Shaping Public Support Research Articles

Distributional consequences shape public support for the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism: evidence from four European countries

Abstract A carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) is a policy that increases the cost of carbon-intensive imports from countries with no or weak national carbon regulation. Proponents advocate that it helps avoid industrial relocation and protects jobs in the importing country; its critics say that it impedes free trade and drives up prices. Despite European Union legislation to introduce a CBAM policy, we find that citizens in our samples across four European countries---Germany (n=3,500), Hungary (n=2,512), Switzerland (n=2,500), and the United Kingdom (n=2,500)---have not formed clear opinions about the policy yet. Results from survey experiments, conducted over the course of 1.5~years, show a strong dislike for price increases associated with a carbon border tax, while the prospect of job protection does little to increase CBAM support---not even among subgroups most affected by import competition. However, employment effects become relevant when we prompt survey respondents to assess the effects of the carbon border tax for their country as a whole instead of for themselves as individuals. Consistent with exploratory findings that right-leaning voters express a much stronger opposition to the CBAM policy, our results speak to growing evidence of the politically polarizing nature of costly, green policies when citizens have not formed clear opinions about a policy yet.

Your Typical Criminal: Why White Americans Hate Voter Fraud

Abstract Public concerns about voter fraud are widespread and are frequently cited to justify new voting restrictions and harsh punishment for violators. But to what extent do beliefs about a perpetrator’s identity shape public support for efforts to prevent and punish voter fraud? Antipathy toward racial and ethnic groups is a strong predictor of public beliefs about voter fraud. Yet, prior studies have only been able to approximate beliefs about deviant behavior, and not specifically casting an illegal ballot. Drawing from sociology and criminology, we use a “typification” strategy that more directly measures which people are perceived as typical perpetrators of casting illegal ballots. We utilize nationally representative surveys of US voters in the 2017–2020 modules of the Cooperative Election Study to apply and empirically test the typification theory. Among white respondents, we find that the typification of racially minoritized groups such as Blacks, Latinos, Arabs, and immigrants as illegal voters is widespread and is strongly associated with beliefs about voter fraud, support for restrictive election policies, and harsh punishment of illegal voting. The pictures of likely criminals that white voters carry in their heads shape their preferences for crime policies, and this extends to the domain of voter fraud.

Factors Shaping Public Support for More Carbon Capture and Storage Projects in the United States.

This study contributes to the literature examining public acceptance of carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects in the US. The examination of factors that shape public support for CCS projects provides policymakers with insights to address public concerns, balance CCS development with public sentiments, and make informed decisions about optimal locations and timing. Based on a nationally representative survey on 1850 respondents, the study finds that in the US, there is very low familiarity (6.4%) regarding CCS technology and some limited opposition (11.5%) to increased CCS development. Regression results suggest that support for increased CCS projects in the US is influenced by perceptions of technical and social risks (leakage and community danger, respectively) but not cost of living risks, perceptions of environmental and economic benefits, familiarity with the technology, confidence in government regulations, and a desire for the US to lead in CCS. We fail to find the 'Not-in-My-Backyard' effect, and individuals supporting the development of more CCS in their states also support it at a national level. Understanding these factors helps policymakers anticipate challenges in implementing CCS initiatives and allows for the development of strategies to address concerns.

Public Opinion and Drone Exports: Evidence from a Conjoint Experiment in the United States

Abstract Drones are now a mainstay in war. Yet not all countries can manufacture armed and networked drones, heightening global demand. While some drone-manufacturing countries have adopted permissive export policies, U.S. policymakers have been more restrictive, citing international legal commitments and domestic export controls. In this study, I consider drone exports as a question of both political economy and public opinion. I derive and test hypotheses about public support for drone exports through a conjoint survey experiment administered in the United States. I find that perceived alignment between the recipient country and United States, as well as the intended use of drones, are the most important factors shaping public support for drone exports. Export control measures are less relevant to public opinion. These findings offer the first experimental evidence about public opinion for drone exports, which have implications for the political economy of security and policies relating to the export of military technologies.

The media in China–Africa public relations: Assessing China's attractiveness beyond economic development assistance

AbstractThis work explores China's African public relations and image‐building effort, focusing on Nigeria. Thus, the paper's purpose is twofold: first, to investigate whether China's conduct of public diplomacy through its soft power resource—development assistance—has effectively shaped positive Nigerian public perception of China, and second, to determine the media's role in advancing China's public diplomacy in Nigeria. Specifically, it explores the interaction of economic development assistance, media, and public relations. I do this by comparing China's foreign direct investment (FDI) in Nigeria (2010–2019) with the public's perception of the FDI's influence on the Nigerian economy (2016 and 2020) and the media's role in shaping public support toward the investments. Utilizing a range of datasets, I find that Chinese economic investment alone is insufficient to substantially shape positive Nigerian public perception of China. Within a framework of mediated public diplomacy, I demonstrate that the Chinese image‐building effort in Nigeria would likely enhance when the country links economic investments with public relations to make the investments more visible through effective media representation.Related ArticlesAyhan, Kadir Jun, and Nancy Snow. 2021. “Introduction to the Special Issue—Global Korea Scholarship: Empirical Evaluation of a Non‐Western Scholarship Program from a Public Diplomacy Perspective.” Politics & Policy 49(6): 1282–91. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12440.Hodzi, Obert, and John H. S. Åberg. 2020. “Introduction to the Special Issue: Strategic Deployment of the China Model in Africa.” Politics & Policy 48(5): 804–14. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12378.Huijgh, Ellen. 2017. “Indonesia's ‘Intermestic’ Public Diplomacy: Features and Future.” Politics & Policy 45(5): 762–92. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12221.

Do Threats or Shaming Increase Public Support for Policy Concessions? Alliance Coercion and Burden-Sharing in NATO

Abstract Existing literature suggests that alliance members can use their partners’ abandonment fears to obtain favorable concessions for themselves. However, evidence on the effectiveness of threats of abandonment as motivation for defense burden-sharing remains limited. This article uses a survey experiment conducted in Poland and Germany to assess how American signals of support and threats of abandonment shape public support for increasing their countries’ military spending. The findings suggest that threats of abandonment increase public support for higher defense spending, whereas approaches like “naming and shaming” under-contributing partners do not. However, assurances of protection did not decrease support for defense spending, and combining threats with assurances if anything increased those threats’ effects. Threats are thus most effective when they do not fundamentally undermine targets’ confidence in US protection. The findings have implications for understanding alliance politics and the utility of public pressure, and for policy debates about encouraging defense burden-sharing.

How framing impacts attitudes about electoral rights for non‐resident citizens

AbstractWidespread adoption of policies granting electoral rights to citizens living abroad has spurred vivid scholarly debates regarding the drivers and consequences of extra‐territorial enfranchisement. But, little is known about the views of resident citizens in origin countries on the matter. We address this research gap and investigate how resident citizens' attitudes to external voting rights are affected by different arguments usually salient in homeland political debates. The study draws on an original survey experiment conducted across five countries (Belgium, Finland, Poland, Portugal and Ireland) with different external voting regulations. Our results show that utilitarian arguments on the costs and benefits of extra‐territorial enfranchisement are persuasively shaping public support for the voting rights of nationals living abroad. They further suggest that resident citizens in origin countries that already grant extensive political rights to non‐resident nationals are more receptive to moral arguments of democratic inclusion regarding the recognition of such entitlements.

Understanding public support for workplace diversity and antidiscrimination policies in Europe.

Societal processes and public opinion can affect whether employers take action and which policy measures they choose to boost diversity, equal opportunities and inclusion, and to reduce discrimination in the workplace. Yet, public opinion regarding workplace diversity initiatives (other than affirmative action) has so far received little scholarly attention, especially in Europe. Consequently, we have very little evidence about how the general public feels about workplace diversity policies - particularly those that are more common or more often discussed in Europe - and about which factors shape public support for these workplace diversity initiatives. Yet, a better understanding of the patterns and antecedents of citizens' attitudes toward workplace diversity policies is of clear scientific and practical importance. Against this background, this study sheds light on public attitudes toward three different, commonly applied types of workplace diversity policies, and examines which individual-level and - innovatively - national-level conditions shape public support. To do so, we bring together insights from various different and so far largely disconnected strands of research and a range of theoretical perspectives. We use large-scale, representative survey data from two pooled waves of the Eurobarometer, covering 38,009 citizens across 26 European countries. We enrich these data with information on national-level income inequality as well as countries' labor market and antidiscrimination legislation and policies, obtained from Eurostat and the Migrant Integration Policy Index (MIPEX). Results show significant differences in public support across the three types of policies, with the strongest support for diversity training, followed closely by monitoring recruitment procedures, whereas support for monitoring workforce composition is clearly lower. This is in line with the idea that support tends to be lower for more preferential and prescriptive workplace policies. Furthermore, we find that, in addition to individual-level factors - particularly gender, ethnic minority group membership, personal experiences with discrimination, prejudice, intergroup contact and political orientation - national-level conditions are important antecedents of public support for workplace diversity policies. That is, differences in public attitudes regarding such policies are also shaped by country-level income inequalities, people's perceptions of how widespread discrimination and unequal opportunities are in society, and national-level laws and policies to fight unequal opportunities.

How national models of solidarity shaped public support for policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis in 2020–2021

How do national models of solidarity shape public support for distinctive policy responses to social and economic crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic? We analyze American and German policy responses from March 2020 to June 2021 across a number of economic and social policy domains and identify path-dependent institutional contingencies in both countries despite the same crisis experience. Drawing from 10 different sources of public opinion data, we then triangulate the pandemic's effects on public support for individualized and collectively oriented policy responses. Aside from emotional rally-to-the-flag effects, the policy-specific public reactions are consistent with institutional and normative predicates of the two political economies: the German public seems to be supportive of aggressive policies to combat inequality, though in ways that privilege established social collectivities and groups, whereas in the U.S., we only see moderate evidence of support for time-limited and individually-focused measures designed to remain in place only for the duration of the crisis.

Effect of message framing on support for a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in Australia: a cross-sectional survey analysis.

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes are present in many countries with evidence that they are effective in decreasing purchases of SSBs. However, in Australia where SSB consumption per capita is high, and calls for an SSB tax are frequent, there is no SSB tax and policymakers have stated their lack of support for such a tax. We examined whether political party voting preference and sociodemographic factors affect individuals' support for an SSB tax, and whether message framing affects this support. A nationally representative sample of 1519 Australian adults was recruited for an online experimental survey. Three persuasive frames and one control frame were randomly provided to participants and measures of agreement towards an SSB tax were assessed. Sociodemographic factors and political party preference were also captured. Message framing had minimal effect on the level of support for the tax. However, participants who received the 'supportive of food and drink companies frame' showed the highest positive feelings towards the tax, and participants in rural areas had higher levels of support for an SSB tax when receiving the 'protecting teenagers' frame. Participants who voted for conservative (right-leaning) parties and for Labour (a centre-left party) had similar levels of support towards the tax, which was considerably lower than Greens voters. Undecided voters had the lowest levels of support for the tax, and the frames had limited impact on them. These findings highlight the potential role of message framing in shaping public support for an SSB tax in Australia, particularly in the context of voting preference and sociodemographic factors.

Do “Amor duro” à “Briga de rua”: a batalha de Garret Hardin e Cordelia S. May pelo controle populacional e a eugenia na virada do milênio

ABSTRACT This essay draws on epistolary documentation, conference proceedings, and U.S. government reports to analyze the correspondence of right-wing “conservative” activists Garrett Hardin and Cordelia S. May, focusing on their obsession with population control and eugenic principles as solutions to the growing ecological disasters of the 1960s through the early 2000s. These individuals engaged in negotiations and made decisions that helped shape public support for draconian population control policies and practices based on eugenics. These sources provide new insights into how a group of influential intellectuals, financiers, and self-proclaimed environmentalists worked to build a white, elite, heteronormative, and empowered smart society for the future, despite their inability to keep population control on the national agenda.

Should We Defund “Bad Police” or Reform “Bad Policing”? Examining Person-Centered and Act-Based Moral Evaluations of Police and Policing Policy Preferences

Despite widespread calls to defund or reform police, little research has explored the factors shaping public support for these proposals. We draw from person-centered morality theory to argue that person-centered moral evaluations of police (moral character beliefs) drive support for defunding police, while act-based moral evaluations of police (procedural justice) drive support for reforming police. Using data from a national survey ( N = 1,225), exploratory factor analyses showed that these moral evaluations of police were empirically distinct. OLS regression results indicated that perceptions of “bad police” (negative person-centered evaluations) more strongly predicted support for defunding policies (abolition and reduced funding of police), while perceptions of “bad policing” (negative act-based evaluations) more strongly predicted support for due process and racial justice reforms.

State-by-state energy-water-land-health impacts of the US net-zero emissions goal

As decisionmakers at various scales begin to design strategies to implement the US net-zero goal, a holistic understanding of its broader economic and sustainability implications at subnational scales is important to shape public support and facilitate implementation. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to explore four different pathways toward the US net-zero goal and investigate their energy-water-land-health implications at the state level. We show that achieving the net-zero goal implies significant capital turnover (170–200 billion USD/year capital investment and 16–29 billion USD/year stranded assets in the power sector), reduced water withdrawal (120–210 km3/year), avoided air pollution damages (220–300 billion USD/year), and expanded forests (300–500 thousand km2). However, the economic and sustainability implications of achieving the net-zero goal at the state-level may not be correlated to a state's contribution to national emission reductions. Our study lays the foundations for a deeper understanding of the broader implications of the US net-zero goal to facilitate cost-effective and environmentally sustainable transitions toward that goal.

The ideological roots of the activation paradigm: How justice preferences and unemployment attributions shape public support for demanding activation policies

AbstractResearch either focused on self‐interest or left–right ideology to explain support for demanding active labour market policies (ALMPs). This article focuses instead on how attitudes towards these policies are rooted in the underlying policy paradigm. We link attitudes towards ALMPs to two pillars of the activation paradigm: distributive justice and unemployment attributions. Structural equational modeling is employed on the Belgian National Election Study data of 2014 (N = 1901). Individuals supporting the principles of need and equity and who blame the unemployed are more in favour of demanding activation. These frameworks and hence the policy paradigm thus have substantial predictive power.

What difference does the framing of a crisis make to European Union solidarity?

Does the framing of crises shape public support for inter-state solidarity? We focus on three dimensions that have been salient in the characterisation of European Union crises and may affect public support for solidarity more generally: (a) how country-specific or common a crisis is; (b) whether policymakers are seen as responsible for the crisis or not; and (c) how existential or manageable the threat posed by a crisis appears. We employ a pre-registered factorial vignette experiment conducted in 15 European Union countries to assess how characterising a hypothetical crisis affects voter support for fiscal and financial solidarity. Our results show that exposure to different crises frames shapes public support for risk-sharing in the European Union. Changes in solidaristic attitudes vary significantly with the means of fiscal risk-sharing proposed.

Does partisanship shape public support for suspending U.S. federal gas tax? A survey experiment

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the national average gasoline price in the U.S. rose sharply. In response, President Biden wanted Congress to temporarily suspend the 18.4 cents per gallon federal gasoline tax. However, critics pointed out that gas tax suspension could: (1) undermine U.S. climate policy goals by encouraging the use of gasoline cars, (2) threaten U.S. national security by providing additional oil revenue to the Russian government for expanding its military capabilities, and (3) undermine the economy by defunding federal highway infrastructure. To systematically test how these critiques influenced public support for gas tax suspension, we administered an online survey experiment in May 2022 to a representative sample of U.S. respondents (N = 1,705). We found that in spite of high inflation during the months when the survey was conducted, in the aggregate, national security and the economy frames reduced public support for the gas tax suspension while the climate frame had no such effect. Yet, at the disaggregated level we find important partisan differences. When we interact treatment frames with respondents’ party identification, the national security and the economy frames reduced public support for the gas tax suspension among Republicans only, while the climate frame reduced public support among Democrats only.

How morality and efficiency shape public support for minimum wages

We use a survey-based experiment to examine public support for minimum wages. To start, we elicit respondents moral assessments of two labor market systems: one with a minimum wage and one without. We find that gender and political affiliation are the strongest predictors of moral assessments, where men and Republicans find the lack of a minimum wage less problematic. Next, we present four pairs of hypothetical employment outcomes and ask respondents to “vote” for their preferred system. Estimating the trade-off between moral attitudes and unemployment, we find the average respondent is willing to tolerate a large increase in unemployment, 4.7 percentage points, before voting against the minimum wage system. Our point estimates, however, mask considerable polarization: 42% always choose the minimum wage system and 27% always choose the no minimum wage system. Overall, Republicans are 14.5 percentage points less likely to choose the minimum wage system, though they exhibit little difference in willingness to tolerate additional unemployment. Notably, racial and gender equity considerations matter. The average respondent is almost 20 percentage points less likely to choose the minimum wage system when told minorities and females are disproportionately affected. Finally, the average respondent is 7 percentage points less likely to support a system featuring a minimum wage of $15 relative to $10.10 or $7.25, all else equal, suggesting that support for minimum wages may not be driven by a desire to maximize aggregate income for low-wage workers.

Politics of problem definition: Comparing public support of climate change mitigation policies using machine learning

AbstractPublic support is a key contributor to successful policy adoption and implementation. Given the urgency of climate change mitigation, scholars have explored various determinants that affect public support for climate change mitigation policy. However, the relative decisiveness of these factors in shaping public support is insufficiently examined. Therefore, we deploy interpretable machine learning to understand which factors, among many previously investigated, are most decisive for structuring public support for various climate change mitigation policies. In this paper, we particularly look at the decisiveness of problem definition for shaping public support among various factors. Using U.S national survey data, we find that how individuals define the issue of climate change is more decisive for structuring public support for promoting renewable energy and regulating pollutants to mitigate the risks associated with climate change. However, the results also indicate that the most decisive factors associated with public support vary depending on the types of mitigation policy. We conclude that different strategies should be utilized to increase public support for various climate change mitigation policy options. Our findings contribute to a scholarly understanding of the specific politics of problem definition in the context of environmental and climate change policy.

Pour (tear) gas on fire? Violent confrontations and anti-government backlash

AbstractHow do voters in a developed economy react to political violence at the ballot box? Most of the current literature suggests that a social movement turning violent dampens its support. To this end, we examine the effect of violent clashes and indiscriminate state repression on Hong Kong's 2019 municipal election. Using original geocoded data, we proxy violence and repression by the frequency of police shooting tear gas rounds at protesters. Despite the movement turning in part violent, the presence of indiscriminate state repression reduces regime support. We offer evidence that repression de-mobilized pro-regime voters. We discuss possible explanations behind our findings and how the specificity of political violence may matter in shaping public support in protest movements.

Considered effective? How policy evaluations and threat perceptions affect support for surveillance in the context of terrorism

AbstractSurveillance policies aimed at combating terrorism and improving public security can also lead to constraints on civil liberties. In view of this trade‐off between the potential benefits and risks of surveillance, it is particularly important to study how effectiveness considerations shape public support for surveillance. We argue that effectiveness perceptions enhance policy support, but that the manner in which citizens view policy effectiveness depends on their perceptions of threats related to terrorism and to violations of civil liberties. Using data from a factorial survey experiment in Germany, we show that policy effectiveness is the most relevant predictor of citizens' support for different surveillance measures. Moreover, we find evidence that depending on the scope of surveillance, respondents perceiving threats to their liberty rely much less heavily on policy effectiveness as a criterion for evaluating policies, compared to those whose threat perception is low.Related ArticlesAwan, Imran. 2012.“‘I Am a Muslim Not an Extremist’: How the Prevent Strategy Has Constructed a ‘Suspect’ Community.” Politics & Policy 40(6): 1158–85. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2012.00397.x.Doan, Alesha E., and Corinne Schwarz. 2020. “Father Knows Best: ‘Protecting’ Women through State Surveillance and Social Control in Anti‐Abortion Policy.” Politics & Policy 48(1): 6–37. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12337.Jenkins‐Smith, Hank C., and Kerry G. Herron. 2009. “Rock and a Hard Place: Public Willingness to Trade Civil Rights and Liberties for Greater Security.” Politics & Policy 37(5): 1095–129. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2009.00215.x/abstract.