Setting Conservation Targets Research Articles

Beyond setting conservation targets: Q-method as a powerful tool to collectively set an action plan agenda

Nature conservation begins with detailed knowledge of the ecosystem based on inventories and maps. A difficult part of the conservation process subsequently starts, namely, the design of an action plan that achieves the desired protection outcome. As both funding and time are limited, conservation is subject to difficult trade-offs among competing land uses. We present a novel approach based on the Q-method to support local stakeholders that go beyond its usual use in assisting decision-making. We suggest a new usage of the Q-method: a tool to support conservation action prioritization. Our results indicate that the Q-method has valuable attributes, as (1) it encourages individual reflection on one’s own priorities; (2) it identifies different prioritization patterns among respondents; (3) it provides input to later collective discussions, ultimately contributing to establishing consensus; (4) it brings additional arguments to conservation planners based on the latter’s declared priorities. Overall, this use of Q-method can help stakeholders prioritize conservation actions, a crucial step toward achieving ecologically and socially robust conservation action plan.

Accounting for functional connectivity in cross-realm conservation planning in a data poor context: The Cyprus case

In the past years, efforts have been made to include connectivity metrics in conservation planning in order to promote and enhance well-connected systems of protected areas. Connectivity is particularly important for species that rely on more than one realm during their daily or life cycle (multi-realm species). However, conservation plans for the protection of multi-realm species usually involve a single realm, excluding other realms from the prioritization process. Here, we demonstrate an example of cross-realm conservation planning application for the island of Cyprus by taking into account the terrestrial and marine realms and their interface (i.e. coast). Operating within a data-poor context, we use functional connectivity metrics to identify priority areas for the conservation of six multi-realm species, by setting conservation targets simultaneously for the terrestrial and marine realms. MARXAN decision-support tool was used for the identification of the priority areas.Four scenarios were developed to evaluate the impacts of including connectivity in the prioritization process and the effectiveness of the existing coastal/marine protected areas in the achievement of the conservation targets set for the species. All scenarios considered land and sea anthropogenic uses as surrogate costs to influence the prioritization process.Our findings show an increase in the area of the reserve network and, therefore, the cost, when connectivity is included, whilst reducing the total boundary length. Furthermore, the current reserve network fails to achieve conservation targets, particularly for the marine part, which has a substantially smaller protection coverage than the terrestrial part.We conclude that focus should be given in the expansion of the current coastal/marine reserve network following a cross-realm conservation approach. This approach is not only relevant for the conservation of multi-realm species, but also for islandscapes, in particular, where the interdependence between the hinterland and the coast is larger and therefore the magnitude of the impacts generated in one realm and affects the other.

Identifying priority aquatic refuges to sustain freshwater biodiversity in intermittent streams in eastern Australia

AbstractThe hydrological variability of intermittent streams means that the spatial distribution of dry‐season aquatic refuges within river networks and the temporal dynamics of hydrological connectivity between them are critical for the persistence of aquatic biodiversity. Here, a new approach is demonstrated to identify surface water bodies as priority refuges for efficient conservation management of freshwater biodiversity in intermittent stream networks.Recently developed models of surface water extent and daily streamflow were used to represent spatio‐temporal variations in hydrological connectivity and surface water persistence within river networks of eastern Australia over a 107‐yr period. Using this information, systematic conservation planning was applied to prioritize aquatic areas for conservation of 25 fish species under two scenarios. One scenario identified priority refuges to complement those already occurring in protected areas, whereas the other did not consider protected area status.The priority networks identified concentrated on the main stems of river catchments where surface water was more likely to be persistent and aquatic refuges were more likely to be connected, but also included headwaters for rare fish species. All three set conservation targets for the 25 fish species can be met in the best solution of priority networks. Although the second scenario achieved the targets with a smaller size of priority network overall, it required more new aquatic refuges and was thus less efficient than the first scenario.The newly developed datasets are useful for freshwater conservation prioritization because they account for hydrological variability of intermittent streams. The systematic prioritization approach applied is transferable to other regions and freshwater taxa to identify aquatic refuges for biodiversity conservation within intermittent stream systems.

Local scale prioritization of cost-efficient protection within the National Park Thy

This study applied MARXAN to identify cost-efficient areas for biodiversity protection, within the Thy National Park in Denmark. Public authorities have requested a more systematic approach to managing public land, which identifies cost-effective solutions and potential trade-offs between economic cost and biodiversity benefits. The aim of this study was to support the local management staff in setting conservation targets and prioritizing their management efforts. This was addressed through the creation of two primary scenarios: i) applying uniform conservation targets to all biodiversity features, and ii) heterogeneous targets addressing various degrees of conservation importance. Four sub-scenarios were established for each primary scenario to investigate the implications of various conservation targets on conservation cost. Local data on red-listed species and habitat types were used to assess biodiversity benefits. Detailed cost estimates of required conservation actions were included. The results indicated that scenarios with uniform conservation targets provided more flexible networks of protected areas but contributed less to target achievement and a smaller share of selected planning units overlapped with current protected areas. Applying heterogeneous targets based on threat status resulted in a higher degree of target achievement and compactness, but provided less flexible networks. However, these networks may be more suitable for efficient management due to a higher level of clustering and spatial overlap with threatened species distributions.

The King's aquatic desires: 16th‐century fish and crayfish introductions into Spain

AbstractHumans have introduced species out of their native areas for millennia, and characterising these historical introductions can provide insights into the long‐term progress of invasion processes. Here, archival sources and other historical documents are used to describe the motivations, negotiations and actions leading to fish and crayfish introductions into Spain in the second half of the 16th century. King Philip II of Spain brought to the Iberian Peninsula several gardening customs from central Europe, including the construction of fish ponds and their stocking with different aquatic species, many of which were naturally absent from Iberia. These interests led to the introduction of pike (Esox Lucius, Esocidae), common carp (Cyprinus carpio, Cyprinidae), tench (Tinca tinca, Cyprinidae) and Italian crayfish (Austropotamobius italicus, Astacidae). Historical documents allowed describing introduction events, their early management and their outcomes with high temporal, spatial and taxonomic precision. These results introduce a centuries‐long view on the history of the presence of these introduced species in the Iberian Peninsula, where they have all been successful invaders in different historical periods. This work exemplifies the large potential of archival documents to inform about long‐term human–nature relationships, with implications for present‐day environmental management (e.g. setting conservation targets). However, this potential has been only sparsely explored, arguably due to the lack of interactions between humanities and natural sciences. Interdisciplinary historical ecology research should be promoted in order to build robust and applicable knowledge on the long‐term variability of ecosystems and their biota.

Detecting Potential Biodiversity Hotspots for Development of REDD+ Safeguards Based on Analyses of Land-Cover Complexity in East Java, Indonesia

We examined a new method to detect the biodiversity hotspots in terms of complex patch mosaics at a regional scale in East Java, Indonesia, in order to develop the safeguard against further expansion of monocultures by REDD+. A land-cover map consisting of five major land-cover types (forest, agricultural land, bare land, water, and residential) was generated with a 30 m x 30 m resolution by the unsupervised classification of a Landsat8-OLI image. Shannon’s diversity index ( H’ ) was calculated for each of 10.98 ha (11 x 11 pixels) landscape throughout the study area based on the dominance of the land-cover types by five calculation methods with different combinations of land-cover types. Then, the landscapes of upper 5 % in H’ was selected as the potential hotspots in terms of highly complex patch mosaics. Among the five potential hotspots, the calculation of H’ with four land-cover types (forest, agriculture, water, and bare land) was thought to be most suitable to set conservation targets at a regional scale, because the potential hotspots by this method showed aggregated distribution patterns, and was less sensitive to the small residential patches. While, no clear distribution trend was observed along the environmental gradients.

Species-area uncertainties impact the setting of habitat conservation targets and propagate across conservation solutions

Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) is a widely-used approach to develop networks of protected areas. A crucial step in the SCP process is to set conservation targets for biodiversity features (explicit goals that quantify the minimum amount of each biodiversity feature to be covered by the protected areas). When the biodiversity features are different habitats occurring in the planning region, a relevant approach, based on the Species-Area Relationship (SAR), defines targets so as to maximize biodiversity representation within each habitat type. While many formulations of the SAR exist, their application remains dominated by the log-transformation of Power-law model. However, documented habitat-related and taxonomic idiosyncrasies in the shape of the SAR question the effectiveness of a given ubiquitous model in fitting data compared to others. Here, using 13 SAR functional forms, we investigate whether the habitat-related SAR uncertainties propagate across the entire conservation planning process and lead to both divergent conservation targets and conservation solutions for six habitats in the Mediterranean sea. Results revealed uncertainties in model selection across habitats, which leads to different SAR habitat-targets. Constraining a systemic conservation planning tool (Marxan) with those targets provided contrasted sets of priority areas for different SAR scenario. Our study demonstrated that restraining to one particular SAR model is inappropriate at fitting all SAR datasets, providing consequently conservation targets diverging markedly from data-driven SAR inferences. More importantly, corresponding reserve networks are either inefficient or overstated for the protection of habitats, leading to waste of scarce conservation resources that should be used sparingly. Therefore, we suggest to evaluate different SAR models and, when appropriate to carry out a multi-model inference to provide robust habitat-specific conservation targets.

Environmental representativity in marine protected area networks over large and partly unexplored seascapes

Converting assemblages of marine protected areas (MPAs) into functional MPA networks requires political will, multidisciplinary information, coordinated action and time. We developed a new framework to assist planning environmental representativity in a network across the marine space of Portugal, responding to a political commitment to protect 14% of its area by 2020. An aggregate conservation value was estimated for each of the 27 habitats identified, from intertidal waters to the deep sea. This value was based on expert-judgment scoring for environmental properties and features relevant for conservation, chosen to reflect the strategic objectives of the network, thus providing an objective link between conservation commitments and habitat representativity in space. Additionally, habitats' vulnerability to existing anthropogenic pressures and sensitivity to climate change were also scored. The area coverage of each habitat in Portugal and within existing MPAs (regionally and nationally) was assigned to a scale of five orders of magnitude (from <0.01% to >10%) to assess rarity and existing representation. Aggregate conservation value per habitat was negatively correlated with area coverage, positively correlated with vulnerability and was not correlated with sensitivity. The proposed framework offers a multi-dimensional support tool for MPA network development, in particular regarding the prioritization of new habitats to protect, when the goal is to achieve specific targets while ensuring representativity across large areas and complex habitat mosaics. It requires less information and computation effort in comparison to more quantitative approaches, while still providing an objective instrument to scrutinize progress on the implementation of politically set conservation targets.

Combining molecular and landscape tools for targeting evolutionary processes in reserve design: An approach for islands.

The importance of targeting ecological and evolutionary processes in reserve design has been widely acknowledged in the literature but rarely implemented on islands. Using Socotran reptiles as models, we aim to relate richness of widespread and restricted-range species directly with landscape variables and to compare the impact of setting conservation targets for lineages versus species. Socotra Island is a UNESCO Natural World Heritage Site, containing high levels of endemism in relation to its area, especially of reptiles, the vertebrates with the most comprehensive available genetic data. We predicted the occurrences of reptile species using distribution models and used a novel approach to interpolate maps of spatial phylogenetic patterns. Patterns of intra and interspecifc diversity and differences between spatial outputs of lineage and species richness were related to eco-geographic variables. We evaluated differences in target achievement for each conservation unit within protected areas (PAs) under the current Zoning Plan (ZP) using gap and reserve design analyses. Although intraspecific richness was strongly correlated with interspecific richness, differences in their spatial distribution reached ~30% in some areas. Differences were more pronounced for wide-ranging than restricted-range taxa. Gap analysis indicates that most conservation units are under-represented in sanctuaries and that intra and interspecific richness were significantly higher outside PAs. This work will guide local-scale conservation planning as the ZP is due to be re-evaluated. This is one of the few studies on islands using genetic data from an entire class of vertebrates to incorporate lineage diversity in reserve design. This study provides an alternative methodological framework for supporting the use of landscape and genetic tools in reserve design, circumventing the use of phylogenetic distances and deterministic spatial interpolation of lineage diversity that can be widely applied to other systems.

Biological Invasions in Conservation Planning: A Global Systematic Review

Biological invasions threaten biodiversity in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems, requiring substantial conservation and management efforts. To examine how the conservation planning literature addresses biological invasions and if planning in the marine environment could benefit from experiences in the freshwater and terrestrial systems, we conducted a global systematic review. Out of 1149 scientific articles mentioning both ‘conservation planning’ and ‘alien’ or any of its alternative terms, 70 articles met our selection criteria. Most of the studies were related to the terrestrial environment, while only 10% focused on the marine one. The main conservation targets were species (mostly vertebrates) rather than habitats or ecosystems. Apart from being mentioned, alien species were considered of concern for conservation in only 46% of the cases, while mitigation measures were proposed in only 13% of the cases. The vast majority of the studies (73%) ignored alien species in conservation planning even if their negative impacts were recognized. In 20% of the studies, highly invaded areas were avoided in the planning, while in 6% of the cases such areas were prioritized for conservation. In the latter case, two opposing approaches led to the selection of invaded areas: either alien and native biodiversity were treated equally in setting conservation targets, i.e. alien species were also considered as ecological features requiring protection, or more commonly invaded sites were prioritized for the implementation of management actions to control or eradicate invasive alien species. When the ‘avoid’ approach was followed, in most of the cases highly impacted areas were either excluded or invasive alien species were included in the estimation of a cost function to be minimized. Most of the studies that followed a ‘protect’ or ‘avoid’ approach dealt with terrestrial or freshwater features but in most cases the followed approach could be transferred to the marine environment. Gaps and needs for further research are discussed and we propose an 11-step framework to account for biological invasions into the systematic conservation planning design.

Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species.

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.

The value of migration information for conservation prioritization of sea turtles in the Mediterranean

AbstractAimConservation plans often struggle to account for connectivity in spatial prioritization approaches for the protection of migratory species. Protection of such species is challenging because their movements may be uncertain and variable, span vast distances, cross international borders and traverse land and sea habitats. Often we are faced with small samples of information from various sources and the collection of additional data can be costly and time‐consuming. Therefore it is important to evaluate what degree of spatial information provides sufficient results for directing management actions. Here we develop and evaluate an approach that incorporates habitat and movement information to advance the conservation of migratory species. We test our approach using information on threatened loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in theMediterranean.LocationTheMediterraneanSea.MethodsWe use Marxan, a spatially explicit decision support tool, to select priority conservation areas. Four approaches with increasing amounts of information about the loggerhead sea turtle are compared, ranging from (1) the broad distribution, (2) multiple habitat types that represent foraging, nesting and inter‐nesting habitats, (3) mark–recapture movement information to (4) telemetry‐derived migration tracks.ResultsWe find that spatial priorities for sea turtle conservation are sensitive to the information used in the prioritization process. Setting conservation targets for migration tracks altered the location of conservation priorities, indicating that conservation plans designed without such data would miss important sea turtle habitat. We discover that even a small number of tracks make a significant contribution to a spatial conservation plan if those tracks are substantially different.Main conclusionsThis study presents a novel approach to improving spatial prioritization for conserving migratory species. We propose that future telemetry studies tailor their efforts towards conservation prioritization needs, meaning that spatially dispersed samples rather than just large numbers should be obtained. This work highlights the valuable information that telemetry research contributes to the conservation of migratory species.

Assessment of the conservation status of the mat-forming lichens Cladonia subgenus Cladina in Italy

Cladina species are likely to suffer the impact of human pressure, resulting in a potential, as well as currently unknown, extinction risk for some of them. In this study, we used herbarium specimen data and literature data combined with geographic information system (GIS)-based analyses to assess the threatened status of Italian Cladina species according to IUCN criteria. A total of 485 records, reported during the period 1833–2013, were evaluated. Biological traits, habitat requirements and distribution patterns were used to infer species extinction risk. Extent of occurrence and area of occupancy have been calculated at the national scale, based on a 2 km × 2 km cell grid. The potential threats for the taxa were assessed using a decision-support protocol in order to set conservation targets for taxa lacking population viability analyses and habitat modelling data. The species were assigned to the IUCN categories mainly using the geographical criterion B, related to species with restricted and fragmented distribution and continuous declining trend, but the species have been tested against the maximum number of criteria for which data were available and/or appropriate. This has provided an opportunity to discuss some basic aspects of the process of lichen red-listing, suggesting some methodological improvements for the mat-forming ones.

Towards systematic conservation planning adapted to the local flow of ecosystem services

Ecosystem services (ES) are increasingly included in conservation assessment worldwide to sustain their ability to fulfill human needs. Due to the instrumental value inherent in ES, priority areas for their conservation should be selected based on their capacity to both ensure an available supply and meet beneficiary demands. However, such a methodology has yet to be developed. Aiming to adapt systematic conservation planning procedures to include ES, we conducted a case study in eastern Canada focusing on ten ES for 16 wetland types. We first delimited the ES supply accessible for human use from the total biophysical supply and mapped demand for each ES. Secondly, we assembled conservation networks targeting the accessible supply and demand and compared them with networks targeting either ES biophysical supply or accessible supply. We found that targeting only ES supply resulted in selecting sites that are not in demand and may be up to three times less efficient in fulfilling the demands of beneficiaries for local flow ES. Thus, not considering demand in ES conservation assessment fails to position reserves where ES supply is likely to be most useful. Setting conservation targets for ES supply and demand could therefore help to achieve ES conservation objectives.

Large-scale conservation planning in a multinational marine environment: cost matters.

Explicitly including cost in marine conservation planning is essential for achieving feasible and efficient conservation outcomes. Yet, spatial priorities for marine conservation are still often based solely on biodiversity hotspots, species richness, and/or cumulative threat maps. This study aims to provide an approach for including cost when planning large-scale Marine Protected Area (MPA) networks that span multiple countries. Here, we explore the incorporation of cost in the complex setting of the Mediterranean Sea. In order to include cost in conservation prioritization, we developed surrogates that account for revenue from multiple marine sectors: commercial fishing, noncommercial fishing, and aquaculture. Such revenue can translate into an opportunity cost for the implementation of an MPA network. Using the software Marxan, we set conservation targets to protect 10% of the distribution of 77 threatened marine species in the Mediterranean Sea. We compared nine scenarios of opportunity cost by calculating the area and cost required to meet our targets. We further compared our spatial priorities with those that are considered consensus areas by several proposed prioritization schemes in the Mediterranean Sea, none of which explicitly considers cost. We found that for less than 10% of the Sea's area, our conservation targets can be achieved while incurring opportunity costs of less than 1%. In marine systems, we reveal that area is a poor cost surrogate and that the most effective surrogates are those that account for multiple sectors or stakeholders. Furthermore, our results indicate that including cost can greatly influence the selection of spatial priorities for marine conservation of threatened species. Although there are known limitations in multinational large-scale planning, attempting to devise more systematic and rigorous planning methods is especially critical given that collaborative conservation action is on the rise and global financial crisis restricts conservation investments.

Setting conservation targets for sandy beach ecosystems

Representative and adequate reserve networks are key to conserving biodiversity. This begs the question, how much of which features need to be placed in protected areas? Setting specifically-derived conservation targets for most ecosystems is common practice; however, this has never been done for sandy beaches. The aims of this paper, therefore, are to propose a methodology for setting conservation targets for sandy beach ecosystems; and to pilot the proposed method using data describing biodiversity patterns and processes from microtidal beaches in South Africa. First, a classification scheme of valued features of beaches is constructed, including: biodiversity features; unique features; and important processes. Second, methodologies for setting targets for each feature under different data-availability scenarios are described. From this framework, targets are set for features characteristic of microtidal beaches in South Africa, as follows. 1) Targets for dune vegetation types were adopted from a previous assessment, and ranged 19–100%. 2) Targets for beach morphodynamic types (habitats) were set using species–area relationships (SARs). These SARs were derived from species richness data from 142 sampling events around the South African coast (extrapolated to total theoretical species richness estimates using previously-established species–accumulation curve relationships), plotted against the area of the beach (calculated from Google Earth imagery). The species-accumulation factor (z) was 0.22, suggesting a baseline habitat target of 27% is required to protect 75% of the species. This baseline target was modified by heuristic principles, based on habitat rarity and threat status, with final values ranging 27–40%. 3) Species targets were fixed at 20%, modified using heuristic principles based on endemism, threat status, and whether or not beaches play an important role in the species' life history, with targets ranging 20–100%. 4) Targets for processes and 5) important assemblages were set at 50%, following other studies. 6) Finally, a target for an outstanding feature (the Alexandria dunefield) was set at 80% because of its national, international and ecological importance. The greatest shortfall in the current target-setting process is in the lack of empirical models describing the key beach processes, from which robust ecological thresholds can be derived. As for many other studies, our results illustrate that the conservation target of 10% for coastal and marine systems proposed by the Convention on Biological Diversity is too low to conserve sandy beaches and their biota.

Impacts of data quality on the setting of conservation planning targets using the species–area relationship

AbstractAimThe species–area relationship (SAR) is increasingly being used to set conservation targets for habitat types when designing protected area networks. This approach is transparent and scientifically defensible, but there has been little research on how it is affected by data quality and quantity.LocationEnglish Channel.MethodsWe used a macrobenthic dataset containing 1314 sampling points and assigned each point to its associated habitat type. We then used the SAR‐based approach and tested whether this was influenced by changes in (i) the number of sampling points used to generate estimates of total species richness for each habitat type; (ii) the nonparametric estimator used to calculate species richness; and (iii) the level of habitat classification employed. We then compared our results with targets from a similar national‐level study that is currently being used to identify Marine Conservation Zones in the UK.ResultsWe found that targets were affected by all of the tested factors. Sample size had the greatest impact, with specific habitat targets increasing by up to 45% when sample size increased from 50 to 300. We also found that results based on the Bootstrap estimator of species richness, which is the most widely used for setting targets, were more influenced by sample size than the other tested estimators. Finally, we found that targets were higher when using broader habitat classification levels or a larger study region. However, this could also be a sample size effect because these larger habitat areas generally contained more sampling points.Main conclusionsHabitat targets based on the SAR can be strongly influenced by sample size, choice of richness estimator and the level of habitat classification. Whilst setting habitat targets using best‐available data should play a key role in conservation planning, further research is needed to develop methods that better account for sampling effort.

Identification of Prime Butterfly Areas in Turkey using systematic conservation planning: Challenges and opportunities

Butterflies are among the most sensitive groups to environmental changes and are prime subjects for many conservation studies. It is essential to conserve butterflies through identifying important sites, namely “Prime Butterfly Areas” (PBAs). Using distribution data of 358 butterfly species, we have identified 65 PBAs in Turkey. Selection of important sites for a single taxon is generally performed using a scoring based system, yet in this study we have adopted Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) approach. The efficiency of SCP approach, the explicit site prioritization process it provides, and the presence of an established SCP system in Turkey has led to this decision. However, regardless of the system used, to secure effective implementation, conceptual and operational subjects should be considered simultaneously. In majority of the cases, the emphasis is given to the methodological details of conservation assessments and effective tools for implementation are not produced. Therefore, while determining PBAs, rather than following the SCP procedure in a strict manner, we have incorporated elements of other site selection approaches into our study for the adoption and use of the outputs by stakeholders. With this study, we discussed how different stages of the PBA identification process (e.g. setting conservation targets, scoring species, determining the initial and optimal site sets and prioritization) should be handled to ensure implementation.

Thesis abstract: On the biogeography of vertebrate body size: ecological and evolutionary insights from assemblage-level patterns

news and update ISSN 1948-6596 Vallecillo, S., Brotons, L. & Osborne, P. E. (under re- view) Geographical variation in ecological con- straints on species distributions along a gradient of population aggregation. Vallecillo, S., Brotons, L. & Thuiller, W. (2009) Dangers of predicting bird species distributions in re- sponse to land-cover changes. Ecological Appli- cations, 19, 538–549. Vallecillo, S., Brotons, L. & Possingham, H. (to be sub- mitted) Minimizing future threats when setting conservation targets for bird species with differ- ent response to fire disturbance. Edited by Nuria Roura-Pascual thesis abstract On the biogeography of vertebrate body size: ecological and evolutionary insights from assemblage-level patterns Miguel Angel Olalla-Tarraga PhD, Departamento de Ecologia, Universidad de Alcala, Alcala de Henares, Spain Current address: Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park campus, Ascot, UK. E-mail: m.olalla@imperial.ac.uk; http://www.bio.ic.ac.uk/research/apurvis/miguel.htm Biogeographers, evolutionary biologists and ecolo- gists have suggested a number of ecogeographical and evolutionary “rules” to describe general trends in the variation of biological attributes across broad spatial and temporal scales. This in- cludes the latitudinal gradient in species richness, as well as Gloger’s, Bergmann’s, Allen’s, Cope’s, Jordan’s, Foster’s and Rapoport’s rules (see Lo- molino et al. 2006 or Gaston et al. 2008 for de- tails). Nonetheless, many of these “rules” were originally proposed with insufficient empirical evi- dence and have reiteratively been called into question. Recent investigations have found excep- tions to the proposed patterns and suggested that most of the “rules” are invalid or would need to be reconsidered (see e.g. Ashton 2001). Under this historical framework, the study of Bergmann’s rule is a paradigmatic example. In 1847, Karl Bergmann suggested that body size plays a major role in determining the geographic distribution of mammals and birds; large-bodied species are favoured in colder climates because of their better heat conservation (lower surface-to- volume ratio). As with the rest of ecological and evolutionary “rules”, both the original pattern and mechanism have not been exempt from criticism. Interestingly, however, after more than 160 years and despite controversies around its validity, Bergmann’s rule still attracts special attention among scientists (Blackburn et al. 1999, Ashton et al. 2000, Meiri & Dayan 2003, Blackburn & Haw- kins 2004, Rodriguez et al. 2006). This stands in contrast to some other “rules” (e.g. Gloger’s, Al- len’s or Jordan’s), whose interest largely remains historic or anecdotic. Such longstanding fascina- tion with Bergmann’s rule is undoubtedly related to the importance of organismal body size in de- termining physiological, ecological and evolution- ary processes. Along these lines, the debate around the generality of Bergmann’s rule has long been fos- tered by Ray’s (1960) and Lindsey’s (1966) pio- neering observations that some ectothermic or- ganisms also displayed intra- and interspecific body size clines as a response to environmental gradients. Apparently, these findings required al- ternative explanations to the ones offered for en- dotherms (Cushman et al. 1993). Since then, re- searchers have tried to identify ecological or evo- lutionary mechanisms accounting for geographic body size gradients in ectotherms. A critical step before searching for underlying mechanisms is indeed examining what the patterns look like in nature. Because Bergmann’s rule was originally formulated for endothermic vertebrates, numer- ous studies have reported the existence of body size gradients in mammals and birds (e.g. Black- burn et al. 1999, Ashton et al. 2000, Meiri & Dayan 2003 and references therein), whereas the geographical variation of body size for many ecto- thermic organisms remains mostly unknown (but see below). frontiers of biogeography 2.1, 2010 — © 2010 the authors; journal compilation © 2010 The International Biogeography Society

A Vulnerability-Based Strategy for Incorporating the Climate Threat in Conservation Planning: A Case Study from the British Columbia Central Interior

We present a vulnerability-based approach for considering climate as a threat in regional conservation planning. The protocol is based on best available understanding of the climate sensitivity of species and systems of concern, has little reliance on climate or ecological change scenarios, and can be executed rapidly. This approach has advantages of (1) not being tied to environmental scenarios with high uncertainty and (2) generating ‘no regrets’ strategies for planning for climate in the context of other threats. The approach was implemented in an ecoregional assessment of the British Columbia Central Interior. Regional strategies to reduce climate vulnerability were applied to set conservation targets and goals in the site-selection process. These had a wide-ranging impact on both freshwater and terrestrial conservation assessments. Selection of high-priority areas based on climate strategies generally (1) increased the number, size, and connectivity of selected areas, (2) included and expanded on areas selected using standard protocols, (3) drew more on moderately favorable areas, and (4) showed similar outcomes for different parts of the domain, but with some selection bias to more northern areas and higher reaches of drainages. These planning outcomes adhere to the ‘no regrets’ goal—enhancing the adaptive capacity of species and systems to multiple threats while taking heed of a climate threat. The resulting plan sets the regional stage for on-the-ground climate-wise strategies by providing for larger, less fragmented, and more connected conservation sites and with restoration as a complementary strategy to reduce ecosystem vulnerability.