Severe Summer Drought Research Articles

Thinning intensity and frequency enhance Quercus robur L. growth responses to drought in Southern Sweden

ABSTRACT Drought can impact forests directly causing a decrease of growth, but also increase the vulnerability of trees to secondary pests and pathogens, causing additional loss of volume production. To develop new silvicultural strategies, it is crucial to understand if thinning can promote resilience of the remaining trees to drought by enhancing an efficient use of resources. Given projected drier vegetation periods in Southern Sweden, the aim of the study was to determine how tree growth is affected by severe summer droughts under different thinning regimes. We used an experiment established in 1991 in a 40-year-old pure oak (Quercus robur L.) stand with two thinning intensities and an unthinned control. We collected tree cores before and after specific drought events occurring after treatment. We observed that heavy thinning intensity increased drought resistance, and decreased recovery time and growth reduction when the time since the last intervention was 4–5 years. Our results suggest that heavy and frequent thinning interventions would be an appropriate management alternative to alleviate drought stress in pure oak stands close to the northern edge of their distribution.

Phenotypic plasticity of water-related traits reveals boundaries to the adaptive capacity of a dominant European grass species under increased drought

The intensification of droughts due to climate change is a global concern, and many plant species face increasing water deficits. Understanding the role of phenotypic plasticity in plant adaptation to these changing conditions is crucial. This research focuses on Bromopsis erecta, a dominant perennial grass in European and Mediterranean grasslands, to predict its potential adaptation to climate change. We assessed plants from shallow and deep soils (i.e., with contrasting water reserves) of a Mediterranean rangeland in southern France, and tested the effect of six years of experimentally increased summer drought compared to the ambient conditions on plant traits, survival and abundance. In both field and common garden experiments, we measured water-related traits, including static traits under non-limiting water conditions, and dynamic traits, such as rates of trait variation during drought. Trait plasticity was determined as a reaction norm to increasing soil water stress and was tested against changes in B. erecta abundance over the past decade, including the study period. Trait plasticity was detected only for leaf dry matter content (LDMC), revealing that the resource strategy of B. erecta became more conservative over less than a decade with higher LDMC and leaf thickness according to the plant economic spectrum. No plasticity was found for osmotic potential or specific leaf area. The variability of other traits was ascribed to the possible lagging effect of previous water stress and was associated more with soil depth than with previous summer drought intensity. The abundance decline of B. erecta, which dropped from 20 % to around 5 % in shallow soils, was not associated with the plasticity of LDMC but was positively correlated with variations in leaf base membrane damage, meaning unexpectedly, that plants exposed to the most severe summer drought also had the most sensitive leaf base membranes, a possible sign of maladaptive trait plasticity in the population. This key trait response reveals boundaries to the adaptive capacity of this perennial grass to survive pluri-annual drought.

Soil drought sets site specific limits to stem radial growth and sap flow of Douglas-fir across Germany.

Soil drought during summer in Central Europe has become more frequent and severe over the last decades. European forests are suffering increasing damage, particularly Norway spruce. Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco), a non-native tree species, is considered as a promising alternative to build drought-resilient forests. The main goal of this study was to investigate the intraannual radial stem growth and sap flow performance of Douglas-fir along a precipitation gradient across Germany under severe drought. Sap flow and stem radial changes of up to ten trees each at four sites with different precipitation regimes were measured in combination with volumetric soil water content during the growing season of 2022. Measurements of stem radial changes were used to calculate the trees' stem water deficit, a proxy for tree water status and drought stress. The severe summer drought of 2022 led to an early growth cessation and a significant reduction in daily sap flow at all four sites monitored. We could identify a site-specific threshold in soil water availability ranging between 21.7 and 29.6% of relative extractable water (REW) under which stem water reserves cannot be replenished and thereby inhibiting radial growth. We could also demonstrate that at this threshold, sap flow is heavily reduced to between 43.5 and 53.3%, and for a REW below 50%, sap flow linearly decreases by 1.1-2.0% per 1% reduction in REW. This reduction tends to follow the humidity gradient, being more pronounced at the most oceanic characterized site and suggesting an adaptation to site conditions. Even though Douglas-fir is considered to be more drought stress resistant than Norway spruce, growth and sap flow are greatly reduced by severe summer drought, which became more frequent in recent years and their frequency and intensity is likely to increase. Our results suggest that timber production of Douglas-fir in Central Europe will decline considerably under projected climate change, and thus pointing to site specific growth constraints for a so far promising non-native tree species in Europe.

EstablishMed, a dataset of transition probabilities for woody plant establishment in the Mediterranean Region

AbstractMotivationPlant establishment is the result of sequential demographic processes, namely post‐dispersal seed survival, seed germination, seedling survival and sapling survival. These processes can be quantified as transition probabilities between life stages through field experiments, and their product provides an overall establishment probability. This information is essential to understand demography within populations and plant colonization potential under global change scenarios. The Mediterranean Region constitutes a biodiversity hotspot characterised by severe summer droughts, which suppose a critical demographic bottleneck for perennial plant establishment. Despite many studies have quantified transition probabilities of woody species in this region, information is scattered through the literature and has not yet been compiled. To fill this gap, we collated data from a systematic literature review and completed them with new unpublished data to create the EstablishMed dataset.Main types of variables containedEstablishMed is a compilation of 4728 records of transition probabilities that quantify demographic processes operating during plant establishment. All records belong to native species and were obtained in situ under field conditions. Each record includes information about the specific spatiotemporal context of the study (i.e., year, site, population, habitat and microhabitat) and the experimental procedures employed (e.g., degree of protection against natural enemies). In addition, we included taxonomic and trait information of the study species (i.e., seed mass, dispersal syndrome and life form), and the bioclimate of the study sites.Spatial location and grainThe dataset covers the whole Mediterranean Region. The finest spatial resolution corresponds to microhabitat types within populations.Time period and grainData were extracted from 271 studies originated between 1991 and 2024.Major taxa and level of measurement134 woody species from 80 genera and 39 families.Software formatEstablishMed is available in .csv format in Dryad repository.

Post-fire reference densities for giant sequoia seedlings in a new era of high-severity wildfires

Many forests globally are experiencing increases in large, high-severity wildfires, often with increasingly inadequate post-fire tree regeneration. To identify areas that might need post-fire planting, forest managers have a growing need for seedling reference densities – the natural seedling densities expected to be adequate to regenerate a forest – to compare with observed post-fire seedling densities. The most useful reference densities will meet five criteria: they will (1) be specific to natural post-fire reproduction rather than planted seedlings (because planted seedlings can have substantially greater survival than natural seedlings, thus underestimating adequate natural reproduction), (2) apply to the first few years following fire (when management decisions and actions are most likely), (3) be specific to each of those post-fire years (because post-fire seedling densities can change rapidly with time since fire), (4) be associated with estimates of uncertainty, and (5) include consideration of novel environmental conditions during management applications (because most reference densities will be based on data collected under more environmentally benign conditions). The world’s most massive tree species, the giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) of California’s Sierra Nevada, recently experienced historically unprecedented wildfires that killed an estimated 13–19% of mature sequoias across their native range. Seedlings germinating after these fires then experienced exceptional summer heat and the two most severe summer droughts of the 121-year historical record. To help inform management responses to these events, we used seedling censuses from past fires (mostly prescribed fires) to calculate sequoia seedling reference densities meeting the five criteria. The reference densities had three striking features, which are partly attributable to giant sequoia’s status as a pioneer species. First, despite being inherently conservative, the reference densities were quite high. For example, mean first-year reference density was 172,599 seedlings ha−1. Second, reference densities declined precipitously with time since fire: the mean fifth-year reference density was only 5% of the mean first-year density. Third, the reference densities were associated with relatively substantial uncertainty, a consequence of density variations among seedling plots; for example, the 95% credible interval for first-year reference density was 64,377 to 313,438 seedlings ha−1. Despite this uncertainty, a case-study sequoia grove that recently burned in a high-severity wildfire had second-year post-fire seedling densities that were significantly (and dramatically) lower than the corresponding second-year reference density, suggesting inadequate post-fire reproduction. Our results highlight the value of the five criteria for reference densities – criteria that, in current practice, are rarely all met.

Does lower water availability limit stem CO2 efflux of oak and hornbeam coppices?

Recent changes in water availability can be crucial for the development, growth and carbon budget of forests. Therefore, our aim was to determine the effect of reduced throughfall and severe summer drought on stem CO2 efflux as a function of temperature and stem increment. Stem CO2 efflux was measured using the chamber method on oak and hornbeam under four treatments: coppice, thinned coppice, and both coppice and thinned coppice with 30 %-reduced throughfall. The first year of the experiment had favourable soil water availability and the second year was characterized by a dry summer. While reduced throughfall had no effect on stem CO2 efflux, the summer drought decreased efflux by 43-81 % during July and August. The stem CO2 efflux was reduced less severely (by 13-40 %) in September when the drought persisted but the stem increment was already negligible. The stem increment was also strongly affected by the drought, which was reflected in its paired relationship with stem CO2 efflux over the two experimental years. The study showed that summer dry periods significantly and rapidly reduce stem CO2 efflux, whereas a constant 30 % rainfall reduction needs probably a longer time to affect stem properties, and indirectly stem CO2 efflux.

Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation’s energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. This paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events.

Temperature extremes of 2022 reduced carbon uptake by forests in Europe

The year 2022 saw record breaking temperatures in Europe during both summer and fall. Similar to the recent 2018 drought, close to 30% (3.0 million km2) of the European continent was under severe summer drought. In 2022, the drought was located in central and southeastern Europe, contrasting the Northern-centered 2018 drought. We show, using multiple sets of observations, a reduction of net biospheric carbon uptake in summer (56-62 TgC) over the drought area. Specific sites in France even showed a widespread summertime carbon release by forests, additional to wildfires. Partial compensation (32%) for the decreased carbon uptake due to drought was offered by a warm autumn with prolonged biospheric carbon uptake. The severity of this second drought event in 5 years suggests drought-induced reduced carbon uptake to no longer be exceptional, and important to factor into Europe’s developing plans for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions that rely on carbon uptake by forests.

Assessing carbon and water fluxes in a mixed Mediterranean protected forest under climate change: An integrated bottom – up and top – down approach

This paper proposes a framework based on the integration of bottom-up and top-down approaches to assess and quantify the effect of local climate change on carbon and water fluxes in a protected Mediterranean mixed forest. The forest, with an extent of 50 ha, is in a coastal zone and is in decline because of severe summer drought stress. Since 2018, it has been involved in the LIFE PRIMED ecological restoration project.The bottom-up approach used gas exchange measurements and the MOCA model (MOdelling for Carbon Assessment) to quantify photosynthesis and transpiration of the main species in the forest (P. latifolia, P. lentiscus, Q. cerris, and F. angustifolia sub. oxycarpa). The top-down approach used the satellite models C-fix and NDVI-CWS, to quantify and spatialise gross primary production (GPP), net primary production (NPP), and evapotranspiration (ETA) at the forest stand scale. The up-scaling process from leaf to forest stand was made possible by calibrating two key parameters: light use efficiency (ε) and vegetation transpiration coefficient (Kcveg).The results indicate a decline in GPP, NPP, and ETA during the study period (2018–2022) due to the summer drought conditions caused by rising temperatures (16.60 °C in 2018 vs. 16.98 °C in 2022), increased vapor pressure deficit, reduced soil water content, and rainfall (1328 mm in 2018 vs. 468 mm in 2022). In 2018, the annual GPP was 1186.83 ± 351.40 gC/m2y, which decreased to 1128.67 ± 331.21 gC/m2y in 2022. During the dry summer period, GPP ranged from 401.76 ± 119.54 gC/m2y in 2018 to 347.39 ± 101.62 gC/m2y in 2022. Annual ETA rates varied between 1184.86 ± 351.86 mmH₂O/m2y (2018) and 1304.92 ± 384.07 mmH₂O/m2y (2022). The summer ETA rates were significantly influenced by drought conditions, decreasing from 638.73 ± 190.67 mmH₂O/m2y in 2018 to 390.35 ± 108.83 mmH₂O/m2y in 2022.Based on the observed trend in other Mediterranean areas, species-specific responsiveness to local climate change suggests that P. latifolia and P. lentiscus, which are better adapted to water-limited environments, could gradually replace Q. cerris and F. angustifolia subs. oxycarpa.This study provides useful quantitative indications for the management and restoration goals of the area and suggests a methodology that can be applicable in several management practices, particularly for small heterogeneous and fragmented forested areas such as the Mediterranean ones.

Canary in the forest?—Tree mortality and canopy dieback of western redcedar linked to drier and warmer summers

AbstractAimForest dieback is increasing from unfavourable climate conditions. Western redcedar (WRC)—a culturally, ecologically and economically important species—has recently experienced anomalously high mortality rates and partial canopy dieback. We investigated how WRC tree growth and dieback responded to climate variability and drought using tree‐ring methods.LocationPacific Northwest, USA.TaxonWestern redcedar (Thuja plicata).MethodsWe collected tree cores from three tree health status groups (no canopy dieback, partial canopy dieback, and dead trees) at 11 sites in coastal (maritime climate) and interior (continental climate) WRC populations. From growth rates, we computed four growth indices that assessed the resilience to drought and estimated the year of death.ResultsWarmer and drier climate conditions in May/June that extended the annual July‐to‐September dry season reduced radial growth in 9 of 11 sites (1975–2020). WRC trees recovered growth to pre‐drought rates within 3 years when post‐drought climate conditions were cooler/wetter than average. However, recovery from drought was slower or absent when warmer/drier conditions occurred during the post‐drought recovery period, possibly leading to the recent and widespread mortality across the coastal population. WRC mortality was portended by 4–5 years of declining growth. Annually‐resolved mortality in coastal populations predominately occurred in 2017–2018 (80% of sampled dead trees), a period that coincided with exceedingly hot temperatures and the longest regionally dry period from May to September (1970–2020). In interior populations, mortality was dispersed among years but associated with warmer and drier conditions from August to September.Main conclusionsOur findings forewarn that a warming climate and more frequent and severe summer droughts, especially in consecutive years, will likely increase the vulnerability of WRC to canopy dieback and mortality and possibly other drought‐sensitive trees in one of the world's largest forest carbon sinks.

The estimation and partitioning of evapotranspiration in a coniferous plantation in subtropical China.

Accurate estimations of forest evapotranspiration (ET) and its components, transpiration (T) and evaporation (E), are important for deep understanding and predicting the responses of forest water cycles to climate change. In this study, the improved Shuttleworth-Wallace model (SWH) was applied to estimate ET, T, and E during 2003-2014 in a subtropical planation, and the modeled results were verified using in situ measurements by the eddy covariance technique, sap flow, and micro-lysimeter method. The study aimed to clarify whether it is feasible and reliable to use the SWH model to estimate and partition ET in forests. In addition, depending on the long-term data, the specific performances in modeling ET under different climatic backgrounds were investigated, and the underlying mechanisms were explored. The results verified that the SWH performed relatively well in the subtropical forest, and the modeled ET, T and E could track the seasonal variations, although overestimations were found in the peak seasons. However, the model was relatively weaker in estimating the interannual variabilities. It performed well in modeling ET in normal years but showed larger model residuals in years with obvious climatic anomalies. In the severe summer-drought (2003) and cold-spring (2005) years, the model greatly overestimated ET. It also overestimated ET in summer since 2010, which may be ascribed to the less dependency of ET on VPD induced by the more humid microclimate in forest accompanied with forest development. For the ET partitioning results, the modeled and measured E and T values were all in reasonable ranges. The possible reasons for underestimations (overestimations) of E and T by measurements (SWH model) were discussed. In this study, the data obtained using different methods and from different scales matched each other and could be cross validated, and the discussion on discrepancies would be beneficial for understanding the advantages and flaws of different methods and could be the basis for optimizing the measurement and model methods. In sum, this study verified that it is feasible to use the SWH model in forests and provided a basis for further improving and optimizing the modeled results under different climate backgrounds.

Legacy Effects in Buds and Leaves of European Beech Saplings (Fagus sylvatica) after Severe Drought.

Against the background of climate change, we studied the effects of a severe summer drought on buds of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) saplings and on leaves formed during the subsequent spring in trees attributed to different drought-damage classes. For the first time, we combined assessments of the vitality (assessed through histochemical staining), mass and stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) of buds from drought-stressed woody plants with morphological and physiological variables of leaves that have emerged from the same plants and crown parts. The number, individual mass and vitality of the buds decreased and δ13C increased with increasing drought-induced damage. Bud mass, vitality and δ13C were significantly intercorrelated. The δ13C of the buds was imprinted on the leaves formed in the subsequent spring, but individual leaf mass, leaf size and specific leaf area were not significantly different among damage classes. Vitality and δ13C of the buds are suitable indicators of the extent of preceding drought impact. Bud vitality may be used as a simple means of screening saplings for the flushing capability in the subsequent spring. European beech saplings are susceptible, but-due to interindividual differences-are resilient, to a certain extent, to a singular severe drought stress.

Long-term effects of environmental alterations in protected grasslands – Land-use history determines changes in plant species composition

Nutrient-poor, semi-natural grasslands are among the most species-rich ecosystems across Europe. However, due to the transition from pre-industrial farming to modern agriculture, the extent of such grasslands has greatly decreased and the remaining patches have often suffered from habitat deterioration. Here, we analysed the effects of land-use and climate change as well as of nitrogen deposition on plant communities of dry (sand) (n = 118) and wet grasslands (n = 30) in a protected area, representative for the NE German young moraine landscape. Our study revealed that over a time period of 25 years, plant species composition in protected grasslands has changed considerably. Overall, plant species richness increased in both dry and wet grasslands from 1994 to 2019. The number of threatened species, however, decreased in dry but increased in wet grasslands. Land-use history was identified as the major driver of changes in species composition within the studied semi-natural grasslands. In wet grasslands, after >30 years of abandonment prior to the first survey, species-rich communities such as the Molinietalia have successfully been restored through the re-introduction of continuous, low-intensity management (mostly mowing once in late summer) shortly before the first survey. This has led to an increase of often threatened, light-demanding species of nutrient-poor wet grasslands. In dry grasslands, however, changes in vegetation were often contrary to those in wet grasslands; for example dry grasslands exhibited an increase in the nitrogen indicator value while it decreased in wet grasslands. Overall, open, nutrient-poor dry grasslands rich in stress-tolerant and often threatened species have been replaced by dense, more mesophytic grasslands with competitive generalists and some ruderal annuals. These successional changes were caused in particular by (i) an increase in abandonment on the least productive soils, (ii) undergrazing in permanent pastures and (iii) an insufficient time period since the re-introduction of grazing combined with a too low grazing pressure in new pastures on more productive soils. Nitrogen deposition was a further driver, especially on more acidic, dry soils. Additionally, grassland ruderalization was favoured by cropping of some plots and climate change since warm winters and severe summer droughts have led to an increase of annual ruderal species.

Changes in soil organic matter molecular structure after five-years mimicking climate change scenarios in a Mediterranean savannah.

Mediterranean savannahs (dehesas) are agro-sylvo-pastoral systems with a marked seasonality, with severe summer drought and favourable rainy spring and autumn. These conditions are forecasted to become more extreme due to the ongoing global climate change. Under such conditions, it is key to understand soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics at a molecular level. Here, analytical pyrolysis (Py-GC/MS) combined with chemometric statistical approaches was used for the molecular characterization of SOM in a five-years field manipulative experiment of single and combined rainfall exclusion (drought) and increased temperature (warming). The results indicate that SOM molecular composition in dehesas is mainly determined by the effect of the tree canopy. After only five years of the climatic experiment, the differences caused by the warming, drought and the combination of warming+drought forced climate scenarios became statistically significant with respect to the untreated controls, notably in the open pasture habitat. The climatic treatments mimicking foreseen climate changes affected mainly the lignocellulose dynamics, but also other SOM compounds (alkanes, fatty acids, isoprenoids and nitrogen compounds) pointing to accelerated humification processes and SOM degradation when soils are under warmer and dryer conditions. Therefore, it is expected that, in the short term, the foreseen climate change scenarios will exert changes in the Mediterranean savannah SOM molecular structure and in its dynamic.

Thinning improves growth and resilience after severe droughts in Quercus subpyrenaica coppice forests in the Spanish Pre-Pyrenees

During the past years, growth and productivity of different oak species have been constrained by water shortage in seasonally dry regions such as the Mediterranean Basin. Thinning could improve oak radial growth in these drought-prone regions through the reduction of tree competition for soil water in summer. However, we still lack adequate, long-term assessments on how lasting are thinning treatments effects and to what extent they contribute to oak growth recovery after drought. Here we aim: (i) to study the radial growth sensitivity to drought of Quercus subpyrenaica in the Spanish Pre-Pyrenees, and (ii) to verify if thinning represents a suitable option to enhance growth resistance to drought and post-drought growth recovery. We analysed basal area increment (BAI) trends in the period 1960–2020 of formerly coppiced oak stands thinned in 1984 and compared them with unthinned plots and also with coexisting Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) growing in thinned plots. We used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to estimate the severity of droughts and we also assessed climate-growth relationships. Oaks in thinned plots showed higher BAI (369 mm2) than those in unthinned plots (221 mm2). Growth rates remained higher in thinned than in unthinned plots also under severe drought stress. A severe summer drought in 1986 caused abrupt BAI reductions in both oaks (- 40.5%) and pines (- 40.1%). The positive effect of thinning on growth lasted for over 20 years and slightly declined as canopies closed. In the thinned plots, trees with smaller diameter showed the greatest growth release. Oaks in unthinned plots and Scots pine were more sensitive to short-term droughts in terms of growth reduction than oaks in thinned plots, while long term droughts have similar effects on oaks from both thinned and unthinned plots. Oaks were resilient to drought, showing recovery periods lasting from 1 to 2 years in both thinned and unthinned plots. However, intense and prolonged droughts could strongly reverse the expected growth enhancement of thinned plots, and a greater frequency of droughts would limit coppice growth and productivity thus lengthening the rotation periods.

Large increases of multi-year droughts in north-western Europe in a warmer climate

Three consecutive dry summers in western Europe (2018–2019–2020) had widespread negative impacts on society and ecosystems, and started societal debate on (changing) drought vulnerability and adaptation measures. We investigate the occurrence of multi-year droughts in the Rhine basin, with a focus on event probability in the present and in future warmer climates. Additionally, we investigate the temporally compounding physical drivers of multi-year drought events. A combination of multiple reanalysis datasets and multi-model large ensemble climate model simulations was used to provide a robust analysis of the statistics and physical processes of these rare events. We identify two types of multi-year drought events (consecutive meteorological summer droughts and long-duration hydrological droughts), and show that these occur on average about twice in a 30 year period in the present climate, though natural variability is large (zero to five events can occur in a single 30 year period). Projected decreases in summer precipitation and increases in atmospheric evaporative demand, lead to a doubling of event probability at 1 ^circC additional global warming relative to present-day and an increase in the average length of events. Consecutive meteorological summer droughts are forced by two, seemingly independent, summers of lower than normal precipitation and higher than normal evaporative demand. The soil moisture response to this temporally compound meteorological forcing has a clear multi-year imprint, resulting in a relatively larger reduction of soil moisture content in the second year of drought, and potentially more severe drought impacts. Long-duration hydrological droughts start with a severe summer drought followed by lingering meteorologically dry conditions. This limits and slows down the hydrological recovery of soil moisture content, leading to long-lasting drought conditions. This initial exploration provides avenues for further investigation of multi-year drought hazard and vulnerability in the region, which is advised given the projected trends and vulnerability of society and ecosystems.

Effects of Weather Extremes on the Nutrient Dynamics of a Shallow Eutrophic Lake as Observed during a Three-Year Monitoring Study

The formation of algal and cyanobacterial blooms caused by the eutrophication of water bodies is a growing global concern. To examine the impact of extreme weather events on blooms, eutrophication-related parameters (e.g., water temperature, nitrate, ammonium, nitrite, and soluble reactive phosphate (SRP)) were quantitatively assessed monthly over three years (2017–2019) at Lake Seeburg (Central Germany), a shallow eutrophic lake with regular cyanobacterial blooms. In addition, SRP concentrations in sediment pore water were assessed monthly for one year (2018). The monitoring period included a three-day extremely heavy rain event in 2017 as well as a severe drought in summer 2018. No such extreme weather conditions occurred in 2019. After the heavy rain event in 2017, anoxic water containing high levels of ammonium and SRP entered the lake from flooded upstream wetlands. This external nutrient spike resulted in a heavy but short (3 weeks) and monospecific cyanobacterial bloom. A different situation occurred during the exceptionally hot and dry summer of 2018. Especially favored by high water temperatures, SRP concentrations in sediment pore waters gradually increased to extreme levels (34.4 mg/L). This resulted in a strong and sustained internal SRP delivery into the water column (69 mg/m2·d−1), which supported the longest-lasting cyanobacterial bloom (3 months) within the three-year monitoring period. Subsequent biomass decay led to oxygen-depleted conditions in the bottom waters, elevated ammonium, and, later, nitrate concentrations. Our observations demonstrate the particular effects of extreme weather events on nutrient dynamics and the phytoplankton composition in the lake. As the frequency and intensity of such events will likely increase due to climate change, their impacts need to be increasingly considered, e.g., in future remediation strategies.

Potential soil methane oxidation in naturally regenerated oak-dominated temperate deciduous forest stands responds to soil water status regardless of their age—an intact core incubation study

Key messagePotential CH4 oxidation in the top soil layer increased with decreasing soil water content in spring but was inhibited during severe summer drought in naturally-regenerated oak-dominated temperate deciduous forest stands regardless of their age. No direct effect of mineral nitrogen on soil CH4 oxidation was found. Soil CH4 oxidation in temperate forests could be reduced by extreme climatic events.ContextThe oxidation of atmospheric methane (CH4) by methanotrophic bacteria in forest soils is an important but overlooked ecosystem service.AimOur objective was to determine which factors drive variations in soil CH4 oxidation in oak-dominated temperate deciduous forest stands of different ages.MethodsSoil samples were collected in 16 stands aged 20 to 143 years in periods of high and low soil water content (SWC). The potential rate of soil CH4 oxidation was measured by incubating the first five centimetres of intact soil cores at 20 °C.ResultsSWC was the main driver accounting for variations in CH4 oxidation. In spring, a two-fold reduction in SWC greatly increased CH4 oxidation. But when the soil was dry in late summer, a further reduction in SWC led to a decrease in CH4 oxidation in the top soil layer. No direct effect of mineral nitrogen on soil CH4 oxidation was found.ConclusionsWith regard to soil CH4 oxidation, naturally regenerated forest stands contribute equally to climate change mitigation regardless of their age. Considering future climate scenarios for Europe, soil CH4 sink in temperate forests could be reduced, due to both an increase in the number of flooding episodes in spring and drier summers.

Novel passive detection approach reveals low breeding season survival and apparent lactation cost in a critically endangered cave bat.

Capture-mark-recapture/resight (CMR) methods are used for survival-rate studies, yet are often limited by small sample sizes. Advances in passive integrated transponder (PIT) technology have enabled passive detection or ‘resight’ of marked individuals using large antennas with greater read-ranges than previously possible. We used passively-detected resight data and CMR models to study survival rates of the southern bent-winged bat Miniopterus orianae bassanii, a critically endangered, cave-dwelling bat. Over three years, we used PIT-tagging to monitor 2966 individuals at the species’ largest breeding aggregation, using daily detection data (> 1.6 million detections) to estimate seasonal survival probabilities, structured by age, sex and reproductive status, and parameterise population projection matrices. This has hitherto been impossible using traditional CMR methods due to disturbance risk and low recapture rates. Bats exhibited lowest apparent seasonal survival over summer and autumn, particularly for reproductive females in summer (when lactating) and juveniles in autumn (after weaning), and high survival in winter. Lowest survival rates coincided with severe drought in summer–autumn 2016, suggesting that dry conditions affect population viability. Under all likely demographic assumptions, population projection matrices suggested the population is in deterministic decline, requiring urgent action to reduce extinction risk. Passively-collected resight data can now be used in combination with CMR models to provide extensive, robust information for targeted wildlife population management.

Larval parasitism in a specialist herbivore is explained by phenological synchrony and host plant availability.

Parasitism is a key factor in the population dynamics of many herbivorous insects, although its impact on host populations varies widely, for instance, along latitudinal and altitudinal gradients. Understanding the sources of geographical variation in host-parasitoid interactions is crucial for reliably predicting the future success of the interacting species under a context of global change. Here, we examine larval parasitism in the butterfly Aglais urticae in south-west Europe, where it is a mountain specialist. Larval nests were sampled over 2years along altitudinal gradients in three Iberian mountain ranges, including the Sierra Nevada, home to its southernmost European population. Additional data on nettle condition and adult butterflies were obtained in the study areas. These data sources were used to investigate whether or not differences in parasitism rates are related to the geographical position and phenology of the host, and to the availability of the host plants. Phenological differences in the host populations between regions were related to the severity of summer drought and the corresponding differences in host plant availability. At the trailing-edge of its distribution, the butterfly's breeding season was restricted to the end of winter and spring, while in its northern Iberian range the season was prolonged until mid-summer. Although parasitism was an important source of mortality in all regions, parasitism rates and parasitoid richness were highest in the north and lowest in the south. Moreover, within a region, there was a notable increase in parasitism rates over time, which probably led to selection against an additional late summer host generation in northern regions. Conversely, the shorter breeding season in Sierra Nevada resulted in a loss of synchrony between the host and one important late season parasitoid, Sturmia bella, which may partly explain the high density of this butterfly species at the trailing-edge of its range. Our results support the key role of host phenology in accounting for differences in parasitism rates between populations. They also provide insights into how climate through host plant availability affects host phenology and, ultimately, the impact of parasitism on host populations.