Severe Extreme Weather Events Research Articles

LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENT INSTITUTIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CASE OF MEENANGADI PANCHAYAT IN KERALA

India faces significant vulnerability to the effects of climate change, attributed to its varied geography, substantial population, and reliance on agriculture. The nation encounters numerous climate-related challenges, including more frequent and severe extreme weather events like heatwaves, droughts, floods, and cyclones. Dealing with this intricate matter necessitates a comprehensive and cooperative strategy that extends beyond conventional top-down governance models. Local governments have a vital role in formulating and executing climate change adaptation strategies. They assess local vulnerabilities, identify priority areas, and formulate plans to build resilience and reduce risks. This can involve measures such as infrastructure improvements, land-use planning, water management, and public health initiatives tailored to the specific needs of the community. Local governments often collaborate with stakeholders, including businesses and residents, to achieve greenhouse gas reduction targets. India has pledged to become carbon neutral by the year 2070, and achieving carbon neutrality is a complex and multi-faceted endeavour that requires coordinated efforts across sectors and levels of government. The carbon-neutral Meenangadi in the Wayanad district of Kerala is a perfect example of successful local self-government taking measures to achieve carbon neutrality.

Weather-related fragility modelling of critical infrastructure: a power and railway case study

Climate change has led to more frequent and severe extreme weather events, which impact critical infrastructure networks such as railway and power systems. Although infrastructure networks are interdependent, the analysis to understand the impact of weather events on infrastructure systems is usually performed in sector-specific silos. A methodology to examine how the same weather events affect different infrastructure sectors is presented, in order to understand cross-sectoral impact of extreme weather for interconnected regional infrastructure. Fragility modelling was used to examine the impact of temperature and rainfall on power and rail system failures using the West Midlands (in the UK) as a case study. The results demonstrated that the impact of temperature was broadly consistent across both infrastructure networks, showing less impact until specific upper and lower thresholds are passed; these thresholds were found to be similar for the different infrastructure networks evaluated, but railway infrastructure was found to be impacted more by lower temperatures. A growing correlation between the number of faults on power and railway systems was also found for both rainfall and temperature, indicating the value in coordinating preparation and planning efforts. For infrastructure operators and owners, regional resilience forums and other decision makers, this study provides an approach to assess the regional impact of extreme weather across multiple infrastructure sectors. The results give useful insights to inform the allocation of resources in response to extreme weather events.

Urgent need for planetary health education for healthcare professionals and students in India.

The current climate crisis has had a significant negative impact on human health across the globe including India. Climate change is leading to global heating, rising sea levels and more severe extreme weather events such as floods, cyclones and droughts. These events have direct and indirect detrimental impacts on human health such as increased risk of water-related illnesses, vector-borne diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity and pollution-related poor health. These effects are disproportionately borne by vulnerable communities, primarily low socioeconomic groups, women, children, and the elderly. Health professionals need to be upskilled to anticipate, diagnose and manage climate-related health issues and respond to environmental emergencies. The emerging transdisciplinary field of planetary health is based on the principle of protecting the planet to protect the health of humans. The authors argue that it is an ethical imperative to include planetary health education in the curricula of medical and other health professions in a way that would help ensure both climate resilience and social justice.

Research on the Influence of Weather Factors on Urban Rail Transit Passenger Flow

In recent years, cities have been increasingly confronted with frequent and severe extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, high temperatures, and strong winds. These extreme weather conditions not only impact urban transportation operations but also directly affect passengers' travel patterns and behaviors. In this context, gaining a deeper understanding of the mechanisms through which weather factors influence urban subway passenger flow becomes crucial. This study aims to investigate the relationship between passenger flow and weather factors, and provide valuable insights for urban rail transit management to enhance proactive decision-making. To achieve this research objective, we first establish a framework for studying the impact of weather on passenger flow. Based on this framework, an analysis is conducted using passenger flow data and weather data from Beijing Metro Line 4. The findings of this study reveal significant effects of different weather factors on subway passenger flow. Increasing severity of weather conditions and higher wind speeds have a negative influence on passenger flow, leading to a decrease in ridership. Conversely, a significant positive correlation is observed between the highest temperature and subway passenger flow, indicating that as the highest temperature rises, the passenger volume also increases.

The effects of climate change-induced flooding on harvest failure in Burkina Faso: case study.

Climate change leads to more frequent and severe extreme weather events including floods, heatwaves, heavy rainfalls, and droughts. In contrast to the majority of research on weather extremes in sub-Saharan Africa, which focus primarily on how a lack of rainfall causes droughts, this paper aims to elucidate the effect of flooding on harvest failure in rural Burkina Faso. We conducted a case study in north-western Nouna, Burkina Faso, between August and December 2021 covering a study population of n = 180 participants. The study comprised four components: (i) interviews with farmers (n = 180) on whether any of their fields had been inundated and if so, on harvest loss on these fields; (ii) determining the feasibility of using Sentinel-2 satellite images to validate study participants reports of floods; (iii) characterizing short-term weather including frequency and duration, of extreme rainfall events within the study area, as well as comparing cumulative rainfall (long-term) over the past 50 years; and (v), estimating both the food energy and economic loss of harvest failure due to flooding. 49% of interviewed farmers (n = 88) reported that floods had damaged at least one of their fields. Some fields (n = 13, 7%) had no harvest due to flooding, while some farmers (n = 14, 8%) had lost part of their harvest. Images from the Sentinel-2-Satellite indicated that reported and remotely observed flooding were consistent. According to time series of data from the local weather station, there has been an increase irregular rainfall distribution and at the same time of cumulative annual rainfall in Nouna. Furthermore, a first illustrative calculation allowed us to estimate the amount of energy lost when one hectare of a common crop is flooded. This case study demonstrated that flood-related harvest failures leading to crop losses in sub-Saharan Africa, exemplified by Burkina Faso, are likely to be substantial. This study serves as a proof-of-principle for flooding effects on food security. This could provide more detail for agricultural adaptation and mitigation strategies. Inundation-vulnerable fields need alternative and novel management practices, which may only be effectively implemented if agricultural institutions and national policy-making bodies receive evidence of flooding e.g., from remote sensing.

Can we use a machine learning approach to predict the impact of heatwaves on emergency department attendance?

Global warming has contributed to more frequent and severe extreme weather events, which has led to increased research on the health impacts of extreme heat. However, research on heatwaves, air quality, and their spatial impact on health service demand is limited. This study used machine learning (ML) approaches to obtain the optimised model to predict health service demand associated with those risk factors for an all-age model and compared it with young children (0–4 years) model in Perth. Ten years’ data (2006–2015) on emergency department attendances (EDA), socioeconomic status (SES), heatwaves, landscape fires, and gaseous and particulate air pollutants were collected. ML approaches, including decision tree, random forest (RF), and geographical random forest (GRF) models, were used to compare and select the best model for predicting EDA and identify important risk factors. Five-hundred cross validations were performed using the testing data, and a construct validation was performed by comparing actual and predicted EDA data. The results showed that the RF model outperformed other models, and SES, air quality, and heatwaves were among the important risk factors to predict EDA. The GRF model was fitted well to the data (R2 = 0.975) and further showed that heatwaves had significant geographic variations and a joint effect with PM2.5 in the southern suburbs of the study area for young children. The RF and GRF models have satisfactory performance in predicting the impact of heatwaves, air quality, and SES on EDA. Heatwaves and air quality have great spatial heterogeneity. Spatial interactions between heatwaves, SES, and air quality measures were the most important predictive risk factors of EDA for young children in the Perth southern suburbs. Future studies are warranted to confirm the findings from this study on a wider scale.

Extreme-wind events in China in the past 50 years and their impacts on sandstorm variations

Extreme-wind events not only cause disasters by themselves but can also trigger sandstorms, resulting in significant social and economic losses. Since recent years have experienced more frequent and severe extreme weather events, it is worth to explore how extreme-wind events response to recent climate change and how they impact the sandstorm variation. This work established two indices, EW90 and EW95, to identify extreme-wind events based on the relation between extreme-wind intensity and local-source sandstorm. EW90 and EW95 extreme-wind indices are defined as the daily maximum wind speeds greater than the 90th and 95th quantiles of local long-term historical records. The spatial distributions of EW90 and EW95 extreme-wind events are similar, which is higher in arid and semi-arid and coastal regions, and lower in southern China. Seasonally, extreme-wind events mainly occur in April and May for most areas over China, while they are more frequent from July to August for humid regions. During 1971–2020, both the EW90 and EW95 extreme-wind speeds and annual frequencies have significant decreasing trend (p < 0.01), while the daily mean wind speed does not decrease significantly. Extreme-wind events do not have significant abrupt change as well, while a turning positive trend after 2003 is found for mean wind speed. Moreover, sandstorm days are highly correlated with the EW90 and EW95 extreme-wind events, with linear and partial correlation coefficients around 0.95 and 0.5, respectively, while they do not have significant correlations with mean wind speed. Therefore, the significant reduction of sandstorms over northern China in the past 50 years is mainly due to the substantially decreasing extreme-wind events.

Outdoor heat stress assessment using an integrated multi-scale numerical weather prediction system: A case study of a heatwave in Montreal

More frequent and severe extreme weather events such as heatwaves are among the most serious challenges to society in coping with the changing climate. To evaluate the impacts of the heatwave on large-scale urban areas, a multi-scale weather forecasting system is designed by integrating different resolutions of the Canadian urbanized version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, cascading from 10 km to 2.5 km, and 250 m. The multi-scale model is implemented in Montreal, Canada, for modeling the 2018 heatwave. Simulation results are well-validated against measurement data, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery and ten weather stations in the city. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) map was calculated to identify vulnerable regions in the city against the heatwave. Land-use types in hotspots and coldspots are analyzed to find dominant factors in the formation of hot and cold areas. It is found that natural landscapes such as vegetation, trees, and water bodies are the dominant features of most coldspots. On the other hand, roads, parking lots, less tree covers, and industrial activities are the common land use features in the hotspots. A weak correlation is found between heat-related death locations and the outdoor UTCI map, implying that the assessment of an outdoor heatwave may not address overheated buildings and communities. This paper shows the importance of built environments – their properties and occupants' socio-demographic factors in the study of heat-related mortalities in cities.

Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States

As global climate change progresses, the United States (US) is expected to experience warmer temperatures as well as more frequent and severe extreme weather events, including heat waves, hurricanes, and wildfires. Each year, these events cost dozens of lives and do billions of dollars' worth of damage, but there has been limited research on how they influence human decisions about migration. Are people moving toward or away from areas most at risk from these climate threats? Here, we examine recent (2010–2020) trends in human migration across the US in relation to features of the natural landscape and climate, as well as frequencies of various natural hazards. Controlling for socioeconomic and environmental factors, we found that people have moved away from areas most affected by heat waves and hurricanes, but toward areas most affected by wildfires. This relationship may suggest that, for many, the dangers of wildfires do not yet outweigh the perceived benefits of life in fire-prone areas. We also found that people have been moving toward metropolitan areas with relatively hot summers, a dangerous public health trend if mean and maximum temperatures continue to rise, as projected in most climate scenarios. These results have implications for policymakers and planners as they prepare strategies to mitigate climate change and natural hazards in areas attracting migrants.

The climate crisis as an ethical challenge

Climate change is athreat to health and social security of billions of people. Health and quality of life are increasingly affected in many ways due to the climate crisis. Rising global temperatures are resulting in increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events, contributing to further increase in inequality, discrimination, and injustice overall and in health care specifically. Furthermore, climatic conditions are also becoming increasingly suitable for the transmission of infectious diseases and their spread into new regions. Socio-economically disadvantaged regions with weak health infrastructure (e.g. Global South) will be hardly able to cope without specific support. The overriding imperative is to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from transport, energy and food production at global, national and regional levels to mitigate negative health impacts. The 2015 Paris Agreement must also be seen as crucial health agreement. Our paper aims to highlight ethical aspects of climate change in the health sector.

Electric utility valuations of investments to reduce the risks of long-duration, widespread power interruptions, part I: Background

ABSTRACT Power industry stakeholders are devoting increasing attention to the risks of long-duration, widespread interruptions (LDWIs) in electricity service. There is concern that these risks are heightening due to more frequent and severe extreme weather events. Numerous studies have examined various aspects of the problem, primarily from an engineering and conceptual perspective. This is the first of two papers reporting the results of a study of LDWIs that focuses on their economic aspects, takes an empirical approach, and includes consideration of institutional factors affecting utilities’ efforts to reduce their vulnerabilities to these disruptions. This paper presents background on the problem, including cost concepts relevant to economic valuation of measures to reduce the risks of LDWIs, valuation methods, and the role of the concept of ‘resilience’ in shaping analysis in this area. This material provides context and motivation for the second paper, which reports on a series of case studies.

Does the Application of ICTs Improve the Efficiency of Agricultural Carbon Reduction? Evidence from Broadband Adoption in Rural China.

Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, this paper examines whether rural broadband adoption affects agricultural carbon reduction efficiency (ACRE), using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2019. This paper achieves a measurement of ACRE by taking the carbon sink of agricultural as one of the desired outputs and using a Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) model and the global Malmquist–Luenberger (GML) index. The results show that: (1) Rural broadband adoption has a positive effect on ACRE. The relationship between the income of rural residents and ACRE was an inverted U-shaped, which confirms the EKC hypothesis. (2) Land transfer has a significant promoting effect on the relationship between rural broadband adoption and ACRE. When the land transfer rate is high, the positive effect of broadband adoption is obvious. (3) The positive effect of broadband adoption on ACRE was more obvious when farmers invested more in production equipment, that is to say, it has a significant positive moderating effect. As farmers in many developing countries suffer from increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events, we believe that the results of this study also have implications for the implementation of agricultural carbon reduction and smart agricultural equipment roll-out in many countries.

Narrative Matters: Fighting not drowning - facing a harsh climate future with wisdom, hope and courage.

The most recent 2021 IPCC climate science update reminds us yet again that accelerating the transition to a just and resilient zero-carbon future clearly remains humanity's most urgent task. A great deal of hard work and a lot of luck may enable us to avoid some of the most dangerous climate change and ecological tipping points. Current and future generations are however on a journey into a world of more frequent and severe extreme weather events; more heatwaves, fires, floods and famines and more rapid extinctions of animals, birds and insects. Awareness, that this is going to be a very long emergency is a source of deep distress for many people passionately committed to decisive climate action. A rapidly expanding body of research highlights the extent to which this distress is experienced most acutely by children and young people with large numbers reporting deeply pessimistic views about the future. This article explores diverse sources of learning and wisdom - from climate scientists and activists; philosophers and social theorists; Indigenous cultures and ways of life; faith-based and spiritual traditions; artists and writers - which can strengthen our capacity to live courageous, compassionate and creative lives in a world of rapidly accelerating climatic and ecological risk.

Climate change and the people's health: the need to exit the consumptagenic system.

The world has warmed to dangerous levels and the attendant disruption to the Earth system is profound. 1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeGlobal warming of 1.5°C. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva2018 Google Scholar The climate change-induced bushfires in Australia have resulted in almost 30 deaths, tens of thousands displaced from their homes, up to 1·25 billion animals dead, and pristine landscapes destroyed. 2 The LancetAustralia on fire. Lancet. 2020; 395: 165 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (4) Google Scholar Globally, there are more frequent and severe extreme weather events. 1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeGlobal warming of 1.5°C. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva2018 Google Scholar While Australia burned, 3 Yu P Xu R Abramson MJ Li S Guo Y Bushfires in Australia: a serious health emergency under climate change. Lancet Planet Health. 2020; (published Jan 10.)https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30267-0 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (72) Google Scholar the worst monsoon rains in decades caused landslides and floods in Indonesia, killing at least 70 people. 4 Westerman A Monsoon rains hit Indonesia causing massive flooding in Jakarta. NPR, Jan 6, 2020https://www.npr.org/2020/01/06/793895408/monsoon-rains-hit-indonesia-causing-massive-flooding-in-jakartaDate accessed: February 11, 2020 Google Scholar In 2019, typhoons and heatwaves killed and injured thousands of people across Africa, Japan, India, China, Europe, and the USA.

Bottom‑up citizen initiatives in natural hazard management: Why they appear and what they can do?

In the face of increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events due to climate change, merely top-down governance approaches are increasingly found inadequate and ineffective. Recent climate change adaptation policy strives to promote bottom-up, citizen-driven initiatives to improve local resilience. How and under what conditions citizens may engage in collective action remains unclear, however. We employ a mixed-methods approach in Eastern Tyrol, Austria, combining stakeholder workshops with a survey of 216 citizens at risk. Results show that bottom-up citizen initiatives can provide multiple benefits, such as increasing risk awareness and local adaptive capacities. While citizens are open-minded to assuming a broad range of activities and responsibilities, local stakeholders in natural hazard management prefer to limit civic engagement to support roles, mostly during recovery from a natural hazard event. Citizen initiatives tend to emerge in communities with weak institutional capital. This may lead to conflicts with existing institutions over allocation of competences and power. Contrastingly, social and human forms of capital support the formation of initiatives; however, low willingness of citizens to assume leadership positions may be a bottleneck for sustained initiatives. Public administration and emergency organisations should address current institutional barriers. They should empower and allow citizens to act autonomously.

What drives public transit organizations in the United States to adapt to extreme weather events?

Extreme weather events often disrupt the operation of public transit systems, and challenge the capacity of transit agencies to effectively respond to them. In this paper, we draw upon a recent nationwide survey of 273 public transit agencies in metropolitan regions across the United States to understand the factors that influence their scope of adaptation to anticipated climate risks. We find that a transit agency undertakes more adaptation measures when transit officials perceive greater risks and greater adaptive capacity of the agency, or when it experiences more severe extreme weather events. We also show that local institutional environment, in particular, political ideology, affects the scope of transit adaptation activities. Transit agencies that operate in more politically liberal counties tend to engage in more adaptation actions, while the effect of state-level ideology depends on the level of perceived influence from state governments.

Using practical and social information to influence flood adaptation behavior

AbstractAs the prospect for more frequent and severe extreme weather events gains scientific support, many nations are evaluating mitigation and adaptation options. Insurance and home retrofits could reduce household welfare losses due to flood events. Yet even after disasters, households often fail to take risk mitigation actions. This paper presents the first randomized field experiment that tests the effect of information provision on household uptake of flood insurance and home retrofits. A sample of 364 flood‐prone households in Bangkok was randomly split into treatment and control groups. The treatment group received practical details on home retrofits and flood insurance as well as social information regarding the insurance purchase decisions of peers. Results indicate that the information intervention increased insurance purchases by about five percentage points, while no effect was detected for home retrofits. This effect is nearly equal to the increase in uptake that the national insurance program in Thailand has achieved through all other means since its establishment in 2012. If scaled up to include all uninsured, flood‐prone households in Bangkok, nearly 70,000 additional households could be insured. The results suggest that well‐designed information interventions could increase uptake of flood insurance, without additional premium subsidies or mandates.

Climate Change and Rural Out-migration in Himalaya

AbstractThis paper examines linkages between climate change and rural out-migration in Himalaya. Subsistence agriculture constitutes the main source of food and rural livelihoods in the region although the availability of arable land is severely limited and crop productivity is low. The constraints of the subsistence economy compel a large proportion of the adult male population to outmigrate from the mountain region in search of livelihoods and employment. Changing climatic conditions have stressed Himalayan agricultural and livelihood systems through higher mean annual temperatures and melting of glaciers and snow, altered precipitation patterns and hydrological disruptions, and more frequent and severe extreme weather events. The amount of rainfall events and number of rainy days has declined respectively by 52% and 34% during the last ten years and the incidence of high intensity rainfall and droughts have increased. These changes have disrupted the hydrological systems and reduced the availability of water resulting in frequent crop failures, declines in irrigation potential (25%), decreased agricultural productivity (26%), and loss of rural livelihoods (34%) in traditional rural sectors. These pressures have contributed to increasing trends of rural out-migration, specifically an overall increase of 2536% between 2001 and 2013. The increasing trend of outmigration among male youth has affected the quality of life of rural women through feminization of mountain agriculture and resource development processes.

Vulnerability of the power sector of Bangladesh to climate change and extreme weather events

Rise in temperature and annual precipitation, changes in seasonal rainfall patterns, more frequent and severe extreme weather events, and increased salinity in river water have been observed in Bangladesh in the recent years. Rising temperature will elevate total power consumption and peak power demand especially during the pre-monsoon hot summer season, reduce power plant efficiency and transformer lifetime, and increase the transmission loss. More frequent and severe extreme weather events may cause more disruption in power generation and distribution, and more damage of power infrastructure. Lower river flow in dry season may cause water scarcity in power plants and hamper the production. Increased salinity in river water due to sea level rise may lead to corrosion and leakages in power plants located in the coastal region of Bangladesh. A diversified, decentralized, and climate resilient power system can reduce negative impacts of climate change on power sector of Bangladesh. Adaptation and mitigation strategies must be incorporated in the planning and development of new power systems and the reformation of existing power systems of Bangladesh.

The Bali Road Map: Can it Deliver an Equitable Post-2012 Climate Agreement for Small Island States?

The ambition and architecture of the post-2012 climate change regime will be critical to the survival of many small island developing nations, many of which are low-lying, vulnerable to the impacts of sea-level rise and exposed to increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events. This paper highlights the key outcomes sought by the Alliance of Small Island States in the international negotiating process on the post-2012 regime and compares these calls with what has been achieved thus far. The paper concludes that while little progress has been made to date, useful avenues for progress do exist if only the political will can be found.