Semi-natural Land Research Articles

Broadening the horizon in land use change modelling: Normative scenarios for nature positive futures in Switzerland

Within scenario-based research of social-ecological systems, there has been a growing recognition of the importance of normative scenarios that define positive outcomes for both nature and society. While several frameworks exist to guide the co-creation of normative scenario narratives, examples of operationalizing these narratives in quantitative simulation modelling are still limited. To address this gap, this paper presents an example of how aspects of normative scenarios can be realized within a spatial model of land use and land cover change. This is achieved through a combination of data-driven approaches to encapsulate scenario-specific differences in local and global scale phenomena, as well as iterative expert elicitation to quantify descriptive trends from narratives. This approach is demonstrated with a case study simulating five scenarios of landscape change (three normative and two exploratory) in Switzerland between 2020 and 2060. The resulting maps of future land use and land cover exhibited distinct variations between the scenarios, notably with regard to the prevalence of areas of heterogeneous semi-natural land, such as alpine pastures and grassland, often considered culturally emblematic of Switzerland. While the simulation results were generally consistent with the outcomes expressed in the scenario narratives, following a process of expert feedback, we reflect that there are clear challenges in leveraging such results to elicit further discussions as to the desirability and plausibility of future scenarios. Specifically, the need to summarize spatial simulations in a manner that is easily interpretable and encourages consideration of the broader patterns of change rather than focusing on fine-scale details.

PRELIMINARY MODEL OF POTENTIAL AREAS FOR RESTORATION FOR THE INTER-ANDEAN VALLEY OF CAUCA RIVER (COLOMBIA, SOUTH AMERICA) BASED ON HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELS

Tropical dry forests (TDF) are highly susceptible to land degradation. The inter-Andean Valley of the Cauca River (IVCR) has the most fragmented Colombian dry forests, and their restoration is essential. Here, potential areas for restoration were identified using a habitat suitability modeling (HSM) approach. TDF vascular plants and bioclimatic predictors were used. Species were selected based on threatened status, endemism, and priority level for conservation. Two sets of predictors were chosen using Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Then, with a maximum entropy algorithm, PCA and VIF models were projected for the selected species. These models were evaluated via true skill statistics (TSS) and area under the curve (AUC) statistical metrics. Models with good performance (TSS, AUC, standard deviation, variance) were ensembled, and a preliminary model where areas with suitable bioclimatic conditions for the selected species were generated. Results show that nearly 45 % of the IVCR has suitable conditions for the selected species. Although potential conflicts may arise in areas under permanent or semipermanent crops which represent more than 80 % of the IVCR, cropland mosaics, and natural and seminatural land covers might provide alternative solutions to reduce the land-use conflict. The potential areas for restoration identified in this study may provide a comprehensive framework for environmental impact and regional risk assessments related to the current land use and land cover change dynamics. Also, they may provide relevant information for designing landscape restoration programs as an adaptive strategy toward climate change.

Environmental filtering and landscape composition drive multifaceted diversity of bird assemblages in vineyards

Abstract Agricultural landscapes are productive areas with high biodiversity potential, but their conversion to monocultures and intensification of practices are recognised drivers of bird biodiversity loss worldwide. This challenges the compatibility of agricultural land use with bird conservation, as landscape composition affects both the diversity of bird species and traits and the assembly of bird communities. We address the underlying mechanisms of avian community assembly in vineyards at the plot and landscape levels in relation to landscape composition in one of the major wine producing regions of France. We jointly analyse how the taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic facets of bird alpha and beta diversity respond to a gradient of landscape heterogeneity and test for a non‐random assembly rule. We found that birds tended to avoid vineyard monocultures. There was consistent support for the co‐occurrence of both closely related species and similar functional traits within vineyard plots (namely, phylogenetic and functional clustering, respectively). Landscape composition, both within plots and on a large scale (1000 m), was critical in explaining the occurrence of species and traits within plots. Landscape composition determined a nested pattern of functional and phylogenetic beta diversity from vineyard monoculture to more complex landscapes with increasing seminatural land cover. Synthesis and applications. Landscape composition in seminatural vegetation features significantly influenced both the alpha and beta bird diversity in vineyard‐dominated agricultural landscapes. Interspersed shrubs and woodland can help increase bird abundance and species richness in vineyards, while large‐scale land cover diversity might help promote functional and phylogenetic bird diversity.

A global target for semi-natural land cover within human dominated landscapes?

A global target for semi-natural land cover within human dominated landscapes?

Spatiotemporal changes of coastal land use land cover and its drivers in Shanghai, China between 1989 and 2015

The coastal zone, an ecotone that provides vital diverse ecosystem services, is one of the most ecologically fragile and sensitive areas on the Earth. It has been strongly influenced by human activities and climate change. Thus, understanding the spatiotemporal changes of land use land cover in the coast is an essential prerequisite for the comprehensive evaluation of coastal ecosystems and the promotion of sustainable development. This study investigated the spatial and temporal changes of land use land cover in the coastal zone of mainland Shanghai by using high spatial resolution aerial images, and the associated driving factors obtained from statistical yearbooks between 1989 and 2015. Our results show that the total land area in the coastal zone exhibited an increasing trend at an annual rate of 7.6% on average. The coastal urban land use also experienced substantial increases, with the degree of urban expansion reaching 42.1% in 2015. The coastal urbanization was at the cost of natural and semi-natural lands. Nearly 64.4% of agricultural land, 24.4% of ocean area within the buffer, 84.9% of fresh water, and 92.8% of the tidal flat had been converted to urban land during 1989–2015. The gradient analysis of land use land cover change along the north-to-south coastal line revealed the spatiotemporal patterns of total land, urbanization degree, and natural and semi-natural lands. The majority of the socioeconomic factors influenced land use land cover change in the coastal zone, positively contributing to the increase of public facilities’ use of land, but negatively affecting the freshwater areas. These findings can provide insights for decision-making in the future for coastal land use land cover planning and management in Shanghai.

Landscape ecological risk assessment and transformation processes in the Guinean-Congolese climate zone in Benin Republic

The landscape of Ramsar site 1018 in Benin Republic is increasingly modified by different types of land use. Understanding these changes dynamics is essential for efficient resource management. The aim of the research is to identify the spatial configuration of landscapes using landscape indices, which are the indicators and guide for agricultural policy. Fragstats 4 software helped for computing landscape metrics. Landsat imagery were analysed using Arcmap 10.7.1 and ENVI 5.3 software. The landscape of the Ramsar site is composed by the natural land (forests, savannahs, swamp formations), semi-natural land (plantations), anthropized land (agriculture lands, built-up area), and water land. These ecosystems have changed according to different trends 1990–2000, 2000–2020 and 1990–2020. The agricultural land showed an increasing trend of 143%, following by the built-up area (37%). From 1990 to 2020, a decreasing of 45% has been observed in the savannah land, plantation land (41%), forest land (30%) and swampy land (17%). Also, the Ramsar site ecological context is at medium level despite the increasing of the landscape Ecological Risk Index: 0.1899, 0.2128, and 0.2165 in 1990, 2000, and 2020, respectively. Between 1990 and 2000, the creation process occurred in the built-up area and agriculture land, attrition within forest and plantation classes, dissection in swampy land, aggregation for savannah and shrinkage in water area. From 2000 to 2020, the agriculture land and swampy land continued to experience the same spatial transformation processes respectively. Dissection has observed within the forest land, attrition in water area, and aggregation for built-up area. The perforation process has observed within plantation, and fragmentation in Savannah. Finally, the development of agricultural activities and built-up areas are leading to change in the spatial structure of the Ramsar site landscape. To better conserve the biodiversity of these area, it will be necessary to characterize the still natural ecosystems. This will make it possible to propose a comprehensive management plan that integrates the agricultural and urbanization policy of the government, and the sustainable development goals.

Landscape fires disproportionally affect high conservation value temperate peatlands, meadows, and deciduous forests, but only under low moisture conditions

Landscape fires are a natural component of the Earth System. However, they are of growing global concern due to climate change exacerbating their multiple impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, carbon storage, human health, economies, and wider society. Temperate regions are predicted to be at greatest risk of increasing fire activity due to climate change, where fires can seriously impact important ecosystems for biodiversity and carbon storage, such as peatlands and forests. There is insufficient literature on the background prevalence, distribution, and drivers of fires in these regions, especially within Europe, to assess and mitigate their risks. Using a global database of fire patches based on the MODIS FireCCI51 product, we address this knowledge gap by quantifying the current prevalence and size of fires in Polesia, a 150,000 km2 area comprising a mosaic of peatland, forest, and agricultural habitats in northern Ukraine and southern Belarus. Between 2001 and 2019, fires burned 31,062 km2 of land, and were most frequent in spring and autumn. Although most fires started in agricultural land, fires disproportionately affected natural and semi-natural land cover types, particularly in protected areas. Over one fifth of protected land burned. Coniferous forests were the most common land cover type in protected areas, but fires mostly occurred in meadows, open peatlands (especially fen and transition mires), and native deciduous forests. These land cover types were highly susceptible to fires under low soil moisture conditions, but the risk of fire was low under average or higher soil moisture conditions. Restoring and maintaining natural hydrological regimes could be an effective nature-based solution to increase the resilience of fire-vulnerable ecosystems and support global biodiversity and carbon storage commitments under the United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change and Convention on Biological Diversity.

A spatial model for biodiversity offsetting

In recent years, biodiversity offsetting has been adopted as a conservation strategy in many different countries. Biodiversity offsets are mechanisms used to compensate for ecological impacts resulting from development projects, especially those on non-built land uses. They usually rely on an equivalence principle based on achieving strict equality between the area that is developed and that which is offset. This approach still remains very controversial.This article explores an alternative offset design method, where we look at biodiversity from a functional perspective and conceive public policies that aim to conserve biodiversity by maintaining important structural features of the landscape, not limited to the proportion occupied by each land-use. We develop a spatially explicit land use change model to implement our geometric-based compensation method and we define three different versions of the public compensation policy. We apply the model to real case studies in two French municipalities and we compare the cost and feasibility of compensation under the different public policies. We find that offsetting is easier and cheaper when public policies aim to conserve no more than the targeted semi-natural land area, but this approach has major ecological limits. When considering more complex geometric properties of the landscape (and therefore higher ecological expectations), compensation becomes, on average, more difficult and more expensive. Our work shows how new approaches to ecological compensation could be defined and how models could help select the best options in the field.

U.S. Farmland under Threat of Urbanization: Future Development Scenarios to 2040

Urbanization imperils agriculture by converting farmland into uncultivable impervious surfaces and other uses that limit land productivity. Despite the considerable loss of productive croplands due to historic urbanization in the United States, little is known about the locations and magnitudes of extant agricultural land still under threat of future urban expansion. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit machine learning-based method to predict urban development through 2040 under a business-as-usual scenario and explored its occurrence on existing farmland. We found that if urban development continues at the same pace as that between 2001 and 2016, by 2040, highly developed areas and low-density residential areas will increase by 9.5 and 21 million acres, respectively. This increase would result in 18 million acres of agricultural land lost, fragmented, or compromised (~2% of total agricultural lands in 2016), with the remainder of projected development occurring on other types of natural and semi-natural lands. Of the affected agricultural lands, 6.2 million acres (34%) would be converted to uncultivable urban uses and 12 million acres (66%) to low-density residential uses. Agricultural land losses are projected to be greatest in fast-growing regions such as Texas, California, and the Southeast, and on the outskirts of metropolitan areas across the country, especially in the Midwest, where agricultural lands are more concentrated. The losses as a percentage of existing agricultural lands are projected to be highest along the East Coast, where many urban areas are forecasted to expand onto a limited remaining pool of cultivable lands. These findings can help guide the efforts of local, state, and federal policymakers to reduce land use competition between urban and agricultural systems and mitigate the impacts of projected urban expansion.

Jaguar conservation in the American continent: the role of protected landscape and human-impacted biomes

Introduction: Worldwide, expanding human activities continue to be a threat to many large-bodied species, including jaguars. As these activities continue, it is critical to understand how home range sizes will be impacted by human-modified landscapes. Objective: To evaluate the importance of protected and unprotected land on home-range size across their range. Methods: We used home range data from 117 jaguars in several habitat protection categories and human biome types. We used a Generalized Linear Mixed Model to test home range and spatial overlap with conservation categories and human biomes. Results: Most home-ranges were in Jaguar Conservation Units (62 %), followed by Protected Areas (21 %), Indigenous People's Lands (10 %) and Jaguar Movement Corridors (3 %), where 76 % of the jaguars lived inside one the first three conservation types. However, outside of conserved land, Rangeland, Cropland, Seminatural land and other human biomes were also important (24 % of the individuals). Jaguars in Rangeland, Cropland and Seminatural land had the largest home ranges. Conclusions: Although conservation land was dominant, human-impacted lands appear to play a considerable role in satisfying the spatial requirements of jaguars.

Plant selection for pollinator restoration in seminatural ecosystems

Individual plant species play valuable roles in meeting restoration goals for pollinators. However, the selection of plant species for pollinator restoration is rarely informed using empirical evidence and is usually developed in agroecosystems, which experience frequent human interventions to ensure plant success as compared to seminatural ecosystems. We highlight concepts and future research needs to design planting mixes that fulfill the ecological requirements of pollinators in seminatural ecosystems. Native plants that are attractive to pollinators, increase the stability of pollination services, and provide consistent floral resources across the landscape and growing season should be prioritized in pollinator restoration projects in seminatural ecosystems. Furthermore, condensing criteria of desirable plant traits into a composite score can aid managers in selecting plant species that meet restoration goals. Developing restoration strategies for pollinators on seminatural lands is important for preserving organisms essential for biodiversity maintenance and ecosystem function.

Connectivity, landscape structure, and plant diversity across agricultural landscapes: novel insight into effective ecological network planning.

Natural habitats in rural and urban areas are increasingly fragmented and altered by human impacts that are limiting the animal and plant dispersal process. Fragmentation and isolation can be reversed by restoring landscape connectivity through effective Ecological Network (EN) planning. However, most of the studies analyzing the influence of connectivity and landscape structure on biodiversity are focused on animals, while the understanding of their interplaying role on plant diversity remains limited. We studied the relationships between α and β diversity pattern and landscape structure and connectivity in the nodes of an EN developed in agricultural landscapes, as a part of regional landscape planning framework in Friuli Venezia Giulia region (North-East of Italy). As an innovation, the study aims at parsing the interacting effect of landscape structure, surrounding habitats and nodes, and structural connectivity on EN plant diversity at two specific scales of investigation i.e., the habitat and the node scale. The habitat was the basic ecological unit, while the node was the basic cartographical unit for the EN mapping (multi-habitat or mono-habitat nodes). A total of 443 plant species were collected across 219 sample plots, in 14 different habitats and 87 nodes of the EN. We found that high node connectivity leads to higher species richness (α-diversity) but also increases plant community similarity (i.e., low β-diversity) at both scales. The effect of landscape structure showed differing trends depending on the habitat. In general, landscape composition of semi-natural land cover (i.e., hedgerows, watercourses) showed a positive effect on species diversity as opposed to that of the configuration of anthropogenic elements on both scales. Our results provided crucial information on the landscape processes useful to improving biodiversity conservation by EN. Our findings suggest that i) improving connectivity within ENs favors α plant diversity ii) different habitats have different sensibility to landscape structure iii) semi-natural land cover around nodes improve plant diversity; iv) planning both mono-habitat and multi-habitats nodes, increases the biodiversity conserved therein; v) nodes with more compact shapes are to be preferred.

Designing Urban Green Infrastructures Using Open-Source Data—An Example in Çiğli, Izmir (Turkey)

The city of Izmir (Turkey) has experienced one of the most rapid and fastest urbanization processes in the last thirty years; more than 33 thousand hectares of agricultural and seminatural land have been transformed into urban areas, leading to a drastic reduction of biodiversity and hard deployments of the ecosystem service supply. In this perspective, the potential definition of methodologies to design multifunctional green infrastructures is extremely important to challenge the effects of climate change. The aim of this study is to propose an easy and replicable methodology to design a Green Infrastructure at the neighbourhood level in one of the most important districts of Izmir: Çiğli. To this end, we combined historical land-use change analysis (based on Urban Atlas, Copernicus Land Monitoring Service) with environmental and ecosystem mapping in a Geographic Information System environment (ESRI ArcMap 10.8.1) while creating a composite layer based on unweighted overlays of Imperviousness, Tree Cover Density, and Habitat Quality. Results were used to design the Green Infrastructure of Çiğli and suggest context-based strategies for urban adaptation, including Nature-Based Solutions for core, edge, and urban links.

Effects of landscape structure on abundance and family richness of hymenopteran parasitoids in the olive agroecosystem

Farming systems maintain ecosystem services related to arthropod biodiversity, which need to be understood for its effective conservation. Some of these arthropods may also be enemies of crop pests. It has been shown that farming systems surrounded by other types of natural or semi-natural land covers/uses are less affected by pests. The abundance and richness of hymenopteran parasitoid (HP) families in olive groves were analysed along a gradient of complexity of the landscape surrounding these agroecosystems. The working hypothesis was that landscape structure is related to the abundance and richness of HP families. Through principal component analysis of samples analysed in 15 olive groves during the springs and autumns of 2015 and 2016, we found that a higher richness of HP families is associated to simple landscapes with olive grove predominance and a lower richness in landscapes with higher diversity of land uses. The most abundant families in olive-dominated landscapes were Pteromalidae, Encyrtidae and Eulophidae, and the least abundant were Elasmidae, Eupelmidae, Chrysididae, Platygastridae and Eurytomidae. In the most diverse olive grove landscapes only three families appeared: Mymaridae, the most abundant, and Diapriidae and Signiphoridae with lower abundance. Scelionidae was the most abundant family in all olive landscapes, both simple and complex. The greater richness and abundance of HP in olive-dominated landscapes does not guarantee biological control, but it does provide conservation of arthropod biodiversity as a cross-cutting ecosystem service.

Occurrence and Livestock Depredation Patterns by Wolves in Highly Cultivated Landscapes

Attacks by large predators on livestock are an important driver of conflicts. Consequently, knowledge about where predators occur, where livestock depredation takes place and what factors influence it will aid the mitigation of stakeholder conflicts. Following legal protection, wolves (Canis lupus) in Central Europe are recently spreading to areas dominated by agriculture, bringing them in closer contact with livestock. Here, we analyzed habitat selection and livestock depredation rates of 43 wolves identified by genotyping on the Jutland peninsula, consisting of mainland Denmark and the northernmost German federal state Schleswig-Holstein. Occupancy by resident wolves correlated positively with forest and other non-forested semi-natural land cover (habitat for natural ungulate prey), whereas occupancy by non-resident wolves correlated with increasing forest cover and sheep density. The latter effect likely reflected increased sampling probability of highly mobile dispersers killing livestock. We recorded 565 livestock depredation events (85 in Denmark and 480 in Schleswig-Holstein), of which 42% (55 in DK and 185 in SH) could be assigned to 27 individual wolves based on DNA evidence. Livestock (mostly sheep) were killed by wolves in 16% of the study area. Our results indicate that wolves mostly killed livestock as a context-dependent response, i.e., being dispersers in agricultural areas with low availability of wild ungulate prey and high livestock densities, and not because of behavioral preferences for sheep. Moreover, the livestock depredation was lower in areas with livestock protection measures (implemented in areas with established pairs/packs). We conclude that while wolf attacks on livestock in established wolf territories generally can be reduced through improvement of fences, livestock depredation by non-resident wolves in agricultural areas constitutes a bigger challenge. Albeit technically possible, the economic costs of implementing predator-proof fences and other preventive measures in such pastoral areas infrequently visited by wolves will be considerable. Experiences so far further indicate that lethal removal of identified “problem wolves” may be inefficient in practice.

Effects of Grazing on Water Erosion, Compaction and Infiltration on Grasslands

Seventy-seven percent of all agricultural land is related to livestock, meat and dairy, including grazing land and arable fields used for animal feed production. The effect of livestock on the natural environment is well documented. Many types of research describe these effects on biodiversity. The surface runoff and soil erosion on grasslands and pastures are investigated with smaller intensity since grasslands are one of the two major land uses that are considered as natural or at least semi-natural lands. Still, mainly due to overuse, grazing on sloping pasture lands can cause severe soil damage, the trampling can cause compaction, compaction decrease infiltration and thus increase runoff and, consequently, soil loss. There are several consequences of the grazing pressure that cause water erosion and surface runoff above the acceptable limit, such as a dramatic decrease in grass densities and/or above-ground bio-mass, compaction, animal tracks, etc. Related research started as early as 1911 and continues until today. There are several methods to analyse the consequences of grazing pressure, e.g., in situ rainfall simulations, infiltration and soil resilience measurements, modelling of runoff, soil loss and infiltration, calculation of ecological costs, etc. Furthermore, most importantly, scientists are investigating the possibilities for improvement of the achieved unstable grazing system due to bad management. Numerous publications have been publishing results on positive changes with the removal of grazing livestock from the grasslands. However, since the socio-economic situation is changing on Earth, more people requiring the products of the pastures, an optimal grazing solution is greatly needed. One of the solutions can be the planning of the optimal animal unit per area, based on the expected grass yields. However, due to the big differences in yields, caused by the greatly unreliable weather, the solution for the future must be a multifunctional agriculture and a flexible land use.

Trends in Lakeshore Zone Development: A Comparison of Polish and Hungarian Lakes over 30-Year Period.

(1) Background: This paper presents the land use and land cover change processes in the lakeshore zone in Poland and Hungary during 30 years. (2) Methods: Land use and land cover (LU/LC) maps were prepared using topographic maps and orthophotograph maps scaled 1:10,000. The study based on GIS data and field research. (3) Results: A significant increase in the area occupied by tourist and recreational infrastructure and forests in the lake shore zone was found in both countries. In Poland, this increase occurred mainly at the expense of arable land, which was a positive phenomenon. In Hungary, however, the main threat to the lakeshore zone was the increase of built-up area at the expense of semi-natural area. While the decrease in arable land was positive from an environmental point of view, the main threat to the Hungarian lake shore zone was the increase in built-up areas at the expense of semi-natural land. The results showed a positive correlation between the area of urbanized land and the area occupied by tourist and recreational buildings on the Polish lakes. There was no such correlation at the Hungarian lakes. (4) Conclusions: The most beneficial change in land cover for the lakes was the increase in forest area in the lake shore zone in both countries studied. Taking into account the results of previous studies, three main trends of changes in land cover and land use in the lakeshore zone were identified. These results shed new light on the problem of land use around lakeshores.

Optimal distributions of central-place foragers: honey bee foraging in a mass flowering crop

AbstractThe ideal-free distribution and central-place foraging are important ecological models that can explain the distribution of foraging organisms in their environment. However, this model ignores distance-based foraging costs from a central place (hive, nest), whereas central-place foraging ignores competition. Different foraging currencies and cooperation between foragers also create different optimal distributions of foragers, but are limited to a simple two-patch model. We present a hybrid model of the ideal-free distribution that uses realistic competitive effects although accounting for distance-based foraging, and test it using honey bees (Apis mellifera L.) foraging in canola fields (Brassica napus L.). Our simulations show that foragers maximizing efficiency (energy profits ÷losses) prioritize distance to their aggregation more than those maximizing net-rate (energy profits ÷time), and that social foragers move to more distant patches to maximize group benefits, meaning that social foragers do not approach an ideal-free distribution. Simulated efficiency-maximizers had a hump-shaped relationship of trip times with distance, spending shorter amounts of time in both nearby and far-away patches. Canola fields were far more attractive to simulated foragers than semi-natural areas, suggesting limited foraging on semi-natural lands during the bloom period of canola. Finally, we found that the observed distribution of honey bees in canola fields most closely resembled the optimal distribution of solitary efficiency-maximizers. Our model has both theoretical and practical uses, as it allows us to model central-place forager distributions in complex landscapes as well as providing information on appropriate hive stocking rates for agricultural pollination.

Assessing the Accuracy of MODIS MCD64A1 C6 and FireCCI51 Burned Area Products in Mediterranean Ecosystems

The catastrophic impact of wildfires on the economy and ecosystems of Mediterranean countries in recent years, along with insufficient policies that favor disproportionally high funding for fire suppression, demand a more comprehensive understanding of fire regimes. Satellite remote sensing products support the generation of relevant burned-area (BA) information, since they provide the means for the systematic monitoring of large areas worldwide at low cost. This research study assesses the accuracy of the two publicly available MODIS BA products, MCD64A1 C6 and FireCCI51, at a national scale in a Mediterranean country. The research period covered four fire seasons, and a comparison was conducted against a higher-resolution Sentinel-2 dataset. The specific objectives were to assess their performance in detecting fire events occurring primarily in forest and semi-natural lands and to investigate their spatial and temporal uncertainties. Monthly fire observations were processed and analyzed to derive a comprehensive set of accuracy metrics. We found that fire size has an impact on their detection accuracy, with higher detection occurring in fires larger than 100 ha. Detection of smaller (<100 ha) fires was favored by the 250 m FireCCI51 product, but not from MCD64A1 C6, which exhibited less than 50% detection probability in the same range. Their spatial estimates of burned area exhibited a fairly satisfactory agreement with the reference data, reaching an average of 78% in detection rate. MCD64A1 C6 exhibited a more consistent spatial performance overall and better temporal accuracy, whereas FireCCI51 did not substantially outperform the former despite its finer resolution. Additional research is required for a more rigorous assessment of the variability of these burned area products, yet this research provides further insight and has implications for their use in fire-related applications at the local to the national scale.

Accuracy estimation of two global burned area products at national scale

In this work we perform an initial assessment of the accuracy of two publicly available MODIS burned area products, MCD64A1 C6 and MODIS FireCCI51, at national scale in a Mediterranean region. The research focused on two fire seasons for the years 2016 and 2017 and comparison was performed against a higher resolution Sentinel-2 dataset. The specific objectives were to assess their capabilities in detection of fire events occurring primarily in forest and semi-natural lands and also to investigate their spatial uncertainties. The analysis combined monthly fire observations and accuracy metrics derived from error matrices. Satisfactory performance was achieved by the two products in detection of larger fires (> 100 ha) whereas their spatial performance exhibited good agreement with the reference data. MCD64A1 C6 exhibited a more consistent performance overall and the 250 m FireCCI51 product exhibited relatively higher sensitivity in detection of smaller (<100 ha) fires. Although additional work is required for a more rigorous assessment of the variability of these burned area products, our research has implications for their usability in fire-related applications at finer scales.