Sequential Choice Research Articles

Simulation of the Stackelberg–Hotelling Game

This work studies the Hotelling game with sequential choice of prices, that is, the Stackelberg–Hotelling (SHOT) game. The game is studied through numerical simulation, which provides the subgame perfect equilibrium solution not only in the unrestricted game but also in the game with reservation cost and with elastic demand. The simulation technique is tested first in the unconstrained game, where the analytical subgame perfect equilibrium solution was already known. Then, the numerical procedure is generalized to cope with the SHOT game with reservation cost and with elastic demand. These enriched formulations of the SHOT game have not been studied so far, so this article provides an exploratory study of them.

Improving Health Outcomes Through Treatment Sequencing Optimization in Multiple Myeloma: A Simulation Model in Transplant-Ineligible Patients.

Patients with multiple myeloma often require multiple treatment lines. The order in which treatments are sequenced has impact on clinical outcomes. This study aimed to estimate progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) with common treatment sequences used in Portugal and the incremental benefit of an optimal sequence in transplant-ineligible patients with multiple myeloma. A state-transition sequential model with a five-health state conceptual structure was developed to simulate and compare survival outcomes between treatment sequences up to four lines of treatments. Data sources included randomized clinical trials and indirect treatment comparisons. A panel of Portuguese hematologists listed four most common treatment sequences and optimal sequence of choice in transplant-ineligible patients. Our simulation estimated an OS between 6.1 and 7.8 years using the most common sequences, with VMP + DRd + Pd + Kd as the most effective (7.8 years). Optimal sequence of choice (DRd + PVd + Kd + Vd) achieved OS of 9.8 years and may extend OS in 2.0-3.7 years vs. most common sequences (26%-61% increase). This benefit was mostly explained by extended PFS in the first line of treatment. Model results demonstrate that choosing the most effective treatment upfront is crucial in delaying disease progression thus yielding better survival outcomes in transplant-ineligible patients. There was a clear survival benefit in using daratumumab-based regimens in first line. This modelling exercise highlights the need to raise awareness around the impact of sequencing strategies to improve patient's outcomes.

Sequential Decision Making in Beach Volleyball-A Mixed-Method Approach.

Which opponent player to sequentially serve to in beach volleyball is crucial given the advantage of the attacking team. The sequential choice theory was tested in three studies by analyzing allocation strategies based on the hot hand belief. Study 1 showed strong belief in the hot hand of national coaches. In Study 2, we analyzed Tokyo Olympics data to explore how base rates and sequential selection rates varied in an elite sample. When base rates of players differed by 0.25, low-performing players were frequently selected. In an experiment with elite athletes, Study 3A demonstrated accurate base-rate-difference recognition but low base-rate-change recognition. Study 3B found that the hot hand is believed to be important but is not often detected. We conclude that players and coaches follow predictions of the sequential choice theory and believe in the hot hand, but do not have a shared understanding of how to use it.

Persistent Impact of Prior Experience on Spatial Learning.

Learning to solve a new problem involves identifying the operating rules, which can be accelerated if known rules generalize in the new context. We ask how prior experience affects learning a new rule that is distinct from known rules. We examined how rats learned a new spatial navigation task after having previously learned tasks with different navigation rules. The new task differed from the previous tasks in spatial layout and navigation rule. We found that experience history did not impact overall performance. However, by examining navigation choice sequences in the new task, we found experience-dependent differences in exploration patterns during early stages of learning, as well as differences in the types of errors made during stable performance. The differences were consistent with the animals adopting experience-dependent memory strategies to discover and implement the new rule. Our results indicate prior experience shapes the strategies for solving novel problems, and the impact of prior experience remains persistent.

An intuitionistic interpretation of Bishop’s philosophy

Abstract The constructive mathematics developed by Bishop in Foundations of Constructive Analysis succeeded in gaining the attention of mathematicians, but discussions of its underlying philosophy are still rare in the literature. Commentators seem to conclude, from Bishop’s rejection of choice sequences and his severe criticism of Brouwerian intuitionism, that he is not an intuitionist–broadly understood as someone who maintains that mathematics is a mental creation, mathematics is meaningful and eludes formalization, mathematical objects are mind-dependent constructions given in intuition, and mathematical truths are experienceable. This paper develops and defends an intuitionistic interpretation of Bishop’s philosophical views.

Evidence for post-decisional conflict monitoring in delay discounting

Choice impulsivity can be measured by offering a sequence of various binary choices between smaller, immediately available rewards and larger, later available rewards. An individual’s delay discount (DD) rate reflects the aggregate decision-making tendency. Given the broad spectrum of disorders associated with a high DD rate, this may be an important transdiagnostic factor. This study aimed to establish whether post-decisional neurophysiological processes reflecting the presence of error monitoring are involved in delay discounting. A large sample (N = 97) was investigated, including 46 females and 51 males. The electroencephalogram (EEG) was recorded during the classic monetary choice questionnaire (MCQ-27). Error-related event-related potentials (ERPs) and event-related oscillations (EROs) following responses were analyzed. A modest relationship between error positivity (Pe) and DD rate was seen centro-parietal, with higher amplitude for low DD individuals after choosing immediate rewards. A robust association was found between DD rate and theta oscillation power increases. This was most prominent in low DD individuals after making an immediate reward choice. Theta power was positively associated with decision (reaction) time, suggesting an association between pre- and post-decisional conflict. No evidence was found for an error-related negativity (ERN) and delta oscillations. This study provides clear evidence for conflict monitoring as a post-decision process in delay discounting. Findings suggest that diminished theta band power bursts and lower Pe amplitude, observed after choosing an immediate reward, reflect the neurophysiological consequence and possibly the cause of steep delay discounting. High DD was characterized by prefrontal hypoactivation and appears to result from affective decision-making.

The Performance of Kaizen Tasks Across Three Online Discrete Choice Experiment Surveys: An Evidence Synthesis.

Kaizen is a Japanese term for continuous improvement (kai ~ change, zen ~ good). In a kaizen task, a respondent makes sequential choices to improve an object's profile, revealing a preference path. Including kaizen tasks in a discrete choice experiment has the advantage of collecting greater preference evidence than pick-one tasks, such as paired comparisons. OBJECTIVE ANDMETHODS: So far, three online discrete choice experiments have included kaizen tasks: the 2020 US COVID-19 vaccination (CVP) study, the 2021 UK Children's Surgery Outcome Reporting (CSOR) study, and the 2023 US EQ-5D-Y-3L valuation (Y-3L) study. In this evidence synthesis, we describe the performance of the kaizen tasks in terms of response behaviors, conditional logit and Zermelo-Bradley-Terry (ZBT) estimates, and their standard errors in each of the surveys. Comparing the CVP and Y-3L, including hold-outs (i.e., attributes shared by all alternatives) seems to reduce positional behavior by half. The CVP tasks excluded multi-level improvements; therefore, we could not estimate logit main effects directly. In the CSOR, only 12 of the 21 logit estimates are significantly positive (p < 0.05), possibly due to the fixed attribute order. All Y-3L estimates are significantly positive, and their predictions are highly correlated (Pearson: logit 0.802, ZBT 0.882) and strongly agree (Lin: logit 0.744, ZBT 0.852) with the paired-comparison probabilities. These discrete choice experiments offer important lessons for future studies: (1) include warm-up tasks, hold-outs, and multi-level improvements; (2) randomize the attribute order (i.e., up-down) at the respondent level; and (3) recruit smaller samples of respondents than traditional discrete choice experiments with only pick-one tasks.

Evidence, causality, and sequential choice

Evidence, causality, and sequential choice

Being moral motivates consumers to work harder and accept challenges

ABSTRACT Research on sequential choice has extensively demonstrated moral licensing across traits such as fairness, compassion, and honesty; however, the impact of moral licensing on industriousness remains unexplored. To establish the robustness of moral licensing, diverse moral traits must be considered. This article explores moral licensing versus consistency in sequential behaviour paradigms, specifically focusing on industriousness across three experiments. Employing a single-factor between-subjects design, the first two experiments reveal that individuals engaged in moral activities are subsequently more likely than those who are not involved in moral activities to accept difficult tasks. The third experiment extends these findings, showing that those involved in moral activities are more inclined than those who are not involved in moral activities to choose products requiring effort. Moreover, it confirms the mediating role of positive moral identity in explaining the connection between past moral actions and subsequent industrious behaviours. In contrast to prior research, which emphasised the potential of moral behaviours leading to subsequent unethical actions, this study contributes to the moral licensing literature by demonstrating the positive influence of past moral actions on subsequent industrious behaviour.

Neurophysiological insights into sequential decision-making: exploring the secretary problem through ERPs and TBR dynamics.

Decision-making under uncertainty, a cornerstone of human cognition, is encapsulated by the "secretary problem" in optimal stopping theory. Our study examines this decision-making challenge, where participants are required to sequentially evaluate and make irreversible choices under conditions that simulate cognitive overload. We probed neurophysiological responses by engaging 27 students in a secretary problem simulation while undergoing EEG monitoring, focusing on Event-Related Potentials (ERPs) P200 and P400, and Theta to Beta Ratio (TBR) dynamics.Results revealed a nuanced pattern: the P200 component's amplitude declined from the initial to the middle offers, suggesting a diminishing attention span as participants grew accustomed to the task. This attenuation reversed at the final offer, indicating a heightened cognitive processing as the task concluded. In contrast, the P400 component's amplitude peaked at the middle offer, hinting at increased cognitive evaluation, and tapered off at the final decision. Additionally, TBR dynamics illustrated a fluctuation in attentional control and emotional regulation throughout the decision-making sequence, enhancing our understanding of the cognitive strategies employed.The research elucidates the dynamic interplay of cognitive processes in high-stakes environments, with neurophysiological markers fluctuating significantly as participants navigated sequential choices. By correlating these fluctuations with decision-making behavior, we provide insights into the evolving strategies from heightened alertness to strategic evaluation. Our findings offer insights that could inform the use of neurophysiological data in the development of decision-making frameworks, potentially contributing to the practical application of cognitive research in real-life contexts.

A time-resolved single-cell roadmap of the logic driving anterior neural crest diversification from neural border to migration stages

Neural crest cells exemplify cellular diversification from a multipotent progenitor population. However, the full sequence of early molecular choices orchestrating the emergence of neural crest heterogeneity from the embryonic ectoderm remains elusive. Gene-regulatory-networks (GRN) govern early development and cell specification toward definitive neural crest. Here, we combine ultradense single-cell transcriptomes with machine-learning and large-scale transcriptomic and epigenomic experimental validation of selected trajectories, to provide the general principles and highlight specific features of the GRN underlying neural crest fate diversification from induction to early migration stages using Xenopus frog embryos as a model. During gastrulation, a transient neural border zone state precedes the choice between neural crest and placodes which includes multiple converging gene programs. During neurulation, transcription factor connectome, and bifurcation analyses demonstrate the early emergence of neural crest fates at the neural plate stage, alongside an unbiased multipotent-like lineage persisting until epithelial-mesenchymal transition stage. We also decipher circuits driving cranial and vagal neural crest formation and provide a broadly applicable high-throughput validation strategy for investigating single-cell transcriptomes in vertebrate GRNs in development, evolution, and disease.

Response times are affected by mispredictions in a stochastic game

Acting as a goalkeeper in a video-game, a participant is asked to predict the successive choices of the penalty taker. The sequence of choices of the penalty taker is generated by a stochastic chain with memory of variable length. It has been conjectured that the probability distribution of the response times is a function of the specific sequence of past choices governing the algorithm used by the penalty taker to make his choice at each step. We found empirical evidence that besides this dependence, the distribution of the response times depends also on the success or failure of the previous prediction made by the participant. Moreover, we found statistical evidence that this dependence propagates up to two steps forward after the prediction failure.

Sequential and Concurrent Mixed-Mode Designs: A Tailored Approach

Abstract Due to rising costs and declining response rates, surveys are increasingly moving from face-to-face interviewing to a self-administered mixed-mode design. Mixed-mode surveys can be conducted using a concurrent or a sequential design. A sequential design in which the web mode is offered first is a common strategy for mixed-mode surveys as it reduces survey costs. However, when deciding which mode choice sequence to use, sample balance should also be considered. One approach to achieving a balanced sample might be to tailor the sequence of the choice of modes, or the mode choice sequence. For this purpose, we use an indicator that assigns the sampled persons to the different mode choice sequences to minimize the variability of response probabilities. In this study, we compare the sample composition achieved with a concurrent and a sequential design. Additionally, we investigate whether indicator-based tailoring of the two mode choice sequences can improve sample composition. We implemented a randomized experiment in the 2021 German General Social Survey (ALLBUS), which surveyed the general population aged 18 and older in private households (N = 5,342) using a mixed-mode design (web and mail). In a first step, respondents were randomly assigned to a concurrent or a sequential design. We find that the two mode choice sequences lead to a similar sample composition. Next, we identify age as the best available single indicator of the variables known before the survey to tailor the mode choice sequence. Our analyses show that a tailored approach based on age improves the sample composition slightly.

Is There a Gender Gap in the Birthday-Number Effect? The Case of Lotto Players and the Role of Sequential Choice.

The literature on lottery gambling shows that players do not select numbers randomly, a phenomenon which is called conscious selection. Mainly, players prefer "small" numbers (less than thirty), either because of the existence of small lucky numbers or because they are victims of the so-called birthday-number effect. Because lotto games are parimutuel, such preferences result in poor ticket choices in terms of achieving below average returns. Using data from Belgium, where approximately 10% of the population plays lotto games every week, this paper extends prior literature by documenting the existence of a gender gap in the birthday-number effect, with women displaying a stronger birthday-number effect than men, as well as the non-persistence of the birthday-number effect (and consecutively of the gender gap) when participants are asked to fill in a second lotto ticket immediately after their first one. The disappearance of the birthday-number effect in sequential choices appears to be driven by response speed, with participants being twice as fast to fill in the second ticket compared to the first one. Moreover, we find that participants who bet on their birthday numbers take significantly more time to complete their ticket. Contrary to prior research, we find that the strength of the birthday-number effect is positively related to deliberative number choices, not intuitive and automatic number choices. Our results are robust to controlling for potential confounding effects including those related to participants' age, education, self-esteem, and superstitious beliefs.

Too much information? Males convey parasite levels using more signal modalities than females utilise.

Elaborate sexual signals are thought to have evolved and be maintained to serve as honest indicators of signaller quality. One measure of quality is health, which can be affected by parasite infection. Cnemaspis mysoriensis is a diurnal gecko that is often infested with ectoparasites in the wild, and males of this species express visual (coloured gular patches) and chemical (femoral gland secretions) traits that receivers could assess during social interactions. In this paper, we tested whether ectoparasites affect individual health, and whether signal quality is an indicator of ectoparasite levels. In wild lizards, we found that ectoparasite level was negatively correlated with body condition in both sexes. Moreover, some characteristics of both visual and chemical traits in males were strongly associated with ectoparasite levels. Specifically, males with higher ectoparasite levels had yellow gular patches with lower brightness and chroma, and chemical secretions with a lower proportion of aromatic compounds. We then determined whether ectoparasite levels in males influence female behaviour. Using sequential choice trials, wherein females were provided with either the visual or the chemical signals of wild-caught males that varied in ectoparasite level, we found that only chemical secretions evoked an elevated female response towards less parasitised males. Simultaneous choice trials in which females were exposed to the chemical secretions from males that varied in parasite level further confirmed a preference for males with lower parasites loads. Overall, we find that although health (body condition) or ectoparasite load can be honestly advertised through multiple modalities, the parasite-mediated female response is exclusively driven by chemical signals.

Pruning the Way to Reliable Policies: A Multi-Objective Deep Q-Learning Approach to Critical Care.

Medical treatments often involve a sequence of decisions, each informed by previous outcomes. This process closely aligns with reinforcement learning (RL), a framework for optimizing sequential decisions to maximize cumulative rewards under unknown dynamics. While RL shows promise for creating data-driven treatment plans, its application in medical contexts is challenging due to the frequent need to use sparse rewards, primarily defined based on mortality outcomes. This sparsity can reduce the stability of offline estimates, posing a significant hurdle in fully utilizing RL for medical decision-making. We introduce a deep Q-learning approach to obtain more reliable critical care policies by integrating relevant but noisy frequently measured biomarker signals into the reward specification without compromising the optimization of the main outcome. Our method prunes the action space based on all available rewards before training a final model on the sparse main reward. This approach minimizes potential distortions of the main objective while extracting valuable information from intermediate signals to guide learning. We evaluate our method in off-policy and offline settings using simulated environments and real health records from intensive care units. Our empirical results demonstrate that our method outperforms common offline RL methods such as conservative Q-learning and batch-constrained deep Q-learning. By disentangling sparse rewards and frequently measured reward proxies through action pruning, our work represents a step towards developing reliable policies that effectively harness the wealth of available information in data-intensive critical care environments.

Formation of the Educational Trajectory: Educational Motives and Choices in the Narratives of Students from Moscow Leading Universities

Motives and choices related to obtaining higher education represent a pressing issue that occupies its own niche in the research agenda of the sociology of education and related scientific disciplines. The purpose of the article is to reveal the specifics of the formation of different types of educational trajectories from the perspective of the motives of primary and secondary educational choices of students from top-rated universities. The research question was formulated around differences in goal setting and motivational and value bases of choice when constructing different types of university trajectories – linear and nonlinear.The collection of empirical information was carried out through interviews with 40 students achieved the higher GPA from Moscow top-rated universities (MSU, MGIMO, HSE, MVTU, etc.). Informants described their subjective educational experience as a sequence of choices they made in the space of higher education.Analysis of students’ narratives made it possible to qualitatively differentiate between linear and nonlinear trajectories, as well as their subtypes, differing in their internal motivation and educational settings. The analysis identified common motivational reasons for choosing a university and majors at the “entrance” to higher education, as well as motives for secondary educational choice specific to different types of university trajectories — motives for keeping and motives for changing a specialty and university. In the informants’ narratives, choosing a university is described as a complex, multimotivated action, in which the motives of prestige, self-development, as well as social and utilitarian motives are highlighted. Educational choices related to keeping or changing the educational trajectory are determined by the desire to avoid risks and having a high level of satisfaction with studies in the case of linear trajectories and the desire to gain new educational experience, obtaining competencies that go beyond the scope of the specialty being studied, as well as environmental factors of the university in the case of non-linear tracks.It is shown that a qualitative research strategy allows the researchers to look at reflected educational choices from the perspective of their semantic content, which is especially in demand due to the growing trend towards individualization of the educational process. It is concluded that empirical knowledge about the motives and methods of shaping the educational trajectories of the current generation of students is necessary for the development of an effective social and educational environment of a modern university, focused on a student-centered approach to learning.

Effort Foraging Task reveals positive correlation between individual differences in the cost of cognitive and physical effort in humans

Effort-based decisions, in which people weigh potential future rewards against effort costs required to achieve those rewards involve both cognitive and physical effort, though the mechanistic relationship between them is not yet understood. Here, we use an individual differences approach to isolate and measure the computational processes underlying effort-based decisions and test the association between cognitive and physical domains. Patch foraging is an ecologically valid reward rate maximization problem with well-developed theoretical tools. We developed the Effort Foraging Task, which embedded cognitive or physical effort into patch foraging, to quantify the cost of both cognitive and physical effort indirectly, by their effects on foraging choices. Participants chose between harvesting a depleting patch, or traveling to a new patch that was costly in time and effort. Participants’ exit thresholds (reflecting the reward they expected to receive by harvesting when they chose to travel to a new patch) were sensitive to cognitive and physical effort demands, allowing us to quantify the perceived effort cost in monetary terms. The indirect sequential choice style revealed effort-seeking behavior in a minority of participants (preferring high over low effort) that has apparently been missed by many previous approaches. Individual differences in cognitive and physical effort costs were positively correlated, suggesting that these are perceived and processed in common. We used canonical correlation analysis to probe the relationship of task measures to self-reported affect and motivation, and found correlations of cognitive effort with anxiety, cognitive function, behavioral activation, and self-efficacy, but no similar correlations with physical effort.

Enhancing sensitivity and versatility of Tn5-based single cell omics

The analysis of chromatin features in single cells centers around Tn5 transposase and exploits its activity to simultaneously fragment target DNA and integrate adapter sequences of choice. This reaction provides a direct readout in the assay for transposase-accessible chromatin in single cells (scATAC-seq) to map open chromatin loci. However, a current limitation is the sparse coverage of these open sites in a given single cell by droplet-based methods. Thus, enhancing Tn5 activity to improve genomic coverage of scATAC-seq or facilitating multi-omics readouts of chromatin features via Tn5 together with the transcriptome is of great interest. Here, we address these issues by optimizing scATAC-seq for an increased number of integrations per cell. In addition, we provide a protocol that combines mapping of histone modification with scRNA-seq from the same cell by targeting Tn5 to antibody-bound chromatin epitopes. Our experimental workflows improve the results obtained from the downstream data analysis and serve to better resolve epigenetic heterogeneity and transcription regulation in single cells.

Dynamic discrete choice model and its estimation algorithm with dynamic inconsistent expected utility in an uncertain situation

Decision making in terms of travel behavior is always dynamic; however, the future behavior of an individual is often inconsistent with their present plan. Therefore, this study aims to incorporate dynamic inconsistency into the expected utility of dynamic sequential choices with a novel structural estimation approach. The incorporation of dynamic heterogeneity into expected utility enables the illustrative modeling of more types of decision making because decision making often involves dynamic inconsistent expected utilities. However, the existing approaches for dynamic discrete choice suppose an equilibrium situation and cannot evaluate these dynamic inconsistent situations. In this study, we propose a novel dynamic discrete choice model with dynamic inconsistency in its expected utility and an empirical algorithm for parameter estimation. We formulate a heterogeneous expected utility as a range constraint near the dynamic consistent expected utility for model identification. Our algorithm, which applies a mathematical program to inequality constraints, enables parameter estimation with dynamic heterogeneity. The proposed model and algorithm were applied to the problem of evacuation departure choice in the city of Rikuzentakata during the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011. The case study demonstrated the validity of introducing dynamic heterogeneity via likelihood comparisons; it was also found that dynamic heterogeneity is distributed around the dynamic consistent expected utility.