Risk Assessment For Sexual Offense Recidivism Research Articles

Protective factors in the prediction of criminal outcomes for youth with sexual offenses using tools developed for adults and adolescents: Tests of direct effects and moderation of risk.

Interest in protective factors in risk assessment work with adjudicated populations is increasing and evidence suggests that protective factors in structured professional judgment (SPJ) tools predict the absence of one or more types of recidivism with some evidence also of incremental validity in recidivism-desistance prediction models with risk scales. But, there is little evidence of interactions, demonstrated using formal tests of moderation, between scores on risk- and protective factor-focused applied assessment tools, despite the documentation of interactive protective effects with nonadjudicated populations. In this study, with 273 justice-involved male youth and a fixed 3-year follow-up, direct effects of medium size were found for sexual recidivism, violent (including sexual) recidivism, and any new offense with totals for tools developed for adult offending populations (modified versions of the actuarial risk-focused Static-99 and the SPJ protective factor-focused Structured Assessment of PROtective Factor [SAPROF]) and tools developed for adolescent offending populations (the actuarial risk-focused Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II [JSORRAT-II] and the SPJ protective factor-focused DASH-13). As well, incremental validity and interactive protective effects, in the small-to-medium size range, were found for the prediction of violent (including sexual) recidivism using various combinations of these tools. The value-added information provided by strengths-focused tools indicated by these findings suggest their inclusion in comprehensive risk assessments in applied practice has promise for improving prediction and also intervention and management planning with justice-involved youth. The findings also highlight the need for further research on developmental considerations and practical questions about how to integrate strengths with risks to inform such work empirically. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Validity and Reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Youth Sexual Offense Version.

The present study examined the validity and reliability of a youth sexual offense risk assessment and treatment planning tool, the Violence Risk Scale-Youth Sexual Offense Version (VRS-YSO), on a sample of 102 court-adjudicated youth referred to assessment and/or treatment outpatient services followed up an average of 11.7 years in the community. VRS-YSO scores demonstrated "good" to "excellent" interrater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficients [ICCs] = .64-.83). Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of the static and dynamic items identified three latent dimensions consistent with the extant risk literature labeled Sexual Deviance, Antisocial Tendencies, and Family Concerns. VRS-YSO scores showed strong patterns of convergence with scores from the Estimate of Risk for Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR), Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II), and the Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II (J-SORRAT-II). VRS-YSO scores, in turn, demonstrated moderate to high predictive accuracy for sexual, violent (sexual and nonsexual), and general recidivism (significant areas under curve [AUCs] = .67-.88). Examination of pre-posttreatment change data on the subset of youth who attended treatment services found VRS-YSO change scores to be significantly associated with reductions in general recidivism, but not other recidivism outcomes. Future research and clinical applications of the VRS-YSO in youth sexual offense assessment and treatment planning are discussed.

Cross-Validation of the JSORRAT-II in Iowa.

The predictive validity of the Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II (JSORRAT-II) was evaluated using an exhaustive sample of 11- to 17-year-old male juveniles who offended sexually (JSOs) between 2000 and 2006 in Iowa (n = 529). The validity of the tool in predicting juvenile sexual recidivism was significant (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = .70, 99% confidence interval [CI] = [.60, .81], d = 0.70). Non-significant predictive validity coefficients were observed for the prediction of non-sexual forms of recidivism. Additional analyses were undertaken to test hypotheses about the tool's performance with various subsamples. The age of the JSO at the time of the index sexual offense and time at risk outside secure facility placements interacted significantly with JSORRAT-II scores to predict juvenile sexual recidivism. The implications of these findings for practice and research on the validation of risk assessment tools are discussed.

Development and Validation of the Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool–II

This article describes the development and initial validation of the Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II (JSORRAT-II). Potential predictor variables were extracted from case file information for an exhaustive sample of 636 juveniles in Utah who sexually offended between 1990 and 1992. Simultaneous and hierarchical logistic regression analyses were used to identify the group of variables that was most predictive of subsequent juvenile sexual recidivism. A simple categorical scoring system was applied to these variables without meaningful loss of accuracy in the development sample for any sexual (area under the curve [AUC] = .89) and sexually violent (AUC = .89) juvenile recidivism. The JSORRAT-II was cross-validated on an exhaustive sample of 566 juveniles who had sexually offended in Utah in 1996 and 1997. Reliability of scoring the tool across five coders was quite high (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] = .96). Relative to the development sample, however, there was considerable shrinkage in the indices of predictive accuracy for any sexual (AUC = .65) and sexually violent (AUC = .65) juvenile recidivism. The reduced level of accuracy was not explained by severity of the index sexual offense, time at risk, or missing data. Capitalization on chance and other explanations for the possible reduction in predictive accuracy are explored, and potential uses and limitations of the tool are discussed.

Prediction of adolescent sexual reoffending: A meta-analysis of the J-SOAP-II, ERASOR, J-SORRAT-II, and Static-99.

Several risk assessment tools, including the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (Prentky & Righthand, 2003), the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (Worling & Curwen, 2001), the Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II (Epperson, Ralston, Fowers, DeWitt, & Gore, 2006), and the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999), have been used to assess reoffense risk among adolescents who have committed sexual offenses. Given that research on these tools has yielded somewhat mixed results, we empirically synthesized 33 published and unpublished studies involving 6,196 male adolescents who had committed a sexual offense. We conducted two separate meta-analyses, first with correlations and then with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs). Total scores on each of the tools significantly predicted sexual reoffending, with aggregated correlations ranging from .12 to .20 and aggregated AUC scores ranging from .64 to .67. However, in many cases heterogeneity across studies was moderate to high. There were no significant differences between tools, and although the Static-99 was developed for adults, it achieved similar results as the adolescent tools. Results are compared to other meta-analyses of risk tools used in the area of violence risk assessment and in other fields.

Assessing Risk for Violence in Adolescents Who Have Sexually Offended

As the youth justice system has evolved, clinicians have been increasingly asked to make judgments about the likelihood that a youth who has committed a sexual offense will reoffend. However, there is an absence of well-validated tools to assist with these judgments. This study examined the ability of the Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool—II (J-SORRAT-II), Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), and Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol—II (J-SOAP-II) to predict violent behavior in 169 male youth who were admitted to a residential adolescent sex offender program. Total scores on the SAVRY and J-SOAP-II significantly predicted nonsexual violence but none of the instruments predicted sexual violence. The J-SOAP-II and SAVRY were less effective in predicting violent reoffending in youth aged 15 and younger than in older youth. The implications of these findings are discussed.