The reversible association of transmembrane helices is a fundamental mechanism in how living cells convey information and respond to physiological events. The cardiac calcium transport regulator phospholamban (PLN) is an example of a single-span transmembrane protein that populates a variety of reversible and competing oligomeric states. PLN primarily forms monomers and pentamers in the membrane, where the PLN pentamer is a storage form and the PLN monomer forms a hetero-dimeric inhibitory complex with SERCA. The binding affinity and free-energy of formation of the SERCA-PLN complex in a membrane have not been determined. As is the case for most transmembrane protein interactions, measuring these quantities experimentally is extremely challenging. In this study, we estimated binding affinities by employing in silico alchemical free-energy calculations for all PLN transmembrane alanine substitutions in a membrane bilayer. The binding affinities were calculated separately for the SERCA-PLN complex, a PLN monomer, and a PLN pentamer and compared to in vitro functional measurements of SERCA regulation by the PLN alanine substitutions. Initially, the changes in SERCA inhibition by PLN alanine substitutions were compared to the changes in free energy for the SERCA-PLN complex formed from the PLN monomer. However, the functional data for the PLN alanine substitutions were better explained by the formation of the SERCA-PLN complex directly from the PLN pentamer. This finding points to an inhibitory mechanism favoring conformational selection of SERCA and the interaction of a PLN pentamer with SERCA for 'delivery' of a PLN monomer to the inhibitory site. The implications of these findings suggest that the energetics of helix exchange between homo- and hetero-oligomeric signaling complexes is favored over an intermediate involving a free monomeric helix in the membrane bilayer.