Vote Share Research Articles

Unpacking electoral competition: campaign spending, vote distribution and turnout in Chilean mayoral elections

ABSTRACT We examine the complex relationship between campaign spending and electoral outcomes in local elections. We focus on (1) how spending influences the distribution of votes across candidates; (2) its impact on voter turnout; and (3) the differential effects of different types of campaign spending. Using the case of Chile’s 2016 mayoral elections, a candidate-level dataset, and linear regression techniques, we estimate the impact of campaign spending on the share and dynamics of votes obtained. The study reveals that an additional investment of 50 cents per voter correlates with an average 5% increase in vote share as a proportion of elegible voters. This increase is attributed to a double effect: mobilizing new voters and attracting support from competitors. The disaggregated analysis shows that radio advertising is especially impactful for campaign dissemination. These results enrich the literature on electoral strategies, campaign finance dynamics and financing regulations in multi-party systems.

Trump, China, and the Republicans

AbstractThe Republican Party has been the party most supportive of free trade in US politics for half a century. Donald Trump, the 45th US president, held a different stance from his party on free trade. We assess how Trump's China tariffs in mid‐2018 affected the performance of his party in its midterm House elections later that year. We construct a measure of each county's exposure to Trump's China tariffs and merge that with the Republican share of votes in the county. We find that the counties heavily exposed to the tariffs were more supportive of their Republican House candidates.

Research on the Reform and Transformation of Singapore's Political Election System and Political System

Singapore is an important country in Southeast Asia, which has been established for less than 60 years. In the early days of its establishment, its survival situation was very difficult. But under the struggle of the People's Action Party (PAP) led by Lee Kuan Yew and the "founding generation" of the people, Singapore has harmoniously coexisted with different ethnic and religious groups and has forcefully embarked on a rapid development path. According to data released by the World Bank, as of 2022, Singapore's per capita GDP has reached over 82000 US dollars and has been steadily increasing for many years. The People's Action Party has won every election since its founding and has been in power ever since. However, as the public increasingly enjoys the oversight and balance of the government by the opposition in parliament, the party's support rate for the election has gradually declined, and its vote share in the most recent election has dropped to 60%. The rapid development of Singapore since its founding cannot be separated from the continuity policies implemented by the fixed ruling party, which attract a large amount of foreign capital investment. However, the people's call for democracy forces the ruling party to face strong opposition in the upcoming general election. For the ruling party, more support from voters for the opposition party has entered an irreversible path. This article will explore the path of political system reform in Singapore.

Discrimination against migrants: does social capital moderate harmful effects on mental health?

Abstract The harmful mental health effects of perceived discrimination are well established. Yet, the role of regional-level social capital in mitigating these effects remains underexplored. Using data from the German Socioeconomic Panel (SOEP; 2010-2021) we apply random effects models to assess the effect of perceived discrimination on mental health (mcs subscale of the SF-12) adjusting for individual socio-demographic factors and regional-level socioeconomic deprivation. We assess interaction with general social capital (civic organisations, electoral turnout, generalised trust) and migrant-specific resources (proportion of non-nationals and share of far-right votes). We juxtapose non-refugee migrants (n = 13478) with refugees subject to mobility restrictions (n = 5558) to assess for bias introduced by selective mobility into regions. In the non-refugee sample, we confirm negative effects of frequent discrimination experiences on mcs (ß: -3.74; 95%CI: -4.39, -3.08). Moderation analyses show insignificant results for general social capital, but a negative interaction effect of proportion of non-nationals (ß: -0.71; 95%CI: -1.34, -0.08). Analyses among refugees confirm the negative effect of discrimination on mcs (ß: -6.29; 95%CI: -7.49, -5.08) and the moderating effect of the proportion of non-nationals (ß: -1.63; 95%CI: -2.78, -0.48), as well as showing a positive moderation effect for generalised trust (ß: 0.84; 95%CI: 0.11-1.57). Results demonstrate the negative implications of living in areas with a high proportion of non-nationals for migrants experiencing discrimination, which may be explained by the higher marginalisation of migrants in these areas and increased service access barriers. The absence of a moderation effect of general social capital appears to be the result of selection bias, with positive effects of generalised trust seen for refugee migrants. Key messages • Ethnic discrimination affects mental health of refugee and non-refugee migrants. • The effect of discrimination on mental health are stronger in areas with higher proportion of non-nationals.

Election-Denying Republican Candidates Underperformed in the 2022 Midterms

We combine newly collected election data with records of public denials of the results of the 2020 election to estimate the degree to which election-denying Republican candidates over- or underperformed other Republicans in 2022 in statewide and federal elections. We find that the average vote share of election-denying Republicans in statewide races was approximately 3.2 percentage points lower than their co-partisans after accounting for state-level partisanship. However, we find no such underperformance on aggregate for U.S. House elections, perhaps due to the more-partisan nature of many House districts. Together, the results suggest that the types of candidates in American elections who take more-extreme positions tend to underperform, but that these performance gaps are relatively small in the present, polarized political environment.

Cut from the same cloth? Identifying a difference between populist parties in CEE and Western Europe

ABSTRACT This study investigates whether there is a significant difference between populist parties in the West and the CEE by looking at an average trend in the characteristics of populist parties per region, based on Chapel Hill survey data from 2002 to 2019. The measurement includes party maturity, vote share, ideological and economic left-right placement. The cultural axis tendencies show similarities between populist parties across the regions. The economic dimension showed a significant difference: radical-supply parties in CEE were identified on the economic right, whereas in the West, they were identified on the economic left across estimations.

Conditional single-issue political entrepreneurship: The impact of education and attitudinal predictors on support for the Finns Party

This study explores support for the populist far-right Finns Party in the 2023 Finnish parliamentary election. In the 2023 election, the Finns Party obtained their largest historical vote share, which led to the party's inclusion in the current coalition government. Utilizing an original, nationally representative survey, we find that Finns Party support can mainly be explained by political entrepreneurship and the attraction of voters holding anti-immigrant sentiment. While we find that other attitudes had some relationship with Finns Party support, the substantive impact of these attitudes is far less substantial than are attitudes towards immigrants. Further, we find that the impact of attitudes towards immigrants and Finns Party vote choice intention is conditional on education level. Attitudes towards immigrants have a more limited impact on Finns Party support for respondents at higher education levels when compared with those at lower levels. The findings hold significance for the broader literature on populist parties, demonstrating that education can significantly diminish the translation of anti-immigration attitudes into support for far-right parties.

Assessing potential for policy feedback from renewable energy incentive programs

Climate advocates look optimistically to policy feedback as a mechanism for locking-in a decarbonization policy trajectory, but little research has examined whether and how climate legislation creates constituencies that could provide future political support. This article focuses on incentive programs supporting investment in solar PV and the potential for policy feedback through participating households. We first develop a framework of feedback potential that considers the volume and partisanship of incentive program beneficiaries and their distribution across electoral districts. We then apply the framework to New York State’s solar PV incentive program, which enabled over 140,000 households to install solar PV. We find that the number of solar PV incentive beneficiaries is positively associated with Republican vote share, suggesting potential for a strong pro-solar constituency in the pivotal, Republican-led districts. Within electoral districts, however, beneficiaries skew Democratic, raising questions about the direction of policy feedback. The results carry implications for the kind of politics that incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act may set in motion in the coming years.

Monumental effects: Confederate monuments in the Post-Reconstruction South

This paper explores the contemporaneous effects of Confederate monuments dedicated in the Post-Reconstruction South. I combine monument, election, and census data to create an election-year panel dataset of former Confederate counties between 1878–1912, then exploit the temporally staggered and geographically distributed dedication of monuments using a generalized difference-in-differences design. I find that monuments caused increases in Democratic Party vote share and decreases in voter turnout, with less robust decreases in Black population share. I find some evidence that more intense monument-building is associated with a decrease in Black lynchings. I also find varying effects based on the era of monument dedication, the intensity of monument-building, and monument characteristics. To address potential mechanisms, I present evidence that monuments were associated with increased use of famous Confederate names for children and show that decreases in voter turnout occurred exclusively in areas with larger Black population shares. Overall, my results suggest monuments promoted a distorted view of Civil War history that primarily persuaded southern whites, but also contributed to Black political suppression. The findings have implications for current debates over Confederate monuments in the United States.

The Long Decline of South Africa's ANC

ABSTRACT: Three decades after the African National Congress (ANC) won 62.7 percent of the vote that propelled Nelson Mandela into the presidency in 1994, the ANC's vote share plummeted to 40.2 percent of the national vote in South Africa's 2024 general election (down from 57.5 percent five years previously,= and well below the 50 percent predicted by preelection polls). Against thirty years of pessimistic academic literature predicting the opposite, the ANC accepted electoral defeat. But this left the ANC in a strategic quandary. Had it reached the upper 40 percent range, easy coalitions with small parties would have passed the 50 percent threshold. But with only 40 percent, the party reached back into the early years of democracy and formed a government of national unity—a multiparty coalition that left the ANC's most significant political opponents out in the cold. ANC (and national) president Cyril Ramaphosa has sidelined Africanist parties and created a coalition with decidedly centrist parties. The "broad church" which has bedeviled the ANC is at an end. Multiparty coalition government has arrived in South Africa, but questions remain: Can ANC electoral decline be arrested by this sharp move towards the center? And what, if any, substantive role is there for the ANC in the future if not?

A Study on the Effect of Special Subsidy Allocation Performance on the Re-election Vote Share of Members of National Assembly: Focusing on Retrospective Voting Theory

A Study on the Effect of Special Subsidy Allocation Performance on the Re-election Vote Share of Members of National Assembly: Focusing on Retrospective Voting Theory

Monkeys Predict US Elections.

How people vote often defies rational explanation. Physical traits sometimes sway voters more than policies do-but why? Here we show that rhesus macaques, who have no knowledge about political candidates or their policies, implicitly predict the outcomes of U.S. gubernatorial and senatorial elections based solely on visual features. Given a pair of candidate photos, monkeys spent more time looking at the loser than the winner, and this gaze bias predicted not only binary election outcomes but also the candidates' vote share. Analysis of facial features revealed candidates with more masculine faces were more likely to win an election, and vote share was a linear function of jaw prominence. Our findings endorse the idea that voters spontaneously respond to evolutionarily conserved visual cues to physical prowess and that voting behavior is shaped, in part, by ancestral adaptations shared with nonhuman primates.

Brilliant tragedy? Electoral effects of environmental protest cycle in autocracy

ABSTRACT When and how does an environmental protest cycle affect election outcomes under electoral authoritarianism? Drawing on the case of the Bashkortostan republic, a Russian ethnic region, I leverage the spatial proximity to the protest site to identify its effects on parliamentary elections. The environmental protest cycle peaked in Bashkortostan around the regional government’s decisions to extract minerals from shikhans – mountains composed of limestone. Employing a difference-in-differences (DiD) design, I show that precincts exposed to the environmental protest cycle experienced a significant drop in United Russia vote share, while voting for systemic opposition increased in the affected precincts. To explain the dynamics, I propose treating non-political protests, such as environmental ones, as an information revelation mechanism. The mechanism identified through a causal mediation analysis indicates that the environmental protest cycle conveys information on regional malperformance to voters. Their updated preferences, in turn, heavily undermine the electoral mobilizing capacity of local elites.

Partisanship in the Trump Trade War: Evidence from County-Level Crop Planting Data

Abstracts In 2018, the US–China trade war drove down the price of many US agricultural goods. While many farmers responded by planting alternative crops instead, others continued planting the low-value crops, with a high cost to their bottom line and resulting in a large number of agricultural bankruptcies. Why did some farmers disregard their own economic interests and plant low-value crops during the trade war? We argue that political preferences partially explain farmer behavior. Matching geo-referenced crop data to product-level sanctions lists from China, we calculate county-level changes in the planting of crops affected by the tariffs. We find that counties with a higher Trump vote share in the 2016 election were significantly less likely to change planting decisions due to the trade war. This suggests that partisanship may affect the economy more broadly than previously realized.

Voting and Violence in Competitive Autocracies: The Case of the 2008 Runoff Election in Zimbabwe

ABSTRACT How, when and where violence is deployed during periods of extreme regime crisis is determined by regime support expectations. Regimes use political geography to direct violence and ensure political compliance. Areas have ‘core’ high regime loyalty, ‘swing’ loyalty where government and opposition have supporters, or ‘costly’ and loyalty opposition support. During elections, regimes accommodate, suppress or force voters in each area. In runoffs, regimes use new information to increase vote share in core support areas, and use violence against suspected defecting voters. In Zimbabwe during 2008, violence patterns maximised the regime’s favourable political geography, placing typically safe communities in danger.

The political effects of intra-EU migration: Evidence from national and European elections in seven countries

This article studies the impact of immigration from Central and Eastern Europe on support for Eurosceptic parties. The analysis covers 30 national and European Parliament elections in seven Western, Northern and Southern European countries (2004 to 2019). For each election, I analyse how the local-level share of the vote for right- and left-wing Eurosceptic parties varies as a function of the levels and changes in the local-level share of Central and Eastern European immigrants from the population, controlling for the influence of relevant demographic, social and economic variables. I find that higher levels of immigration from Central and Eastern Europe are systematically related to higher voting shares cast for right-wing Eurosceptic parties at the local level in all of these countries, net of the influence of non-Western immigration, in elections for the European Parliament and in national elections as well. The effects on left-wing Euroscepticism are heterogeneous: positive in the Netherlands, Austria and Portugal, but negative in Italy, Denmark and Sweden. The effects have not diminished significantly over the past 15 years and are most visible in mid-sized localities.

Understanding community hate crimes as an incorrigible proposition: Local political attitudes, path dependence, and the ceremonious reporting of hate crime statistics

AbstractThe Hate Crime Statistics Act (HCSA) of 1990 requires the federal government to publicly release official hate crime statistics annually; the HCSA does not, however, mandate that local agencies submit hate crime reports to the government in the first place. Although research has evaluated the reporting of hate crime statistics in a dichotomous fashion (compliance vs. noncompliance), the current study suggests that the consistent and invariable reporting of zero hate crimes in a particular jurisdiction over time is unlikely and thus better conceptualized as a third response strategy: ceremonious compliance. We examine this strategy as a potentially unique institutional behavior, structured by local political and historical contexts, including discursive differences in the identification of hate crime as an important social problem, and localized histories of racial oppression. This research then uses multilevel multinomial logistic regression models to estimate variation in the likelihood of differential compliance strategies (i.e., true compliance, ceremonious compliance, noncompliance), according to several political and historical factors, including Republican vote share, location in the Confederate South, and historical lynchings. Findings reveal that political and historical contexts are important predictors of agency responses to hate crime, with a particular tendency toward ceremonious compliance in Republican‐leaning locales.

Hiding the Hate—Contextual Effects on Hate Crime Reports

This study examines the influence of local norm shifts driven by white supremacist ideology on hate crime reporting by US law enforcement agencies. Results show a substantial association, indicating a threefold increase in expected hate crimes reports in counties experiencing a spike in local hate group activity. Specifically, Republican vote share acts as a moderator, reducing reported hate crimes by 23% in counties with strong Republican support and right-wing hate group presence. Adjacent Republican counties also show a 13% reduction in expected reports, suggesting a spillover effect. Beyond local politics, a regional impact is evident; Northeastern counties with higher right-wing hate group presence show a 23% lower incidence rate. Using longitudinal data from the FBI UCR, SPLC, MIT Election Lab, and the US Census (2010–2020), through negative binomial regressions, this study highlights how right-wing hate groups can affect law enforcement’s enforcement of general civil rights depending on the local context.

Measuring the Strength of Presidential Campaign Funding, Political Party Advertising Shopping 2024

The General Election Commission has released a report on the campaign funds of the presidential and vice-presidential candidates for the 2024 election. Prabowo Subianto - Gibran Rakabuming Raka was recorded as the largest, far surpassing Ganjar Pranowo - Mahfud MD and Anies Baswedan - Muhaimin Iskandar.The advertisements were created to get the audience to increase the party's popularity. Golkar is the political party with the highest advertising spending on social media over the last three months, disbursing funds amounting to IDR 3.74 billion. This figure is quite far apart when compared to the advertising costs of other political parties. I am following in second place with a nominal advertising expenditure of IDR 785.6 million. National Awakening Party and Gerindra with advertising costs on social media amounting to IDR 195.7 million and IDR 49.18 million respectively. PSI is in first place with the most advertisements, namely 1,277 advertisements on television amounting to IDR 42.84 billion, Perindo is in second place for the party with the most advertisements on TV, IDR. 82.73 billion and 1,220 advertisements. The electability of the political parties PDIP and Gerindra compete closely in the female voter group, these two parties were both chosen by 18.8% of female voter respondents. Gerindra's electability reached 19.5%, slightly ahead of PDIP which obtained 19.3%. In the election of 5 major political parties, namely Gerindra, PDIP, Golkar, PKB and PKS, Gerindra was the party most chosen by young people under 30 years of age, with a vote share of 24.6%.

Racialized environments and syringe services program implementation: County-level factors

ObjectiveRacialized health inequities in substance use-related harms might emerge from differential access to syringe service programs (SSPs). To explore this, we examined the association between county-level racialized environments, other factors, and (1) SSP presence, and (2) per capita syringe and (3) naloxone distribution. Methods2021 US National Survey of SSP data (n=295/412;72 % response rate) was used to identify SSP presence and the sum of syringes and naloxone doses distributed in 2020 by county. Study measures included racial residential segregation (RRS; i.e., divergence and dissimilarity indexes for Black:Non-Hispanic White & Hispanic:Non-Hispanic White) and covariates (i.e., demographic proportions, urban/suburban/rural classifications, 2020 US presidential Republican vote share, and overdose mortality from 2019). We used logit Generalized Estimating Equations to determine factors associated with county-level SSP presence, and zero inflated negative binomial regression models to determine factors associated with per capita syringe and naloxone distribution. ResultsSSPs were reported in 9 % (283/3106) of US counties. SSP presence was associated with higher divergence and dissimilarity indexes, urban and suburban counties, higher opioid overdose mortality, and lower 2020 Republican presidential vote share. Per capita syringes distributed was associated with lower RRS (divergence and Hispanic:White dissimilarity), lower racially minoritized population proportions and rural counties, while per capita naloxone distribution was associated with lower Hispanic and “other” population proportions, and rural counties. ConclusionsRacialized environments are associated with SSP presence but not the scope of those programs. Preventing HIV and HCV outbreaks, and overdose deaths requires addressing community level factors that influence SSP implementation and accessibility.