Series Of Input-output Tables Research Articles

Input/Output models for freight transport demand: a macro approach to traffic analysis for a freight corridor

Input Output model are of great interest in the transport sector, especially regarding freight transport demand. These models allow to analyze the cross effects of: political, macroeconomic and transport changes; industrial dynamics; exchange flows between different sites within a reference area, more or less divided into sub-areas. Although very interesting and desirable to be used and disseminated, their use is often hindered by the complexity of the modelling structures that need to describe the interactions with the transport systems and by the difficulty of finding complete and reliable data. In this context, this paper deals with a macro-level Input Output approach for freight demand analysis, which directly relates the quantities of goods transported along a multimodal corridor to the functioning of the economic system. The proposed model is structured on two levels: the first level allows the sectoral production forecasts of the entire economic system based on the exogenous final demand; the second allows the forecast of tons transported, annually and by sector, along the corridor based on the sectoral production estimated at the first level. The two modelling levels are applied to the analysis and forecast of freight traffic demand along the Italian-Austrian cross-border stretch of the Brenner corridor, a fundamental axis of the European transport infrastructure network. The model has been verified and validated on data covering 15 years between 2000 and 2014 using the reclassified time series of Input Output tables and the international trade data for Italy. The model has been used to produce medium-long term forecasts for different economic scenarios. The macro-level point of view and the application for the corridor provide a simple and directly applicable model compared to the complex articulations that characterize the Input Output applications to the transport systems, which can hinder their concrete use as decision support in the planning of transport infrastructures.

Evaluating the role of international trade in the growth of china’s CO2 emissions

International trade matters in assessing the extent of China’s responsibility for CO2 emissions. A determining factor is whether emissions are measured in production or in consumption terms. Based on a series of input-output tables, an empirical analysis is conducted to measure the impact of international trade on China’s emissions growth during the period 1997 to 2007. The authors also measure the impact on emissions of bilateral trade between China and US, European Union and Japan. As the largest of the developing countries, China has a trade surplus that can substantially influence its measured responsibility for emissions. The authors consider some policy implications for international negotiations to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.

China and Brazil Productive Structure and Economic Growth Compared: 1980’s to 2000’s

China and Brazil are two countries with continental dimensions, with differences in availability of natural resources, population sizes, and which have adopted different strategies of economic growth in the past. China has been following consistently a strategy of Export Led Growth (ELG), while Brazil, until the mid 1990s had a strategy based on Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) with a relatively closed economy to the external market; however, recently Brazil has been switching to a more open economy, based on primary goods exports. In the mid 1980s the Gross National Income measured in US$ using purchasing power parity rates (GNI-PPP) of China and Brazil were at approximately the same level, but by the mid 2000s the GNI-PPP of China was around 4 times greater than Brazil’s. By looking at a series of input-output tables and their indicators, like multipliers and linkages, for China (1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007) and Brazil (1985, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007), we analyze, and compare the productive structures, and their changes over time, for these two countries. From the results, we are able to show the differences between these two countries and the results of the development strategies used by them.

Input-output analysis of Vietnamese structural changes (1989-1995)

The pattern and sequencing of economic reform in transition economies have become a major issue of interest since the late 1980s. While Eastern Europe and especially the Soviet Union have experienced difficulties in their transition to a market-based economy, Vietnamese reform has proceeded relatively smoothly and resulted in significant improvement in economic performance and macroeconomic stabilization. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the distinctive features of the gradual reform process in Vietnam, and focused on the empirical study of the significant impacts of structural changes and their characteristics in its transition to a market-oriented economy. This paper then proceeds to a discussion of Vietnamese reform utilizing inter-industry analysis. In this analysis, a series of input-output tables are used, in which 25 sectors grouped into 9 major industries of 1989 and 1995 are classified. These input-output tables demonstrate how the output of each industry is distributed among industries and sectors of the economy. At the same time it shows the input to each industry from other industries and sectors. Derived and listed are the important coefficients and linkage effects for inter-industry relation analysis. The results of inter-industry analysis by using a series of input-output tables are as follows: 1) The ratio of domestic production in total supply of output declined due to increased imports; 2) The share of manufacturing production in domestic output and backward linkage effect to other sectors have declined in the open economy; 3) The agricultural sector has continued to play a greater role in overall production and exports than does the manufacturing sector. We find that the key to achieving sustained development in Vietnam will be the ability of the agriculture sector to yield sufficiently large agricultural surpluses on a consistent basis and then utilize such surpluses for productive investment in the underdeveloped industrial sector. The non-agricultural sector, utilizing this increased investment, must grow fast enough to absorb Vietnam's rowing labor surplus. Thus, to ensure sustained growth, Vietnam mu