Modeling of key variable data needs to consider the complex characteristics of systems in the catalytic cracking unit (CCU) of petroleum refining process, such as slow time-varying behavior, complex dynamic properties, distributed traits, and unknown stochastic noise. To fully capture the dynamics of a linear ordinary dynamic process without introducing incremental components, an adaptive-noise-bound-based set-membership method (RSMI) is proposed in this paper. Under the set-membership framework, the output set is typically represented as an ellipsoid based on the assumed conditions. Firstly, a CARMA model is considered; longer-duration historical data are selected to capture the intricate dynamic characteristics of industrial control loops. Secondly, RSMI introduces am approach to determine allowance factor, optimizing the noise bound for better suitability in real-world noise environments. The adaptive noise bound is achieved by designing an optimization algorithm that seeks the optimal parameters within the optimization framework. The stability of the RSMI algorithm is demonstrated through the application of the Lyapunov method. Next, the RSMI algorithm has been applied in engineering practice and designed for offline and online training stages of control processes. Finally, simulation experiments are performed to model and predict real-time data of flow, pressure, and liquid-level control loops within a catalytic cracking unit. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the RSMI algorithm is validated through two general examples, and frequency domain analysis is performed.
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