Objectives To study the correlation between luteal phase serum progesterone (P4) levels and pregnancy outcome in frozen embryo transfer (FET) cycles and to find out the cut-off level of luteal phase serum P4 which favours successful pregnancy outcome in FET cycles. Material and Methods This prospective cohort study included 100 women undergoing hormone replacement therapy (HRT)-FET cycle at Akanksha IVF Centre from December 2023 to June 2024, fulfilling the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Serum P4 levels were measured for all the patients in the luteal phase (days 21–23) after FET with intramuscular P4 as luteal phase support. Pregnancy outcome was assessed in terms of implantation rate, biochemical pregnancy rate, clinical pregnancy rate (CPR), first-trimester miscarriage rate and ongoing pregnancy rate. Results The most favourable pregnancy outcomes were observed at serum P4 levels 25.1-35 ng/mL. A statistically significant association was seen between the luteal phase serum P4 levels and implantation rate (36.08%), biochemical pregnancy rate (4%), CPR (52%) and ongoing pregnancy rate (42%). According to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the optimal cut-off value for favourable outcomes was determined to be 22.3 ng/mL. However, the analysis also indicated that the luteal phase serum P4 levels did not reliably predict clinical or ongoing pregnancy. Conclusion Larger studies are needed to establish a threshold level of serum P4 in the luteal phase that can differentiate between successful and unsuccessful implantation. However, it is still uncertain whether the issue of unsuccessful implantation can be resolved once it is detected on days 21–23 of the HRT-FET cycle.
Read full abstract