Sexual Violence Risk Assessment Research Articles

Validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in a community sexual offense outpatient setting.

The present study examined the convergent, structural, and predictive properties of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO) scores in a sample of 200 men on community supervision for sexual offenses, attending forensic community outpatient services and followed up an average 8.6 years. The VRS-SO and two additional dynamic sexual recidivism risk measures-STABLE 2007 and Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS)-were coded archivally from clinic files; Static-99R ratings were extracted. Recidivism data were captured from Royal Canadian Mounted Police records. VRS-SO static, dynamic, and total scores demonstrated expected patterns of convergence with total and subscale scores of the risk measures. Moreover, a confirmatory factor analysis of the VRS-SO dynamic item scores demonstrated acceptable model fit for a correlated three-factor solution consistent with prior confirmatory factor analyses. Discrimination analyses demonstrated that VRS-SO dynamic and total scores and STABLE 2007 scores had large prediction effects for 5-year sexual recidivism (area under the curves [AUCs] = .71-.72) while SOTIPS had a medium effect for this outcome (AUC = .67); the measures yielded medium to large effects for nonsexual recidivism. Cox regression survival analyses demonstrated that VRS-SO dynamic, Sexual Deviance factor, and SOTIPS scores each incrementally predicted sexual recidivism controlling for Static-99R or VRS-SO static factor scores. VRS-SO calibration analyses demonstrated that expected or predicted 5-year sexual recidivism rates showed generally close correspondence to the rates predicted or observed in the present community sample. Results support the psychometric properties of the VRS-SO, a sexual violence risk assessment and treatment planning measure, to a community outpatient sample. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Dynamic sexual offense risk assessment using the VRS-SO with indeterminate sentenced men

Indeterminate detention (ID) is a high stakes sanction reserved for exceptionally high risk-high need (HRHN) persons who are deemed to pose an undue risk to public safety. It is one of the most extreme measures that is routinely taken by justice systems to manage sexual violence risk and prevent sexual and violent recidivism. Naturally, risk assessment is most frequently employed as a mechanism to keep dangerous people in custody; but seldom is risk assessment viewed as a possible ticket out for men with an ID designation who have made substantive risk changes and whose risk can be safely managed in the community. This article features applications of a dynamic sexual violence risk assessment and treatment planning tool, the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO), with ID individuals and other HRHN men, to assess risk in a dynamic manner to inform risk management efforts and release decisions. VRS-SO data on an ID sample are presented along with clinical illustrations of dynamic risk assessment. Several propositions are made with supporting data from VRS-SO normative research with treated sexual offending samples regarding the use of dynamic tools with ID men and the perils and pitfalls of relying solely on static measures. Ultimately, dynamic risk instruments can be used to track progress and monitor risk change over multiple assessments to inform release and reintegration decisions with ID persons. In this regard, dynamic assessment has the potential to help, rather than hinder, reintegration of ID sentenced persons and can inform safe, fair, and humane decisions.

Sexual Violence Risk Assessment With Indigenous Men: Context, Controversies, and Current Findings.

We review the issues, controversies, and main findings from the sexual violence risk assessment literature with Indigenous men. An argument is presented for the incorporation of structured and validated risk assessment measures as part of a comprehensive assessment to inform risk management and the prevention of sexual violence. Extant research demonstrates that Canadian Indigenous men convicted for sexual offenses tend to score higher on sexual violence risk measures and to have higher rates of sexual and violent recidivism. Established static and dynamic tools, however, have moderate predictive accuracy for sexual and violent recidivism and changes in risk from treatment or other change agents are associated with decreases in recidivism. Static-99R and the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version demonstrate acceptable properties of calibration for indigenous men with respect to sexual recidivism, although Indigenous men continue to show higher rates of violent recidivism associated with risk scores. The extant literature provides support for the discrimination and calibration properties of established static and dynamic sexual violence risk tools with Indigenous men; use of a dynamic tool is critical to inform risk management interventions and evaluate change. Risk measures are one component of a comprehensive and integrated assessment process that incorporates responsivity considerations, conducted in a culturally competent, ethical, and humane manner.

High-psychopathy men with a history of sexual offending have protective factors too: But are these risk relevant and can they change in treatment?

Psychopathy is a serious personality disorder reputed for resistance to correctional and forensic mental health treatment and synonymous with being high risk for different recidivism outcomes; it is not readily associated with an abundance of positive qualities or protective factors. Research has yet to examine the presence of protective factors as a function of psychopathy in correctional samples and the risk-relevance of protective factors for high-psychopathy men. The present study examined the association of psychopathy and protective factors to recidivism in a Canadian sample of 461 men who attended sexual-offense-specific treatment and followed up nearly 10-year postrelease. The Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; Hare, The Hare psychopathy-checklist-revised, 1991; Hare, Manual for the revised psychopathy checklist, 2003) and the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF; de Vogel et al., The International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, 2011, 10, 171) were rated from institutional files and recidivism data were obtained from official criminal records. PCL-R scores were inversely related to SAPROF scores; however, even men scoring high on the PCL-R made significant pre-post changes on protective factors. PCL-R and SAPROF scores predicted sexual, violent, and general recidivism; treatment-related changes in protective factors, controlling for PCL-R score, were significantly associated with decreased violent recidivism. Protective factors can and do change with purposive change agents (e.g., correctional treatment), even among individuals with substantial psychopathic traits. The role and risk relevance of protective factors in sexual violence risk assessment and management with high psychopathy clientele are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Incremental Contributions of Static and Dynamic Sexual Violence Risk Assessment: Integrating Static-99R and VRS-SO Common Language Risk Levels

We examined the incremental contributions of static and dynamic sexual violence risk assessment in a multisite sample of 1,289 men treated for sexual offending. The study extends validation work that established new risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO), using the risk assessment common language (CL) framework. Different rates of sexual recidivism were observed at different thresholds of static risk (Static-99R) as a function of dynamic risk and treatment change, particularly for men who were actuarially above or well above average risk (Levels IVa and IVb, respectively). A framework integrating CL risk levels for Static-99R and VRS-SO dynamic scores into overall CL risk levels is presented. We discuss implications for dynamic sexual violence risk assessment regarding the language used for risk communication and the importance of dynamic risk instruments in sexual violence evaluations, particularly when credible agents of risk change may be present.

Interrater Reliability and Concurrent Validity of the Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol for Korean Sexual Offenders: A Field Study.

The Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol (RSVP) is a set of structured professional judgment guidelines for conducting management-oriented sexual violence risk assessments. We investigated the interrater reliability (IRR) and the concurrent validity of the RSVP in the Republic of Korea. A total of 32 experienced and specially trained correctional psychologists in teams of four used an authorized translation of the RSVP to independently assess 47 adult male sexual offenders through a case history review and interviews. IRR, as indexed using intraclass correlations coefficients, was typically good to excellent for rating the presence and relevance of risk factors. Concurrent validity was also good, as indexed by correlations between RSVP ratings and total scores on two instruments for assessing risk for sexual violence: the Hallym Assessment Guide for Sex Offender Risk and Static-99R. Implications for the use of the RSVP by professionals and agencies, both within and outside Korea, are discussed.

Utility of the MMPI-2-RF in Sexual Violence Risk Assessment

The prediction of sexual violence recidivism is an important societal concern and has been the frequent subject of psychological research. Although research has supported the use of the MMPI-2-RF in violence risk assessment, there is a paucity of research related to sexual violence risk assessment. The present study evaluated the convergent validity of the MMPI-2-RF with measures used in sexual violence risk assessment evaluations (i.e., the Static 99, SVR-20, and PCL:SV) in a sample of German inmates in a psychological treatment setting. Analyses generally showed an expected pattern of results, with MMPI-2-RF externalizing scales having the strongest associations with measures of violence and sexual violence risk assessment. Indeed, although smaller associations were found with Static-99 scales, there were moderate to large associations between SVR-20 and PCL:SV scores and MMPI-2-RF externalizing scales. Taken together, these findings suggest that, although the MMPI-2-RF does not appear to be associated with specific static risk factors (e.g., previous victim qualities, type of sexual offenses), the externalizing scales on the MMPI-2-RF are useful in examining more dynamic factors (e.g., those assessed on the SVR-20) in conjunction with other dynamic and static risk tools (e.g., SVR-20, Static-99) in sexual violence risk evaluations.

Evaluating Change in Men Who Have Sexually Offended: Linkages to Risk Assessment and Management

We provide a review and synthesis of the sexual offense treatment change literature with implications for dynamic sexual violence risk assessment and management. An argument is presented for the need for a dynamic approach in research and practice, and that for change to be prognostic, such changes need to be risk relevant and to come from credible change agents. Extant research demonstrates that changes on psychologically meaningful dimensions of risk and need (e.g., sexual deviance; attitudes and cognitions; anger, aggression, and hostility) tend to be associated with reductions in sexual and other forms of recidivism; however, changes in domains less germane to risk and need tend not to be (e.g., empathy, mental health and well-being). Formalized dynamic sexual offense risk measures can be administered at multiple time points to reliably measure changes in sexual violence risk. Change information can then be used systematically to adjust risk appraisals. The extant literature supports the dynamic nature of sexual violence risk. Working toward the routine assessment of change with psychometrically sound measures, and integrating this information into risk management interventions, can not only improve lives and reduce sexual violence but is an ethical and human responsibility.

Interrater reliability, concurrent validity, and predictive validity of the risk for sexual violence protocol.

This study empirically evaluated risk judgments made using the Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol (RSVP; Hart et al., 2003), a widely used set of structured professional guidelines for assessing and managing sexual violence risk. Based on evaluations of other structured professional judgment guidelines, we hypothesized that judgments made using the RSVP would demonstrate good interrater reliability, concurrent validity, and predictive validity. Based on file review, research assistants made ratings using the RSVP and two commonly used actuarial tools for sexual violence risk assessment in a sample of 100 adult male sexual offenders who successfully completed a community-based sex offender treatment program. Recidivism information was obtained from official records 10 years after treatment completion. With respect to interrater reliability, judgments of the presence and relevance of individual risk factors ranged from moderate to almost perfect, and those for composite scores reflecting the sum of these ratings were almost perfect. Interrater reliability for integrative summary risk ratings was substantial to almost perfect. Regarding concurrent validity, the findings indicated that judgments made using the RSVP had moderate to large and statistically significant correlations with scores on the actuarial tools. Finally, with respect to predictive validity, RSVP presence total scores and summary risk ratings were predictive of new sexual violence over the follow-up, and the magnitude of their predictive validity effect sizes was similar to that of scores on the actuarial tools. The findings supported the potential utility of the RSVP in practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in sexual violence risk assessments: Updated risk categories and recidivism estimates from a multisite sample of treated sexual offenders.

The present study sought to develop updated risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), a sexual offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The overarching purpose was to increase the clarity and accuracy of communicating risk assessment information that includes a systematic incorporation of new information (i.e., change) to modify risk estimates. Four treated samples of sexual offenders with VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and Static-99R ratings were combined with a minimum follow-up period of 10-years postrelease (N = 913). Logistic regression was used to model 5- and 10-year sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism estimates across 6 different regression models employing specific risk and change score information from the VRS-SO and/or Static-99R. A rationale is presented for clinical applications of select models and the necessity of controlling for baseline risk when utilizing change information across repeated assessments. Information concerning relative risk (percentiles) and absolute risk (recidivism estimates) is integrated with common risk assessment language guidelines to generate new risk categories for the VRS-SO. Guidelines for model selection and forensic clinical application of the risk estimates are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record

Supplemental Material for Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense Version in Sexual Violence Risk Assessments: Updated Risk Categories and Recidivism Estimates From a Multisite Sample of Treated Sexual Offenders

Supplemental Material for Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense Version in Sexual Violence Risk Assessments: Updated Risk Categories and Recidivism Estimates From a Multisite Sample of Treated Sexual Offenders

Use of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender Version and the Stable 2007 to assess dynamic sexual violence risk in a sample of treated sexual offenders.

The present study provides an examination of dynamic sexual violence risk featuring the Stable-2007 (Hanson, Harris, Scott, & Helmus, 2007) and the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003) in a Canadian sample of 180 federally incarcerated sexual offenders who attended a high-intensity sexual offender treatment program. Archival pretreatment and posttreatment ratings were completed on the VRS-SO and Stable-2007, and recidivism data were obtained from official criminal records, with the sample being followed up approximately 10 years postrelease. VRS-SO pre- and posttreatment dynamic scores demonstrated significant predictive accuracy for sexual, nonsexual violent, any violent (including sexual), and general recidivism, while Stable-2007 pre- and posttreatment scores were significantly associated with the latter 3 outcomes; these associations were maintained after controlling for the Static-99R (Helmus, Thornton, Hanson, & Babchishin, 2012). Finally, significant pre-post differences, amounting to approximately three quarters of a standard deviation, were found on Stable-2007 and VRS-SO scores. VRS-SO change scores were significantly associated with reductions in nonsexual violent, any violent, and general recidivism (but not sexual recidivism) after controlling for baseline risk or pretreatment score, while Stable-2007 change scores did not significantly predict reductions in any recidivism outcomes. Applications of these tools within the context of dynamic sexual violence risk assessment incorporating the use of change information are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record

Predictive validity of the HCR-20 for violent and non-violent sexual behaviour in a secure mental health service.

Violent and non-violent sexual behaviour is a fairly common problem among secure mental health service patients, but specialist sexual violence risk assessment is time-consuming and so performed infrequently. We aimed to establish whether a commonly used violence risk assessment tool, the Health Clinical Risk management 20(HCR-20), has predictive validity specifically for inappropriate sexual behaviour. A pseudo-prospective cohort design was used for a study in the adult wards of a large provider of specialist secure mental health services. Routine clinical team HCR-20 assessments were extracted from records, and incidents involving inappropriate sexual behaviour were recorded for the 3 months following assessment. Of 613 patients, 104 (17%) had engaged in at least one inappropriate sexual behaviour; in 65 (10.6%), the sexual act was violent. HCR-20 total score, clinical and risk management subscales, predicted violent and non-violent sexual behaviour. The negative predictive value of the HCR-20 for inappropriate sexual behaviour was over 90%. Prediction of violent sexual behaviour may be regarded as well within the scope of the HCR-20 as a structured professional judgement tool to aid violence risk prediction, but we found that it also predicts behaviours that may be of concern but fall below the violence threshold. High negative predictive values suggest that HCR-20 scores may have some utility for screening out patients who do not require more specialist assessment for inappropriate sexual behaviour. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sexual offending runs in families: A 37-year nationwide study.

Background: Sexual crime is an important public health concern. The possible causes of sexual aggression, however, remain uncertain.Methods: We examined familial aggregation and the contribution of genetic and environmental factors to sexual crime by linking longitudinal, nationwide Swedish crime and multigenerational family registers. We included all men convicted of any sexual offence (N = 21 566), specifically rape of an adult (N = 6131) and child molestation (N = 4465), from 1973 to 2009. Sexual crime rates among fathers and brothers of sexual offenders were compared with corresponding rates in fathers and brothers of age-matched population control men without sexual crime convictions. We also modelled the relative influence of genetic and environmental factors to the liability of sexual offending.Results: We found strong familial aggregation of sexual crime [odds ratio (OR) = 5.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.5–5.9] among full brothers of convicted sexual offenders. Familial aggregation was lower in father-son dyads (OR = 3.7, 95% CI = 3.2–4.4) among paternal half-brothers (OR = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.5–2.9) and maternal half-brothers (OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.2–2.4). Statistical modelling of the strength and patterns of familial aggregation suggested that genetic factors (40%) and non-shared environmental factors (58%) explained the liability to offend sexually more than shared environmental influences (2%). Further, genetic effects tended to be weaker for rape of an adult (19%) than for child molestation (46%).Conclusions: We report strong evidence of familial clustering of sexual offending, primarily accounted for by genes rather than shared environmental influences. Future research should possibly test the effectiveness of selective prevention efforts for male first-degree relatives of sexually aggressive individuals, and consider familial risk in sexual violence risk assessment.

Sexual Violence Risk Assessment: An Investigation of the Interrater Reliability of Professional Judgments Made Using the Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol

The RSVP is a set of structured professional judgment guidelines for assessing risk of sexual violence. We investigated the interrater reliability (IRR) of judgments made using the RSVP in a multidisciplinary forensic-clinical context. Raters were 28 forensic mental health and intellectual disability professionals with diverse training and experience. They used the RSVP to evaluate six case vignettes that varied with respect to offense characteristics, clinical complexity, and level of risk. The IRR of ratings for individual risk factors was generally fair. There was a good level of interrater reliability on Summary Judgments and Supervision Recommendations. Interrater reliability was highest when used by professionals who were highly trained in forensic risk assessment. On average, professionals with lower levels of specialist training agreed less with their colleagues and experts, and provided higher estimations of sexual violence risk. Lower levels of agreement were found in cases with moderate levels of complexity and risk. The RSVP can be used to make judgments of risk with adequate levels of interrater reliability. However, this is dependent on the training and expertise of professionals who use the tool. Methodological strengths and limitations are considered, followed by a discussion of implications for training, practice, and future research.

A Literature Review of the Utility of Selected Violence and Sexual Violence Risk Assessment Instruments

The rationale for this article is to comprehensively outline and describe the strengths and weaknesses of various risk assessment instruments/tools relevant to the evaluation of sexually violent and violent offenders. The author will briefly discuss ethical obligations the forensic mental health professional (FMHP) must consider when conducting risk assessments.