Asian people following the anti-Chinese rhetoric that emerged with the COVID-19 pandemic, and associated changes in employment status and earnings in the US labour market. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we find that, unlike other under-represented groups, Asian workers in occupations or industries with a higher likelihood of face-to-face interactions before the pandemic were more likely to become unemployed afterwards. While widespread along the political spectrum, negative shifts in the perceived favourability of Asian people, and not of other under-represented groups, were much stronger among those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and could have been more influenced by the anti-Asian rhetoric.

Temporal Dynamics of Online Sentiments: Investigating the Impact of Real-World Events on #StopAsianHate Twitter Movement

Stop Asian hate has been a heated topic on social media platforms because of the increase in Asian hate after the breakout of COVID-19 and hate crimes caused by Asian hate. The hashtag #StopAsianHate on Twitter points out that making proper consensus decisions can be an effective way to spread the impact of hate crimes and attract more attention to Asian hate to call for actions to stop Asian hate. To gain more theoretical knowledge for consensus decisions and guidance of public opinion, this study used MDCOR and tools developed by our researchers to analyze posts under tweets (opened answers) posted under the hashtag #StopAsianHate (from March 1, 2022, to August 31, 2023). The tools being used can directly analyze the open answers on Twitter, providing the study with the identification of topics and sentiment analysis. Through the analysis of 5-month data, which is far longer than other research, the dynamic of the publics opinion and sentiment is clearly shown. By understanding the shifts in public opinion and sentiment, more valid strategies for advocacy of anti-racism are hoped to be found.

Opinion Change or Differential Turnout: Changing Opinions on the Austin Police Department in a Budget Feedback Process

In 2020 the tragic murder of George Floyd at the hands of law enforcement ignited and intensified nationwide protests, demanding changes in police funding and allocation. This happened during a budgeting feedback exercise where residents of Austin, Texas were invited to share opinions on the budgets of various city service areas, including the Police Department, on an online platform designed by our team. Daily responses increased by a hundredfold and responses registered after the “exogenous shock” overwhelmingly advocated for reducing police funding. This opinion shift far exceeded what we observed in 14 other Participatory Budgeting elections on our Participatory Budgeting Platform, and can’t be explained by shifts in the respondent demographics. Analysis of the results from an Austin budgetary feedback exercise in 2021 and a follow-up survey indicates that the opinion shift from 2020 persisted, with the opinion gap on police funding widening. We conclude that there was an actual change of opinion regarding police funding. This study not only sheds light on the enduring impact of the 2020 events and protests on public opinion, but also showcases the value of analysis of clustered opinions as a tool in the evaluation toolkit of survey organizers.

Does information matter? Online discourse on the Yemenite children’s affair in Israel after release of archival documents

PurposeThis study evaluates how publicly available archival documents shaped online discussions about allegations that thousands of children were kidnapped during the 1950s in Israel, known as the Yemenite children’s affair. It examines if access to historical records leads to more informed and rational public discourse, especially on social media.Design/methodology/approachUsing content analysis, this study examines Facebook posts from media outlets, politicians, NGOs and public groups between 2016 and 2021 to understand how the Israeli State Archives’ release of over 300,000 documents affected support of the kidnapping.FindingsDespite extensive archival information debunking the kidnapping theory, public opinion and discourse largely continued to support it. This suggests a complex interaction between information availability, preexisting beliefs, echo chambers and group allegiances, suggesting that access to factual data alone may not effectively challenge established beliefs in online public settings.Research limitations/implicationsSince data were collected only from Facebook, our conclusions cannot be generalized to other platforms. The study relies only on publicly accessible data and does not establish causality between exposure to information and shifts in opinion. Our findings show that disclosing archival information does not significantly benefit public political discourse on contentious topics but also point to the advantages of mediating information by politicians, NGOs and journalists.Originality/valueAs a unique case study, this research contributes to understanding the role of historical archives in digital-age public discourse. It highlights their potential and limitations in facilitating informed debate and deliberation, emphasizing the complexity of influencing established beliefs with factual data.

Party responsiveness over time: From left-right to issue specific dimensions

Parties’ ideological responsiveness to public opinion is a key finding in the party politics literature. Leveraging the longitudinal coverage of public opinion and party position data, this research note shows that findings of left-right ideological responsiveness are limited to a specific time period. We find that since the mid-1990s, left-right shifts in public opinion are no longer significantly associated with party position changes on the same dimension. By examining over-time changes in responsiveness on more specific issue dimensions, we also uncover that at about the same time, a pattern of responsiveness on issues related to nationalism/immigration has emerged. These findings highlight the need to move beyond a focus on a single left-right dimension for studying public opinion and party behavior.

GeoCovaxTweets: A global analysis of COVID-19 vaccines and vaccination discourse on social media

Social media platforms play a crucial role in providing valuable information during crises, such as pandemics. The COVID-19 pandemic has created a global public health crisis, and vaccines are the key preventive measure for achieving herd immunity. However, some individuals use social media to oppose vaccines, undermining government efforts to eliminate the virus. This study introduces the “GeoCovaxTweets” dataset, consisting of 1.8 million geotagged tweets related to COVID-19 vaccines from January 2020 to November 2022, originating from 233 countries and territories. Each tweet includes state and country information, enabling researchers to analyze global spatial and temporal patterns. An extensive set of analyses are performed on the dataset to identify prominent topic clusters and explore public opinions across different vaccines and vaccination contexts. The study outlines the dataset curation methodology and provides instructions for local reproduction. We anticipate that the dataset will be valuable for crisis computing researchers, facilitating the exploration of Twitter conversations surrounding COVID-19 vaccines and vaccination, including trends, opinion shifts, misinformation, and anti-vaccination campaigns.

Narrative Characteristics in Refugee Discourse: An Analysis of American Public Opinion on the Afghan Refugee Crisis After the Taliban Takeover

The United States (U.S.) military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 was met with turmoil as the Taliban regained control of most of the country, including Kabul. These events have affected many and were widely discussed on social media, especially in the U.S. In this work, we focus on Twitter discourse regarding these events, especially potential opinion shifts over time and the effect social media posts by established U.S. legislators might have had on online public reception. To this end, we investigate two datasets on the war in Afghanistan, consisting of Twitter posts by self-identified U.S. accounts and conversation threads initiated by U.S. politicians. We find that Twitter users' discussions revolve around the Kabul airport event, President Biden's handling of the situation, and people affected by the U.S. withdrawal. Microframe analysis indicates that discourse centers the humanitarianism underlying these occurrences and politically leans liberal, focusing on care and fairness. Lastly, network analysis shows that Republicans are far more active on Twitter compared to Democrats and there is more positive sentiment than negative in their conversations.

Impact of an educational flyer and sensitization on performance-enhancement attitudes of bodybuilders in United Arab Emirates

Background A high proportion of bodybuilders use supplements to improve performance, with some turning to prohibited substances and methods. The attitudes of bodybuilders towards performance enhancement may be gauged through surveys such as the Performance Enhancement Attitude Scales (PEAS). Educational interventions are recommended as part of anti-doping measures. The objective of this project was to assess the impact of a pharmacy-led intervention using an antidoping educational flyer and the performance enhancement attitude scale to measure the attitude of bodybuilders in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Methods The PEAS eight-item short form questionnaire was administered to male bodybuilders in the UAE. The PEAS was conducted before and after administration of an educational flyer concerning the problems associated with supplement use among bodybuilders. The Wilcoxon Signed-Rank and Kruskal Wallis tests were used for data analysis. Results A total of 218 bodybuilders, who reported taking dietary supplements, filled out the survey both pre and post viewing the antidoping educational flyer. A difference was observed between the full-time professional bodybuilders, students, and part-time bodybuilders with other primary occupations (p-value &lt;0.05). In addition, PEAS score decreased among the study population for all eight PEAS items (p-value &lt;0.05). Conclusions The pharmacy-led intervention using an antidoping educational flyer and sensitization by PEAS achieved more favorable scores, suggesting a significant shift of opinion toward avoiding use of performance enhancing substances among the bodybuilder study population. More research is required on sustaining the attitude and demonstrating the impact on doping behavior.

Rethinking Two-Way Socialisation: Cultural Governance on Chinese Social Media Platforms

During the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in China, Chinese netizens engaged in protracted entanglements with the state across major platforms. They called on the Wuhan (武汉, wuhan) government to be accountable for the rapid spread of the pandemic. Interestingly, this same group of netizens had sung praises to the Chinese Communist Party's tune and lauded the extraordinary achievements of the regime before the outbreak of COVID-19, during the seventieth anniversary of the country. In fewer than six months, the national binge spiralled into poignant criticisms. Against this backdrop, this paper investigates two questions: First, why was there a marked shift in opinions towards the state? Second, what discourse did netizens adopt when expressing their discontent? We argue that the shift is indicative of two-way socialisation in the party-state's legitimacy-building process. While netizens have bought into the official narratives of a celebratory event, they hold the state to the same standard when a crisis occurs.

Changing Attitudes, Changing Coalitions: The Politics of Immigration Before and After Brexit

AbstractThe British political landscape on immigration before Brexit had a number of stable features: the public disliked migration and politicians from both main parties tended to accept (if not actively support) higher migration levels than voters preferred. This mismatch generated electoral disruption when the issue rose up the agenda—in particular through mobilisation on the radical and far right—and this initially intense public scepticism was gradually being eroded by demographic change. Brexit has fundamentally changed this landscape, triggering major shifts in both public opinion and electoral competition over immigration. In this article, the past politics of immigration in Britain are reviewed, with an explanation of how and why Brexit prompted change. The implications of the new politics of immigration for the upcoming general election and beyond are also considered.